Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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Y. Kanan
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Y. Kanan »

Neela wrote:There is no chance of WW3.
If Russia can’t win on the ground using conventional means, then sadly yes, there is a high possibility of WW3, or more likely a limited “counterforce” style nuclear exchange that kills just a few million people (mainly military personnel and the people living in close proximity to major military targets).

Where that would leave us in the rest of the world is uncertain.
kit
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

Y. Kanan wrote:
Neela wrote:There is no chance of WW3.
If Russia can’t win on the ground using conventional means, then sadly yes, there is a high possibility of WW3, or more likely a limited “counterforce” style nuclear exchange that kills just a few million people (mainly military personnel and the people living in close proximity to major military targets).

Where that would leave us in the rest of the world is uncertain.

the aim of the slow bleed is to "soften" Russia and then try regime change
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

NRao wrote:Provoked the bear.

Now the dragon.

[youtube]C8joHb-MMJ4[/youtube
Whatever that helps American military industrial complex
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

JE Menon
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by JE Menon »

One of the best observers, with a clinical view of the subject, of the Ukrainian crisis is the former Swiss Intelligence Officer Jacques Baud. This may have been posted here before, but if so I missed, so let me relink it here again for interested readers.

https://www.thepostil.com/the-military- ... e-ukraine/
https://www.thepostil.com/the-military- ... an-update/

And much more of his observations, including more recent ones, here:
https://www.thepostil.com/author/jacques-baud/
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by dnivas »

JE Menon wrote:One of the best observers, with a clinical view of the subject, of the Ukrainian crisis is the former Swiss Intelligence Officer Jacques Baud. This may have been posted here before, but if so I missed, so let me relink it here again for interested readers.

https://www.thepostil.com/the-military- ... e-ukraine/
https://www.thepostil.com/the-military- ... an-update/

And much more of his observations, including more recent ones, here:
https://www.thepostil.com/author/jacques-baud/
Read a lot of his and the officer from the Austrian Military


Ukraine situation is getting bleaker by the day. if they want to get ground to atoms by moving forward into fixed defensive positions, the Russians are more than willing to shoot from afar.

Just this week, multiple concentrations of mercenaries have been vaporized.
multiple arms depot have been taken out
The famed Kherson Ukranian counter attack was only successful on twitter and western arms group giveaway conferences.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by dnivas »

I also forgot to add Erdogan is visiting Russia Aug 5'th. he also asked US to vacate Syria. As usual , mute responses.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »


so much for storing for the upcoming winter :mrgreen:
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

dnivas wrote:I also forgot to add Erdogan is visiting Russia Aug 5'th. he also asked US to vacate Syria. As usual , mute responses.
that guy is making deals all around with both sides, who in his right mind would think he is reliable? :roll:

Not sure what he got out of agreeing to Sweden and Finland in NATO., the talks about "extremists harboured there" cover for something else.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by dnivas »

kit wrote:
dnivas wrote:I also forgot to add Erdogan is visiting Russia Aug 5'th. he also asked US to vacate Syria. As usual , mute responses.
that guy is making deals all around with both sides, who in his right mind would think he is reliable? :roll:

Not sure what he got out of agreeing to Sweden and Finland in NATO., the talks about "extremists harboured there" cover for something else.
Erdogan is a type 2 Jihadi [from oil drop illustration] but what's funny is that he us undertaking a state visit to Sochi. NATO member showing ungli to US and EU and other NATO members and actually traveling to Russia.

Another funny news is that US SD folks were begging Arab diplomats not to take pics with the Russian delegation.

https://www.rt.com/news/559586-lavrov-p ... gypt-west/
He also recalled how German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock recently described a photo of Turkish Presidet Recep Tayyip Erdogan with his Russian and Iranian counterparts Vladimir Putin and Ebrahim Raisi as a “challenge.” Baerbock added that such an image was “incomprehensible” to her.
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

dnivas wrote:
kit wrote:

Another funny news is that US SD folks were begging Arab diplomats not to take pics with the Russian delegation.

https://www.rt.com/news/559586-lavrov-p ... gypt-west/

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Indeed Lavrov was a hit with the African delegation :mrgreen:

Image

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... r-analysis

have a look at the wording at the "guardian"

One high-profile actor has been the Wagner Group – a private company linked to the Kremlin thathas supplied mercenaries to about half a dozen African governments. These have not always met with unmitigated success. A deployment to combat Islamic extremist insurgents in Mozambique was a fiasco. Nor did Wagner fighters in Libya distinguish themselves on the battlefield when supporting the Benghazi-based warlord Khalifa Haftar’s offensive against Tripoli in 2019.

when did "thathas" become an english word ? Hinglish ? or maloo english ?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »



How Ireland landed in the center of Russia’s $10 billion plane heist
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

One more Menon

Jul 26, 2022. An hour and 6 minutes long:

NRao
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

TSP 2.0

https://twitter.com/Antiwarcom/status/1 ... 2657795073
Ukraine Government Asks US to Provide ‘Gas Lend-Lease’
Ukraine wants the US to provide gas without receiving payment for 2 years
by Dave DeCamp
@DecampDave
#Ukraine #LNG #gas #Russia
https://news.antiwar.com/2022/07/26/ukr ... end-lease/
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

https://twitter.com/rajan_menon_/status ... 1020414978
1/ Indian Register of Shipping will certify safety of 80+ ships of Dubai-based subsidiary of Russia’s commercial shipping company, removing key obstacle to insurance coverage. The move counters US/EU plan for price cap on RUS oil & ban on insuring tankers not applying cap.
2/ The plan isn’t likely to lower oil prices down anyway because: a) oil, unlike gas, can be moved to where there’s demand for it at a price that exceeds the cap; b) US efforts to convince Saudi Arabia to boost production so as to lower oil prices haven’t succeeded.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... LcC0LHyhqw ---> Report: India may soon overtake China as biggest importer of seaborne Russian crude.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

While Ukraine is going through hell, Vogue is doing a photoshoot for the President & his wife :roll: :lol:

Portrait of Bravery: Ukraine’s First Lady, Olena Zelenska
https://www.vogue.com/article/portrait- ... a-zelenska
26 July 2022
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

^^^^^

Interesting

She is supposed to be residing in the US. Miami.
Deans
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Deans »

NRao wrote:^^^^^

Interesting

She is supposed to be residing in the US. Miami.
Zelensky and most of his cabinet have dual citizenship. Usually US and Ukraine, in Zelensky's case, Israel.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

Bojo tipped to be next secretary general of NATO. His job plan involves tanking Europe's economy, drag as many countries into war as possible , prolong ukr-russia war, expedite russia disintegration where possible and loot its resources.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... eral-nato/
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

An example of failing upward.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

No idea what is happening in NATO/EU. JoBo for NATO what?

However, there is one thing I would very seriously keep an eye on: ANY German engineering company going under. Should be able to pick up some neat CNC, etc machines (5-axis, whatever) for a few cents on the dollar. Quality machines.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

NRao wrote:No idea what is happening in NATO/EU. JoBo for NATO what?

However, there is one thing I would very seriously keep an eye on: ANY German engineering company going under. Should be able to pick up some neat CNC, etc machines (5-axis, whatever) for a few cents on the dollar. Quality machines.
Western exports control regime will permit such an acquisition?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by V_Raman »

India is part of most of the alphabet soup treaties but for NSG of course. So import restrictions should be hopefully minimal...
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

IndraD wrote:Bojo tipped to be next secretary general of NATO. His job plan involves tanking Europe's economy, drag as many countries into war as possible , prolong ukr-russia war, expedite russia disintegration where possible and loot its resources.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... eral-nato/
a good pattern here., BoJo could not finish his poodle job as American lackey to "oversee" Uke and EU , so was bumped to the next best post
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

Pratyush wrote:
NRao wrote:No idea what is happening in NATO/EU. JoBo for NATO what?

However, there is one thing I would very seriously keep an eye on: ANY German engineering company going under. Should be able to pick up some neat CNC, etc machines (5-axis, whatever) for a few cents on the dollar. Quality machines.
Western exports control regime will permit such an acquisition?
i would suppose Germans would be happy with any order., most are not doing well esp engineering SMIs. Many a buck to be made here for the smart enough , Indias thirst for tech and equipment is booming , company acquisitions seem to be a good option
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

bojo lobbed grenade and fired machine gun in the direction of roos at a british army centre training ukr troops

Image

Image
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

IndraD wrote:bojo lobbed grenade and fired machine gun in the direction of roos at a british army centre training ukr troops
Link to images?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

^
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Putin used Indian talking points in his last speech (West deprived colonies, like India, of resources, etc). Now we have a "Track 3" between Germany and Russia!!!!

Kremlin: German ex-chancellor Schroeder in Moscow, meeting possible

So, who is Schroeder representing? Certainly NOT the current German leadership, and God forbid EU leadership of Ursula van der Crying.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Gerhard Schroeder is going to mire Germany even deeper into Putin's clutches.

He was the one that made Germany dependent on all that Russian oil. He represents Putin and no one else.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

Rakesh wrote:Gerhard Schroeder is going to mire Germany even deeper into Putin's clutches.

He was the one that made Germany dependent on all that Russian oil. He represents Putin and no one else.
Germany needs that cheap oil/gas for its industries to remain competitive!! Shroeder represents the industrial faction
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

Former Russian president presents future map of Ukraine
https://www.rt.com/russia/559735-medved ... tion-maps/

Current
Image

Medvedev offers Kiev a visual on its worst case scenario

To Be
Image
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

bala wrote:Former Russian president presents future map of Ukraine
...........................
Per the original Telegram post, Medvedev says the 2nd map is per "Western analysts"

He does not claim it to be a Russian dream. :)
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by dnivas »

Just chatted with a friends ex who lives in Mainz, close to Frankfurt. This is someone whose family has been very involved with the US military for a long time and currently now lives in the apts from the previously much larger base. The apts are now transferred to German civilians.

She and her family and her neighbors are very Pro US and pro Ukraine since beginning of the war. Her family has been involved with a lot of refugees from Africa [Family and friends are fluent in Turkish so help refugees on a daily basis dealing with German Bureaucracy ]

This is what I have heard first hand
1. Ukr refugees stay free in the nice hotels and nice condos paid by German govt
2. condition of getting unemployment benefits for any refugee is taking a job if available, in Ukr case, the Ukr refugee can refuse a job that they do not want and still get unemployment
3. Any north african refugee cannot leave the town they are registered to stay. They are restricted within the confines of the town for all purposes. This is not the case for Ukr refugees. They are free to travel to any part of Germany with no restrictions
4. In integration camp, refugees are required to learn German, Ukr are exempt and and actually forcefully refuse to learn German
5. Kids in schools are the worst and very truant. yesterday she had a elementary school kid sit with his foot o the table and he would not put his foot down. Parents mostly do not care. The stuff she described , show Ukr kids in a very TSP light
6. Two funny things and she was mindblown. Kid was not coming in to school and when parent was called in, parent said the it's summer holidays in Ukraine and so Ukr kids need summer holidays in Germany too. When parents were asked abt other kids, that parent had no answer
7. Another time her neighbor [works in refugee center ] was mindblown was when the family did not come for required appointments. When asked why, they said they went on vacation in Ukr. She asked the family why he hell are in In Germany as refuees if you can go and vacation in Ukr. There was no answer
8. Total Paki behavior by Ukr on the streets . They group accost anyone who asks them to speak in German or English . She and her neighbors have said they have never seen this type of behavior by any marginalized group ever.


I asked her what people in general think about four months in abt Ukr people in town. She said she , her neighbors and the other non Ukr refugees are livid at the German govt and the entitlement of the Ukr people moving to Germany.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ldev »

dnivas wrote:Just chatted with a friends ex who lives in Mainz, close to Frankfurt..........
A few points. I don't claim to be an expert on Germany or German affairs but having traveled there a few times these are my views:

Against Turks who came in as guest workers and now are the single largest group of "foreigners", although most are now 2nd and 3rd generation citizens, the complaint is that they live in ghettos and the older people still refuse to learn German. The Germans expect that anyone who will be accepted as a refugee in Germany and allowed to stay there via being given asylum will assimilate and learning to speak German and live among the larger German population is part of that process.

As far as Ukranian refugees are concerned, the expectation is that they will return to Ukraine and so they do not need to learn German, since they are being treated as refugees i.e. somebody who seeks temporary protection/shelter and then goes back to where they came from. Most Africans are deemed to be economic migrants, since they have come through other safe countries outside the EU before entering the EU and then once in the EU traveling to Germany because it's welfare policies are more generous than those of Spain or Italy that they may have traveled through on their way to Germany. The Syrians did the same thing a few years ago when Merkel in a fit of madness threw open the doors for one brief summer. So the Africans in effect are deemed "guilty" until they prove themselves "innocent" i.e. genuine refugees. The restrictions about not leaving the town etc. are as a result of this guilty until proven innocent situation. Does that mean that there are no genuine African refugees? Of course not, but the individual circumstances where a minority group in Burkina Faso is being persecuted by some other larger group will take time to establish because of lack of news/information about a situation which may not be in the news. In contrast thanks to global publicity, everyone is aware of the situation in Ukraine.
Last edited by ldev on 29 Jul 2022 09:12, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

The problem in Ukraine is that it is a military conflict run by a group in the West who are neither military persons, nor diplomats, BUT, have gained control over much of the diplomatic (and economic) apparatus, under a very weak political leadership.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ldev »

NRao wrote:The problem in Ukraine is that it is a military conflict run by a group in the West who are neither military persons, nor diplomats, BUT, have gained control over much of the diplomatic (and economic) apparatus, under a very weak political leadership.
And facing them, the conflict on the Russian side is being run by a group who are neither military persons, nor diplomats, but as ex KGB operatives are now siloviki. And because it was the siloviki micro managing the Russian operation in the early phases of the war, it was a disaster for them.
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