Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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drnayar
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by drnayar »

IndraD wrote:https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1 ... 62305?s=20 blinken to Ukraine: do not accept peace offer from Ru-China
Not surprising given his own background!..he is personally invested in a never ending war. He and some in bidens admin have hijacked this war.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Andrei Martyanov mentioned on his yt channel that Putin yawned at Xi's expected proposals for peace plans.

China is the junior partner. Russia needs no military help. If at all China needs military help from others.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Nothing teaches or prepares a country for conflict like experience. That's why China's n point plan was bound to be a dud, idem for its efforts to broker peace. No amount of reading Sun Zoo can replace that.

Peace deals between warring nations need even more powerful and reasonable neutral enforcer(s) who also have a stake in peace being maintained. Else conflict will resume until dissuasive levels of assymetry are reached and a pecking order is re-established.

We have seen how the first part already unfolded. The second part is ongoing now.

I don't think China is in any position to address the protagonists who are not Russia and Ukraine but Russia and NATO.

India has very wisely kept out of peace broking business so far because the pecking order is yet to be achieved. India will play a role in formalising the settlement once the decisive phase is over between Russia and NATO. Dr JS has said this months ago in the coconut babe interview where he also said "Europe's problem....". We should parse what he says very very carefully and seriously.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Vayutuvan »

hgupta wrote:... that bitch, the PM of Italy, basically told him off at Rasina Hill Dialogues, well tough luck, ... is very euro-centric.
and, you sire, objected to my calling these snobbish Euros as "Eurotrash". :mrgreen:
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by yensoy »

West wants to "siege" Russia through sanctions and encirclement. Problem is that Russia is too big to be sieged. It has copious natural resources - energy, minerals, agriculture, forestry you name it. It has talent and education, a whole generation of us derived our knowledge in mathematics and physics from Soviet books. Sure it may not be cutting-edge but it is perfectly viable and technology will find its way in through porous borders with the stans, if not through China and other willing partners. Commercial production of Russian aircraft can resume - the engines may not be state-of-the-art but they will get the job done. It is militarily strong.

2 weaknesses of Russia are that (i) it is a pretty wretched place in the winter and (ii) it has terrible demographics. The annual rite of vacation on a sunny beach is essential to well-being, and willing destinations like Vietnam, Egypt, Sri Lanka, UAE, Israel and even India exist. As for demographics, including the need to feed the meat grinder, it's anyone's guess how it will turn out. The West is going through its own demographic collapse, Ukraine in particular.

In fact, the siege of Russia may be the very medicine Russia needs to stand on its own feet, do it's own "atmanirbhar" equivalent and bring back some national pride. Too bad it had to happen this way.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by gakakkad »

our knowledge in mathematics and physics from Soviet books.
even to this day some of those books have no rivals (Irodov,krotov,kolmogorov,gelfand,fomin etc)..
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by hgupta »

Vayutuvan wrote:
hgupta wrote:... that bitch, the PM of Italy, basically told him off at Rasina Hill Dialogues, well tough luck, ... is very euro-centric.
and, you sire, objected to my calling these snobbish Euros as "Eurotrash". :mrgreen:
Mea Culpa.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

I find this video amusing*, but, I am sure they are serious:



* (When I had a Twitter account - I still have but have forgotten the password and do not care anymore - I used to respond to Tchakarova of being cut-paste. That was 18 months or so ago)
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

How the Iraq war bent America’s army out of shape
https://www.economist.com/international ... t-of-shape
21 March 2023
As it exhausted itself battling insurgents, China re-armed.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Xi, Putin joint statement reveals new stand on Indo-Pacific, plan for G20 meet
Mar 22, 2023 01:14 PM IST

The joint statement issued after the meeting between China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin said the Indo-Pacific strategy ‘has a negative impact on peace and stability’ and pitched for what they called, open and inclusive Asia-Pacific security system’
NEW DELHI: A joint statement issued following a meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping indicates the two countries will jointly oppose the raising of the Ukraine crisis at the G20, just as they have done at two key ministerial meetings hosted by India.

The joint statement, issued following the meeting between the two leaders at the Kremlin in Moscow, strongly opposed the Indo-Pacific strategy, saying it has a negative impact on peace and stability, and committed the two countries to building an “open and inclusive Asia-Pacific security system”.

This is perhaps the first time China and Russia have come together to oppose the Indo-Pacific concept, though Russian officials have often described the strategy as an effort by the West to create a divide between Moscow and New Delhi.

The development comes at a time when China and Russia have worked jointly to stymie efforts, largely by G7 member states, to include text condemning the Russian aggression in Ukraine during the G20 finance and foreign ministers’ meetings hosted by India recently.

Without naming the G20, the joint statement states that the two sides will oppose the use of multilateral platforms to take up “irrelevant issues”. Both Russia and China have said that the G20 shouldn’t be the platform to take up the Ukraine war as it was created to focus on economic issues.

“Both sides firmly condemn the politicisation of multilateral platforms and the attempts of certain countries to insert irrelevant issues on the agenda of multilateral platforms and dilute the primary tasks of the relevant mechanisms,” according to the joint statement in Mandarin posted on the Chinese foreign ministry’s website.

The Indian side has named China and Russia as the countries that opposed the inclusion of text denouncing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – which was agreed at the last G20 Summit in Indonesia – in the draft communiques at the meeting of G20 finance ministers in Bengaluru in February and the G20 foreign ministers meeting in New Delhi earlier this month.

In the context of the Indo-Pacific strategy – which is backed by Australia, India, Japan and the US, all members of the Quad – the China-Russia joint statement described it as “closed and exclusive group structure”. The statement contended NATO’s was strengthening “military security ties” with Asia-Pacific countries and undermining regional peace and stability.

“The two sides oppose patching together a closed and exclusive group structure in the Asia-Pacific region, creating group politics and camp confrontation. The two sides pointed out that the US adheres to the Cold War mentality and pursues the ‘Indo-Pacific Strategy’, which has a negative impact on peace and stability in the region,” the joint statement said.

China and Russia said they are “committed to building an equal, open, and inclusive Asia-Pacific security system that does not target third countries” in order to maintain regional peace, stability and prosperity.

This is the first time the two countries have publicly spoken of creating an alternative to the Indo-Pacific concept.

India, which has seen its relations with China plummet to their lowest point in six decades because of a dragging military standoff with China on the Line of Actual Control (LAC), has watched with wariness the growing strategic and security relationship between Moscow and Beijing, especially after the start of the Ukraine war.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

I do not agree with the title of this video. India has clearly stated that she represents herself.

'India Faces Tough Choices As The West Vs Russia Confrontation Deepens'

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

$15.6 billion IMF loan for Ukraine. The IMF has never loaned money to a country at war. Until last week. Ukraine wasn't eligible. Then a rule was tweaked. Took 1 year to clear $3 billion for Sri Lanka. But Ukraine has Western allies & white citizens. And the US can clearly overwrite all rulebooks.

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Avid »

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/2 ... in-belarus

Russia to station tactical nukes in Belarus.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

russia already has bomber planes in Belarus which can fire missiles with nukes, what does this change?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by drnayar »

IndraD wrote:russia already has bomber planes in Belarus which can fire missiles with nukes, what does this change?
Regime change in belarus and US/Polish intervention through belarus opposition/rebels
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by drnayar »

Avid wrote:https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/2 ... in-belarus

Russia to station tactical nukes in Belarus.
taking it a bit closer, ukraine is nearing the threshold through mindless western interventions and now depleted uranium weapons
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Just like US deployed nuclear missile in NATO countries.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vijayk »

Cyrano wrote:Just like US deployed nuclear missile in NATO countries.
don't see any news
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

vijayk wrote:
Cyrano wrote:Just like US deployed nuclear missile in NATO countries.
don't see any news
Approximately 100 U.S. nuclear warheads stored across five NATO nations. Six U.S. nuclear weapon facilities in five NATO countries: Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Turkey. https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/n ... d%20Turkey.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

Stolen Valor: The U.S. Volunteers in Ukraine Who Lie, Waste and Bicker and loot ( a long read, posting a snippet)

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/25/worl ... -lies.html
They rushed to Ukraine by the thousands, many of them Americans who promised to bring military experience, money or supplies to the battleground of a righteous war. Hometown newspapers hailed their commitment, and donors backed them with millions of dollars.
Now, after a year of combat, many of these homespun groups of volunteers are fighting with themselves and undermining the war effort. Some have wasted money or stolen valor. Others have cloaked themselves in charity while also trying to profit off the war, records show.
One retired Marine lieutenant colonel from Virginia is the focus of a U.S. federal investigation into the potentially illegal export of military technology. A former Army soldier arrived in Ukraine only to turn traitor and defect to Russia. A Connecticut man who lied about his military service has posted live updates from the battlefield — including his exact location — and boasted about his easy access to American weapons. A former construction worker is hatching a plan to use fake passports to smuggle in fighters from Pakistan and Iran.
And in one of the more curious entanglements, one of the largest volunteer groups is embroiled in a power struggle involving an Ohio man who falsely claimed to have been both a U.S. Marine and a LongHorn Steakhouse assistant manager. The dispute also involves a years-old incident on Australian reality TV.
Such characters have a place in Ukraine’s defense because of the arms-length role the United States has taken: The Biden administration sends weapons and money but not professional troops. That means people who would not be allowed anywhere near the battlefield in a U.S.-led war are active on the Ukrainian front — often with unchecked access to weapons and military equipment.
Many of the volunteers who hurried to Ukraine did so selflessly and acted with heroism. Some have lost their lives. Foreigners have rescued civilians, aided the wounded and fought ferociously alongside Ukrainians. Others raised money for crucial supplies.
But in Europe’s largest land war since 1945, the do-it-yourself approach does not discriminate between trained volunteers and those who lack the skills or discipline to assist effectively.

The New York Times reviewed more than 100 pages of documents from inside volunteer groups and interviewed more than 30 volunteers, fighters, fund-raisers, donors and American and Ukrainian officials. Some spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information.
The interviews and research reveal a series of deceptions, mistakes and squabbles that have hindered the volunteer drive that began after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, when President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine called for help. “Every friend of Ukraine who wants to join Ukraine in defending the country, please come over,” he said. “We will give you weapons.”
Thousands answered the call. Some joined military groups like the International Legion, which Ukraine formed for foreign fighters. Others took roles in support or fund-raising. With Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, under attack, there was little time for vetting arrivals. So people with problematic pasts, including checkered or fabricated military records, became entrenched in the Legion and a constellation of other volunteer groups.
Asked about these problems, the Ukrainian military did not address specific issues but did say that it was on guard because Russian agents regularly tried to infiltrate volunteer groups. “We investigated such cases and handed them over to law enforcement agencies,” said Andriy Cherniak, a representative for Ukrainian military intelligence.
‘A Million Lies’
One of the best-known Americans on the battlefield is James Vasquez. Days after the invasion, Mr. Vasquez, a Connecticut home-improvement contractor, announced that he was leaving for Ukraine. His local newspaper told the tale of a former U.S. Army staff sergeant who left behind his job and family and picked up a rifle and a rucksack on the front line.
https://archive.ph/kUvZj#selection-375.0-375.70
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

only Q is why has NYT published it!?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Arima »

drnayar wrote:
Avid wrote:https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/2 ... in-belarus

Russia to station tactical nukes in Belarus.
taking it a bit closer, ukraine is nearing the threshold through mindless western interventions and now depleted uranium weapons
is depleted uranium weapons considered nuclear weapons? at least as in parlance to dirty nuke bomb?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by drnayar »

Arima wrote:
drnayar wrote:
taking it a bit closer, ukraine is nearing the threshold through mindless western interventions and now depleted uranium weapons
is depleted uranium weapons considered nuclear weapons? at least as in parlance to dirty nuke bomb?
When is DU harmful?
Many factors determine the potential harmful effects of DU, depending on whether the exposure is external (outside the body) or internal (inside the body).

Outside the body
For DU outside the body, the potential effects are limited to those of radiation and not chemical toxicity. The radiation exposure depends on how much DU is present, how close it is and how long it is there. It is relatively straightforward to calculate (or measure) such radiation exposures and to assess their effects. DU emits 3 types of ionising radiation: alpha particles, beta particles and photons (x-rays and gamma rays). Alpha particles (nuclei of helium atoms) are stopped by a sheet of paper, and most will be stopped by the inert outer layer of skin. Beta particles (high speed electrons) can travel about a centimetre in the body. Photons (x-rays and gamma rays) are more penetrating and can pass straight through the body.

The radiation dose-rate to the skin, which comes mainly from the beta particles, can be up to 2.5 millisieverts (mSv) per hour, if a lump of DU were held in the hand. It is easily reduced by wearing gloves, or if the DU is encased in some other material. Furthermore, skin is relatively insensitive to radiation, so that even continuous contact (keeping a piece in a pocket or wearing it as jewellery) is unlikely to produce a radiation burn or other short-term effect. Such effects require doses of a few thousand millisieverts, delivered over a short time, but at 2.5 mSv per hour, the DU would need to be in contact for months to give such doses. There would, however, be expected to be a small increase in the risk of skin cancer.

The theoretical maximum whole body gamma dose-rate from external exposure, for someone surrounded by DU, has been calculated to be 0.025 mSv per hour (0.6 mSv per day).

Inside the body
If DU enters the body, it can potentially cause damage from the inside (internal exposure) either through irradiation or by chemical action. It can enter the body by inhalation (breathing in fine dust), ingestion via the mouth, contamination of an open wound, or, on the battlefield, by the embedding of shrapnel fragments. Because uranium has been used extensively as a nuclear fuel, and many workers involved in processing uranium have been potentially exposed to dusts containing uranium, over many years, there have been many studies carried out on the behaviour of uranium in the body. In particular, there have been numerous studies conducted to determine the behaviour of uranium in the body after deposition in the lungs of a wide range of different uranium compounds, including the various oxides produced by the use of DU munitions.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by drnayar »

i believe Russians can now feel the go ahead for dirty nukes ..and they would be the experts in this field. one does feel sorry for the ukrainians
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by YashG »

IndraD wrote:$15.6 billion IMF loan for Ukraine. The IMF has never loaned money to a country at war. Until last week. Ukraine wasn't eligible. Then a rule was tweaked. Took 1 year to clear $3 billion for Sri Lanka. But Ukraine has Western allies & white citizens. And the US can clearly overwrite all rulebooks.

This is more discriminatory than it appears. This nails the whole white supremacy and west's holier than thou attitude in a single shot. Every nation in global South should feel cheated by this. Its a self goal. If this gets published widely, its one of the most discriminatory and objectively so step. But perhaps no western media or social network will allow this.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by CalvinH »

IndraD wrote:Stolen Valor: The U.S. Volunteers in Ukraine Who Lie, Waste and Bicker and loot ( a long read, posting a snippet)

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/25/worl ... -lies.html

The New York Times reviewed more than 100 pages of documents from inside volunteer groups and interviewed more than 30 volunteers, fighters, fund-raisers, donors and American and Ukrainian officials. Some spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information.

100 pages of documents? 30 volunteers....the research standards of NYT are really going down. But may be this is all what is needed in the era where stories can be made from fictional conversations with the cab drivers.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

The west is exposing the hollow nature of its system one by one, be it Swift, ICJ, maritime insurance, and even the UN. BRICS have surpassed G7 revenues, Africa is slipping away from their grasp. The unraveling will only accelerate...

Ukraine is the west's game changer. In a game it was winning for decades.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vijayk »



What is this Redpilled TV?

Col Macregor seems to providing totally opposite of MSM version ...

What is his motivation?

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Yagnasri »

He was one of the few saying such things from the start. For me, the failure of the MSM of the West to beam the war from UKN is a clear indication that not all is well and rosy as the MSM of the West has been saying for a year. If we go by the West, UKN would have defeated Russians a dozen times. So, what he says about the UKN situation may be true.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by gakakkad »

^ the counter narrative people actually have fair amount of credibility. Scott Ritter was UN weapons inspector and one of the drafters or start treaty . Besides doing compliance inspections in USSR/Russia he also blew the lid of the iraq wmd scam . He is widely believed to have the most knowledge on the iraq wmd program or the lack thereof and had tried to prevent the invasion . Fbi honey trapped in a fake pedophilia case and ruined him .

McGovern spent decades in cia both as analyst and field agent and was very high up. (Top 5 in agency) during Regan and George H bush.

McGregor was considered for nsa post by trump .

What they say is logical and they are not aam YouTubers but people with expertise and domain knowledge.

Having said that they do have an axe to grind against GOTUS . Macgregor is a trump ally. Ritter has obvious reasons for hating GOTUS . And very well documented ones . I don't know about the judge and McGovern .
I do show a healthy degree a skepticism. But things are panning opposite of what msm narrative has been . And have been fairly aligned with what these 3 have said . They have been more optimistic about Russia though than what appears but again what do I know .
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by prahaar »

Overall it seems the situation is worse for Ukraine than portrayed and things seem to be in a hard tussle. Both Ukraine and Russia seem to be adapting tactics and strategy as the war proceeds. The key factor will be national will. Difficult to predict anything, but certainly, the war seems quite far from ending anytime soon. The amount of attrition is extra ordinary. Some decisive outcomes may occur during the April-September, depending on the counter offensives and offensives we keep hearing frequently.

Germany seems to be hurting in a tangible manner. The industrial action against inflation is a clear indicator. This war has become another Syria.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

Only 2 nations have the will and ability to take it to the logical conclusion whatever it may be.

1) Russia.
2) USA.

Ukraine, UK and Poland are just following the US lead.

How far will the US take this war is the real unknown.

If the US had any realistic in decision making position. They would be loosing sleep over PRC and Russia coming together. But the current US establishment is goading them together.

The other thing is the funny nature of the Russian state.

Over the last century or so.

1) collapsed in 1917, with major concessions to Germany.
2) got excluded from the post WW1 European security order.
3) smashed Germany in 45 after a long and brutal struggle. Building a parallel security architecture.
4) In 91, gave up on everything accomplished in WW2. Got excluded from the post cold war security order again.
5) pushed into a proxy war with the USA in 2014, with war going overt in 2022.

Will Russia have the will to see it through?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Avid »

Orthodox clerics say they will not leave Kyiv monastery
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65117269
The Pechersk Lavra is a seat of Ukraine's Orthodox Church (UOC), which split from the Moscow patriarchate after Russia's invasion last year.

But Ukrainian officials suspect some of the top clergy have maintained ties with the church in Moscow, which they deny.

The UOC has been ordered to leave the site by the end of Wednesday.

The Ukrainian government, which owns the vast 11th Century monastery overlooking the Dnipro River, says the decision was taken after a commission discovered multiple violations of the tenancy agreement of the complex, a Unesco World Heritage Site.
This based on mere suspicion! executed by a "democracy"
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Haresh »

Preparing the public for the inevitable ??

Russia STILL holds 40,000 square miles of Ukraine and has 800,000 more troops on the ground, and taking back Crimea requires a D-Day style operation... The savage truth? It'll take MUCH more than these fantastic British tanks to beat Vladimir Putin

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... l#comments
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »



excellent summary of how Europe is bank rolling Russia's war, in last year when war raged, it has purchased mind boggling sum of goods and LNG from Russia
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ashthor »

How long before some Ukranian commander takes out its political leadership in a coup? Is it possible?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

ashthor wrote:How long before some Ukranian commander takes out its political leadership in a coup? Is it possible?

A coup will only happen if Ukrainian leadership wants to continue fighting even after Ukraine has be dumped by the Americans.

As long as US is steadfast in it's support for Ukraine. Bo military leader will launch any coup against the civillian leadership.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Avid »

ashthor wrote:How long before some Ukranian commander takes out its political leadership in a coup? Is it possible?
Cannot verify the authenticity of the video -- but if more of these start showing up, then two things are possible: 1) coup (with military unified); and 2) coup or potential coup with military fractured.

What should worry everyone is the scenario #2. That will be equivalent to Northern Syria / Libya with better armed and trained factions -- all within Europe with porous long borders.

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1 ... lq6Ww&s=09
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

I'm thinking a failed military coup could be seen a decent off ramp by NATO. They can jump in with a peace keeping force and make it a frozen conflict.

And continue their $$$ scamming in the reconstruction of what is left of Ukraine. Very soon the Dems will need money for Biden's reelection and not having a defeat on his hands is essential to get a shot at keeping the chair.
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