Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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IndraD
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

librandu rags using G20 summit to attack Putin from Modi's shoulder.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

There is an interesting clip of Elensky saying that Ukraine is not responsible for the missile that landed in Poland (around 7.00) and now wanting end of war & therefore peace ( around 1:00) ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccyYLH9Xprw
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

15 minutes long:

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Lisa »

Deleted as I was wrong
Last edited by Lisa on 19 Nov 2022 18:54, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by eklavya »

^^^
Lisa-ji, the link is going to a document issued before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Here is the text of the leaders’ declaration:

https://mea.gov.in/Uploads/PublicationD ... r_2022.pdf

Extract:
3. This year, we have also witnessed the war in Ukraine further adversely impact the global economy. There was a discussion on the issue. We reiterated our national positions as expressed in other fora, including the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly, which, in Resolution No. ES-11/1 dated 2 March 2022, as adopted by majority vote (141 votes for, 5 against, 35 abstentions, 12 absent) deplores in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine and demands its complete and unconditional withdrawal from the territory of Ukraine. Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy – constraining growth, increasing inflation, disrupting supply chains, heightening energy and food insecurity, and elevating financial stability risks. There were other views and different assessments of the situation and sanctions. Recognizing that the G20 is not the forum to resolve security issues, we acknowledge that security issues can have significant consequences for the global economy.

4. It is essential to uphold international law and the multilateral system that safeguards peace and stability. This includes defending all the Purposes and Principles enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations and adhering to international humanitarian law, including the protection of civilians and infrastructure in armed conflicts. The use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible. The peaceful resolution of conflicts, efforts to address crises, as well as diplomacy and dialogue, are vital. Today’s era must not be of war.
Last edited by eklavya on 19 Nov 2022 18:16, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

European Parliament Set To Designate Russia A "Terrorist State" https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/ ... 8/7150939/
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vijayk »



Another perspective
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

^^^^^

And, it is all Putin's fault. :rotfl:
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by vijayk »

NRao wrote:^^^^^

And, it is all Putin's fault. :rotfl:
Actually he blames it all on US
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

One of the scenarios that many wanted is a blitzkrieg of Ukr by Rus and a quick takeover of Ukr. However war is a means to a political end and Rus would have been savagely demolished by the West in terms of sentiment and opinion (which they have to some extent even today). Using this ruse the West would have justified WW-3 and the ramifications of that are all well known. Rus played it smart by not appearing to be greedy in its war objectives by setting up a special military operation for its objectives in Ukr. This slow grind has settled in and the world has been caught in a new dilemma which they never expected. The ramifications of this strategy is steady degradation of the west's economy. Many of the schemes the west initiated, like sanctions, have backfired spectacularly. A new rearrangement of "world order" is inevitable. There is a major reset in certain assumptions that the world was taking for granted.

For India, the lessons learnt are many - in terms of resources, world politics, commerce and war. For war on a sustained basis, a good supply of ammo, missiles is a must with sound air defense. The introduction of drones into warfare is another lesson for India. All this points to one thing for India - it has to take an independent path, create its own supply chains, weapons, think out of the box in terms of its own defense and create products that are appropriate for war use. No nation will come to its aid during a crisis and having important allies for world opinion counts a lot.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Some data points that may be of interest to this thread:

Per Kyle Bass, from 2 months ago:

* China's housing is down 30% and could reflect as much as "3 points" (I am assuming this to mean 3 points on the GDP)
* If China published actual/real numbers, their GDP should be around 0%
* AT peak (2021), in tier 1 cities, the median house price was 36 times the median income. In the US at its worst, it was 6x and that was considered terrible
* Because of its demographic profile, the decline instead of a steady decline is a falling off a cliff
* Westerners holders of bonds can kiss any returns goodbye

* War between the US and China to be "sooner" in the next 2 years, instead of the 2026/27 time frame

* China is serious about Taiwan - military action-wise. But, per Kyle, IF China were to invade Taiwan the Chinese economy would tank

* Same with South Korea on the demographic topic

* Expect a serious recession in the US (next year) and a very deep recession in Europe at the same time
* US will recover to a baseline recovery, but not Europe
* He expects energy bills in Europe (at the producer's end)(non-subsidized) to be 12x
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chanakyaa »

@NRao, Kyle Bass is such a character,...if you watch his videos from 10 yrs ago, you will notice, his msg hasn't changed, but agree with the numbers. Whenever financial media needs China basher KB descends like an angle. More importantly, about the point you have raised, there definitely seems to be lot going on below the surface before the volcanic eruption (i.e. shift to multipolarity), using Ookraine theatre as a front (more below...)
vijayk wrote:...
Another perspective
thanks for posting that video. Simon Hunt had a similar video in November 2021, and the msg has been consistent.

Do watch this information videos on "A Collapse In Fiat Currencies Within The Next 2 Years? | Alasdair Macleod" (especially 55min after on gold, and why its value was kept down for decades, and how Asia stands to benefit)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP108NVGTmI

All this information suggests that the chatter on shift away from currency economic system as we know it is no longer a loose talk. In Ookraine, there appears to some tacit understanding, about not letting the conflict go out of control, and use Ookraine theatre to bring about the change. YeeYou and its currency is looking more like the sacrificial lamb. If RIC takes the gavel, the only way uncle can minimize the damage to itself is by completely weakening YeeYou as a competition. But, lot depends on the continuation of present leadership (next 2-3 will be interesting).
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

Anything the Brits touch in the world is a disaster of immense proportions. Here is another example.

Germany wanted Ukraine to ‘fold’ to Russia – Johnson
https://www.rt.com/russia/567017-german ... t-johnson/
Prior to the conflict, Berlin believed a long conflict would be a disaster, the former UK prime minister says. According to the former prime minister, “the German view was at one stage that if it were going to happen, which would be a disaster, then it would be better for the whole thing to be over quickly, and for Ukraine to fold.” He added that this attitude was supported by “all sorts of sound economic reasons”.

Johnson went on to say that the French leadership was “in denial right up until the last moment” on Russia’s plans to send troops into Ukraine, while the Italian authorities were “simply saying that they would be unable to support” the position embraced by other Western countries, given their “massive” dependence on Russian energy.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by eklavya »

Ukraine war: How Germany ended reliance on Russian gas
"Energy security for this winter is guaranteed," the Chancellor Olaf Scholz told MPs in the German parliament on Wednesday morning.

Not only are the country's gas stores full; the result, in part, of a frantic - and expensive - buying operation on the world's markets.

But, up on Germany's windswept North Sea coast, engineers have just finished building - in record time - the country's very first import terminal for liquified natural gas (LNG).

And five other LNG terminals are planned. Most should be completed next year.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

NRao wrote:15 minutes long:
<<Duran segment on India-Russia trade>>
though not incorrect, somewhat simplistic if not superficial understanding of India by Duran I feel.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

eklavya wrote:Ukraine war: How Germany ended reliance on Russian gas
"Energy security for this winter is guaranteed," the Chancellor Olaf Scholz told MPs in the German parliament on Wednesday morning.

Not only are the country's gas stores full; the result, in part, of a frantic - and expensive - buying operation on the world's markets.

But, up on Germany's windswept North Sea coast, engineers have just finished building - in record time - the country's very first import terminal for liquified natural gas (LNG).

And five other LNG terminals are planned. Most should be completed next year.
Some of the remaining parts of the same article:
The most important part of the terminal - a 'floating storage and regasification unit' (FSRU) - has yet to moor up. The FSRU, which is essentially a specialised ship upon which the LNG is converted back to its gas state, will be leased at a reported 200,000 euros (£172,732) a day.

But, within weeks, tankers from countries like the US, Norway or the Emirates could deliver their cargoes here to the port of Wilhelmshaven. The terminal's operator, Uniper, which is now almost entirely controlled by the German government, is coy about its suppliers but insists that contracts are in place.

And five other LNG terminals are planned. Most should be completed next year.

German industry is depending on it.

"If we don't get any gas, we have to shut down the oven," says Ernst Buchow as we stand in his brick factory a half hour drive from Wilhelmshaven.

The bricks he produces must be fired in a giant kiln at temperatures of up to 1,200C (2,192F). He hopes, one day, to transition to green hydrogen but says that will take time. For now, he's wholly reliant on a steady supply of gas.

"It's not just the politicians' fault. Industry wanted the Russian gas contracts." {Because the Russian gas came in around 1/4th the price}

Just a year ago those contracts provided Germany with 60% of its gas, much of it via the Nordstream pipeline from Russia. The government was still anticipating - albeit in the face of significant political and public opposition - the opening of the Nordstream 2 pipeline which would have doubled the amount of Russian gas coming into Europe via Germany.

Today, according to the federal energy network agency, Germany's managing without Russian gas. But, to avoid shortages over the winter, its experts say LNG terminals must come online at the start of next year and that gas consumption must be reduced by 20%.

Just getting to this point may be considered a huge national achievement. But it comes at a cost.

Germany's an economic heavyweight; what it wants, it often gets. Its new-found appetite for liquified natural gas is intensifying global demand.

And that may place other, poorer countries, like Bangladesh and Pakistan, in a vulnerable position. {Yup}

"You have a whole bunch of countries - emerging economies notably - that are priced out of the market and can no longer source the LNG that they need," says Professor Andreas Goldthau from the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy.

They "have less of a purchasing power than the Europeans have and, notably, the Germans."

That, he warns, leaves them prone to blackouts and may also increase their reliance on "dirtier" fossil fuels like coal.

And what of Germany's own ambitions for a greener future? LNG is, after all, a fossil fuel.

Everyone involved in the Wilhelmshaven project are quick to insist that LNG is a "transitional" fuel.

Uniper has promised to build infrastructure to handle green hydrogen alongside the LNG terminal. That's fuelled ambitious plans in Wilhelmshaven's town hall. The mayor, Carsten Feist, says the LNG terminal won't bring many badly needed jobs to the town. But his plans for a green energy hub would.

"So much of the energy transformation that we need to achieve so that our planet has an habitable climate in fifty or a hundred years' time, so much of what's necessary here in Germany, will happen in and through Wilhelmshaven."

Perhaps the most striking cost is the literal one.

Those six LNG terminals are costing the government more than six billion euros. By their own admission, that's well over double what ministers had initially budgeted and it may rise further next year.

This country learned too late the value of a secure energy supply. It's paying for it now.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Cyrano wrote:
NRao wrote:15 minutes long:
<<Duran segment on India-Russia trade>>
though not incorrect, somewhat simplistic if not superficial understanding of India by Duran I feel.
Yes, but we are in an era of propaganda warfare. Logic has no place.

Besides, The Duran is using India to prop up Russia
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

They have done it.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-decl ... terrorism/
The move is largely symbolic as the EU currently cannot officially designate states as sponsors of terrorism. Unlike the U.S., the bloc does not have a list of terrorist states and lacks a legal definition of the consequences of such a declaration.

The Parliament is therefore urging the EU and its member states to “put in place the proper legal framework and consider adding Russia to such a list.”
...
The EU resolution, however, calls for further isolation of Russia internationally by stripping it of its membership in international organizations and bodies, reducing diplomatic ties with Russia to the absolute minimum and adopting a ninth sanctions package.
EU has gone nuts, with such abrasive mentalities no wonder they had countless conflicts over the ages and 2 WWs in the last century. But this time I think they are mortified that the period of relative peace post WW2 and prosperity for half a century, both tenuously held together by the EU is now tottering. And since they think they are powerless to confront Massa on it, they "instead of taking it to their heart and breaking up with Massa, are taking it in their hand" by pouring it all out on Russia. Tsk tsk....
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

and taking frustration out on countries they can, this time qatar ..entire EU UK media is full of reports there is nothing right with Qtr, these are the same people who gifted WC to desert. Now they view Qtr as ally of opec plus Iran ally, so their frustration/anger has no limits

PS Hope EU has stopped buying oil gas completely from terrorist state
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Y. Kanan »

Look at the economic cost Europeans have brought upon themselves. In the midst of all this, why aren't they asking: wouldn't it have been easier to just NOT expand NATO?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

As long as you have financial institutions, banks, insurers, markets in your grip, you can keep creating wampum money out of thin air, manipulate currency exchange rates and recoup such costs over a decade or so...

Meanwhile if they can topple Putin and lay hands on Russian resources, the payback will be 100x

That's what Europe is counting on. It's something they've done rather successfully for over 3 centuries in Asia,, Africa, Americas.

But this time they lit the fire closer to home, with a Russia (and Ukraine) that can take more pain than anyone and still hit back.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ks_sachin »

Y. Kanan wrote:Look at the economic cost Europeans have brought upon themselves. In the midst of all this, why aren't they asking: wouldn't it have been easier to just NOT expand NATO?
Ideology over reason!!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

How Germany ended reliance on Russian gas
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63709352
Not only are the country's gas stores full; the result, in part, of a frantic - and expensive - buying operation on the world's market

as per BBC Germany doesn't need Russian gas anymore. Any other point of view?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

The German gas reserves IIRC will last for 3 or 4 months, max to tide over this winter. Read somewhere that they have also built the first LNG terminal on the Baltic coast and expect to build more in the coming year.
The price of LNG will be several times what Germany paid until now. EU has passed a law to stop LNG trading if it exceeds a predetermined threshold for a continuous period. So the scrambling is on.
Despite all this, German industry and people will be hit by high cost of gas, supply uncertainty for foreseeable future. Other EU countries with less money to throw at the problem will suffer more.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chetak »

ks_sachin wrote:
Y. Kanan wrote:Look at the economic cost Europeans have brought upon themselves. In the midst of all this, why aren't they asking: wouldn't it have been easier to just NOT expand NATO?
Ideology over reason!!
They have been sucker punched by the amerikis who are sitting very pretty with their own vast resources of oil/gas and are now also in domination of the european energy markets using the ameriki imposed sanctions to leverage ameriki sales of energy.

The added bonus of massive sales of weapons by the US MIC is also making the amerikis very happy. Big sales, bigger the campaign contributions....

The EU and ukr have been thrown under the bus while for the US it's all win win so far. The forthcoming price cap will further aggravate the already high energy prices.

the real kweschun one should be asking is why are the amerikis doing this and the bigger mystery is why are the europeans following like a docile flock of sheep, especially when the unpopular shepherd is sitting pretty, tens of thousands of miles away.

It is not only about NATO expansion, not when ukr is being headed by a comical puppet like zelenskyy who is the fall guy. Who is waiting in the wings in mother russia like pappu is impatiently waiting in India

EU partners are already beginning to spar with each other about how the energy hardship is to be handled after germany announces euro 200 billions subsidy for germans to help cushion high energy prices

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022 ... ion-high-g
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

EU doesn't like Hungary govt, will withhold Bs of $$ unless it becomes less corrupt country
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022 ... om-hungary
It is currently blocking the EU's adoption of a global corporate tax agreed by more than 130 countries last year and announced on Thursday morning that it would veto the European Commission's plan to issue common debt to raise €18 billion in assistance for Ukraine.

Balázs Orbán, Viktor Orban's political director, said that Budapest "will provide the €187 million to Ukraine that would be Hungary’s share of the planned €18 billion joint EU loan through bilateral means from the national budget, but not through another joint EU loan."
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

ks_sachin wrote:
Y. Kanan wrote:Look at the economic cost Europeans have brought upon themselves. In the midst of all this, why aren't they asking: wouldn't it have been easier to just NOT expand NATO?
Ideology over reason!!
The reasons why NATO expanded East are many, and they depend on who or which faction has been able to influence the sitting President of the US.

The first one was LM, who convinced Bill Clinton to move East - against the advice of many including Kisinger. LM was expecting sales of their equipment to die down and wanted customers. So, Clinton's administration sold the idea to Russia that the expansion does not mean NATO will station any NATO troops or equipment in the newly absorbed nations. (And, it helped a lot that Bill/Hillary was and are extremely corrupt people.)

Somewhere along the way, the Neo (Conservatives and Liberals) took over. They have always had this vision of dominating the globe (much like the British did (there is a video on YT in which Gen Mattis (yes, the ex-DefSec) asks the question "how did the British with 22,000 British citizens control India for some 200+ years and the US was unable to control Iraq/Afghanistan/Syria/Lebanon/etc with much larger and powerful forces)).

Today it is the good old colonial idea of lording over areas to extract their natural resources for their own benefit. NATO is a tool to enforce their ability to lord over. And, even though Russians have stated multiple times that this is a NATO proxy war we still keep talking of Ukrainian BTGs, etc!! The Russian amby to the UN stated it clearly that the current missile attacks are to disrupt NATO arms supplies to the front - and, not to make the lives of anyone else miserable. Cut your arms supplies and Russia will stop the missile attacks.


BTW, the likes of Dr. John Meishiemer (of Univ of Chicago) have been saying this (that NATO/US is the issue and not Putin) since at least 2015. But, who listens?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chetak »

Johnson spilled the beans on CNN that Germany's Scholz had initially called on Kiev to surrender.

Crux is it's US which forced EU into war on the cost of its economy & meanwhile Britain purchasing #Russian_oil.

Putin won't compromise on the cost of Russia, West knows it.

Watch Video
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

In other areas of conflict:

* Kosovo will not check the license plate - thus averting a conflict in the region with Serbia (EU wants Serbians to merge into Eu, which the current leaders in Serbia are opposed to)
* The City of Odessa has decided to dismantle the statue of Empress Catherine the Great - the founder of the city!!
* Kurds on their own - US decides not to support them. Turkey (especially after the blast in Ankara) has a special mil op and Iran is close to deciding to attack the Kurds. Possibly altering the balance in the Syrian region
*


* G7 eyes oil price cap of $65-70. However, Poland (which is not part of the G7) calls it a joke and wants the price at $30.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

Gulf erupts in joy after Iran defeats Wales, even commentators had to say, unusual celebrations around due to political situation we are living in
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

FYI, on "Neocons".

Neocon takeover of EU nears completion w/Glenn Diesen. 3 days ago. 1 hr. 45 mins long.

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

India must be cautious in dealing with US: Ex-Army chief Bikram Singh
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 766140.cms
25 Nov 2022
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

What a total disregard for visas to family and kin, ownership of pizza chains, beachside villas, golf clubs memberships and obese offshore accounts ityaadi displayed by our ex Army Chief. His counterparts next door must be laughing their guts out !
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

JS lays it out like it its, especially the segment from 18:40 - superb clarity of mind
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by V_Raman »

World will celebrate like never if/when anglo/saxons fall IMO. will be equivalent to Narakasura getting slayed.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

FYI. Dynamics of the G7 oil cap. A day old video.

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

V_Raman wrote:World will celebrate like never if/when anglo/saxons fall IMO. will be equivalent to Narakasura getting slayed.
world will be a safer place if voting system becomes full proof in US (voting with ID)
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Well, Project Ukraine is under scrutiny:

Europe accuses US of profiting from war

Ultimate gyan:
EU officials attack Joe Biden over sky-high gas prices, weapons sales and trade as Vladimir Putin’s war threatens to destroy Western unity.
And, it is Putin's fault:
Nine months after invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is beginning to fracture the West.
Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration and now accuse the Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer.

“The fact is, if you look at it soberly, the country that is most profiting from this war is the U.S. because they are selling more gas and at higher prices, and because they are selling more weapons,” one senior official told POLITICO.
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