Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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IndraD
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

farticles like these reflect inflated egoes of British more than actual situation on ground, a defence editor quoting Ukrainian sources and own imagination :lol: ..!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

This "heavy weapons will turnaround the war" is pure UK fed BS that elensly amplifies and the whole of western MSM repeats unquestioningly. For instance, out of the 43B$ US congress approved, a significant portion ie several billion $ was for training. Obviously to impart this training right level of soldiers need to be recruited/selected, trained, specifically platform trained and regular exercises to keep competency levels from dropping. We arent even talking about tactics evolved based on terrain of deployment (flat vs hilly, mobility etc) and adversary capabilities and possible response. The entire supply logistics, maintenance and repair must be mastered in all conditions. All this, over years will result in integration of such system & competencies into combined use with other weapon systems, optimal force (re)structure and combat strategies, culminating in offensive/defensive doctrine.

None of all that is possible in current circumstances for Ukra-een forces. Most Ukr soldiers cant speak English, cant understand user guides and training manuals in foreign languages. What they absorb in training is anybody's guess.

What they will and are doing is to get their regular + ragtag conscript troops to fire off a few salvos of M777s or himars etc for shooting - PROPAGANDA videos - not the enemy, and getting detected by weapons locating radars or UAVs and getting destroyed when RU showers counter battery fire on them within few minutes, even before they can shoot and scoot. As per news reports, only 34 of 108 M777 are in operational condition today.

Then why is this BS being peddled ? US & UK are firstly the least impacted by the war & sanctions blowback and farthest from the zone of conflict. Secondly, they expect to have not only a weakened Russia but also a weakened EU to get back some of the lost goal dominance. EU has swallowed the woke spiked drink and is clueless about whats going on, and will have no recollection of how we got here once this is over and they wake up.

US, UK, EU govts are now the newest monkeys holding the banana (Ukra-een) in the jar (Russia) and cant let go to take their hand out.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Dilbu »

AUKUS seems to be the fallback line for US and team when global dominance declines. They are already operating from this mindset and Ukraine conflict is a direct result of this.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by dnivas »

The HIMARS propagandu is the same as
1. NLAW will decimate russian armor and defeat Russia
2. Javelins will decimate russian armor and defeat Russia
3. Used MIG 29's and SU25's will decimate russian armor and defeat Russia
4. New NATO spec trained soldiers will decimate russian armor and defeat Russia
4. switchblade drones will decimate russian armor and defeat Russia
5. XXX new weapon will decimate russian armor and defeat Russia

I meaan it is just pointless reading western and esp UK rags.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

https://twitter.com/GonzaloLira1968/sta ... 9332416512
The Suicidal Chihuahua strikes again!

The fact that a pipsqueak zero of a nation like Lithuania can push the entire European Alliance into a catastrophic war with Russia shows how the old security framework no longer works.

It also shows that the European leaders are weaklings.
Lithuania to veto the European Commission's decision to allow transit of Russian goods through EU - Delfi

"Lithuania has expressed an uncompromising position on the need to maintain the previously agreed position & not succumb to Russian pressure." - Auštrevičius

https://www.delfi.lt/ru/news/politics/a ... d=90580601
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

NATO (neocons) is itching to enter the conflict.

This from a Washington Post member:

https://twitter.com/LizSly/status/1541494773671874560
NATO is planning a massive, 7-fold increase in the number of troops on high alert in Europe, to 300,000. Plans that would have allowed Russia to easily capture the Baltic states will be shelved & new NATO forces will be based there

Financial Times: Nato to increase forces on high alert to 300,000
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

The Return of Industrial Warfare

Some serious stuff.

Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) (not some ordinary think-tank), June 17, 2022
Can the West still provide the arsenal of democracy?

The war in Ukraine has proven that the age of industrial warfare is still here. The massive consumption of equipment, vehicles and ammunition requires a large-scale industrial base for resupply – quantity still has a quality of its own. The mass scale combat has pitted 250,000 Ukrainian soldiers, together with 450,000 recently mobilised citizen soldiers against about 200,000 Russian and separatist troops. The effort to arm, feed and supply these armies is a monumental task. Ammunition resupply is particularly onerous. For Ukraine, compounding this task are Russian deep fires capabilities, which target Ukrainian military industry and transportation networks throughout the depth of the country. The Russian army has also suffered from Ukrainian cross-border attacks and acts of sabotage, but at a smaller scale. The rate of ammunition and equipment consumption in Ukraine can only be sustained by a large-scale industrial base.

This reality should be a concrete warning to Western countries, who have scaled down military industrial capacity and sacrificed scale and effectiveness for efficiency. This strategy relies on flawed assumptions about the future of war, and has been influenced by both the bureaucratic culture in Western governments and the legacy of low-intensity conflicts. Currently, the West may not have the industrial capacity to fight a large-scale war. If the US government is planning to once again become the arsenal of democracy, then the existing capabilities of the US military-industrial base and the core assumptions that have driven its development need to be re-examined.

Estimating Ammo Consumption

There is no exact ammunition consumption data available for the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Neither government publishes data, but an estimate of Russian ammunition consumption can be calculated using the official fire missions data provided by the Russian Ministry of Defense during its daily briefing.

Number of Russian Daily Fire Missions, 19–31 May

Code: Select all

Date	Fire Missions
31		710
30		710
29		717
28		542
27		499
26		526
25		490
24		684
23		688
22		700
21		735
20		251
19		356

Code: Select all

Average: 585.2308

Although these numbers mix tactical rockets with conventional, hard-shell artillery, it is not unreasonable to assume that a third of these missions were fired by rocket troops because they form a third of a motorised rifle brigade’s artillery force, with two other battalions being tube artillery. This suggests 390 daily missions fired by tube artillery. Each tube artillery strike is conducted by a battery of six guns total. However, combat and maintenance breakdowns are likely to reduce this number to four. With four guns per battery and four rounds per gun, the tube artillery fires about 6,240 rounds per day. We can estimate an additional 15% wastage for rounds that were set on the ground but abandoned when the battery moved in a hurry, rounds destroyed by Ukrainian strikes on ammunition dumps, or rounds fired but not reported to higher command levels. This number comes up to 7,176 artillery rounds a day. It should be noted that the Russian Ministry of Defense only reports fire missions by forces of the Russian Federation. These do not include formations from the Donetsk and Luhansk separatist republics, which are treated as different countries. The numbers are not perfect, but even if they are off by 50%, it still does not change the overall logistics challenge.

The Capacity of the West’s Industrial Base

The winner in a prolonged war between two near-peer powers is still based on which side has the strongest industrial base. A country must either have the manufacturing capacity to build massive quantities of ammunition or have other manufacturing industries that can be rapidly converted to ammunition production. Unfortunately, the West no longer seems to have either.

Presently, the US is decreasing its artillery ammunition stockpiles. In 2020, artillery ammunition purchases decreased by 36% to $425 million. In 2022, the plan is to reduce expenditure on 155mm artillery rounds to $174 million. This is equivalent to 75,357 M795 basic ‘dumb’ rounds for regular artillery, 1,400 XM1113 rounds for the M777, and 1,046 XM1113 rounds for Extended Round Artillery Cannons. Finally, there are $75 million dedicated for Excalibur precision-guided munitions that costs $176K per round, thus totaling 426 rounds. In short, US annual artillery production would at best only last for 10 days to two weeks of combat in Ukraine. If the initial estimate of Russian shells fired is over by 50%, it would only extend the artillery supplied for three weeks.

The US is not the only country facing this challenge. In a recent war game involving US, UK and French forces, UK forces exhausted national stockpiles of critical ammunition after eight days.

Unfortunately, this is not only the case with artillery. Anti-tank Javelins and air-defence Stingers are in the same boat. The US shipped 7,000 Javelin missiles to Ukraine – roughly one-third of its stockpile – with more shipments to come. Lockheed Martin produces about 2,100 missiles a year, though this number might ramp up to 4,000 in a few years. Ukraine claims to use 500 Javelin missiles every day.

The expenditure of cruise missiles and theatre ballistic missiles is just as massive. The Russians have fired between 1,100 and 2,100 missiles. The US currently purchases 110 PRISM, 500 JASSM and 60 Tomahawk cruise missiles annually, meaning that in three months of combat, Russia has burned through four times the US annual missile production. The Russian rate of production can only be estimated. Russia started missile production in 2015 in limited initial runs, and even in 2016 the production runs were estimated at 47 missiles. This means that it had only five to six years of full-scale production. {I give up} {anyne who continues readin let me know in one bullet point what is in the conclusion}

If competition between autocracies and democracies has really entered a military phase, then the arsenal of democracy must radically improve its approach to the production of materiel in wartime
The initial stockpile in February 2022 is unknown, but considering expenditures and the requirement to hold substantial stockpiles back in case of war with NATO, it is unlikely that the Russians are worried. In fact, they seem to have enough to expend operational-level cruise missiles on tactical targets. The assumption that there are 4,000 cruise and ballistic missiles in the Russian inventory is not unreasonable. This production will probably increase despite Western sanctions. In April, ODK Saturn, which makes Kalibr missile motors, announced an additional 500 job openings. This suggests that even in this field, the West only has parity with Russia.

Flawed Assumptions

The first key assumption about future of combat is that precision-guided weapons will reduce overall ammunition consumption by requiring only one round to destroy the target. The war in Ukraine is challenging this assumption. Many ‘dumb’ indirect fire systems are achieving a great deal of precision without precision guidance, and still the overall ammunition consumption is massive. Part of the issue is that the digitisation of global maps, combined with a massive proliferation of drones, allows geolocation and targeting with increased precision, with video evidence demonstrating the ability to score first strike hits by indirect fires.

The second crucial assumption is that industry can be turned on and off at will. This mode of thinking was imported from the business sector and has spread through US government culture. In the civilian sector, customers can increase or decrease their orders. The producer may be hurt by a drop in orders but rarely is that drop catastrophic because usually there are multiple consumers and losses can be spread among consumers. Unfortunately, this does not work for military purchases. There is only one customer in the US for artillery shells – the military. Once the orders drop off, the manufacturer must close production lines to cut costs to stay in business. Small businesses may close entirely. Generating new capacity is very challenging, especially as there is so little manufacturing capacity left to draw skilled workers from. This is especially challenging because many older armament production systems are labour intensive to the point where they are practically built by hand, and it takes a long time to train a new workforce. The supply chain issues are also problematic because subcomponents may be produced by a subcontractor who either goes out of business, with loss of orders or retools for other customers or who relies on parts from overseas, possibly from a hostile country.

China’s near monopoly on rare earth materials is an obvious challenge here. Stinger missile production will not be completed until 2026, in part due to component shortages. US reports on the defence industrial base have made it clear that ramping up production in war-time may be challenging, if not impossible, due to supply chain issues and a lack of trained personnel due to the degradation of the US manufacturing base.

Finally, there is an assumption about overall ammunition consumption rates. The US government has always lowballed this number. From the Vietnam era to today, small arms plants have shrunk from five to just one. This was glaring at the height of the Iraq war, when US started to run low on small arms ammunition, causing the US government to buy British and Israeli ammunition during the initial stage of the war. At one point, the US had to dip into Vietnam and even Second World War-era ammo stockpiles of .50 calibre ammunition to feed the war effort. This was largely the result of incorrect assumptions about how effective US troops would be. Indeed, the Government Accountability Office estimated that it took 250,000 rounds to kill one insurgent. Luckily for the US, its gun culture ensured that small arms ammunition industry has a civilian component in the US. This is not the case with other types of ammunition, as shown earlier with Javelin and Stinger missiles. Without access to government methodology, it is impossible to understand why US government estimates were off, but there is a risk that the same errors were made with other types of munitions.

Conclusion

The war in Ukraine demonstrates that war between peer or near-peer adversaries demands the existence of a technically advanced, mass scale, industrial-age production capability. The Russian onslaught consumes ammunition at rates that massively exceed US forecasts and ammunition production. For the US to act as the arsenal of democracy in defence of Ukraine, there must be a major look at the manner and the scale at which the US organises its industrial base. This situation is especially critical because behind the Russian invasion stands the world’s manufacturing capital – China. As the US begins to expend more and more of its stockpiles to keep Ukraine in the war, China has yet to provide any meaningful military assistance to Russia. The West must assume that China will not allow Russia to be defeated, especially due to a lack of ammunition. If competition between autocracies and democracies has really entered a military phase, then the arsenal of democracy must first radically improve its approach to the production of materiel in wartime.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

The US:

US Army secretary: 5 lessons from the Ukraine conflict

* Leadership On The Battlefield Matters
* ‘Logistics, Logistics, Logistics’
* Reducing Electronic Signature And The Danger Of Cell Phones
* Prepare To Defend Against Drones
* Keep Munitions Stocked
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

The imbeciles the world has to suffer : click on the link, it works !
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

NATO, every 10 years, issues what they call a "Strategic Concept". The following is the one from the recently concluded NATO summit.

NATO 2022 STRATEGIC CONCEPT

What is interesting is, for the first time, the inclusion of China as a threat:
13. The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) stated ambitions and coercive policies
challenge our interests, security and values. The PRC employs a broad range of
political, economic and military tools to increase its global footprint and project
power, while remaining opaque about its strategy, intentions and military build-up.
The PRC’s malicious hybrid and cyber operations and its confrontational rhetoric and
disinformation target Allies and harm Alliance security. The PRC seeks to control key
technological and industrial sectors, critical infrastructure, and strategic materials
and supply chains. It uses its economic leverage to create strategic dependencies
and enhance its influence. It strives to subvert the rules-based international order,
including in the space, cyber and maritime domains. The deepening strategic
partnership between the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation and
their mutually reinforcing attempts to undercut the rules-based international order
run counter to our values and interests.
The "North Atlantic" grouping is now making a case for a presence in the "South Pacific".

With that in mind, NATO invited Japan and South Korea to Madrid:

Japan to join NATO summit for first time as China challenge looms

What to Expect From South Korea's First NATO Summit

Despite Ukraine Focus, Asia-Pacific to Play Prominent Role at NATO Summit
NATO countries meet this week in Madrid, Spain amid Russia’s war on Ukraine, the biggest test the alliance has faced in decades. The summit is expected to focus heavily on demonstrating NATO’s unity, support for Ukraine and the bids of Finland and Sweden — propelled by Russia’s aggressive incursion — to join the alliance. But developments in the Asia-Pacific, chiefly the rise of China, will also be a top item on the agenda, with Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea participating at the leader level for the first time at a NATO summit.

USIP’s Mirna Galic explains how the Asia-Pacific region will factor into the summit and why NATO and its regional partners are stepping up their coordination.

How will the Asia-Pacific feature in NATO’s summit June 29 and 30?

The region will feature in NATO’s summit in two main ways. First, NATO’s regional partners — Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea — have been invited to attend at the head of state and government level, which is new. Although these regional countries have participated in NATO summits before, based on their assistance to NATO missions in Afghanistan, this participation was mostly at a lower minister level. This time, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, New Zealander Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol have all announced plans to attend the summit. Madrid will thus mark a historic occasion with all four of these countries participating in a NATO summit at the leader level for the first time.

The second way that the region will feature is on the topic of China. In a 2019 summit-level communique, NATO acknowledged for the first time that the global scope of China’s rise presented challenges as well as opportunities. By the NATO Summit in Brussels in 2021, NATO’s views on China had begun to take more detailed form. The Brussels Summit Communique issued by NATO heads of state and government noted that China’s “stated ambitions and assertive behavior” presented “systemic challenges to the rules-based international order and to areas relevant to Alliance security,” and detailed areas of concern. The Madrid Summit is likely to further enshrine China in NATO doctrine in the context of renewed great power competition. NATO leaders will endorse the alliance’s new Strategic Concept at the summit, replacing the existing one from 2010, and China is expected to feature in addition to Russia, which is in the current version.

Why are Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea being invited to the NATO summit at the highest level?

NATO’s endeavor to include its Asia-Pacific partners in the Madrid Summit is part of a larger effort in recent years to streamline these partners into NATO’s structures and functions. Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea have been formal partners of NATO since the early 2010s, part of a slate of “partners across the globe,” but they are seen as an increasingly important subset of NATO’s global partners. There is even an informal nickname for these countries, the Asia-Pacific Four or AP4. There are several key reasons for NATO’s special interest in these partner countries.

First is the character of the countries themselves. All four are established democracies that share values with NATO allies, are interested in mitigating international security threats, and have sophisticated and capable militaries. Australia, Japan and South Korea are also U.S. treaty allies, while New Zealand is a close U.S. partner. There are a number of areas where cooperation and coordination between NATO and the Asia-Pacific partners is mutually beneficial, including emerging and disruptive technologies, disinformation, cyber security, maritime security, the rules-based international order and space.

Second is the growing importance of these partner countries’ broader region, the Indo-Pacific. The Indo-Pacific is one of the most dynamic regions in the world, and is expected to be the driver of global economic and technological growth in the decades to come. It is also home to a great power, China, and this takes on added importance as strategic competition between the United States, Russia and China becomes increasingly relevant on the international stage. The significance of the Indo-Pacific region and its impact on global affairs is increasingly realized not only in the United States, but also in Europe.

Third, and relatedly, is the benefit to NATO of having interoperability, coordination and information sharing with countries embedded in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as the messaging and optics on unity this provides. The Asia-Pacific partner countries have a long history of living with China, balancing economic and security imperatives, pushing back on violations of international law, deterring, and dealing with coercive measures, all of which is immensely valuable insight for European partners. Their intelligence and analysis regarding what is happening in the region is likewise of great interest.

Perhaps most importantly, with the reemergence of great power conflict, a strategic competitor sitting in each region, and an evolving Russia-China relationship, there are many common strategic challenges that European and Asia-Pacific partners are having to adapt to that would be valuable for them to discuss together. These include, among others, intermediate-range nuclear forces, missile defense, inter-theater deterrence and defense, and how to push back on great power use of force in contravention of international norms. The last is certainly relevant to the Russian invasion of Ukraine but also has parallels with China and Taiwan, which is why Ukraine is seen as more than a European security issue.

Why do the leaders of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea, in turn, want to attend the NATO summit?

For many of the same reasons that NATO wants them to be there, not least of all the need to adapt to common strategic challenges related to changes in the international system. Just as NATO sees benefits to engaging with partners in the Asia-Pacific on security issues, Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea see a value to engaging with European partners. NATO gives them a convenient platform from which to do that. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also given many of these countries a sense of vulnerability that European security dynamics have not engendered in far-flung regions since the Cold War. There is a clear cognizance that how the world reacts to Russia’s use of force against Ukraine will inform China’s calculations in the region, including on Taiwan. Attending a NATO summit that will heavily address Russia and Ukraine is a way to project unity and to manage the lessons that China is learning from Russia’s actions and the international response to them.

But the Asia-Pacific partners are also very different countries from one another, and they have their own unique interests in NATO relations. South Korea, for example, is less concerned about China and more concerned about North Korea and its nuclear program, a problem on which it hopes to garner Europe’s attention and assistance. President Yoon has also articulated a vision for his country as a “global pivotal state,” for which a NATO platform provides ample opportunity.

What will be very interesting to see is how much the Asia-Pacific partner countries themselves make use of the AP4 grouping. The grouping is a helpful format for NATO, because these countries are its partners in an important region, but there is little to indicate whether the countries themselves see any significant value in organizing themselves in this way. If a rumored summit between Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea on the sidelines of the NATO summit does take place, it could give an interesting indication of the partner countries’ thinking in this regard.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Turkey has negotiated well ! Shows that Eurowokes can be bent quite easily !!

From Telegram: https://t.me/loordofwar/23455
Turkey has lifted its veto on Sweden and Finland joining NATO

Turkey, Sweden and Finland signed a trilateral memorandum.

It looks Turkey got what it wanted

Concrete achievements of the quadrilateral summit:

Full cooperation with Turkey in the fight against the PKK and its offshoots.

Solidarity with Turkey in the fight against all forms and manifestations of terrorism.

Commitment not to support PYD/YPG and FETO.

Lifting of the embargo and expansion of cooperation in the field of defense industry.

Commitment of Sweden and Finland to amend their national legislation and practice in the field of counter-terrorism and defense industry.

Creation of a structured mechanism of cooperation for the exchange of intelligence in the fight against terrorism and organized crime.

The adoption of specific measures for the extradition of persons who have committed terrorist crimes and the conclusion of bilateral contractual agreements.

Prohibition and investigation of fundraising and recruitment activities of the PKK and its affiliates and front organizations.

Prevention of terrorist propaganda against Turkey.

Support for the widest possible participation of Finland and Sweden in the EU security mechanisms, including PESKO (Permanent Structured Cooperation on Security and Defense Issues).

Creation of a Permanent joint Mechanism with the participation of justice, intelligence and security agencies to monitor the implementation of these steps.| #UkraineWar | #Russia | #Ukraine |
Last edited by Cyrano on 29 Jun 2022 22:54, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Cyrano wrote:Turkey has negotiated well ! Shows that Eurowokes can be bent quite easily !!

From Telegram:
Link Saar?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Added link, sorry it got lost in copy paste
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Cyrano wrote:Added link, sorry it got lost in copy paste
No sorry needed. All good. Thank You for adding the link.

No link and some folks will think it is fake news. Already BRF has to wear the moniker of being pro-Russian :mrgreen:
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

More blatant swindling of Russian assets by Euros.

Germany seizes three Gazprom tankers

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/ftse ... 25745.html

June 29, 2022
US-listed Dynagas LNG Partners said Germany’s energy network regulator assumed control of three vessels “for an indefinite period of time” after Berlin took ownership of Gazprom Germania in April. Two Dynagas ships, the Amur River and the Ob River, were chartered to a Gazprom unit until 2028, while the vessel Clean Energy was chartered to the unit until 2026. All have now been taken over by Berlin. Germany seized control of Gazprom Germania, which controls the country’s largest gas storage facility, to secure its energy supplies amid the Ukraine conflict. It has since renamed the company Securing Energy for Europe.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

bala wrote:More blatant swindling of Russian assets by Euros.

Germany seizes three Gazprom tankers

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/ftse ... 25745.html

June 29, 2022
US-listed Dynagas LNG Partners said Germany’s energy network regulator assumed control of three vessels “for an indefinite period of time” after Berlin took ownership of Gazprom Germania in April. Two Dynagas ships, the Amur River and the Ob River, were chartered to a Gazprom unit until 2028, while the vessel Clean Energy was chartered to the unit until 2026. All have now been taken over by Berlin. Germany seized control of Gazprom Germania, which controls the country’s largest gas storage facility, to secure its energy supplies amid the Ukraine conflict. It has since renamed the company Securing Energy for Europe.
You thought that was "bad". About 2/3 weeks ago Nord Stream I as part of scheduled maintenance, Siemens (a German company) sent 6 pumps to (Siemens) Canada to be refurbished. Canada (the nation) impounded them, refusing to return them. That portion of Nord Stream was closed - do not know if the issue was resolved. Here we had an ally sanctioning an ally!! The pumps had nothing to do with "Russia", except for the fact that the gas being pumped came from Russia and based on the physical location of the pumps was already in Germany. Already paid for!!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Cyrano wrote:Turkey has negotiated well ! Shows that Eurowokes can be bent quite easily !!

From Telegram: https://t.me/loordofwar/23455
Turkey has lifted its veto on Sweden and Finland joining NATO

..........
I think there is a lot more to this story.

First, there is an anti-Turkey Swedish MP, of Kurdish descent that was holding this deal up. But, to pass any modifications to the laws in Sweden they needed her (swing) vote. She has gone 'silent'.

Next, the strategic outlook, I posted earlier, was written a long time back - I was able to trace it to at least 5 weeks earlier to the Madrid NATO meet. So, this Turkey related issues had to get hammered out prior to Madrid.

I bet they had planned it such that by April end Russia would have caved in and now June end they would pivot to China (recall in late Feb I had expected them to pivot to India, not China)(India is after China) with full force - having beat Russia. These meets are scripted, so the invites to Japan, SoKo, etc are not some coincidences - they were part of a very wells scripted drama that has gone very badly off script.

I wonder IF Nuland's trip to India, followed by Johnson's, had gone according their script (there was some chatter that she offered to replace all Russian equipment in the Indian armed forces) if India would have been invited to Madrid too.

Finally, Turkey has not given up on working with Russia. That still continues.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ks_sachin »

So in light of the latest developments who is in the ascendancy?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Dilbu »

Putin issues fresh warning to Finland and Sweden on installing Nato infrastructure
Vladimir Putin has issued fresh warnings that Russia would respond in kind if Nato set up military infrastructure in Finland and Sweden after they joined the US-led alliance.

Putin was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying he could not rule out that tensions would emerge in Moscow’s relations with Helsinki and Stockholm over their joining Nato.

“We don’t have problems with Sweden and Finland like we do with Ukraine,” the Russian president told a news conference in the Turkmenistan capital of Ashgabat. “We don’t have territorial differences.”

“If Finland and Sweden wish to, they can join. That’s up to them. They can join whatever they want.” However, he warned “if military contingents and military infrastructure were deployed there, we would be obliged to respond symmetrically and raise the same threats for those territories where threats have arisen for us”.


Russia has repeatedly warned Finland and Sweden against joining Nato, saying the “serious military and political consequences” of such a move would oblige it to “restore military balance” by strengthening its defences in the Baltic Sea region, including by deploying nuclear weapons.
The accession of the two countries into Nato would mean the end of a decades-long status quo that saw Finland, in particular, maintain a degree of neutrality during the cold war in order to avoid a direct confrontation with the Soviet Union.

In the week before the decision, Russia’s foreign ministry announced that it would cut ties with a Finnish NGO and banned two Swedish organisations, the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency and the Swedish Institute. In a statement, the ministry accused the organisations of “focusing on efforts to destabilise Russian society”.

Tensions have risen between Russia and countries in the Baltic region, which are members of Nato, raising concerns of a direct clash between Moscow and members of the security alliance.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/sta ... 3557414915
Novak:

A fairly large percentage of Russian oil and oil products has already been reorientated to Asia.

Russian oil production in June has risen to 9.9m barrels per day.

As we and others predicted. West is going to pay a huge price for its cretinous behaviour.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

A must watch video of a private conversation between Macron and Biden. Ties in to the post above.

Click on the link below and listen to what Macron is saying. Put your volume on high, because Macron is speaking in low tones.

Also read through the rest of the twitter thread. A great analysis. The West appears to have bitten way more than it could chew.

Cyrano, dnivas, NRao, etc....inputs? :)

https://twitter.com/ShellenbergerMD/sta ... 6cXO2DPX9A ---> Biden was counting on Arab nations to produce more oil but a few hours ago French President Macron was overheard telling Biden that the United Arab Emirates is at max capacity & the Saudis can’t produce much more. It appears to be a direct appeal to Biden to produce more oil.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

The hits just keep on coming....

https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1542 ... nASAE-laKg ---> Just in: At 6th Caspian Summit, Russian President Putin mentioned about the International North-South Transport Corridor that connects India with Russia. Calls it a "truly ambitious project" which is a 7,200-kilometre-long "transport artery from St Petersburg to ports in Iran and India."

Image

Image
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Russia muscles in on Indian oil market at expense of OPEC titans
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 58631.html
30 June 2022
Deprived of many of its traditional European buyers, Moscow is on course to deliver somewhere between 1 million and 1.2 million barrels a day to the world’s third-largest oil importer this month, according to tanker tracking figures compiled by Bloomberg and two oil analytics firms.
Refiners in India have been gorging on cheap Russian barrels in a way they never did before the invasion of Ukraine, making it noticeable even to Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president. :lol:
India has defended the Russian purchases, citing its national interest to source cheaper crude. The buying has delivered one part a trove of cash that Russia garnered from commodity markets, funding its war.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

ks_sachin wrote:So in light of the latest developments who is in the ascendancy?
(Globally) India.

Among major players, I really do not see anyone else in the moment or the future.


(IMO, she will remain there even after the dust settles (2030ish))
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

Rakesh wrote:Russia muscles in on Indian oil market at expense of OPEC titans
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 58631.html
30 June 2022
some posters had doubts whether India can process russian "heavy" crude., and as I mentioned the sky is the limit., almost all indian refineries can utilise russian oil ., esp Reliance . Russia can in effect replace middle east oil., limited only by number of tankers available and competitive pricing
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by dnivas »

NRao wrote:
ks_sachin wrote:So in light of the latest developments who is in the ascendancy?
(Globally) India.

Among major players, I really do not see anyone else in the moment or the future.


(IMO, she will remain there even after the dust settles (2030ish))
truly admire how we navigated diplomacy in these crazy times. I deeply now respect our govt.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

First cargo ship leaves Ukraine's occupied port of Berdyansk
https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes. ... l/92573722
June 30, 2022
Berdyansk: A first cargo ship has left the Russian-occupied Ukrainian port of Berdyansk, a local official said on Thursday, after Russia said the port had been de-mined and was ready to resume grain shipments. "After a stoppage of several months the first cargo ship has left the Berdyansk port," Yevgeny Balitsky, a Russian-installed official in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, wrote on the Telegram messaging service.Russia's TASS and RIA news agencies cited Balitsky as saying the first cargo ship to leave Berdyansk was carrying 7,000 tonnes of grain to "friendly countries". Ukraine has accused Russia of stealing grain from the territories that Russian forces have seized since its invasion began in late February. The Kremlin has denied that Russia has stolen any Ukrainian grain. The war threatens to cause severe food shortages as Russia and Ukraine account for around 30% of global wheat exports. Balitsky said on Telegram the cargo ship was being protected by Russia's Black Sea fleet. Earlier this month Russia's defence minister said the Ukrainian ports of Berdyansk and Mariupol, controlled by Russian forces, were ready to resume grain shipments.Western countries have accused Russia of creating the risk of global famine by stopping Ukraine from exporting grain via its Black Sea ports. Moscow denies responsibility for the international food crisis, blaming Western sanctions.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

dnivas wrote:truly admire how we navigated diplomacy in these crazy times. I deeply now respect our govt.
Amen to that dnivas-ji.

India has to learn to be extremely selfish and only look out for her *OWN* interests. Under this Govt, that message is being delivered. Jaishankar-ji explained it best in two words - Multipolar Alignment. Do not be in anyone's camp, other than your own.

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Amid sanctions, Russia becomes India’s top DAP fertiliser supplier
https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... r-7999606/
30 June 2022
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Vayutuvan »

Rakesh wrote:The hits just keep on coming....

https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1542 ... nASAE-laKg ---> Just in: At 6th Caspian Summit, Russian President Putin mentioned about the International North-South Transport Corridor that connects India with Russia. Calls it a "truly ambitious project" which is a 7,200-kilometre-long "transport artery from St Petersburg to ports in Iran and India."
A map of the alignment of the corridor.
(Link --> https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map ... _343796661)

Image
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

Wont be surprised if the west gets all chummy with Iran as the INSTC gets going !!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Vayutuvan wrote:A map of the alignment of the corridor.
(Link --> https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map ... _343796661)
Thank You. Going forward, please provide the link/source for the image. I have added it in your post.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Vayutuvan »

Rakesh wrote:Going forward, please provide the link/source for the image. I have added it in your post.
Sure. Will do.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

dnivas wrote: truly admire how we navigated diplomacy in these crazy times. I deeply now respect our govt.
kit wrote:Wont be surprised if the west gets all chummy with Iran as the INSTC gets going !!
It is as though history never happened. Here we now have a war cry for "Global Alliance for Freedom", from Jun 22, 2022, at the Hudson Institute:

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/sta ... 1473985542
NordStream 1 pipeline will be shutdown completely for scheduled repairs from July 11th to 21st.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Surreal

France wants cap on oil prices worldwide — not just Russia

AND

Could a cartel of large energy consumers cut oil and gas prices?
Italy’s PM Mario Draghi suggests big consumers club together to limit how much is paid and raises idea of EU gas price cap
These guys make up a minority in this world. Their power is fading. And, here we are. They still want to rule
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by hnair »

Europe’s greatest fear is that India and China will snap up the European segment of Russian oil and gas, causing an even more adverse market situation for them and their voters.

US’ greatest fear is that India and China will make Russian hydrocarbons as the base instead of from their client states of ME, cutting off influence in pricing.

All this accusing India of not supporting Ukraine because India bought oil from Russia is just that. They don’t care about Ukrainians dying, blue eyed or not.
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