Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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Aditya_V
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Aditya_V »

Would be it accurate to say Ukranians have their "Lebensraum" today, History has turned on its head here.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ks_sachin »

ldev wrote:
NRao wrote:The problem in Ukraine is that it is a military conflict run by a group in the West who are neither military persons, nor diplomats, BUT, have gained control over much of the diplomatic (and economic) apparatus, under a very weak political leadership.
And facing them, the conflict on the Russian side is being run by a group who are neither military persons, nor diplomats, but as ex KGB operatives are now siloviki. And because it was the siloviki micro managing the Russian operation in the early phases of the war, it was a disaster for them.
An own goal...The Russians were not reading Sun Tzu...

I just remembered this quote from Chernobyl (the HBO Series) "Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid"..

The Soviet Union paid it.

Russia is paying it.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Good post dev ji, agree with your observations
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by S_Madhukar »

Qatari minister schools UK journo politely in pure English. The Britshit journo sounds so entitled.
In an exclusive interview with Sky News, Qatar's Energy Minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi says the West who spent years "demonising oil and gas companies" are now reaping the consequences with soaring energy bills.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEyPUAxnjiI
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by vijayk »

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

An own goal - indeed.

I had intended to cross-ref two of my posts in diff threads, and did not do so, thus the confusion. Self goal!!

The point I was trying to make with a post in this thread with one in the China thread was that this "group in the West" has influenced more than the UKR conflict: China and Iran too.

It has now spiraled out of control.

Well today's news items include
* Ukraine has impounded a Russian ship with grains in a Black Sea port (no idea which port)
* Official Russian embassy in UK twitter account: "#Azov militants deserve execution, but death not by firing squad but by hanging. ...."
* A Ukrainian military official: "need to destroy Donetsk" (the city)
* Haaretz.com: "Jews are never safe under dictators - and Putin's no exception"
* Ro Khanna has come out in favor of Pelosi visiting Taiwan (video of interview with CNN). News reports state his wife Rita owns "many" MIC stocks.
* Italians are accusing Russians of interference in their elections
* Poland is witnessing people wanting to leave EU and join BRICS


Do not think China will disappoint

========================

IMO, this "conflict" has divided the nations into two groups: that led by NATO and the other coalescing around China/Russia.

EU/RU divide, IMO, is permanent. The question I have is how reversible is that between China and the West? TBD

========================

One major observation: both sides are giving up on "India". After making a lot of noise about India-and-oil, "India" has certainly been cancelled among Russian leaning analysts. They are outright saying "BRICS led by Russia and China". One (Alexander) went so far as to state: India will have to decide which side to take. (Nations that want to join BRICS are RU/CN leaning, may not be anti-India, but will certainly dilute India's influence.)

On the flip side the West faction: IMO has given up on "India". Rarely is Quad mentioned and in the past week or so US DoD "News" has pretty much expunged "India". AUKUS and NATO pivoting to the Pacific has reduced the need for "India".

This IMO is what Modi/Jaishankar wanted - India as a pole in a multipolar new world order, certainly not in this environment. Which is why I had posted India needs war reserves of a 6 months or more. But, that too could be TBD

==========================

I think CAATSA and "secondary sanctions" are coming in other ways. I am following a news item on EV tax credits, that have left out every BRICS nation and every nation that has shown an interest to join BRICS - I know the law was passed, not sure if it has been signed. More to come

==========================

Meanwhile, experienced analysts will need to reboot. We will soon have two exclusive worlds to analyze!!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by YashG »

NRao wrote:
One major observation: both sides are giving up on "India". After making a lot of noise about India-and-oil, "India" has certainly been cancelled among Russian leaning analysts. They are outright saying "BRICS led by Russia and China".
I do not know what you mean here. But if im understanding this correctly then I think this is just cotton candy.

As the fastest or I'd say the only major economy that will grow> 5% in 22 & 23, demographic dividend on its side - India is the only country that whole world will look at. Actually our story is just beginning. EU/US chasing market expansion will all come to India.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

YashG wrote:
NRao wrote:
One major observation: both sides are giving up on "India". After making a lot of noise about India-and-oil, "India" has certainly been cancelled among Russian leaning analysts. They are outright saying "BRICS led by Russia and China".
I do not know what you mean here. But if im understanding this correctly then I think this is just cotton candy.

As the fastest or I'd say the only major economy that will grow> 5% in 22 & 23, demographic dividend on its side - India is the only country that whole world will look at. Actually our story is just beginning. EU/US chasing market expansion will all come to India.

Indeed whichever way you look at it., India is the only major power that will grow in economically and politically. Russia will need India when China starts eyeing their far east :((
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... overnment/ beggars belief! claims russia triggered collapse of previous govt of Italy by encouraging sea migration from Africa
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by JE Menon »

>>Russia will need India when China starts eyeing their far east

Correct, IMO. People overplay the Sino-Russian "alliance" of today, forgetting that all such alliances - up until the bipolarity post WW2 were ephemeral and often quickly counterproductive. We can be sure of one thing. Provided we remain steady, Russia will always need a friendly India just in case China gets to uppity, and here's the rub - vice versa. There's a nice triangular equation developing here that people are not paying attention to, and in the final analysis may prove to become the three legs of the tripod that bring long-term stability to the Eurasian landmass. There are lingering issues between India and China, no doubt, and these will continue to exist. But each has an interest in maintaining at least one leg of the tripod, other than that of itself - as otherwise, the whole structure will collapse. Each has a vested interest in tripod-stability.

Now, it may be argued that China does not need the other two legs, and therefore does not need to maintain one leg other than itself. But so long as the US remains a major pole (and it must, even if it means we have to make that happen) China cannot take that position. The European consideration in this is not relevant except as spoiler potential.

Just a thought.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

There are no two other nations that are - TODAY - as in sync as India and Russia:

1) The ONLY two nations (among that count) that repeatedly mention "multipolar", and
2) Putin has been using Indian talking points in his past 2/3 speeches



However, the Sino-Russian drama has to play out. They both have a need for each other, just as the US has a need for Australia/Japan/etc. But, IMO< each is very much aware of the inability of these dynamics to be sustained
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

Beyond the Tripod of Rus-Chin-India relationship, there needs to be joint cooperation in major initiatives that can yield commercial/tech/science progress. I am talking about Aircrafts, Space, Finance, Science, IT, etc., cooperation. Currently the world is dominated by Boeing/Airbus in commercial aircrafts. Both Russia and China have some experience in this area and India is quite a capable partner especially niche areas, IT, insight into western systems, etc. International space station is another area and joint missions to mars and beyond. Finance - an alternate to SWIFT, trade of goods/services is required. If the RCI Tripod comes together and become a third alternative in these areas then the world has true multipolar. I think it is difficult since each nation believes in their own but the combined has more power than the individual. This would take time and many false starts but if Euros can come together for a common purpose I think RCI Tripod should be able to cobble this partnership and benefit immensely.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by YashG »

Chinese are too stupid to do whats right.

I'm not being rhetoric - their level of geopolitical wisdom is immature. Modi was keen on building good relationship with China, Xi should have tried creating an Asian alliance but haha! China instead went ahead and made an enemy out of every nation around them.

Chinese are not changing, they are just too stupid to ever get it. Sometimes a foolish animal with a lot of power will be mistaken as being shrewd , but china is not getting stronger. So no RCI tripod. China will remain a country without good friends.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

YashG wrote:Chinese are too stupid to do whats right.

China will remain a country without good friends.
The "Stupid" part is being injected by our friends the "Deep State" of the MeriCans of Coke. The "Deep State" has infiltrated the Chinese during Mao's time. Prof J. Dewey of Columbia (student was BR Ambedkar) was instrumental with his Red Book. Nixon and his crime partner Kissinger cemented the relationship. This infiltration is the reason why the Mericans and Chines on the surface seem to be at odds but behind the scenes they are buddy buddy. No major program is possible "in cooperation" with others. The odd scenario of Chines and Rus cooperation especially in Ukr tussle is explained by another phenomenon - the Rus infiltration by the "Deep State". Other nations infiltrated are UK, France, Germany, etc. You see the "Deep State" wants to keep everyone just at the right control point, no one particular nation dominates the other. Behind the scenes they orchestrate the dastardly deeds that no one pays attention, e.g., the sacrifice of every Ukr to the last fighting soldier at the altar of the Rus-Ukr tussle.

It will take some time to shake of the "stupidity" which seems to creep up everywhere.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by JE Menon »

>>Chinese are too stupid to do whats right... China instead went ahead and made an enemy out of every nation around them.

It is possible that the Chinese deliberately went ahead and made an enemy out of every nation around them, and further afield for the following reasons:

1. It knew that if N Korea can leverage its limited nuke capacity to get everyone (including Beijing) to the negotiating table, then China should have no problem with its far far more advanced capability.

2. It is using the "outside enemy" against "middle kingdom" mindset deeply ingrained in the Chinese civilizational memory, and therefore in public minds, by creating new enemies to re-stabilise under a different and newer paradigm now being put in place by Xi - a post-Deng/Jiang paradigm, which is more "communist", less "capitalist" as far as the individual Chinese are concerned, and certainly more centrally controlled.

3. With the above Xi is creating a legacy that will be marked for its departure from Deng, and diminishing the leaders in between as a consequence, and for people to measure China after him under a new "Xi Paradigm" which is not so closed as Mao, not so open as Deng, but a "middle path" as it were. They will reconfigure the language of all "global concerns" - climate change, sustainability, democracy, etc - under the new Xi paradigm.

4. They know they can do all this because of the nuclear overhang, and because they are likely willing to lose a few hundred million in an exchange if it comes to that - of course, presuming it does not become an absolute civilization ending global conflagration.

We probably should look at the Chinese civilization, which has survived as long as ours has, as much as we can through the prism they might look at it through, even though we may be far off the mark. So let me say in that spirit, the above could be totally off the mark. It could simply be that they are moving from tactical exigency to tactical exigency, and the result is that they have enemies all around them with whom they will continue moving from crisis to crisis... But the issue here is that either way, they have a good chance of coming out on top in each crisis.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

The difference between the Indian civilization and PRC civilization is the existence of the state.

Indian civilization has survived in the absence of strong state patronage.

The PRC civilization requires a strong state for sustainability.

In this respect antagonistic relationship with major powers without overt warfare makes sense from the point of view of keeping the population blindly supporting the government.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by YashG »

JE Menon & Pratyush _ I agree, their is internal political angle to Chinese geopolitical strategy.

But that is exactly what is wrong - an internal management strategy will be suboptimal to manage external relations and that is exactly what is happening. That should continue to happen, so you cant expect china to do the right 'geo-political' thing.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Aditya_V »

JE Menon, I don't think North Korea with literally no industrial capability is producing such advanced Nukes and missiles, thier TEL look exactly like the Chinese ones.

It is nothing but Beijing doing its Saber rattling through North Korea, threatening Soko and Japan, traditional enemies. A sort of shadow boxing. And as undeniable export hub for illegal tech to rogue nations.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by YashG »

Pelosi is not likely to visit taiwan.

If you needed any proof that sparring with Russia has diluted US focus away from China for a good 2 years, here it is. US is no longer trying to go hard on China.
------------

Even being so remotely engaged in a war - such as with Russia has weakened no.1 economy like US to a large extent. If and when China tries to spar with India, the sparring will be way off the charts and it will setback Chinese ambitions on Taiwan by atleast 5 years or even more. So if the outer limit of taiwan integration for chinese is 2030-2033; Then the inner limit for trying something with India is by 2026. @Sjha, often talks abt 2025.

The other reason is for forseeable reason Indian GDP will be doing +3-4% on Chinese GDP (Atleast in 22,23 & then on...). So we're getting closer. So there isnt a lot of window left.
--------------

Ah! if 2026 is the window, IAF's shiny MRFAs wont even arrive in that time.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Wonder if this is a backdoor for NATO boots in Ukraine

Ukrainian parliament adopts draft law on special status for Polish citizens
The Ukrainian parliament has adopted a draft law to grant special status to Polish citizens in Ukraine, a parliament member said.

The presidential proposal on granting special status to Polish citizens in Ukraine was supported by 283 lawmakers in the 450-seat Assembly, Yaroslav Zheleznyak wrote on Telegram on Thursday.

The new legislation adopted on Thursday allows Polish citizens to legally stay in Ukraine for 18 months after the adoption of the law, Zheleznyak said.

The law grants Polish citizens equal rights as Ukrainians in employment, economic activities, as well as in getting education and medical assistance in Ukraine.

On July 11, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky submitted to the parliament the draft law on establishing legal and social guarantees for Polish citizens in Ukraine, "as a sign of gratitude to the Polish people for their solidarity and support for Ukraine."
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

My thoughts exactly. elensly is running out of combatants, this is a sneaky way of getting Polish troops to face RA.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Roop »

Cyrano wrote:My thoughts exactly. elensly is running out of combatants, this is a sneaky way of getting Polish troops to face RA.
The Poles would be fools to agree to this, if they did. They think this would get the whole of NATO to go rushing in to Ukraine to help them, but NATO is not going to get involved in conflict with the Russians in Ukraine. Most NATO members are not die-hard fanatics (like the Poles) with a Russia-hating complex and a death wish.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

NATO is already very involved in this war. Fighters on the ground might not be there. But to think that they are going to be unwilling to put boots on the ground is premature at this moment in time. If it appears that Ukraine is totally about to collapse. They might put boots on the ground.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Aditya_V »

Roop wrote:
Cyrano wrote:My thoughts exactly. elensly is running out of combatants, this is a sneaky way of getting Polish troops to face RA.
The Poles would be fools to agree to this, if they did. They think this would get the whole of NATO to go rushing in to Ukraine to help them, but NATO is not going to get involved in conflict with the Russians in Ukraine. Most NATO members are not die-hard fanatics (like the Poles) with a Russia-hating complex and a death wish.
It works both ways, Poles always thought Lviv and Galicia region was theirs, the reasons Ukrainians hated the Poles because 1921-1939 the Poles were following a policy of Polonization of the region. The Ukrainians might be giving them a 2nd chance to take over the region.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

Has Kherson fallen yet with 1000 Russian PoWs? Reading reports one would think it was a matter of days…. With the bridges destroyed by HiMars and what not
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

Russia for mkts, connectivity infra links with India

https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes. ... n/93267140
Aug 01, 2022
Russia desires to build connectivity, capital markets and financial infrastructure with India — similar to the model built over decades with Europe - to push bilateral trade to $120-150 billion over the next decade. For the past several decades, the Russian economy was primarily oriented towards the European market, with annual bilateral trade ranging from 750 billion to 1 trillion.

This includes setting up direct trade agreements, developing new logistics routes and related infrastructure, speeding up and digitalising customs procedures, providing both sides with access to debt and capital markets, creating financial infrastructure to facilitate trade and trade financing, and streamlining central banks’ national currency-swap procedures. A complex process that would require substantial efforts from both countries’ governments and their private sectors.

According to Indian figures, bilateral trade during the fiscal year ended March 2021 totalled $8.1 billion, while based on Russian data, this was $9.31 billion. Localising production sites in India and supplying them with Russian raw materials in return for a part of the ready-made products, on the other hand, would make more sense. The Russian automobile industry could be one of the most obvious contenders for the Make in India programme.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

Image

wheat prices are falling since July beginning https://www.mashed.com/914651/the-unfor ... ecreasing/ and this could be the reason ^. West rags once again are misinforming with headlines like 'prices falling as first shipment of grains leave Ukraine' https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock- ... AMrxzofrsi
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

As though Ukraine and Taiwan was not enough, looks like Blinken while in Albania decided to poke Serbians in Kosovo.

Kosovo delays measure stirring tensions with minority Serbs
Kosovo’s authorities have postponed a decision to implement a law on vehicle license plates and identity documents after minority Serbs rioted by blocking roads, turning on air raid sirens and firing their guns into the air
Stable for the moment.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

CNN reporting "US kills al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in drone strike in Afghanistan"
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

https://www.visiontimes.com/2022/06/26/ ... rting.html

German Journalist Criminally Charged, Bank Account Seized, for Deviating From the Official Narrative on Ukraine

Lipp raised eyebrows in March this year, shortly after the Russian invasion, which both she and Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin calls a de-Nazification operation, over comments she made in a video that there were no atrocities committed by the Russians and that the Ukrainian hostilities against its own (Russian speaking) citizens over the past eight years should be highlighted.

Lipp further alleged that the Donbas locals supported the Russian troops and celebrated the de-Nazification operation as a liberation.

In her infamous video she uploaded to her Telegram channel, Lipp alleged that the Donbas citizens had been “thankful that Russia finally did something,” she said.

“Finally, the people here have been liberated from the terror that they’ve been experiencing for the last eight years,” under continuous shellings by Ukrainian national army, Lipp added.

The German empire strikes back
However, German authorities would not stand how Lipp, “the mouthpiece of Russian propaganda,” as she’s been referred to by the German “fact checker” KORREKTIV, just kept on disseminating “misinformation.”

Since then, the agency took no half-measures to make life or work impossible for the Hamburg resident.

Soon after the video went viral, Lipp’s YouTube channel was closed, forcing her to move to Telegram. Her PayPal account was also blocked. Then, they came not only for her bank account, but that of her father, a Russian who lives on the Crimean peninsula.

On top of that, the German prosecutor allegedly seized €1,600 from her bank account without further ado or any notice or explanation.


However, apparently inspired by the anti-Russian position of the German government, the Public Prosecutor’s Office has forged a criminal case against Lipp on the justification that she “encourages or tolerates crimes regulated by the Criminal Code,” the Prosecutor stated in a document that Lipp showed in another, recent video.

A special case
The case against Lipp is a peculiar one, nonetheless. Not only is she charged, but she will also not be heard, the letter said.

“At the end of the letter, he says that they are not going to invite me to a hearing because this would ‘disturb the investigations,’ and that is very interesting, so they are chasing me, but they do not want to listen to me,” she said in the video.

Apparently, Lipp is already considered guilty by decree as she is denied her human right to defend her case in court—a novelty in German legal history—at least since the Third Reich succumbed almost eighty years ago.

Another curious feature about the document, Lipp points out, is that one of the pages bears a big capital Z on top. This is remarkable as many Russian tanks and armored vehicles since the incursion have been emblazoned with an elusive capital Z on them.

Since then, the capital Z has become a symbol of support for the Russian operation, and showing the symbol is therefore considered a crime in Germany.

At the end of the video, Lipp asserted, “What is happening to me can happen to all independent journalists and bloggers, and that is why I would like to propose to you, dear colleagues, that we start working together to support each other against the censorship of the West.”

https://twitter.com/hobeets/status/1538 ... rting.html
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

---Wrong Thread----
Last edited by Rakesh on 02 Aug 2022 18:30, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Post Edited
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Lisa »

NRao wrote:CNN reporting "US kills al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in drone strike in Afghanistan"
NDTV reporting "US kills Doctor Ayman al-Zawahiri in drone strike in Afghanistan"
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Lipp's father is Russian, mother German. I think the German gov has also seized her father's account too.

Meanwhile, a British journo, Graham Phillips, faces the same problem.

Neither can appeal.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

So much for the democratic western world.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Aldonkar »

Pratyush wrote:So much for the democratic western world.
Time for the Indian Gov to lecture Germany on "Freedom of the Press". Remember the Zoo bear episode a few weeks ago!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

I am afraid I would not be reading about any explosive news items from Taiwan, although Chinese fighters are supposedly flying closer to Taiwan than ever before.

However, Tucker happened to mention a similarity between Ukraine/Russia and Taiwan/China.

On Feb 19, 2022, at the Munich Security Conference, Kamala Harris, happened to make a rather long speech, after which Russia lost confidence in Joe Biden and as we know invaded Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022.

A very similar scenario seems to be building WRT Taiwan/China. Instead of Harris, it is Pelosi. And, no matter what Pelosi says, China is likely to conclude that the US cannot be relied on and prepare for an invasion of Taiwan much earlier than preferred.

However, Yves Smith (Naked Capitalisms) observed that Taiwan is so reliant on China that China could cut off Taiwan - just as Russia is cutting off EU using energy - and achieve a knock out punch, and the US can do nothing. Interesting.




Of course, this means the Sino-Russo relation is now cast in stone (Chinese spokesman said something to the effect that China will supply so many drones that Ukrainians will not see the sun or something like that)

++++++++++++++++

Punjab, in India, did come up at one point, as a potential point of conflict.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Will start a similar pair of threads *IF* China does invade Taiwan post or during the visit of Nancy Pelosi. Thanks.
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