Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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skumar
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by skumar »

Vayutuvan wrote:
skumar wrote:Russia's response to Sweden's and Finland's formal application to join NATO is baffling.
Not really, skumar ji.

At the moment, he/Russia can't open another front or two. Better secure Donetsk/Luhansk and possibly Odessa. That is proving to be hard going.
Before Russia initiated this conflict, I am sure they would have gamed this scenario.

Moscow is < 500 kms from Ukraine border and < 800 kms from Finland border. Saint Petersburg, which is the 2nd biggest city in Russia and is known as the Cultural Capital of Russia, is on the border with Finland. It does not make sense (to me at least, others may have more insight) to cry about NATO presence in Ukraine and not in Finland.

Also, once Finland and Sweden are part of NATO, they will have NATO infrastructure one way or the other. Hence Putin saying he has no problems with them joining NATO but any "expansion of military infrastructure into their territories" will draw a response is baffling. If he has to deter them, he has to deter them now.

The only reason I can think of is that Russia knows that Finland and Sweden will not get into NATO - Turkey blocked earlier but it looks soft and some other country may have a stronger block later. Or he will initiate a conflict when he thinks they are on the verge of approval.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by skumar »

Sorry this is OOT on this thread and I have been warned but cannot resist a one liner.
YashG wrote: ..But why should he expend so much of his political capital on setting the affairs straight in defence.... the common man who votes doesnt even understand difference bw screwdriver giri and domestic capabilities. Its useless for modi to spend time on improving defence - its political stupidity that he would never do.
Apologies in advance. If you are saying this, you have not understood Modi at all.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

There won't be any Ukraine in a few months...
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ks_sachin »

Tanaji wrote:What seems to be Russian plan after the fighting is over? If Russia manages to get its land bridge, how does it propose to hold on to it? There will no doubt be continuous provocations by Ukraine aided and abetted by its allies… how does it plan to tackle that?
They will cross that bridge when they come to it!!!!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

skumar wrote:
Before Russia initiated this conflict, I am sure they would have gamed this scenario.

Moscow is < 500 kms from Ukraine border and < 800 kms from Finland border. Saint Petersburg, which is the 2nd biggest city in Russia and is known as the Cultural Capital of Russia, is on the border with Finland. It does not make sense (to me at least, others may have more insight) to cry about NATO presence in Ukraine and not in Finland.

Also, once Finland and Sweden are part of NATO, they will have NATO infrastructure one way or the other. Hence Putin saying he has no problems with them joining NATO but any "expansion of military infrastructure into their territories" will draw a response is baffling. If he has to deter them, he has to deter them now.

The only reason I can think of is that Russia knows that Finland and Sweden will not get into NATO - Turkey blocked earlier but it looks soft and some other country may have a stronger block later. Or he will initiate a conflict when he thinks they are on the verge of approval.
The Russians always had an issue with the possibility of Ukraine and Georgia becoming a part of NATO. This was something that they have been saying right from the round 1 of NATO expansion east since 1997. To that extent they have not really cared about the Baltic republics. Perhaps historically those have never been a part of Russian sphere of influence. But Ukraine and Georgia were a separate issue.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

There might not be a Ukraine left in a few months...
Seeing how Ukranians behave they need deradicalisation as well and for that to happen this cess pool of a country must cease to exist.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Jay »

There might not be a Ukraine left in a few months...
Seeing how Ukranians behave they need deradicalisation as well and for that to happen this cess pool of a country must cease to exist.
With all due respect, the way some posters use the terms deradicalization, and denazification w.r.t Ukranians, those words have lost their meaning. This seems to be straight out of Russian propaganda ministry and honestly, it does not square with the reality. I mean I get it, you support Russia and you have your own reasons, but common a nation which elected a Jew as its President is Nazified en masse?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

ks_sachin wrote:
They will cross that bridge when they come to it!!!!

But they are not very good at bridge crossings..

Sorry couldn’t resist…
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ks_sachin »

In which case they shall have to sink or swim Tanaji....
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ks_sachin »

Jay wrote:
There might not be a Ukraine left in a few months...
Seeing how Ukranians behave they need deradicalisation as well and for that to happen this cess pool of a country must cease to exist.
With all due respect, the way some posters use the terms deradicalization, and denazification w.r.t Ukranians, those words have lost their meaning. This seems to be straight out of Russian propaganda ministry and honestly, it does not square with the reality. I mean I get it, you support Russia and you have your own reasons, but common a nation which elected a Jew as its President is Nazified en masse?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Deans »

Jay wrote:
There might not be a Ukraine left in a few months...
Seeing how Ukranians behave they need deradicalisation as well and for that to happen this cess pool of a country must cease to exist.
With all due respect, the way some posters use the terms deradicalization, and denazification w.r.t Ukranians, those words have lost their meaning. This seems to be straight out of Russian propaganda ministry and honestly, it does not square with the reality. I mean I get it, you support Russia and you have your own reasons, but common a nation which elected a Jew as its President is Nazified en masse?
When referring to Denazification, I don't think anyone is talking about Hitler's Germany, but about an ideology which was opposed throughout Europe, until the start of this war. In its Ukrainian avatar, the Neo Nazi's are Anti Russia/Orthodox Church and less Anti Semitic, only because there aren't many Jews left for anyone to bother about. Zelenski being Jewish is irrelevant. He has not control over these groups.

Having lived in Russia and done business in the Ukraine, I viewed the people of both countries as no different from 2 neighboring Indian states. Ukrainians spoke Russian out of choice. Ukraine was like a younger brother, that was a more corrupt, less democratic and more inefficient version of Russia. The extent of radicalisation among Ukranians in the last 10-15 years is very surprising to me and could only have happened with the active support of the US.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Jay wrote: you support Russia and you have your own reasons, but common a nation which elected a Jew as its President is Nazified en masse?
Excellent question, one that must be asked - why is Russia talking about denazification as a justification for this SMO when no one else in Europe seems to mention it?

Actually there were regular media reports on the rising influence of Ukranian extreme right for many years, especially after 2014, but they tapered off to zero since around 2019. Some years ago there was even a letter by a bunch of 50 odd US congressmen highlighting this issue, you can google it.

Here is an excellent history and summary on it.


I think Dreizin is actually a bit soft on how he describes the Azov behaviour in the recent years, and especially since the war started. There are umpteen videos of their Nazi parades and activities, a lot of them even involve children and pre-teen boys and girls and ados doing despicable things. The kind of atrocities these scum have done and posted brag videos about will make your stomach turn and blood curdle. As I've said many times before Europe turned a blind eye and connived with the US to weaponise these guys against Russia, but such adharmic deeds will blow back on Europe for years to come unless the present young generations of Ukraine are deradicalised.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

These Ukranian right wing Banderite militias extensively use Nazi symbols but also Norse Viking and other pagan symbols and totems and rituals. Basically anything that glorifies rascist bigoted behaviour towards the other, and revels in barbaric cruel acts bordering on psycopathy. While Nazi atrocities of the past were mainly directed at Jews, they also killed and raped Romas, Gitanes, and any other people considered racially inferior.
Today the same racist cruelty is directed towards non-jew Russophone groups by these extremists, funded by rich Jewish oligarchs, therefore they are neo (meaning a new type of) Nazis. They have done exceedingly well to deserve that title.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Here is a recit / Russian propaganda or whatever you may think, but they present pretty hard evidence of US involvement in the rise of neoNazism in Ukraine. Same model gave rise to Islamic extremism in Pak & Afg and weaponised Taliban against USSR, isn't it? This is just a different flavour.

https://telegra.ph/NATIONALISM-FOR-EXPORT-05-19

Its perhaps not an accident that the recent Buffalo, NY supermarket shooter was wearing the Nazi black sun logo which is extensively used in Ukraine, and was full of Nazi rhetoric. When state support fertilizer is thrown generously these scum breed superfast everywhere.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

If all this sounds outlandish, please check the background of Victoria Nuland Under Secy of State Dept and Victoria Spartz neé Kulheyko US Rep Congresswoman born in Ukraine, and the timing and activities of their visits to Ukraine.

If you can keep western media under your thumb, you can get away with anything in broad daylight, no need to hide or go covert. It's all been done in plain sight!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Cyrano wrote:If all this sounds outlandish, please check the background of Victoria Nuland Under Secy of State Dept and Victoria Spartz neé Kulheyko US Rep Congresswoman born in Ukraine, and the timing and activities of their visits to Ukraine.

If you can keep western media under your thumb, you can get away with anything in broad daylight, no need to hide or go covert. It's all been done in plain sight!
Here is a walk through of the Azov battalion: 4) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSKqqw511do&t=2s

A family tree of the Kagans by Gonzalo Lira: 2) https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTCy8pVWIAA ... name=small

BTW, the Institute of War Studies (IWS) is run by Kimberly Kagan, sister-in-law of Victoria Nuland, the author of all the color revolutions across the world, including the one in Ukraine in 2014. (ISW maps are real good, but the narrative is misleading)

Vera & Donald Blinken donated to the Soros Open Source Archives, now called the Blinken Open Source Archives (OSA). Their son, Anthony, is the current Sec of State. And, Soros has called Modi a fascist.

All these characters + Albright (daughter of Josef Korbel), Clintons, and recently Obama have a declared goal of "intervention" when they think other nations are not behaving like they want them to
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Three quick points:

1) NATO Expansion: What Gorbachev Heard, from US National Archives

People present at teh discussions:
Image
Michail Gorbachev discussing German unification with Hans-Dietrich Genscher and Helmut Kohl in Russia, July 15, 1990. Photo: Bundesbildstelle / Presseund Informationsamt der Bundesregierung.

"Declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major, and Woerner"

2) NATO expansion. This is just one of a few articles:

US: Lockheed Stock and Two Smoking Barrels

3) Unrelated directly to RU-UKR, but there has always been a mechanism to finance all these junkets - without facing the economic consequences. Here is a one hour video on the empire that the Brits still run:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=np_ylvc8Zj8
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Yet another French journalist married to a Ukranian woman who lived in Donbass for years explains how the Gestapo/Staasi equivalent SBU and right wing neonazi militias killed people, ran torture houses, raped and burnt at will in the eastern D & L regions for years and the Kiev regime was expert in disinformation. Gut wrenching.

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Deans »

NRao wrote: BTW, the Institute of War Studies (IWS) is run by Kimberly Kagan, sister-in-law of Victoria Nuland, the author of all the color revolutions across the world, including the one in Ukraine in 2014. (ISW maps are real good, but the narrative is misleading)
Yes. I followed ISW at the start of this war, but it has been compromised and its reporting seems no different from the facebook posts of the
Ukraine ministry of Defense.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

There are more and more witnesses and reports coming from nonMSM journos - who have no studios, no corporates backing them and putting their lives in risk out of basic humanity and their personal quests for truth.

The evidence piling up against the Kiev regimes is staggering and when they are tried, it will be as poignant and historic as Nuremberg trials.

I suddenly realise the ENORMITY of what Russia is doing - they are stopping a 21st century holocaust. And I can't bloody comprehend why all of Europe including ma belle France, Red Cross, UN etc are brushing this under the carpet and backing this Kiev regime to the hilt. I feel like hanging my head in shame, but I will personally support these truth chasers until the people of eastern republics get justice.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ks_sachin »

Cyrano this is great power politics. Why are you surprised?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Jay »

Deans wrote:
Having lived in Russia and done business in the Ukraine, I viewed the people of both countries as no different from 2 neighboring Indian states. Ukrainians spoke Russian out of choice. Ukraine was like a younger brother, that was a more corrupt, less democratic and more inefficient version of Russia. The extent of radicalisation among Ukranians in the last 10-15 years is very surprising to me and could only have happened with the active support of the US.
Dean ji, thanks for the perspective. I too have visited Russia but almost 15 years ago and having access to both Ukranian and Russian circles my observation of them and their outlook matches your almost to the point. I think where I differ is in the point below
The extent of radicalisation among Ukranians in the last 10-15 years is very surprising
Since the early 2000's Ukraine wanted to move away from Russian influence in an aggressive way as they feel that a weakened Russia is their one opportunity they truly had in the last 100+ years. It's not like UKR's want to hurt Russia, they just want to have nothing to do with Russia and frankly I do not blame them. All this angst about being a US poodle to hurt Russia is in my opinion not entirely accurate. UKR as a nation certainly did pivot hard towards the West. UKR has an existential angst about Russia being a millstone around its neck while the rest of Europe is moving forward and Russia certainly feels that losing UKR from its sphere of influence is something that will leave an cultural mark on their H&D, hence cannot permit this to happen.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

ks_sachin wrote:Cyrano this is great power politics. Why are you surprised?
Because as a Bharatiya and Hindu, I still have managed to keep my sense of guilt free innocence and inherent belief in goodness of every living being including man. But I'm not naive either. I do recognise horror when I see it and can't help but recoil. All these events make me realise how important it is to preserve that innocence and belief within self and my family and friends and try to foster it in every community I'm part of.

I can't cynically accept it saying I'm not surprised the world is like this (I'm not saying you are being cynical !) because the day such horrors stop surprising us, we would have lost that innocence everyone is born with, they will also stop stirring us, then we risk becoming inert bystanders, then complicit by inaction/tolerance of evil and finally one day we risk becoming forced or willing perpetrators. I don't want to start on that path so I retain the right to be surprised, that reaction is important for me, tells me I'm not losing it.

That's how I see it, I don't insist others should see it the way I do, YMMV...
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Jay saar,
Having interacted regularly with a few Ukranian refugees for the past couple of months I can see that they got jack lighted by images of Western prosperity and social order. They are surprised that so many people in France wake up at 4 AM or work night shifts to do jobs that pay minimum wage and struggle to find housing and all don't go to palaces on the Riviera for vacations. I'm unable to understand they're naive misled or what! These are middle aged people with grown up children. Anecdotal of course but that's my experience.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

The term Pakraine is very appropriate and kudos to BRF for coining the term. In power politics you need the bad guys to conduct your secret mayhem, destruction of the opponent and further your deeper insidious agenda. Hence, the Goondas cultivated by the US Deep state are the creme d la creme, with bragging rights of THE BEST in the world etc. The Brits also cultivated their own goondas during their rule. They were adept at taking advantage of any perceived differences in people and widening them for their advantage. Today the lectures from the West on "human rights" is such a contrast of sanctimonious dung dished out to the rest of the world. The Brits have far flung lands which they control to this day and fight for retaining them. In the Ukr Rus context Ukr was former USSR, its people are seeped in Rus culture. The breakup of fUSSR was done quite hastily without regard to its people and culture. Rus was arm twisted into accepting such terms with its leadership highly compromised. This tussle is to settle those terms.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Shanmukh »

Jay wrote: Since the early 2000's Ukraine wanted to move away from Russian influence in an aggressive way as they feel that a weakened Russia is their one opportunity they truly had in the last 100+ years. It's not like UKR's want to hurt Russia, they just want to have nothing to do with Russia and frankly I do not blame them. All this angst about being a US poodle to hurt Russia is in my opinion not entirely accurate. UKR as a nation certainly did pivot hard towards the West. UKR has an existential angst about Russia being a millstone around its neck while the rest of Europe is moving forward and Russia certainly feels that losing UKR from its sphere of influence is something that will leave an cultural mark on their H&D, hence cannot permit this to happen.
The main problem is that Ukraine is not really one nation. The borders of the current Ukraine were only meant as an administrative unit of Soviet Union. The east of Ukraine - Novorossiya - is really Russian-Cossack. The far south-west is Hungary. Sure, the Ukraineans can pivot wherever they want, but they should give up the lands east of the Dnepr to Russia and Uzhgorod to Hungary and then pivot west. The reason why they won't do it is because all the productive regions are in the east, which they want. They want the resources of the Russians and Cossacks, but they don't want to accommodate their concerns. Which is why Poroshenko was talking about how Ukrainean speaking children would go to universities, while Russian speaking children would live in caves.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

And Poland historically had territories in western Ukraine including cities like Lviv, and has some designs on it even now. The present country is a very artificial construct.

The core Ukraine in the centre was a meeting point and battle ground for large and powerful empires - Austrohungarian, Russian, ottoman, polish etc and made it impossible for them to ever flourish.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

This is gonna hurt the west

Official rates from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation from Saturday:

▪️dollar 58.89 rubles (-3.52)
▪️EUR 60.9 rubles (-4.04)

Except perhaps Finland whose gas supply will be cut off from tomorrow
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Jay »

Cyrano wrote:
Because as a Bharatiya and Hindu, I still have managed to keep my sense of guilt free innocence and inherent belief in goodness of every living being including man. But I'm not naive either. I do recognise horror when I see it and can't help but recoi
Cyrano ji, I feel the same way but conclusions are different. The way Britain was colonists, Russia is similar to that towards the smaller euro-caucus region. Historically, UKR always wanted to get away from Russian influence and suffering such as the Holodomor horror show along with many other.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

Like you, I cannot help but recoil, but at the length Russ is going to devastate UKR and itself and get itself into this quagmire. These two entities are locked in a spiral which will consume both the nations completely and the US/NATO will be more than happy to oblige their demise.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

I tend to agree, but all that I've studied so far indicate an unprecedented level of lies, deceit, disinformation and corruption in Ukraine. And militias unleashing horror with state sponsorship. That's why that state must fall.

Small example: They cite holodomor as a victimisation which it is, but the deceit comes when they spin in was exclusively targeted by Russia on Ukraine.

From the same Wiki pade you cited:
The Holodomor famine was part of the wider Soviet famine of 1932–1933 which affected the major grain-producing areas of the country


Russia is historically far from being a saint but in this affair they are largely on the right.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by SandeepA »

The lesson I see for India is how easy it is for BIF to exploit faultlines in a society to the extent that it takes just a decade for brothers to loathe each other to come to a war like this. We have our own set of neo-nazis to be wary of and I see the exact same seeds being sown. Khalistanazis are first trial balloon. Striking similarities to say the least
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

30 minutes ago

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ks_sachin »

Cyrano wrote:
ks_sachin wrote:Cyrano this is great power politics. Why are you surprised?
Because as a Bharatiya and Hindu, I still have managed to keep my sense of guilt free innocence and inherent belief in goodness of every living being including man. But I'm not naive either. I do recognise horror when I see it and can't help but recoil. All these events make me realise how important it is to preserve that innocence and belief within self and my family and friends and try to foster it in every community I'm part of.

I can't cynically accept it saying I'm not surprised the world is like this (I'm not saying you are being cynical !) because the day such horrors stop surprising us, we would have lost that innocence everyone is born with, they will also stop stirring us, then we risk becoming inert bystanders, then complicit by inaction/tolerance of evil and finally one day we risk becoming forced or willing perpetrators. I don't want to start on that path so I retain the right to be surprised, that reaction is important for me, tells me I'm not losing it.

That's how I see it, I don't insist others should see it the way I do, YMMV...
Interesting perspective although being unfazed by such things does not mean an acceptance of it or tolerance of it. Having seen some of the depravity I have I prefer people to surprise me with their goodness. I will be good to them without any explanations.
So you are saying that your moral out look is because you r a Bharatiya and Hindu? Interesting.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Vayutuvan »

skumar wrote: Before Russia initiated this conflict, I am sure they would have gamed this scenario.
But initial phases of the invasion probably didn't go as per what was gamed. They did not expect that Ukrainians would perhaps put up so much resistance. Now Russian Army is going to be bogged down in Ukr for a time to come, Putin has no go but to let events unfold as they will.

Russians should have invaded immediately in Dec 2020 or early 2021 when the US was very divided or soon after NATO pulled out of Afghanistan. West led by the great khan have a nice template now in case Russia repeats "Special Forces Ops" in Finland. But Finns are only 5 million as opposed to 41 million Ukr. Did Finland fight any wars recently after WW II? I don't think so. Probably they are much softer than Pakrainians.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

A few interesting updates:

*****
https://mobile.twitter.com/aaronjmate/s ... 9139562496
NYT Editorial Board, usually a reflexive supporter of US militarism, is realizing that shunning diplomacy to escalate a proxy war with a nuclear power is not a good idea. @BernieSanders & the Squad should read this before approving their next $40 billion.

Opinion | The War in Ukraine is Getting Complicated, and America Isn't Ready U.S. support for the war is not guaranteed.
*****
The Leaders of France, Germany, and Italy Favor Negotiations to End Ukraine War
In recent weeks, the leaders of the three largest EU countries by population — France, Germany, and Italy — have all come out in favor of negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow as a way to end the fighting in Ukraine.

Unlike President Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi have all spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.

The three European leaders have all signed off on sending weapons to the Ukrainians but have also been calling for a ceasefire. After speaking with Putin by phone on Friday, Scholz wrote on Twitter: “There must be a ceasefire in Ukraine as quickly as possible.”

In an address to European Parliament last week, Macron said, “We are not at war with Russia.” He said that Europe’s “duty is to stand with Ukraine to achieve a ceasefire, then build peace.”

Draghi met with President Biden last week, and after the meeting, the Italian leader, who previously discouraged talks with Russia, said it was time to start thinking about a peace deal. “We agreed that we must continue to support Ukraine and put pressure on Moscow, but also begin to ask how to build peace,” Draghi said.

*****
Analysis: Fearing Russian cutoff, German industry braces for gas rations race
FRANKFURT, May 20 (Reuters) - German big business is drafting a plan to use an auction system to help ration available supplies in the event Russia cuts off its gas, although some fear it could punish smaller firms.

......

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Croatian President to Instruct Ambassador to be Against Finland and Sweden in NATO


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China Spent Over $6 Billion on Russian Energy Imports in April
China kept buying more energy from Russia, with purchases of oil, gas and coal jumping 75% in April to over $6 billion, even as domestic demand slowed due to a resurgent virus and the US and Europe moved away from purchases.

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Cyrano
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

An important point:
Azov was just one of the neoNazi militias that was allowed to fester in Ukraine, albeit the biggest and the most publicised.

Now that they're decimated / captured in Mariupol, elensly Regime will soon be claiming that "the evil Nazi inspired force that had influenced everyone is gone and Ukraine is free of neoNazis."

That will again be disinformation BS because:
- About 20-30% of Azov members may still be active spread across other military units
- Many who didn't hole out in Azovstal have melted into the population
- There are several other supremacist and criminal militias like Aidar, Right Sector, Pravyi Sector, white hammer, Svoboda, Sector 14 and a bunch of others spread all over Ukraine big and small.

It's inconceivable for me that all these groups can operate freely for years without having influenced people around them, especially the youth whom they target for recruitment. Young boys barely 10-12 years old now refugees in Poland were filmed teaching ukronazi songs to their polish classmates, all singing in chorus. Surely they don't understand the full import but it's a very worrysome sign

So denazification and deradicalisation must continue for quite some time to come.
Deans
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Deans »

Cyrano wrote: Except perhaps Finland whose gas supply will be cut off from tomorrow
Finland gets its Gas (and Electricity) cut without even joining NATO !
NRao
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Deans wrote:
Cyrano wrote: Except perhaps Finland whose gas supply will be cut off from tomorrow
Finland gets its Gas (and Electricity) cut without even joining NATO !
For refusing to pay in Rubles

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/finland-sa ... -supplies/
Deans
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Deans »

Shanmukh wrote:
The main problem is that Ukraine is not really one nation. The borders of the current Ukraine were only meant as an administrative unit of Soviet Union. The east of Ukraine - Novorossiya - is really Russian-Cossack. The far south-west is Hungary. Sure, the Ukrainans can pivot wherever they want, but they should give up the lands east of the Dnepr to Russia and Uzhgorod to Hungary and then pivot west. The reason why they won't do it is because all the productive regions are in the east, which they want.
True. Our office in Russia had Ukrainians among whom there was a East - West divide. Those from East Ukraine spoke only Russian and were indistinguishable from their Russian colleagues. In the Ukraine itself there was increasing discrimination against ethnic Russians in the last decade. I agree with Jay that Ukraine wanted to pivot towards the West, but it was encouraged (in my opinion) to do so, by being anti Russia. The one thing a buffer state (between NATO and Russia, like Finland has been) should realise is that it needs to have friendly relations with both sides. Ukraine, since 2014, has taken sides.
Deans
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Deans »

Vayutuvan wrote: Russians should have invaded immediately in Dec 2020 or early 2021 when the US was very divided or soon after NATO pulled out of Afghanistan. West led by the great khan have a nice template now in case Russia repeats "Special Forces Ops" in Finland. But Finns are only 5 million as opposed to 41 million Ukr. Did Finland fight any wars recently after WW II? I don't think so. Probably they are much softer than Pakrainians.
The Russians had no intention of invading any other country, which belies the notion that Putin wanted to recreate the old Soviet Empire.
I would however have thought that if they chose to attack in Feb 22, they would have planned far better than they did. I think the triggers for the invasion were:
- Ukraine joining NATO enhanced partnership. June 20. Weapons start flowing into Ukraine.
- Zelensky taking a more anti Russia, pro NATO stance. June 20 onwards.
- Biden getting elected. Nov 20
- US policy becoming more anti Russia. Jan 21 onwards,
- Apr 21. NATO asks Russia to halt its buildup along Ukraine border (preparation started just before that).
- June 21. Putin-Biden Summit fails. Oct 21. Russia stops cooperation with NATO.
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