Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

[Cyrano]

If a tanker sinks, the cost of spill cleanup and env, fishing, tourism liability and damages could be 100x the value of oil + tanker itself. To what extent does insurance cover such liability?

May be this business remained a cartel because a couple of large sinks in a year could sink the insurer and his Re as well. Need to look up Erika for ex. which sank near France a few years ago.

[ldev]

I think it is very important to turn our logic on its head.

Start with - "there is a full fledged war going on". Visit pretty much all aspects of what it means to be in a full fledged war. Then we can - at the very tail end - figure out Euro, Rubles, etc.

This is about "A new world order". Not what is the loss if my tanker full of oil sinks.

However, to answer your question, Russia HAD proposed Russia carries the risk (100%) until the tanker reaches the destination port. (The reason is built-in: Russia was/is in competition for world ranking. Hardly cares about small, irrelevant (WRT "World Order") details.) Nothing to do with your arguments - which are perfectly fine.

Precisely. That is why India is buying Russian crude on an "as delivered" basis. Rosneft is responsible for shipping and insurance i.e. until the crude is discharged in an Indian port, no payment is due. But there is a shortage of tankers, primarily because of longer shipping times e.g. traditionally Russian oil by tankers used to just cross the Baltic Sea from the primary Russian oil terminals such as Primorsk and off load in Rotterdam or Gdansk, total turnaround time was 3-5 days. Now to supply Asia, those ships have to do a ship to ship transfer somewhere in off the coast of Africa or in the Mediterranean Sea and the turnaround time is 2 weeks. Similarly Gulf crude which used to make the relatively fast voyages to Asian ports now has to reach European Baltic ports. People in the oil business are concerned about supply, shipping and tanker availability and insurance. New World order is an alien language to them

[ldev]

If a tanker sinks, the cost of spill cleanup and env, fishing, tourism liability and damages could be 100x the value of oil + tanker itself. To what extent does insurance cover such liability?

May be this business remained a cartel because a couple of large sinks in a year could sink the insurer and his Re as well. Need to look up Erika for ex. which sank near France a few years ago.

Exactly, look at the financials of Munich Re, the world's largest re-insurer. I think last year they made annual premiums of ~$50 billion and yet their net income was less than $ 1 billion. It is a very risky business...a hurricane here and there and an oil platform spewing oil can cause havoc with their financials.

[Cyrano]

Is shipping Russian oil from Vladivostock over Indochina sea - Andaman straits an option? Assuming Russia can pipe it's crude until Vvstk...

[NRao]

Precisely. That is why India is buying Russian crude on an "as delivered" basis. Rosneft is responsible for shipping and insurance i.e. until the crude is discharged in an Indian port, no payment is due. But there is a shortage of tankers, primarily because of longer shipping times e.g. traditionally Russian oil by tankers used to just cross the Baltic Sea from the primary Russian oil terminals such as Primorsk and off load in Rotterdam or Gdansk, total turnaround time was 3-5 days. Now to supply Asia, those ships have to do a ship to ship transfer somewhere in off the coast of Africa or in the Mediterranean Sea and the turnaround time is 2 weeks. Similarly Gulf crude which used to make the relatively fast voyages to Asian ports now has to reach European Baltic ports. People in the oil business are concerned about supply, shipping and tanker availability and insurance. New World order is an alien language to them

WRT India, I just do not see any "shortage" of anything - oil, gas, or tankers. April data did show a marginal decline (1%) in processing oil (in India specifically), but it was not due to a lack of oil supplies.

That said, it is possible Russia feels a tanker shortage. But, I just do not see the Russian shortage effecting India - my feel is that the Indian imports of Russian oil is too low: As Samir Saran said 0 into anything is still 0 (though I think he was playing games - which is great, that is all the silly Europeans
- since Alexander - understand).


However, as I said earlier, this oil/gas stuff is a great past time and therefore meaningless in the present moment. It is about a new world order. And that is what the leaders are playing for.

[Vayutuvan]

Exactly, look at the financials of Munich Re, the world's largest re-insurer. I think last year they made annual premiums of ~$50 billion and yet their net income was less than $ 1 billion. It is a very risky business...a hurricane here and there and an oil platform spewing oil can cause havoc with their financials.

There are multistage linear programming formulations to de-risk. Also Theory of Stochastsic DiffEqs and Ito's integral. Nobody can insure against black swan events. By the very definition, they are unpredictable.

That $1 billion is profit out of the air - they produced nothing yet they made money.

[Vayutuvan]

So unless the beneficiary is happy to have his claim paid in rubles it's a non starter.

India will be happy to be paid in rubles or barter something.

[Vayutuvan]

If a tanker sinks, the cost of spill cleanup and env, fishing, tourism liability and damages could be 100x the value of oil + tanker itself. To what extent does insurance cover such liability?.

Do you think Russia would care with those kinds of niceties in the middle of an economic war on their economy and a real war with Pakraine <-- NATO <-- The US?! They will thumb their nose at Japan/SoKo/China or wherever they are routing the ship.

[NRao]

Is time on Ukraine’s side?

he united North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has survived more than a hundred days of brutal fighting. But cracks have recently emerged on both the diplomatic and domestic fronts, along with talk of a negotiated settlement of the war on terms most Ukrainians now reject. Rarely discussed in this new phase, hidden among the cracks, looms a legitimate, realistic concern: what happens when and if Ukraine and the United States differ on what constitutes an acceptable outcome to the war? Now is not the time to talk of concessions Ukraine may one day choose to make. But is it not too early to consider what the United States should do if, as now seems possible, Ukraine demands total Russian withdrawal and the U.S. is willing to accept a partial withdrawal?

Meanwhile the war continues, with no end in sight. Among diplomats, however, things have begun to stir, kicked off by a Jovian warning from former U.S. secretary of state Henry Kissinger that the war could widen if negotiations between Ukraine and Russia do not begin “in the next two months,” based, he said, “ideally” on a return to an undefined “status quo ante.” Kissinger’s warning triggered an angry rebuttal from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said Kissinger had 1938 on his calendar. A Ukrainian parliamentarian added it was “truly shameful” that Kissinger could recommend “giving up on part of the sovereign territory” of Ukraine as a “way to peace.”

In the face of barbaric Russian assaults and maximalist demands, the Ukrainian position on negotiations seems to have hardened. Now, many officials argue, Russia would have to withdraw to its February 2014, pre-Crimea annexation border with Ukraine, not the February 2022 de facto border from which Russia launched its current attack. Is this Ukraine’s ultimate demand? Or a negotiating position? Either way, it prompted a rush of Western concern. French President Emmanuel Macron cautioned Kyiv that “we must not humiliate Russia.” While U.S. President Joe Biden and other NATO leaders have repeatedly stressed they will not impose negotiating terms on Ukraine, still Biden felt the need to insist on a “negotiated end to the conflict,” hinting clearly the U.S. preference for a compromise solution to the war. In addition, Italy laid out a four-point peace plan with the underlying message that the war end not with victory over Vladimir Putin’s Russia but with a negotiated solution acceptable to both sides.

The cracks on the domestic front are more subtle but still clear in their likely impact. The GOP’s congressional leadership continues to support large-scale American military aid to Ukraine, but a growing GOP bloc opposed to current levels of aid has emerged on Capitol Hill and on the campaign trail. If, as current polls suggest, the Republicans win control of Congress in November, America’s leadership of the global response to Russian aggression in Ukraine would be challenged at home and surely weakened.

Reports from Moscow suggest Putin is banking on just such an outcome to the November elections. In other words, Putin may feel time is on his side, and he could be right, as an ugly battlefield stalemate continues week after week, month after month, with hundreds of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers (and Ukrainian civilians) dying daily, millions displaced from their homes (many of which are now rubble), and neither army able to overwhelm the other.

Much may yet depend on three basic interrelated issues. First is whether Ukraine can sustain the fight — hold ground, inflict losses, maintain home front morale. The answer hinges on a continuing flow of Western arms and diplomatic support, not only from the United States but also from western Europe. And whether that support continues hinges, in turn, on the willingness of Western electorates to live with the side effects of this war — higher inflation and energy costs, shortages of energy, wheat, and other basic products. Already the war is being squeezed off the front page by domestic issues such as gun control and abortion. Continuing support for Ukraine may soon erode, if it hasn’t already.

The second issue is military. Although Ukrainian forces have so far prevailed in northern Ukraine, including in defense of Kyiv, they are clearly struggling to maintain their position in the Donbas. Whether this shattered country, even if supported by continuing Western military aid, can continue to blunt relentless Russian attacks, is still open to question. Ukraine’s population is less than one-third the size of Russia’s. Its economy is one-ninth the size of Russia’s. So far Ukraine has performed brilliantly against heavy odds. Possibly a combination of mounting casualties, stunning depletions in military equipment, and dreadful morale problems may cause the Russian offensive to stall and lose ground, but the question stubbornly remains: for how much longer can Ukraine continue to hold off a desperate Russia?

Furthermore, Putin has hinted that he will use any weapons, including nuclear weapons, if necessary, to prevail in the war, certainly to avoid defeat. Were the United States to up the ante and give the Ukrainians longer-range missile systems with ranges beyond 50 miles, the besieged Russian autocrat has cautioned, “we will draw appropriate conclusions from this and use our weapons, of which we have enough, to strike at those targets that we are not striking yet.”

Putin does not appear to be a leader stealthily edging toward a deal with Ukraine. Rather, he seems to think that Russia can fight for as long as it takes to achieve his ends.

The third issue concerns the impact of the war and of Western sanctions on the Russian people. Whether Western economic sanctions can do enough damage to the Russian economy to force Putin to readjust his war aims remains uncertain. History gives scant cause for optimism. Economic sanctions have rarely, if ever, caused nations to abandon what they regarded as vital national security objectives.

Also, Russian public opinion about the war can be read in different ways. Recent polling by the Levada Center in Moscow suggests almost half of the Russian people “unconditionally” support Putin’s war, an additional 30% also support it but with “reservations,” and 19% oppose it. As Russian deaths increase and wounded veterans return to their homes, opposition may grow, as it did with the Soviet war in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

Two other factors must be kept in mind when judging Russian public opinion. One is a deepening unhappiness among younger Russians who have enjoyed Western contacts and tastes but see them vanishing by the day. Many thousands have already left the country. They are of a once expanding middle class, apparently eager, as one Russian language teacher put it, “to get back to our ordinary lives.” The other factor is the tens of thousands of courageous Russians from many professions and walks of life, who have publicly opposed the war in scores of letters sent directly and openly to the Kremlin. By way of the internet, those letters have been collected and analyzed by John Francis, an American Russia scholar.

Finally, as the war stumbles along, one wonders whether the tight alignment of national interests between the United States and Ukraine will survive. With the passing of time and changes in their domestic politics, it’s likely that differences will emerge. For example, if a negotiation of some kind does begin, and Ukraine actually does insist that Russia withdraw to its pre-2014 borders, abandoning Crimea and the Donbas, and, predictably, Russia declines, what would the United States do? Most American experts doubt that Russia would give up Ukrainian territories Putin regards as virtually sacred and gains for which Russia has paid so high a price in lives and treasure in this war. Would the United States continue flatly to side with Ukraine, even if it didn’t agree with the Ukrainian position, or press Kyiv to abandon large portions of the country? (According to Zelenskyy, Russia already occupies 20% of Ukraine). Would the U.S. in effect side with Russia as a way of ending the war? We pose these questions not to advocate Ukrainian concessions now or later, but merely to suggest that political, military, and economic considerations may make them inescapable in any serious negotiation.

It would be wise for Western leaders to coolly consider realistic options before a crisis of this sort arises. But, to be clear, it would be unwise now for them to talk of divisive compromises that may later have to be forced on Ukraine as the price for peace.

[ldev]

There are multistage linear programming formulations to de-risk. Also Theory of Stochastsic DiffEqs and Ito's integral. Nobody can insure against black swan events. By the very definition, they are unpredictable.

Maybe you can advise Indian oil PSU's to model these formulations!! It may change their buying patterns!! They might buy more from Russia!! They might even risk a Black Swan event to save some money.

That $1 billion is profit out of the air - they produced nothing yet they made money.

Oh, they did produce something.....they refined that crude and sold the refined products i.e. gasoline, diesel etc. to Europe and the US. Maybe not a billion dollars. The assumption was that they bought directly from Russian/Rosfnet. They could have bought via a large commodity broker such as Trafigura or Vitol through whom Rosfnet dealt with extensively, long term relationship and all that. Maybe they kept half the spread....Reliance claims they are making a crack spread of $30 per barrel, which is surprisingly lower than many others. Their refinery is top notch so maybe the price they bought the crude at did not give them the benefit of the full Russian discount if the commodity broker kept some of it. Anyway this kind of information is is not publicly available so we are speculating.

[ldev]

So unless the beneficiary is happy to have his claim paid in rubles it's a non starter.

India will be happy to be paid in rubles or barter something.

Yes? So why did India negotiate for an "as delivered" basis for buying Russian crude? At least that is what IOC is supposedly doing for the 6 million barrels they have contracted for. IOC could have paid for the crude, asked Russia to insure it and if the ship sinks happy take the rubles isn't it. The fact that they did not do that but asked for the oil on a delivered basis tells me that IOC do not want rubles, they want oil or nothing.

[bala]

Oil is too important a commodity for day-to-day living. Countries will find a way to get Oil somehow, despite tanker shortage and insurance cover. Nations like India, China and Russia can come up with an alternate system that bypasses the rest. China shares a border with Russia, pipelines are the answer. Empty tankers will be put to use by leasing temporarily to those who need them.

[NRao]

A retired UK Army head is complaining:

The West is not thinking strategically about the Ukraine war

The former head of the British Army says the Government is leading a 'let’s see how it goes strategy' through a lack of decisiveness

[Vayutuvan]

Maybe you can advise Indian oil PSU's to model these formulations!! It may change their buying patterns!! They might buy more from Russia!! They might even risk a Black Swan event to save some money.

Arrey baba, suddenly getting angry. kyon bhayya? Is it out of the realm of your imagination and out of the realm of possibility that somebody on BRF is able to advise IOC?!!!

Raghuram Rajan jaise log kahan see tapak pade? He went to a school where algorithms invented by my advisor's twice-removed fourth cousin are being taught.


Munich re financials from Wikipedia

ROE 12%+
Gross Premiums ~Euro 59 billion, Net result Euro ~3.5 billion.

Where are these $58 billion and $1 billion coming from? Maybe you just stated from memory. I don't want to nitpick. Income wise you are in the ballpark but Net is 3x+ of what you stated.

The larger point is that any company which is part of a mature industry (mfg. or service) will have paper-thin margins. Their size prevents others from entering. Market share/its hoary past is how they are able to make Euro 3 billion out of thin air.

If there is a discontinuous change in the environment in which they operate, either they have to change or go out of business. Soveriegn states like India and Russia have much deeper pockets than a 142 yr old company.

[Vayutuvan]

The fact that they did not do that but asked for the oil on a delivered basis tells me that IOC do not want rubles, they want oil or nothing.

What are the chances that they won't get oil? As for not burning bridges with other suppliers, do you think that one of the world's largest oil consumers would not have leverage?!

You are making an ant into an elephant and vice versa.

[S_Madhukar]

Is shipping Russian oil from Vladivostock over Indochina sea - Andaman straits an option? Assuming Russia can pipe it's crude until Vvstk...

Doesn't Russia already supply China LNG from the Yamal gas fields in Siberia(China has a stake there so...).
They have icebreaker / tanker till Bering strait and then they can use normal tanker after that. The route exists but not sure Russia has the fleet or if there are spare tankers for the route

[Pratyush]

Is time on Ukraine’s side?

Didn't the Brookings boss get his electronic communications sized by the FBI for being an unregistered foreign agent.

[kit]

Now there is nothing much preventing India from taking up more Russian crude., The crude, slightly inferior to Arab Medium grades because of higher sulphur and nitrogen, suits most Indian refineries, which have been upgraded., so, indeed they can use Russian Urals !!

I dare say Russian crude can replace a good chunk of middle east oil

Now you know why the khujli with middle east is ..esp with the "comments"

Money talks ., India has an alternative to middle east oil., if the Russians price theirs differentially

Thats geopolitics for you.

If there is one rising power and who had gained the most out of the Rus/Uke fall out ., it is India. Full stop. Its time has come. What and how it deicides will influence the "world order". Effectively India and China can together end the Bretton woods petrodollar dominance in the world economy. The west would rather not see this happen., so want Indians to be in perpetual conflict inside as well as with China.

Game theory analysis will predict an entirely different outcome if China comes to terms with India., it will have to eventually. And when that happens., the west would lose its relevance, first Europe then America.

Russia has overtaken Saudi Arabia to become India's second-biggest supplier of oil behind Iraq as refiners snap up Russian crude available at a deep discount following the war in Ukraine, industry data showed. Indian refiners bought about 25 million barrels of Russian oil in May or over 16 per cent of all their oil imports. Russian-origin crude hit 5 per cent of India's total seaborne imports in April for the first time, rising from under 1 per cent throughout 2021 and Q1 2022, the data showed.

https://www.news9live.com/business/russ ... ier-176169

[NRao]

Is time on Ukraine’s side?

Didn't the Brookings boss get his electronic communications sized by the FBI for being an unregistered foreign agent.

Yes. And he has resigned (or removed) from the presidency of the Brookings.

However, I am sure Qatar can give him a few million dollar mansion where ever he wants .................

Means nothing. Brookings is run by Richard Kagan. Richard's wife was the author of the Maidan events (2014). Enough said

[ldev]

Maybe you can advise Indian oil PSU's to model these formulations!! It may change their buying patterns!! They might buy more from Russia!! They might even risk a Black Swan event to save some money.

Arrey baba, suddenly getting angry. kyon bhayya? Is it out of the realm of your imagination and out of the realm of possibility that somebody on BRF is able to advise IOC?!!!

Raghuram Rajan jaise log kahan see tapak pade? He went to a school where algorithms invented by my advisor's twice-removed fourth cousin are being taught.

Since you are name dropping famous people/4th cousin , I first met the author/trader who brought the phrase "Black Swan" into the public discourse way back in 2007, long before he became a household name, and in a one on one conversation then he confirmed his option positions then which he rolled over for the next year which resulted in a huge upside when 2008 happened!! And unlike Rajan and your 4th cousin who are academics, this author was a former trader with "skin in the game". So let us not have a pi**ing context here OK? We all have access to such techniques/people.

Your presumption is that you know better than what Indian PSUs are doing for oil purchases. Unlike Reliance for whom this is an opportunistic play for profits, with the resultant refined product exported, Indian oil PSUs have to ensure that the pumps do not go dry in India and that can change the risk/reward equation quite a bit. It makes for a more conservative approach, something that I agree with. But they have got very good terms for India from Russia in getting oil on an "as delivered" basis from Russia.

[NRao]

I am seeing a good number of "data points" that are interesting, yet very, very concerning.

Not in any order:

1) Perhaps the most concerning is the former Foreign Minister of Poland Radoslaw Sikorski, who suggested/recommended that Ukraine should be provided with nuclear weapons. Russia's response was swift (and very predictable): The Foreign Ministry of Russia Threatens Poland with Nuclear Strike

Now, why is this concerning? Because Radoslaw Sikorski's (a Polish citizen, no US relations at that level) wife is Anne Applebaum - an avowed neocon, with close relations with Victoria Nuland!! IMO this is not a coincidence. I believe this to be part of a planned game (no, I do not have a URL - yet). (No one of that stature will say something like that without clearance from handlers, IMO)

2) Uncle Macron needs a boost in the polls? Macron calls for French budget defence boost in 'war economy'. "war economy" is what has caught the attention of data point collectors. And, rightly so. There is a small, yet powerful, undercurrent to expand the war in Ukraine

3) Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) had (May 1, 2022) re-introduced the AUMF - legislation giving power to the US President to intervene in Ukraine IF Russia used either chemical or biological weapons. With Russia’s War on Ukraine, Kinzinger Introduces New AUMF

There has been a section of the American polity that has been chafing at the bit to start a war with Russia (neocons absolutely hate "Russia")

4) There has been an argument - in the background, that is coming to the front - about a war is great for the economy. No one better than Paul Krugman to promote it - been doing so for ages: War, what is it good for?

4) China:
a) The discord between the US and China - specifically after the meet in Singapore. This is real. The relationship is in decline.
b) Related directly to #1, the scenario where China is provoked (like Russia) to attack and China attacks a USN carrier, the response (as suggested by neocons in the US) is a nuke in retaliation.
c) Sanctions by the US on China (very much like the Russian sanctions). Nothing new there. BUT, gaming for a sanction by China on the US is very interesting - imagine China threatens India for trading with the US (just a thought).

[bala]

INSTC operationalised as Russia sends consignments for Indian port

India, Iran and Russia have given momentum to operationalise the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) - the shortest connectivity route for Indo-Russian trade - days after the Iranian Foreign Minister visited Delhi.

The foundation of the North-South transport corridor was laid on September 12, 2000, in accordance with an intergovernmental agreement signed between Russia, Iran, and India. Azerbaijan joined this agreement in 2005. This agreement was ratified by 13 countries (Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Armenia, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Oman, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkey, Ukraine). The project has a number of components – Northern and Western Europe – the Russian Federation, Caucasus – Persian Gulf (Western route); Central Asia – Persian Gulf (Eastern Route); Caspian Sea – Iran Persian Gulf (Central Route).

https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes. ... t/92199588

[bala]

NRao,
The US will instigate China to take on India, QUAD notwithstanding. The US is itching to downsize both China and India in the next go around. Russia is traditional enemy number 1, and the US have them tangled in Ukraine. India did its best on Galwan river to show the resolve. However, China is beefing up for a 2nd round fight with India. We know the Eurotards will not sympathize with India. The US will do nothing and they will sit back and enjoy the show.

[kit]

INSTC operationalised as Russia sends consignments for Indian port

India, Iran and Russia have given momentum to operationalise the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) - the shortest connectivity route for Indo-Russian trade - days after the Iranian Foreign Minister visited Delhi.

https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes. ... t/92199588

Beginnings of the parallel "sanctioned" economies has begun ., dawn of a new chapter

[Rakesh]

Are Sanctions Hurting Russia?
https://www.theamericanconservative.com ... ng-russia/
13 June 2022

Russian businessmen view sanctions as manageable and even a blessing in disguise.

[ramana]

Folks last time I admonished a couple some left in a huff.
Why this urge to name drop etc?
You don't know, who I know!!!
It's not even India's war.

[Pratyush]

NRao,

WRT, The polish minister and his spouse.

I have observed from afar that there is strong undercurrent of wanting to right historical wrongs with Russia. Within the political spectrum of the nation. No less than a former PM of Poland stated that in relation to Russia in a discussion about about bringing Russians back from the cold back in 2016.

I can't speak about how widespread this belief is within polish society.

But it is something that we need to understand in greater detail.

[Vayutuvan]

Your presumption is that you know better than what Indian PSUs are doing for oil purchases.

Maybe I do know better than Indian PSU baabooz, hain jee?!!!

In any case, I don't want to get banned nor do I want to get you banned. Last from me.

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... 7uH9scgdHA ---> Report: US gov't is secretly encouraging US companies to buy more Russian fertilizer because the supply shock is driving food prices further up.

[bala]

Food supply is critical from India and speculators are being driven away.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1536988859887673345

Just look at the speculation by Netherlands. They buy wheat from India and sell them to Turkey (I might add they inject pollutants to wheat). Turkey rejected a consignment of wheat from India citing phytosanitary concerns. Kya logic hai bhai!

http://www.millenniumpost.in/business/w ... yal-480753

Turkey rejected a consignment of wheat from India citing phytosanitary concerns. The wheat exports belonged to Kolkata-based conglomerate ITC and the wheat consignment was actually bought by the Netherlands. Goyal said, adding that he had full faith in the quality of the export by "such a big company".

[vijayk]

Some Biden officials privately express concern that rather than dissuade the Kremlin as intended, US sanctions have instead exacerbated inflation, worsened food insecurity and punished ordinary Russians more than Putin or his alliesm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... #xj4y7vzkg. Corporate ‘Self-Sanctioning’ of Russia Has US Fearing Economic Blowback
Officials seek to clarify guidance so there aren’t unintended impacts on inflation, supply chains.

[ramana]

Very interesting self-goal or hit wicket...

[dnivas]

Here is the link to the list of exceptions. Hilarious. Pretty much every loophole has been incorporated
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/ ... a_gl6a.pdf

Look at this link [June 2022 update]
https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues ... qs/updated

1010. My company transports Russian oil for sale to the United States and third countries. Can I continue to transport or sell Russian-origin oil without violating sanctions pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 14024?

The energy sector of the Russian Federation economy itself is not subject to comprehensive sanctions. However, prohibitions or restrictions may apply to certain energy-related transactions under several sanctions authorities, including prohibitions issued pursuant to E.O. 13662, E.O. 14024, E.O. 14066, E.O. 14071, and E.O. 14068.

Next question and answer on how to bypass sanctions

978. For transactions authorized under Russia-related General Licenses (GL) 6A, 7A, or 8C what is an example of a permissible funds transfer involving a foreign financial institution sanctioned pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 14024?

GLs 6A, 7A, and 8C do not authorize a U.S. financial institution to maintain (or open) a correspondent account or payable-through account for or on behalf of entities subject to the prohibitions of Directive 2 under E.O. 14024 , “Prohibitions Related to Correspondent or Payable-Through Accounts and Processing of Transactions Involving Certain Foreign Financial Institutions” (Russia-related CAPTA Directive). Consequently, in order for a U.S. financial institution to engage in transactions authorized under these GLs (e.g., a funds transfer related to energy), all such funds transfers must be processed indirectly through a non-sanctioned, non-U.S. financial institution.

too many nuggets on this link to even type up, but the whole sanctions regime with built in loopholes is just hilarious. The next political science moron who comes to india and starts preaching, we should read the treasury page question by question

[Cyrano]

India won’t bend on new WTO global plan on food exports: sources

India is one of the only three nations fighting the plan to put blanket restrictions on the right of nations to stop foodgrain exports to the World Food Programme at the ongoing 12th WTO ministerial conference

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 85401.html

[Cyrano]

Gas prices in Europe rise by 25% today to $1300.

Biden is expected to announce a 150B$ aid package to help Europe buy gas from Russia.

[dnivas]

Gas prices in Europe rise by 25% today to $1300.

Biden is expected to announce a 150B$ aid package to help Europe buy gas from Russia.

HAHAH trur. The europeans have turned out to be the biggest dosa whiners on the planet, worse than the opkis with their 100 billion in losses dur to Anti terror GOAT.

This is just getting funnier and funnier. Talk about Russians squeezing German testimonials and the German reaction is priceless. Glad we have an amazing Govt in India.

Let's see. so Germans block Nordstorm 2 and then sanction Gazprom and other Russian entities.
Gazprom now says that because Germans have not delivered theor compressors that was sent to Canada for service., they have to reduce Gas supply.

Tuesday they had one set of testimonial squeezing and another round of more German squeezing coming up on Thursday.
https://www.dw.com/en/gazprom-to-furthe ... a-62143155

Russian energy giant Gazprom said on Wednesday it would further reduce the capacity of gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 67 million cubic meters (2,366 million cubic feet) per day.

The decision comes into effect at 01:30 a.m. Moscow time on Thursday (2230 UTC on Wednesday), Gazprom said, adding that the halt was due to the "technical condition of the engine" at a compression station.

German reaction:

How did Germany react?

Robert Habeck, Germany's economy minister and vice-chancellor, said the move was intended to drive up prices.

"It is obviously a strategy to unsettle and drive up prices," he said on Wednesday, adding, "We can currently buy the necessary quantities from the market, albeit at higher prices."

Sure you go and sanction but the other side just got to keep grinning and keep sending you commodities. The germans now better bypass their own sanctions and send those compressors to gazprom stat. if not with more squeezing, when winter starts, German have to eat some humble pie and restart Nordstorm 2.

Nord Stream 1 is the older of two gas pipelines running from Russia to Germany. It is the main pipeline of Russian gas to Europe, especially after the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine has been reduced since the war.

Germany has halted the launch of the newer pipeline, Nord Stream 2, in response to Russia's aggression toward Ukraine.

In recent weeks, Russia has cut off its gas deliveries to several European countries over a spat about the payment currency

[dnivas]

1.8 Trillion of US stockholder wealth wiped out in the last few days.
Futures down again another 2% now.

Personal story

I bartend a couple nights a week and there is this local who is rah rah Biden and rah rah USA for years. He would come couple of nights a week and then get his bourbon and tell the other customers USA number 1, UA is gonna kick Russia back to Japan.

Anyway a few days ago, he comes in sad [I dont have CNN anymore but leave food channel on one of the TV's , coz the propaganda is just too much ) and he is dejected and sad. I ask him what's up and he is like my portfolio is down 40% . he had 2 million in AAPL which is now down 30% and his 401K is also down 20-30%. This bloke was ready to retire and he is mad that all this inflation and the drop in market has reduced his portfolio to 60% of what it was in just 2 months.

Sad to see him in that state, but again I keep my political thgts to myself at the bar. The only neutral ppl I have seen at the bar so far are the ex - military types 40 years or older.

Al the gung ho woke types with their rasta apple iwatche strap or lgbtqbbq straps on their iwatch are living in their own bubble

[dnivas]

More towel throwing June 16,2022

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/16/us-euro ... aught.html

On Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron said the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his officials will have to negotiate with Russia “at some point.”

Macron and his German and Italian counterparts (who are all in Kyiv Thursday) have all called for a cease-fire and for a negotiated end to the war, urging Russian President Vladimir Putin to hold peace talks with Zelenskyy, to no avail.

But questions are now being asked over how long its military assistance can last, particularly if the conflict continues for years.

When Russia’s invasion started on Feb. 24, the West’s unified opposition to the war, and robust response in imposing a raft of tough sanctions imposed on it, was striking.

Four months into the conflict, however, and Western leaders are increasingly coming under pressure from their electorates as the fallout from the conflict — essentially, soaring food and energy costs as a result of supply chain disruptions and sanctions on Russia — hit consumers hard.

Croft said she had recently attended meetings and policy forums where “there was an appreciable divide” between those officials calling for more fulsome military assistance for Ukraine, and “those suggesting that it is time for Ukraine to consider making concessions at the negotiating table, citing the ruinous impact of rising commodity prices.”

“Many in Europe want the war to end as soon as possible — even if it means territorial losses for Ukraine - and believe that the EU, rather than the U.S. or China, will be ‘worse off’ as a result of this conflict,” the report on the poll’s findings, co-authored Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev, said.

^ everyone said that from the very beginning. The euros better walk the talk all the way to the sunset.

[Cyrano]

Clearest admission that US/NATO have been training, arming and weaponising Ukraine for a fight with Russia since 2014.

Ffwd to 18:00 and the secretary general of NATO will say all that in person, under no duress !

[bala]

France is okay with UPI and RuPay
NPCI International has signed an MOU with Lyra Network of France for acceptance of UPI and RuPay cards in France.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1537303167368835072
"Considering India doing 5.5 billion UPI transactions per month, this strategic partnership will definitely prove to be a game-changer in the digital payments ecosystem." Honorable Union Minister of Communications, Electronics & Information Technology.