Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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IndraD
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

‘Little fissures’: The U.S.-Ukraine war unity is slowly cracking apart
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/1 ... s-00086654
based on conversations with 10 officials, lawmakers and experts, new points of tension are emerging: The sabotage of a natural gas pipeline on the floor of the Atlantic Ocean; the brutal, draining defense of a strategically unimportant Ukrainian city; and a plan to fight for a region where Russian forces have been entrenched for nearly a decade.
Multiple administration officials have begun worrying that Ukraine is expending so much manpower and ammunition in Bakhmut that it could sap their ability to mount a major counteroffensive in the spring.
Kyiv, for now, has ignored Washington’s input. :shock: :shock:
There has also been, at times, frustration about Washington’s delivery of weapons to Ukraine. The United States has, by far, sent the most weapons and equipment to the front, but Kyiv has always looked ahead for the next set of supplies. Though most in the administration have been understanding about Kyiv’s desperation to defend itself, there have been grumblings about the constant requests and, at times, Zelenskyy not showing appropriate gratitude, according to two White House officials not authorized to speak publicly about private conversations.
Moreover, the Pentagon has consistently expressed doubts whether Ukraine’s forces — despite being armed with sophisticated Western weapons — would be able to dislodge Russia from Crimea, where it has been entrenched for nearly a decade.
For now, Biden continued to stick to his refrain that the United States will leave all decisions about war and peace to Zelenskky. But whispers have begun across Washington as to how tenable that will be as the war grinds on — and another presidential election looms.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by williams »

yensoy wrote:
vijayk wrote:Actually this why India also can't abolish FCRA. They have to keep cutting it down slowly and systematically.
The only way to make the point is to set up an India AID organization to operate in the US and Euro area to provide humanitarian aid to the many poor and deserving who have fallen through the cracks. We may not have the money but we have the will and people to render assistance 8) Of course US/Euro will not give visas to volunteers wanting to serve the poor, and that can be used as tit-for-tat.
You can run 501(c)(3) corporations in the US and receive foreign contributions tax-free already. The difference is such laws can be enforced quickly without prejudice in the US but we cannot say the same in India. What is the need of the hour is to clean up our judicial system to enforce the laws that are already written without too much drama and in a timely manner. Our judicial system is a big black hole that needs to be fixed quickly if we need to act as a Pole in the world.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vimal »

williams wrote:
yensoy wrote: The only way to make the point is to set up an India AID organization to operate in the US and Euro area to provide humanitarian aid to the many poor and deserving who have fallen through the cracks. We may not have the money but we have the will and people to render assistance 8) Of course US/Euro will not give visas to volunteers wanting to serve the poor, and that can be used as tit-for-tat.
You can run 501(c)(3) corporations in the US and receive foreign contributions tax-free already. The difference is such laws can be enforced quickly without prejudice in the US but we cannot say the same in India. What is the need of the hour is to clean up our judicial system to enforce the laws that are already written without too much drama and in a timely manner. Our judicial system is a big black hole that needs to be fixed quickly if we need to act as a Pole in the world.
williams sir hit the nail on the head. India needs laws but even more than that; implementation of those by all the institutions. Judiciary is pretty much a Commie-Congi mouthpiece and must be dismantled to serve the people.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by yensoy »

Actually the 501(c) charity became a very difficult thing to set up after 9/11.

I am not talking about a "private" charity or NGO. I am talking about a governmental aid agency that provides aid to the western world, headquartered in India.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

India’s rampaging rise threatens to tip world’s fragile balance of power
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... nce-power/
12 March 2023
US and its allies need a China bulwark, but Modi's ‘unbreakable’ friendship with Putin complicates an alliance.
https://twitter.com/Mel3366/status/1634 ... 77792?s=20 --->

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

China's Xi plans Russia visit as soon as next week - sources https://www.reuters.com/world/chinas-xi ... 023-03-13/
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

Sanctions on Russian oil supplies lead to the expansion of shadow and unregulated maritime transport involving more than 400 tankers,
It remains a mystery who owns this fleet and who carries out transportation. about 440 tankers with a total tonnage of more than 30,000 tons with an average age of 20 years are used exclusively for the transportation of Iranian, Venezuelan and Russian oil.

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence ... -transport
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

^^^^^

Mystery because most are Greek tankers whose destination is EU.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by gakakkad »

IndraD wrote:Sanctions on Russian oil supplies lead to the expansion of shadow and unregulated maritime transport involving more than 400 tankers,
It remains a mystery who owns this fleet and who carries out transportation. about 440 tankers with a total tonnage of more than 30,000 tons with an average age of 20 years are used exclusively for the transportation of Iranian, Venezuelan and Russian oil.

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence ... -transport
can u post full article if you have access ?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Avid »

gakakkad wrote:
IndraD wrote:Sanctions on Russian oil supplies lead to the expansion of shadow and unregulated maritime transport involving more than 400 tankers,
It remains a mystery who owns this fleet and who carries out transportation. about 440 tankers with a total tonnage of more than 30,000 tons with an average age of 20 years are used exclusively for the transportation of Iranian, Venezuelan and Russian oil.

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence ... -transport
can u post full article if you have access ?

https://archive.is/2023.03.10-175744/ht ... -transport
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vijayk »

Image
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ricky_v »

Sy Hersh had a press conference today, talked about nord stream, biden, olaf's tiny nuts
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

For joke onlee :)

https://twitter.com/Trollstoy88/status/ ... 00004?s=20 --> After "half of the world" sanctioned Russia, not even one Russian national bank has defaulted.

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »


record inflation batters Poland
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

ICC issues war crime arrest warrant for Putin
The International Criminal Court announced Friday it has issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and an official at the center of an alleged scheme to forcibly deport thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia.
Russia is not a member of the ICC and the court doesn't conduct trials in absentia, so any charged officials would either have to be handed over by Moscow or arrested outside of Russia to face ICC proceedings.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

ICC warrant is to find a devious way to restrict Putin's visits to neutral/friendly countries which recognise ICC. A lot of them in south America and Africa. Because if Putin does, then the west will put tremendous pressure on the host country. In doing so, the west has attacked another of its own institutions. Woke west is short sighted beyond belief.

Image
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... es.svg.png

Yellow and red countries are not currently signatories. Funnily, Ukraine is a signatory but hasn't ratified the Rome statute on which ICC was created. Logic and reason never stopped the Kiev regime.

India is not a signatory and we wont care what ICC does on this matter.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

Biden to host state dinner for Modi https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... his-summer
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ShauryaT »

Self Deleted.
Last edited by ShauryaT on 18 Mar 2023 22:48, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kancha »

Shared some thoughts on the Ukraine War

Blog Link: Ukraine War - One Year On

Twitter Link
Btw, the above visuals are from the 2003 invasion of Iraq by the great US of A and Even Greater Britain, plus a host of other ‘willing’ partners. Interestingly, next week will mark two decades of that invasion on an utterly false premise, for which the culprits didn’t face ANY sanctions whatsoever! Neither were any warrants issued by any International Courts against the chief perpetrators, as in the case of Vladimir Putin some hours back!

Instead, the victim country was destroyed to the extent that they are still struggling to stand up.

Btw, the same culprits are today collectively united in their ‘horror’ at the invasion of Ukraine by Russia!

So we know why the USA and others invaded and destroyed Iraq. They had irrefutable proof that Iraq had WMDs!
Throughout our history, war has been a constant. So those that are aghast at yet another war, are merely trying to imagine a utopic world which has never existed. Instead, this cacophony of voices on social as well as mainstream media is, IMO, due to the fact that the collective West sees it as an opportunity to get an advantage over Russia.

It is no secret that Russia has been one of their Principal adversaries. So much so that at the end of the cold-war, instead of reaching out to co-opt broken and hugely malleable Russia as a fellow traveller in the world order, they decided to push the knife deeper.

With the disintegration of the USSR, instead of scaling down NATO (and actually promising to do so), it instead galloped closer and closer to Russia, with newer and newer members. The Georgia War of 2009(?) was one Russian reaction that should have told them that NATO was getting too close to Russian borders for their own comfort.

Of course, I am aware NATO is a voluntary organisation and any country has the right to aspire to become a member of the organisation.

But by the same logic, a country that is the exclusive target of an ever-expanding and an ever-closing military alliance to has the right to feel concerned and consequently, secure its own interests, no?
The war started not on 24th Feb 2022, but instead in 2014 when a democratically elected govt in Ukraine was toppled with the help of Maidan protests and replaced by one that was decidedly Anti-Russia and Anti Ethnic Russians in their own country. This resulted in the Russian invasion of Donbas in Aug 2014, followed by the Minsk Agreement in Sep 2014. However, it broke and Minsk 2 Agreement was signed in Feb 2015.
Coming over to the military operations, thanks to their experiences in Chechnya and Georgia, as also Donbas, it is fair to assume that the Russians miscalculated the time required to achieve their military aims.

In addition, by delaying the launch till end of winter olympics in China, the snows thawed out & cross-country movement became much more difficult for their military vehicles.

But most importantly, they miscalculated the amount of military support the West would give Ukraine!

It pretty soon turned from a ‘Special Military Operation’, to an existential war for Russia. They took some time to recalibrate their actions. But the West took it as a sign of collapse and were V.E.R.Y quick to declare victory!

Result: Hubris set in pretty solidly.

Resultantly, the collective euphoria in the West made it nothing short of blasphemous to even talk about Russia having a point of view about their security interests wrt Ukraine! As mentioned above, Zelensky was feted all over.
Btw, it is the same Germany that has suffered a direct & massive blow by the sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, some say done by its own allies! They tried to blame Putin, but by he not reacting to this bait, they are tripping over themselves to apportion blame to someone!

Neither do they tell their citizens that Russia is already in possession of over 20% of Ukrainian territory which they are unlikely to give back! Despite throwing billions of dollars in cash & military aid, all that they have to show is merely a slowed down pace of Russian advance.

And of course, a large number of bank failures! Oh wait, that happened in the USA .. My bad!
As far as Russia goes, fight is now to ensure that Ukraine ceases to be a politico-military problem of any worth. They don’t want a Pakistan on their borders, that’s for sure. So any negotiated end to this war will be at huge cost to Ukraine – geographically as well as otherwise.

A few possible endgame scenarios that might happen are as under:-

Stalemate
Negotiated Settlement
Breaking up of Ukraine (will delve on this a bit more)
Ceasefire, followed by negotiations
Ousting of leadership, either in Ukraine or Russia or both.


Of course, there is one more potential endgame scenario that some folks are talking about in hushed tones.
In any case, Ukraine stands to lose a LOT of territory East of the Dneiper River even in case of a negotiated settlement. However, what happens to the rest of Ukraine? Can it reasonably expect to survive as a sovereign entity in the aftermath?

Or will it become a state entirely dependent on Western aid to survive, especially after losing much of its productive lands in the East?

And most importantly, will Russia accept this?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

US commentator/s MacGregor reporting that the Reaper brought down by the Su-27s was within the ADIZ of Crimea with transponder shut down. Russia, it seems, had the right to bring such an craft down.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

-- deleted --
Last edited by NRao on 18 Mar 2023 22:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ShauryaT »

^^ Yes, looks like fake, as I saw a YouTube video not posting here as it seems to be click bait and I fell for it :(. I will delete my post.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

IndraD wrote:Biden to host state dinner for Modi https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... his-summer
basically all other adversaries of US already have been to Moscow or vice versa, so invite Mudi before it is too late, also no idea how long will he be able to tight rope walk this out! Eventually Mudi will have to pick a side. Such is the nature of this dirty game.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by A Deshmukh »

IndraD wrote:Eventually Mudi will have to pick a side. Such is the nature of this dirty game.
As of now, Modi has picked a side - India's. The Third Pole.
We will continue trade with Rus, Chin and Amrika.
At the onset of currency wars/De-dollarisation, India will trade with Rupees wherever possible and BRICs currency with Rus & Chin, and US Dollars with Western bloc.
Hence all the US efforts will be to dislodge Modi in 2024. It will be dirty in the next one year.
After that they may as well give up and accept Indian stand.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by drnayar »

University of Chicago Professor John Mearsheimer: I think that
In the rivalry between us (the Americans) and the Russians, the Russians will win. Now you're probably going to say, "Why does he say that?" Think about it: who has more determination? Who really cares more about this situation, the Russians or the Americans? The Americans don't care that much about Ukraine. The Americans have made it clear. They're not even willing to fight and die for Ukraine. So for us, they don't care that much. For the Russians, they've also made it clear, it's an existential threat. So the balance of resolve, I think, is in their favor. And as we move down the escalation ladder, I think—and this is just my assumption—that the Russians will win, not the Americans. I don't think it matters much to the U.S. if we lose in the sense that the Russians prevail in Ukraine. I think the real losers in this war are the Ukrainians. And I think what has happened here is that we have guided the Ukrainians down the path of Primrose. We pushed very hard to encourage the Ukrainians to become part of NATO. We pushed very hard to make them part of NATO. We pushed very hard to make them a Western bastion on Russia's borders, even though the Russians made it clear that this was unacceptable to them. We, as a result, and here I am talking about the West, took a stick and poked the bear in the eye. And as you all know, if you take a stick and poke a bear in the eye, the bear probably won't smile and laugh at what you're doing. The bear will fight back. And that's exactly what happens. And this bear is going to tear Ukraine apart. This bear is in the process of tearing Ukraine apart. And again, we're back to where we started. Who is responsible for this? Are the Russians responsible for this? I don't think so. There is no doubt that the Russians are doing the dirty work. But the question is, "What made the Russians do it?" and I think the answer is very simple: the United States.


https://twitter.com/GraphicW5/status/16 ... 8952058882
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

Turkey has agreed Finland entry into Nato what does it get in return?

https://www.reuters.com/world/natos-sto ... 023-03-17/
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

Polish Ambassador to France Jan Emeryk Rościszewski: "Either Ukraine will defend its independence today, or we will be forced to enter into this conflict." https://twitter.com/PeImeniPusha/status ... 86816?s=20

Poland itching to enter the conflict
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by hgupta »

All I can say is WW3.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

IndraD wrote:Polish Ambassador to France Jan Emeryk Rościszewski: "Either Ukraine will defend its independence today, or we will be forced to enter into this conflict." https://twitter.com/PeImeniPusha/status ... 86816?s=20

Poland itching to enter the conflict
I think this is the West's natural reaction to Xi's visit tomorrow. Trying to put pressure on Xi to hack a solution while he is in Moscow.

The problem is Putin called the Wests bluff last year when he started the Special Operations. And, unfortunately for the West (and Xi), China needs Russia and not the other way around.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by yensoy »

hgupta wrote:All I can say is WW3.
Lets remove the word "World" here. It's giving them too much credit. We got pulled into WWI and WWII, our soldiers sacrificed their lives for the sake of our colonizers, who in turn starved our population in order to feed their military machine. Sorry, not interested in a "world" war. This is a European/white people war. They have done enough damage. We will watch on the sidelines, and hope for sanity to return.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Germany, today, said they would arrest Putin, if he came to Germany, and hand him over to the ICC.

Last year when Putin did not visit Bali for the G-20, the rumor was that the Russian intel was of the opinion that Putin could get highjacked along the way, thus the risk was too high.

I suspect Putin would decline a visit to India for the G-20 for the very same reason. And, I would not blame him.

However, there are rumors that Modi would be invited to DC for a State dinner. IMO, this is not the time for such world leaders to travel abroad.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by hgupta »

I hope Modi finds a way to turn the invitation down saying that it is not helpful right now and sends the wrong message to the other side. We need to keep Russia as an ally.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by hgupta »

yensoy wrote:
hgupta wrote:All I can say is WW3.
Lets remove the word "World" here. It's giving them too much credit. We got pulled into WWI and WWII, our soldiers sacrificed their lives for the sake of our colonizers, who in turn starved our population in order to feed their military machine. Sorry, not interested in a "world" war. This is a European/white people war. They have done enough damage. We will watch on the sidelines, and hope for sanity to return.
We may not be given the option. Despite Dr. S. Jaishankar's, whom I have great respect and admiration for, warning about making Europe's problems the world's problem, that bitch, the PM of Italy, basically told him off at Rasina Hill Dialogues, well tough luck, our problem is your problem and deal with it.

The US/NATO/EU will make it the world's problem even though it is very euro-centric.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by drnayar »

:idea:
hgupta wrote:
yensoy wrote: Lets remove the word "World" here. It's giving them too much credit. We got pulled into WWI and WWII, our soldiers sacrificed their lives for the sake of our colonizers, who in turn starved our population in order to feed their military machine. Sorry, not interested in a "world" war. This is a European/white people war. They have done enough damage. We will watch on the sidelines, and hope for sanity to return.
Despite Dr. S. Jaishankar's, whom I have great respect and admiration for, warning about making Europe's problems the world's problem, that bitch, the PM of Italy, basically told him off at Rasina Hill Dialogues, well tough luck, our problem is your problem and deal with it.

The US/NATO/EU will make it the world's problem even though it is very euro-centric.
Js would say we ll deal it our way. the Italian pm said Europe's problems are now the world's problem not specifically indias., Also did not forget to sing praises for modi ! Not being "given " the option means you are following their rules. India is big enough to not do that.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by drnayar »

hgupta wrote:I hope Modi finds a way to turn the invitation down saying that it is not helpful right now and sends the wrong message to the other side. We need to keep Russia as an ally.
Better to go after winning 2024 by a landslide margin.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

X posting:
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7153&start=160#p2583483

There is yet another angle to the Khalistani problem. Though India has not said it explicitly, we have never subscribed to the west's total rejection of Donbass' right to self determination. Even today the west insists on "territorial integrity" turning a bling eye on years of oppression, bombings from planes, shellings and attacks on Donbass' population leading to 14000 lives lost since 2014 (extensively documented by the west's own OSCE reports).

Creating and scaling up a separatist problem in India, they hope, will put India in a bind. When India inevitably asks US & its allies to take action on Khalistani separatists, they will ask for a change in India's stand and denounce Donbass separatists and reject Russian integration of these territories. The Ukraine adventure is a lost cause for the west and they cant hide it anymore. Desperate measures are being taken to somehow wing it.

They believe India's support and trade with Russia is the prime reason why Russia could get back on its feet despite the unprecedented waves of sanctions. Getting India to shift its stance will be "game changer" in terms of regaining diplomatic, economic and military upper hand on Russia.

After carrots like the iCETS, QUAD, arms supply offers, tech transfers, invitation to G7, state visits to US, Japan ityadi, some sticks like "Khalistan separatism" are also being employed. India's rise has made it a big coveted prize in today's geopolitics.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

India has broken TSP in 1971. It is the original power to break a state through the use of force.

So India is not going to be bothered by the lack of support over the khalistani separatist movement.

The west has to decide if this is a tiger they want to ride.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Haresh »

NRao wrote:Germany, today, said they would arrest Putin, if he came to Germany, and hand him over to the ICC.
The Germans and other western countries are just lackey states.

The ICC that they hold so dear isn't even respected by their masters.
This is what America really thinks of it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-54003527
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1 ... 62305?s=20 blinken to Ukraine: do not accept peace offer from Ru-China
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