Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 18 Jul 2022 01:28

NRao wrote:Putin is already at war with Europe. There is only one way to stop him

Simon Tisdall wakes up. Again!!

He has weaponised food, energy and refugees, spreading economic and political pain across the continent. Sanctions don’t work, a land for peace deal would be a disaster. Only the military route remains

The UK rags always cheer lead for more war. what does the little pathetic island now have. 80K soldiers. Hope they are soon cut to irrelevancy. US and UK media is now completely compromised by the security state.

Parasu · Post by **Parasu** » 18 Jul 2022 01:32

bala wrote:This expands on the previous YT posted by Rakesh and is about speakers opinion on India which can be used to justify India's stance on Russia-Ukr tussle. One thing that comes out is that India is viewed as partner in many things and is not disruptive like neighboring China.

Chasing the Monsoon: Life@75

ORF is an extremely pro-West thinktank.
Their articles on the Ukraine war are bordering on propaganda.
Its kinda amazing that Indian govt are allowing, in fact funding, such thinktanks in the country. Other funders are google, facebook, microsoft etc. That's just a shade below funding by US govt proxies.
This is one genie that Jaishankar has released which may be difficult to put back in.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 18 Jul 2022 12:24

From various reportings during that period, F, G & I leaders told elensly he cant win this war, even a stalemate is impossible since even if NATO keeps supplying weapons, he will run out of soldiers to use them. And NATO doesn't want a direct war with Russia. elensly wavered, and it seems agreed with them. (Speculation: Scholz recounted this to von Der Lying who snitched to BoJo & White House.) The very next day BoJo came to Kiev and squeezed elensly's balls. (Speculation: threatened to revoke British passports for him & his near & dear and freeze his & their assets, no future asylum. There are many Ukrainian oligarchs though media will have us think its only a Russian species).

Transatlantic lines buzzed, Macron had Uber gate foisted on him. French press was full of revelations on how Macron pleaded and fought for Uber when he was fin min under Holland. Any hopes Macron had of appointing a govt that does his bidding vanished and he quickly fell in line. Hence the above fake bravado statements.

The reality is, EU leaders are not yet feeling the pinch of their own sanctions, EU people are right now busy getting drunk on sunny beaches. It will all hit the fan in September and the fan will crash on their heads by end of the year.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 18 Jul 2022 12:38

Comrade Cyrano F, G & I leaders is France, Germany and Italy?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 18 Jul 2022 12:40

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Jul 2022 15:38

Ekenskyy fired his security chief, who was his लंगोटी यार and business manager when he was a joker by profession (now by need).

Zelensky fires two officials after dozens of staffers' "collaboration" with Russia

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Jul 2022 15:42

Nothing beyond headline

POLITICSRussia sending teachers to Ukraine to control what students learn

arvin · Post by **arvin** » 18 Jul 2022 16:06

NRao wrote:Ekenskyy fired his security chief, who was his लंगोटी यार and business manager when he was a joker by profession (now by need).

Zelensky fires two officials after dozens of staffers' "collaboration" with Russia

That was a good one.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 18 Jul 2022 18:47

Not just anybody, but elensly fired the head of Ukraine's domestic security agency and its prosecutor general
French news reports state that he was unhappy with the way their investigations on Bucha were turning out. May be they were asking uncomfortable questions and getting close to the truth - which is Bucha was a staged media event, though the victims are real. They were civilians suspected of collaborating with Russia with no proof not due process were summarily executed by SBU goons and Right Sector militias. Withdrawing Russian troops gave out their army ration packs to poor civilians near Bucha, and 2/3 days later when SBU & RS raided these areas they shot people for simply having these ration packs or other pretexts like wearing a white arm band to identify self as civilians or simply I dont like your face. Then UK got onto it and with elensly regime staged the media wailing about Bucha massacre by withdrawing Russians with slickly filmed videos which BBC and the rest of the media played up to high heavens and we know the rest.

This is the kind of scum von der Lying wants to invite into EU while wokasming in every public meeting about European Values...

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 18 Jul 2022 18:55

If folks remember Russia asked the UN for an independent investigation into Bucha which is the demand India and other neutral countries also made. UK had blocked it and no one heard of any such investigation since.

Once this war is over, elensly if he is still alive, his buddies, a whole lot of Ukrainian officials and a whole lot of Ukranians will have a lot, a terrible ghastly lot of crimes and misdemeanours to answer for. Not just them, a whole lot of EU officials, politicians, OSCE, even RedCross have done unconscionable things that will put Nazi collaborators to shame.

Thats one reason all these people are doubling down in a desperate hope that Russia will lose.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Jul 2022 21:06

AoA. We have reached the promised land.

Canada accused of betraying Ukraine and helping Russia break sanctions

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 19 Jul 2022 05:50

'Alaska is ours': Local Russian advertisement sparks outrage on social media

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 19 Jul 2022 07:06

Putin Thinks He's Winning

Interesting guest essay in the NY Times by Tatiana Stanovaya of Carnegie:

To summarize, why does Putin think he will win is divided into 3 grand pieces:

First, because his immediate military goals have been reduced to capturing the entire Donbass region which he believes will happen soon. He also believes that notwithstanding what Ukraine is saying now about the recapture of Ukranian territory captured by Russia, that the West realizes that is a lost cause and the borders of the new Ukraine will no longer include the Donbass or Crimea.

Second, because he believes that the continuation of the conflict after the capture of the Donbass region will so weaken and exhaust and demoralzie Ukraine over a period of 2-3 years that the Ukranian elite will get rid of Zelensky and sue for peace with Russia on Russia's terms which will include "Russification" of the country, giving pride of place to Russian culture and cutting off links with the West.

And the third, because he does not believe that the West is universally bad. He believes that there is a "good" west and a "bad" west. The bad west is what is currently waging it's war on Russia. The good West is represented by people who have elected and will elect in the future leaders such as Victor Orban in Hungary, Marie Le Pen in France and Donald Trump in the US. He believes that people and politicians in the West move from electoral cycle to electoral cycle with no real long term strategic goal in mind. And therefore he believes that after a period of time, the electorate in the West will tire of high inflation, energy shortages etc. and will elect leaders who in his mind are the "good" west. Once these politicians come to power, he believes that they will be ready to accept Russia's demands.

While this is a fascinating thought process, what the author concludes is that if these 3 grand pieces on Putin's chessboard do not move according to his expectation, he will be at his most dangerous and could lash out. Also, while Putin has done a pretty good job in analyzing the brittle and vulnerable areas of his adversaries, he has not assumed any vulnerability for Russia at all. In other words, in Putin's mind, all the sanctions which Russia is being subject to will not have any impact either on the capacity and capability of Russia to wage war nor will it have any impact on his hold on power. That IMO is highly presumptous.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 19 Jul 2022 08:22

My other question is on the US transport fleet, I think NATO has about 8-15 Awacs in the air from Black sea to Poland Belarus Border to keep a track on the RUAF and incoming CM's to warn Ukranian Air defences, plus with Ukraine needing, Food, Fuel, Ammo, spare parts to keep fighting a large part of the US transport fleet must be put to use to keep Ukraine in the fight. Plus imagine the truck fleet which is required to move these from Poland to the frontlines

These Assets must be logging a lot of hours consuming lots crew manhours, spare parts and fuel. At some point the readiness will suffer. The Russians must be suffering a lot as well, the only thing is fighting is close to their Railway heads. They are mobilizing local industry to wartime production to keep their logistics up. Nobody is going to go public with thier problems.

Another 2-3 months of this someone has to blink first. I just hope the equipment run out before too many Ukrainians and Russians are dead.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 19 Jul 2022 18:48

IMO, we need to focus on the macro end of this Russia-Ukraine/West (which includes Australia, Japan, South Korea, and even perhaps Taiwan) conflict. The military component is the micro, IMO, and has become irrelevant.

As a great example, we have Uncle Tony wake up and talk:

Global dominance of West is coming to an end, says Tony Blair

2 days ago:

For the first time in modern history, the East can be on equal terms with the West, as the global dominance of the US and its allies comes to an end, former British prime minister Tony Blair has said.

..................

Is the East ready to lead? Or is the East still in an "Analysis" mode (which it is great at)

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 19 Jul 2022 19:55

India & Ru set to trade oil not in US $$ but UAE Dirhams https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-07-18/

kit · Post by **kit** » 19 Jul 2022 20:03

Good idea, staying away from yuan.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 19 Jul 2022 21:42

IndraD wrote:India & Ru set to trade oil not in US $$ but UAE Dirhams https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-07-18/

https://twitter.com/maphumanintent/stat ... 4074371073

Original tweet dated Feb 28, 2022

This has, perhaps, been in the pipeline for more than a year

Oh

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 20 Jul 2022 04:23

Gazprom, Iran Sign Tentative $40BN Energy Deal As Russia Threatens Europe Gas Supply

Russian state energy giant Gazprom has signed a major deal with Iran worth billions at a moment President Putin is in Tehran to meet with President Ebrahim Raisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The agreement comes also at a tense moment that Gazprom has said it cannot guarantee gas supplies to Europe, and as the IMF is warning European governments and populations to begin rationing gas usage for a coming supply "emergency".

...............

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 20 Jul 2022 04:28

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1 ... 9675121665

IMF to Europe: "Governments must [...] plan to share supplies in an emergency across the EU, act decisively to encourage energy savings while protecting vulnerable households, and prepare smart gas rationing programs."

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 20 Jul 2022 08:24

EU Moves To Unblock Russian Bank Funds To Boost Food Trade

The EU is preparing to carve out exceptions in its tough sanctions against Moscow that would unblock assets at Russian banks linked to trade in food and fertiliser, a document showed on Tuesday.

..........

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 20 Jul 2022 09:10

NRao wrote:
IndraD wrote:India & Ru set to trade oil not in US $$ but UAE Dirhams https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-07-18/

https://twitter.com/maphumanintent/stat ... 4074371073

Original tweet dated Feb 28, 2022

This has, perhaps, been in the pipeline for more than a year

Oh

That twitter feed has the following message:

This Tweet is from an account that no longer exists

I think he is on the run for breaking sanctions relating to dealing with Russian banks and acting as an intermediary

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 20 Jul 2022 10:56

EU Shipowners Race to Move Russian Oil Before Sanctions Kick In

Greek tankers are carrying record levels of Russian seaborne oil cargoes to China and India as the European market is drying up

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 20 Jul 2022 10:59

Price cap on Russian oil is a 'ridiculous idea' and could push oil to $140, says energy research group

The proposed price cap on Russian oil is a "ridiculous idea" that could backfire on the U.S. and the other Group of 7 countries, according to the co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security.

....

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 20 Jul 2022 13:19

Those 50 seconds that Erdogan made Putin wait, looking frazzled in-front of cameras say plenty of how much has changed after Ukraine:
https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/ ... RpT2LSTpjw

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 20 Jul 2022 16:42

Provoked the bear.

Now the dragon.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 20 Jul 2022 20:48

Turkish president tells US to remove forces from northern Syria

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called on the United States to leave northern Syria, saying the withdrawal could weaken "terror groups" supported by Washington.

"The US needs to leave the areas on the east of the river Euphrates, this is our conclusion at the Astana [talks]," Erdogan told a group of journalists who accompanied him to Tehran on Tuesday for a trilateral summit with his Iranian and Russian counterparts.

"It is the US that feeds the terror groups there; it would ease our work if the US withdraws or cuts support to these groups."

In recent weeks, the Turkish military has been sending reinforcements to northern Syria, especially areas near the town of Tal Rifaat, which is held by the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a US-backed Kurdish militia that Turkey considers the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), and a terror group.

The operation, if it goes forward, will be the fourth of its kind mounted by Ankara in northern Syria since 2016, and will be conducted with the declared purpose of combatting threats to Turkey from the Islamic State (IS) group and PKK-allied Syrian Kurdish groups, as well as enabling the resettlement of internally displaced Syrians.

Erdogan said Iran and Russia were in agreement against the PKK and YPG, and the group was also hurting the Syrian government.

“This terror group is sucking the oil wells in the east of the river Euphrates, they exploit them and then sell them to the regime,” Erdogan said, adding that the US was still aiding and abetting the Syrian Kurdish groups.

...............

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 20 Jul 2022 21:15

Defence industry: EU to reinforce the European defence industry through common procurement with a €500 million instrument

............

Executive Vice-President, Margarethe Vestager, said: “Member States have taken bold steps by transferring urgently needed defence equipment to Ukraine. In the same spirit of solidarity, the EU will help them replenish these stocks by incentivising joint procurement, allowing the European defence industry to respond better these urgent needs. The proposal for the EDIRPA Regulation is a historical milestone in establishing the EU Defence Union, increasing the security of EU citizens and making the EU a stronger partner for our allies.”

...........

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 20 Jul 2022 21:26

https://twitter.com/AmrullahSaleh2/stat ... NcGrFIeBtg ---> US envoy: "Had we stayed in Afg we wd have not been able to support Ukraine against Russia" i.e. US conspired with lesser or perhaps fake enemy to fight the big one. The depth of deception, lies & immorality of a covert policy surfacing day by day. That is why GHQ & HQN are in charge.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 20 Jul 2022 23:03

^^^^^

For two reasons:
* Funding the local governments. US funded A'stan gov and are now funding UKR gov
* Perhaps more important of the two, the risk for American lives was better managed. Recall there was some chatter about Russian money on American heads. However, now this has moved to Syria. Turkey/Russia have told US to leave the region. I am assuming there is an "Else" clause somewhere in there that was deliberately left out

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 21 Jul 2022 06:40

Further escalation.

Nothing of worth beyond the title.

Russian-hating dream of Brzezinski Clan nears fulfillment as Poland agrees to host permanent U.S. base and turn Baltic Sea into NATO Lake

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 21 Jul 2022 07:57

https://twitter.com/adegrandpre/status/ ... 1842185216

USAF chief says there are several possibilities among US- or European-made jets. Options include the Gripen made in Sweden, the Rafale made in France & the Eurofighter Typhoon, built by a consortium of firms in several countries

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 22 Jul 2022 18:21

Interesting:

Refugee distribution:

Meanwhile:

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... 7444808708

The African migrants who stormed an asylum camp for Ukrainian refugees in Paris, France on July 17, have released a video from the event.

They protest what they call preferential treatment for Ukrainians and demand “residency rights and housing for all”.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 24 Jul 2022 21:19

Orban urges new strategy on Ukraine, says sanctions have failed

The European Union needs a new strategy on the war in Ukraine as sanctions against Moscow have not worked, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Saturday.

“A new strategy is needed which should focus peace talks and drafting a good peace proposal…instead of winning the war,” Orban said in a speech in Romania.

Orban, reelected for a fourth consecutive term in April, reiterated that Hungary – a NATO member – would stay out of the war in neighbouring Ukraine.

He is facing his toughest challenge since taking power in 2010, with inflation in double digits, a weak forint and EU funds still held up amid a dispute with Brussels over democratic standards.

..........

kit · Post by **kit** » 24 Jul 2022 22:08

Rakesh wrote: https://twitter.com/AmrullahSaleh2/stat ... NcGrFIeBtg ---> US envoy: "Had we stayed in Afg we wd have not been able to support Ukraine against Russia" i.e. US conspired with lesser or perhaps fake enemy to fight the big one. The depth of deception, lies & immorality of a covert policy surfacing day by day. That is why GHQ & HQN are in charge.

the more i think of it Brexit was also for similar reasoning ., only pushed through because powers that be realised this could be useful

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 25 Jul 2022 16:44

kit wrote:
the more i think of it Brexit was also for similar reasoning ., only pushed through because powers that be realised this could be useful

I think you are right. 2013 Brexit was proposed. 2014 Maidan, 2015 Minsk 2 collapses & Brexit referendum is held... Britain gets deeply involved in Ukraine, subordinated to the US but influential on the ground - 2022 war breaks out, and BoJo proposes European Commonwealth with Baltic states & Poland, etc...

Designed to destabilize continental Europe, undermine the European Union and ultimately weaken Germany, leaving Britain primus inter pares in Europe under the American wing - with NATO holding the others under a protectorate relationship.

kit · Post by **kit** » 25 Jul 2022 18:38

JE Menon wrote:
kit wrote:
the more i think of it Brexit was also for similar reasoning ., only pushed through because powers that be realised this could be useful
I think you are right. 2013 Brexit was proposed. 2014 Maidan, 2015 Minsk 2 collapses & Brexit referendum is held... Britain gets deeply involved in Ukraine, subordinated to the US but influential on the ground - 2022 war breaks out, and BoJo proposes European Commonwealth with Baltic states & Poland, etc...

Designed to destabilize continental Europe, undermine the European Union and ultimately weaken Germany, leaving Britain primus inter pares in Europe under the American wing - with NATO holding the others under a protectorate relationship.

Indeed also why Johnson clung on to be PM and also why Rishi wont get to be PM but the "follower" Truss will. This is all gamed and planned out.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 25 Jul 2022 22:48

The Putin-Erdogan power play on display at the recent tripartite summit in Iran. Erodan made Putin wait for 45-50 seconds and Putin is seen as visibly irritated, shuffling his feet and pursing his lips. This footage including closeups was filmed by the Turkish Government news agency Anadolu and distributed to news outlets, I guess to rub in Putin's discomfort!! This is in response to Putin having made Erdogan wait for him at their prior meeting in Moscow. But Putin is known to make other leaders wait for him beyond the scheduled meeting times. In the past, in meetings in Moscow which he has hosted, he has made Modi wait for an hour, Abe for more than 2 hours and Merkel for as long as 4 hours!!

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 25 Jul 2022 22:49

https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/ ... Cz6Yu8Dhlg ---> US NatSec advisor Jake Sullivan: We are not prepared to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles, ATACMS with a range of 300 km. Our key goal is to support and defend Ukraine, and another key goal is to ensure that we're not heading down the road toward a 3rd World war.

kit · Post by **kit** » 25 Jul 2022 22:54

Rakesh wrote:

https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/ ... Cz6Yu8Dhlg ---> US NatSec advisor Jake Sullivan: We are not prepared to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles, ATACMS with a range of 300 km. Our key goal is to support and defend Ukraine, and another key goal is to ensure that we're not heading down the road toward a 3rd World war.

Its true , they dont want a full-blown conflict with a nuclear power., but then they can bleed it slowly ., in other words Uks must fight on uncle's terms., to the last Ukrainian !!

, as look as Idiotsky is at the helm this would indeed go on