Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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Roop
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Roop »

Tanaji wrote:In other words Lloyds is concerned that it’s hegemony as the maritime insurer is under threat…
Exactly. Lloyd's is smart enough to learn the lessons of SWIFT.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Y. Kanan »

drnayar wrote:
Pratyush wrote:During the early days of this SMO i had gotten into an argument with some Ukrainian supporter online.

I told that clown, that if Ukraine is dependent on the support of outsiders to hold the ground against Russia. Then it's cause is lost. Because it's success will be dependent on the ability and willingness of outsiders to support it.

Unless the last few months have been the most elaborate information warfare operation. It's clear that the west has reached the limit of what it can do for Ukraine.

It's not going to end well for the them.
A good idea would be to look at how uk is reacting...right now they have tested a universal alarm system for the entire population. More likely the west will push the threshold
I've said it many times since the war began, and I'll say it again: this war will end in a "limited" nuclear exchange, and this is by design.

The western elites have wanted a nuclear exchange from the start. In the aftermath they can implement their Great Reset, silence all domestic opposition permanently, and have an excuse to unleash a much more aggressive, exploitative foreign policy without the need for diplomatic cover. They can turn around their fortunes and amass more power than ever.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Aditya_V »

Well that is stupid, we do not what consequences can happen, a limited nuke exchange can well open a hole in the Ozone layer around western Europe or North America.

You cannot predict certain things, I hope nobody is foolish enough to take things to that point.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by JE Menon »

>>IIRC JEM posted some time ago that he had met Alexander and they had a good discussion.

To be clear, I did meet Alex Christoforou by coincidence, when we were in the same city. We had a brief discussion, very brief. Net net we have a strong convergence of views. The Duran is today one of the most popular Youtube channels commenting on the Ukraine situation, as well as other geopolitical situations. It has around 350K subscribers, which is pretty intense for a channel that discusses only geopolitics and consists of just two people - both of Greek ethnicity. Alex C is Greek Cypriot and Alexander M is a Greek-origin gent based in London.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... r-30160464

This has to be the statement of the year… ulta chor and all that
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vijayk »

Aditya_V wrote:Well that is stupid, we do not what consequences can happen, a limited nuke exchange can well open a hole in the Ozone layer around western Europe or North America.

You cannot predict certain things, I hope nobody is foolish enough to take things to that point.
Well ... Look at the neocon garbage like Nuland. They will do in second
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Russia 'buying back' arms parts exported to Myanmar and India
TOKYO -- Russia is suspected of buying back military supplies previously shipped to Myanmar and India, according to a Nikkei analysis of customs clearance data.

The survey found records of Russian repurchases of parts for tanks and missiles that had been exported to Myanmar and India. Russia may be reimporting the components to improve older weapons destined for use in Ukraine, relying on help from countries with which it has long-standing military ties.

The U.S., European nations and Japan have banned exports of goods with potential military use to Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022.

Nikkei analyzed customs clearance data on shipments to Russia made available by ImportGenius, an American research specialist, Exim Trade Data of India and other sources, examining records on Russia's imports of parts for weapons such as tanks and missiles.

UralVagonZavod, which manufactures tanks for the Russian military, for example, imported military products from the Myanmar army for $24 million on Dec. 9, 2022. The components were registered as having been made by UralVagonZavod.

The harmonized system (HS) codes for the reimported goods suggest the company repurchased 6,775 sighting telescopes and 200 cameras for installation in tanks. They are "probably optical devices to measure distance to targets and zero in on them," said Nobuyuki Akatani, a retired senior officer from the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force who was involved in developing tanks.

Russia has an inventory of around 5,000 tanks, according to the 2023 edition of "The Military Balance," an annual report published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a British think tank.

"Russia has a lot of old T-72s [tanks] in storage that are in need of modernization and could be sent to the front line afterwards," said Oleg Ignatov, a Russia analyst with the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank. "I can add that optics is a big problem for the Russian military-industrial complex. It's plausible that they are trying to get optics this way."

Russia has lost a lot of equipment, including this T-72 tank, in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began in February last year. © Reuters
Russia, which previously relied on Western technology to produce optical equipment, according to past trade data, appears to be struggling to procure the necessary components as a result of the trade sanctions.

Nikkei asked UralVagonZavod, the Russian government and the Defense Ministry of Myanmar's military regime to provide details on the Russian company's repurchase of military products, but received no replies as of publication.

Reference to "imported under reclamation act" was found in the customs clearance data. UralVagonZavod exported military products to the Myanmar army in 2019; the reference suggests the returned items were defective. But according to Kinichi Nishimura, a military analyst who previously served at Japan's Ministry of Defense, "Any defective products should have been replaced when discovered in a full inspection conducted at the time of import."

Other analysts agree: "For a warranty return, this would, as far as I know, be an unusual quantity," said Jakub Janovsky of Oryx, a Dutch defense intelligence analysis website.

The Russian NPK KBM, the Russian initials for the Machine-Building Design Bureau, which is tasked with missile production, purchased a total of six components for night-vision sight for ground-to-air missiles for $150,000 from the Indian Ministry of Defense in August and November 2022. All of the parts, which are needed to ensure the missiles can perform at night and in low light, were manufactured by the KBM, which exported the same type of parts to India in February 2013.

Russia may have reimported the parts for repairs, but there were no records of the items being sent back to India as of the end of March this year. Neither the KBM nor the Indian ministry responded to Nikkei's request for comment.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia is the world's third-largest exporter of weapons, with India its biggest customer, alone accounting for 35% of Russia's overseas arms shipments over the past decade.

SIPRI bases its findings on its proprietary trend-indicator value (TIV), which takes into account such factors as the volume of trade, manufacturing costs and capabilities of weapons. India is followed as a purchaser of Russian arms by China, at 15% of total exports, and Algeria at 10%. Buybacks of exported equipment make it possible to upgrade older weapons in Russia's arsenal and send them into battle.

The Group of Seven leaders, at their summit in Hiroshima, Japan, last month asked other countries to end military support for Russia. But "it is difficult to gain cooperation from countries that rely on Russian-made weapons," said Nobumasa Akiyama, a professor who studies arms control at Hitotsubashi University in Tokyo.

Efforts to stanch the flow of military equipment to Russia, and from there to the front lines in Ukraine, require tough measures such as setting up means of disclosing deals with Russia.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by sanman »

Tanaji wrote:In other words Lloyds is concerned that it’s hegemony as the maritime insurer is under threat…

This war has accelerated the erosion of US hegemony and onset of multi-polarity, and led to all kinds of unforeseen consequences. Look at this:



Washington elites pushed their Ukraine war on Russia, which pushed Moscow into the arms of Beijing, which ensured a cheap/abundant supply of Russian oil to China, which gave China an opening to broker a Saudi-Iran peace deal, so that Saudi is no longer beholden to the United States and can cut back on oil production to hike oil prices whenever it wants. Washington elites (Neocons, whatever) have shot their country in the foot. Myopic fools - corruption leads to its own demise.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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Tanaji
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 023-06-07/

US carriers are complaining that Air India being allowed to over fly Russian airspace but not then provides an unfair advantage to air India. Further pushing for a ban on such carriers from landing in US.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by drnayar »

Tanaji wrote:https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 023-06-07/

US carriers are complaining that Air India being allowed to over fly Russian airspace but not then provides an unfair advantage to air India. Further pushing for a ban on such carriers from landing in US.
That's their problem .. complain to their govt for subsidies etc.. pretty sure unkle s printing press working well
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

Slowly the truth comes out:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... -pentagon/

West knew of plans to take out the pipeline 2 months in advance
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Tanaji wrote:Slowly the truth comes out:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... -pentagon/
West knew of plans to take out the pipeline 2 months in advance
Naah ! Lies and more lies. Ukr has no competences or capacity to do such an operation in the Baltic Sea. IMO this is a fabricated leak to blame Ukraine, what are friends for eh ?!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Manas »

Cyrano wrote:
Tanaji wrote: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... -pentagon/
West knew of plans to take out the pipeline 2 months in advance
Naah ! Lies and more lies. Ukr has no competences or capacity to do such an operation in the Baltic Sea. IMO this is a fabricated leak to blame Ukraine, what are friends for eh ?!
Whoever did this committed an act of war against Russia and potentially Germany. The Russians would reserve the right to retaliate. However, if this act is "blamed" on Ukraine that is already at war with Russia - it is part of the asymmetric tactics of retaliation, counter retaliation. Throwing Ukraine under the bus in this scenario does no additional damage, harm to the Ukranians than they are already suffering due to the Russian "SMO".

Why would the U.S. + U.K. intelligence/special operations combine (the most likely culprits) claim/fix responsibility on themselves and admit to an act of war against a major nuclear power that they are NOT at war with "technically"
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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vijayk
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vijayk »

Germany: Far-right overtakes Scholz’s SPD in new poll
What is Far-right?

Anyone who believes LGBTQIA+ is little too much and don't chop off genitals of 4 year old
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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vijayk
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vijayk »

https://archive.ph/ASTCm
An Unwinnable War: Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine
By Samuel Charap
June 5, 2023
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

India refiners start yuan payments for Russian oil imports

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 023-07-03/
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Oops :rotfl:

US and UK call for more gratitude from Kyiv after Zelenskiy’s Nato complaint
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... are_btn_tw
12 July 2023
Comments come after Ukrainian leader complained his country had not been given firm timetable for joining alliance.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by drnayar »

Rakesh wrote: 13 Jul 2023 18:53 Oops :rotfl:

US and UK call for more gratitude from Kyiv after Zelenskiy’s Nato complaint
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... are_btn_tw
12 July 2023
Comments come after Ukrainian leader complained his country had not been given firm timetable for joining alliance.
like the proverbial camel trying to get into the Arabs tent

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

A FRAUGHT MEETING IN VILNIUS

Despite Biden’s best efforts to put a happy face on it, Vilnius will be remembered as the NATO Summit where tensions boiled over. Zelensky denounced the Alliance’s admission policy as “absurd” and disrespectful. UK Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace chastised Zelensky for ingratitude. Lindsey Graham attacked the Biden administration for weakness. Ben Hodges criticized Jake Sullivan for lack of “strategic bravery.” Even NAFO mascot Adam Kinzinger no longer appears to be a “fella.” The optics were even harsher than the words, with the NATO elites turning their backs on a frustrated Zelensky. Biden’s assurance that Zelensky is “stuck” with the U.S. may come as cold comfort to both nations now that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed to meet expectations, huge amounts of expensive Western armor lay in ruins smoldering on the battlefield, Ukrainian casualties are horrific, and the U.S. has run out of 155mm artillery shells to give, forcing America to debase itself by sending cluster bombs. The war effort is increasingly a shambles and the War Party is starting to turn on each other. https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1 ... 92320?s=20
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Can India be decoupled from Russia?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/0 ... st-allies/
12 July 2023

Original title of the article is below :mrgreen: Axil of Evil :lol: :roll:

https://twitter.com/pattaazhy/status/16 ... 66337?s=20 ---> Short story on western media skulduggery when it comes to India.

Image

Image
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

Given the transfers of long ranged weapons such as Storm Shadow and F16, its only a matter of time if not done already Ukraine gets even longer ranged weapons as wink wink nod type of transfer, MTCR not withstanding.

I wonder how US will react if Russia starts providing guidance technology for long range missiles to NoKo or Iran.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by V_Raman »

Iran vs Ukraine is not apples to apples - No real threat of war vs ongoing war.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by S_Madhukar »

:mrgreen: Just watched the new MI movie… CIA AI gone rogue sinks Akula unsurprisingly called Sevastopol by mistake… hmmm…I wonder what all scripts are going to come to life … :(( Just like Ethan Hunt is perpetually chasing shadows it seems this time the MIC has multiple scripts on hand …
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... er-beijing
kissinger in China Asks Nato to accept loss of territory
Surge of articles in UK Europe asking for division of Ukraine and let it be
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by YashG »

It is very interesting to see how western companies are eager to get involved in Ukraine's reconstruction and look forward to this economic opportunity. But numbers dont add up -
  • worldbank says it estimates cost of ukraine's reconstruction cost = 411 UDS Bn.
    • This is before odessa port was destroyed and another year of war will destroy more. But lets take 411.
    • Ukraine's economy in 2022 was 150 Bn USD and it will shrink further this year (quarter 1 was -10%); So it will be 135 Bn USD in 2023 - Rosy picture, will likely shrink more.
    • Ukraine's 8mn migrants are pumping remittances home + donations + aid from abroad means atleast 20- 30Bn USD. This will disappear once war ends.
    • So we're looking at a 110bn USD economy in 2024.
    • In 2022, Ukrained debt to GDP was 60%.
    • If reconstruction cost is financed via loans, it would mean roughly 430% of debt-to-gdp ratio! No country in the world has that ability to survive as a nation with that kind of debt. Even China or US or Japan on the back of their string economies have 300% of debt.
    • It is important to have the debt servicing capability. Worldbank offers loans at 3% Japan can do that at even 1%.
    • Unless Ukraine is not rebuilt to a sufficient level it will have no debt re-servicing capability. At some point of time, west will have to know what investment (x bn USD) will ensure Ukraine has capability to regrow and service debt.
    • If that X is as high as 300/400 Bn USD. You will need a china or india like economy to do that. Ukraine is not that
    • Instead if financial institutions lent the same to growing economies in Africa or Asia, they will have a better chance.
    • So much of this helping ukraine plan is just fairytale
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Roop »

"Biden and Putin are ready to do a deal"

I think this video is worth a look/listen, because it could very well be true. If you watch it, you can decide for yourself how much you want to believe it. I think what he says here is not unreasonable or intrinsically ridiculous, as opposed to what the majority of Western propaganda media say.

The guy (Edward Luttwak) is probably retired now (I assume) but at one time he was pretty powerful and influential in Republican circles. In summary, what he says is:
  • Americans (Biden & others) are now convinced that Xi Jin Ping is a serious megalomaniac is definitely going to initiate war soon.
  • America and allies/friends can fight China if it is by itself (or with pipsqueak friends like Pakistan / NK), but not if Russia is with China.
  • We (America & Co.) have to find a way to settle the Ukr war that is acceptable to Russia and America (Ukr will simply be told to shut up and do as it's told).
  • Once the Ukr front is settled to Russia's satisfaction, it can be bargained with to stay out of any war between China and America.
  • The way to achieve this goal (i.e. settling the Ukr war in a manner that Russia will accept) is already under way, in the advance stages of planning/negotiation with Rus.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

In a logical world, this would have been the approach of the USA from 2017-18 onwards.

But we know that the US deep state was not interested in peace with Russia.

Today the Russian war aims are not limited to just conquering Ukraine. Through Ukraine, they aim to dismantle the post 91 European security architecture itself.

That means a dismantling of NATO.

That is going to substantially weaken the USA at a global stage.

What EL is saying is logical. But the aims of the two sides CANNOT be achieved on the negotiating table.

Ukraine has to be defeated by the Russians and brought under thumb of the Russians.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by sanman »

Turkey's Erdogan doing yet another flip-flop on NATO membership for Sweden?

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by JE Menon »

https://twitter.com/jai_menon/status/16 ... 07840?s=20 (Twitter link)

I've written an article in Swarajya on the general state of play...on Ukraine

https://swarajyamag.com/world/nato-and- ... -look-away
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by nandakumar »

JE Menon wrote: 23 Jul 2023 00:45 https://twitter.com/jai_menon/status/16 ... 07840?s=20 (Twitter link)

I've written an article in Swarajya on the general state of play...on Ukraine

https://swarajyamag.com/world/nato-and- ... -look-away
Brilliant J.E. Menon! Take a bow. Thoroughly enjoyed reading it.
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