Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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bala
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

USA's Grand Strategy with Russia & China. Ukraine Taiwan.
By Lt Gen Ravi Shankar (retd)
The Lt. Gen. is slightly misreading things. China and Taiwan are not similar to the Russian Ukraine tussle, though the theme is the same type of people etc. With Taiwan, the US is policing the seas around the area. The area of Taiwan is rather small compared to Ukraine. Taiwan is a relatively rich nation and it probably already paid the protection money to the US and they already acquired sophisticated defence equipment from the US. Ukraine is a struggling nation with help required from Euros and US.

One cardinal rule: countries with Nukes and the wherewithal for second strike do not clash one on one since that would be Nuclear War.

On Nato expansion: Russia is fine with Finlad, Sweden etc. The red lines are nukes with short launch times. But that can be addressed with Russian Submarines near the US coast.

One thing that the Lt. Gen got right is that the Russia - Ukraine tussle is going to last for years.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

NRao wrote:Now, where have we heard this before?

Taiwan says it hopes world would sanction China if it invades
that means they have no hope anyone is going to sanction China. :x
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

^^^^^

My experience with the good Lt. Gen. has been he simplifies things too much. While he is great on military related affairs, he is at the other end of the spectrum on most other topics: AI, economy, geopolitics, etc. A lot to pack in 60 minutes on YT - granted.

I agree with him that "China" is part of the "Russian" plan. Where I totally disagree is that it is a "US" plan - which leads to a misguided picture.

On "Taiwan", i doubt that anything will happen, although we can expect a lot of noise. However, IMO, that noise will be solely due to power play in Washington - NYT, WashPost, CNN, BBC, NPR, London Times, Guardian, .......

IMO, the next Prez could easily dismantle the current sanction and AUKUS.

And, in 3/5 years is anyone going to use SWIFT - outside the 30 or so nations within NATO/EU?

The ability to implement the "US" (neocon) plan relies on a very strong USD. In the past attempts to find alternatives to the USD have invited "intervention". Has the decline of the USD started? IMO that will determine the future game plan.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

kit wrote:
NRao wrote:Now, where have we heard this before?

Taiwan says it hopes world would sanction China if it invades
that means they have no hope anyone is going to sanction China. :x
I think it is a US based neocon's script being read out by someone in Taiwan. Much like Mr. Elensky did.

____________________________________

The State Department games a lot of global situations. And, invites a boat load of people for such games. The core, serious people in the US, take such matters very, very seriously.

IMO, Biden is a runaway train, no brakes, no engineer aboard. A lot more to unpack ................
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

NRao wrote:
kit wrote:

IMO, Biden is a runaway train, no brakes, no engineer aboard. A lot more to unpack ................
Rao sir., Biden does NOT matter., he is just a bumbling figurehead for the demo neocon gang , poor guy probably cant even remember what he had for breakfast
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

Russia has no extra oil to sign deals with two Indian buyers
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 022-06-08/
08 June 2022

NEW DELHI: Russia's Rosneft is holding back on signing new crude oil deals with two Indian state refiners, three sources with knowledge of the matter said, as it has committed sales to other customers. Russia has managed to keep exporting its oil despite increasing pressure from Western sanctions to choke Moscow's revenue.

"Rosneft is non-committal in signing a contract with HPCL and BPCL. They are saying they don't have volumes," said one of the sources. So far only IOC, the country's top refiner, has signed a deal with Rosneft, which will see it buy 6 million barrels of Russian oil every month, with an option to buy 3 million barrels more. The other two refiners' requests have since been turned down by the Russian producer, the sources said. Russia is ramping up oil exports from its major eastern port of Kozmino by about a fifth to meet surging demand.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

bala wrote:Russia has no extra oil to sign deals with two Indian buyers
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 022-06-08/
08 June 2022
Please use link when adding news articles bala-ji. I have edited your post.

Your co-operation in this matter is appreciated.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

I read somewhere that the quality of Russian crude is different from the sweet crude India has been buying from ME and many of our refineries cannot process Russian crude the same way and will need some significant modifications, which can't be done overnight.
Which could explain India not going the whole hog on Russian crude.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

Cyrano wrote:I read somewhere that the quality of Russian crude is different from the sweet crude India has been buying from ME and many of our refineries cannot process Russian crude the same way and will need some significant modifications, which can't be done overnight.
Which could explain India not going the whole hog on Russian crude.
Should have posted this for forum Ites before



Now for example ... "RIL operates the world’s largest refinery at a single location in Jamnagar, India. With an overall processing capacity1 of more than 1.2 million barrels of crude oil per stream day, the refinery is also one of the world’s most complex. The Jamnagar refinery has been designed to process heavy, high sulphur and acidic crudes. These crudes are more difficult to process than lighter crudes, but they are cheaper and can provide refineries with a higher margin."

Russia produces several different types of crude oil, but its main export blend is Urals, which is a medium sour crude.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

Now there is nothing much preventing India from taking up more Russian crude., The crude, slightly inferior to Arab Medium grades because of higher sulphur and nitrogen, suits most Indian refineries, which have been upgraded., so, indeed they can use Russian Urals !!

I dare say Russian crude can replace a good chunk of middle east oil

Now you know why the khujli with middle east is ..esp with the "comments"

Money talks ., India has an alternative to middle east oil., if the Russians price theirs differentially

Thats geopolitics for you.

If there is one rising power and who had gained the most out of the Rus/Uke fall out ., it is India. Full stop. Its time has come. What and how it deicides will influence the "world order". Effectively India and China can together end the Bretton woods petrodollar dominance in the world economy. The west would rather not see this happen., so want Indians to be in perpetual conflict inside as well as with China.

Game theory analysis will predict an entirely different outcome if China comes to terms with India., it will have to eventually. And when that happens., the west would lose its relevance, first Europe then America.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

bala wrote:
USA's Grand Strategy with Russia & China. Ukraine Taiwan.
By Lt Gen Ravi Shankar (retd)
. Ukraine is a struggling nation with help required from Euros and US.
Europeans were tricked and led into something they hardly knew what!! much the proverbial pied piper America led them all the way to free fall

Now being politicians they cant admit to being wrong so make the best of the situation., each day ... till someone comes along and say the European emperors are really naked :mrgreen:
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ldev »

Vayutuvan wrote:
ldev wrote:That risk diversification formula will put a cap/lid on how much crude India will import from Russia, even if the crude is heavily discounted.
Can the Public sector companies raise the cap temporarily while the going is good? If not why not? Serious question.
Why would any PSU boss put his neck on the line by saving $25 per barrel if after putting all his eggs in the Russian basket, something happens to disrupt supply? That is unlike Reliance which is opportunistically buying Russian crude and exporting the refined products because of the huge refinery profit margins currently prevailing. In contrast the PSU oil companies in India have seen margins compress and in fact may be currently making losses being squeezed by high crude prices on the one hand, constant taxes and the Government's unwillingness to raise prices.

If you saw that Oil Minister talk about interest in Russian oil assets - he said that IF the PSU come forward with proposals to invest in Russian oil assets, then the Ministry is willing to look at such proposals.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

I am unable to find an interview that Shoigu gave to Investia which supposedly is loaded with info on what the Russians are expecting Ukraine to give up - land wise. IF the news report is true, then ALL of East and South UKR is gone.

However, if anyone has the time and interest, here is a page from Investia that seems to be a news dump. Go fish.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

kit wrote: Rao sir., Biden does NOT matter., he is just a bumbling figurehead for the demo neocon gang , poor guy probably cant even remember what he had for breakfast
kit ji,

It is the other way around.

When people voted for Biden, they voted for a particular/specific FP: Jake Sullivan, Anthony Blinken, and Victoria Nuland. This is the same group that has been together for eons, the first two being lead staff for Biden - for I don't know how long. Nuland was the author of Ukraine's current mess. She is backed by her husband's side **family** (two rather well known and powerful think tanks + ISW. All family affairs). Blinken has extremely close ties to Soros. There is a lot more to this involving Clintons, Brzezinski, Kissinger, and many more ("EU").

As an aside: Which is why when Jaishankar says something people need to understand that DrSJ is actually going against ALL these yahoos.

Biden is a very destructive person. So is Mrs. Clinton. Just saying. Rest for another thread.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

BTW US inflation hit a new 40-year high of 8.6% in May

Imported inflation rages everywhere
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/op ... 514132.ece
10, June 2022
In France, taxes have been cut and cash transfers to the vulnerable raised. But Russia holds the aces

This week, as I made my weekly pilgrimage to the newspaper kiosk in Paris, I was faced with a grim realisation. When I handed the vendor €7.50 in exact change for The Economist magazine, he replied saying “8.50 euros monsieur!” He then passed the issue with the headline, ‘The Fed That Failed: How inflation humbled America’s central bank.’

Inflation has permeated our lives once again. Consumer prices in the US last soared as high as now back in the 1980s, a period characterised by high prices followed by a fall in demand and the oil glut. Inflation has gone over 8 per cent in the US with the Euro area is not far behind at 7.5 per cent. This is the case in most countries around the world, with some like Argentina and Turkey standing out with hyperinflation at 55 per cent and 70 per cent, respectively. Our neighbour Sri Lanka has an inflation rate of over 30 per cent.
Demand uptick factor

The main force driving up inflation in Europe has been the rise in energy prices, up by around 26 per cent from last year. Economists have identified the rapid increase in demand following a lull during the pandemic, along with supply chain bottlenecks in China (and its zero-Covid strategy), as the leading causes for the rise in prices. As food and energy prices increase, so does the burden on the French wallet with more households expecting higher prices in the future and spending less now.

Household spending provides a great impulse for economic growth. Low growth coupled with high inflation can cause what is known as stagflation. Low growth leads to unemployment and fall in spending power, while inflation leads to a fall in the value of money; therefore stagflation is definitely a dangerous prospect.

Inflation has been aggravated by the frictions with Russia, a country that Europe depends upon heavily for 40 per cent of its gas supply. Russia and Ukraine are important trade partners for many economies around the world. Russia is the second largest natural gas producer and the third largest oil producer in the world. Moreover, it also commands a great share of the world’s production of steel and aluminium.

The world also depends on these countries for wheat, corn and sunflower oil. The IMF forecasts that due to war-induced supply shocks because of the war, inflation will rise to 5.5 per cent in advanced European nations. It also forecasts a contraction for the French economy for two continuous quarters this year and a fall in real GDP growth from 7 per cent in 2021 to 1.4 per cent in 2023.
Advantage Russia

Efforts to impose sanctions on Russia also seem to have been counterproductive. Though a majority of Russia’s foreign reserves remain frozen and sanctions on the central bank and the use of SWIFT (an interbank messaging network) have brought down imports, it is expected that Russia will have a record trade surplus, which would help it finance the war. This is mainly due to the fact that these are not trade sanctions; sale of oil and gas is still permitted and the rise in energy prices further augments revenues.

Politicians in Europe are rallying to find the best solutions to what is the worst inflationary period since the creation of the euro. Some of the measures taken include reducing energy tax/VAT, and retail price regulation. France, along with some other European nations like Spain and Portugal, has enacted a wholesale price regulation and proposed regulation in windfall profits tax. This is to go with the many cash transfer schemes to vulnerable groups (Macron was re-elected last month with the promise of increasing pensions and food vouchers to 8 million people).

Central banks mainly control inflation using two tools — quantitative tightening, which implies a fall in market liquidity by reducing the assets purchased; or by increasing rates. It is anticipated that the ECB will aggressively raise rates in July and in September (possibly 50 basis points), a first for the central bank in a decade.
India and imported inflation

India too is not immune to this global phenomenon. Rising prices are a worry in India with the most obvious being petrol and diesel prices across States. Food and related products are also costlier. It is to be noted that supply chain disruptions, the consequently higher global commodity prices and energy costs are the major factors behind India’s high CPI levels. It is not demand driven.

Amul, for instance, raised the price of milk by ₹2 a litre recently citing pressure from energy, logistics and packaging costs. The same goes for tea, coffee and Maggi from Nestlé! The government has announced subsidies for gas cylinders, a reduction in Customs and import duties for certain raw materials like steel, and a reduction in excise duty for petrol and diesel.

In line with the standard response to deal with price rises, the RBI finally hiked the repo rate by 40 basis points in May and again most recently in June by 50 basis points after witnessing headline inflation above the upper tolerance levels for four months continuously. This brings the rate to 4.9 per cent (still lower than pre-pandemic levels). The MPC projects inflation to be 6.7 per cent for the fiscal year. ‘Imported’ inflation is our collective lived reality.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Meanwhile, continuing my earlier post:

To give one an idea of how this cabal of neocons (Blinken, Sullivan, and worst of all Nuland) think, we now have the one-who-was-sane Janet Yellen suggesting that the US should put together a oil-buyer-group and place a cap on the price of Russian oil. How laughable is that?

US, EU discuss caps on Russia oil revenue: Yellen
US treasury secretary Janet Yellen in remarks before the Senate Finance Committee today described "extremely active" talks with her European counterparts that she said aim to limit the oil revenue going to Russia. While tariffs and a "buyers' cartel" were among ideas previously discussed, imposing price caps on Russian oil exports is a proposal gaining ground among policymakers in Washington.
___________________________

To which Putin's spokesman Peskov had a very natural, based-on-simple-economics response: "Why would we sell oil if we are not making profits?"


Think about it: here we have a current Sec of Treasury, an Ex-Fed, supporting an economically illogical thought. That is the power of neocons.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/sta ... 4618397697
Social media interest Russia's invasion of Ukraine is plummeting. This is a very dangerous trend - Putin is absolutely counting on the wider world losing interest in the conflict and accepting his terms for a settlement

Image

The original article from Axios
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

The power of neocons comes from Bretton woods petrodollar dominance in the world economy. The other factor is many things which are taken for granted like SWIFT, payments, technology pillars, etc are controlled by the US. Of course, the number of military bases (~400) that the US has outside its territories backs up their statements.

I see only a possible alternate formation like the BRICS + Saudi + others which can provide things in the above - no petro dollar, no SWIFT, etc. On military: things are dicey since Nukes are involved. The elephant in the room is a better common understanding amongst BRICS nations, especially China, Russia and India, the utility of the alternate and its power.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by YashG »

bala wrote:Imported inflation rages everywhere

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/op ... 514132.ece
10, June 2022
In France, taxes have been cut and cash transfers to the vulnerable raised. But Russia holds the aces

This week, as I made my weekly pilgrimage to the newspaper kiosk in Paris, I was faced with a grim realisation. When I handed the vendor €7.50 in exact change for The Economist magazine, he replied saying “8.50 euros monsieur!” He then passed the issue with the headline, ‘The Fed That Failed: How inflation humbled America’s central bank.’

........ The MPC projects inflation to be 6.7 per cent for the fiscal year. ‘Imported’ inflation is our collective lived reality.
BTW US inflation hit a new 40-year high of 8.6% in May
Exactly the reason why dems will lose mid terms badly, scarring any legislation from biden fr the rest of his term. He will look like a weak president.

On ukraine biden played russian roulette - biting more than he could chew.

This inflation isnt new -its the result of crazy stock markets going beyond basics. But the russia war flamed the fires. Biden should have known but here comes the US deep state, controlled by the defence & security mafia. They pushed biden admin into the ukraine bet. Frankly he should have been warned the multiplier effect of grain and fuel shortage.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by YashG »

Well depends on how you want to see it. If you see most of the interest had already dropped in month 1 by march end and the interest has not dropped by a lot more since then. Most of the tens of billions and heavy weapons have come after that - so now with nearly stabilising interest you would see the current levels of support sustained (IF! online interest is what you want to use as a predictor but I dont think it is so). Online interest is hardly going to decide much from now on. Since the biggest chunk of external help for ukraine is already here and it will last an year. That is 40 Bn USD from US< Frankly with that , you dont need much from elsewhr.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Vayutuvan »

ldev wrote:Why would any PSU boss put his neck on the line by saving $25 per barrel if after putting all his eggs in the Russian basket, something happens to disrupt supply?
But why "all eggs in one basket"? more eggs, but not all. It is not a binary choice, is it?!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

ldev wrote:Why would any PSU boss put his neck on the line by saving $25 per barrel if after putting all his eggs in the Russian basket, something happens to disrupt supply?
The threat of disruption - especially for India - has been there since a decade or so: first Iran and the Venezuela. So, a Russia should not be any different.

The GoI has asked Indian O&G companies to see if they can replace the Western companies that vacated Russia - so that assurance exists.

However, the one place I do see a clear threat is from on-the-table "secondary sanctions" that the US is threatening with. I am not convinced that the US will go ahead with this - simply because IMO this would be seen as a India centric decision (and, yes, Victoria Nuland would love it to be). I am not sure Japan, Australia, etc would participate in it and if they do to what extent. The US would need a buy in from a boat load of nations. And, most of all the US DoD.

But, I think the stage was set with the visit of Nuland, Singh, the 2+2 in DC, Biden calling India "shaky", .....
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Deans »

NRao wrote: kit ji,

It is the other way around.

When people voted for Biden, they voted for a particular/specific FP: Jake Sullivan, Anthony Blinken, and Victoria Nuland. This is the same group that has been together for eons, the first two being lead staff for Biden - for I don't know how long. Nuland was the author of Ukraine's current mess. She is backed by her husband's side **family** (two rather well known and powerful think tanks + ISW. All family affairs). Blinken has extremely close ties to Soros. There is a lot more to this involving Clintons, Brzezinski, Kissinger, and many more ("EU").
Sec Def, Lloyd Austin was director at Raytheon. Which of course has got large contracts to supply Ukraine/ NATO.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chetak »

x posted from the europe ukrainian thread


Wasn't it putin who was stopping ukraine from exporting its grain/wheat...

Wasn't it putin who was stealing ukraine's grain and wheat and selling it in the global black market...

the goras are really getting their butts kicked by ukraine and paying through their noses for the needless fires that they set to trap putin

putin’s war on ukraine has created ripple effects across the globe—including exacerbating an already severe global food crisis whereby the invasion has disrupted the global supply of vital food staples, sunflower oil and fertilizer. Prices have gone up manifold times because more than five million tonnes of wheat, corn, sunflower oil, and fertilizer are stuck in ukraine, russia and belarus without the means to get them to the panicked markets.

It was not the russians preventing the grain from leaving but ukrainians foolishly mining the odessa harbour.

russia has already opened mariupol for business again hopefully ukraine can do that with odessa.



Image
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ldev »

Vayutuvan wrote:
ldev wrote:Why would any PSU boss put his neck on the line by saving $25 per barrel if after putting all his eggs in the Russian basket, something happens to disrupt supply?
But why "all eggs in one basket"? more eggs, but not all. It is not a binary choice, is it?!
Look, all that I am looking at is past history, with price discounts being offered by countries like Iran under sanctions. Even at that point in time, Indian PSUs did not buy larger quantities just because of the discount. The cap for maximum imports from a single country has been ~20% in the past. Obviously PSUs have done some research in terms of the risk/return matrix to ensure continued supplies of oil into India in the event that a single supplier has a problem via which they have arrived at this ~20% figure.

For a longer term impact, this past week the EU has resolved that by the end of this year:

The EU will stop all ship borne imports of Russian oil.

As of Feb 2023 the EU will stop imports of all Russian refined products

And most important, as of the end of this year the EU will stop providing insurance and re-insurance to all Russian exports of oil and oil products. The UK is also expected to ban insurance and re-insurance for Russian crude. This insurance ban will be what hit's Russia's oil exports the hardest because 90% of global marine insurance and re-insurance is provided for by the EU and UK insurance/re-insurance markets.The reason is that the number of tankers available globally with the capacity to navigate into Russian ports to pick up oil and yet operate outside the purview of mainline insurance companies is limited. They are old tankers which are operating in the sanction busting Iran and Venezuela oil export trade. Their numbers are limited because once these tankers are put into this gray trade, they cannot again get insurance from mainline insurer nor can the owner/operator. So the limited number of such tankers available globally will be a huge bottleneck for Russian exports effective January/February 2023. Besides there is simply a huge shortage of tankers globally, all kinds of tankers are in short supply and freight rates have shot up a lot. If tanker owners can make big money by operating non sanctioned cargo, why should they risk carrying Russian crude? I am sure that Indian PSUs are looking at all these factors when making decisions about how much additional crude to pick up from Russia now without burning bridges with existing suppliers given the very tight crude demand/supply prevailing.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Good times over for EU citizens – think tank
The cost-of-living crisis is expected to worsen across the European Union, marked by increased food, fuel and electricity prices, according to Maria Demertzis, the deputy director of Brussels-based think tank Bruegel.

She told Euronews on Thursday that the abnormal inflation is a result of skyrocketing energy prices, which “is affecting Europe a lot more than it has affected the US because we depend on Russia a lot more than others do.”

................
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Ldev ji
From what I came across, UK based shipping insurers like Lloyds have already stopped insuring Russia - non EU oil shipping. They also expect to stop insuring to EU shipments by end of the year if EU succeeds in cutting itself off Russian imports.

But this looks like another shot in own foot by the west who were enjoying a quiet and cool monopoly in shipping insurance and shipping itself, and a lot of ship building.

The most artificial barriers will fall first. Chinese or Indian insurers can and will step in. Why do we need Lloyds etc when no western port calls are needed ? There will be a temporary glut for oil tankers, but hey Russia, China, India all make steel and know a thing or two about making ships.

Come autumn it's the EU countries that will outbid each other to push oil, shipping and insurance costs skyhigh and their geriatric population will pay the price out of retirement pensions. If the idiotic Brussels gang tries to negotiate umbrella deals which they will try to do as part of van der Lying's usurpation strategy it will be an even bigger disaster.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

Cyranoji, it takes a year plus to make Panamax style VLCCs. Add to that there are only a few places that manufacture them and apart from China others are S Korea and Europe. No shipper will put in an order for a vessel that will be limited to what routes it will ply.

Bottom line: yes Chinese and Indian insurers will step in for limited cases, but for majority of the case movement will be limited by availability of tankers
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

Tanaji wrote:Cyranoji, it takes a year plus to make Panamax style VLCCs. Add to that there are only a few places that manufacture them and apart from China others are S Korea and Europe. No shipper will put in an order for a vessel that will be limited to what routes it will ply.

Bottom line: yes Chinese and Indian insurers will step in for limited cases, but for majority of the case movement will be limited by availability of tankers
Cochin shipyard has delivered two of India's largest double-hull Aframax tankers each of 95,000 DWT.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Of course, Oil tanker vessels can't be produced like cars, it will take some time. But the current crisis is creating lot of incentives that will spur other countries to enhance their own capabilities and develop reliable alternatives with a sense of urgency. Established market positions will see shifts and new relationships and supply chains are being explored and reinforced. A lot of it at the expense of European businesses and influence.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

Cyrano wrote:Of course, Oil tanker vessels can't be produced like cars, it will take some time. But the current crisis is creating lot of incentives that will spur other countries to enhance their own capabilities and develop reliable alternatives with a sense of urgency. Established market positions will see shifts and new relationships and supply chains are being explored and reinforced. A lot of it at the expense of European businesses and influence.

"SCI is the largest Tanker owner in India, with a well-diversified fleet of crude oil tankers consisting of all sizes: MR, LR-I, LR-II, Aframax, Suezmax and VLCC Tankers. SCI's Tanker tonnage paralleled the growth of Indian oil industry since the mid-1970s. Till late 1990s the tonnage predominantly catered to Indian crude oil and product transportation. This was done keeping in view the specific constraints of terminals/ports in India and infrastructural limitations like draft, availability of tankages, length/capacity of jetties, etc."
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Yes, another good thing for India is a large number of merchant marine sailors, engineers, navigators and captains who sail all over the world under several flags.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ldev »

Cyrano wrote:Ldev ji
The most artificial barriers will fall first. Chinese or Indian insurers can and will step in. Why do we need Lloyds etc when no western port calls are needed.
The first thing any insurance company will look at before it decides to cover it's re-insurance risk is the credit rating of the re-insurer. I have given a link below which gives the credit ratings of the largest re-insurance companies, Munich Re, Swiss Re, Hanover Re, Berkshire Hathway, Lloyds etc. There is single Chinese re-insurer in this list with an A credit rating and the sole Indian company is GIC re which is hobbled for it's credit rating because it is limited by India's sovereign credit rating of BBB- by S&P. GIC re is OK in India because of the GOI mandate that it has the right of first refusal on all reinsurance business in India. GIC Re trying to re-insure anything outside India will be an uphill battle, ditto for the Chinese reinsurance company. It will take decades to build up that kind of capability. Let India's credit rating reach at least "A" before trying to take on the behemoths in the global re-insurance game. China is already there and has barely made a dent in that business so far, take a look China Re business.

https://www.atlas-mag.net/en/article/gl ... st-ratings
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

That's really looks like a cartel deserving to be broken down
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Cyrano wrote:Ldev ji
From what I came across, UK based shipping insurers like Lloyds have already stopped insuring Russia - non EU oil shipping. They also expect to stop insuring to EU shipments by end of the year if EU succeeds in cutting itself off Russian imports.

.........
The main problem is that the Western news outlets are NOT proving complete news coverage on any news item. Insurance of tankers, etc is no exception.

Russia has offered to insure ships. In fact HAD also offered naval escorts - way early in the conflict - no idea if it is still valid, but do not think anyone accepted the offer to escort.

On tankers, the last I heard is that Greek/Cypriot owners put their foot down and refused to use tankers as a tool for sanctions. But, again that was in March/April. As far as I know, or can see, there has been no shortage of tankers. Now, it is possible Indians are facing a shortage of tankers, because - per my understanding - some ports in Russia need tankers to be able to break ice (or be escorted by ice breakers)

THE problem for PSU (as was the case for many Chinese companies) is TARGETED secondary sanctions from the US. IF the US sanctions ONE single PSU or a bunch of banks dealing with one PSU, or some odd ball company providing tankers to AN Indian PSU. Yellen has been against this - but I expect the neocons to prevail (Biden has a huge weakness for them). And, neocons will use Indian companies (as opposed to say Chinese) to make an example to the world of what happens if one breaks sanctions.

Having said that there is a move - among the neocons - to apply secondary sanctions on anyone trading in Rubles. **This is a topic that needs a different thread**, for the simple reason Iraq and Libya faced invasions because their leaders dared to seek an alternative to petrodollars (bala: nothing to do with neocons. Will address tat when I drop my laziness). Serious stuff - something even the EUians will subscribe to. Oil/Gas/Wheat is one thing, but destabilizing the US Dollar is another. On the flip side China and India has an alternative AND now the African nations are coming to the smae conclusion: Rubles (because their absolute need is "food"). Diff thread
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

Interesting, so its just a matter of finding companies with the least exposure to western markets/financial system or use those already under sanctions., i dont think they can sanction twice :mrgreen:

So a parallel "sanctioned" international economy can grow outside the control of western cartel. Would the west be stupid? but again such a scenario can undermine their privileged status
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ldev »

NRao wrote: Russia has offered to insure ships. In fact HAD also offered naval escorts - way early in the conflict - no idea if it is still valid, but do not think anyone accepted the offer to escort.
If somebody accepts the Russian insurance offer and the ship sinks, how is the Russian insurer going to pay the beneficiary? In dollars and Euros? Not going to happen because other than for oil and gas, all other dollar and euro payments to and from Russia are sanctioned. So unless the beneficiary is happy to have his claim paid in rubles it's a non starter.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

ldev wrote:
NRao wrote: Russia has offered to insure ships. In fact HAD also offered naval escorts - way early in the conflict - no idea if it is still valid, but do not think anyone accepted the offer to escort.
If somebody accepts the Russian insurance offer and the ship sinks, how is the Russian insurer going to pay the beneficiary? In dollars and Euros? Not going to happen because other than for oil and gas, all other dollar and euro payments to and from Russia are sanctioned. So unless the beneficiary is happy to have his claim paid in rubles it's a non starter.
I think it is very important to turn our logic on its head.

Start with - "there is a full fledged war going on". Visit pretty much all aspects of what it means to be in a full fledged war. Then we can - at the very tail end - figure out Euro, Rubles, etc.

This is about "A new world order". Not what is the loss if my tanker full of oil sinks.

However, to answer your question, Russia HAD proposed Russia carries the risk (100%) until the tanker reaches the destination port. (The reason is built-in: Russia was/is in competition for world ranking. Hardly cares about small, irrelevant (WRT "World Order") details.) Nothing to do with your arguments - which are perfectly fine.
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