Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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ldev
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ldev »

Europe's achilles heel is not oil but gas. Oil is fungible and transportable, gas not so much. And the infrastructure for large scale import of LNG into Europe does not exist as of today. In 12 months, based on the crash construction of LNG terminals, including floating terminals, Europe will just about have enough gas, but that what about this winter? Also LNG terminals for export will be needed to be built in countries which currently do not use LNG. The US has some LNG terminals, Canada none although both countries have a surplus of gas. These countries can add to LNG supply besides the traditional LNG exporters such as Qatar. German Chancellor Scholz is travelling to Canada later this year to talk construction of LNG terminals for LNG exports to Europe. But in the short term of the next 12-18 months, Putin holds the gas cards in his hands.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Never take life seriously. Another examples:

Ukraine and the Contest of Global Stamina
........................

Some officials, including Mr. Biden, cringed when Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said in April that “we want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.”

The president called Mr. Austin to remonstrate him for the comment, then directed his staff to leak the fact that he had done so. But officials acknowledged that was indeed the long-term strategy, even if Mr. Biden did not want to publicly provoke Mr. Putin into escalation.

.....................
:mrgreen:
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Perplexing. This is really going from bad to worse. Former Polish president Lech Walesa and Nobel Peace prize winner:

Former Polish president demands break up of Russia
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Kanoji »

bala wrote:
Rakesh wrote:...decades of self induced hubris clouds one's judgment
I want to expand a little bit on this topic. The West has over a period of time produced people who do not think one bit, they cling onto their bias and reinforce that at every juncture. There are cheer squads set up to reinforce the one-sided viewpoint.
FM S. Jaishankar brought forth this point succinctly when he said "Europe has to get out of the mind set that Europe's problems are the World's problems but the World's problems are not Europe's problems"

But unfortunately for Europe the world have moved away from the situation in the 60's and 70's when the "West" could impose its will on others without using military force.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

NRao wrote:Perplexing. This is really going from bad to worse. Former Polish president Lech Walesa and Nobel Peace prize winner:

Former Polish president demands break up of Russia
Not really, Poland has a very strong anti Russia streak. I have seen the former prime minister of Poland on a panel discussion talking about resolving historical grievance with Russia.

So I see this as just an extension of that.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

Russian firms launch chartered ships to India for smooth transfer of critical raw materials

https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes. ... a/92792127
India and Russia have been in talks to revive the Vladivostok-Chennai shipping corridor as part of partnership in the Indo-Pacific region.

Meanwhile, the first consignment from Russia via Iran has reached the Indian port following operationalisation of International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC). A consignment via eastern branch of INSTC is on its way to India. On July 5, in a series of high-level talks, India urged Iran to facilitate regular use of the 7,200-kilometre long INSTC.

When speaking at the 6th Caspian Summit in June, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia is expanding port infrastructure in the Caspian region. "First of all, we are talking about building the International North-South Transport Corridor. This is a truly ambitious project, a 7,200-kilometre-long transport artery from St Petersburg to ports in Iran and India, " emphasised the Russian president. "An agreement between the Caspian littoral states on transport cooperation, which came into force last year and is aimed at turning the Caspian Sea region into a major international logistics hub, is designed to facilitate a faster launch of this corridor, " said Putin. In 2021, cargo turnover between Russia and India rose by 46.5%.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Neela »

Rakesh wrote:
kit wrote:When will they try get off their self induced paralysis ? Waiting for Godot !!
They never will. This is what happens when decades of self induced hubris clouds one's judgment.

The West truly believes they are in the moral right in this conflict. But neither side are really saints in this conflict.

Russia = Among the worst of Evil in Humanity.
West = The Cynosure and Utopia of Humanity.

Repeat that like a mantra and you will get it ;)

P.S. The MUTUs are the best though. They invest all their energies in aping the West, but are never really treated as equals by the West. As Russell Peters once remarked about MUTUs, "Oi **** Coolie...Move It...." But they are a whole other level of messed up and not germane to this thread.

When you see the takleef that some on BRF have taken over this war, I remember what Ramana-ji always says, "This is not even India's war!" :)

Oh well...let the circus continue....
Let me also add to this. In casual conversation, Germans talk about Russia-instigated WW3. Again EAM's statement rings true "Europe's problems are the world's problem".
Here is a reality check:
Will the following countries join in the war even on just logistics?
- Israel
- Japan
- Taiwan
- UAE - Saudi Arabia - Iran - Iraq - Turkey
- Singapore , Malaysia, Thailand,Vietnam,
- All of South America
- India
- China


Whats in it for these vast swathes of countries if a war breaks out. Only popcorn sales .Heck....would the US risk direct, overt engagement,let alone Canada

West needs to reminded that colonies are long gone and they cannot be coopted into the war.
As for Europe, with shrinking birth rates - they is ZERO chance they will engage on their soil. They will keep Ukraine at much more than arms length and keep fighting a proxy war. NATO is also a proxy . Thats it. At best there will be several fronts on the Balkan states in case of escalation. There will be a mad rush to negotiating table if it inches close to German,Austrian and Polish borders. There is no chance of WW3.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 14071.html

India has started rupee trade settlement. Currently it's with Russia. But has the potential to be implemented for other nations as well.

This is from the Indian POV a response to the cutting off of Russia from the western banking system.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Lisa »

NRao wrote:Perplexing. This is really going from bad to worse. Former Polish president Lech Walesa and Nobel Peace prize winner:

Former Polish president demands break up of Russia
NRaoji,

They want the same for India, just haven't said it yet.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Rakesh wrote::lol:

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... uUjdchoY1g ---> Report: US Consulate General in Mumbai writes letter to Mumbai Port Authority to not allow Russian vessels to call at the port because of US sanctions against Russia. Shipping ministry has forwarded the letter to MEA.
https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... QKsR3cHczw ---> India has taken exception to the “suggestion” by the US consulate in Mumbai that Russian ships should not be allowed at Mumbai port and has asserted to US that it is “India's sovereign right to deal with global partners on national interests”.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

NRao wrote:Perplexing. This is really going from bad to worse. Former Polish president Lech Walesa and Nobel Peace prize winner:

Former Polish president demands break up of Russia
saar RT is blocked in many parts of the world so a screenshot would be great
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by pravula »

Neela wrote:There is no chance of WW3.
Then again, nothing gets the birth rates rebooted as a good old fashioned war…
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

The million man army we started hearing about is likely the last big fundraising event of the KievRegime&Co before it's failed IPO and flight of funds and leaders. EU has seemingly approved another 1.5B€ loan despite some Brussels accountants expressing high recovery risk. By the time all these funds are digested into thin air, Russians will be holding Karamatorsk and the fall season will be justifying it's name.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »


Some one told me of "safeguards" that none of this would happen .. :roll: ..the ukes being ukes, one would be able to buy any American system off the shelf.. China Iran etc are having a good look at America s best
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Shanmukh »

Tass claims that Russian [well, LPR, to be precise] troops have already entered the city of Seversk and it is under their operational control. If this is true, things seem to be moving fast now.

https://tass.com/world/1479721

Here is the original Tass report in Russian. Says that the united troops of Russia and LPR have entered the city and got it under their operational control.

https://ura.news/news/1052569974
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

^^^^^

If true, then the Ukrainians withdrew to defend Bharmuk(sp?)
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Shanmukh »

NRao wrote:^^^^^

If true, then the Ukrainians withdrew to defend Bharmuk(sp?)
If it is true, then the Ukraineans would have withdrawn farther west and towards Slavyansk-Kramatorsk, not south towards Bakhmut - getting to which will be very hard with the Russians already so close to the Bakhmut-Seversk highway. If Seversk has been taken, then Seversk-Soledar-Bakhmut line is gone, and the fall of Soledar and Bakhmut is only a matter of time. The line has been penetrated and turned. Anyway, the Russians were already on the outskirts of Soledar yesterday, so that line is too badly dented now. My guess-they will try to defend the Toretsk-Konstantinovka-Druzkivka-Kramatorsk-Slavyansk line. This, BTW, is the last line of prepared defences that the Ukraineans have. If this also falls - and my guess, it will sooner or later - then the Russians will have to clean up the rest of Donetsk oblast, and will then turn wherever they want, with the full force freed.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Watch this space. Indirect sanctions..... possible

Yellen’s Deputy Rejects Secondary Sanctions for Russia Oil Cap
Adeyemo says he doesn’t see a need for secondary sanctions
Deputy Treasury chief cites incentive to join oil-price cap
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Shanmukh »

NRao wrote:Watch this space. Indirect sanctions..... possible

Yellen’s Deputy Rejects Secondary Sanctions for Russia Oil Cap
Adeyemo says he doesn’t see a need for secondary sanctions
Deputy Treasury chief cites incentive to join oil-price cap
Won't it destroy confidence in US? The insane country that sanctions everyone?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Shanmukh wrote:Won't it destroy confidence in US? The insane country that sanctions everyone?
Everything that five US Presidents since Bill Clinton have worked for, will collapse like a deck of cards...if the US imposes secondary sanctions on India for importing Russian oil. Hoping wiser minds prevail.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chetak »

Rakesh wrote:
Shanmukh wrote:Won't it destroy confidence in US? The insane country that sanctions everyone?
Everything that five US Presidents since Bill Clinton have worked for, will collapse like a deck of cards...if the US imposes secondary sanctions on India for importing Russian oil. Hoping wiser minds prevail.
Sirji,

how much more can the amerikis embarrass themselves, their so called sanctions are mostly impotent and major EU countries like germany have refused to neuter themselves economically just to please the amerikis.

If they don't have the means to enforce their "sanctions" (and clearly they don't) they can only harm themselves if seen as helpless when many sanctioned countries refuse to abide by the sanctions or covertly bust then.

after afghanistan and ukraine, their status and influence is at an all time low, inflation is the highest in decades, trust in the ameriki sovereign state has been lost, and social unrest is beginning to take root because of the ameriki state virtually abdicating it's domestic and global responsibilities

India will not follow any great power diktats that seeks to harm the Indian national interests. The gulf will also not be happy

Everyone is wary of India at the moment because she has a vast capacity to manufacture vaccines and she is also sitting on a huge mountain of grain.

and she currently has unilateral access to both russian, as well as, gulf oil but that can maybe change overnight.

Modi is not puppet singh controlled by the roman mafia to serve offshore interests. He is both unpredictable, as well as, not being risk averse and both of these traits are greatly feared, especially when they together manifest in one commanding general
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

RBI has announced mechanisms for international trade using the Rupee, similar to what Russia has done to make Europe pay in roubles. If that starts to take off even with brics and ASEAN countries, and other middle powers follow with mechanisms to trade using their own currencies, then the dollar hegemony and privileged status of GBP and euro will be under serious threat.

Amreeka must be more pissed by this than anything else. India is showing a lot more balls than anyone expected. But we have no other choice to support INR and protect our forex reserves.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

^^^^^

That, IMO, is a tempest in a tea cup.

Abe, two days before Joe lands SA announces it wants to join BRICS, BoJo becoming an emoticon, Biden family dirt on display, a restaurant US Justice went to for dinner faced 100s of fake reservations and nearly caused it to go into financial ruin, and now Chitti is supposedly is on her way out making way for The Mayor, who will replace Joe by year end, law professors openly arguing with a US Senator about men getting pregnant, American ETF holders of Russian whatever are approaching the Supreme Court, arms donated to Ukraine found on the dark web, ....... and you want to talk about Ukraine and alt reserve currency?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Attacks On India In Western Media Are Attacks On Conservatives

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

This expands on the previous YT posted by Rakesh and is about speakers opinion on India which can be used to justify India's stance on Russia-Ukr tussle. One thing that comes out is that India is viewed as partner in many things and is not disruptive like neighboring China.

Chasing the Monsoon: Life@75

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/sta ... 3172221953
EU goods trade deficit was highest on record in first five months of 22

Imported €113bn more goods than it exported in five months to May, marking largest trade deficit since records began in 1989

This compares with an €84bn goods trade surplus in corresponding period in 21
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

https://twitter.com/s_m_marandi/status/ ... 2245310466
Nato is not Little Red Riding Hood, it's the (not very) Sly Wolf.

The west reaps what it sows.

Image
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

The Times :: Jul 14, 2022 :: President Macron pledges all-out French effort to help Ukraine defeat Russia
President Macron warned France today that the war in Ukraine will turn “very hard” by autumn and pledged an all-out French effort to stop Russia winning.

After reviewing a Bastille Day military parade led by contingents from the former Soviet-bloc Nato states, Macron accused Moscow of using its energy supplies as a weapon and said all Russian gas supplies to France would soon be stopped.

Macron, who has been accused by eastern Europeans of seeking to appease President Putin, used his first television interview since his re-election in April to strike a tough tone in support of Kyiv and the “unbelievable courage of the Ukrainians”.

..................
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by YashG »

Cyrano wrote:RBI has announced mechanisms for international trade using the Rupee, similar to what Russia has done to make Europe pay in roubles. If that starts to take off even with brics and ASEAN countries, and other middle powers follow with mechanisms to trade using their own currencies, then the dollar hegemony and privileged status of GBP and euro will be under serious threat.

Amreeka must be more pissed by this than anything else. India is showing a lot more balls than anyone expected. But we have no other choice to support INR and protect our forex reserves.
If global trade in USD shifted away from USD by even 2-5% in next 2 years, it wud dramatically impact what americans can buy for themselves. It will be atleast a 200bps drag on their growth rate every year from there on. The useless money that US is spending on Ukraine, will come home to roost.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Related to John Bolton's claim of planning coups. A 40 minutes vid response from an ex-intel officer:

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Roop »

Rakesh wrote:Attacks On India In Western Media Are Attacks On Conservatives
He is absolutely right about this. Stephen Harper was a pretty smart dude, unfortunately for him (and the Tories) he didn't have the panache / sex-appeal to women voters that Turdo had. Harper has (in a previous Raisina dialogue) quite candidly and openly admitted that he is a great admirer of Modi and his govt.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

British PM is gone

Now, Italian PM is gone

Is Spain next?

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/stat ... 4090855429
Spain's famers are now also protesting.

After the resignation of Italy's PM due to energy prices and protests, will Spain be the next to fall?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

YashG wrote:
Cyrano wrote:RBI has announced mechanisms for international trade using the Rupee, similar to what Russia has done to make Europe pay in roubles. If that starts to take off even with brics and ASEAN countries, and other middle powers follow with mechanisms to trade using their own currencies, then the dollar hegemony and privileged status of GBP and euro will be under serious threat.

Amreeka must be more pissed by this than anything else. India is showing a lot more balls than anyone expected. But we have no other choice to support INR and protect our forex reserves.
If global trade in USD shifted away from USD by even 2-5% in next 2 years, it wud dramatically impact what americans can buy for themselves. It will be atleast a 200bps drag on their growth rate every year from there on. The useless money that US is spending on Ukraine, will come home to roost.
There is more to it., the US dollar value is artificially kept high now., what happens if American goods and services are no longer much in demand ? Selling weapons has become a past time along with creating conflicts to increase their demand. Of the few things america still has a edge in like the high end ASML machines with American IP are being restricted to avoid losing that frontier. Oirope is getting well done in the oven., US is next. Their usual way would be to print out of their own mess., the world may not want to deal with the American $hit anymore. The day USD value starts to fall would be the day of reckoning of the "mightiest" empire.

Anyone saying India need to pay hafta to Americans by buying American weapons need to think which country they are rooting for in this forum. Its certainly not India.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

NRao wrote:The Times :: Jul 14, 2022 :: President Macron pledges all-out French effort to help Ukraine defeat Russia
President Macron warned France today that the war in Ukraine will turn “very hard” by autumn and pledged an all-out French effort to stop Russia winning.

After reviewing a Bastille Day military parade led by contingents from the former Soviet-bloc Nato states, Macron accused Moscow of using its energy supplies as a weapon and said all Russian gas supplies to France would soon be stopped.

Macron, who has been accused by eastern Europeans of seeking to appease President Putin, used his first television interview since his re-election in April to strike a tough tone in support of Kyiv and the “unbelievable courage of the Ukrainians”.

..................
Macron is bokwasing. Popular support for Ukra-een has evaporated as surely as his parliament majority. Discontent brewing among French military top brass. His only support base today is big industrialists who have launched his political career. He is trying to rein in the military and placate industry bosses with such statements.
Macron's brinkmanship is walking on razor wire, and a fall will be very painful. This winter could see 10xYellowVests as energy prices soar beyond common people's budgets.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Roop wrote:
Rakesh wrote:Attacks On India In Western Media Are Attacks On Conservatives
He is absolutely right about this. Stephen Harper was a pretty smart dude, unfortunately for him (and the Tories) he didn't have the panache / sex-appeal to women voters that Turdo had. Harper has (in a previous Raisina dialogue) quite candidly and openly admitted that he is a great admirer of Modi and his govt.
Well said Roop. Fully agree.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

1) The US Embassy urged its citizens to leave Ukraine urgently

2) Russia Breaks Off WWII Peace Talks Over Japan's Stance On Ukraine Invasion
Russia said it was withdrawing from negotiations with Japan aimed at signing a formal World War II peace treaty because of Tokyo's tough stance against Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

"The Russian side, in the current conditions, does not intend to continue talks with Japan on the peace treaty," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on March 21.

Russia and Japan have never signed a peace treaty to formally end World War II.

One of the key issues is competing claims over territorial rights to the Kurile Islands, which Tokyo calls its Northern Territories. Soviet troops seized them from Japan at the end of the war, and Russia still occupies the island group.

.......
3) Saudi Arabia opens airspace to Israeli flights ahead of Biden visit

Unrelated to Ukraine, perhaps. However, a very interesting development. Commercial only? One wonders.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Putin is already at war with Europe. There is only one way to stop him

Simon Tisdall wakes up. Again!!
He has weaponised food, energy and refugees, spreading economic and political pain across the continent. Sanctions don’t work, a land for peace deal would be a disaster. Only the military route remains
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »


Somehow in their trip to Kiev "something happened" to the French, German and Italian premiers leading them to believe in this " that the war in Ukraine will turn “very hard” " for Russia" by autumn " .. their main reason of visit being to persuade idiotsky that the war is not winnable


hence the hubris., obviously choosing the winning side is important :mrgreen:

I am very curious to know what happened !! .. nothing in the open media
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