Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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KL Dubey
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by KL Dubey »

NRao wrote: I would be interested in what this "bigger picture" is.
The "bigger picture" is that the article did not offer much analysis beyond "neocons being frustrated". Well, naturally they would be frustrated by any such initiative tying India, Iran, and Russia together for energy security - duh. If the neocons are frustrated, the PRC should be even more frustrated since this once again upstages Xi's ObOr/C-Pec/whatever else he has that nobody wants to see.
* More pertinent to this thread, both the Neocons and CCP have a common goal: to cut India to size. They (not nations) may or may not act in concert, but certainly, they will not get in each other's way. (After they deal with their common enemy, they will turn on each other - the historically time teated Islamic way.)
We know all that. I was referring specifically to the Adani affair. There is no need to argue about my statement since this is not Adani thread.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Behind paywall. Robert Kagan, Victoria Nuland's husband, and the current head of the Neocons, is arguing the war in Ukraine must go on. That the West has to win.

A Free World, If You Can Keep It
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Retired French historienne Annie Lacroix-Riz specialising in contemporary history corroborates everything we say here about Ukraine war. Offers insights on US-DE perfidy wrt Russia and their manipulation of Ukraine from WW1 era to present day, and why Russia will never let go of it.

https://youtu.be/slfmANDzWO4

All in French. But it's good to know that there are other seasoned experts who share the same views as most of us here and we are not in some echo chamber of our own making.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

From the strategy thread:
Roop wrote:
NRao wrote:All nations that want a seat at the high table, will have assets analyzing this once-in-a-lifetime conflict. And, for that, they need their own data.
That's right, and I certainly hope India has her spies on the job in Ukraine.
India better have. There is a lot for India to learn and incorporate.

PGuru, from 8 days ago, reported that the Nuland trip to India was about replacing Russian arms that India is not happy with - he specifically mentions the T-90 (based on performance in Ukraine). Seems they (looks like India too) are expecting the Ukraine war to end pretty soon and the focus move to the China.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Better sell Abrams and other stuff quickly to India NOW before they are put to confront Russian wares and truth about their performance comes out in the open.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

NRao wrote:
Snip...

PGuru, from 8 days ago, reported that the Nuland trip to India was about replacing Russian arms that India is not happy with - he specifically mentions the T-90 (based on performance in Ukraine). Seems they (looks like India too) are expecting the Ukraine war to end pretty soon and the focus move to the China.
It's quite strange.

India will get rid of T90 and buy M1 from the US. When it has Arjun ready for service.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by V_Raman »

America cannot keep its MIC going without India and they know that. Russia has China to supply. They will try everything in their power to get India to buy their wares.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by YashG »

V_Raman wrote:America cannot keep its MIC going without India and they know that. Russia has China to supply. They will try everything in their power to get India to buy their wares.
China dsnt blv in imports. Only Indian babus make their cuts by just importing.

So when all efforts to buy foreign run out, they start issuing RFIs for maal that has no domestic production over maal that is available in india and much needed. (like issuing RFI for MTAs when not urgently needed over LCH/LCA Mk1A urgently needed)
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Aditya_V »

I have a question regarding the Pakistani Ordinance Factory 122mm D30 i.e Type 83 in Chinese service shells being supplied by Pakistan to Ukraine, Pakistan got this artillery from 122mm China and possibly the POF factories were setup by China. Is PRC running with the Hares and hunting with the Hounds?



https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... for_export
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

Aditya_V wrote:I have a question regarding the Pakistani Ordinance Factory 122mm D30 i.e Type 83 in Chinese service shells being supplied by Pakistan to Ukraine, Pakistan got this artillery from 122mm China and possibly the POF factories were setup by China. Is PRC running with the Hares and hunting with the Hounds?
Simple answer. No.

PRC doesn't excercise any controls on re-export of munitions produced using equipment provided by it.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

First step for Egypt to join BRICS. A threat to IMF too.

Parliament Approves Agreement Allows Egypt to Join BRICS Group's New Development Bank
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Aditya_V »

Paki export of 122mm Ammo
But I still think China will have Veto that its supplied arms and capability, I don't POF can make the Raw materials either, so the Chinese's are supplying the inputs, its a betrayal of Russians by the Chinese.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

If the POF cannot produce from raw material. Then they might as well be importing finished goods. Because during a conflict with India is going to make supply of raw material from PRC totally impossible. Those guns along with plant and machinery become useless very quickly.

Once the plant of this nature is put together. It has to be self sufficient by necessity.

Therefore, regardless of what we think. Pakistan can export without any approval.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Bart S »

Their artillery plant was set up with South Korean assistance. Not sure about where they get their explosives though.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by fanne »

counterview - why ukrain maybe winning -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9HJDC3I_Qg
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by drnayar »

fanne wrote:counterview - why ukrain maybe winning -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9HJDC3I_Qg
they can win the fight and lose the war
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by KLNMurthy »

NRao wrote:A rather long, but worth it read:

The operative thought: "frustrates the Neocons". Not the trade corridor.

Jan 31, 2023 :: Russia’s “Sanction-Proof” Trade Corridor to India Frustrates the Neocons
Russia, Iran, and India are speeding up efforts to complete a new transport corridor that would largely cut Europe, its sanctions, and any other threats out of the picture. The International North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) is a land-and sea-based 7,200-km long network comprising rail, road and water routes that are aimed at reducing costs and travel time for freight transport in a bid to boost trade between Russia, Iran, Central Asia, India.

For Russia, the “sanction-proof” corridor provides a major export channel to South Asia without needing to go through Europe. But Brussels and Washington, frustrated by their losing in Ukraine and inability to put much of a dent in the Russian economy, could lead them to take more desperate measures.

......
“Naked capitalism” looks interesting. What do you think of it?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

The endgame in #Ukraine, by U.S. military historian Douglas MacGregor. The #Kiev regime is finished. https://twitter.com/timand2037/status/1 ... gRpSUiNafg
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by nandakumar »

KLNMurthy wrote:
NRao wrote:A rather long, but worth it read:

The operative thought: "frustrates the Neocons". Not the trade corridor.

Jan 31, 2023 :: Russia’s “Sanction-Proof” Trade Corridor to India Frustrates the Neocons
“Naked capitalism” looks interesting. What do you think of it?
I look it up at least once a day. They write on global finance and strategic issues. Pretty informative.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by yensoy »

Aditya_V wrote:Paki export of 122mm Ammo
But I still think China will have Veto that its supplied arms and capability, I don't POF can make the Raw materials either, so the Chinese's are supplying the inputs, its a betrayal of Russians by the Chinese.
West is happy to buy from China if it gets things at a lower cost. China is happy to sell to whoever will pay. This is a commercial relationship. Russia-China is a geopolitical relationship. China is also happy to sell to Russia if necessary. There is no ideology here, and "betrayal" only happens if there is an expectation of loyalty. Who said China is monogamous?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Vivasvat »

How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how ... ord-stream
The New York Times called it a “mystery,” but the United States executed a covert sea operation that was kept secret—until now
By Seymour Hersh
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

They lied when they accused Russians of having blown this pipeline.

What else have the Americans been lying about.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1 ... t3w3EL9Ttg

Z arrives in JPC of UK to rapturous welcome, UK finding something to celebrate about its existence finds recluse in Z/Ukraine war, Z arrives as lapdog of US president.
Boris fumes while Sunak gets to welcome Z before him.
Leader of opposition Starmer smoking opium asks to send Putin to gallows & Hague https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1623 ... t3w3EL9Ttg

all happening in same frame
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by drnayar »

Vivasvat wrote:How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how ... ord-stream
The New York Times called it a “mystery,” but the United States executed a covert sea operation that was kept secret—until now
By Seymour Hersh

A must read for all BRFites .. the author is a Pulitzer winner and award-winning journalist of the old breed when the award lived to its name. This post deserves to be a "sticky" for reference.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by drnayar »

Pratyush wrote:They lied when they accused Russians of having blown this pipeline.

What else have the Americans been lying about.
thats an old trick, accuse the afflicted of doing the very same thing. Americans lie ALL the time., where did we hear they (including the brits) were saying the truth ?!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Avid »

Vivasvat wrote:How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how ... ord-stream
The New York Times called it a “mystery,” but the United States executed a covert sea operation that was kept secret—until now
By Seymour Hersh
Many things line up with otherwise known facts.

1) Sweden abruptly shut the door to joint investigation and seized all evidence. This was curiously suspicious and pointed to Russia not being the culprit. Now we know it is a price they had to pay for continued support (from Norway and the US) to their NATO admission.
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... s-91099663

2) Hours after the blast a USN P8 flew directly overhead; and loitered/circled over Poland, then again close to the leaks/blast locations.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-10-07/

3) Does anyone have (or knows how to) access the flight path data of the Norwegian P8 that is said to have dropped the sonar buoy?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

There has been only one group that has been interested in cutting ANY and ALL relationships between Germany and Russia: Neocons (primarily in the US).

It is under Biden that pretty much all major positions have come under the Neocons: the presidency, Sec of State, NSA, leaders of both parties in the Senate, and at least the majority leader in the House. Aside: I recently heard the Republican Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, is expected to visit Taiwan - that is exactly what Nancy Pelosi did as a Democrat - and if he does, then the House to has both leaders in that camp.

Under Trump, there were two influential Neocons: John Bolton as the NSA, and Mike Pompeo as the Sec of State. Neither could do much because other cabinet members and Trump too, did not play along. Today Bolton has a dedicated NGO/think tank that is actively and openly working towards replacing Erdogan of Turkey. And, Pompeo seems to be ready to run against Trump in 2024.

And, prior to that under Obama, when Biden and Nuland were extremely active, however, their boss Obama said:
U.S. President Barack Obama said that Ukraine "is going to be vulnerable to military domination by Russia no matter what" the United States does.
and, thus kept the Neocons in his administration in check.

Be thankful that Hillary did not win in 2016.

Not to be outdone, Richard Kagan, Victoria Nuland's husband, last week wrote an opinion in Foreign Affairs. He is arguing that the Neocon agenda (go to war with Russia and China) should be funded to the hilt. Else "freedom" will not survive.

And, these guys are supported by Globalists (Sunak) and the World Economic Forum (WEF) (Schwab).

And, make no mistake, they have support - in some shape/form - from Australia, Japan, South Korea, and many others.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

There was never any doubt that BALTOPs was the cover for this sabotage. Hersh may not have digged into it, but Polish and UK special forces are also thought to be involved.

For those wondering why Russia couldn't detect this and didn't react violently - they took a long-term view of it all. They have realised how ungrateful and spineless Europeans especially Germans can be. Instead of them turning off gas supplies before winter and appearing unreasonable and giving air to "Putin the vengeful mad dictator" propaganda, the US did the job for them. So be it.

Russia by this time had rerouted it's oil and gas supplies to the East and was decoupling with Europe anyway. If NS sabotage pushes gas prices up for a few months, Russia will easily recoup it's investment. They will focus on global south whose galloping energy needs will buy from Russia for decades into the future and entail no such shenanigans and risks.

While this is an extremely mature and solid calculation acumen on Russia's part, it also crystallised Russia's opinion that Europeans and US can no longer be trusted on anything ever again. The way forward can only be complete destruction of Ukraine's military, total control of Ukranian territory and put Russian forces on the Polish border. I think that's what Russia will do.

Biden may have given himself a geriatric hard on by blowing up NS but he well and truly lost the plot and the trust of the global South definitively.

BTW, the press conf of Blinken the article is referring to was a joint presser with Dr SJ present when Blinken made those "great opportunity bla bla". Someone please fwd this article to Dr SJ on Twitter. He would have guessed already on the spot that Blinken was lying through his teeth, the article will make him chuckle.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Avid »

Cyrano wrote: For those wondering why Russia couldn't detect this and didn't react violently - they took a long-term view of it all. ...
Russian options were: 1) react and blame; or 2) wait for western sources to discover for themselves and come to the conclusion.

If they acted #1 -- it was well known that reaction is what West would expertly use to blame Russia itself. West expected this to be the case, but likely Russians saw through this. Also, the totality of the consequences of this destruction was not quite known or felt directly by the German populace and their economy.

Under #2 -- it becomes big news, and given it is Seymour Hersh it receives a degree of validation. This leads to other outcomes that are more favorable to Russia. Whether or not US likes it -- this information will find audience and will be accepted by large number of German voters as legitimate. Labor unions are still popular in Germany. The consequence of this pipeline destruction is now staring them all in the face. This includes likely exodus of the industry to the US where they can access cheaper gas. Time will tell how this plays out...
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Absolutely right Avid ji.
Energy starved Europe will struggle economically and will find it impossible to go kinetic against Russia in any ground war. If relatively well off Western Europe goes into recession, Eastern European countries living up to European standards with EU dole money will totter and first the Euro and eventually the EU will collapse. Ergo long term threat reduction for Russia. Thats my forecast.

Unless a totally new crop of sensible leaders emerges across Europe and they stand up to American vassalisation. I might as well wish for flying pigs... Makes me sad since I live in Europe.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

apparently Elon Musk disabling starlink for ukro nazi is due to later using nerve gas on russian soldiers (on US watch)
https://twitter.com/HamodiHaz/status/16 ... nCNJiiR4Qg
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Inevitable. FYI..

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

Image

Z in Eu/UK there was competition to kiss his butt
leaders outdid each other in crawling at his feet
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by drnayar »

IndraD wrote:https://i.ibb.co/F6Ps0RD/Untitled.png[/img]

Z in Eu/UK there was competition to kiss his butt
leaders outdid each other in crawling at his feet
all optics at best. delusional.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by drnayar »

NRao wrote:Inevitable. FYI..

jcEs0SJRZ00[/youtube]
idiotsky is looking to form a fighter farce with a medley of F16,22,35,tornadoes,rafales and what not to invade Russia :roll:
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Avid »

NRao wrote:Inevitable. FYI..

If they sanction India -- the refined fuel going from India to EU will stop; and the prices of Oil & Gas will go up. EU and US are doing a balancing act to ensure maximal profits for their Oil & Gas firms without causing a revolt. US/EU collect on taxes on these profits and fund the war. A corrupt cycle of money that is drawn out of the pockets of their own citizens.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Zombies

Image
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by V_Raman »

is the western world making a fool of themselves or of ukraine with these theatrics? unbelievable :shock:
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Interesting take by Pankaj Saran:

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

:rotfl:

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