Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 01 Feb 2023 21:08

Unfortunately this land has produced its jaichands in every era, big and small. Because we know that there will be a few among 1.5B people, we need to be prepared and deal with them without mercy.

But when external threats and contained/crushed, internal threats will automatically lay low.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 01 Feb 2023 23:02

A "file" could have very/extremely sensitive data/info on the health of a leader (not just a PM/President - could be influential scientist, CEO, etc), on finance/economy, military weaknesses that could be exploited, food/water/etc situations that could get rid of leaders or political parties, natural fault lines, .........

That is why the US has the CIA.

In the case of "India", China would gladly help the US turn a few apple carts. And, we know how good China is at building "files" - even through apps.

And, if I may add, when it comes to "engines", the US, Russia, the UK, and France WILL do everything possible to prevent India from getting one. And, China will cheer.

Full spectral.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Feb 2023 03:47

1 hour old, 1 minute long

Around a month ago I had said I expect Germany to pivot towards Russia

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Feb 2023 06:23

Col Doug Macgregor. 3 minutes long

On the M1A1 tanks being sent to Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/live/cmIKBEiaRy ... are&t=1431

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Feb 2023 07:39

Top NATO official says Alliance ready for direct confrontation with Russia

Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of the NATO Military Committee

Jan 29, 2023

Bauer said that NATO countries ought to gear civilian industrial production to the needs of the military and expressed his support for the idea of a "war economy in peacetime".

He wants NATO nations to move to a war economy

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 02 Feb 2023 14:31

"The Crisis in Ukraine is not about Ukraine its about Germany".
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-crisis ... t-germany/

This well written piece is worth a read

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 02 Feb 2023 15:38

What the article states has been clear for sometime since last summer.

In fact of the 4 seperate entities involved in this conflict.

It only the Europeans that I don't understand.

Why have they castrated themselves. Lost all sense of strategic independence?

Who are the strategic thinkers that are incapable of seeing the long term interests of Europe?

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 02 Feb 2023 18:44

There are none. Thats the sad reality.

RamSuresh · Post by **RamSuresh** » 02 Feb 2023 18:59

Pratyush wrote:What the article states has been clear for sometime since last summer.

I just realised the article is dated 2022 February.

Since then Nord 2 and Nord 1 have gone exactly the way the article anticipated. Such fools Europeans have made themselves of.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Feb 2023 19:55

Pratyush wrote:What the article states has been clear for sometime since last summer.

In fact of the 4 seperate entities involved in this conflict.

It only the Europeans that I don't understand.

Why have they castrated themselves. Lost all sense of strategic independence?

Who are the strategic thinkers that are incapable of seeing the long term interests of Europe?

There are two groups: The Neocons (who support the Neocons in the US), and others (who mostly oppose the Neocons).

Neocons in Europe: Boris Johnson, Ursala van der Layen, and a few others, including a few within NATO. and some very powerful newspaper reporters and experts.

Under others, we do have Hungary, the current PM of Italy, to some extent Macron, etc. This group consists of entities that have some sort of tie-ins with Russia (gas, nuclear, etc), ideological (Italy), or plain simple this-war-is-stupid (but cannot say it).

Then we have the head of the World Economic Forum (WEF) Klaus (who is independent of the Neocons, but whose interests do overlap), Bill Gates, Soros, etc. This is a very interesting category that is missed, but extremely powerful. The ROI of this group is the highest - they invested nothing and are getting huge returns in terms of chaos - which they then claim only they can manage.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Feb 2023 20:53

Alternative news sites you may want to consider.

18 minutes long

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Feb 2023 21:56

Ukraine can’t retake Crimea soon, Pentagon tells lawmakers in classified briefing

By ALEXANDER WARD, PAUL MCLEARY and CONNOR O’BRIEN

02/01/2023 08:08 PM EST

Ukrainian forces are unlikely to be able to recapture Crimea from Russian troops in the near future, four senior Defense Department officials told House Armed Services Committee lawmakers in a classified briefing. The assessment is sure to frustrate leaders in Kyiv who consider taking the peninsula back one of their signature goals.

It’s unclear what led the briefers to that assessment. But the clear indication, as relayed by three people with direct knowledge of Thursday’s briefing’s contents, was that the Pentagon doesn’t believe Ukraine has — or soon will have — the ability to force Russian troops out of the peninsula Moscow seized nearly a decade ago.

......

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Feb 2023 22:03

German newspaper Die Welt (translated):

Why it is almost impossible that Ukraine will still win

Pay walled:

As bitter as it is, a victory for Ukraine is becoming less likely every day. Kiev's army is running out of men and material, the enemy is adapting better and has massive supplies. No wonder Western diplomats are now talking more and more about a ceasefire.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Feb 2023 22:05

Washington Post :: Feb 1, 2023 :: U.S. cautions Ukraine on aid as public support slips

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Feb 2023 22:24

A rather long, but worth it read:

The operative thought: "frustrates the Neocons". Not the trade corridor.

Jan 31, 2023 :: Russia’s “Sanction-Proof” Trade Corridor to India Frustrates the Neocons

Russia, Iran, and India are speeding up efforts to complete a new transport corridor that would largely cut Europe, its sanctions, and any other threats out of the picture. The International North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) is a land-and sea-based 7,200-km long network comprising rail, road and water routes that are aimed at reducing costs and travel time for freight transport in a bid to boost trade between Russia, Iran, Central Asia, India.

For Russia, the “sanction-proof” corridor provides a major export channel to South Asia without needing to go through Europe. But Brussels and Washington, frustrated by their losing in Ukraine and inability to put much of a dent in the Russian economy, could lead them to take more desperate measures.

......

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Feb 2023 22:40

New York Is Gorging on Fuel Made From Illicit Russian Oil

New York is buying an unusually large amount of gasoline and diesel from India — a country that has become a top outlet for sanctioned Russian oil.

.......

The RoI has to work out for this to happen.

Modi-Putin high-five.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Feb 2023 22:50

OK, I am exhausted.

Here is one for pure kicks.

How an American Veterans Group Imploded in Ukraine

KYIV, Ukraine — Andrew Milburn, a former American Marine colonel and leader of the Mozart Group, stood in a chilly meeting room on the second floor of an apartment building in Kyiv about to deliver some bad news. In front of him sat half a dozen men who had traveled to Ukraine on their own dime to work for him.

“Guys, I’m gutted,” he said. “The Mozart Group is dead.”

The men stared back at him with blank faces.

One asked as he walked toward the door, “What should I do with my helmet?”

The Mozart Group, one of the most prominent, private American military organizations in Ukraine, has collapsed under a cloud of accusations ranging from financial improprieties to alcohol-addled misjudgments. Its struggles provide a revealing window into the world of foreign volunteer groups that have flocked to Ukraine with noble intentions only to be tripped up by the stresses of managing a complicated enterprise in a war zone.

“I’ve seen this happen many times,” said one of Mozart’s veteran trainers, who, like many others, spoke only anonymously out of concerns that the Russians might target him. “You got to run these groups like a business. We didn’t do that.”

.....

(Col) Andrew Milburn after a meeting on Tuesday, when he said the Mozart Group, which he co-founded, “is dead.” At the top of the white board, he drew an X through the group’s initials, TMG. Credit...Brendan Hoffman for The New York Times

That is pretty cool.

White boarding military stuff in 2022.

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 03 Feb 2023 03:12

NRao wrote:A rather long, but worth it read:

The operative thought: "frustrates the Neocons". Not the trade corridor.

Jan 31, 2023 :: Russia’s “Sanction-Proof” Trade Corridor to India Frustrates the Neocons

Russia, Iran, and India are speeding up efforts to complete a new transport corridor that would largely cut Europe, its sanctions, and any other threats out of the picture. The International North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) is a land-and sea-based 7,200-km long network comprising rail, road and water routes that are aimed at reducing costs and travel time for freight transport in a bid to boost trade between Russia, Iran, Central Asia, India.

For Russia, the “sanction-proof” corridor provides a major export channel to South Asia without needing to go through Europe. But Brussels and Washington, frustrated by their losing in Ukraine and inability to put much of a dent in the Russian economy, could lead them to take more desperate measures.

......

This explain the attack on Adani. Thx for posting NRao-ji. As always - BRF enlightens in impossible ways!

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 03 Feb 2023 05:52

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1621094751176118273

Not sure how trustworthy these sources are
https://www.nzz.ch/international/kampfp ... ld.1724136

Swiss media reports that Biden sent CIA chief to Kyiv & Moscow in a secret mission in mid-January to explore the "willingness of both sides for negotiations"

The offer to Kyiv was to secede around 20% of its territory for peace. Both sides refused.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 03 Feb 2023 06:44

Jeff Bezos is selling WashPost.

Does anyone want to buy it?

_____________________________

Betti Neocon Nikki (Haley) is going to announce her candidacy for the US Presidency.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 03 Feb 2023 08:52

Some serious, plain talk:

5 minutes.

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 03 Feb 2023 11:35

X-Post from the Kaveri & Aero-Engine: News & Discussion thread...

NRao wrote:... And, if - as I personally expect - China, as we know it today, ceases to exist ...

Interesting, this is the second time (as far as I can recall) you have spoken about this possibility. Please do tell -- explain your reasoning. I am interested. (Probably not on this thread, let me know where you put your reply, if you do so. Thanks. ).

BTW, I agree with you about the funding -- funds will be made available for things that are deemed to be of sufficient vital national interest. The only question is, is Kaveri one of those interests?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 03 Feb 2023 18:56

Joe Biden Offered Vladimir Putin 20 Percent of Ukraine to End War
https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-vlad ... 8526?amp=1

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 03 Feb 2023 22:26

From Putin's speech, Feb 2, 2023:

Gala concert for 80th anniversary of defeating German Nazi forces in Battle of Stalingrad

..........

Now we are seeing that unfortunately, the ideology of Nazism – this time in its modern guise – is again creating direct threats to our national security, and we are, time and again, forced to resist the aggression of the collective West.

However incredible, it is a fact – we are again being threatened with German Leopard tanks with crosses on board. There is again a plan to fight Russia on Ukrainian land using Hitler’s successors, the Banderites.

We know that despite the efforts of official bodies and the corrupt propaganda of the unfriendly Western elites, we have many friends all over the world, including the Americas, North America, and Europe.

However, those that are dragging European countries, including Germany, into a new war with Russia, and especially those that are irresponsibly talking about it as a fait accompli, those who are hoping to defeat Russia on the battlefield, apparently fail to understand that a modern war against Russia will be a completely different war for them. We do not send our tanks to their borders but we have what to respond with, and it is not limited to the use of armour. Everyone must realise this.

............

Once again Russia vs. Germany.

He does not even mince words - neither the land mass of Ukraine nor Poland matters.

The last time, to defeat Germany, Russia had to send tanks to the German border - crossing Ukraine and Poland. Putin is saying now/today Russia does not need to send anything to the German border!!!!

_______________________________

Indians better get hold of those CNC machines pretty fast.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 04 Feb 2023 00:53

We heard of many 10% politicians.
Bidenwa has gone further and has become "take 20% from them" politician.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 04 Feb 2023 05:39

The Duran, on the purge in progress in UKR

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 04 Feb 2023 17:53

The battle for lithium: China plants its shovel in the US’ back yard
https://www.rt.com/news/570560-battle-lithium-china-us/

Lithium is the essential mineral for renewable energy resources, and is gearing up to become to the 21st century what coal was to the previous two centuries.

The mineral is the key material in producing lithium-ion batteries, which power everything from mobile phones to electric cars. More importantly, it is deemed to be a “pillar for the fossil-fuel free economy” by the United Nations, seen as the primary way to store energy in the clean power grids of the future. As such, lithium has become one of the most sought-after commodities with its price surging by over 500% in the past two years.

Geopolitical currents are driving a scramble for the precious mineral by world powers. There’s a fight over who controls supply chains, started by the US, which has rejected globalization and is seeking to reassert its influence over critical global goods by forcibly re-shoring them and undermining competitors (a key aspect of its approach towards Russia and China).

With its dominant position over renewable energy goods and technologies, China has become the focus of the Biden administration's efforts to regain a lead in the industry. Washington’s more competitive posture has seen the two countries at odds over who can locate and exploit lithium deposits around the planet. Whoever controls the supply chain will dominate the industry.

The supply chain begins where the resource in question is found. On this, China has a head start, possessing both a significant amount of lithium and the ability to mine it. It ranks sixth in the world for overall lithium resources (5.1 million tons) and fourth in mineable reserves (1.5 million tons). The US itself has more lithium resources with 9.1 million tons, but its current mineable reserves stand at only 750,000 tons. Resources in this case relate to known deposits of lithium whereas mineable reserves are those that are already being extracted and utilized.

While having Australia on its side, with its 5.7 million tons of lithium reserves, could help shift the balance in its favor, it seems the US is losing its grip on a region that is rich in lithium deposits and also one Washington has dominated for decades if not centuries: Central and South America. Meanwhile, China is making significant advances in these key regions.

Latin America alone possesses 56% of the world’s Lithium deposits. These are concentrated in Bolivia, Argentina, Chile (the ‘lithium triangle’), and Brazil. Bolivia’s 21 million tons are practically untapped, and while Argentina exploits 2.2 million of its 19 million tons of overall resources, there’s obviously room to grow. In addition, Mexico also has 1.7 million tons. Now, the US and China are competing for access to this vast supply.

Traditionally, the US has claimed hegemony over the Americas through its Monroe Doctrine policy, which is intended to prevent the emergence of any other competing power in the region. In order to maintain this dominance, Washington has waged centuries worth of wars and engineered regime change and coups in Latin American countries, the most recent effort being the unsuccessful attempt to remove Nicholas Maduro from Venezuela (which itself had to do with oil).

As the geopolitical and economic rivalry between the US and China heats up, Beijing has sought to invest in many lithium ventures across the Americas. The US has responded by leveraging political power where it can. There have been efforts to block a Chinese company from exploring lithium in Mexico, and Canada recently ordered three Chinese firms to divest from its mineral companies citing matters of national security. Both of these countries are parties to the USMCA - United States - Mexico - Canada Agreement, and with China gone, their lithium mines will be more open to American investment.

Washington’s efforts have not been successful in every instance. The number one country for Lithium reserves, Bolivia, is not a US-friendly country and leans far to the left politically. As such, several weeks ago a Chinese consortium secured a deal in La Paz that gives it the right to develop two lithium plants. The Chinese company will invest over $1 billion into the first stage of the project.

The US also faces challenges in Argentina and Brazil, with both countries rejecting the Monroe Doctrine and seeking to secure their interests in a more multipolar environment. With the defeat of Jair Bolsonaro and the return of left-wing Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva, it seems obvious that Brazil will pitch itself as part of a multipolar environment and seek engagement with China, discarding the Sinophobic, pro-US streak embraced by his predecessor. A year ago, Argentina joined China’s Belt and Road initiative, and in July last year a Chinese company completed a near $1 billion deal to take over of an Argentinian Lithium firm, something the US was not able to block.

Geopolitical tensions are heating up as fast as an overstressed lithium battery. A future full of electric cars and renewable, clean energy may be coming, but climate issues and the future of humanity are not the driving force here. Shared global interests are dogged by the politics of which country should get to manufacture these electric cars, and which country should control the supply chains to make them. The US has a problem with China getting ahead, which is creating a new showdown in the Americas.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 04 Feb 2023 19:47

Indian refiners pay traders in dirhams for Russian oil

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 023-02-03/

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 05 Feb 2023 08:05

Brazil rejects sending tank shells to Germany over concern of handover to Ukraine — report

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 05 Feb 2023 09:29

From the Strategy thread

CalvinH wrote:
NRao wrote:Iran is a stop on the way to CPC.

CPC, as a target, is arguably the only goal that the deep state and the DoD agree on. This Ukraine, for the DoD, is a total distraction and has taken away from their target: CPC.

Besides the deep state never shares anything.

Let us leave it that for this thread.
What if the Ukraine war is a manufactured distraction to restart the US MIC for a possible showdown with China in near future? US public funds the restart of MIC at war scale to fund the Ukraine war only to see US switch and use it on China.

Meanwhile US is doing all other things to ensure that critical manufacturing abilities are shifted back into US or other safer regions in case a war with China disrupts the global supply chain.

Ukraine war can end tomorrow with Zielinsky offering peace and accepting toned down Russian terms and show this all as his move to build a better Ukraine. Zielinsky will be hailed as a hero, given Nobel peace prize and a smaller Ukraine will be offered assistance to develop as a modern nation. So US has a good exit plan here that can be worked anytime without need for a consensus or excuses. Zielinsky will front face the fallout and rewards. US needs the war prolonged.

There is a lot to unpack on this topic. A lot.

In short: The US DoD + MIC have been rearing to battle China ever since China stole MIC secrets. Forget the dollar cost (which was HUGE), the pain inflicted by the deception is what was and is even today carrying the DoD down this path. The US lost a LOT and made China a "technical near-peer" overnight. There is certainly a revenge factor - only within the DoD. It is palpable. It is one-on-one. Personal. Even today. To witness it you need to be there - it is not written nor spoken about.

A word from my side: China has invested extremely heavily in certain techs and is actually ahead of the US in some. AI, hypersonics, and quantum computing are three areas where China is ahead. Where China totally lacks, IMO, is submarine warfare (the US is decades ahead)(but extremely crucial for SCS warfare) and war experience (including logistics).

On Ukraine: It is declared, not "manufactured". The US was blunt about it: weaken Russia and that should take the sting out of China (and everyone else). However, this was a Neocon plan (Kagan, the family Victoria Nuland is married into), and not a DoD (who was/is focused on "China")

Today, there are a ton of USN assets "around" China. The USMC, after incorporating the F-35B, has enhanced its capability to fight a cool 100 miles deeper as compared to the days when the Harriers were deployed.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 05 Feb 2023 23:26

‘Putin assured me he wouldn’t kill Zelensky,’ Bennett recalls

FEBRUARY 5, 2023 18:13

“Do you intend to kill Zelensky?” Bennett recalled asking Putin, during an almost five-hour interview he gave to Israel’s Channel 12.

Russian President Vladimir Putin promised not to assassinate his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky when he met with former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett last year in the early days of the war.

“Do you intend to kill Zelensky?” Bennett recalled asking Putin, during an almost five-hour interview he gave to Israel’s Channel 12, that was posted on YouTube on Saturday night.

In that conversation, he recounted details from his well-known trip to Moscow on Shabbat in early March 2022, in an attempt to help broker a peace deal between the two sides.

Putin's pledge

While Bennett was not able to help end the hostilities, he was able to secure a pledge from Putin not to kill Zelensky, who at the time was hiding in a secret bunker to prevent such an assassination.

Putin assured Bennett, “I’m not going to kill Zelensky.”

Bennett called Zelensky while he was still in Moscow on his way to the airport from the Kremlin to tell him that he was not under a death threat.

“Are you sure?” Zelensky asked.

“One hundred percent,” Bennett replied. Within hours Zelensky had returned to his office and made a video explaining that he was not afraid, Bennett said.

Not afraid

He had gone to Moscow at Zelensky’s request on the belief that there was a small window of time in which a deal could be reached to end the war.

“We went in absolute secrecy on a decrepit plan from Israel through the Kazakh region… because we couldn’t fly over the black sea. On the way we prayed and made a blessing over the Sabbath wine, it was very emotional,” Bennett said.

They landed in Moscow where it was cold and raining, in what was his first trip to that city, Bennett recalled adding that he was joined by MK Ze’ev Elkin, then the Housing and Construction Minister who is originally from Ukraine and speaks Russian fluently. He had in the past acted as a translator for Netanyahu in his meetings with Putin.

From Moscow, they went to Berlin, to meet with German Chancellor Olaf Schutz and together they updated France, Great Britain and the United States, all of whom had known about his visit.

"Everything I did was coordinated with the United States, Germany and France," he said.

The groundwork for that moment had been laid two months earlier, before the war, when Bennett visited Putin in Sochi for a protracted five to six-hour conversation, that a walk along the shore of the Black Sea and a visit to his home.

He was “smart and sharp” and a supporter of the Jews, Bennett recalled.

up until then, suddenly he gave me a cold look and said ‘they’re Nazis, they’re warmongers, I won’t meet him,’” Bennett recalled.

“I was surprised by the change in his demeanor,” Bennett said.

During that Sochi meeting, Bennett said he was able to restore some of the Israeli aerial freedom of movement to target Iran in Syria that had become constricted.

“There was friction in recent years against the Russians that had restricted our activities,” Bennett said as he referenced the deconfliction agreement with Moscow established in Syria years before he entered office in June 2021.

The warm connection he opened with Putin in Sochi was shored up by subsequent telephone conversations, Bennett recalled.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 Israel was immediately between a “rock and a hard place,” Bennett explained.

“There was an immediate clear US expectation that Israel would do everything it could to help Ukraine” while at the same time, the Jewish State had two “competing interests” that made it difficult to meet that demand, Bennett said.

“One was our routine activity in Syria. Once or twice a week we struck Iranian targets there,” he said.

Russia, which is a superpower has S-300 missiles stationed there that can take Israel’s aerial sorties in the Syrian skies, he said.

“If they press a button Israeli pilots will be downed and who will help rescue them? Will [US President Joe] Biden do it or Zelensky?” he asked noting that it would be Israel’s problem to deal with the fallout.

Second, “there were many Jews both in Ukraine and in Russia and as the Prime Minister of the Jewish State, I felt a special responsibility to them.

So all the talk about “being on the right side of history” by supporting Ukraine is nice, but complicated for Israel given its own existential needs, Bennett said.

He put in place a policy of providing humanitarian assistance, but he feared US pressure to provide weapons, a move that “endanger both the Jews” in Russia and Israel’s interests in Syria.

“So when pressed by two sides, I went a third way,” he said.

To extricate himself from that difficult situation, while at the same time using his ties to possibly help end that war, Bennett understood that if he acted as a mediator he could also set out a strategy of neutrality for Israel.

The connection he had Putin, Bennett said, was a “rare commodity” at that time.

“There was no one else that had the trust of both sides,” he said, except to some extent Turkish President Erdogan.

Bennett, therefore, instituted an Israeli policy of rendering humanitarian assistance, including a field hospital, but not providing weapons.

He knew that if he didn’t find an alternative policy he would be between a rock and a hard place, “I would be forced to provide weapons and then I would be endangering both the Jews” in Russia and Israel’s interests in Syria.

Israeli mediation in March 2022 was an idea he initiated Bennett recalled. He contacted Biden, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and explained that he could be a communications “pipeline” between Putin and Zelensky, adding that he also looped Scholtz into that conversation.

But it was Zelensky, who feared for his life, that requested the Moscow visit, Bennett recalled.

After his return to Israel, he held “talks [on the telephone] back and forth, Putin-Zelensky, Zelensky-Putin” in a “marathon” push that also involved Israel’s National Security Council. Those efforts augmented negotiations going on in Belarus in March, Bennett said.

Putin’s decision not to assassinate Zelensky was essentially a concession with regard to his perceived goal of de-Nazifying Ukraine and he was also willing to back away from his disarmament demand.

Bennett was able to secure a concession from Zelensky that he would back away from wanting to join NATO.

“I was under the impression that they both wanted a cease-fire,” but in the end, he said, negotiations did not halt the hostilities.

Bennett said that at the time he thought he had taken the right stand to visit Moscow and to attempt to mediate an end to the war, but that was ten months ago and in the end, it's unclear what the impact of his efforts were.

The situation is different now, he said, adding that it was "legitimate" for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to change Israel's policy with regard to the Russian-Ukrainian war.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 06 Feb 2023 01:11

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 06 Feb 2023 12:06

Roop wrote:X-Post from the Kaveri & Aero-Engine: News & Discussion thread...

NRao wrote:... And, if - as I personally expect - China, as we know it today, ceases to exist ...
Interesting, this is the second time (as far as I can recall) you have spoken about this possibility. Please do tell -- explain your reasoning. I am interested. (Probably not on this thread, let me know where you put your reply, if you do so. Thanks. ).

BTW, I agree with you about the funding -- funds will be made available for things that are deemed to be of sufficient vital national interest. The only question is, is Kaveri one of those interests?

One reason to not rule out this possibility is that one reason China's stability was pegged on - was delivering constant quality of life improvements to Chinese. The Chinese didn't care for freedom and other things as long as they saw material improvement in their lives. To do this China needed to deliver 5% + economic growth. But it was all done base don unsustainable investments. Now those unproductive investments are coming home to roost.

So China may long term grow only 3%. This could lead to mass protests and even breakdown of stability. This is a black swan event and can happen anytime.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 06 Feb 2023 13:22

YashG wrote:One reason to not rule out this possibility is that one reason China's stability was pegged on - was delivering constant quality of life improvements to Chinese. The Chinese didn't care for freedom and other things as long as they saw material improvement in their lives. To do this China needed to deliver 5% + economic growth. But it was all done base don unsustainable investments. Now those unproductive investments are coming home to roost.

So China may long term grow only 3%. This could lead to mass protests and even breakdown of stability. This is a black swan event and can happen anytime.

Going by how the US attempted regime change in Russia by triggering a war instrumentalising Ukraine which has only resulted in Russians firmly reuniting behind Putin, and the same type of military aggression being prepared against China using Taiwan, there is little chance that the Chinese people - who owe their new found prosperity to CCP - will start rebelling against the Chinese regime, irrespective of how many reasons they have to like or dislike it.

Sorry for the OT.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 06 Feb 2023 17:18

Cyrano wrote:Going by how the US attempted regime change in Russia by triggering a war instrumentalising Ukraine which has only resulted in Russians firmly reuniting behind Putin, and the same type of military aggression being prepared against China using Taiwan, there is little chance that the Chinese people - who owe their new found prosperity to CCP - will start rebelling against the Chinese regime, irrespective of how many reasons they have to like or dislike it.

a democratic China could very well be more nationalistic and prone to adventures than a communist hobbled one. Careful what we wish for.

srin · Post by **srin** » 06 Feb 2023 17:44

Oil’s New Map: How India Turns Russia Crude Into the West’s Fuel

India is playing an increasingly important role in global oil markets, buying more and more cheap Russian oil and refining it into fuel for Europe and the US.

Yet New Delhi has faced little public blowback because it’s meeting the West’s twin goals of crimping Moscow’s energy revenue while preventing an oil supply shock. And as Europe ramps us sanctions, India is only going to become more central to a global oil map that’s been redrawn by Vladimir Putin’s year-long war in Ukraine.

India shipped about 89,000 barrels a day of gasoline and diesel to New York last month, the most in nearly four years, according to data intelligence firm Kpler. Daily low-sulfur diesel flows to Europe were at 172,000 barrels in January, the most since October 2021.

The Asian nation’s importance is expected to expand after fresh European Union sanctions on Russian petroleum exports take effect Sunday. The ban will remove a huge volume of diesel from the market and see more consumers, especially in Europe, tap Asia to fill the supply gap.

That will make cheap Russian oil even more attractive to India, which relies on imports to meet around 85% of its crude needs. The nation’s refiners, including state-run processors that are responsible for meeting domestic demand, ramped up exports last year in order to profit from higher international prices.

Under EU guidelines, India is likely operating within the rules. When Russian crude is processed into fuels in a country outside of the bloc such as India, the refined products can be delivered into the EU because they’re not deemed to be of Russian origin.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 06 Feb 2023 19:28

V_Raman wrote:
NRao wrote:A rather long, but worth it read:

The operative thought: "frustrates the Neocons". Not the trade corridor.

This explain the attack on Adani. Thx for posting NRao-ji. As always - BRF enlightens in impossible ways!

The article spells out the mechanics of the INSTC fairly well, but misses a bigger picture.

The Adani affair has a Chinese hand behind it - not US, in my opinion.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 06 Feb 2023 22:52

KL Dubey wrote: The article spells out the mechanics of the INSTC fairly well, but misses a bigger picture.

I would be interested in what this "bigger picture" is.

The Adani affair has a Chinese hand behind it - not US, in my opinion.

Two comments:

* The Evergrande real estate fiasco (in China), was rumored to be the CCP attempt to cut BlackRock and Soros to size. Both have lost a substantial amount, per a source, when computed as a percentage

* More pertinent to this thread, both the Neocons and CCP have a common goal: to cut India to size. They (not nations) may or may not act in concert, but certainly, they will not get in each other's way. (After they deal with their common enemy, they will turn on each other - the historically time teated Islamic way.)

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 07 Feb 2023 00:37

Beyond the purge being conducted in Ukraine, we have the following from the Polish PM office

https://twitter.com/PremierRP_en/status ... 9553396738

PM @MorawieckiM : The war in #Ukraine is not proof of Russia's strength. This war is a test of strength for the West. We face a clear choice: either the victory of Russia and the defeat of the West, or the renaissance of Western civilization.

And,

https://twitter.com/Trollstoy88/status/ ... 5839241216

Polish PM Morawiecki urged Zelensky to "temporarily transfer" the territories of western Ukraine under protection of Poland: "The western territories of Ukraine will be safe if they temporarily come under the protectorate of the Polish state."

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 07 Feb 2023 00:55

where have I read that before - Yes, transfer JK for India to fully realize its democratic potential. Do they have MMS, Shuka and kanwals? They have a kerjriwal that we can clearly see.