Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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kit
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »



@1030 .. feeling the temperature ., is Putin going crazy ?

Why is America desperate to hold on to its embassy in Moscow ?

Those Geo strategists in BRF want to try connect the dots ?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Dilbu »

China, Russia Give Differing Accounts of Xi-Putin Phone Call
Russia and China gave alternative accounts of President Xi Jinping’s birthday call with Vladimir Putin, as both sides seek to manage perceptions of their relationship in the wake of Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

The Kremlin readout said the two men, both 69, discussed increasing economic cooperation, trade and military-technical ties between China and Russia on Wednesday. Moscow’s version also implied the Chinese leader endorsed Putin’s justification for invading Ukraine, saying Xi noted the “legitimacy of Russia’s actions in protecting its fundamental national interests in the face of security challenges created by external forces.”

Chinese state broadcaster CCTV, by contrast, said Xi “actively promoted world peace and the stability of the global economic order” during the call. He pushed all parties to find “a proper settlement to the Ukraine crisis in a responsible manner,” the report added, making no mention of military ties or increasing trade links.
Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow and chair of the Russia in Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, said the Kremlin’s readout of the call was geared toward a domestic audience. Putin is trying to project strength at home, after being forced to narrow his war goals to the east by his failure to quickly take Kyiv and other key cities. China’s version, Gabuev said, was clearly more mindful of the West, where its war response is under great scrutiny.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by dnivas »

Sergei lavrov whipping BBC mercilessly - June 16,2022
https://translate.yandex.com/translate? ... lang=ru-en

some excerpts

Question: Let's look at the implications. It's been four months. The result: thousands of civilians were killed, more than 14 million Ukrainian residents were forced to leave their homes, significant losses of Russian troops, a lot of sanctions against Russia. Is this the right decision?

Sergey Lavrov: I tell you once again: we had no other choice. We have explained all this many times, a thousand times. Now the Ukrainian regime is using your Western weapons to attack civilians and cities, just as they did in 2014, when the putschists came to power, when they bombed the center of Luhansk from airplanes, when they burned 50 people in Odessa. Does anyone remember this now?
Question: Why do you think that NATO is a threat? Why it is often said in Russia that there are five waves of NATO expansion.

Sergey Lavrov: I believe that NATO is a threat, because we have long been close friends with our friends in Serbia. They told us what the North Atlantic Alliance is. In Afghanistan, those Afghans with whom we have relations (from almost all ethnic groups) also tell us what the alliance is and how it bombed wedding ceremonies. Just because they thought: why did some people come together? We need to bomb them just in case.

I explain to you why NATO is a threat. Talk to the citizens of Iraq and Libya, whose country was destroyed to the ground. After that, NATO declares itself still a defensive alliance. We are told not to worry, Ukraine's entry into NATO (we were told so) will not pose a threat to the Russian Federation. With all due respect to our colleagues in the North Atlantic Alliance, Russia has the right to decide for itself what is a threat to its security and what is not.
Question: Before the annexation of Crimea in 2014, there were no NATO troops in Eastern Europe...

Sergey Lavrov: I will tell you more, and there was no annexation of the Crimea.

Question: Then, as a result of the annexation of Crimea in 2016, 4,500 military personnel appeared. After February 24, 2022– 40 thousand. This is the result of Russia's actions.

Sergey Lavrov: You're a smart person. These are facts. I'll give you some other facts. All your analytics are based on the same"cancellation culture". You change everything that preceded the event that you decide to call either an invasion or an annexation. What happened on February 21, 2014 in Ukraine? What we call a coup d'etat. What do you call it?
Question: That is, Russia is "white and fluffy"?

Sergey Lavrov: Russia is neither white nor fluffy. It is what it is. We are not ashamed to show ourselves as we are.

Can I ask you something so that I can understand the politics of your media about the tragedy in Bucha? Did you report it? They probably said that Russia did it. Right? The Guardian newspaper, published in London, later received the results of a preliminary forensic examination, which showed that the vast majority of people whose corpses were shown on all television channels around the world were injured by artillery shells.

Question: The purpose of your question? We don't have much time. :evil:

Sergey Lavrov: We don't have much time, but you don't want to explain to me :rotfl: why you're always telling lies, to put it mildly. Did I ask you how the BBC covered the events in Butch?
Question: Can you categorically state that there will no longer be a special operation and Russia's invasion of other neighboring territories?

Sergey Lavrov: We took your word for it for a very long time. Your fellow soldiers and compatriots, together with other members of the North Atlantic Alliance, have solemnly proclaimed the principle of the indivisibility of security, when no one has the right to strengthen their own security at the expense of the security of others. When we said that the five-fold expansion of NATO violates our security, we were simply ignored. Now French President Emmanuel Macron has said that they should talk to Russia, they should not humiliate the Russians.

Question: In the eyes of the West, Russia is responsible for the fate of these people. You don't think this is a death sentence…

Sergey Lavrov: I :rotfl: 'm not interested in" eyes of the West " at all. I am only interested in international law, according to which mercenaries are not combatants. So it doesn't matter what's in your eyes.
Question: What do you think about relations with the UK now? To say that they are bad is an understatement.

Sergey Lavrov: In my opinion, there is no longer any room for maneuver in these relations. Both B. Johnson and E. Truss publicly declare that they must defeat Russia, bring it to its knees. Come on, bet!

Question: How does Moscow see the UK now?

Sergey Lavrov: This is a country that is once again trying to sacrifice the interests of its people to the ambitions of politicians who think only about the next election and nothing else.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Do not know what to say: A waste of time, funds, energy, ......? Instead of focusing on own economy, which is declining, they spend time on how to destroy someone else's economy.

'They're like our nerd warriors': How the Treasury Department is waging economic war on Russia
Deep within the Treasury Building, a new era of economic warfare is underway -- waged by government lawyers, accountants, economists and finance whizzes
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

BBC has promptly put up an article titled “Lavrov fact checked” …if one reads that there isnt much that they could fact check him on :mrgreen: Looks like there was a lot of burnol required.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine ... ?r=US&IR=T

The Ukranians are outdoing Pakistanis now. They are charging people to write custom messages on shells that were a gift in the first place.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Putin lambasts the West and declares the end of 'the era of the unipolar world'
Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared the end of "the era of the unipolar world" in a combative speech that lambasted Western countries at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Friday.
The much-hyped speech was delayed by more than 90 minutes because of a "massive" cyberattack. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told journalists in an impromptu conference call that the speech was postponed due to distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks on the conference's systems.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

St Petersburg International Economic Forum Plenary session

Putin's entire speech in English.

Worth a read.

As he said, in the speech, unipolar world order is over.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

From the horse's mouth:

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/ ... 0942991360
Ukrainians are ready to die for the European perspective.

We want them to live with us the European dream.
Image
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/ ... 8257720321
Lithuania has begun to gradually stifle rail transit to the Kaliningrad region. Lithuanian Railways has notified Kaliningrad Railway of the termination of the transit of a number of goods subject to EU sanctions from Saturday.
Image
thread
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Vayutuvan »

Is that a casus belli from Lithuania? How can they stop Russians moving goods within their own country? Some treaty or other must be governing this corridor to operate even when there is war going on.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by sanjaykumar »

^^ Errr… war, Nazis, globalisation of a local bush conflict. They are living the European dream.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Dilbu »

EU is considering providing membership to Ukraine, if any of it or whatever will be left of it, when this is over.
EU says Ukraine should be given candidate status to join bloc
The European Commission has said Ukraine should be given candidate status to join the EU, in a show of confidence in the wartime government of Volodymyr Zelenskiy and a diplomatic blow to Vladimir Putin.

The EU executive also recommended candidate status for Moldova, another former Soviet state that launched an EU membership bid soon after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But it gave a more guarded response to Georgia, saying the country needed to carry out further anti-corruption and judicial reforms.

EU leaders will decide next week whether to grant the three states EU candidate status, although full membership would be likely to take years. The decision would be a historic step for Ukraine, where reformers have been seeking democratic change since the Maidan protests of 2014, events that were the prelude to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and war on its neighbour.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Dr. John Mearsheimer (University of Chicago) gave 1 hours 10 minutes long "upgraded" talk yesterday. I say "upgraded" because he has been saying that "Putin is not at fault", at least, since 2015 (and his talks are always much shorter).

In this talk he provides a few more important events & dates that made the illegal invasion of Ukraine, by Russia, as rational one. He also provides what he sees in the future - fallout, if you will. There is a 50 minutes (interesting) Q&A

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

EU membership candidate status is akin to getting a waiting token when you are already standing in a queue. Means nothing in terms of progress. Ukraine has to do a lot of work against corruption, rule of law and systemic reform, build institutions etc, which could take decades.

The driving force behind this is van Der Lying. She has made it a personal affair to get Ukraine in by hook or crook. Macron, Scholz and others know it, and they keep making noises now and then to keep the charade going. They know that France & Germany will have to foot the bill for Ukraine & its 50 million people for many years if they become part of EU.

BoJo and Biden would love to see this albatross around EU's neck.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

The Russians didn't object to Ukrainian's EU membership. They objected to the Ukrainian NATO membership.

But that was before the war.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

Cyrano wrote:
BoJo and Biden would love to see this albatross around EU's neck.
Brexit. suddenly makes sense :((
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vijayk »

Is it possible Modi will mediate between Biden and Putin? Biden screwed up US economy, world economy and are staring at meltdown of entire world economy. Modi and Macron can help facilitate a dialogue between the two. Germany, UK burned all the bridges.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Cyrano wrote: .................

BoJo and Biden would love to see this albatross around EU's neck.
They had to. The German/Russian relation - the one they fear the most - had got close enough.

(Aside: Just as India is taking advantage of the situation on the Russian front, wish India takes adv on the German front too - tech wise - by providing a place to land.)

_________________________

Aside: Are NATO nations sort-of-running-out-of-arms?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by dnivas »

NRao wrote:Dr. John Mearsheimer (University of Chicago) gave 1 hours 10 minutes long "upgraded" talk yesterday. I say "upgraded" because he has been saying that "Putin is not at fault", at least, since 2015 (and his talks are always much shorter).

In this talk he provides a few more important events & dates that made the illegal invasion of Ukraine, by Russia, as rational one. He also provides what he sees in the future - fallout, if you will. There is a 50 minutes (interesting) Q&A


I watched his original speech and now this is great as well. In at 30 mins so far. Thanks for posting.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

John Mearsheimer stated that the 2008 decision by Bush Dubya to expand Nato was a dumb decision by the Yanks. During this period both Germany and France were dead set against the proposal, Merkel herself stated opposition. The UK bozos were also against it but for reasons known only to them they decided to back the US. Ukr was the ideal buffer between Euros and Rus. Poland was reminded that if Ukr were to give up being neutral and join Nato then Rus would be on Polish borders, which is imminent. Germany is at receiving end of the current tussle, france perhaps a little less. UK since its exit (Brexit) is smugly smiling at the mischief it unleashed in Europe. Yes I agree with Cyrano's observation - "BoJo and Biden would love to see this albatross around EU's neck."
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1 ... 5886418944
BREAKING: Lithuania announces that its goods transit ban to Kaliningrad will take effect today
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Finger pointing at its best:

U.S. Restraint Has Created an Unstable and Dangerous World
By H. R. McMaster, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and a former U.S. national security advisor, and Gabriel Scheinmann, the executive director of the Alexander Hamilton Society.
Decades of ignoring the menaces posed by Russia and China has led the West to a precipice.
JUNE 17, 2022, 10:36 AM
The Biden administration failed to deter Russia from its second invasion of
Ukraine. Like his predecessors in the White House, U.S. President Joe Biden
went to great lengths to placate and reassure Russian President Vladimir Putin
in return for stable relations. Biden defied Congress when he refused to
sanction the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, unilaterally extended U.S. adherence to
the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty without reciprocation by Russia, and
honored Putin with a bilateral summit during his first overseas trip. As Putin
amassed his troops on Ukraine’s borders, Biden pulled U.S. naval forces out of
the Black Sea, refused to send additional weapons to Ukraine, enumerated
everything the United States would not do to help Ukraine defend itself, and
evacuated U.S. Embassy staff and military advisors. More broadly, the
administration proposed a real cut to the defense budget; sought to reduce the
role of nuclear weapons in U.S. defense strategy; restricted U.S. production
capacity for oil, gas, and refined products that might have displaced Russian
supplies; and signaled its willingness to overlook Russian and Chinese
aggression in exchange for hollow pledges of cooperation on global issues such
as climate change. After surrendering Afghanistan to a terrorist organization
and conducting a humiliating retreat from Kabul, the administration’s
attempts to deter the Russian invasion with threats of punishment were simply
not credible.

Deterrence, however, does not disintegrate overnight. Contrary to the narrative
of U.S. belligerence and imperialism that has been impressed on countless
university students, the United States has, since the end of World War II,
largely pursued a policy of restraint despite its considerable military power.
Unlike other superpowers, it has not sought territories or treasure—on the
contrary, it incurred considerable expense to foster a peaceful international
order where other nations could thrive. Under the belief that a market
economy, normal trading relations, and a democratic wave would foster liberal
democracy everywhere, Washington even sought to elevate, embrace, and
enrich its former Cold War enemies. From the World Bank to the International
Space Station, the World Trade Organization to the Paris Agreement,
Washington welcomed Moscow and Beijing into Western institutions—in other
words, into the order Washington had previously tried to keep them from
tearing down. Seeking to partner with Moscow and Beijing in the pursuit of
global prosperity and a peaceful planet, Washington bridled its power by
undertaking a generational drawdown of military forces and capabilities.
Indeed, global prosperity grew and the number of democracies in the world
steadily rose. As conviction rose in Washington that both China and Russia had
transformed from adversaries to partners, U.S. restraint seemed a rational
choice.

However, restraint was not reciprocated. As the United States reduced its
defense spending to the lowest share of GDP since 1940, Russia and China
embarked on the largest military modernization and expansion programs their
countries had seen in generations. They bullied their neighbors (or in Russia’s
case, attacked and occupied them), corroded the institutions they joined, and
sought to eliminate their citizens’ liberties. U.S. restraint was interpreted as
weakness. Ignoring these menaces has now led the West to the most dangerous
precipice since the depths of the Cold War.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Kiev regime has used Western training most effectively in the field of narrative management, and as it often happened, against the west itself.

In the beginning they were capturing and towing away Russian tanks with their farmers' tractors, then they were blowing apart T72 hulls like they were cooking crabs, taking 100s of beardless Russian pows etc.

This is how a scam operates, making you believe that winning against impossible odds is possible. Especially if stars are endorsing on TV 24*7. Create FOMO among piddly European countries that have no armies and can even police their own suburbs that they can be part of history's greatest ever takedown for just a few billion down payment and then monthly installments which are accepted in cash and kind (as per arms supply wish list).

Once enough investors got sucked in, ensure no one backs out by staging grim horrors like Bucha - lock kar do. And get EU stooges to make public photo opps _relayed massively in their own countries to make their depressed people feel good - if they can't reverse climate change they can at least **** Russia the evil oil seller for good_ and throw away the key.

Now it's time for sunk cost fallacy - after pouring billions can we walk away when the brave Ukranians are dying in heaps to clog the roads and keep Russian tanks from rolling in?

Did you see the segue into emotional blackmail weaved already into the above? Next will come the full real blackmail - the west thinks only they are smart to keep dossiers on elensly and his clique ? What do they think SBU has been doing at home and abroad with its network of expat blondes and oligarchs? We got Bio labs, money trails that show how billions pouring in are being sucked back like some perpetual motion machine? In case the western leaders have forgotten it's a lot harder to win elections at home than in ukra-een . A wrong revelation at the right time can make today's head of state join elensly on the footpath tomorrow. Some hints and some minor scandals will be thrown.

At this point the west will be convinced that ukra-een is past it's expiry date and toss it back into the Eurasian bin for the omnivore bear to clean up, and they will move on to may be China or may be it's better to first get some training and feel good back by meddling in south am or Africa....
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by dnivas »

For historical purposes, transcript of Putins speech on June 17 at the St Petersburg economic forum

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/68669

Only Modi and few other world leaders are at the same level in terms of eloquence and the amt of sheer content in a speech

Joe Brandon would be taking a break after 20 mins .
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

vijayk wrote:Is it possible Modi will mediate between Biden and Putin? Biden screwed up US economy, world economy and are staring at meltdown of entire world economy. Modi and Macron can help facilitate a dialogue between the two. Germany, UK burned all the bridges.
Modi did. He was the first and the only one to talk to both sides.

Of 193 nations, 30 have signed on to "sanctions". Of the remaining China, Brazil, and South Africa have openly sided with Russia or blamed NATO for the conflict. Recently so has the African Union. There is no nation out there - outside India - that can actually lay a claim - with a straight face - to perform this task.

As an aspiring pole in a multipolar new world order, India will be impacted by a butterfly flapping her wings in any corner of the globe - just the nature of the beast. IMO India has the moral position, but not the required heft.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

As expected:

The West’s unity over Ukraine could be starting to crack, just as Russia’s invasion gains ground

I expect a East/West European split - cold war borders recreated within EU/NATO

And, even perhaps, a US/whoever-in-Europe split.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

There could be more splits along other fault lines, catholic vs protestant vs orthodox, latin vs anglo-saxon, rich vs poor, north vs south.

The underpinning of EU is common European economic zone which offers inclusion in trade and commerce as an incentive to stay peaceful and the web of mutual interdependence is a guarantor against individual or grouped belligerence.

NATO was the sheild against external threats, and after the fall of Soviet Union, NATO went looking for an external threat and found the ideal Pakistan in ukra-een.

Europe's grave error was to become complicit in the Anglo-American plot to weaponise ukra-een. The price to pay will be EU itself whose fault lines were barely getting eclipsed by the web of interdependences, but all that's going to come undone.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Dilbu »

Putin’s stagflation revenge: Everyone said his war would destroy Russia’s economy but he’s killing America’s too
The invasion in February immediately scrambled the global economy and sent international markets spiraling into uncertainty. Some commodities have been especially volatile, including oil and food, due to constrained supply from Ukraine and Russia.

Responding to the invasion, Western powers unleashed a crippling series of sanctions on Russia’s economy. Hundreds of international companies have left the country, and Russia’s subsequent isolation led to a GDP loss of 3.5% there in the first quarter.

But even as Russia’s economy feels the pain, President Vladimir Putin continues to dictate global prices for energy and food. Western sanctions are starting to hurt the U.S. and the rest of the world too due to recent surges in energy prices that have caused factory shutdowns and slower growth across the U.S. and Europe, proving that Russia has more leverage than Western leaders thought.
Since the war began, a wave of Western sanctions has battered Russia’s economy, which preceded the departure of hundreds of foreign-owned enterprises and largely cut the country off from the global economy. But while sanctions have been brutal for average Russian citizen, with Russia’s inflation rate already at 20%, the country’s massive oil and gas sector continues to play a large role in global energy markets—and will probably continue to do so for some time.

The European Union has committed itself to reduce its reliance on Russian oil imports by 90% before year’s end. But the continent is still buying more than half of all Russian oil exports, and it might be a while before the West is able to completely wean itself from Russian fossil fuels.

And even if Europe is able to reduce its dependence on Russia, the country is still pursuing lucrative energy deals with China and India. Constrained global supply also means that oil prices will likely stay high, which will be a boon for Russian oil companies.
In the World Bank’s report, Malpass cautioned that the key to averting stagflation is to increase fuel production to reduce prices and help manage inflation. But with Putin seemingly ready to curtail gas flows and send costs soaring, keeping prices in check may be easier said than done.

Even if the invasion of Ukraine isn’t going as planned for him, Putin may still be reassured that the war is causing severe economic distress in the West.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Dilbu »

Ukraine war: British troops must prepare to fight in Europe once again, says new head of Army
British troops must prepare "to fight in Europe once again" as the war in Ukraine continues, the new head of the Army has warned. General Sir Patrick Sanders took over from General Sir Mark Carleton Smith on Monday and wrote to his charges about the challenges they face.
"Russia's invasion of Ukraine underlines our core purpose to protect the UK by being ready to fight and win wars on land," he said.

"There is now a burning imperative to forge an Army capable of fighting alongside our allies and defeating Russia in battle.

"We are the generation that must prepare the Army to fight in Europe once again."

He added that he is the first Chief of the General Staff since 1941 to take command of the Army "in the shadow of a land war in Europe involving a continental power".
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Lisa »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61864049

Russia blockading Ukrainian grain is a 'real war crime' - EU

Finally, EU admits that Famine in Bengal was a Real War Crime. Same thing tah?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »



Wonder how chinas crude is priced in Rouble/Yuan ?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

Lisa wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61864049

Russia blockading Ukrainian grain is a 'real war crime' - EU

Finally, EU admits that Famine in Bengal was a Real War Crime. Same thing tah?
Every thing that the western power's don't like becomes a war crime.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

UK's war mongering while expected, is at a scale that is remarkable. News and statements have made it clear that while the US was fronting the 2014 Maidan putsch and installing successive puppet govt, UK was heavily involved in sabotaging Minsk accords, and training 10s of thousands of Ukr troops to NATO standards and making them bellicose during the 8 years that followed. Some on this forum have suggested Brexit was an enabler to let UK do as it pleases and I find it at least plausible.

The question is why? Why does UK prefer to create a huge European crisis and still continues to war monger as evidenced by Gen Sander's speech above instead of live and let live with the EU? Brits seem to be the architects of the sanctions packages as well, their media has been the most rabidly anti Russia and most blindly pro-ukronazis.

Is it a clearly thought out decade long plan with the aim of realising the dream of a Putin-free under control Russia or is there something more to it?

Is it due to incompetent leadership that let itself remote controlled by the US or is it actually UK influencing US to go down this path?

UK's role and motivations need deeper examination. Could members having insights into the Brit world share some thoughts?
NRao
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Cyrano wrote: ...........

Is it a clearly thought out decade long plan with the aim of realising the dream of a Putin-free under control Russia or is there something more to it?

.........................
The US (UK is the 51st state) wants the $72 trillion worth of natural resources under "Russia" (need something to stabilize the $, after all). In 1990/91, they installed the "oligarchs" (who did what they were expected to do)(same with Ukraine too), and the result, in 2000, was Putin.

Now we have a new Latin phrase to learn, after status quo ante, we now have status quo ante bellum !!! Had to go to bellum to restore status quo ante.
vijayk
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vijayk »

Biden tries to climb down from Ukraine ledge
https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/biden-sta ... mic-ledge/
20 June 2022
President Joe Biden’s administration faces a double disaster after its Ukraine miscalculation, namely a US recession and a second strategic humiliation in the space of a year.

The US economy is almost certainly in recession, while oil prices drive inflation that has cut workers’ real pay by about 6% year on year.

Washington’s earlier boasts of driving Russian President Vladimir Putin from power, destroying Russia’s capacity to make war and halving the size of the Russian economy look ridiculous in retrospect.
China and India, which refused to join Group of Seven sanctions against Russia, reportedly are buying oil at a discount of $30 to $40 per barrel, while American and European consumers are paying the full price.

Energy prices have become the main driver of G7 inflation. Changes in the oil price lagged by one to four months explain 70% of the monthly change in the CPI, according to an Asia Times study. The sensitivity of the US Consumer Price Index to the oil price, moreover, was about twice as high during the February 2020 to May 2022 period than it had been during the preceding 15 years, the study shows.

US GDP contracted at a 1.9% annual rate during the first quarter. The surprise drop in May retail sales that was reported June 15 by the Commerce Department and the 14.4% month-on-month fall in US housing starts reported on June 16 point to a second quarter of contraction –
that is, a recession according to the standard criterion. That spells catastrophe for the Democrats in next November’s election.
The Biden administration vastly underestimated the inflationary impact of the $6 trillion Covid stimulus package, which began under Donald Trump’s administration but doubled under Biden.

It underestimated the resilience of the Russian economy and the capabilities of the Russian military.


Climbing down off this ledge won’t be easy. It may be impossible. Biden denounced Russia’s leader as a war criminal, averred that he couldn’t be allowed to remain in office and bragged that US sanctions would cut the Russian economy in half. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin claimed that the US would destroy Russia’s capacity to make war.

A compromise in Ukraine with significant territorial concessions to Russia – the only conceivable way to end the war – would humiliate Washington.
t Washington’s prompting, Zelensky rejected a February 19 proposal from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to avoid war. Michael Gordon reported on April 1 in The Wall Street Journal:

“Mr Scholz made one last push for a settlement between Moscow and Kyiv. He told Mr Zelensky in Munich on February 19 that Ukraine should renounce its NATO aspirations and declare neutrality as part of a wider European security deal between the West and Russia. The pact would be signed by Mr Putin and Mr Biden, who would jointly guarantee Ukraine’s security. Mr Zelensky said Mr Putin couldn’t be trusted to uphold such an agreement and that most Ukrainians wanted to join NATO.

The hapless Zelensky did not invent the idea of NATO membership for Ukraine. He was given assurances by Washington and London, which stepped up weapons deliveries to Ukraine.
The United States won’t tell Ukraine what to do, Undersecretary Kahl declared. But that doesn’t prevent other governments from making Zelensky an offer he can’t refuse. Zelensky adviser Oleksiy Arestovych told Germany’s Bild-Zeitung on June 16 that German Chancellor Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian President Mario Draghi might deliver such a demand to Zelensky during their current visit to Kiev.

The Zelensky aide said he feared that Scholz, Macron and Draghi “will try to get a Minsk III. They will say that we need to end the war that is causing food problems and economic problems, that Russians and Ukrainians are dying, that we need to save Mr Putin’s face, that the Russians made mistakes and that we need to forgive and give them a chance to return to world society.”
Deans
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Deans »

Lithuania's blockade (by land) of about half the goods going from Russia, to its enclave at Kaliningrad, is, in my view, dangerously provocative.
Russia's options are: To supply by sea. To threaten use of force if Lithuania violates an existing transport treaty. To use force. To retaliate in some other way.
Cyrano
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Time to check which state department officials visited Lithuania over the past couple of years and more recently.
UBanerjee
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by UBanerjee »

Deans wrote:Lithuania's blockade (by land) of about half the goods going from Russia, to its enclave at Kaliningrad, is, in my view, dangerously provocative.
Russia's options are: To supply by sea. To threaten use of force if Lithuania violates an existing transport treaty. To use force. To retaliate in some other way.
Russia hasn't taken a concrete step yet but their responses show that they are treating this as a fully hostile act and will probably respond accordingly.

The Lithuanian chargé d’affaires in Moscow was told that unless cargo transit was resumed in the near future, Russia reserves the right to act to protect its national interests.

The Russian foreign ministry said: ‘We consider provocative measures of the Lithuanian side which violate Lithuania’s international legal obligations, primarily the 2002 Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the European Union on transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the Russian Federation, to be openly hostile.’

Loyalist senator Andrey Klimov warned it was ‘direct aggression against Russia, literally forcing us to immediately resort to proper self-defence’. The head of the parliamentary sovereignty protection commission, he vowed that Russia would solve the blockade ‘in ANY way we choose’.

Any direct Russian attack on alliance member state Lithuania would be seen as an act of war against NATO and could spark a world war.

Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said of the Lithuanian blockade: ‘This decision is really unprecedented. It’s a violation of everything.’ He warned: ‘We consider this illegal. The situation is more than serious… we need a serious in-depth analysis in order to work out our response.’
Perhaps they should start by cutting Lithuania's electricity off.
UBanerjee
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by UBanerjee »

Also: treaties (such as the above mentioned 2002 Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the European Union on transit between the Kaliningrad region) mean nothing to the West at this point. Zilch. Nada. Nothing.
Rule of law is not just dead, it has been dismembered with an axe and the pieces set on fire.

Laws don't matter, only demokrazy and hyoomun rights. Treaties are pieces of paper to them and can be torn up at the slightest convenience. No deal can be expected to be honored. Total subservience (like occupied Germany & occupied Japan today) is what the US "masters of the universe" are concerned with. Remember Russia's 300 billion in sovereign funds seized, Venezuela's gold, Afghani's sovereign funds too (Afghans are now starving in record numbers because of no demokrazy and no hyoomun rights so US had to steal their funds).



The geopolitical fallout of this fact is, I feel, will only be slowly made apparent in the days and years to come; but it will be enormous. An unreliable and frankly psychotic Empire is not an entity which inspires a lot of confidence.
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