Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 05 Jul 2022 21:21

Shanmukh wrote: PS: I find Lavrov's and Zakharova's Russian the easiest to follow, Putin's somewhat harder [he often speaks in a monotone when he is speaking abroad], and Kadyrov the hardest. Anyone else shares my experience?

I have a working knowledge of Russian and agree. I can follow Zakharova in Russian, not Putin. Russian diplomats have the advantage of being in their positions for years, though in the case of Lavrov, my impression is age is getting to him and he's not as articulate and suave as he once was.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 05 Jul 2022 21:46

A simple data point: India will chair the G-20 in 2023, followed by Brazil in 2024.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 05 Jul 2022 22:11

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... sdxe97AQ4Q ---> Russia says it will support UNSC permanent membership for India and Brazil, but Not for Germany and Japan.

https://twitter.com/OsintTv/status/1544 ... sdxe97AQ4Q ---> If Russia ready to support permanent UNSC seats for India, then Pakistan govt should reconsider the idea of buying cheap oil from Russia: Pak media.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 05 Jul 2022 22:20

https://twitter.com/srdmk01/status/1543 ... sdxe97AQ4Q ---> Germany’s Natural Gas Reserves to Last One or Two Months, if Russia Cuts Exports — Federal Network Agency.

kit · Post by **kit** » 06 Jul 2022 00:26

https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/so ... -producing

So Much For Sanctions: Russia Is Producing More Oil Than Prior To Its Invasion Of Ukraine
“Asia has saved Russian crude production. Russia, instead of falling further, is almost close to its prepandemic levels.”

most of the article seems behind a paywall though..

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 06 Jul 2022 05:06

Boris Johnson is deep in another crisis. This time, it really could be game over

Health Secretary Sajid Javid said he could not "in good conscience" continue. Finance minister Rishi Sunak also resigned, saying that people "rightly expect government to be conducted properly, competently and seriously."

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 06 Jul 2022 05:16

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/sta ... 6614258689

Good Morning from #Germany, which is falling as an economic powerhouse on a global scale. Germany’s trade surplus is gone. Foreign trade balance came in at MINUS €1bn in May, which is the 1st negative print since 1991 due to its energy problems & weakness in manufacturing.

kit · Post by **kit** » 06 Jul 2022 12:12

NRao wrote:https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/sta ... 6614258689

Good Morning from #Germany, which is falling as an economic powerhouse on a global scale. Germany’s trade surplus is gone. Foreign trade balance came in at MINUS €1bn in May, which is the 1st negative print since 1991 due to its energy problems & weakness in manufacturing.

Germanys trade surplus mostly based on cheap gas and oil., that that away, most of the middle and small-scale industries would lock up first...larger ones would be barely afloat and as the gas prices go north they would also sink., best of luck with their LNG plans

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 06 Jul 2022 15:58

^^^^^

A **great** opportunity for Indians to scoop up some great CNC/milling/tooling/..... companies or at least tools. But, .............

______________________________

Meanwhile, a non-existent tail wagging a non-existent dog:

https://twitter.com/baronichitas/status ... 8103910402

Turkey has now issued a formal extradition request for the wanted members of the PPK in hiding in Sweden and Finland. It expects them to comply.

- Ministry of Justice

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 06 Jul 2022 19:00

NRao wrote:Farmer's and citizen protests in the Netherlands (not being reported anywhere), and strikes by workers in O&G in Norway, has to impact both food and energy sectors in Europe.

Supposedly, the Dutch gov are proposing shutting down 30% farms to meet climate change numbers, so the protests in Netherlands.

Nord Stream halts gas from Russia for 2 weeks, for maintenance.

Big hurt arriving at terminal 1. Ahead of schedule.

https://twitter.com/backtolife_2023/sta ... 2012743681

Video of a Dutch policeman pointing a gun at Dutch farmer during a protest!!

Dutch Police with guns aimed terrorising protesters.
Source: https://t.me/thevoiduk/13107

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 06 Jul 2022 19:29

NRao wrote:
NRao wrote:Farmer's and citizen protests in the Netherlands (not being reported anywhere), and strikes by workers in O&G in Norway, has to impact both food and energy sectors in Europe.

Supposedly, the Dutch gov are proposing shutting down 30% farms to meet climate change numbers, so the protests in Netherlands.

Nord Stream halts gas from Russia for 2 weeks, for maintenance.

Big hurt arriving at terminal 1. Ahead of schedule.
https://twitter.com/backtolife_2023/sta ... 2012743681

Video of a Dutch policeman pointing a gun at Dutch farmer during a protest!!

Dutch Police with guns aimed terrorising protesters.
Source: https://t.me/thevoiduk/13107

Empty dutch grocery stores. I do not live in Europe, so unsure how prevalent this is

https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/15 ... 2951469056

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 06 Jul 2022 21:40

Europe is OK for the moment, there is inflation of groceries and regular consumables, mostly driven by oil & gas prices which increase transportation costs for retail and fuel costs for poorer sections who drive to work. Its summer euphoria after 2 years of covid restrictions so most people are in the mood to ignore prices, dig into savings and go have some sun n fun. But the pinch will starting biting very soon, even before the vacations are over. September is when it will fully hit home and producer price increases across the board will reflect in consumer prices. In October people will be on the streets since a cold hard winter will be looming. IMHO onree...

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 06 Jul 2022 23:37

Let’s Use Chicago Rules to Beat Russia

We HAVE regressed.

Why the U.S. adversary is a lot like Al Capone

By Eliot A. Cohen

About the author:

Eliot A. Cohen is a contributing writer at The Atlantic, a professor at The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, and the Arleigh Burke chair in strategy at CSIS. From 2007 to 2009, he was the Counselor of the Department of State. He is the author most recently of The Big Stick: The Limits of Soft Power and the Necessity of Military Force.

.................That means, in part, acting thoughtfully but with the utmost effort, understanding that war is more bar fight than chess game. Or, to put it in the simpler words of Jim Malone, Eliot Ness’s counselor in The Untouchables, “You wanna know how to get Capone? They pull a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue. That’s the Chicago way! And that’s how you get Capone.”

...............................

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 06 Jul 2022 23:51

^^^ What goes Eliot Cohen’s father’s to give that advice while sitting in the US? After all he doesn’t have to bear the real consequences of his advice, it’s the Oiropeans that have to do that…. Neither is he signing up to serve…

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 07 Jul 2022 00:07

EUROPE NEWS - France’s EDF to be fully nationalized, prime minister says

UK's fourth-largest household energy supplier EDF nationalised by the French

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 07 Jul 2022 07:49

Putin’s War Throws Crucial EU Vote on ‘Green’ Gas Into Doubt

Ukraine pressure on EU.

European lawmakers are under pressure from Ukraine to block plans to treat gas as a green asset, plunging into serious doubt an EU Parliament vote that not long ago seemed set to endorse the proposal.

............

Behind paywall:

Natural Gas Soars 700%, Becoming Driving Force in the New Cold War

Citi Says Oil May Collapse to $65 by the Year-End on Recession

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 07 Jul 2022 14:40

Boris Johnson all set to resign. One barking dog who made more trips to Kiev to meet his buddy Z is now on his way out. This is just beautiful

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 07 Jul 2022 17:49

dnivas wrote:Boris Johnson all set to resign. One barking dog who made more trips to Kiev to meet his buddy Z is now on his way out. This is just beautiful

That Boris stepped down is not a surprise. However, in his resignation Rishi Sunak mentioned that he was unable to seek common grounds with Boris on a strategy to tackle the deplorable **state the UK economy** is in.

The UK economy is sinking. And, Boris did not help it by being the lead attack dog on the Russo-Ukraine front. From BBC:

Meanwhile, Russian foreign ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova told reporters Mr Johnson had been "hit by a boomerang launched by himself", adding that the moral of the story was "do not seek to destroy Russia".

The end has yet to come.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 07 Jul 2022 18:31

dnivas wrote:Boris Johnson all set to resign. One barking dog who made more trips to Kiev to meet his buddy Z is now on his way out. This is just beautiful

Boris was largely pro-India and to some extent (relative to the others at least) so is the conservative party. Tories moving towards chaos and collapse is bad for India, with the loony, rabid anti-India and pro-Paki leftists of Labour waiting to pounce. But of course, all that really matters is Russian H&D in their petty quarrels.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 07 Jul 2022 18:37

What did BoJo do to merit a pro-India sticker?

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 07 Jul 2022 18:40

Bart S wrote:
dnivas wrote:Boris Johnson all set to resign. One barking dog who made more trips to Kiev to meet his buddy Z is now on his way out. This is just beautiful
Boris was largely pro-India and to some extent (relative to the others at least) so is the conservative party. Tories moving towards chaos and collapse is bad for India, with the loony, rabid anti-India and pro-Paki leftists of Labour waiting to pounce. But of course, all that really matters is Russian H&D in their petty quarrels.

a correct statement would be less anti indian than the rest of folks..he was indifferent on cashmere but did arm twist a bit on vaccines..i do agree tories are better...the labour is baki and peaceful appeasing folks..who have hindutva bad..modi bad ..kinda mindset

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 07 Jul 2022 18:49

If the public spanking Dr SJ has given to Liz Truss is any indication, the present government could care less and won't budge no matter who comes to power in Ukstan. The next PM will realise that pretty quick, tory or labour. Wagging the BBC rag no longer works.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 07 Jul 2022 18:54

IMO, the next person to push out should be von der Leyen. No idea how one can do that.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 07 Jul 2022 19:19

Cyrano wrote:If the public spanking Dr SJ has given to Liz Truss is any indication, the present government could care less and won't budge no matter who comes to power in Ukstan. The next PM will realise that pretty quick, tory or labour. Wagging the BBC rag no longer works.

Truss is a joke. She does not know the difference between the Black sea and the Baltic. If UK is indifferent towards us, that's ok. Labor is a real danger with its Pak supporters and MPs creating trouble at every opportunity.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 07 Jul 2022 19:26

Gawd I can't stand Wander Lying! She has played the glass ceiling + Mansplaining cards very well to hide her sheer incompetence. No one dares touch her now. Was immediately co-opted by US & UK. The only thing that can bring her down is a solid corruption scandal like kick backs from Ukra-een, IMO nothing else can touch her. But she maintains an outwardly frugal image... Somewhat of a mystery actually.

John · Post by **John** » 07 Jul 2022 20:28

Bart S wrote:
dnivas wrote:Boris Johnson all set to resign. One barking dog who made more trips to Kiev to meet his buddy Z is now on his way out. This is just beautiful
Boris was largely pro-India and to some extent (relative to the others at least) so is the conservative party. Tories moving towards chaos and collapse is bad for India, with the loony, rabid anti-India and pro-Paki leftists of Labour waiting to pounce. But of course, all that really matters is Russian H&D in their petty quarrels.

Boris is actually seen as more Pro Russian than his piers, he has received more $$ from Russian groups and maintains a close relationship with few Oligarchs. I can't speak for next PM and how they will impact the conflict but if I am a Russian Oligarch owning a mansion in UK I would sweating it out right now.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 07 Jul 2022 20:35

With friends like the Poles....

Ukraine's gold and foreign exchange reserves will be stored in Poland until the situation in the country normalizes, - Nikolaychuk. The deputy head of the National Bank did not specify how much gold reserves Ukraine had left, nor did he say what kind of valuables and in what way they were transferred to Poland for storage.

https://t.me/loordofwar/25366

The loot of whatever is left has started...

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 07 Jul 2022 20:56

Cyrano wrote:If the public spanking Dr SJ has given to Liz Truss is any indication, the present government could care less and won't budge no matter who comes to power in Ukstan. The next PM will realise that pretty quick, tory or labour. Wagging the BBC rag no longer works.

Correct in that the home front is what matters. It would be net positive that there are more Pakis in the UK instead of next door.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 07 Jul 2022 21:16

Rishi Sunak's letter all but says UK economy is tottering on the brink and BoJo couldn't care less therefore he is quitting to avoid having to take responsibility for the ship sinking.

The most nervous person in the world right now is elensly. They egged him on to fight the bear but when he turns around all his friends are cardboard cutouts falling one by one!

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 07 Jul 2022 22:20

Bart S wrote:
dnivas wrote:Boris Johnson all set to resign. One barking dog who made more trips to Kiev to meet his buddy Z is now on his way out. This is just beautiful
Boris was largely pro-India and to some extent (relative to the others at least) so is the conservative party. Tories moving towards chaos and collapse is bad for India, with the loony, rabid anti-India and pro-Paki leftists of Labour waiting to pounce. But of course, all that really matters is Russian H&D in their petty quarrels.

Pro India, but we are paying more for petrol and every other commodity. Inflation is making people hungrier. Must be very nice of you to have a good job and being able to afford petrol and expensive food.

according to UN, an extra 70 million people are famished because of food inflation on account of the conflict. Guess where some of them are. Again the pro india party is not changing , just the leader right but nice try at diversion, If the party loses, that is their in the next general election that is their fault.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 07 Jul 2022 22:27

Cyrano wrote:Rishi Sunak's letter all but says UK economy is tottering on the brink and BoJo couldn't care less therefore he is quitting to avoid having to take responsibility for the ship sinking.

The most nervous person in the world right now is elensly. They egged him on to fight the bear but when he turns around all his friends are cardboard cutouts falling one by one!

Also there was supposed to be a summer speech that BoJo was pushing for with Rishi. based on an insider article, seems Bojo wanted to use a lot of flatulism in that speech on the supposed state of the Not GB [NGB]. Rishi dd not like that one bit and escaped the first chance out.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 07 Jul 2022 22:46

dnivas wrote:
Bart S wrote:
Boris was largely pro-India and to some extent (relative to the others at least) so is the conservative party. Tories moving towards chaos and collapse is bad for India, with the loony, rabid anti-India and pro-Paki leftists of Labour waiting to pounce. But of course, all that really matters is Russian H&D in their petty quarrels.
Pro India, but we are paying more for petrol and every other commodity. Inflation is making people hungrier. Must be very nice of you to have a good job and being able to afford petrol and expensive food.

according to UN, an extra 70 million people are famished because of food inflation on account of the conflict. Guess where some of them are. Again the pro india party is not changing , just the leader right but nice try at diversion, If the party loses, that is their in the next general election that is their fault.

To recap, you responded with personal glee that Boris Johnson was taken down, purely because of his support for Zelensky. It's clear that you support Russia over Ukraine, and I am also making the assumption that you are Indian and not Russian. There are also others like you have been consistently batting for the Ukraine, resulting in many back and forth arguments on behalf of either Russian or Ukraine, that go beyond a simple rational discussion of the war, strategy and tactics etc.

Not sure what your point is in your latest post quoted above (unless you are somehow suggesting that Boris Johnson's downfall will address fuel prices and inflation in India), but I will reiterate mine. This is an Indian forum for an Indian POV and Indian interest above all else. This incessant cheer-leading for either side (in a manner that used to be called MUTU on BRF earlier when it came to those doing it for the US) engaged in by some posters is tiresome and annoying. I couldn't care less if either side in conflict wipes out the other as long as Indian interests are not harmed.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 08 Jul 2022 00:15

Bart S ji,
Why do you consider India can afford to take such a stand off posture wrt to this conflict? Are we wrong in thinking that one side sees India as a tool or at best an accomplice for its own ends and the other side is atleast respectfully neutral to if not a genuine friend of India?

Some of us here, I for one, am rooting unabashedly for Russia because if the west gets away with this in Ukraine it will be a once more proven template to destabilize any country they don't get along with, by covert and overt means. It won't be long before India will be constrained severely by this West to play a bit role in whatever neocon script that's in vogue.

In the long term I believe India's interests will be better served in a non bi-polar world and a strong Russia is important for our own rise which has just started.

Of course you may hold different views, in which case do post them, just saying we are annoying, MUTU etc is perhaps being..... lazy ?

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 08 Jul 2022 00:36

Bart S wrote:
dnivas wrote:
Pro India, but we are paying more for petrol and every other commodity. Inflation is making people hungrier. Must be very nice of you to have a good job and being able to afford petrol and expensive food.

according to UN, an extra 70 million people are famished because of food inflation on account of the conflict. Guess where some of them are. Again the pro india party is not changing , just the leader right but nice try at diversion, If the party loses, that is their in the next general election that is their fault.
To recap, you responded with personal glee that Boris Johnson was taken down, purely because of his support for Zelensky. It's clear that you support Russia over Ukraine, and I am also making the assumption that you are Indian and not Russian. There are also others like you have been consistently batting for the Ukraine, resulting in many back and forth arguments on behalf of either Russian or Ukraine, that go beyond a simple rational discussion of the war, strategy and tactics etc.

Not sure what your point is in your latest post quoted above (unless you are somehow suggesting that Boris Johnson's downfall will address fuel prices and inflation in India), but I will reiterate mine. This is an Indian forum for an Indian POV and Indian interest above all else. This incessant cheer-leading for either side (in a manner that used to be called MUTU on BRF earlier when it came to those doing it for the US) engaged in by some posters is tiresome and annoying. I couldn't care less if either side in conflict wipes out the other as long as Indian interests are not harmed.

Again I dont want to create conflict among our own people. The west has been undermining India for who knows how long. The Leela situation, zubair all have hallmarks of western influence operation [why the fck is german ambassador talking abt zubair today]

so if the west is brought down multiple pegs I am all for it and if it takes Russia to do it and grind it in their face, I am super all for it. Yes I am gleeful that the one of the bastions of lap dog syndrome and western imperialism's govt is brought down, I am way more than happy. This conflict has been unnecessarily extended coz of the amt of money sent and weapons sent [just 6 months ago the US was howling abt the 30K bounty fake story]. I mean the hypocrisy of the fake hegemon is just shocking that they talk about freedumb and democracy and support elensky who is the anti thesis of freedumb and democracy.

So i apologize if i said something rude to you. I didnt mean it. but I am anti west imperialism and I or my family dont want to die coz of a nuke way the way things are going.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 08 Jul 2022 00:43

I also wanted to add one small point. You said "I couldn't care less if either side in conflict wipes out the other as long as Indian interests are not harmed."

The problem is Indian interests are being harmed
1. Higher oil prices
2. Higher non oil commodity prices
3. Higher Food prices
4. Huge chance of a nuke conflict that could result in Millions of Indians dead
5. Political meddling by western good for nothing and deep state forces

So yes as of today our interests are substantially harmed and if some of the western neocons keep fighting for their own political survival or fight each other , then I am all for it. Hopefully with govts falling and ppl rioting , the NGO's meddling in India are slightly distracted and we get more time to work on our defenses.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 08 Jul 2022 01:09

Alright, Boris Johnson is not preachy like the gnome Corbin, when it comes to India. If he wants to waste british tax money on ukraine, that is between him his tax payers and Putin. But what we can’t afford is a second big disruption in military parts and half-finished contracts when it comes to Russia. We had a terrible phase with USSR collapse. But then pakis as the primary antagonist were also busted up at that time. So we had breathing space. Contrast that with a primed up china of today, and we are in a bad scene.

We might fervently hope Kalyanis, Tatas, Adanis, SSS, Tonbo etc will pick up that shortfall if Russia goes into chaos. But truth is It will be gleefully lapped up by even more predatory western OEMs and their offsets will include preachy BS too (like how Germany won’t let H&k sell small arms but will license same to pakis).

So as EAM Jaishankar said many times, the earlier this war winds down and talks start the better for India. In that sense Boris-bhai was not exactly helpful, because he followed the harmful warmongering tradition of British PMs (Gladstone, Churchill, Thatcher and Blair comes to mind) who loves to manipulate a bigger power (US) to escalate situation against another power, when all sides seem to be on verge of talks. But that doesn’t mean Boris is going to be replaced by a more pro-India or pro-peace guy.

All said and done, ukraine military thread is a disappointment. Very small tactical situations are being conflated by posters on both sides of this argument. Like “oh look, one side put a hole in a truck, all is lost on the other side”, while the other side says the hole was already there as an aesthetic choice <facepalm>. The discussions around snake island over past two days is one such.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 08 Jul 2022 01:17

Interesting "Honest" Video from France 24. A lot of videos were mostly Bad Russians but somehow we got one honest video out of them. so far DW has also been a disappointment. The blatant one was a video of Ukr shelling Donetsk and captions say that dead civilians are because of Russian bombing.

Note from 1:10, shows Civilians not wanting to become 'hostages'

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 08 Jul 2022 02:35

I stopped watching France24 sometime mid March when their anti-Russia slant got unbearable. But since a week or so, I'm seeing a slow but clear shift in the French press towards somewhat even treatment. I see it as a sign of shift in the French position.

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 08 Jul 2022 03:12

This is an excellent interview on YT "The Duran" show (Alexander Mercouris and Alec Christoforou). The guest is Larry Johnson, a former CIA agent. Johnson explains why (in his opinion) the West (NATO, US, EU) is screwing up really badly and may in fact be doing themselves permanent damage -- not to mention the danger of nuclear war. He explains why this war was in fact started by US neocons, who pretty much forced Russia to invade Ukr.

Luhansk, another narrative bites the dust

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 08 Jul 2022 15:13

A massive farmers' protest is spreading all across Europe, and the media is pretty much silent.
Desi media outlets, including ToI-let, have no clue either.

GoI should send chai-biskoot to the hungry Euro-farmers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jn86w3WXg9g