Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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NRao
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

The Dollar amount, from the US, has been declining. And, a lot of items promised will take time to reach the front, some will take a year or more.

I thought the UK said they had a large "hole" of some 50 billion pounds in the financial support to UKR. Besides the UK is broke, will stop subsidies for Ukrainian refugees after March.

France, etc have been itching to stop financing.

European economies are declining.

Global economies will be in recession next year.

All the best supporting Ukraine financially
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by eklavya »

Some interesting options are being considered by the EU regarding future funding for Ukraine:

Kremlin accuses West of having "essentially stolen" gold, forex reserves via sanctions
Kremlin accuses West of having "essentially stolen" gold, forex reserves via sanctions
Reuters

MOSCOW, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Russia on Monday accused Western countries of having "essentially stolen" its gold and foreign exchange reserves via sanctions.

Asked by reporters about a European Union proposal to transfer frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "In general, a part large of our assets have been essentially stolen by specific Western countries."

Unprecedented Western sanctions have frozen around half of Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves, which stood near $640 billion before Moscow sent troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Last week, European Council head Charles Michel said that the bloc should consider transferring frozen Russian reserves to Ukraine.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chetak »

eklavya wrote:Some interesting options are being considered by the EU regarding future funding for Ukraine:

Kremlin accuses West of having "essentially stolen" gold, forex reserves via sanctions
Kremlin accuses West of having "essentially stolen" gold, forex reserves via sanctions
Reuters

MOSCOW, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Russia on Monday accused Western countries of having "essentially stolen" its gold and foreign exchange reserves via sanctions.

Asked by reporters about a European Union proposal to transfer frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "In general, a part large of our assets have been essentially stolen by specific Western countries."

Unprecedented Western sanctions have frozen around half of Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves, which stood near $640 billion before Moscow sent troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Last week, European Council head Charles Michel said that the bloc should consider transferring frozen Russian reserves to Ukraine.
eklavya ji,

What happens to saudi and other arab assets held abroad....if and when their oil is also "price capped"

If the amerikis/europeans steal russian assets today and transfer it to UKR, what is to stop the west from price capping arab oil and also seizing arab assets in the west to give to someone else as "compensation"

the woke europeans are a bunch of short sighted and entitled punks who think that the sun shines out of their a.....

Jaishankar was dead right when he said that europe thinks that their problems are the world's problems but the europeans think that the vice versa is not true.

Does anyone think that price caps were not proposed before this..

The eyraabs have extensively gamed this "price caps" thingy over the years.

price caps are the most horrible nightmares of any oil producer and the amerikis have started talking about letting this particular genie out of the bottle.

The amerikis lost all respect and trust internationally when they ran out on afghanistan without a second thought as to the consequences and the damage caused by allowing the taliban to come to power, both regionally and globally.

Respect and trust is like virginity, because once lost, its gone forever. The eyraabs certainly do not trust the amerikis now and neither do the europeans.

The woke commies in the US have intentionally damaged the US on the global stage and also it's ability to now form "willing" coalitions and wage war. Using biden's diminished mental faculties, the wokes have brought down big game but much bigger game is on the prowl in the persona of xi.

The collateral damage caused by the foolish ameriki abandoning afghanistan was planned, intentional, and deliberate, especially in the way the amerikis publicly abandoned afghanistan, without even consulting their allies and "friends".

Now this very same damaged and diminished entity is back to waging war against Russia by using UKR as a pawn and proxy, destabilizing and damaging the global economy, and condemning the EU countries to a few decades worth of low growth, with loss of income, degraded lifestyles, and diminished prosperity and suddenly the amerikis find that there are very few takers for "sanctions" and trade bans when the amerikis themselves are not facing such harsh conditions back home.

In the meanwhile, xi continues to stock up feverishly on imported grain and imported oil...waiting, watching, and maybe preparing for the opportune moment..

is taiwan now more at risk, after all these gora precipitated needless shenanigans....
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chanakyaa »

eklavya wrote:Some interesting options are being considered by the EU regarding future funding for Ukraine:

Kremlin accuses West of having "essentially stolen" gold, forex reserves via sanctions
...
So Reuters (allegedly provider of trusted news), wants its readers to believe that Russ, which has been preparing for this conflict for the past 8 years, is so stupid that they left their gold in foreign vaults? Did you notice what the top of the page says about this news.... "This content was produced in Russ" :D

And, then about the $$ reserves which are parked in the foreign accounts. All that Russiyan central bank needs to do is declare the foreign currency reserves as null and void, and issue equivalent amount of ruble at home, effectively repatriating foreign reserves. Reserves are merely digital numbers in a computer, nothing tangible. Furthermore, appreciation of ruble against USD and Euro has effectively transferred wealth to Russ. In practice, $$ parked in the foreign countries are currently being used to pay $$ interest on outstanding $$ sovereign bonds, so there is no default.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

The gold that India sent in 1990s I believe is still sitting in Switzerland. It is not much, but, .......

US is the host nation for India's oil reserves.

Just saying
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by eklavya »

chanakyaa wrote: And, then about the $$ reserves which are parked in the foreign accounts. All that Russiyan central bank needs to do is declare the foreign currency reserves as null and void, and issue equivalent amount of ruble at home, effectively repatriating foreign reserves. Reserves are merely digital numbers in a computer, nothing tangible. Furthermore, appreciation of ruble against USD and Euro has effectively transferred wealth to Russ. In practice, $$ parked in the foreign countries are currently being used to pay $$ interest on outstanding $$ sovereign bonds, so there is no default.
That’s not how it works sir. A deposit is a claim against a bank. A bank that receives a deposit can onlend that money (create an asset) or it can park it somewhere in the market or indeed with the central bank (which is also an asset). If a depositor says that they no longer want their money back, then the claim on the bank (the liability) disappears but the asset remains. That bank literally just became richer by the amount of the deposit that the depositor doesn’t want back. It’s like you lend someone a $100 bill and then say you don’t want it back. You just gifted that person $100.

Printing the equivalent amount at home will just cause inflation, no wealth creation.

The reality is that President Putin’s advisers did not anticipate the severity of the sanctions (they thought they would be a bit like the sanctions after Crimea i.e. nothing to be concerned about) or indeed the strength of the military resistance being offered by Ukraine (or the amount of military, financial and diplomatic support being provided by the West to Ukraine). It’s a horrible miscalculation by President Putin. He bet the farm on a losing horse.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by eklavya »

chetak wrote:
What happens to saudi and other arab assets held abroad....if and when their oil is also "price capped"

If the amerikis/europeans steal russian assets today and transfer it to UKR, what is to stop the west from price capping arab oil and also seizing arab assets in the west to give to someone else as "compensation"
Chetak-ji, if a country from the Middle East or somewhere else in the world were to invade Ukraine, my expectation is that the sanctions and consequences that country would suffer would be even worse than what Russia has had to suffer after its invasion of Ukraine. Russia has thousands of nuclear weapons and no one dare attack their country directly. If a non nuclear country had invaded Ukraine, I expect they would have been “bombed to the Stone Age” by the USAF.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Strawman nonsensical argument. No country goes about invading another churlishly except the US. There is no logic behind this harebrained idea of oil price cap except the west's belief that they are strong enough to enforce it. Another desperate attempt to somehow damage Russia while ignoring damage to own interests.

OPEC+ will refuse it, they will increase non-dollar trade, withdraw sovereign deposits from western banks. US can retaliate by threatening to withdraw military protection to KSA, which is exactly what MBS is waiting for to ditch the US and join BRICS and get a security blanket from Russia, China, India.

What stops BRICS from adopting a mutual defense pact like NATO ? America's hegemony will be truly over. They will have to take on everyone else on a truly global conflict and risk everything. Lose-lose scenario.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chetak »

eklavya wrote:
chetak wrote:
What happens to saudi and other arab assets held abroad....if and when their oil is also "price capped"

If the amerikis/europeans steal russian assets today and transfer it to UKR, what is to stop the west from price capping arab oil and also seizing arab assets in the west to give to someone else as "compensation"
Chetak-ji, if a country from the Middle East or somewhere else in the world were to invade Ukraine, my expectation is that the sanctions and consequences that country would suffer would be even worse than what Russia has had to suffer after its invasion of Ukraine. Russia has thousands of nuclear weapons and no one dare attack their country directly. If a non nuclear country had invaded Ukraine, I expect they would have been “bombed to the Stone Age” by the USAF.
eklavya ji,

US help always comes with many strings, stiff hidden conditions and there is always a very steep price to pay upfront and that price also continues to be paid for decades thereafter

You are absolutely right about a nuke state aggressing in UKR. It is not only that but putin would also ensure that the main battleground would be centred in europe and an aging, inflation-ravaged, pampered society that had gotten used to a high standard of living because of decades of enforced "peace", fuelled by money saved by not paying or funding their own national security requirements because of the nuke umbrella that US provides.

So an almost completely consumption-driven EU, focussed on societal comforts needs not only cheap imports but also a cheap and plentiful supply of energy. The US does not want either a strong germany or a strong france, competing in the same markets as the US does.The bali ka bakra is UKR and the chosen kasai is russia. The owner of the bakra is ........, you know who as well as I do.

zelenskyy is completely expendable with none to grieve for him

One stone for many mangoes, no...........

UKR is the symptom and not the actual problem, but that is a discussion for another day.

Far from UKR proxy war turning out to be a battle of attrition for the russkis, as planned, this war has inflicted very significant inflationary as well as economic collateral damage on the economies of europe, the UK, as well as, to the US economy itself. Whole societies in many nations have been destabilized and left without support and the self perpetuated myth of EU invincibility has forever been destroyed.

Their much vaunted NATO turned out like the french maginot line did in WWII.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the US is set to gain strategically and financially by selling arms and energy to europe.

Its MIC stocks have risen substantially

There have been international crises where oil prices have spiked and many thinktankis and govt agencies have looked at price caps on two or three instances earlier

saddam invaded kuwait and see what happened was purposely done to him and eyraaq as an exemplar to others in the gulf, mainly eyraan and the ayatollahs.

Oil Embargo, 1973–1974. During the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) imposed an embargo against the United States in retaliation for the U.S. decision to re-supply the Israeli military and to gain leverage in the post-war peace negotiations

With the OPEC oil embargo of 1973, oil prices jumped 350%, and the higher costs rippled through the economy. Although business and government asked consumers to help by conserving energy, and entrepreneurs worked on solutions, the economic crises worsened
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by eklavya »

Cyrano wrote: No country goes about invading another churlishly except the US.

OPEC+ will refuse it, they will increase non-dollar trade, withdraw sovereign deposits from western banks. US can retaliate by threatening to withdraw military protection to KSA, which is exactly what MBS is waiting for to ditch the US and join BRICS and get a security blanket from Russia, China, India.

What stops BRICS from adopting a mutual defense pact like NATO ? America's hegemony will be truly over. They will have to take on everyone else on a truly global conflict and risk everything. Lose-lose scenario.
Russia has invaded Ukraine, and therefore the sanctions on Russia, etc.

BRICS is not a security pact. It’s just a catchy acronym dreamt up by an investment bank. Russia and China are very close to Iran, which is a key security challenge to KSA. India is also not in the business of mutual defence pacts. Why would Brazil bother to get involved.

China is a key threat to India’s security. What exactly persuades the CPC to ditch their all weather friend Pakistan and also to give up their own claims on and ongoing occupation of Indian territory and provide a security guarantee to India? The ground reality is that India’s defence against China benefits from US support.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

I wonder what the reason for this infatuation with toeing the US line is at the expense of Indian interests.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

Poland will introduce a bill which will demand
-every Ukrop living in Poland signs a pledge of loyalty
-asks for forgiveness for crimes done by Ukrops in the past against Poles
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

IndraD wrote:Poland will introduce a bill which will demand
-every Ukrop living in Poland signs a pledge of loyalty
-asks for forgiveness for crimes done by Ukrops in the past against Poles
The way Poland is going. How long it's going to take before the Germans realise that it's now a threat to them and not just Russians.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

Poles have unbelievable sense of entitlement, they (so far) have asked Gerrmans to pay $$ Trillions in reparation for Nazi invasion, Norway to share oil gas loot booty worth $$Bs, taking lions share of Euros from EU for protecting Ukraine this year & becoming military outpost of US.
Also read US has increased military tech sharing with them, once again geography is destiny (Syria, Afghanistan, Turkey)
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

European countries have centuries of wars and long histories of mutual aggressions between them. As soon as they get a chance they try to grab with both hands and press their advantage to gain strength. Especially true for land locked or limited sea access countries. Poland is one.

The EU experiment mostly worked well to curb this tendency. But Poland's behaviour is an indication of a weakening EU. I'd be surprised if EU lasts in its present form 3 years from now.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chanakyaa »

eklavya wrote: ...
That’s not how it works sir. A deposit is a claim against a bank. A bank that receives a deposit can onlend that money (create an asset) or it can park it somewhere in the market or indeed with the central bank (which is also an asset). If a depositor says that they no longer want their money back, then the claim on the bank (the liability) disappears but the asset remains. That bank literally just became richer by the amount of the deposit that the depositor doesn’t want back. It’s like you lend someone a $100 bill and then say you don’t want it back. You just gifted that person $100.

Printing the equivalent amount at home will just cause inflation, no wealth creation.
(OT) retail banking example is fine, but what is missed here is the exchange rate between the two currencies. You are right that Russ may have been prevented from accessing some of its reserves in the YooS, but Ruble has appreciated against YooSD by ~20% and ~27% against You-row, which means those unaccessible reserves are ~20-27% worth-less.

On the topic of reserves, imagine what kind message is being sent to rest of the world. If Russ can't secure its reserves, how safe are the reserves of the RoW? So, does it make sense to maintain the status-quo?
Last edited by chanakyaa on 13 Nov 2022 00:13, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by CalvinH »

IndraD wrote:Poles have unbelievable sense of entitlement, they (so far) have asked Gerrmans to pay $$ Trillions in reparation for Nazi invasion, Norway to share oil gas loot booty worth $$Bs, taking lions share of Euros from EU for protecting Ukraine this year & becoming military outpost of US.
Also read US has increased military tech sharing with them, once again geography is destiny (Syria, Afghanistan, Turkey)
Sound like Pakis of Europe!!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by eklavya »

chanakyaa wrote:
On the topic of reserves, imagine what kind message is being sent to rest of the world. If Russ can't secure its reserves, how safe are the reserves of the RoW? So, does it make sense to maintain the status-quo?
Reserves and assets should be kept in currencies and countries where you are confident of maintaining unrestricted access. In Russia’s case, in the current geopolitical situation, this would exclude USD, CAD, AUD, EUR, JPY, SFR, GBP. Russia should have (with hindsight, admittedly) kept their reserves in a currency where sanctions / asset freeze were not a risk.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

The west alone has paid Russia more than the reserves they froze by way of increased oil, gas and commodity prices. Russia unloaded most of its dollar holdings before the invasion. But it still has a legal claim on it's forex reserves and other assets held abroad.

What US and EU have done is shake the confidence of a lot of countries in the long term.

India is surely very alert on its forex reserves, gold, even petroleum reserves held abroad mostly in US and European banks and tanks. We will definitely want to _not_ park more than strictly necessary for BAU in these countries and diversify where we keep our reserves.

The west is still trading with Russia even today in oil and gas, fertilizers, metals, grain, enriched uranium etc. And many Russian banks have been quietly taken off the sanctions list to enable all this trade.

So when they - who are directly involved in the conflict - do it it's ok, but India must be pressured to adhere to oil price cap even when it has no goat in the conflict.

It's precisely this hypocrisy that Russia has cleverly highlighted to bring many countries to its line of thinking and distance from the west.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by eklavya »

Russia should indeed diversify their holdings. Too much in RMB also not a great option. They should hold more in INR, especially as INR will soon account for the 4th largest economy globally, after USD, EUR and RMB.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

Democrats retain control of Senate in US, so now the onus of ending the war is on broken economy of Europe
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

IndraD wrote:Democrats retain control of Senate in US, so now the onus of ending the war is on broken economy of Europe
How much difference is there between them? As someone said in the past week, whoever is in power gets 75% of the loot. Remember it is a binary political system. One gets 75, the other 25.

Dems have Nuland to bat and the Republicans have Bolton to bat for them. Both, after all, do the same: collect monies to topple foreign regimes. Bolton is very busy trying to dethrone Erdogan.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by eklavya »

The Economist: Mikhail Khodorkovsky says now is no time to push for peace talks in Ukraine
Mikhail Khodorkovsky says now is no time to push for peace talks in Ukraine
The former oil mogul explains that the war will not end while Vladimir Putin remains in power

Nov 10th 2022

The coming of cold and wet weather on the Russian-Ukrainian front hinders the advancing side and helps the defending one, so the chances of large-scale movements look increasingly slim over the coming months. This static confrontation has rekindled the idea that talks with Vladimir Putin would be desirable. Not only has the eccentric Elon Musk spoken on the subject, but also the famous economist Jeffrey Sachs. The latter went furthest, saying that it was a mistake not to go along with Mr Putin’s conditions in March. Back then those conditions included demands that Ukraine recognise occupied territories as Russian, maintain a neutral status and demilitarise.

Since the tragedy of Bucha, a town outside Kyiv where the bodies of murdered civilians were found in April, Western support for Ukraine and effective counter-offensives have harmed Mr Putin. A supposed Russian retreat from Kherson was announced on November 9th. And Mr Putin had to badly undermine his own credibility in Russia in September by declaring “partial” mobilisation. The announcement was the first of its kind in almost 80 years.

Mr Putin is politically wounded but he still believes he can win. He is deliberately striking civilian targets, depriving Ukraine’s population of water, light and heat on the brink of winter in order to force the country’s leadership to accept his terms. His terror elicits the response he expects—a respected businessman and economist publicly offering to meet the terrorist’s demands in return for peace.

Those urging talks are probably doing so for quite humane and pragmatic reasons: in their view Ukraine cannot win, so they consider it reasonable not to waste lives and money on confrontation. Instead they want capitulation, although not of an unconditional nature. For Ukraine this would involve the secession of some territories, relinquishing potential military alliances (in particular, with nato) and accepting limits on its own forces. Perhaps people have in their minds the example of Finland, which bought off Joseph Stalin by conceding Karelia in 1940 and becoming a satellite of the Soviet Union for many years.

Unfortunately, this good advice does little but pave the road to hell. Mr Putin is now fighting a fourth war, which, like his previous ones in Chechnya, Georgia and Syria, he started when his ratings in Russia fluctuated. In the absence of the rule of law—a situation created by Mr Putin himself—ratings and violence are the two pillars of his regime. Without both, it’s all over.

When I say Mr Putin got into this war in vain, I mean that it is impossible to come away with any kind of victory, because even capturing Ukraine is not the end. His other demands are for nato to return to its 1997 borders and a division of spheres of influence. And ending the war isn’t going to do anything for Russia’s grim economic situation: captured territory is a liability, not an asset. This means that a new conflict is inevitable, especially as the forces of national chauvinism awakened by the invasion of Ukraine will not be satisfied by the terms of any peace treaty.

It is important to understand that Mr Putin and his inner circle have lived their entire lives under mafia codes whereby laws do not exist, and which are antithetical to the rule of law. In his mind, there is only power. If the opponent retreats and asks to negotiate, it means he has lost and can and should be squeezed for all he’s got. In this case, that could mean seizing all or at least two-thirds of Ukraine, imposing an ultimatum on nato and blackmailing Moldova and the Baltic states. We aren’t there yet.

What Mr Putin really needs is a breather. His mobilisation plans have been disastrous; worse is the flow of “letters of condolence” to the families of dead Russian soldiers. If there’s another partial mobilisation, it will lead to a high risk of the collapse of the regime. He needs time to call the inhabitants of the occupied territories to arms, as was the case in the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic. A year’s pause would also allow Russia’s defence industry to fill empty arms depots once more, in spite of the emigration of thousands of talented Russian workers.

If things carry on the way they are going without a break, soon Mr Putin will simply not be able to fight. So urgent questions loom. Is he prepared to use nuclear weapons? What would he achieve? A sky closed to Russian aircraft, a destroyed Black Sea fleet, defunct supply lines and an army fleeing from nato? I doubt Mr Putin will risk going nuclear.

Any negotiations would harm the high morale of the Ukrainian army. And in a peace deal what would guarantee that within a year there wouldn’t be another attack? Mr Putin’s word? Don’t make me laugh! Ukraine’s nato membership? It’s not possible! American peacekeepers on the line of separation of forces? No, America is not ready for this! Massive arms deliveries, so that the growth of the Ukrainian army’s fighting ability outstrips the rebuilding of Mr Putin’s forces? It is unlikely that this is going to happen!

So what could stem from negotiations? A hint of victory for Mr Putin, perhaps, or a respite during which the Kremlin will try to rebuild its army and weapons. High gas and oil prices (as Mr Putin now knows that he can produce less to earn high revenues). And nato countries needing to spend vast sums to guard against increasingly predictable aggression from the “winner of the Ukraine campaign”. Negotiations would also send a powerful message to autocracies, from China and North Korea to Iran, that the West is weak, unable to hold ground and incapable of protecting its friends. There are many more conflict hotspots on the world map that could be affected as a result.

The West should show clearly and loudly that thuggery needs redress, and make an example of the goon running Russia. It could demonstrate that such behaviour can and will be punished. This does not mean the impossibility of negotiations as such—the war must end in peace, and peace, as long as it is not bought by overstepping Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders, will involve some kind of agreement. Agreements and allowing an aggressor to benefit from aggression, however, are not the same thing.

As long as Mr Putin is in the Kremlin there will be no peace. So the choice at present is simple: Russia should return seized territories and Ukraine might then be able to adopt a neutral status; or Ukraine, for its own reasons, agrees or finds an acceptable ceasefire. (This second option would necessitate a direct military alliance between Ukraine and its backers, including Britain and America.) Either choice should come with an understanding that such exchanges do not constitute peace, but a short respite before the inevitable continuation of the conflict. The end of the war will only be possible after a change of regime in the Kremlin.■
_______________

Mikhail Khodorkovsky was formerly a political prisoner and chief executive of Yukos, the Russian oil company. He is the author of “The Russia Conundrum: How the West Fell for Putin’s Power Gambit—and How to Fix It.” (2022)
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Looks like this fellow was badly humped by Putin and then let go. If Putin was indeed such a monster this ex CEO of Yukos wouldn't be alive to write columns of vitriol in the Economist.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

Khodorovsky ? What next… will we be subjected to Zakir Naik’s opinions on Modi and BJP in India?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

When Pelosi flew to Taiwan I had said the US is not ready to fight (I had meant in the first ring):

IF YOU THINK THE UNITED STATES IS READY FOR A CONVENTIONAL WAR WITH RUSSIA OR CHINA, THINK AGAIN

12 November 2022 by Larry Johnson (Ex-CIA Officer)
The General Accounting Office published a troubling study of the readiness of military aircraft that are essential to the air operations of the U.S. Army, the Navy, the Marine Corps and the Air Force:
GAO source wrote: GAO examined 49 aircraft and found that only four met their annual mission capable goal in a majority of the years from fiscal years 2011 through 2021. As shown below, 26 aircraft did not meet their annual mission capable goal in any fiscal year. The mission capable rate—the percentage of total time when the aircraft can fly and perform at least one mission—is used to assess the health and readiness of an aircraft fleet.
Think about the implications of this. The United States defense budget for FY 2022 is $715 billion. This is almost two and a half times the defense budgets of China and Russia combined:
source wrote: At the fifth session of the 13th National People’s Congress in early March, the Chinese government announced a defense budget of 1.45 trillion yuan (about $229 billion) for fiscal year 2022, which is a 7.1 percent year-on-year increase from 2021 (Xinhua, March 5).
source wrote: [Russian] defense spending from January to April totaled almost 1.6 trillion rubles ($26.4 billion), with about 500 billion rubles ($8.3 billion) of spending per month for March and April. Considering these dynamics in comparison with Moscow’s defense spending in previous years—roughly 300 billion rubles ($5 billion) per month—and the fact that the original defense budget in 2022 was 3.85 trillion rubles ($63.6 billion), the true amount for Russian defense spending in 2022 may well reach as much as 5.5 trillion rubles ($90.9 billion) by the end of the year (Budget.gov.ru, May 2022).
If you think that spending more money that China and Russia on outfitting the U.S. military buys greater capability, think again. Here is what the GAO says:
source wrote: Comparing fiscal year 2011 to fiscal year 2021, the average mission capable rate for the selected aircraft has fallen for the Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps, to varying degrees. The average mission capable rate for the selected Army aircraft has risen.

For fiscal year 2021, GAO found that only two of the 49 aircraft examined met the service-established mission capable goal. More specifically, for fiscal year 2021, 30 aircraft were more than 10 percentage points below the mission capable goal in fiscal year 2021; and 17 aircraft were 10 percentage points or less below the mission capable goal in fiscal year 2021.

Many of the selected aircraft are facing one or more sustainment challenges, as shown below. According to program officials, these challenges have an effect on mission capable rates.
It would be one thing if these problems were confined to just one class of aircraft. As the chart below shows, the “challenges” are pervasive and affect all key operational capabilities, from Air Refueling to long range bombers (source: https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-106217):

Image

The GAO provides a more focused analysis on aircraft from the five services (i.e., Air Force, Navy, JOINT, Army and Marine Corps). It is not a pretty picture:

Image

{The above two images are from a 352 PDF doc: Weapon System Sustainment Aircraft Mission Capable Goals Were Generally Not Met and Sustainment Costs Varied by Aircraft, dated: November 2022}

Let me put this into practical terms. Let us suppose the United States wants to deploy troops and equipment to Ukraine to prepare for entering the conflict to reinforce Ukriane. A key Air Force asset with that mission is the C-5M.

ccording to the GAO report, this aging plane (I saw one of the first ones produced as a young boy during a visit to Georgia in 1968 — the plane is 54 years old) is deficient in the following areas:

Unexpected replacement of parts and repairs.
Delays in depot maintenance.
Shortage of trained maintenance personnel.
Unscheduled maintenance.
Diminishing manufacturing source.
Parts obsolescence.
Parts shortage and delay.

This means potential delays in the deployment of troops, vehicles, helicopters and artillery. If China decides to move on Taiwan then the United States military commanders are likely to be faced with the dilemma of not being able to support major military engagements in Russia and China. Which geographic region receives the priority for taking control of the usable C5s?

The United States Navy currently has 296 in “battle-force ships in inventory” but only 251 active ships in commission (The number of ships active in commission includes those that are commissioned but not battle-ready, such as the USS Constitution; and excludes most combat logistics and fleet support ships.)

According to data compiled and updated by the Navy, here is the current total of battle-force ships as of June 23, 2021.

Aircraft Carriers: 11

Surface Combatants: 115

Submarines: 68

Amphibious Warfare Ships: 31

Mine Warfare Ships: 8

Combat Logistics Ships: 29

Fleet Support: 33

Auxiliary Support: 1

Combatant Craft: 0

Other: 0

To put this in context — prior to the start of World War II, the United States had 790 active ships. By the end of the war, that number soared to 6084. Today’s fleet is half-the size of the U.S. fleet at the dawn of World War II. The U.S. Navy is now a carrier centered force, as I have discussed in previous posts. Its ability to project force has diminished over the last ten years as Russia and China have developed effective hypersonic missiles that can defeat the current air and missile defense systems in place ostensibly to protect the Carrier task forces from attack.

The critical difference between now and December 7, 1941 is the dramatic decline in the U.S. industrial base. After Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor, the United States built and deployed 5,294 ships–e.g., aircraft carriers, battleships and destroyers–in three years. Think about that. The United States was producing on average 147 ships a month. Today, it takes 5 to 7 years to build and deploy an aircraft carrier. In the event of a war with Russia and/or China, the United States can no longer churn out the volume of naval craft it did in World War II. Just because the ships are loaded up with more advanced technology does not automatically translate into greater combat effectiveness and longevity.

I am not trying to be a Debbie Downer. Just pointing out some uncomfortable facts that should make any officer or political leader contemplating war with Russia and China to think twice.
Vayutuvan
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Vayutuvan »

CalvinH wrote: Sound like Pakis of Europe!!
Pakraine is already there. Prolly these folks are trying to wrench that title away from Ukraine. Polanistan.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vera_k »

Good summary of Russian negotiating position in December last year.
Vladimir Putin Names His Price
Moscow wants NATO to rule out eastward expansion and roll back military activity in a range of theaters, according to draft documents sent to the U.S. and allies this week. This would mean blocking Ukrainian accession to the alliance and effectively banning NATO forces from being stationed in member states like Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chetak »

Tanaji wrote:I wonder what the reason for this infatuation with toeing the US line is at the expense of Indian interests.
The amerikis always go where there are profits to be made, resources to be plundered and their power projection is leveraged only to these ends.

Since before vajpayee's time, the ameriki deep state has coveted the highly disciplined, absolutely apolitical, truly secular and very professional Indian armed forces, and have not only fantasized using it in their wars under ameriki command but also tried time and again to subvert the colonially influenced Indian deep state to make this. vajpayee was seriously pressured by the amerikis in a bid to get Indian boots on the ground in eyeraaq.

the amerikis are solely and primarily focussed on their self interests, always were, and always will be.

For the first time in the history of independent India we have a govt that says clearly, we mean don't you or anyone else harm or ill will but our supreme national interests will now be the sole motivating/guiding factor that drives us. The future of 1.4 billion Indians cannot be mortgaged just to massage the ego of some racist white men tens of thousands of miles away.

we do not (now or in the future) have a dog in this fight.

ukr is your monkey and hence it's your circus.

This may manifest in many different ways, like in the way we shared our vaccines, our grain, and our medicines with the most needy and the ones who were side lined by all the others or in the way that we disregarded your sanctimonious self serving sanctions regime or in the way we hit back at galwan.

we are not colonial slaves anymore, so don't expect us to toe your line at our immense cost, or support your self aggrandizing aggressions to our national detriment.

Tanaji saar,

there are many wokes in India, especially of the lootyens, commie, and naxal persuasion who are simply unable to understand or accept this logic or the foreign policy imperatives of India at this time, or they are being paid extremely well to push a counter narrative...

Their brains are frozen in colonial time and they only see visas, NGO funds, deep state presstitutes patronage, and the track thoo gravy train that has ground to a shuddering halt.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chetak »

is this a german department store....

selling firewood and kerosene

truly, how the mighty have fallen

Bismarck would be turning over in his grave


Image
V_Raman
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by V_Raman »

I thought wood and kerosene always sold - they are sold all the time in USA!!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by SaraLax »

chetak wrote:is this a german department store....

selling firewood and kerosene

truly, how the mighty have fallen

Bismarck would be turning over in his grave


Image
It sure is a photograph from LiDL - a well run German market chain and this super market might well be in Germany or Austria because of the use of Deutsch words in the banner.

It is my understanding that economically lower class folks use Wood & Fuel to heat up the fireplace in their homes during winter. In current times - this combo could very well be in great demand because of higher cost of gas.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Most European homes have common heating in some apartment blocks, or individual heating using electricity, or natural gas or heating fuel which is different from kerosene (used for lamps or in aviation or rockets with slightly different composition. In recent years, use of reconstituted wood pellets or granules (approx size of cigarette butts) has also become popular. Some houses still have wood burning open fireplaces or closed wood stoves which double as cooking surfaces as well, especially in the countryside.

Given the quantities needed to heat a 4 room house the kind of wood packs we see above will barely last an hour or two in 1 fireplace. These small sized wood pieces are used to start a fire easily. For sustained heating through out the day, you need thicker logs split into 4, with much dense and dried wood. People who use them buy them in cubic meters or "steres" like below.

Image

The type of heating fuel cans you see in Lidl are typically 10L or 20L and are used for adhoc heating units used for spaces that do not have heating systems installed. They dont need a chimney so the space must be well ventilated else risk of CO intoxication and smoke smell. Essentially a large sized petromax light (if you remember) with burners optimised for heat, not light production. Comes with risks of burns and fire accidents as well.
Image

Both small wood bags and heating fuel cans have been sold in gas stations, supermarkets etc since ages. So the pic posted above is nothing new.

However, the prices of ALL types of heating have gone up by at least 50% in France this year. Since one can't changed the installed heating system type (electricity/gas/fuel/wood pellets/wood fireplaces) just like that, if the type you are using gets very expensive or supply is cut, you need to have temporary alternatives to be used sparingly or as much as you can afford.

I have gas fired central heating (pumps hot water at about 60°C through a series of cast-iron radiators in a closed loop), and I have a few small portable electric room heaters (essentially a toaster with a fan) for temporary emergency use for heating bedrooms just in case. They are inexpensive to buy (around 30€) but expensive to run (a 2400W heater would cost about 0.35€/hour for a room of 25sq m. of electricity in France today). If lot of people use these at peak hours, it will surely lead to grid overload !

Overall, European residents will face lot of problems of supply and cost for heating homes this winter. SO far we've been lucky with a very mild onset of winter with temperatures mostly above the norm for the season.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by JE Menon »

Cyrano wrote:European countries have centuries of wars and long histories of mutual aggressions between them. As soon as they get a chance they try to grab with both hands and press their advantage to gain strength. Especially true for land locked or limited sea access countries. Poland is one.

The EU experiment mostly worked well to curb this tendency. But Poland's behaviour is an indication of a weakening EU. I'd be surprised if EU lasts in its present form 3 years from now.

Here's an article I wrote in Swarajya on exactly this subject around May I think...

https://swarajyamag.com/world/a-changed ... orm-europe
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by eklavya »

IE: C Raja Mohan writes: Putin’s Ukraine misadventure will undermine Moscow’s Asian ambitions

Asia hoped that Russia could be a valuable ‘third force’ for a region that was being sandwiched between America and China. But in aligning with China, pursuing an impossible sphere of influence in Central Europe, and launching a costly but failed invasion of a brother nation in Europe, Putin has further marginalised his country in Asia
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

^^^^^

Seems Blinken's first bakra for his sub-national dept has been snagged.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

+1
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

NRao wrote:^^^^^

Seems Blinken's first bakra for his sub-national dept has been snagged.
Having said that, two - whom I consider to be pro-Russians - have questioned if Putin is a war time President. Based on Putin's reluctance to follow or consider the advice of his experts on a timely manner.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Putin is the best head of state on the planet except for NaMo. No other leader comes close. If some pro-Russian folks are not happy with Putin I'd question their judgement, not Putin's.

Doesn't mean he is perfect, but while his experts advice him on their areas of expertise, having taken on the collective west and engaged in mortal combat, Putin will have to balance multiple sets of considerations and consequences.

He seems quite at ease doing it, extremely sharp even in 4 hours of speech & QnA like we saw recently. Those unhappy with him can take refuge in Biden :P
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Zelensky: 'We are ready for peace, a peace for all of Ukraine'

:roll:
During a visit to the recently liberated Kherson on Nov. 14, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine is ready for peace, but a peace for all of its territories, which is why it continues operations to liberate the occupied areas.

"We respect international law and the sovereignty of every state, and now we are talking about the sovereignty of our state. That is why we are fighting against Russian aggression," Zelensky said. "We are not interested in the territory of other countries. We are only interested in the de-occupation of our country and our territories."

Western media earlier reported that the West may be trying to push Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow. According to the Wall Street Journal, senior U.S. and EU officials are divided on the need to push Ukraine into peace talks, however, they believe that an opportunity for negotiations may appear in the coming weeks or months.

Kyiv denied facing any pressure from the West regarding peace talks.

Zelensky paid a visit to Kherson, a regional capital in the south of Ukraine, three days after its liberation. Russia's withdrawal from the city marked a humiliating defeat, as Kherson was its biggest gain since the beginning of the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24.

Supposedly:
* CIA chief Burns meets with Russia's Naryshkin in Turkey
* Yellen to sanction all clients of Russian MIC
* EU to declare Russia a sponsor of terrorism or something close
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