Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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Rakesh
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Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Last Page of Previous Thread ---> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7885&start=1200

Please use this thread to discuss the Geopolitical Fallout of the Russian-Ukranian War. Please post verifiable information, as best as possible. That is challenging and moderators appreciate posters who take the effort to separate the wheat from the chaff. Please do not post stuff like US Generals/Admirals were found hiding in tunnels and caves in Ukraine. That is sensationalism and does not serve any purpose.

Especially use this thread to discuss how the geopolitical fallout will affect other nations, but especially India. Please use rational and sensible arguments to make your point. And remember, this is NOT Russian Rakshak Forum or American Rakshak Forum. This is Bharat Rakshak Forum. The purpose of this thread is to promote India's point of view, push India's interests and insulate India - as best as possible - from the fallout.

Equally important is to not cross pollinate the discussion in this thread with the other thread. Keep this thread solely to discuss the geopolitical fallout. Moderators will move posts to the other thread if they come across this. Repeated offenders will get a warning and a temporary ban.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Rakesh ji,
You done it before I could finish typing and post this. Oh well !! Mango posters serve at the pleasure of Admins so do as you see fit ! :wink: :mrgreen: :((

>>>
I've been observing that its been hard to keep the old thread purely limited to combat tactics especially since the last couple of weeks. Because the SMO has reached an advanced stage where big visible moves are mostly done and its time to encash on strengths created.

Secondly, in a war purely for territory for ex it might be easy to focus just on tactics. But this seems to be a war between 2 opposing ideologies, world views and every operational event and how its reported or justified seems to draw from the ideological underpinnings. Many choices of doing or not doing something - especially on the Russian side, seems to be driven by why they started this, and how far they want to go and no more, than purely by do they have the capability or not. Its seems to be the opposite on NATO/Ukr side. They appear willing to do anything if they can do it (and get away with it, especially on the PR side) without much consideration of why and how far to go.

This won't change and any discussion on combat tactics posted here will inevitable rake up discussion on why and why not and spill over into the politics behind events.

For purely geopolitical stuff there is a thread on Strat forum already.

So my humble suggestion would be to leave this thread as it is, perhaps rename the thread to "Russian / Ukranian Combat Tactics and discussion". JMT and all that :)
>>>
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

It is challenging Cyrano for posters to stick to just the combat & strategy, without jumping into the political/geopolitical discussion. As someone once remarked, war is a continuation of politics by other means. But the problem that arises from that is neither issue (combat & strategy and geopolitics) got a fair shake in the previous thread. Posters were running around in circles trying to pin down the facts. Best to separate the discussion and moderate both threads effectively. Sorry to do this, but this is the best path forward IMVHO.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

A good article...

China’s Great Leap Backward
https://openthemagazine.com/columns/chi ... -backward/
By Minhaz Merchant, 13 May 2022
For Xi, the ‘liberation’ of Taiwan was to be his defining legacy. But the Russia-Ukraine war has shown how difficult it is for even a militarily powerful country like Russia to defeat a much smaller but determined nation like Ukraine. The axis of global power has changed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
China is meanwhile caught in a cleft stick. It can’t withdraw from the LAC in Ladakh without losing face. But having angered the West by tying itself too closely with Russia, China needs regional validation. Xi is keen Prime Minister Narendra Modi visit Beijing for the BRICS summit in September 2022. The presence of the leaders of India, Brazil and South Africa, along with Russia, will show that China carries global clout.

However, without the unconditional withdrawal of Chinese troops from the LAC, Modi is unlikely to oblige Xi with a personal visit. The Chinese president may have to pay a price for Modi’s presence in Beijing for the BRICS summit on the eve of the CCP’s crucial 20th National Congress that will ratify an unprecedented third term for him. The price could be a resolution along the LAC on Indian terms.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

no issues, let me sum up the Geopolitical Fallout as I see it:

The west saw the SMO on 24th Feb coming for a while. US realised it was imminent specially after Putin signed a defense pact in Dec with D&L Republics which declared themselves independent. Europe was in denial - perhaps except Macron.

The US got Europe to act in absolute horror and panic that decades of peace & prosperity is gone, and Putin won't stop until he achieves world domination à la "Mini Me".

But the efficiency with which the sanctions package was rolled out makes one think this was well prepared, out of public eye.

UK has been particularly vicious, because it knows it can survive fall outs alone, better than a cacophonic gaggle of EU countries. UK media have been on the forefront of "cancel all things Russian" campaign, which Europe blindly followed.

In less than a month Ruble came back stronger than ever, and EU folded on Gas for Rubles within weeks.

In one fortnight, US & EU managed to show the world that "rules based order" is a joke unless you follow their rules but three months later it seems the joke is on them. They triggered a re-assessment of the west in the eyes of the RoW - this is the biggest Geopolitical Fallout that will play out over the coming months and years.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Europe’s leaders fall out of key on Ukraine
https://www.politico.eu/article/europes ... n-ukraine/
BY MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG, 16 May 2022
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

The article misreads the situation. No one's worried about Ukraine winning - all EU heads of state get detailed intelligence reports on how the war is going, and will know that Ukr is on its last legs, thats why peace talk is back in vogue. EU leaders have to decide how to play/spin it for their own compulsions. Macron worrying about a face saver for Putin is a ridiculously absurd proposition.

Tellingly, Macron when in DE to meet Scholtz clearly said in press meet that Ukr admission into EU can take decades. Shooting down at once Sholtz, Ursula and elensly, and reaffirming France's leading role as EU presidency holder of the moment. He snubbed Scholtz for playing US' tune, cut down EU's stature to be subordinate to member states' sovereignty and threw elensly out on the footpath where he belongs with his bowl.

That presser is worth listening to. I think I posted a link to it in Stratfor.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Please post the presser link in here as well. Thank You Cyrano-ji.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Baikul »

Cyrano wrote:…..
UK has been particularly vicious, …..
Indeed. I think that the UK has been instrumental, in fact they’ve taken the lead in Europe, in encouraging Ukraine to fight.

One almost wonders what business Europe and Ukraine suddenly are for that fat qunt Johnson, who was key to them pulling out of EU.

Then you read the history of England versus continental Europe for the past 200 years and you get your answer. Basically Island England cannot stand a new rising power in Europe and will do anything to take it down.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by m_saini »

Regarding Brar sir's decision to quit:
This is what they originally posted in response to NRao sir's tweet:
What proof exists to support that assertion? Did this "Ukraine66251776" fellow provide any official statement from the Russian side claiming that? ...Agreed. But here you are, quoting unconfirmed crap from a dubious account started in April 2022 (with 3K followers) as a source. Not sure who's to blame here for above.
But here (viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7885&p=2544186#p2544186) Brar-sir themself quote a tweet by "@UAWeapons" , an account created in Feb, 2022, so a "months old account" like @Ukraine66251776.
Possible wreckage of a Russian Orion MALE UAV. This is one of the newer systems recently inducted.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 6050631684
"@UAWeapons" account has 553.2k followers which is very unusual & suspicious for an un-named, un-verified months old twitter account.

What's even more interesting is "@UAWeapons" twitter bio reads
Debunking & Tracking Usage/Capture of Materiel in Ukraine. A @CalibreObscura & @ArmoryBazaar project. For commercial inquiries, please email.
So the 553.2k followers is even more bizarre especially since @ArmoryBazaar has 16.7k followers despite being active since Sept 2018 while @CalibreObscura has 121.4k since Feb 2017.

Further @CalibreObscura bio reads
Arms Research & Occasional Effortposter. Interested in MENA/Asia NSAGs | كاليبر ابسكيورة | Like/RT ≠ Approval. | ɴᴀᴛᴏ sʜɪʟʟ

Maybe the part highlighted in red is a joke and maybe not. But you realize soon enough what's what if you go through their tweets, especially their tweets on the recent mass shooting in US and the way they mockingly use quotes for "white nationalist analysis" and "nazis".

The way Brar-sir got a little upset over NRao sir's usage of a random account, I found that a little hypocritical. So I did report their post. I also don't believe what Ramana sir said about bias, wrong. Everyone has their own bias, which is perfectly fine.

Anyway, I want to sincerely apologize for my part in making Brar-sir leave and give some background to what lead me to use the report button. I did not imagine it could ultimately cause them to leave. I know everyone here, including me, appreciate their in-depth knowledge and explanations. I'm going to take an extended leave (due to work and studies) so Brar-sir, if you see this, please don't stop posting. There'll be no more calling for teacher (as Ramana sir put it) from me.
Apologies as well if this was OT. My last.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Rakesh wrote:Please post the presser link in here as well. Thank You Cyrano-ji.
https://youtu.be/UtnIjJedZVY

and few days later Macron with EU leaders:
https://youtu.be/46RApHP47eM
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

The bigger thought process from a strategic viewpoint is the check on unbridled greed, ambition, domination of one major entity in the world. Here the entity happens to be the Deep State of US, which has fangs all over the globe in multiple countries. They create chaos around the world and benefit from the endeavor. The only entity that can oppose them happens to be Russia or more precisely the fUSSR capabilities, which worked well for some time. We are at a turning point in history where this check, if not made today, will be fait accompli for the Deep State. Whatever little advantage, setbacks, minor losses/victory have no bearing. This outcome has a direct bearing on India in the long run. Indians who perceive whatever advantage (money, edu, careers) they currently have with the West need to pause and understand the bigger picture.

Another point that I want to emphasize is the China factor. Though China and US are at odds with one another, they are essentially one entity as far as economics is concerned (which IMO is the main plank on which dominance is based upon). One makes things, the other consumes them and sells them worldwide (with brands controlled by them). There is also a tacit cooperation going on behind the scenes. There is cooperation in the bio-warfare area, kungflu is an example. During Clinton era, rocket technology was shared. Their current C919 aircraft has engines (CFM Leap-1C) from GE which the Chinese are trying to reverse engineer. The Chinese espionage network is merrily stealing things from the US and there is payoff made to the Deep state actors behind the scenes. There will be some well publicized shenanigans for general consumption and confusion.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Cyrano wrote:
Rakesh wrote:Please post the presser link in here as well. Thank You Cyrano-ji.
https://youtu.be/UtnIjJedZVY

and few days later Macron with EU leaders:
https://youtu.be/46RApHP47eM
Thank you. Greatly appreciated.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

bala wrote:....
Bala-ji, good view points. I believe these tweets are interconnected. I happened to read the other day [ FWIW :) ], that it is easier to sanction India when she has American weaponry versus sanctioning India when she has Russian weaponry.

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... vXBn6uuVDg ---> US Congressman Austin Scott says he is very concerned about India's demand for technology transfer of US equipment to Indian companies.

https://twitter.com/TrendingThough1/sta ... vXBn6uuVDg ---> As a retired predictive modeler, am trying to collect data to build a model. Intent: see if there are any legs to my theory that Neocons will destabilize India. Clearly, to me, Neocons are not happy with India. Indian push for self sufficiency has caught the eyes of Neocons.

https://twitter.com/TrendingThough1/sta ... vXBn6uuVDg ---> My eyes are on the 114 IAF (F-15/F-21/F-18 on table) & 54 for navy (F-18 on table). And, whole bunch of smaller deals. India wants ALL to be built in India. Came across one Congressman complaining during session about India's attempt to be self sufficient in arms!! Neocons not like.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

They need to create a heightened threat perception to make India buy Amreeki maal in desperation while Russia is occupied. That's why regime change happened in Pak, they can get always some Chinese general or CPC leader with kids studying in the US to overreach locally like last time. I won't be surprised if LxCs heat up again this year. Buying anymore US maal will be highly ill advised henceforth.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by skumar »

Cyrano wrote:They need to create a heightened threat perception to make India buy Amreeki maal in desperation while Russia is occupied. That's why regime change happened in Pak, they can get always some Chinese general or CPC leader with kids studying in the US to overreach locally like last time. I won't be surprised if LxCs heat up again this year. Buying anymore US maal will be highly ill advised henceforth.
Other point where I was disappointed in Modi ji (blame infinite expectations).

We should have announced jet engines as a national mission in 2014/2015, just like the US did with the Moon Mission but to a smaller extent. By putting ourselves on the block, it would have drawn a clear "with us/against us" line and forced research spend at a different level. We still seem to be content with small goals. Jet engines is our Achilles heel.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

I'd blame IAF for it - Modi or any PM can act only make good decisions upon correct information and sound advice. Any more will be OT here.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Continue this discussion in the Kaveri engine thread. Thank You.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by eklavya »

Baikul wrote: Basically Island England cannot stand a new rising power in Europe and will do anything to take it down.
Baikul-ji, are you seriously suggesting that the UK induced Putin to invade Ukraine? Putin decided unilaterally to start this war, not “Sir Humphrey” or the clown in No. 10.

As for “rising power”, you should be aware that Russia’s GDP in 2022 is lower than its GDP in 2012. Not much of a rise. Russia’s GDP is less than the GDP of the Netherlands and Switzerland combined, or less than half the GDP of Germany. Russia is the very epitome of “rising irrelevance”.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... _(nominal)
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

GDP can be very misleading in assessing the real strength of a nation and its criticality to the world. The world has suddenly realised you need old fashioned commodities to survive first before you need big tech.

Russia's problem is demographics and low desirability because of which it can't produce or attract enough talent to innovate further and faster.

Ekalavya ji, you surely know all this... And look for Rand Report RB10014
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Baikul »

eklavya wrote:
Baikul wrote: Basically Island England cannot stand a new rising power in Europe and will do anything to take it down.
Baikul-ji, are you seriously suggesting that the UK induced Putin to invade Ukraine? Putin decided unilaterally to start this war, not “Sir Humphrey” or the clown in No. 10.

As for “rising power”, you should be aware that Russia’s GDP in 2022 is lower than its GDP in 2012. Not much of a rise. Russia’s GDP is less than the GDP of the Netherlands and Switzerland combined, or less than half the GDP of Germany. Russia is the very epitome of “rising irrelevance”.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... _(nominal)
Eklavya ji by no means did I intend to imply that UK induced Russia to invade. Just that they, among most nations, have been the most vociferous, aggressive even, in targeting Russia. Perhaps one can call it a ‘robust defence of democracy’ on England’s part. Given what I have read of their history via a via the European mainland, I tend to take a more cynical view.

‘Rising power’ - yes you have me there. I overstated. But my intent was to focus on perfidious Albion and its games. If you see statements coming out from their side, it’s almost as if they’re more aggressive than the Ukrainians, whereas other European powers have been more circumspect, even more mature while still being anti- Russia. I wonder why.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Germany voted against EU taxonomy law that aims to classify gas and nuclear as green(er) energies and channels significant investment - a trillion dollars by 2030 under the EU green new deal.

France sees it as backstabbing to contain it's nuclear energy independence, everyone is mum on where they'll get green gas to save the climate err... the planet.

Putin is surely :rotfl:.

Well written article, use your browser to translate
https://www.marianne.net/politique/unio ... s-de-paris
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ks_sachin »

Cyrano wrote: Russia's problem is demographics and low desirability
The first part is a problem for the armed forces which really need to become something befitting a global power.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Not just armed forces which are the tip of the spear, you need young engineers, craftsmen, farmers, doctors, teachers, scientists to make a strong and long shaft to make the tip effective.

If you can't produce enough young, you need to become very desirable to attract from outside which US, UK, UAE etc have realised.

May be Russian forces fall short of what we expect of them. I'd bet US Army would fare not much different if it were to face the same adversary, not some dusty desert militias.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

I posted sometime back that the US, having lost access to resource rich Russia for ever, will turn its attention to the only other place on the planet - Africa. US restarting deployment of troops to Somalia must be seen in this larger context.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Deans »

I'd like to look at Russia- Ukraine in the contact of a worldview I have,

The world is divided into 3 blocs.
- The Western democracies (NATO, Japan, Aus).
- China and (mostly) dictatorships they support
- Not aligned to either: The most prominent were India, Russia, Brazil, GCC, Indonesia, South Africa.

The Western bloc cannot take on China without the help of the non aligned. They would like the non aligned bloc to either ally with them or
stay neutral. Both China and the West compete for influence among the not aligned bloc.
What this conflict has done is push Russia firmly into the Chinese bloc and ensures China's energy security.

India is the world's 3rd largest economy in PPP terms and in 2030 will overtake the US in GDP (PPP terms).
If strength is a function of military power and GDP, the Western bloc cannot afford to lose India, if they have any hope of taking on China.
India would be a natural ally of the Western bloc (I do not mean military ally) since we are the democracy that cannot ally with China. Even being a neutral partner in trade with China, can make us a vassal state - as will be the case of every country getting funds from OBOR.

The west is making the same mistake with India as they did with Russia. By questioning our democracy, pushing unfair terms of trade, or resisting our efforts to be self reliant, we have to take a less harsh view of China than we would ideally like to. The Ukraine war has also given a push to Aatmanirbhar and less reliance on MNCs.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Deans »

Cyrano wrote:I posted sometime back that the US, having lost access to resource rich Russia for ever, will turn its attention to the only other place on the planet - Africa. US restarting deployment of troops to Somalia must be seen in this larger context.
Both China and the US are competing for influence in Africa. The difference is that if a dictator refuses to repay Chinese loans, or for e.g. nationalizes a Chinese asset like an oil field or copper mine, there is nothing China can do. The US will (and has) done regime change.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

Cyrano wrote:
Snip...

Russia's problem is demographics and low desirability because of which it can't produce or attract enough talent to innovate further and faster.
Snip.....
Russia is attracting a lot of migrants from the former USSR republics for low end jobs. In fact it is one of the leading recipient of such migration in the world. Only the US gets more such migrants.

The second issue is low natural reproduction rates.

I wonder how much of that is a function of the economic and political morass of the 70s 80s and 90s?

Russians have twice in the last century lost several million lives in an un natural manner and have been able to bounce back to a balanced population

The co hort of 00s and subsequent relative prosperity will be entering reproductive cohort in this decade. If Russia prevails in it's current struggle. Will it be able to induce a degree of optimism in the population and consequent desire to reproduce?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

By desirability, I'm talking about voluntary migration of highly intelligent, educated, motivated, hardworking, law abiding young people who will add tremendous value to the economy in the short as well as long term. The kind US typically attracts from India, and many other countries. They come in droves for the safe, hassle free, materially very comfortable life from Day 1 and the distinct possibility of a stable upwardly mobile future if you hold your end of the bargain.

Thats the desirability Russia lacks. Couple that with low reproductive rate and the country's future looks sad.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

Another Win for Russia:
Italy Defies Europe and Opens Ruble Account to Pay for Gas. As the war wears on — and energy prices skyrocket — many of Europe’s energy giants are growing weary and finding ways to keep buying Russian gas. Italy’s Eni company confirmed late Tuesday that it would in fact be opening a ruble account with Russian energy company Gazprom’s bank Gazprombank. Nearly half of the 90 percent of all gas Italy imports comes from Russia.

Germany’s Uniper S.E. and Austria’s OMV AG are also reportedly stretching the same EU loophole that allows Italy to pay in rubles without breaking any sanctions.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/win-putin-it ... 39830.html
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by skumar »

Russia's response to Sweden's and Finland's formal application to join NATO is baffling.

Putin says he has no problems with them joining NATO but any "expansion of military infrastructure into their territories" would provoke a response. What does he expect will happen once they are part of NATO? More cultural exchanges?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Deans wrote:I'd like to look at Russia- Ukraine in the contact of a worldview I have,

The world is divided into 3 blocs.
- The Western democracies (NATO, Japan, Aus).
- China and (mostly) dictatorships they support
- Not aligned to either: The most prominent were India, Russia, Brazil, GCC, Indonesia, South Africa.
...
...
The west is making the same mistake with India as they did with Russia. By questioning our democracy, pushing unfair terms of trade, or resisting our efforts to be self reliant, we have to take a less harsh view of China than we would ideally like to. The Ukraine war has also given a push to Aatmanirbhar and less reliance on MNCs.
Agree 100% .

The west always wants to colonise, materially or ideologically. Preferably both or at least one of the two. They have inalterably culturally colonised the world (to varying degrees of course) which is an enduring dividend from the colonial era, and this convinces them of their obvious superiority. They simply cant get it when an India, Russia or China still opts to go a different way and the resulting cognitive dissonance immediately classifies the other as a threat. Thats why they can't leave Russia alone, tolerate China and remain wary and confused about India - the least threatening of the three.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

Deans wrote:I'd like to look at Russia- Ukraine in the contact of a worldview I have,

The world is divided into 3 blocs.
- The Western democracies (NATO, Japan, Aus).
- China and (mostly) dictatorships they support
- Not aligned to either: The most prominent were India, Russia, Brazil, GCC, Indonesia, South Africa.
I would caution the classification of China and West as different. After the Nixon-Mao entanglement the relationship between the West and China took a different trajectory path. Both US and Euros have deeply invested economically into China by relegating manufacture of their Brands in China. There is theft of their intellectual capital in the areas of manufacture by China. This is happening despite all the "so called" friction. The West collectively does not view China as an adversary, rather they view China as their economic partner. There is wealth being generated by this relationship which goes into the Deep State coffers behind the scenes. The Chinese tourists invade Europe and US as their favorite choice of vacationing and shopping. Some nations even bend so much to hug them, e.g. Italy. China is jockeying for command over the relationship and is pointing out its size of operation, its attendant accumulated wealth and primacy in manufacture. However the beneficiaries of the relationship are the invisible Deep State actors who keep laughing all the way to the bank.

The Non-aligned are truly enemies of the first two and they will be attacked under some pretext by both parties - West + China. In the Ukr conflict, China purposely sided with Russia, since they will be the huge beneficiaries. This is also to assert who is in charge of the relationship of West and China. There is no inherent conflict between the West and China, the conflicts are really for the world to be entertained.
Vayutuvan
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Vayutuvan »

skumar wrote:Russia's response to Sweden's and Finland's formal application to join NATO is baffling.
Not really, skumar ji.

At the moment, he/Russia can't open another front or two. Better secure Donetsk/Luhansk and possibly Odessa. That is proving to be hard going.
Baikul
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Baikul »

Vayutuvan wrote:
skumar wrote:Russia's response to Sweden's and Finland's formal application to join NATO is baffling.
Not really, skumar ji.

At the moment, he/Russia can't open another front or two. Better secure Donetsk/Luhansk and possibly Odessa. That is proving to be hard going.
NATO will try to reduce the time span to join NATO as much as possible, precisely so that Russia doesn’t have time or resources to block the process.

Acceptance into NATO could take a few weeks to a year depending on whom you’re talking to.

https://www.newsweek.com/ho-long-does-i ... en-1706031
Opinions are split on how long it would take. NATO officials said in recent weeks that Finland's application could be completed in less than the four months it took West Germany, Turkey and Greece to join in the 1950s, when there were only the original 12 member countries in the alliance, as reported by AP. But an estimate by Sky News says the process could take up to a year.
Cyrano
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

France just expelled 41 Russian diplomats and Russia responded by expelling 34 French diplomats.

But what is the sudden trigger event? None except the surrenders happening in Azovstal now in the cover of the night. Russia is carefully processing each person, keeping mum on any foreign nationals thus captured, and is sending them to PoW camps on its own/DPR territory.

"Evacuation" is not free to go home - I believe that's the trigger for diplomats being expelled. And why would France get very triggered unless it's people are among those rats?
YashG
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by YashG »

Cyrano wrote:I'd blame IAF for it - Modi or any PM can act only make good decisions upon correct information and sound advice. Any more will be OT here.
yes, the system is so built over decades that any political leader cant change it. Modi is an exception- he can do anything he wishes. But why should he expend so much of his political capital on setting the affairs straight in defence. It makes 0 political sense. Increasing indigenous defence production doesnt help u win an election. the common man who votes doesnt even understand difference bw screwdriver giri and domestic capabilities. Its useless for modi to spend time on improving defence - its political stupidity that he would never do.
Maria
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Maria »

YashG wrote:
Cyrano wrote:I'd blame IAF for it - Modi or any PM can act only make good decisions upon correct information and sound advice. Any more will be OT here.
yes, the system is so built over decades that any political leader cant change it. Modi is an exception- he can do anything he wishes. But why should he expend so much of his political capital on setting the affairs straight in defence. It makes 0 political sense. Increasing indigenous defence production doesnt help u win an election. the common man who votes doesnt even understand difference bw screwdriver giri and domestic capabilities. Its useless for modi to spend time on improving defence - its political stupidity that he would never do.
Yet, he has done so much more than the others. We can unequivocally agree that more can be done.

The greatest paradigm shift came from his hammering the Orcs next door twice. That act announced India's intention of becoming an offensive power to both external and internal audiences.

More startups opened in the defence industry here and there is now a gradual change in the thinking of the Armed Forces. Those who don't toe the Government's line in the Armed Forces, know that they have no further future (no chance of becoming a Governor or an Ambassador somewhere).

My 2 cents.

Hope we reverse engineer all our Russian systems. A 100% localized system like the Su-30 is very much on the cards if we play them right.
Cyrano
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

I've replied to YashG in Kaveri thread. Please let's take it there.
Tanaji
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

What seems to be Russian plan after the fighting is over? If Russia manages to get its land bridge, how does it propose to hold on to it? There will no doubt be continuous provocations by Ukraine aided and abetted by its allies… how does it plan to tackle that?
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