Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

CalvinH · Post by **CalvinH** » 12 Sep 2022 09:01

Pratyush wrote:
The west thinks that by moving to electric vehicles they will be able to phase out petroleum products. But automobiles account for under 10% of global petroleum consumption.

In US the Finished motor gasoline accounts for 44% of Petroleum usage. Overall transportation sector uses 67% of the petroleum products. I am sure global averages are same.

Source: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil ... of-oil.php

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 12 Sep 2022 09:41

Thanks, I stand corrected.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 12 Sep 2022 11:48

At this point it looks like Russia has lost- Russia could be break into even more pieces, well I think USA, Britain, China, Turkey, Pakistan will be winners in such a result.

kit · Post by **kit** » 12 Sep 2022 11:58

Aditya_V wrote:At this point it looks like Russia has lost- Russia could be break into even more pieces, well I think USA, Britain, China, Turkey, Pakistan will be winners in such a result.

.., sorry couldn't resist. But wait a couple of weeks or so.

kit · Post by **kit** » 12 Sep 2022 22:17

https://www.economist.com/business/2022 ... ialisation

Holger Schmieding, chief economist of Berenberg, a private bank, predicts that, with energy prices likely to remain high for a while, 2-3% of Germany’s industrial companies that use energy-intensive production processes will relocate abroad. A higher share of industrial firms will reduce their production this winter and next. ArcelorMittal, another steel behemoth, has announced plans to close down two mills in northern Germany and put employees on furlough. Stickstoffwerke Piesteritz, Germany’s largest producer of ammonia and urea, two important chemical inputs, shut down its ammonia factories in Saxony-Anhalt.

kit · Post by **kit** » 12 Sep 2022 22:22

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/0 ... -in-europe

So why cant Norway cap its energy prices and make life easier for rest of their buddies in Europe ?

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 13 Sep 2022 00:55

Haha reminds me of that fictional novel Occupied or Okkupert. Will EU ask Rus to force Norway to reduce prices ? In the novel it is about Norway switching off hydrocarbons and going to renewables putting EU energy at risk.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 13 Sep 2022 01:28

kit wrote:https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/0 ... -in-europe

So why cant Norway cap its energy prices and make life easier for rest of their buddies in Europe ?

The entire world should cap energy price at 50 $ a barrel

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 13 Sep 2022 03:04

Atmavik wrote:
kit wrote:https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/0 ... -in-europe

So why cant Norway cap its energy prices and make life easier for rest of their buddies in Europe ?
The entire world should cap energy price at 50 $ a barrel

Why cap it? Can I get it free?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 13 Sep 2022 07:00

Swedish rightwing on verge of narrow election win but waits on final tally

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 13 Sep 2022 10:22

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 13 Sep 2022 10:47

NRao wrote:Swedish rightwing on verge of narrow election win but waits on final tally

I posted on 27th Aug, that the right wing party is going to present a strong challenge (they are less Anti Russia than the current govt).

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 13 Sep 2022 11:21

Deans wrote:
NRao wrote:Swedish rightwing on verge of narrow election win but waits on final tally
I posted on 27th Aug, that the right wing party is going to present a strong challenge (they are less Anti Russia than the current govt).

While it is true they are less anti-Russia, they have a lot on their plate when it comes to internal affairs. Too much drugs snd gang warfare. So, I doubt if their stance will change to impact EU position.

Furthermore, Austria went through very similar circumstances. Those opposing the right threw the kitchen sink and pushed the right wingers out. I would not be surprised if the same game plan is executed here too.

However, if Italy also elects similar parties, then we could see a different ball game.

But, ......

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 13 Sep 2022 16:18

however sweden was LW bastion recently uncontrolled Islamic immigration and worsening l&o situation in Stockholm was at heart of election. This also was place where recently Qkoraan was burnt.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 14 Sep 2022 08:31

The damning original Rand Corp report that wrote the script for the UKR war

Original Rand report

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 15 Sep 2022 01:10

EU Scraps Price Cap On Russian Natural Gas

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 15 Sep 2022 03:17

This alleged Rand report is strange. How would a weak Germany funnel cash into the US?!

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 15 Sep 2022 20:52

Cyrano wrote:This alleged Rand report is strange. How would a weak Germany funnel cash into the US?!

Page 3, "Expected Consequences":

* German economy will collapse (in progress)
* EU economy will follow (in progress)
* Huge unemployment in Germany: from the report:

Another inevitable consequence of a prolonged economic recession will be a sharp drop in living standards and rising unemployment (up to 200,000 - 400,000 in Germany alone), which will entail the exodus of skilled labour and well-educated young people. There are literally no other destinations for such migration other than the United States today.

* What FDI and brain power Germany/EU had will wind up in the US. The US $ will be king again (along with the Yuan): from the report:

In the medium term (4-5 years), the cumulative benefits of capital flight, re-oriented logistical flows and reduced competition in major industries may amount to USD 7-9 trillion.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 15 Sep 2022 21:08

Hmm... Still not very convincing to me.
Brain drain into US, may be. But if Euro tanks, then what they can invest also takes a hit. Germany and perhaps even EU will prevent capital flight because if that happens, they will need decades to rebuild, not years

Moreover since when does US care about FDI? They are used to printing as much as they want with very low interest rates. Its a consumption driven scam credit economy, not a production driven economy like Germany where capital matters.

And how many trillions can Germans invest? 1? 2? even 3? US govt creates as much in a few months at the stroke of a pen

US needs to keep dollar hegemony, which depends on demand. The more number of prosperous countries towing the line in the financial and energy system it lords over, the safer it's hegemony. Beggaring productive and rich allies which transact in dollars will only weaken the hegemony.

As a policy recommendation that report seems wrong to me. But that doesn't mean someone in the US administration hasn't bought into it - they have demonstrated how stupid they can be with sanctions already.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 15 Sep 2022 21:24

Their argument that Germany is out competing US also seems lame to me. The global economic boom of the past 3 decades, led by China, India, Asian markets have generated so much demand that anyone with a brand could sell. Can't think of one instance where Germans gave the US a run for their money where US was generally strong.

Lastly, EU is a big buyer of US MIC. Why bankrupt your big clients ?!

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 15 Sep 2022 21:24

Swedish verdict is out:

Right-wing parties win Swedish election in historic political overhaul

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/15/right-w ... signs.html

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 15 Sep 2022 22:04

Escalation:

US + EU to sanction ALL Turkish banks for accepting the Russian Mir credit card

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 15 Sep 2022 22:06

@Cyrano,

Try and read that report as a neocon American. Only then will it make sense, not otherwise. One cannot really apply logic to such documents - they are targeted documents.

More when I have some time (I have to manually type from that doc).

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 15 Sep 2022 22:51

Cyrano wrote:Their argument that Germany is out competing US also seems lame to me. The global economic boom of the past 3 decades, led by China, India, Asian markets have generated so much demand that anyone with a brand could sell. Can't think of one instance where Germans gave the US a run for their money where US was generally strong.

Lastly, EU is a big buyer of US MIC. Why bankrupt your big clients ?!

+108. Apart from some precision engineering goods , German stuff is pretty over rated . And Panda owns a whole bunch of small German companies or has a photochored version of those. Highly doubt unkil fears competition from them.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 15 Sep 2022 23:19

NRao wrote:EU Scraps Price Cap On Russian Natural Gas

Don't believe this. This is a tool they have and will use it.

There is no downside for them at all. They are just probably watching how the winter pans out and don't want to jeopardize by acting early.

The action plan is ready, its just a matter on when.

bala · Post by **bala** » 16 Sep 2022 01:03

Cyrano wrote:Their argument that Germany is out competing US also seems lame to me. The global economic boom of the past 3 decades, led by China, India, Asian markets have generated so much demand that anyone with a brand could sell. Can't think of one instance where Germans gave the US a run for their money where US was generally strong.

Another angle to consider is US + Panda. Panda loves german stuff like VW/Mercs/BMW/Porche (i might add overseas Chinese also prefer these brands). The German SME/Medium+ scale are also deeply entrenched in China with perhaps some Panda clones. So a downturn in Germany, would cause Panda to buy them up as much as possible. Xiden is very much alive despite all the hot air around Taiwan.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 16 Sep 2022 01:40

Germany prospered on cheap gas from Russia + cheap Nuclear electricity from France, sold it's products at a premium to China and got cheap security from the US.

Merkel fitted the German economic engine on this 3 legged stool and was firing on all cylinders for a while.
Of course it's hardworking people and immigrants did their bit. Helped pull a bunch of ex Soviet block countries out of misery and integrate into EU.

Only it turns out one of the three legs wasn't free at all.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 16 Sep 2022 02:07

bala wrote:
Cyrano wrote:Their argument that Germany is out competing US also seems lame to me. The global economic boom of the past 3 decades, led by China, India, Asian markets have generated so much demand that anyone with a brand could sell. Can't think of one instance where Germans gave the US a run for their money where US was generally strong.
Another angle to consider is US + Panda. Panda loves german stuff like VW/Mercs/BMW/Porche (i might add overseas Chinese also prefer these brands). The German SME/Medium+ scale are also deeply entrenched in China with perhaps some Panda clones. So a downturn in Germany, would cause Panda to buy them up as much as possible. Xiden is very much alive despite all the hot air around Taiwan.

OT .i ll post in detail in one of the unkil forums. I have a feeling that xiden is quietly trying to undermine the anti-china efforts of deep state.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 16 Sep 2022 07:21

NRao wrote:@Cyrano,

Try and read that report as a neocon American. Only then will it make sense, not otherwise. One cannot really apply logic to such documents - they are targeted documents.

More when I have some time (I have to manually type from that doc).

Cyrano,

Rand, on their web site, states that report is a fake. So I think it is best I not respond to the report specifically, but I hope to pick up threads from the report and tie them to events that have transpired in the recent past.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 16 Sep 2022 10:02

Kati wrote:Swedish verdict is out:

Right-wing parties win Swedish election in historic political overhaul

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/15/right-w ... signs.html

Let's see how this works out.

kit · Post by **kit** » 16 Sep 2022 15:11

Cyrano wrote:This alleged Rand report is strange. How would a weak Germany funnel cash into the US?!

energy supplies and weapons.. thats billions every month

kit · Post by **kit** » 16 Sep 2022 15:14

NRao wrote:Escalation:

US + EU to sanction ALL Turkish banks for accepting the Russian Mir credit card

so this sanction involves no "swift" ? or they lose dollar business ? not quite sure how sanctioning works here ? what prevents them from using Chinese currency and wholesale Russian oil imports ?

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 16 Sep 2022 16:09

Rand has disowned that report. It could even be someone pro Russia trolling them ! Whatever, it had more holes than Kutumba Rao's baniyan.

Wrt energy crisis, EU leaders are repeating the same trope to increasingly agitated Euro députées. Ursula said "send you bills to Putin" she has no other answer.

Govts are plugging "how to save energy" content through all channels thus subtly shifting the responsibility on to the people. So if you need more energy than you can pay for, you better be feeling guilty for not saving enough, or be branded a criminal, or traitor "Putin's ally".

But what will they say to small businesses and the industry? When they start going down, the EU states will be saddled with unemployment costs and decreasing tax revenues.

Tour Eiffel won't be shining like a jewel for much longer

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 16 Sep 2022 16:53

Why not give some hits to this Desi channel which brings forth another facet of the situation:

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 16 Sep 2022 22:09

French minister for European and foreign affairs Catherine Colonna is on an India visit right now.

After a speech, she was asked about Ukraine.

Her answer shows how simplistic and binary the EU discourse is on the matter. Russia is the unprovoked aggressor and is responsible for everything, Ukr is the innocent victim only defending itself. The only solution is for Russia to withdraw. I was hopeful there would some nuance, there is none. EU is ok if the war goes on for a long time, they can't help it, it's all Putin's fault.

I wish someone asked her "France was a co signatory of Minsk accords, why did they fail to resolve the human rights issues in Donbass?" Or why is France and EU not exercising strategic autonomy and deal with the issue of a new European Security Framework outside the expansionist trend of NATO?" The questions were too gentle.

From 21:30 onwards:

kit · Post by **kit** » 17 Sep 2022 15:10

US ditches Europe as predicted., and they of course has got a good grip of the Russian tigers tail , cant let go wont let go ..

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 17 Sep 2022 22:42

How much has can Europe realistically store? ~~I don't think it will be beyond a few hundred metric tons.~~

Most reports are in terms of percentages, not actual quantity in tons or cubic metres.

Edit: reports from 2021 say it is close to 117 Billion Cubic metres or about a fifth of their annual consumption.

Edit 2: Most reports say around 80% of EU gas reserves are full currently, so by November unless EU can supplement the storages with affordable gas, they are really really doomed.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 17 Sep 2022 23:27

there seems to be concerted effort to bring Russia to negotiations table, latest thru Mudi though what mudi said was neutral, it has been spun in west media as 'moral victory and India sees the light'
winter will freeze (& kill Europeans no one knows what will happen in those circumstances) hence attempts to break the ice and Russia is patiently waiting for the winter

sohamn · Post by **sohamn** » 18 Sep 2022 13:21

Modi gave a public rebuke to Putin. I have never heard him talking like this to any leader ever especially in front of media.

One of the reasons could be that Russia stopped selling highly discounted oil to India. I think Putin overplayed his hand very bad.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 18 Sep 2022 13:39

sohamn wrote:Modi gave a public rebuke to Putin. I have never heard him talking like this to any leader ever especially in front of media.

One of the reasons could be that Russia stopped selling highly discounted oil to India. I think Putin overplayed his hand very bad.

IMHO Modi's statement was neutral and west media was waiting to spin it
btw Russia is selling even more discount on oil to India https://qz.com/russia-is-offering-india ... 1849523766