Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Kati »

The Guardian reports:
CIA Director William Burns recently traveled in secret to Ukraine’s capital to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a US official told Reuters on Thursday. “Director Burns traveled to Kyiv, where he met with Ukrainian intelligence counterparts as well as President Zelenskiy and reinforced our continued support for Ukraine and its defense against Russian aggression,” the US official, who declined to be identified or say when the visit took place.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... e-invasion
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Kati »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... for-russia

Former Swedish intelligence officer jailed for life for spying for Russia
The Iranian-born brothers, :shock: both of whom hold Swedish citizenship, have denied the charges and are expected to appeal against them. They were arrested in 2021 when Säpo suspected it had a mole and accused them of having spied for Moscow since 2011.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Kati »

Mystery divers rescued near Polish energy sites in the middle of the night offer dubious explanation, and vanish

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poland-mys ... structure/
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by rajkumar »

Bulgaria to the rescue: How the EU’s poorest country secretly saved Ukraine

Sofia provided fuel and vital Soviet specification arms to Kyiv, but had to keep supplies secret because of pro-Moscow politicians in government.

https://www.politico.eu/article/bulgari ... eu-ukraine
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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Alex Christoforu reported that Ukraine has started mobilizing citizens from key sectors of their economy - like, government, medical, and law enforcement - who were thus far exempt.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

new round of sanctions being prepared by EU, Z defiant wants Ru nuked now https://www.rt.com/russia/570190-ukrain ... ns-russia/
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/statu ... 5011862553
They[US] are getting desperate

US is working with 9 Latin American countries on the issue of transferring Russian weapons on the balance of their armed forces to Ukraine in exchange for supplies of US equipment.
This was stated on Thursday by the head of the Southern Command of the US Armed Forces, General Laura Richardson, speaking at the Atlantic Council at a seminar on "strategic threats in Latin America."
Remember that name
"Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua <...> and six other countries, that is, only nine countries [Latin America] have Russian weapons. We are working to replace these Russian weapons with American ones if these countries want to transfer them to Ukraine," she said.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

US has designated Wagner as an international criminal organisation. I am surprised it took so long to be honest…
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Some data points that may help understand UKR:

23 minutes long:

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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DAVOS 2023-UAE and India discussing settling non-oil trade in rupees
The United Arab Emirates is in early discussions with India to trade non-oil commodities in Indian rupees, Emirati Minister for Foreign Trade Dr Thani Al Zeyoudi said on Thursday.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Buckle up.

The crazies just got to be crazier

Dutch Open To Transferring F-16 Jets To Ukraine (Updated)
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by yensoy »

NRao wrote:Buckle up.
The crazies just got to be crazier
Dutch Open To Transferring F-16 Jets To Ukraine (Updated)
Don't read too much into this. This indicates (i) NL doesn't think it faces any military threat and is happy to clean house by getting rid of expensive toys, or (ii) NL wants to replace F-16s with F-35s or something more modern. Maybe it is a combination of both, get rid of a large number of F-16s and replace with smaller number of 5 gen a/c. I would use this opportunity to clean house if someone gave me a newer fancier gizmo for free or low cost.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

that is NL point of view however Ukr will be getting them in 100s (F16), which is significant threat, obviously these countries think Russia is not a threat to them!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

yensoy wrote:
NRao wrote:Buckle up.
The crazies just got to be crazier
Dutch Open To Transferring F-16 Jets To Ukraine (Updated)
Don't read too much into this. This indicates (i) NL doesn't think it faces any military threat and is happy to clean house by getting rid of expensive toys, or (ii) NL wants to replace F-16s with F-35s or something more modern. Maybe it is a combination of both, get rid of a large number of F-16s and replace with smaller number of 5 gen a/c. I would use this opportunity to clean house if someone gave me a newer fancier gizmo for free or low cost.
A lot to unpack.

RNAF retired their last F-16 AM on July 22, 2022. They have already transitioned to the F-35 - which will be operational by this year's end.

However, IMO, this cannot be viewed in isolation. Today, I am even more convinced that India should print USD 50 billion and funnel that money into armaments (made locally). Over time (next year or two) the ripple effects of decisions made by European/NATO nations will reverberate across the globe. I do not believe any nation will be able to "sit it out".
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by yensoy »

IndraD wrote:that is NL point of view however Ukr will be getting them in 100s (F16), which is significant threat, obviously these countries think Russia is not a threat to them!
Do they have trained pilots in such quantities?
NRao wrote: A lot to unpack.
RNAF retired their last F-16 AM on July 22, 2022. They have already transitioned to the F-35 - which will be operational by this year's end.
However, IMO, this cannot be viewed in isolation. Today, I am even more convinced that India should print USD 50 billion and funnel that money into armaments (made locally). Over time (next year or two) the ripple effects of decisions made by European/NATO nations will reverberate across the globe. I do not believe any nation will be able to "sit it out".
Ah I didn't know that, thanks. If we need our local armaments we better order quick because most of our stuff has some imported component or the other, and if situation is going to go bad the supply chain will go to hell.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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Some time back I had mentioned that India would have to take sides. That time, IMO, is fast approaching. Janet Yellen is on an Africa tour, trying to convince (actually threaten IMO) them to side with the collective West. The goal is clear Russia + China vs. Collective West. The problem is India, as G-20 Chair, has decided to represent the Global South (GS) - Jaishankar has been very clear that the GS does not have any meaningful representation, anywhere. And, therein, IMO, lies the rub.

India does not have to explicitly take sides. It will be assigned in absentia and acted upon.

Yellen contrasts US-Africa relations with China, Russia on Senegal visit
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday touted the fruits of a new "mutually beneficial" economic strategy towards Africa, contrasting the damage caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's practices.

"The United States is all in on Africa, and all in with Africa," she said during a visit to Senegal, part of a push by President Joe Biden's administration to boost relations with a continent where the United States faces increased competition from other major powers.

"Our engagement is not transactional, it's not for show, and it's not for the short-term."

Yellen, who had attended a US-Africa summit hosted by Biden in Washington last month, said the president, vice president and other cabinet secretaries would travel to African countries this year.

"The world is finally catching up to recognising Africa's contributions -- past and future," she said on a visit to a business incubator in the Senegalese capital Dakar, her first stop on a three-country tour of the continent.

She said the US had outlined a new strategy towards the continent, seeking "to modernise our relationship by focusing on what we can do together, rather than what we can do for each other".

The relationship, she said, would be "based on mutual cooperation and greater ambition".

- Russia -

Yellen cited the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine as major economic headwinds for Africa.

"Let me be clear: the single best thing we can do to help the global economy is to end Russia's illegal and unprovoked war in Ukraine", she said.

"Russia's war and weaponisation of food has exacerbated food insecurity and caused untold suffering, and the global economic headwinds caused by the actions of a single man -- President Putin -- is creating an unnecessary drag on" economies.

In her speech, which followed a meeting with Senegal's Economy Minister Oulimata Sarr, Yellen highlighted the continent's promising demographics.

But she cautioned that momentum could only propel economic growth if combined with adequate job opportunities and investments.

US investments on the continent, she said, are "motivated by our mutually beneficial, long-term partnership -- the goal is to generate positive economic returns while fostering sustainable debt."

She said African governments need the "fiscal space" to be able to make "important" public investments.

"We believe that the international community, including China, needs to provide meaningful debt relief to help countries regain their footing," she said.

Yellen's speech came a day after she announced the Treasury had begun taking measures at home to prevent a default on US government debt.

- 'Shiny deals' -

In Dakar, Yellen described US plans to partner with African countries on climate change, health and security issues.

She reiterated US support for the African Union to join the G20.

She said international institutions needed to be reformed, but also that African governments needed greater accountability and transparency.

"Countries need to be wary of shiny deals that may be opaque and ultimately fail to actually benefit the people they were purportedly designed to help in the first place," Yellen said.

"This can leave countries with a legacy of debt, diverted resources, and environmental destruction."

In an implicit contrast with China, which takes a hands-off approach in countries where it invests, Yellen said the US has taken a "different" tack, prioritising "transparency, good governance, accountability, and environmental sustainability."

"While our approach may be exacting, we believe it delivers lasting results," she said.

Yellen was expected to meet Senegal's Minister of Finance Mamadou Moustapha Ba and President Macky Sall later on Friday.

She is scheduled to travel to Zambia on Sunday, and later to South Africa.

At the Washington summit, which brought together 49 African leaders in December, Biden called for a long-term partnership with Africa rooted in good governance.

It was the first such gathering since Barack Obama invited African leaders in 2014.

In August, Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited South Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, while the US ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, visited Ghana and Uganda.

Those visits followed a four-nation tour of Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda and Congo-Brazzaville by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

India’s Principled Neutrality Reaps Grand Strategic Dividends
https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics- ... dividends/
14 Dec 2022

https://twitter.com/Rockflower14/status ... R9YuHhwtEg ---> In Dr Jaishankar's words, "I do have a side. I am on India's side..."
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Purely for kicks:

Gonzalo Lira, 13 minutes. Funny

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Aditya_V »

I have feeling that After Demo , feeling comfortable they boxed Russia in a really long term no peace no war between Russia and Ukraine like the India Pakistan situation, US UK Intelligence apparatus spent too much energy of toppling Namo, thats why Pakis were greenlighted with Pulwama, then after Balakote, Swift Retreat and 2019 elections set back, the Victoria Nuland's were visiting Delhi greenlighting the Shaheen Bagh's, Delhi Riots coinciding with Trump's Delhi visit, lot of misinformation during the early Pandemic, Dakait's soo called mass movement etc.

It was in Early July 21 they realised Russia was heavily rearming, that they did a quick withdrawal from Afghanistan virtually through the Pakis and China negotiating a handover to the Taliban- saving resources and men for the Ukraine conflict.

Then the Neocon's thought they could double down and finish Russia first.

There is a lot more about Vladimir Putin's visit to Delhi in Dec 21 than what meets the eye. The Media was flummoxed as there no Big ticket defence deals but only random Oil and Coal , currency exchange agreements then .
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by suryag »

Can someone please tell me under what pretext is US arming Ukraine ? It is not a NATO country neither is this action UN mandated so what brings the US to support Ukraine
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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suryag wrote:Can someone please tell me under what pretext is US arming Ukraine ? It is not a NATO country neither is this action UN mandated so what brings the US to support Ukraine
The US needs no reason to do whatever she does.

Earlier I had mentioned to keep the name of the Commander of the US Southern Command in mind. She is on record that the US Southern Command exists because South America has so much natural wealth. One would think her Command is there to secure the US's southern border.

There are a couple of reports that the current US ambassador to Chile is a CIA agent, busy extracting the natural wealth of that nation!!

Russia has the world's largest natural resources. That is what the US is after.

And, as long as no one opposes them - with lives - they will continue. Millions of lives. 10-50 million.

(Aside: that is why I had stated not to resort to logic or any laws or rules. India needs to build her arsenal. If it is not needed, so be it. But, trying to reason will never work.)
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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Aditya_V wrote:I have feeling that After Demo , feeling comfortable they boxed Russia in a really long term no peace no war between Russia and Ukraine like the India Pakistan situation, US UK Intelligence apparatus spent too much energy of toppling Namo, thats why Pakis were greenlighted with Pulwama, then after Balakote, Swift Retreat and 2019 elections set back, the Victoria Nuland's were visiting Delhi greenlighting the Shaheen Bagh's, Delhi Riots coinciding with Trump's Delhi visit, lot of misinformation during the early Pandemic, Dakait's soo called mass movement etc.

It was in Early July 21 they realised Russia was heavily rearming, that they did a quick withdrawal from Afghanistan virtually through the Pakis and China negotiating a handover to the Taliban- saving resources and men for the Ukraine conflict.

Then the Neocon's thought they could double down and finish Russia first.

There is a lot more about Vladimir Putin's visit to Delhi in Dec 21 than what meets the eye. The Media was flummoxed as there no Big ticket defence deals but only random Oil and Coal , currency exchange agreements then .
What you are saying is this is the time for India to move on Gilgit-Baltistan. I am not interested in PoK at all.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

As the world turns.

Russians know how to play this game.

Former high-level FBI official charged in alleged schemes to help sanctioned Russian oligarch and conceal payments from ex-Albanian intelligence employee
The former head of counterintelligence for the FBI’s New York field office was charged in two separate indictments Monday for allegedly working with a sanctioned Russian oligarch after he retired and concealing hundreds of thousands of dollars he received from a former employee of an Albanian intelligence agency while he was a top official at the bureau.

.....
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vijayk »

NRao wrote:Purely for kicks:

Gonzalo Lira, 13 minutes. Funny.
:rotfl: DOn't doubt it
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Some very astute observations and insights:
(Only wish MEA had a better multimedia specialist - most teenagers can do better but given the quality of the lecture by Bilahari Kausikan, it's a minor nitpick)

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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All he had to do was add a 0 or two at the end and he would never have been "caught"
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Gen. Laura J. Richardson, Commander US Southern Command.

There are multiple videos in there, so search for "Southcom Leader Talks About Latin America". 50 minutes long.

This is not the video I was looking for but should do for now.

For a military person check out how much of her talk is about socio-economics and therefore policy formulation. She NEVER talks about (a lack of) fighters, tanks, naval ships, .....

Southcom Leader Talks About Latin America
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Aditya_V »

V_Raman wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:I have feeling that After Demo , ........................ currency exchange agreements then .
What you are saying is this is the time for India to move on Gilgit-Baltistan. I am not interested in PoK at all.
No where in my post there is any mention of POK, I don't know why you are trying to divert the issue. Lets not derail the thread, but most Indians want large parts of POK with India. If you want this can be discussed in the appropriate thread.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by YashG »

NRao wrote:Some time back I had mentioned that India would have to take sides. That time, IMO, is fast approaching. Janet Yellen is on an Africa tour, trying to convince (actually threaten IMO) them to side with the collective West. The goal is clear Russia + China vs. Collective West. The problem is India, as G-20 Chair, has decided to represent the Global South (GS) - Jaishankar has been very clear that the GS does not have any meaningful representation, anywhere. And, therein, IMO, lies the rub.

India does not have to explicitly take sides. It will be assigned in absentia and acted upon.
If US is serious about being friends wot Africa, it should start funneling at same pace 30-100 billion USD into African nations as climate aid. If 'on moral grounds' US can fund the Ukraine war, they should on 'moral grounds' atleast pay as much for climate aid where they are the infringing party.

Not sure if african nations will see US hypocrisy.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by gakakkad »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/videos/w ... 81688.html

Pee Aar AF ahead of the curve as usual...Poland considered (and perhaps is still considering) acquiring west Ukr. beans spilled by the phamous loud mouth Radoslaw Sikorsky. Person is a US-Pole Dual national and is married to deep state insider Anne Appelbaum . He probably has deep access to the current US deep state.. If he is revealing Polish plan to grab western half of ukraine than such a plan probably did exist.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Avid »

Came across this news -- it is old, but do not recall seeing it earlier on BRF.
It claims that Indian T-90S have been diverted by Russia.
https://frontierindia.com/indian-army-t ... or-russia/

Any information that further enlightens would be most appreciated.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by gakakkad »

^^ it was debunked a few months ago...
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Never a dull moment.

WSJ, Jan 23, 2023

U.S. Tanks Should Go to Taiwan Over Ukraine
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Avid »

gakakkad wrote:^^ it was debunked a few months ago...
[edited] Thanks
Last edited by Avid on 24 Jan 2023 21:23, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

That seems to be a serious and suicidal delusion by Estonia. Becoming the next Ukraine is no way to glory.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Haresh »

Pratyush wrote:
That is an act of war
And what will Estonia, the other Baltic states, Sweden & Finland do if Russia closes the entrance to the Baltic Sea ?
All the Russians have to do is sink some old hulks at the entrance near Denmark?
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