Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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Rakesh
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

This irony of this article. If it was not for the large scale loss of life in Ukraine, this would be hilarious.

Ukraine could partake in EU defense-cooperation projects after war ends
https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... -war-ends/
17 June 2022
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vijayk »

When The Lies Come Home
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... -come-home
18 June 2022
Finding an honest man today in Washington, D.C., is equally challenging. Diogenes would need a Xenon Searchlight in each hand.

Still, there are brief moments of clarity inside the Washington establishment. Having lied prolifically for months to the American public about the origins and conduct of the war in Ukraine, the media are now preparing the American, British, and other Western publics for Ukraine’s military collapse. It is long overdue.

The Western media did everything in its power to give the Ukrainian defense the appearance of far greater strength than it really possessed. Careful observers noted that the same video clips of Russian tanks under attack were shown repeatedly. Local counterattacks were reported as though they were operational maneuvers.

Russian errors were exaggerated out of all proportion to their significance. Russian losses and the true extent of Ukraine’s own losses were distorted, fabricated, or simply ignored. But conditions on the battlefield changed little over time. Once Ukrainian forces immobilized themselves in static defensive positions inside urban areas and the central Donbas, the Ukrainian position was hopeless. But this development was portrayed as failure by the Russians to gain “their objectives.”

Ground-combat forces that immobilize soldiers in prepared defenses will be identified, targeted, and destroyed from a distance. When persistent overhead intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets, whether manned or unmanned, are linked to precision guided-strike weapons or modern artillery systems informed by accurate targeting data, “holding ground” is fatal to any ground force. This is all the more true in Ukraine, because it was apparent from the first action that Moscow focused on the destruction of Ukrainian forces, not on the occupation of cities or the capture of Ukrainian territory west of the Dnieper River.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Behind paywall:

Germany makes ‘bitter’ decision to return to coal and Italy contemplates rationing as Russia cuts gas supplies to Europe
Italy may start rationing natural-gas consumption to certain industrial giants, after Russia’s Gazprom halved supplies on Friday.

On the weekend, the newspaper Corriere della Sera reported that the Italian government and energy industry would meet Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss the crisis, with the likely outcome being the introduction of a state of alert under the country’s gas emergency protocol.
More than economic impacts, I feel this will have more implications for the political relations among the 30 nations that have signed on to sanction Russia. After African Union Head Calls for Lifting of Sanctions on Russia, this slow tightening of screws will force political (and social) instability in individual European nations, that will impact the EU AND the leadership position of the US.

Also, this is what the right wingers in Russia wanted - so this has to be an indicator that they are "winning".

Finally, I think MOST of these events are not reversible - they are here to stay. Standards of living have been and will remain negatively impacted.

Germany, France, and Italy will slide. UK is gone. The rest, within Europe, will not really matter.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/sta ... 2653075456
Turkey is now considering leaving NATO.

This would have enormous ramifications on many levels.
Nothing new here. The news had been flogged in late May.

But, the thought of the second largest armed force within NATO leaving NATO is sobering.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by dnivas »

Scott ritter - June 20,2022 really lays into Ukraine. some pretty good nuggets.



some quick points
1. Start of war , assumption is 6:1 kill ration for RU vs Ukr, now likely 15/20 : 1
2. DRP head mentioned it St Petersburg, that conlict will go on at least till end of year; conflict will push past russian speaking regions until NATO infrastructure is destroyed; Zelensky will be tried as a war criminal
3. Ukr have asked 1000 pieces of artillery from US, which is about the extent of TOTAL US artillery. They have also asked for 500 MBT which is total England and France service strength.
4. in desert storm, US in total only fired 60K shells, RU is firing between 60K and 70K shells per day
5. defeat of Ukr could lead to potential end of NATO in the future.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by pravula »

How exactly will this work?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Deans »

pravula wrote:How exactly will this work?
It can't work. There's no such thing as a Russian oil price. Its an international oil price. If the volume of Russian oil is reduced, the price of oil
from all other sources increases, as supply is less than demand.
Some things, like insurance restrictions, have already been done.
Only Canada is mentioned as supporting US, because Canada is an oil exporter and gains billions from sanctions.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

pravula wrote:How exactly will this work?
Like many other things, they want everyone to follow what they say.

It will only cause more problems. The one thing that had nations not participating in sanctions very concerned was secondary sanctions, which was not implementable. So IMO, the fear is fading.

Here are two who are finally saying "how to say we goofed up without letting Putin off the hook?"



The accompanying article:

Why Ukraine Matters for the Left



However, they agree that the problem started in 1990.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chetak »

Remembered what Trump said and the bleddy germans laughed at him while he was saying it

now, the woke germans are up the creek without a paddle and damn the environment

Also, they have the worst foreign minister now that they have had the singular misfortune to have had in the many decades past

I miss trump. There was order in his chaos
Germany announces that it will restart coal-fired power plants in order to conserve natural gas
Image
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Manish_P »

chetak wrote:...
Germany announces that it will restart coal-fired power plants in order to conserve natural gas
Where is Greta the great?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chetak »

Manish_P wrote:
chetak wrote:...
Where is Greta the great?
she will not go against her own tribe, the hallmark of a professional survivor.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ldev »

WHAT THE INDIAN MILITARY WON’T LEARN FROM THE WAR IN UKRAINE
The war has also generated more pressing difficulties. The Indian military is currently focused on maintaining its Russian-made equipment in the face of supply shortages and Western sanctions. Within weeks of the war, the government postponed its showpiece Defense Expo, ostensibly due to “logistics problems being experienced by participants.” The Indian Air Force pulled out of previously planned multilateral air exercises in the United Kingdom and, more significantly, postponed its showpiece large-scale triennial air exercise involving around 150 aircraft, “due to the developing situation.” This occurred amidst reports that the air force was curtailing exercises and sorties to preserve the life of its airframes. And these precautions extend beyond Russian-origin platforms. In the first few months after the outbreak of the war, the military reportedly also curtailed flights of its American-made Chinook helicopters. That such orders were passed reflects not only the military’s uneasiness about potential Western sanctions but also their fears about Washington’s reliability.

India’s dependence on Russian weapons is also reflected in its careful diplomatic response to the war. One independent analysis suggests that Russian-origin platforms constitute almost “85 percent of major Indian weapons systems,” although Indian officials argue it is more likely to be between 60 to 70 percent. Differences in methodology and interpretation of indigenous production may explain the varying numbers, but they nonetheless reveal a high level of dependency. With the imposition of Western sanctions and mounting Russian hardware losses, there are growing fears of a slowdown of certain weapon programs. For instance, there are reports of anticipated delays in the production of T-90 tanks and AK-203 assault rifles, the provision of aircraft upgrades, and the supply of spares for submarines and helicopters. In April, the Indian government also cancelled the planned acquisition of 48 Mi-17 helicopters, although it rejected the accusation that this reflected Western pressure by claiming the decision was “taken much before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.” Similarly, in May India halted negotiations with Russia to acquire 10 Kamov Ka-31 airborne early-warning helicopters “due to concerns over Moscow’s ability to execute orders as well as issues related to payment transfers.” All of these developments indicate not only India’s growing concern with the availability and reliability of Russian equipment, but also, in light of sanctions on electronic goods like computer chips, its continued quality.

What’s more, even before the current conflict India’s weapons acquisitions were already held hostage to the complex dynamics of the bitter marriage, now surely a divorce, between the Ukrainian and Russian defense industries. The defense industry in Ukraine was built during the time of the Soviet Union and, upon its dissolution, continued to share a somewhat symbiotic relationship with that in Russia. As a result, India depended upon both countries to obtain spare parts for its legacy platforms, and even when making new acquisitions. After Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, India felt the adverse impact of this co-dependency and sought out creative solutions, while continuing its engagements with both countries. As recently as last year, the biggest exhibitor at the Aero India show was Ukraine, which had big plans to increase defense cooperation with New Delhi. As a result, the war has delayed, for the foreseeable future, the planned upgrade of India’s An-32 military transport aircraft and acquisition of Talwar-class frigates, which are built in Russia but powered by Ukrainian gas turbine engines
.
Like most militaries, India’s has no dedicated institution either at the joint headquarters or in the services with a mandate to study operational lessons from “other people’s wars.” For that reason, there is no office dedicated to and appropriately staffed for analyzing such wars. Despite this, the government gave explicit orders to the Indian military “to study the Russian offensive into Ukraine and draw tactical lessons.” But it is unclear who has been tasked to do so and whether they will have access to adequate data to draw appropriate lessons. This is exacerbated by the ongoing and unexplained lack of a chief of defense. As a result, the joint staff does not carry as much institutional weight as it should, making it difficult to undertake objective analysis of the war free from service-specific prisms. To be sure, the service headquarters and lower formations must be carrying out individual studies at various levels, but they have limited situational awareness, institutional independence, and ability to influence policy. Indeed, it would not be surprising if stories later emerge about how each of the services drew their own institutionally preferred “lessons” from this war.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Manish_P wrote: Where is Greta the great?
And, where are all the Peace Noble Laureates, led by President Obama?

And, where are all the economists, including Noble prize winners, who have kept quite when nations keep printing money by - literally - the Trillions of US Dollars?

Where are the equality brigades, led by Pure Blinken, when Germany, the pedigreed, kicks out Afghan refugees to make place for Ukrainian ones?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vijayk »

Patel brats :rotfl:

https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1539 ... e0uej8JA3Q --->
Sidhant Sibal
@sidhant

Flash: "Negotiations are underway to open Indian chain stores in Russia", says Russian President Putin at BRICS Business Forum

Image
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vimal »

Pani puri with Vodka shots will be an instant hit.
Wait then it would be Vodka puri
Last edited by vimal on 22 Jun 2022 21:46, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Sirjee, when you post tweets (especially pojitiv Indo-Russian events :mrgreen:) please post the link. Common courtesy.

The picture was also in the link, which I added.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

A big thank you to Zelensky for this favour :)

https://twitter.com/DesiEscobar07/statu ... cWLEQQYK6A ---> Oil Supplies to China and India growing Noticeably: President Putin at BRICS.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

Financial System:
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that banks from BRICS nations can freely connect to the System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), Russia’s alternative to SWIFT. SPFS has similar functionality to SWIFT and allows the transmission of messages between financial institutions in the same format. It was created by the Bank of Russia as an alternative to the Belgium-based system in 2014, when Moscow was hit with Western sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine. “The Russian system for transmitting financial messages is open to connecting banks from the five countries,” he said, adding: “The geography of the use of the Russian payment system Mir is expanding.” The Russian president also noted that work is underway to create an international reserve currency based on a basket of BRICS currencies.

In April, Russian Central Bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said most Russian lenders and 52 foreign organizations from 12 countries had received access to SPFS, and that the regulator would keep the identity of payment system members secret.

https://www.rt.com/business/557620-russ ... ger-brics/

Gas & Oil:
Germany, Austria, Italy and the Netherlands announced their plans to step-up use of coal for power generation, while Sweden and Denmark said they would also launch emergency measures to curb the use of natural gas.
https://www.rt.com/business/557599-euro ... n-gas-cut/
Last edited by bala on 23 Jun 2022 00:12, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Some of the best lines in this excellent article....

Shines a light on the pro-American crowd on BRF as well. A must read.

India’s Foreign Minister Schools Western Journalist
https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/i ... ournalist/
18 June 2022
Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jainshankar must be congratulated for being one of the rare political voices that dares to challenge Western media to its face and find the appropriate tone for doing so.
For Western journalists, even of Asian origin, it doesn’t matter how much you already know or even what you may be able to learn from a source sitting in front of you. What matters is your capacity to unfailingly repeat the mindset of your Western corporate and political masters.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ks_sachin »

Admiral thank you for the above. It was infuriating to watch her.
Then I was imagining Rahul Gandhi responding to those questions!!!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Russian FM Lavrov gave a Very Tough interview to a BBC journalist

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

Manish_P wrote:
chetak wrote:...
Where is Greta the great?
Where is the coal coming from? :mrgreen:
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chetak »

kit wrote:
Manish_P wrote: Where is Greta the great?
Where is the coal coming from? :mrgreen:

from their own backyard onlee

Germany holds 39,802 million tons (MMst) of proven coal reserves as of 2016, ranking 6th in the world and accounting for about 3% of the world's total coal reserves of 1,139,471 million tons (MMst). Germany has proven reserves equivalent to 154.6 times its annual consumption.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

chetak wrote:
kit wrote: Where is the coal coming from? :mrgreen:
from their own backyard onlee

Germany holds 39,802 million tons (MMst) of proven coal reserves as of 2016, ranking 6th in the world and accounting for about 3% of the world's total coal reserves of 1,139,471 million tons (MMst). Germany has proven reserves equivalent to 154.6 times its annual consumption.
Where are those global warming apostolates now? Not a pip squeak. Aren't the Greens part of coalition government :(( .. oh the hypocrisy of it all .. All those high ideals right out of the window when the penny pinches...oh wait ... its reserved for the Asians.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

In case you haven't noticed, global warming is not the burning issue now, it's climate change :rotfl:
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Manish_P »

ks_sachin wrote:Admiral thank you for the above. It was infuriating to watch her.
Then I was imagining Rahul Gandhi responding to those questions!!!
<OT>For RG wouldn't the set of questions be different (and the guide for the answers given in advance)

I always thought one possible opportunity lost for the BIF masters was that they didn't give SG a Nobel prize in the past decade. But then the BIF were always smart. They knew even then that the India of the future would not be awed by Nobels </OT>
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chetak »

NRao wrote:https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/sta ... 2653075456
Turkey is now considering leaving NATO.

This would have enormous ramifications on many levels.
Nothing new here. The news had been flogged in late May.

But, the thought of the second largest armed force within NATO leaving NATO is sobering.
Apart from some few technological benefits to turkey, none of their deeply felt expectations of being freely allowed to travel and work in the EU, UK and USA as well as non discrimination in societal contacts have been fulfilled by the goras who have under one pretext or another, subtly refused to admit them into their exclusive white man's club, not only to the benefits accruing to a NATO member but also entry into the gora domain and ecosystem.

NATO's main and only interest in turki was their incirlik air base

wisdom dawned on the jilted turkis after many decades of being shut out under one pretext or the other but basically their religion as well as their race have primarily shut almost all doors for them in the UK continent and the USA shores

their ottoman past has neither been forgotten nor forgiven by goras but the turkis are still under the great illusion that the imagined glories of their ottoman past places them a cut above everyone else, especially the goras.

this is the same khilafat movement or the caliphate movement nonsense over which the great stretcher bearer of the british empire got his striped drawers in a fearful twist and was very keen to drag the Hindus of India into supporting it
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Germany takes step closer to gas rationing
Emergency plan
Germany has now moved to the second stage of its three-part emergency plan, which is triggered when there is disruption or very high demand for gas.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »



The Jaishankar Doctrine



Why the old "British" empire is the "American" empire. just like when the capital of the Roman empire shifted from Constantinople to Rome.. the original British empire and the stolen wealth shifted to America.
Last edited by kit on 25 Jun 2022 21:36, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ldev »

98 ships mostly tankers owned by the Russian shipping company Sovcomflot have had their registrations transferred into the name of Sovcomflot's Dubai service management company, SCF Management Services (Dubai) Ltd. Certification that these ships now registered in Dubai are in good condition to enter ports is now being provided by the Indian membership of the International Association of Classification Societies so these Russian tankers are effectively now IR Class (Indian). This was done after such certification was withdrawn by Western Classification societies. The only non Western certification can be provided by China and India. Russia was never a member. But on their own these Russian vessels aggregate capacity to export Russian crude is a small percentage of overall Russian exports as the following chart indicates:

Image

The bulk of Russian crude exports are being done by Greece, an EU member, which vetoed an EU proposal to ban EU country vessels from carrying Russian crude. Only if Greece agrees and approves the EU ban will Russian crude exports be heavily impacted and the reason is that the combined Russian tanker fleet is far short of the capacity needed to sustain exports of Russian crude at present levels.

Insurance for these Russian tankers is being provided by Ingosstrakh, the Russian insurance company and re-insurance cover is being provided 100% by the Russian government re-insurance company RNRC whose capitalization has been increased by the Russian Central Bank. However re-insurance cover is being limited to $ 1 billion by RNRC, in comparison most Western reinsurers provide a cover of $3.1 billion per tanker. India has accredited Ingosstrakh as an insurance provider enabling Russian tankers carrying such insurance to enter Indian ports.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

kit wrote:
The Jaishankar Doctrine


Why the old "British" empire is the "American" empire. just like when the capital of the Roman empire shifted from Constantinople to Rome.. the original British empire and the stolen wealth shifted to America
"Jaishankar Doctrine" is Chavda coinage. Jaishankar himself uses "colonization", "looting" (since 2019), and more recently "US gun culture" to close any threads the US/UK open to change from India's preferred topic: "multipolar" and "new world order". He, as far as I know, has not nor is asking for any reparations. A lot to unpack, all that for a different thread.

________________________________________

Meanwhile (will other nations now get all these metals at reduced prices?):

U.S. to join Group of 7 in ban of new Russian gold imports to hit Putin

Image
A view of Krastsvetmet Precious Metals production facility in Krasnoyarsk, Russia on March 10. The Krasnoyarsk facility contributes to the country's economy as the only comprehensive facility that produces and processes gold and platinum group metals including, palladium, rhodium, iridium, ruthenium, and osmium. Krastsvetmet produces precious metals in the form of bars, granules, powders and chemical compounds, as well as jewelry and engineering products.
ALEXANDER MANZYUK/ANADOLU AGENCY VIA GETTY IMAGES
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

NRao wrote:
kit wrote:
The Jaishankar Doctrine


Why the old "British" empire is the "American" empire. just like when the capital of the Roman empire shifted from Constantinople to Rome.. the original British empire and the stolen wealth shifted to America
"Jaishankar Doctrine" is Chavda coinage. Jaishankar himself uses "colonization", "looting" (since 2019), and more recently "US gun culture" to close any threads the US/UK open to change from India's preferred topic: "multipolar" and "new world order". He, as far as I know, has not nor is asking for any reparations. A lot to unpack, all that for a different thread.

________________________________________

Meanwhile (will other nations now get all these metals at reduced prices?):

U.S. to join Group of 7 in ban of new Russian gold imports to hit Putin

Image
A view of Krastsvetmet Precious Metals production facility in Krasnoyarsk, Russia on March 10. The Krasnoyarsk facility contributes to the country's economy as the only comprehensive facility that produces and processes gold and platinum group metals including, palladium, rhodium, iridium, ruthenium, and osmium. Krastsvetmet produces precious metals in the form of bars, granules, powders and chemical compounds, as well as jewelry and engineering products.
ALEXANDER MANZYUK/ANADOLU AGENCY VIA GETTY IMAGES
Lol., India is the premier diamond reprocessing center in the world., this is definitely a boon for Indian merchants seeking to export jewellery., hope they put a marked up premium to that :mrgreen: Dont think western customers are going to stop using gold etc.. also palladium seriously ?.. almost every catalytic converter uses it ! ..
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

Explainer: Why Russia-Lithuania Tensions Are Rising
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 406777.cms
New tensions between Moscow and the West are rising after Lithuania decided to halt the transport of some goods through its territory to the Russian region of Kaliningrad as part of European Union sanctions on the Kremlin.

The Kremlin warns it will retaliate against the sanctions, stemming from its invasion of Ukraine, in a way that will have a "significant negative impact" on the Lithuanian people, raising fears of a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.

Here’s a look at why tensions are rising over Kaliningrad, a part of Russia on the Baltic Sea that is separated from the rest of the country:

Russia's westernmost territory

The Kaliningrad region once was part of the German province of East Prussia, which was taken over by the Soviet Union after World War II in line with the 1945 Potsdam agreement among the Allied powers. East Prussia's capital of Konigsberg was renamed Kaliningrad, for Mikhail Kalinin, a Bolshevik leader.

An estimated 2 million Germans fled the territory in the final months of World War II, and those who stayed were forcibly expelled after hostilities ended.

The Soviet authorities developed Kaliningrad as a major ice-free port and a key center of fishing, encouraging people from other regions to move into the territory. Since the Cold War era, Kaliningrad also has served as a major base of Russia's Baltic fleet.

But since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the independence of the Baltic countries, Kaliningrad finds itself separated from the rest of Russia by Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia — now all NATO members. To the south is Poland, another NATO member.

Military bastion

As Russia's relations with the West have soured, Kaliningrad's military role has grown. Its location has put it at the forefront of Moscow's efforts to counter what it described as NATO's hostile policies.

The Kremlin has methodically bolstered its military forces there, arming them with state-of-the-art weapons, including precision-guided Iskander missiles and an array of air defense systems.
As the region's military significance has grown, its dependence on goods coming through Poland and Lithuania has made it particularly vulnerable.

Transit halted

Lithuania emphasized that the ban on the movement of sanctioned goods was part of the fourth package of EU sanctions against Russia, noting it only applies to steel and ferrous metals starting on June 17.

The government in Vilnius rejected Russia's description of the move as a blockade, stressing that unsanctioned goods and rail passengers can still move through Lithuania.

In line with the EU decision, coal will be banned in August, and shipments of oil and oil products will be halted in December.

Moscow mulls a response

Moscow formally protested the halt of shipments to Kaliningrad as a violation of Russia-EU agreements on free transit of goods to the region.

Kaliningrad Gov. Anton Alikhanov said the ban will affect up to half of all items brought into the region, including cement and other construction materials.

Nikolai Patrushev, the powerful secretary of Russia's Security Council and a close confidant of President Vladimir Putin, visited Kaliningrad on Tuesday to meet with local officials. He described the restrictions as "hostile actions" and warned that Moscow will respond with unspecified measures that "will have a significant negative impact on the population of Lithuania."

Patrushev didn't elaborate, but Alikhanov suggested the Russian response could include shutting the flow of cargo via the ports of Lithuania and other Baltic nations.

However, Lithuania has significantly reduced its economic and energy dependence on Russia, recently becoming the first EU country to stop using Russian gas. It no longer imports Russian oil and has suspended imports of Russian electricity. The transport of most Russian transit via Lithuanian ports already has been halted under EU sanctions, but Moscow could move to restrict transit for cargo from third countries through Lithuania.

Putin will decide Russia's respond after receiving Patrushev's report.

Russia's standoff with Lithuania is part of their rocky relationship dating back to Moscow's annexation of the country, along with Estonia and Latvia, in 1940. The three pressed their move toward independence under former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and regained it when the USSR collapsed in 1991.

Fears of escalation

Some in the West have long feared that Russia could be eyeing military action to secure a land corridor between its ally Belarus and the Kaliningrad region via the so-called Suwalki Gap, a 65-kilometer strip of land in Poland along the border with Lithuania.

The rhetoric on Russian state TV has risen to a high pitch, with commentator Vladimir Solovyov accusing the West of brinkmanship that has set the clock ticking toward World War III.

Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas warned Wednesday of the danger of Russian provocations amid the Kaliningrad tensions. "When you have a military force and they are ruled by the half-witted — I apologize for the expression — of course you can expect everything," he said, adding that Lithuania feels confident and relies on its NATO allies.

With the bulk of Russia's military bogged down in Ukraine, any use of force in the Baltics could be beyond Moscow's conventional weapons capability.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said she doesn't think there is a military threat to Lithuania, adding that Russia was trying to raise pressure on the EU to ease the sanctions.

"Russia is very good in playing on our fears so that we would, you know, step back from our decisions," Kallas said in an interview with The Associated Press.

A Russian attempt to use force against Poland or Lithuania would trigger a direct conflict with NATO, which is obliged to protect any of its members under its charter's mutual defense clause known as Article 5.

On Tuesday, U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price emphasized Washington's "ironclad" commitment to that clause, which he described as NATO's "bedrock" principle.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov responded by warning the EU and NATO against "dangerous rhetorical games" over Kaliningrad. "Certain influential and powerful forces in the West are doing all they can to further exacerbate tensions in relations with Russia," he said, adding that "some simply have no limits in inventing scenarios when a military confrontation with us would look inevitable."
IndraD
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

European officials scramble to douse Kaliningrad tensions
https://www.politico.eu/article/europe- ... lithuania/

looks like West is probing if Russia will escalate or not on Kaliningrad blockade
Officials and diplomats told POLITICO’s Brussels Playbook the crisis is an unintended consequence of the EU’s fourth sanctions package, under which the bloc banned imports from Russia of steel and ferrous materials. The train line supplying goods from Russia to Kaliningrad passes through Lithuania, an EU country, so customs agents have from Saturday been stopping freight trains for checks.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Bart S »

IndraD wrote:Explainer: Why Russia-Lithuania Tensions Are Rising
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 406777.cms
The article, while quite verbose, doesn't really provide the answer to the question raised in the headline. In a nutshell, the reason is that Lithuania is apparently the US State Department's rabid proxy in Europe due to which it is taking an extremist line and carrying out such sabotage/hitjobs (much like the very evil Qatar+Muslim Brotherhood in the Middle East).
kit
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

Bart S wrote:
IndraD wrote:Explainer: Why Russia-Lithuania Tensions Are Rising
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 406777.cms
The article, while quite verbose, doesn't really provide the answer to the question raised in the headline. In a nutshell, the reason is that Lithuania is apparently the US State Department's rabid proxy in Europe due to which it is taking an extremist line and carrying out such sabotage/hitjobs (much like the very evil Qatar+Muslim Brotherhood in the Middle East).

can say first hand., Lithuania lives on European aid., protected by Canadian NATO who rotates every month.. their sense of entitlement is huge., motto seems to be "we suffered under Russia/USSR"., ( not to mention we have literally nothing else .. so all drama political mainly .. poking at China , Russia etc or anyone else if payment is right
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Dilbu »

Sounds like another TSPish MuNNA who lives on bheek or blackmail. Give money or we will spread radiation and commit soosai onree..
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

:shock:

And, I thought Elensky was a nut.

Britain. War. With. Russia. Hmmmmmm.....

The title says it all.

Britain must be prepared to go to war with Russia

By: CON COUGHLIN
DEFENCE EDITOR

Logic 101: Putin got his teeth knocked out, so he will invade Europe.
After the terrible drubbing the Russian military has suffered during the Ukraine conflict, Western leaders might be forgiven for concluding that Vladimir Putin no longer has the ability to threaten his European neighbours....
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Why the west risks condemning Ukraine to slow strangulation
Before war fatigue sets in further, a rethink needed to avoid a years-long conflict
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