Before Russia initiated this conflict, I am sure they would have gamed this scenario.Vayutuvan wrote:Not really, skumar ji.skumar wrote:Russia's response to Sweden's and Finland's formal application to join NATO is baffling.
At the moment, he/Russia can't open another front or two. Better secure Donetsk/Luhansk and possibly Odessa. That is proving to be hard going.
Moscow is < 500 kms from Ukraine border and < 800 kms from Finland border. Saint Petersburg, which is the 2nd biggest city in Russia and is known as the Cultural Capital of Russia, is on the border with Finland. It does not make sense (to me at least, others may have more insight) to cry about NATO presence in Ukraine and not in Finland.
Also, once Finland and Sweden are part of NATO, they will have NATO infrastructure one way or the other. Hence Putin saying he has no problems with them joining NATO but any "expansion of military infrastructure into their territories" will draw a response is baffling. If he has to deter them, he has to deter them now.
The only reason I can think of is that Russia knows that Finland and Sweden will not get into NATO - Turkey blocked earlier but it looks soft and some other country may have a stronger block later. Or he will initiate a conflict when he thinks they are on the verge of approval.