Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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IndraD
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

mutterings on media CIA chief told Russian counterpart, use nukes and we will finish you, not joking, this is what NYT etc have reported https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/14/worl ... clear.html CIA chief meets Russian counter part in Turkey :rotfl:
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

I am surprised crypto currency mega fraud has not been reported here so far directly funding democrats, money rerouted from Ukraine

https://twitter.com/ben_kew/status/1591 ... unJZoTUCBg FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried bankrolled the Democratic Party's midterms war chest to the sum of $40,000,000 using funds from his now-bankrupt crypto exchange. Meanwhile, blameless customers have likely lost BILLIONS in savings.
This is the SCANDAL everyone should be talking about!

Sam Bankman-Fried’s fall cuts off big source of funds for US Democrats https://archive.ph/8FX5V (FT)
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

The US has always had a bogeyman to hate. During the cold war twas Russians (they are coming to get us). Next it turned its wrath against the mideast - Iraq, Iran, Libya, Afghanistan. Now it is back to them Russians. Wyatt believes that repressed racism in US needs an outlet to hate.

Nato vs Russia is well understood in Russia. There are soldiers speaking American dialects, white/black/hispanic backgrounds. BTW Nato wants a long grinding war as long as the MICs are around (a good war is good for the economy). Nato wants to breakup Russia (balkanization). Thinktank Stratfor has gamed the following: Russian resources + European (Germany mainly) industrial clout. Post WW-2, the US wanted to prevent USSR+Germany embrace. Effectively, the US wants to de-industrialize Euros. The Nordstream blowup points towards this objective. Madam Nuland has said, "f-you germany".

Russia is putting together 30 divisions to fight Ukraine.

Liu Sivaya with Gonzalo & Wyatt
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »


CIA has confirmed 101th coup to dislodge Putin
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vijayk »

IndraD wrote:I am surprised crypto currency mega fraud has not been reported here so far directly funding democrats, money rerouted from Ukraine

https://twitter.com/ben_kew/status/1591 ... unJZoTUCBg FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried bankrolled the Democratic Party's midterms war chest to the sum of $40,000,000 using funds from his now-bankrupt crypto exchange. Meanwhile, blameless customers have likely lost BILLIONS in savings.
This is the SCANDAL everyone should be talking about!

Sam Bankman-Fried’s fall cuts off big source of funds for US Democrats https://archive.ph/8FX5V (FT)
This is exactly why it was not reported
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by YashG »

Russia is badly done now in Ukraine.

In what ways can a op#1 humiliating retreat from Ukraine can be better than #op2 nuke attack ?

Power: Putin will likely loose power in both cases.
Isolation: Will be only mildly isolated in #1 vis-a-vis #2 total intl pariah.
Death/Imprisonment: Putin will be tried in courts in both cases given his govt. falls. But in case #2 his trial and punishment will be lot faster, #1 He will be slowly incarcerated till death he has no political value.
New Govt. : In #2 New govt will be most likely be installed & controlled by Europe/US.
Economic Control: Russian economy will become subservient to China in #1 but to Europe in #2, given above. Europe will do a lot better with unbridled access to Russian natural resources.

For Putin both scenarios look bad. #1 only slightly less bad than #2. But for West #2 looks much better. So what will they choose ?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

^^
are these posts for real? what is assurance a nuclear attack will remain isolated and not involve Europe/US with MAD consequences? Beggars belief that nuclear war is being seen as defeat of one side!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Y. Kanan »

IndraD wrote:^^
are these posts for real? what is assurance a nuclear attack will remain isolated and not involve Europe/US with MAD consequences? Beggars belief that nuclear war is being seen as defeat of one side!
The US knows it can "win" a nuclear war with Russia. They'd lose tens of millions but Russia would be utterly annihilated. The western elites WANT this nuclear war to occur, but they can't be seen as having started it. Thus the policy of never negotiating with Russia and never allowing Ukraine to stop fighting. They want to keep Russia stuck until they have no choice but to use nukes. This is the "Great Reset" we've been hearing about.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

Y. Kanan wrote:The US knows it can "win" a nuclear war with Russia. They'd lose tens of millions but Russia would be utterly annihilated. The western elites WANT this nuclear war to occur, but they can't be seen as having started it. Thus the policy of never negotiating with Russia and never allowing Ukraine to stop fighting. They want to keep Russia stuck until they have no choice but to use nukes. This is the "Great Reset" we've been hearing about.
:-? :roll:
common sense dictates, nuclear war where west loses 'millions' is unthinkable even if later part of this delusional reset is to be believed. Kindly tell me a reason west will indulge in a nuclear war losing millions (population of many european country actually) against Russia. Even Chernobyl was a scare for sissy US.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

Y. Kanan wrote:The US knows it can "win" a nuclear war with Russia.
Sorry, this is BS. The nuclear doctrines of USA/Russia point to MAD. In fact Russia has an option after first strike to conduct total annihilation of targets it has chosen, a priori, despite losing all their major cities and its leaders including Putin. It will be destruction of the world as we know it. The loose talk on Nukes is by over-stretched hormones in people with blabbering mouths whose collective IQ does not pass 1 st grade in school.

The leaders on both sides have ruled out nuke exchange. The current war in Ukr is being prolonged by both sides. For Rus it is about Nato creep and its original ethnic Russians being subjugated. For the US it is systematic destruction of Europe (especially Germany) and also bolsters the US MIC. All the rest are side shows and one can claim some advantage here and there. The conflict clearly delineates to the world certain basic assumptions and the attendant flaws of having it denied on a whim. In all of this, the fungibility of so called alliances/friendship is exposed.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by pravula »

Russian missiles cross into Poland during strike on Ukraine

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 1b52ff9d52
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

https://twitter.com/MinnesoTED/status/1 ... 3lpc2kbvWg Time for the United States to show them why we don't have good schools or univsal health care. :rotfl:
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

On Poland missile strikes:

1. Russia says no strikes on Poland
Russia has not carried out any strikes against targets near the Polish-Ukrainian border, the defense ministry in Moscow said on Tuesday, following reports of a missile striking the village of Przewodow and killing two civilians. Missile fragments, photos of which were published by Polish media outlets on the scene, “have nothing to do with Russian weapons,” the Russian Defense Ministry said.

2. Pentagon cannot confirm
“I can tell you that we don't have any information at this time to corroborate those reports and are looking into this further,” Ryder said, vowing to provide an update on the situation when the US is better informed about the incident. When pressed by journalists on an earlier AP report, citing a US intelligence official and claiming it was Russian missiles that had struck Poland, Ryder once again insisted that the Pentagon has “no information to corroborate” such reports but is “looking into it.”

3. Poland cannot confirm
The Polish authorities did not confirm these reports, while government spokesman Piotr Mueller called on media and the public “not to publish unconfirmed information.”
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Alexander Mercouris reports:

* Lavrov met with both the Chancellor of Germany Scholz and the President of France Macron
* Modi's "Not the era of war" is to be the focus of the final communique at the G-20
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vinod »

Y. Kanan wrote:
The US knows it can "win" a nuclear war with Russia.
What "win" exactly would it look like?

US is currently the sole super power with huge dominantion in many fields. They have built beautiful cities and have a very high standard of living. Why should they sacrifice those for complete domination of nuclear waste land? If anything, its west that has accumulated wealth over past few centuries by slavery, colonisation, and imperialism that has a lot to lose in a nuclear war.

So, US's main objective is maintain the supremacy by conflicts but keep below the threshold of MAD of nuclear war.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

Y. Kanan wrote: Snip....
Thus the policy of never negotiating with Russia and never allowing Ukraine to stop fighting. They want to keep Russia stuck until they have no choice but to use nukes. This is the "Great Reset" we've been hearing about.
This has some merits. However, the short-sighted and suicidal it might be from the western POV.

The way out of the mess from Russian POV would be conduct a complete missile test with the nuclear weapon with atmospheric detonation of the live warhead.

And then issue an ultimatum to the west in the following terms.

Accept our terms for Ukraine.

Or else, because Ukraine is an existential issue for us. On such and such date. We will all go up in a nuclear mushroom. It's your decision, if Ukraine is worth the ending of your countries. Because Ukraine in NATO is going to be the end of ours.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

There is no Ukraine.

US has been back-channeling as they always do - Afghanistan, Vietnam, .... cutting a deal with Russia.

Seems Ukrain's value was through FTX.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Lisa »

UN calls for Russia to pay reparations. How did countries vote?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/ ... tries-vote

Perfect. We now need to organise the same for colonisation and illegal war in Iraq and see how the same vote, particularly as Ukraine had sent troops to Iraq.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/15928239 ... wOzi0tGfAA

Ru & US praise each other for downplaying missile landing in Poland. Bad news for Ukraine & their Shah Rukh Khan.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chetak »

IndraD wrote:https://twitter.com/AFP/status/15928239 ... wOzi0tGfAA

Ru & US praise each other for downplaying missile landing in Poland. Bad news for Ukraine & their Shah Rukh Khan.
never short of macabre wit on the net
India, the world leader on launching missiles accidentally into enemy nations, should step in immediately and advice Russia and Poland on how to navigate this dangerous situation

Understandably, NATO seems keen to avoid any direct confrontation with the russkis and that the UKR pappu is also quite intent on provoking a direct confrontation.

Biden baba stepped in quite smartly to absolve the russkis.

where does this leave the UKR pappu now
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chetak »

Lisa wrote:UN calls for Russia to pay reparations. How did countries vote?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/ ... tries-vote

Perfect. We now need to organise the same for colonisation and illegal war in Iraq and see how the same vote, particularly as Ukraine had sent troops to Iraq.

Lisa ji,

Don't forget the colonization reparations sweepstakes


India's claim of $145 trillion should put us far ahead of all the others in the reparations Q and quieten the hoi polloi racists running the EU/UK and the US.

Calculations for the ravages done by portugal, dutch and the french colonial pickpockets have not yet been quantified by the Indians.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chetak »

yellen says

India can buy as much Russian oil as it wants, Yellen says.

The caveat: it can't use Western insurance, finance and maritime services
.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

Even Poland is claiming the following:
Poland says missile that hit it likely from Ukraine air defence
“There is nothing, absolutely nothing to suggest that it was an intentional attack on Poland,” Polish President Andrzej Duda said.
https://www.thehindu.com/news/internati ... 144544.ece
Poland said on Wednesday there is “absolutely no indication” that a missile which came down in Polish farmland, killing two people, was an intentional attack on the NATO country, and that neighbour Ukraine likely launched the Soviet-era projectile as it fended off a Russian air assault that savaged its power grid.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by eklavya »

chetak wrote:
yellen says

India can buy as much Russian oil as it wants, Yellen says.

The caveat: it can't use Western insurance, finance and maritime services
.
China has been buying discounted Iranian crude on the black market for years. These measures will reduce the demand for and price of Russian barrels; buyers need to organise shipping and insurance; it’s been flagged for months, so I expect importers have been organising alternatives. There are no restrictions on exporting refined products derived from imported Russian barrels. Plenty of upside potential for Indian refiners.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

The Yellen dictate is designed specifically for India. And, it should bite India. Modi addressed it in his speech - that one should not slow down the world's fastest-growing economy.

I doubt India or Russia have the resources to replace Western services in such a short time period.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by eklavya »

India doesn’t need Western markets for insurance. As for ships, if India need Western ships, Russia will have to sell the oil below the price cap set by the G7 and Australia. Even this would be primarily symbolic, I expect. There is always the ability to pay the difference on some other contract. Circumvention of sanctions is illegal, but the side payments will be impossible to police.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chetak »

NRao wrote:The Yellen dictate is designed specifically for India. And, it should bite India. Modi addressed it in his speech - that one should not slow down the world's fastest-growing economy.

I doubt India or Russia have the resources to replace Western services in such a short time period.
any shipping company or insurance/reinsurance company moving oil for India will be blacklisted and they will become untouchable for normal trade thereafter.

So Indian/russki/cheeni/eyeranian and other countries will have to deploy their own ships to help India out.

not many will do so or even have the means to do so/or be willing to do so....
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by eklavya »

The west is not trying to take Russian barrels out of the market altogether. If they do that, India will have to buy from OPEC and drive up the “international” oil price further, which will also hurt western consumers. What the West is trying to do is reduce Russia’s revenues from selling its oil. This is a problem for Russia, not India. For India, it’s an opportunity to buy discounted crude.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

The West has no idea what they are doing:

* None of the nations participating in the sanctions are at war with Russia - making the sanctions illegal. Yup
* (So too the grab of Russian reserves)
* There is nothing called "circumventing" illegal sanctions
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Unrelated. How diplomacy works. Hot mic

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by eklavya »

NRao wrote:The West has no idea what they are doing:

* None of the nations participating in the sanctions are at war with Russia - making the sanctions illegal. Yup
* (So too the grab of Russian reserves)
* There is nothing called "circumventing" illegal sanctions
National governments in the West can and will bring enforcement actions under their own sanction laws E.g. the penalty for violating sanctions in the U.S. can include prison sentence of up to 30 years.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

eklavya wrote:
NRao wrote:The West has no idea what they are doing:

* None of the nations participating in the sanctions are at war with Russia - making the sanctions illegal. Yup
* (So too the grab of Russian reserves)
* There is nothing called "circumventing" illegal sanctions
National governments in the West can and will bring enforcement actions under their own sanction laws E.g. the penalty for violating sanctions in the U.S. can include prison sentence of up to 30 years.
Operative words: "own sanction laws".

In a global environment, they are illegal.

But, colonial mentality still exists
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vinod »

eklavya wrote:The west is not trying to take Russian barrels out of the market altogether. If they do that, India will have to buy from OPEC and drive up the “international” oil price further, which will also hurt western consumers. What the West is trying to do is reduce Russia’s revenues from selling its oil. This is a problem for Russia, not India. For India, it’s an opportunity to buy discounted crude.
In theory, it sounds good. Why should India squeeze a friend by "quoting" their enemies? Russia is offering good discounts anyway. So, I doubt it will ever be brought up and will play by market rules instead.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

Eva K Bartlett, a Canadian freelance journalist, war correspondent and human rights activist with extensive travel experience in Gaza, Syria and Ukraine. She is currently reporting from Donetsk covering the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by eklavya »

NRao wrote:
eklavya wrote:
National governments in the West can and will bring enforcement actions under their own sanction laws E.g. the penalty for violating sanctions in the U.S. can include prison sentence of up to 30 years.
Operative words: "own sanction laws".

In a global environment, they are illegal.

But, colonial mentality still exists
US sanctions laws apply to US persons. If you are happy to do your business without dealing with US persons or using the US financial system, US laws are not a consideration. But the reality is that they bite worldwide given the global reach of the US economy and financial system.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by eklavya »

vinod wrote:
eklavya wrote:The west is not trying to take Russian barrels out of the market altogether. If they do that, India will have to buy from OPEC and drive up the “international” oil price further, which will also hurt western consumers. What the West is trying to do is reduce Russia’s revenues from selling its oil. This is a problem for Russia, not India. For India, it’s an opportunity to buy discounted crude.
In theory, it sounds good. Why should India squeeze a friend by "quoting" their enemies? Russia is offering good discounts anyway. So, I doubt it will ever be brought up and will play by market rules instead.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created global growth headwinds, energy and food price inflation, and recessionary pressures. This is impacting demand for India’s exports and a rising current account deficit (significantly impacted by oil prices). Discounted crude from Russia offsets only part of this negative impact. The bigger the discount, the better for India. G7 rules that reduce demand for Russian crude reduces its market price. Russia would happily charge India a higher price if they could.

https://www.livemint.com/economy/global ... 74163.html
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 429575.cms
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chetak »

One wonders from where India could have learned such pragmatism and political practicality, especially when dealing with the global fall out of a fight far away, and one in which India had no dog....

could it have been from the two poles of a world that was only recently bipolar but started to seriously splinter after one of these poles ran out of afghanistan and the other pole ran out of money

these perverted and colonial leftover cockatoos like @DerekJGrossman are still pushing "values" for the browns and big time profits for the "whites" with not even a pretence of the slightest moral scrutiny of their own actions

@DerekJGrossman· Oct 2

For those who thought after Modi’s verbal lashing of Putin two weeks back that India would vote differently this time around, think again. As I keep saying, Modi and his govt are ultra-realist on foreign policy. Values hold almost no place. Only interests.

https://thehindu.com/news/national/anal ... 2.ece/amp/
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created global growth headwinds, energy and food price inflation, and recessionary pressures. This is impacting demand for India’s exports and a rising current account deficit (significantly impacted by oil prices). Discounted crude from Russia offsets only part of this negative impact.
Funny how these “global headwinds” have not impacted the bottom lines of corporations yet. American oil companies are making billions in profits. American billionaires are getting richer and richer.

Ah, yes these head winds are for others onleee and hence must toe the Western line onlee
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vijayk »

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/17/india/mo ... index.html
G20’s criticism of Russia shows the rise of a new Asian power. And it isn’t China
“Today’s era must not be of war,” it said, echoing what Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Russian leader Vladimir Putin during a face-to-face meeting in September.

Media and officials in the country of 1.3 billion were quick to claim the inclusion as a sign that the world’s largest democracy had played a vital role in bridging differences between an increasingly isolated Russia, and the United States and its allies.

“How India united G20 on PM Modi’s idea of peace,” ran a headline in the Times of India, the country’s largest English-language paper. “The Prime Minister’s message that this is not the era of war… resonated very deeply across all the delegations and helped bridge the gap across different parties,” India’s Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra told reporters Wednesday.



https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 566030.cms
India emerged as a consensus builder at G20, says Amitabh Kant
"India emerged as a leader, solution provider, and consensus builder through its positive and constructive approach," Kant said. "Communique strongly endorses PM Modi's emphasis on three salient...
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