Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

[Rakesh]

No more tying up with the Russians (or anyone else) for weapons tech. That has never come and never will come.

The only viable goal ahead is buy off the shelf (where necessary) and focus on components towards Self Reliance. Everything else is a waste of time and money i.e. see the latest craziness in the MRFA thread.

[chetak]

Ukraine winery in area shelled by Russia wins gold at Decanter wine awards:

https://bit.ly/3aDduzW

Hard to tell if it's because they're good or they got bombed

[Rakesh]

^^^ Chetak

[Kati]

So for all practical purposes, Severodonetsk has fallen.

Zelensky Says Counter-Offensive to Recapture Severodonetsk Too Costly
https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-says- ... ly-1713297

Jake Thomas - Yesterday 7:43 PM, Newsweek, June 6, 2022

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that retaking Severodonetsk will come at a great cost of equipment and troops should the eastern Ukrainian city fall to Russian forces.

Zelensky on Monday made the remarks to reporters as Russian forces appear poised to capture the city amid heavy fighting, reports Ukrainian Pravda. The admission comes as Russian forces have made advances in Ukraine's eastern Luhansk region after being beaten back during an earlier phase of the conflict.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to take control of Luhansk, as well as the Donetsk region to the southwest, where Kremlin-backed separatists have declared breakaway republics along Ukraine's eastern border. Additionally, there are indications redeployed Russian troops are making gains in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in a Facebook post earlier Monday that Ukrainian troops maintain control over Severodonetsk.

Serhiy Haidai, head of the Luhansk military administration, said Monday on Telegram that the "situation in Severodonetsk has deteriorated somewhat." He said Ukrainian forces are holding positions in its industrial zone after recapturing half the city.

When asked if Ukrainian forces should withdraw from Severodonetsk, Zelensky told reporters that a counter-attack to retake the city would take five times more equipment and troops.

"If you go to the better positions, it will be very costly for you to return, in terms of the number of killed people, the number of losses," Zelensky said, according to Ukrainian Pravda. "If we decide to attack later, we will lose much more."

Zelensky said Ukrainian forces are holding Severodonetsk, and that both approaches held their own risks. Decisions will be made based on future developments, he said.


Russian forces are now "achieving tactical success" in Donbas, and could seize full control of Luhansk later this month, the U.K. Ministry of Defence concluded in an assessment of the conflict last week.

Oleksiy Danilov, Ukraine's secretary of the national security and defense council, said in an earlier interview with Financial Times that the country is in a "very difficult" fight against Russia in the Donbas region, suggesting that strategically ceding territory could help win the war.

"The temporary loss of territories is not a tragedy," he said, according to Financial Times. "The tragedy will be the loss of the country."

Haidai said in his Telegram post that shelling in Severodonetsk and nearby Lysychansk have increased tenfold. He said that other cities in the Luhansk region are facing a situation similar to Mariupol, a port city to the south that saw intense fighting and that Russia now says is under its control.

"Now the Russians are leveling Severodonetsk and Lysychansk," Haidai said.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Friday that Russia was achieving its goal of protecting people in the breakaway republics in Donetsk and Luhansk.

"Measures have been taken to ensure their protection," he said, according to Reuters.

Newsweek reached out to the Russian government for comment.

[Pratyush]

Ukraine winery in area shelled by Russia wins gold at Decanter wine awards:

https://bit.ly/3aDduzW

Hard to tell if it's because they're good or they got bombed

Why am I not surprised?

[Pratyush]

The Ukrainians are turning into masters of news speak.

The surrender of the steel plant was portrayed as an evacuation. This fall of the city is being portrayed as too costly to retake.

[NRao]

Guess who is making money tonight?

Goldman Sachs predicts $140 oil as gas prices spike near $5 a gallon

[NRao]

Things are spiraling out of control. Here is a rather mild article.

Aside: Medvedev is quoted by Tass using very crude language, in bad anger. Russian commentators are reporting that Russia has already decided not to communicate with the "combined West". The US Ambby (Trump era) has gone to the extent of stating that the West should not remove books by Russian author and music by Russian artists.

Don't close the embassy, US ambassador tells Russia

[NRao]

https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1 ... 0943987713

Russia & Turkey have reached a preliminary agreement on the supply of Ukrainian agricultural products through the Black Sea.

The Turkish military may also be involved in the demining of Ukrainian ports and water areas.
/Bloomberg/

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/ThePollLady/status/ ... SmyJQjQF8Q ---> The U.S. will ‘allow’ Venezuelan oil to be shipped to Europe by next month. The oil “will only go to Europe. It cannot be resold elsewhere.” This is the rule based order that the United States and European Union want to save.

US authorizes Repsol to ship oil from Venezuela to Europe
https://english.elpais.com/internationa ... urope.html
07 June 2022

A key condition of the arrangement, according to one of the sources, is that the oil received “has to go to Europe. It cannot be resold elsewhere.”

[Roop]

... are reporting that Russia has already decided not to communicate with the "combined West". The US Ambby (Trump era) has gone to the extent of stating that the West should not remove books by Russian author and music by Russian artists.

These so-called "combined West" countries are behaving like petty-minded chu*iyas in this war. It's one thing to have a diplomatic spat, but to wage war against Russian art, literature, athletes etc. is indescribably petty and infantile. Remember, these countries are not officially at war with Russia.

[NRao]

Duran (Alex and Alexander) reporting that:

* Turkey to tie her economy with Russian lot more
* Turkey is planning on replicating Indian model to import gas (India imports oil) and then re-export to EU


* Erdogan has reportedly told Putin that he will block Sweden/Finland entry into NATO

[NRao]

Anyone interested in nation building, an hour + long essentially a lecture on post WW2 ethnic cleansing in Europe, ME.

https://youtu.be/ljcVgK_EvP8

[bala]

... are reporting that Russia has already decided not to communicate with the "combined West". The US Ambby (Trump era) has gone to the extent of stating that the West should not remove books by Russian author and music by Russian artists.

These so-called "combined West" countries are behaving like petty-minded chu*iyas in this war. It's one thing to have a diplomatic spat, but to wage war against Russian art, literature, athletes etc. is indescribably petty and infantile. Remember, these countries are not officially at war with Russia.

This is an extension of the deep hatred fanned by the US Deep State and the UK Deep State. They create caricatures for others to follow. Putin is one, then the Russian culture and people, strife between Vatican and Orthodox churches of Russia and more. This is how hollywood movies are created, you create a villain for everyone to hate and you go about it systematically and ruthlessly. The only trouble is the actual Villains in the world are these Deep State actors, who are rank cowards.

[bala]

< Mod Note: Bala-ji, please do not post articles without links. Common Courtesy. I edited your post >

Moscow-based insurer Ingosstrakh to help India sidestep EU ban on tankers carrying Russian crude
https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes. ... l/92080613
date: 2022-06-08

Russia’s fourth largest insurer Ingosstrakh will play a key role in a mechanism put in place by India that allow its ports to continue receiving Russian crude oil when the ban agreed by the member states of the European Union on 31 May, prohibiting insurers from covering tankers carrying Russian oil anywhere in the world, comes into force. The insurance ban to be implemented in six months will be the most potent among the sanctions and trade restrictions rolled out by the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union against the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine as the West seeks to throttle a major source of revenue (from oil) for Moscow.India is looking to ramp up oil purchases from Russia to take advantage of heavily discounted supplies with ships and insurance arranged by Moscow. But insurance could become a problem due to local rules.

In shipping, third-party liabilities arising from operating ships such as oil pollution, wreck removal and damage to port property are commonly referred to as protection and indemnity (P&I) insurance. Globally, such third-party risks are insured with the International Group of Protection and Indemnity Clubs (IG Clubs), a 13-member group based in London that provides liability cover to about 95 per cent of the world’s ocean-going ships by capacity (tonnage), placing a $1-billion limit on individual claims that involve pollution damage and wreck removal. The EU ban will block insurers from covering ships carrying Russian oil. Russia hopes to circumvent the EU P&I ban through “state guarantees”, possibly in the importing nations, officials said. Ingosstrakh is among a list of 15 non-IG Clubs approved by India, whose liability cover against risks, including oil spills and collisions for foreign ships calling at India’s ports, will be accepted by the port authorities.

The approval to Ingosstrakh is valid till 20 February 2024, a government official said. The Merchant Shipping (Regulation of Entry of Ships into Ports, Anchorages and Offshore Facilities) Rules, 2012, which took effect from April 2012, makes it mandatory for foreign ships of 300 gross tonnage (GT) or more, entering the country’s ports to hold a valid third-party liability cover against maritime claims.Such third-party liability risks have to be insured either with the London and EU-based IG Clubs or such other insurance company authorized by the government, according to the rules. The rules were framed after the EU banned the purchase, transport, finance and insurance of Iranian oil from 1 July 2012, reacting to its nuclear program. Following the EU ban, IG Clubs have stopped providing third- party liability cover to ships hauling Iranian crude oil. Insurance Public Joint Stock Company Ingosstrakh has been operating in the international and domestic markets since 1947. Ingosstrakh, which was part of the (erstwhile) USSR Ministry of Finance, is the fourth largest insurance company in Russia by Direct Written Premium (DWP) with an extensive regional network. Ingosstrakh has four representative offices abroad in China, India, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/MJ_007Club/status/1 ... Oi81IoxaVw ---> Russia has offered India, a partnership in several Oil & Gas fields. Meaning Indian oil companies will now own the projects. Unlike Gulf, where we are a mere customer. Several O&G fields, which had EU partners, are being sold off at heavy discounts & Indian O&G's are buying them.

Centre to look at proposals for asset purchase in Russia if oil companies approach
https://www.livemint.com/industry/energ ... 25572.html
02 June 2022

[Lisa]

Moscow-based insurer Ingosstrakh to help India sidestep EU ban on tankers carrying Russian crude
https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes. ... l/92080613
date: 2022-06-08

Could somebody tell if there is a re-insurance market in India and if there is one, why are we asking a Russian company to help out?

[ldev]

Moscow-based insurer Ingosstrakh to help India sidestep EU ban on tankers carrying Russian crude
https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes. ... l/92080613
date: 2022-06-08

Could somebody tell if there is a re-insurance market in India and if there is one, why are we asking a Russian company to help out?

Russian crude is being paid for on a "as delivered" basis. The Russians are responsible for shipping and insurance. If the ship sinks before it reaches India nothing is payable. My guess is that it is being done to reduce the overall risk in what is a risky situation. To date, virtually all of the increase in Russian crude imports into India is accounted for by private sector refiners Reliance and Nayara(formerly Essar, now owned by Rosfneft and associated parties). Reliance in particular exports most of its refinery output and given the huge refinery spreads currently prevailing in the global market because of a shortage of refining capacity, Reliance will have some excellent net profits from their refinery operations.

As opposed to Reliance and Nayara the public sector oil companies will follow a formula to balance risk by sourcing from different countries as they have done historically. I don't think India has ever gone beyond importing 20% of its oil requirements from a single source. That risk diversification formula will put a cap/lid on how much crude India will import from Russia, even if the crude is heavily discounted.

[Vayutuvan]

Can Venezuela charge any price they want? That would teach a lesson to EU not to do chaploosi to massa.

[Vayutuvan]

That risk diversification formula will put a cap/lid on how much crude India will import from Russia, even if the crude is heavily discounted.

Can the Public sector companies raise the cap temporarily while the going is good? If not why not? Serious question.

[vijayk]

[IndraD]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... sea-coast/

the header claims UK Brimstone missiles push Russian naval fleet out of Black sea however in the same article mentions Russia continues to block grain export and supply it to ME & Africa whenever it wants.

[bala]

The Oil Story from this conflict is one of half-clever measures. We have Venezuela's Oil going all the way to Europe increasing cost of transportation. Russian oil which was going to the Euros (some still does) now is shipped to other nations increasing cost of transportation. Russia is claiming it makes 50% more money (even with discounts) from Oil than last year, its Rouble is at an all-time high. The shipping industry insurance coverage was by Llyod's of London but that business is crumbling with others stepping in like Russia. All the foreign experts in Oil have fled from Russia, opening up its industry for others like India. The cost of oil and gas has shot up and inflation is consequently high, the common man is shafted. If you look at the outcomes, it must be "Genius" who came up with the sanctions regime (sigh the overall IQ in the West is going down day by day, dulled by their wokeism).

[NRao]

bala,

There is nothing more comical than EU banning Russian oil (not Russian gas) and then trying to figure out how to break their own ban!!!!!!!

Worse than a dog chasing its own tail.

Meanwhile, there are so many YT threads on what can happen between the various states in "Europe". Should/can Moldova merge with Romania, ...... It is nearly never ending discussions on disputes that started centuries ago that are still going on. Amazing

[NRao]

When intelligence claims it had no good idea.

U.S. Lacks a Clear Picture of Ukraine’s War Strategy, Officials Say

Intelligence agencies know far more about Russia’s military, even as the United States ships billions of dollars in weapons to the Ukrainians.

June 8, 2022, 5:00 a.m. ET
Sign up for the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing. Every evening, we'll send you a summary of the day's biggest news. Get it sent to your inbox.
WASHINGTON — President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has provided near-daily updates of Russia’s invasion on social media; viral video posts have shown the effectiveness of Western weapons in the hands of Ukrainian forces; and the Pentagon has regularly held briefings on developments in the war.

But despite the flow of all this news to the public, American intelligence agencies have less information than they would like about Ukraine’s operations and possess a far better picture of Russia’s military, its planned operations and its successes and failures, according to current and former officials.

Governments often withhold information from the public for operational security. But these information gaps within the U.S. government could make it more difficult for the Biden administration to decide how to target military aid as it sends billions of dollars in weapons to Ukraine.

U.S. officials said the Ukrainian government gave them few classified briefings or details about their operational plans, and Ukrainian officials acknowledged that they did not tell the Americans everything.

Of course the U.S. intelligence community collects information about nearly every country, including Ukraine. But American spy agencies, in general, focus their collection efforts on adversarial governments, like Russia, not current friends, like Ukraine. And while Russia has been a top priority for American spies for 75 years, when it came to the Ukrainians, the United States has worked on building up their intelligence service, not spying on their government.

The result, former officials said, has been some blind spots.

“How much do we really know about how Ukraine is doing?” said Beth Sanner, a former senior intelligence official. “Can you find a person who will tell you with confidence how many troops has Ukraine lost, how many pieces of equipment has Ukraine lost?”

Even without a complete picture of Ukraine’s military strategy and situation, the Biden administration has pushed forward new capabilities, like the rocket artillery systems President Biden announced last week. Ukraine is awaiting the arrival of more powerful Western weapons systems as both sides in the war suffer heavy losses in the eastern Donbas region of the country.

Pentagon officials say they have a robust process for sending weapons in place, which begins with a request from the Ukrainians and includes a U.S. assessment of what kind of equipment they need and how quickly it can be mastered.

Some European agencies say it will be difficult if not impossible for Ukraine to reclaim the land that Russia has taken since it invaded in February, but U.S. intelligence agencies are less pessimistic, officials said. Still, there are cracks in Ukraine’s defenses, and questions about the state of Ukraine’s military forces and strategy in the Donbas have created an incomplete picture for the United States.

Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence, testified at a Senate hearing last month that “it was very hard to tell” how much additional aid Ukraine could absorb.

She added: “We have, in fact, more insight, probably, on the Russian side than we do on the Ukrainian side.”

One key question is what measures Mr. Zelensky intends to call for in Donbas. Ukraine faces a strategic choice there: withdraw its forces or risk having them encircled by Russia.

In recent days, Ukraine has provided more information. On Sunday, Mr. Zelensky visited the front lines and called the fighting in Sievierodonetsk — a city that is key to controlling Donbas — “extremely difficult.” He has also acknowledged that as many as 100 Ukrainian soldiers a day are dying and described how Russia has taken a fifth of the country.


“Probably there’s a debate going on about whether to withdraw all the defenses that might be trapped if they stay,” said Stephen Biddle, a professor of international affairs at Columbia University. “If there’s going to be a deliberate withdrawal, Zelensky is going to have to explain that in some way that doesn’t seem to cast aspersions on Ukrainian arms. He’s going to have to tell some sort of story to the Ukrainian people if they do decide to pull those troops out, and explaining the losses they could suffer if they stayed is a logical way to do that.”

There is another reason for the incomplete intelligence about Ukraine. Cloud cover has limited the utility of overhead satellites.

The United States provides regular, near real-time intelligence updates to Ukraine about the location of Russian forces, information that the Ukrainians use to plan operations and strikes and strengthen their defenses.

But even in high level conversations with Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or Lloyd J. Austin III, the secretary of defense, Ukrainian officials share only their strategic goals, not their detailed operational plans. Ukraine’s secrecy has forced U.S. military and intelligence officials to try and learn what they can from other countries operating in Ukraine, training sessions with Ukrainians and Mr. Zelensky’s public comments, American officials said.

Grain exports. Western leaders continued to accuse Russia of holding up food supplies as a war tactic. Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, held talks with Turkish officials, but announced no progress toward allowing grain exports from Ukraine. Many countries across Africa and the Middle East have been facing alarming levels of hunger and starvation as a result of the blockade.

War losses. Ukraine announced the first officially confirmed exchange of dead bodies from the war with Russia since the conflict began; among the bodies returned to Ukraine were the remains of fighters killed in the battle for the Azovstal plant in Mariupol. More than 40,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed or injured since Russia invaded, according to the Ukrainian government.

Ukraine, the officials said, wants to present an image of strength, both to the public and to its close partners. The government does not want to share information that could suggest a weakening of resolve, or give the impression that they might not win. In essence, Ukrainian officials do not want to present information that might encourage the United States and its other Western partners to slow the flow of arms.

At the behest of the United States, Ukraine has spent years tightening the protection of its military and intelligence services from Russian spies. Briefing other countries of their plans and operational situation could reveal weaknesses Moscow could exploit if the Russian military learned of them.


Public information about Ukrainian casualties, equipment losses and morale is incomplete, and much more is reported about Russian losses and morale than about Ukraine’s.Credit...Lynsey Addario for The New York Times

(Of course, the Ukrainians are not always as careful with American operational plans. Mr. Zelensky once announced publicly that Mr. Austin and Antony J. Blinken, the secretary of state, were coming to Kyiv for a visit, a fact U.S. officials had tried to keep secret.)

There are good reasons for Ukraine not to speak candidly about their forces or their military strategy, Dr. Biddle said.

“I’m not sure it’s in the interest of the American public or Ukrainian public to have Ukrainians be upfront about their losses if the result is it strengthens the Russian war effort,” Dr. Biddle said. “But that means we don’t really know both sides of the story.”

The United States has better estimates of Russian casualties and equipment losses, a senior U.S. official said. The Defense Intelligence Agency, for example, estimates that the number of Ukraine’s soldiers killed in action is similar to Russia’s, but the agency has a far lower level of confidence in its estimate of Ukrainian losses.

The picture American officials have presented of a grinding war, with neither side making decisive progress, appears to be accurate, Dr. Biddle said. Nevertheless, the public information about Ukrainian casualties, equipment losses and morale is incomplete.

But there may be a potential cost if the intelligence community cannot present a fuller picture to the public or Congress about Ukraine’s military prospects, Ms. Sanner said. If Russia advances further, the failure to understand the state of the Ukrainian military could open the intelligence community to accusations that it failed to deliver a full picture of Ukraine’s prospects in the war to policymakers.

“Everything is about Russia’s goals and Russia’s prospects for meeting their goals,” Ms. Sanner said. “We do not talk about whether Ukraine might be able to defeat them. And to me, I feel that we are setting ourselves up for another intel failure by not talking about that publicly.”

[NRao]

Pro-Russia officials open trial against Britons captured fighting in Ukraine

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1 ... 8067394560

Britain is, of course, free to recognize the independence of the Donetsk People's Republic & ask for negotiations regarding the fates of the foreign fighters.

[Deans]

When intelligence claims it had no good idea.

U.S. Lacks a Clear Picture of Ukraine’s War Strategy, Officials Say

Saying they had no idea, is ridiculous, when there is no independent Ukrainian foreign or defense policy. All cabinet ministers in Ukraine were
handpicked by the US (most have dual citizenship) and military advice is probably being given by NATO even at a tactical level, on s daily basis.
This looks like an attempt by US to cover ass, when US public finds that Ukraine is not about to capture Moscow, but are in fact going to lose.

[Vayutuvan]

Saying they had no idea, is ridiculous, when there is no independent Ukrainian foreign or defense policy

White flag. Ukraine has to cede territory for peace.

Peace, piece by piece

[Kati]

Good riddance . . . .

Russian State Duma Votes To Quit European Court Of Human Rights

https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-duma-vo ... 87853.html

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... S96Sitha2A --->

"At the end of the day India is making matters worse" (regarding global food crisis)," accuses Executive VP of European Union.

-via Bloomberg

[Cyrano]

From pro Russian T channel:

< Mod Note: Please post the link Cyrano-ji, when posting news articles or tweets. Thank You. >

[Rakesh]

Modi's Multipolar Moment Has Arrived
https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/06/modis ... rived.html
06 June 2022

[NRao]

^^^^^

Derek Grossman throwing in the towel.

[Rakesh]

^^^^^

Derek Grossman throwing in the towel.

Indeed. He held out for as long as he could.

[Pratyush]

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... S96Sitha2A --->

"At the end of the day India is making matters worse" (regarding global food crisis)," accuses Executive VP of European Union.

-via Bloomberg

Good.

[NRao]

On a more serious note, the wheels of power politics are churning in Washington. John Allen, the President of the Brookings Institute, was placed on "administrative leave", while the FBI and Intel agencies probed into his dealing with foreign nations.

This has been seen as a power play among various factions in Washington - a very serious one. Many angles, speculations at best. But, this video is worth the 10 minutes only because it seems to cover pretty much all angles and more. It is meant only for academic reasons (because it is speculative), but does have serious angles (because the power struggle is real - just that at this point in time we are unable to nail down data points).

Gonzalo Lira is a Chilean/American national, living in Kharkov. Got arrested by UKR (for peddling Russian side) and after 5 days was released. His vids are entertaining, but informative (since he is in Kharkov), and do have a predictive tone - he will go out on a limb. So take it for what it is worth

We Need Washingtonologists NOW!

[Rakesh]

USA's Grand Strategy with Russia & China. Ukraine Taiwan.
By Lt Gen Ravi Shankar (retd)

[NRao]

Only the headline really matters

The Door Between Russia and America Is Slamming Shut

June 9, 2022, 1:00 a.m. ET

By Anastasia Edel

Ms. Edel grew up in southern Russia and now lives in San Francisco. She is the author of “Russia: Putin’s Playground: Empire, Revolution, and the New Tsar.”
.
The war in Ukraine is a never-ending catastrophe. Russian forces, concentrated in the east, continue to inflict terrible damage on Ukrainian soldiers and civilians alike. Countless lives have been lost and upended. Once again, the world must confront the possibility of nuclear war and grapple with a compounding refugee and cost of living crisis. This isn’t the “end of history” that we hoped for.

Less violently, another transformation is taking place: After three decades of exchange, interaction and engagement, the door between Russia and America is slamming shut. Practically every day another American company — including the most symbolic of them all, McDonald’s, whose golden arches heralded a new era 30 years ago — pulls out of Russia. Diplomats have been expelled, concerts canceled, products withdrawn, personal visits called off. In the shuttered consulates, nobody is issuing visas, and even if they were, American airspace is now closed to Russian aircraft. The only substantive interaction left seems to be the issuing of sanctions and counter-sanctions.

........

[kit]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy ... -of-EU-ban



While China and India can suck in most of the Russian crude, they may not absorb all of the output the country currently sends to Europe, Marinchenko said.

"Two to three million barrels a day of Russian oil may disappear from the market by the end of the year, as it will be lost and not go anywhere," he said. "More customers are boycotting Russian crude, and the EU sanctions will lead to logistical bottlenecks and lack of access to western technologies needed for Russia's declining oil field capacity."

wishful thinking or truth ?

[NRao]

Now, where have we heard this before?

Taiwan says it hopes world would sanction China if it invades