Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 29 Aug 2022 19:37

To stay in the news lest European public forgets Ukra-een

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 29 Aug 2022 20:30

The irony is that after EU suspends the tourists they will proclaim that Russian tourists do not want to come to the EU. It's really shooting their own foot. the EU has turned out to be a bunch of little warmongers that have no clubs.

Germany is the prime example. 2 trillion dollars of exports are at stake over the next few years because of restrictions on cheap Russian energy.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 29 Aug 2022 20:35

Cyrano wrote:To stay in the news lest European public forgets Ukra-een

be assured Europas will remember ukr war every now n then though they may not confess it when electricity is cut for 8 hrs in winter and gas is supplied only hrs in a day

bala · Post by **bala** » 30 Aug 2022 01:43

EU has no alternative to Russian energy – ex Saudi Aramco VP

https://www.rt.com/business/561749-eu-n ... an-energy/
29 Aug, 2022

There’s not enough capacity in the world to replace Russia’s gas supply to the European Union, while Moscow has plenty of markets to sell its energy to, the former executive vice president at Saudi Aramco, Sadad Al-Husseini, told. “In any case, there isn’t enough LNG capacity in the world to make up for the Russian exports to Europe,” the former executive said, adding that, “It will take years for the EU to find resources to replace Russian supply.” Despite Western sanctions, there are “plenty of alternative markets” for Russian energy, including China, Japan, or India. Europe does not have alternative energy sources, he said, “while the US is maxed out already, North Africa has got problems,” and OPEC is also running out of spare capacity. “So, it’s a global problem,” he said.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 30 Aug 2022 02:33

IndraD wrote:
Cyrano wrote:To stay in the news lest European public forgets Ukra-een
be assured Europas will remember ukr war every now n then though they may not confess it when electricity is cut for 8 hrs in winter and gas is supplied only hrs in a day

Absolutely! I wrote that from a Ukr perspective, staying in the news by making such inane demands to get as much of the money flow in as possible before the taps are shut off - which is just weeks away now. All this talk of counter offensive, demanding Russia surrender, rebuilding Donbass yadda yadda is a tragic and sick comedy show that is Kiev regime's only and core competency.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 30 Aug 2022 08:46

That there is a decline we all know. How much and is it terminal ............

Some stats

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 30 Aug 2022 09:13

Ukraine War Is Depleting U.S. Ammunition Stockpiles, Sparking Pentagon Concern

The levels aren’t yet critical because the U.S. isn’t engaged in any major military conflict, the official added. “It is not at the level we would like to go into combat,” the defense official said.

kit · Post by **kit** » 30 Aug 2022 13:36

bala wrote:EU has no alternative to Russian energy – ex Saudi Aramco VP

https://www.rt.com/business/561749-eu-n ... an-energy/
29 Aug, 2022

As long as there are people to profit off this war , there would be enough "reasons" to continue , American arms manufacturers hardly care about inflation and de industrialisation of Europe.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 31 Aug 2022 08:21

https://twitter.com/DolanGeraldine/stat ... 3300889603

I got this electricity bill today, how in the name of God is this possible, we're a small coffee shop in westmeath

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 31 Aug 2022 08:36

dnivas wrote:The irony is that after EU suspends the tourists they will proclaim that Russian tourists do not want to come to the EU. It's really shooting their own foot. the EU has turned out to be a bunch of little warmongers that have no clubs.

The joke among Russians is that Europe does not want them to visit, so they can't see how bad things are in Europe.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 01 Sep 2022 01:36

x-posting from TSP thread:

Viral Video Shows Ukraine using Pakistani Made Weapons to Attack Russia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CD1HYxBcMuc

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 01 Sep 2022 03:27

For what it's worth:

Ukrainian counteroffensive wrecking "thinly held" Russian defenses
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... ad4da62115

Ukraine's counter-offensive in occupied Kherson is wrecking Russia's "thinly held" defenses in the region that was seized by Moscow in the early stages of the war, the U.K. Ministry of Defense recently said.

The British defense ministry said in an intelligence update Wednesday that Ukrainian armored forces have continued to assault Russian troops on several axes across the south of the country since Monday.

"Ukrainian formations have pushed the front line back some distance in places, exploiting relatively thinly held Russian defences," the ministry said.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 01 Sep 2022 03:35

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 01 Sep 2022 14:44

INDIA IS NOT A VASSAL STATE
good article in Austria newspaper
Original Article
https://www.wienerzeitung.at/meinung/ga ... stens.html

Translate to English
https://translated.turbopages.org/proxy ... stens.html

The average Indians are the same questions as the experts: Would tolerate the USA, a Chinese air base in Mexico? If you wanted to have the Ukraine in Nato, why this long delay? Use the Ukraine may be used as a pawn to Russia bleed? Why follow countries in Europe, the USA, meekly? These are the typical questions, the spaces in India in seminar and in Social media.

In addition, if the US ever thought, you India, could dictate terms or to be talked out of his relations to Russia to continue our response is that we are not a vassal state. The USA can't expect that India considers its enemies as his enemies. We have our own strategic interests in the same way as you. For India, the military-to-military relations with Russia are of crucial importance, since the relationship is many decades old. If countries are able to buy in Europe for Russian Gas, we will use this opportunity to buy Oil from Russia at cheaper rates.

In India, you don't understand why the US is doing enough to stop the Ukraine war, which can't be in your best interest, because it distracts your attention from your biggest enemy of China, an enemy of the United States and India have in common. Instead, the government in Washington continues to supply weapons to the Ukrainian army, regardless of civilian casualties. The war in Ukraine has developed to Russia from an expected Sprint to an Ultramarathon. India is against the war. And India is also against devious diplomacy.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 01 Sep 2022 15:07

The west will have to get used to getting off the moral high horse. RoW doesn't really care what they think.

kit · Post by **kit** » 01 Sep 2022 21:25

IndraD wrote:[youtube]hlpeZtITgxE

and to say the least., there is no alternative to Russian gas for Europe in short or medium term., a Saudi ex official has said it is just impossible to cover European requirements by US , forget W Asia., only options being to burn as much coal as possible in short term and nuclear/wind/thermal sources over the longer term. Climate be damned!! This uke war exploited by a few greedy people is going to have much far-reaching consequences than is apparent. , and in a lot of ways threatening the very existence of human life on this planet.

Srutayus · Post by **Srutayus** » 01 Sep 2022 22:39

The west will have to get used to getting off the moral high horse. RoW doesn't really care what they think.

Especially when it was the West that colonized and brutally exploited the RoW, and exterminated entire populations, giving them the wealth and position from which they preach.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 02 Sep 2022 12:19

India is new major player in Russian oil market once dominated by China

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... aign=cppst

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 02 Sep 2022 22:02

The G7 have announced a Russian oil price cap. I dont understand how this cap will work given that both Russia and India are not participating. Africa won’t be participating either

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-62763523

So how does this work?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 03 Sep 2022 00:05

https://twitter.com/financialjuice/stat ... hcRKx8rE5w GAZPROM HAS FULLY STOPPED GAS SUPPLY TO THE NORD STREAM.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 03 Sep 2022 00:17

People in Naples burn their energy bills and besiege the town hall: "We don't pay the bills! Now it will be chaos!" In Naples they don't joke.
https://twitter.com/RadioGenova/status/ ... hcRKx8rE5w

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 03 Sep 2022 10:08

Tanaji wrote:The G7 have announced a Russian oil price cap. I dont understand how this cap will work given that both Russia and India are not participating. Africa won’t be participating either

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-62763523

So how does this work?

What happens if India sells refined product blended with Saudi oil?

kit · Post by **kit** » 03 Sep 2022 10:41

Pratyush wrote:
Tanaji wrote:The G7 have announced a Russian oil price cap. I dont understand how this cap will work given that both Russia and India are not participating. Africa won’t be participating either

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-62763523

So how does this work?
What happens if India sells refined product blended with Saudi oil?

also Russian oil cap means other OPEC producers can charge what they want!! ., is this not shooting themselves on the foot and taking an axe to it ?!!.. what kind of brilliance or logic is this?

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 05 Sep 2022 00:49

Eurasian Alliance Plans A Moscow World Standard To Destroy LBMA's Monopoly In Precious Metals Pricing

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/euras ... ous-metals

Towards the end of July, news emerged in the Russian media that Moscow and a number of its Eurasian allies are now reviewing a proposal to create an entirely new trading and pricing infrastructure for the international precious metals in order to both destroy London and New York’s monopoly over global precious metals pricing, and to stabilize the Russian gold market.

This infrastructure would take the form of:

a Moscow World Standard (MWS) for precious metals trading, akin to the London Good Delivery List of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA)
a new international precious metals exchange (trading venue) headquartered in Moscow based on the MWS, and known as the Moscow International Precious Metals Exchange
a Price Fixing Committee, with price discovery and new precious metals price fixings based on the MWS, and reference prices derived in the national currencies of participant countries or in new international settlement units

The reported sources discussing this new precious metals ‘proposal’ information primarily come from 3 Russian news sites, namely Prime (part of media group RIA Novosti), RBC business daily (part of RBC media group), and URA news (a Yekaterinburg based news site). All of the sources have been translated from Russian into English.

Prime (RIA Novosti) and RBC say that the Russian Ministry of Finance letter proposes the creation of “a new international standard for the precious metals market – Moscow World Standard (MMC) – Moscow World Standard (MWS). MMC is the Russian version = Московский мировой стандарт

Given that as part of Western sanctions against Russia, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) ejected all of Russia’s Good Delivery gold and silver refineries from the LBMA Good Delivery List on 7 March 2022 (the 6 refineries namely Krastsvetmet, Novosibirsk, Uralelectromed, Prioksky, Shyolkovsky, and Moscow Special Alloys Processing Plant), then this new proposed Moscow World Standard (MWS) looks like a replacement for and new competition to the LBMA Good Delivery List.

Note that the CME (COMEX) also removed all of the same 6 Russian refiners from the COMEX gold and silver approved brands lists on 7 March 2022.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 05 Sep 2022 01:38

Price of sanctions UK vs Russia [article from SUn, got post info from Intelslava]

https://www.the-sun.com/news/6142322/ru ... ions-food/

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 05 Sep 2022 01:48

Just to add some personal info. My extended family has a couple of restaurants in little Britain and was chatting with them over the weekend and can confirm that fixed overhead has rise by 40-50% in the past few months. The family says it is worse than what they went through during covid.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 07 Sep 2022 03:11

By the numbers, Ukraine wasn't doing half bad prior to this war.
Invest in the Future of Ukraine

However, now these comments capture the state of affairs.

Oh, that little war thingy, don’t pay any attention to that

After a massive forest fire that destroys everything it all comes back in 20-50 years.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 Sep 2022 15:50

European cost-of-living crisis leads to protests in Germany and Italy (video) https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/bu ... -and-italy

Pressure is piling on European governments as energy prices continue to soar. After Russia said it wouldn't deliver gas on its Nord Stream 1 pipeline until Western sanctions are lifted, Portugal announced a new support programme for households and Austria's chancellor presented a price cap on electricity. Pressure is also coming from the streets, with protests against rising prices in Germany and Italy

midoff · Post by **midoff** » 07 Sep 2022 16:14

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas ... rope.html
The level of hypocracy stinks.

One of the things we do not see from DC or the EU is any overt criticism of the PRC purchases of crude and reselling of gas and refined products. Western companies eg Syngenta, Tesla in the PRC benefit hansomely from ths arrangement, and from the imports of the periodic table into china.

India should link progress on the NSG to discussions on oil and gas caps since the west have now outsourced their non proliferation efforts to china as one cannot separate energy and hydrogen from gas/oil that can be obtained from U/Th. Perhaps time to think of a 21st century NSG

kit · Post by **kit** » 07 Sep 2022 16:37

dnivas wrote:Price of sanctions UK vs Russia [article from SUn, got post info from Intelslava]

https://www.the-sun.com/news/6142322/ru ... ions-food/

Can anyone make any sense out of this rant ?

"Tom Tugendhat, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs select committee, said it showed why the West must stay united and face down Putin.

He told The Sun on Sunday: “Putin has been waging physical war against Ukraine and economic war against the rest of us.

“He is using the money British households are paying in extra fuel costs to subsidise prices in Russia, and holding us all hostage to his dictatorship.

“We need to be clear that we won’t bow to tyranny and work together to make sure we protect British families from this brutal dictator.”

Do you feel the pain !!!

I had to read it twice to make sure it was not some random journalist

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 07 Sep 2022 17:52

The amazing thing is that all Russia wanted was a commitment from the west that Ukraine will never be a part of NATO. Ukraine was also prepared to offer that commitment as late as April 22. But the anglo-sphere would have none of it.

And here we are.

AVBharat · Post by **AVBharat** » 07 Sep 2022 22:56

the west screwed the pooch

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 09 Sep 2022 21:58

Will join Russia oil cap coalition when alternative supply is ensured: Govt

India has said it will consider backing the price cap on Russian crude oil proposed by the US only when it will be assured of supplies from Venezuela and Iran

I do not think India will stand Russia floating off towards China - that IMO is unacceptable. So, I am wondering if BRICS itself will fall apart IF both Russia and China decide to act without consensus from India.

kit · Post by **kit** » 09 Sep 2022 23:07

NRao wrote:Will join Russia oil cap coalition when alternative supply is ensured: Govt

India has said it will consider backing the price cap on Russian crude oil proposed by the US only when it will be assured of supplies from Venezuela and Iran
I do not think India will stand Russia floating off towards China - that IMO is unacceptable. So, I am wondering if BRICS itself will fall apart IF both Russia and China decide to act without consensus from India.

Asking the west to choose between Russia / Iran / Venezuela is Hobson's choice

just when the west tightens their screws on Iran

the whole of the west's pyramid scheme enabling their living standards rests on their ability to influence oil trade and denominate it in favourable currencies.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 09 Sep 2022 23:34

Pratyush wrote:The amazing thing is that all Russia wanted was a commitment from the west that Ukraine will never be a part of NATO. Ukraine was also prepared to offer that commitment as late as April 22. But the anglo-sphere would have none of it.

And here we are.

Europeans were worried that US would pivot to asia and stop investing in NATO. They found a willing ally in zelenskiwal

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 10 Sep 2022 07:59

If PRC developed a brain. Then by reaching an accomodation with India will enable them to limit the US to East of Hawaii.

kit · Post by **kit** » 10 Sep 2022 15:52

Pratyush wrote:If PRC developed a brain. Then by reaching an accommodation with India will enable them to limit the US to East of Hawaii.

true to its nature., PRC's brain is reptilian conditioned to survival., they are born opportunists. Never to be trusted.

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 12 Sep 2022 01:02

If EU does manage to find an alternative to Russian energy, where does that leave Russia in the long run. With China slowing to a new normal and India hardly a consumer of that level, things might start looking a little dodgy for Russia.

I always wondered and hoped for the demise of middle east influence with the decline in reliance on traditional energy but never considered the impact on Russia

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 12 Sep 2022 07:33

India is going to be a buyer and the quantity will increase, if it is still available at a discount for India.

Because our economy requires secure energy supply in order to grow.

The west thinks that by moving to electric vehicles they will be able to phase out petroleum products. But automobiles account for under 10% of global petroleum consumption.

The other fly in the ointment for the west is the loose money policy creating massive inflation and the corresponding recession. Unless they are able to overcome this problem in a timely manner. The days of western economic dominance are going to end.

The other oil suppliers will make a killing in the meanwhile supplying both raw oil and refined petroleum products to the west. Including India and PRC. We will be selling refined petroleum products blended with Russian oil. Making money hand over fist.

The obvious solution to this from the western POV is nuclear energy. But this will require them to nuter the greens. I don't know, if this can even be done with the current levels of societal indoctrination.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 12 Sep 2022 08:21

To neuter the greens the West will have to become vegetarian....
Subsidise electric cars and tax fossil fuel
Tax the rich and give to the poor
Accept more wokeness
Stop mining
Stop deforestation
Invest in gobar gas
etc etc

tall order...