Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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kit
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

hnair wrote:Europe’s greatest fear is that India and China will snap up the European segment of Russian oil and gas, causing an even more adverse market situation for them and their voters.

US’ greatest fear is that India and China will make Russian hydrocarbons as the base instead of from their client states of ME, cutting off influence in pricing.

All this accusing India of not supporting Ukraine because India bought oil from Russia is just that. They don’t care about Ukrainians dying, blue eyed or not.
Indeed not to mention all that trade would likely be in Yuan and Rupee !.. "Petrodollar going bust"
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Deans wrote:
NRao wrote:Audio :: General Ben Hodges

This guy told me to wait till Sept. He expect Ukraine to turn tide and IIRC reverse losses by year end.
The tide may turn if Russia's economy is badly hit - which I believe it will be in the longer term.
I think the "EU" will be hit - both economically and militarily - much earlier.

In fact, I do not think Russia will suffer in any way. They will do far better than anyone expected and certainly better than EU and the US too.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Hnair ji,
Spot on as always!
The insane pressure on India is for another reason as well. We are the largest owner of Russian mil hardware outside of Russia. Imagine if India supplied all its Russian equipment and ammo to Ukraine to "modernise/replace" with Amreeki hardware, what a difference it would make for Ukra-een troops who can't figure out for their bloody lives all the piecemeal NATO h/w they are getting!

Breathless visits of Truss, Nuland, Blinken and Austin, the Biden summit was for raiding our arsenal and depots. But they got badly stuck due to India's resolutely neutral position, then they tried naming and shaming at Globesec conference and Dr SJ gave them a spanking, and even the invite to the recent G7 haremkhana was for this onlee but they have pretty much given up at this point.
The west is not used to getting booted like this and they hope to stick it in our back sometime in the future, but seeing their brilliance with the sanctions packages that have diminishing returns like iphone models that keep coming out India doesn't need to lose any sleep on that.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

hnair, I echo Cyrano...excellent post. Kudos to you.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

This G20 will be fun!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/sta ... 2097563649

US are trying another colour revolution. This time in Uzbekistan.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

Cyrano wrote:This G20 will be fun!
ah Will the collective G7 take off their clothes :mrgreen: .. BJ seems to be quite eager to show off his non-existent pecs and the single pack :((
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

I want him to go full monty and prove his inclusivity to the whole world.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

The entire initial base for Euro and US/UK wealth was based on looting the rest of the world. I would go one step further and proclaim that their knowledge base was also stolen from others, which they turned into the industrial revolution for the entire world. Using wealth and the strength of the industrial base they conquered others with a large decimation of population by famines/wars/destructive weapons and the resulting spoils of wars contributed to their exalted status. While, today they have turned holier than thou in their own estimate, the base instinct of greed, exploitation, subjugation of others, lectures from the holy pulpit, etc have not left them. They continue to justify their actions in even more convoluted arguments, the intellect has not risen to wisdom by any measure. So much hubris. Eventually any advantage they purportedly have from an industrial base and raw resources will vanish, since others will catch up eventually. The world has changed with the Russia-Ukraine tussle. The daily "brain farts" from the so-called leaders of the West are becoming boorish and tiring. Their moral base is becoming hollower day by day. None of them have any credibility left, their collective bad karma increases for which there is collective punishment in some form or other.

For India, it is time to forge a new path and dig deep into its past civilizational excellence by showing the world a new beginning - an alternate path. Dr. S Jaishankar has started veering away from the traditional path of acquisience to these so-called world leaders. There is more work to be done but a good strategic thinking (a la Chanakya) would provide the new path. There are many nations in the world desperate for an alternate since they see the limitations of wanton western consumerism/wealth accumulation. They see raw base instincts of mankind driving world order which is self defeating.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

bala wrote:The entire initial base for Euro and US/UK wealth was based on looting the rest of the world. I would go one step further and proclaim that their knowledge base was also stolen from others, which they turned into the industrial revolution for the entire world. .....
You forgot re-writing history. Especially the part "we went in and changed them for the better"
For India, ........
IMO, what Jaishankar/Modi has started is just that - a start. Until it is embedded in the national DNA (part of the culture) it will not matter. + An immediate need is to build war reserves for at last 6 months, prefer 9-12 months. Need to bring per capita GDP to at least $6000 (by 2030). And, both of these IMO are problems.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by ks_sachin »

NRao we need to as Part of Indian society become less soft and forge a vision for India.

Modi is one man and he will not solve all our problems!

After all while the gora came and exploited we allowed ourselves to be exploited!!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

Wont be too long before India will be courted by China ..

India is right now in the geopolitical "sweetspot"
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

kit wrote:Wont be too long before India will be courted by China ..

India is right now in the geopolitical "sweetspot"
True.

In fact there are some random analysts - popular in their own ways - have stated that there are four major players: US, EU, Russia, and China - followed quickly by "India is the pivotal state".

King maker.

However, I doubt China will reach out, Russia will. In fact as we type the Venn overlap is the greatest between Russia and India.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

NRao wrote:
kit wrote:Wont be too long before India will be courted by China ..

India is right now in the geopolitical "sweetspot"
True.

In fact there are some random analysts - popular in their own ways - have stated that there are four major players: US, EU, Russia, and China - followed quickly by "India is the pivotal state".

King maker.

However, I doubt China will reach out, Russia will. In fact as we type the Venn overlap is the greatest between Russia and India.
Russia already has, a pivotal moment would be if or when China does. The balance of power would then truly shift to Asia for the first time in centuries
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Deans »

Apart from Kaliningrad, there's apparently a blockade of a Russian settlement in the island of Svalbard (over which Norway has sovereignty).
There was an old agreement by which the islands in the Arctic sea belong to Norway, but Russia is entitled to maintain and supply a small
community on the islands, which Norway also has. Both communities have lived in harmony for decades. Norway is now preventing Russia from resupplying the islanders. This is another Kaliningrad, except that resupply is not possible if Norway does not permit it.
Putin's parents endured the siege of Leningrad in WW-2 and he might react in unpredictable ways. I think its a dangerous escalation by NATO.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

EU seems to have put it's foot down and told Lithuania to let the blockade go. But they are acting as if they were more royalist than the king. This is not the right time to use such distraction cards.

Svalbard used to be called Spitzbergen. I used to dream of going there as an explorer when I was a kid.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

China, India Positive on G7 Plan to Cap Russian Oil Price

June 29, 2022
A source said the price-per-barrel cap level had not yet been determined, but it would have to be high enough to give Russia an incentive to keep producing oil
China and India have reportedly reacted positively to a Group of Seven (G7) plan to cap the price of Russian oil, a plan that would limit the country’s revenues over its aggression in Ukraine yet keep key customers.

G7 leaders agreed on Tuesday to look at a ban on transporting Russian oil sold above a certain price in an effort to reduce Moscow’s revenues and deplete its war chest.

A source said the price-per-barrel cap level had not yet been determined, but it would have to be high enough to give Russia an incentive to keep producing oil.

Russian crude has been selling at heavy discounts of $30 to $40 per barrel compared to benchmark Brent crude prices of $110 to $120 per barrel due to Western sanctions on Moscow.

With the European Union preparing to impose a phased embargo on Russian oil later this year, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has advocated the cap as a way to cut Russia’s oil revenues while keeping supplies on the market.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Japan PM Fumio Kishida Says G7 Mulling To Slash Russian Oil Prices By Half: Report

Jul 3, 2022
In his latest remarks, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that the Group of Seven (G7) nations have decided to impose a cap on Russian oil prices by slashing them to around half of the current purchase price. During a public address in Tokyo on Sunday, Kishida made reference to a joint communique released after the recently concluded G7 summit in Germany. He went on to say that a mechanism would be developed to stop the purchase of Russian oil at a price higher than the cap.

According to the communiqué, a plan to cap oil prices might allow for the international shipping of Russian crude oil and petroleum products only if the commodity is purchased at or below a specified price. According to reports, limiting the price of oil is anticipated to further tighten the existing sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

...........
The suicide vortex (SV) is getting stronger by the week and sucking in more and more nations into it.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

On second thought, this would be great for India. Buy Russian oil at half price and sell products from it at full price.

And, then perhaps compensate Russia is some other way.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

THE bill

Bloomberg: EU can provide more than €500 billion to help Ukraine
According to the source, Ukraine plans to present the recovery plan at a national reconstruction forum in Lugano, Switzerland on July 4-5.

European Union officials said the 27-member bloc that formally recognized Ukraine as a candidate last month would provide the bulk of the overall financial aid, which could top €500 billion.

It is noted that the Ukrainian authorities discussed the draft of the project with donors, including the EU countries.

Earlier, the European Union transferred a new tranche of macro-financial assistance to Ukraine in the amount of €600 million.

The head of the EC also announced the readiness of the European Union to finance the restoration of the country in the future, subject to reforms in the country.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Normally my blood would boil seeing something like this - misguided EC wokes taking unearned money and doing underserved charity while USURPING sovereignty and citizens rights of member states.

But then again there will not be a Ukra-een left nor its corrupt junta still in power to enjoy all this money paid out of EU people's taxes.

Merci Monsieur Poutin !
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »


Brexit suddenly makes sense now :roll:
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by YashG »

kit wrote:Wont be too long before India will be courted by China ..

India is right now in the geopolitical "sweetspot"
This would sound so right in current situation but so is the fact that China can afford to supply russia more than it is rn. You cannot expect China to do the rational or obvious, its a very inward looking civilization. By picking up a fight with India, it went for the worst situation it could have created. It would have been nice for Xi to reciprocate Modi, who gave Xi a great chance to play it well. So dont expect china will behave. Indeed it is in US' interest to see India - China sparring. A hot South China Sea also means more business for LM, Boeing etc.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

90 min discussion on finance, politics, etc - from the 1970s onwards, and what to expect. A free flowing discussions. Will appeal to many who follow history and are somewhat interested in the future.

Interrogating Cold War 2.0
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Kati »

A good read . . . .

Dmitri Trenin: Russia has made a decisive break with the West and is ready to help shape a new world order
It’s perhaps hard to believe now but – only eight years ago – Russia was a full member of the former G8. Since then, there have been dramatic changes.
Full article: https://www.rt.com/russia/558321-rus-pi ... d-nonwest/
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

Kati wrote:A good read . . . .

Dmitri Trenin: Russia has made a decisive break with the West and is ready to help shape a new world order

Full article: https://www.rt.com/russia/558321-rus-pi ... d-nonwest/
Beginnings of the Asian Century
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/ ... 50714.html

Meanwhile, Putin reportedly said during the meeting with Jokowi that Russia has no restrictions on fertilizer and food exports, according to Russian state news agency TASS.

“I would like to note at once that we have no restrictions for fertilizer export. Early last year, we thought about supporting our own agriculture at first, but volumes of fertilizer production in Russia are such at present that we have no restrictions for supplies of these products to the international market. The same pertains to foods,” Putin said, according to TASS.

The ongoing food problems in the world, he said, are due to Western sanctions on Russian ports. The United States and other nations have slapped punishing sanctions on Russia in response to its four-month-old invasion of Ukraine.

But since Russia invaded Ukraine, it has blocked all of the latter’s Black Sea ports and cut off access to almost all of Ukraine's exports, especially of grain, sparking real fears of a global food crisis.

In its April report, the Global Crisis Response Group, set up by the United Nations secretary general, said Ukraine and Russia provide 30 percent of the world’s wheat and barley, a fifth of its maize and more than half of its sunflower oil. Russia is the world’s largest natural gas exporter and second largest oil exporter.

Jokowi, this year’s rotating leader of the G20 group of major economies, is in a bind because Russia and its supporter China are members of the group, along with Western heavyweights such as the United States, France, Germany, Canada, and their Pacific allies such as Japan and Australia.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

Russia makes massive oil discovery in the Arctic

It is one of the largest recent findings on the Russian shelf, energy giant Rosneft says.

https://www.rt.com/business/558090-russ ... ry-arctic/
June 4, 2022
Russian energy major Rosneft has announced the discovery of a huge oil deposit in the Pechora Sea containing an estimated 82 million tons of oil.

The field was discovered thanks to a drilling campaign in the Medynsko-Varandeysky area. “During the tests, a free flow of oil was obtained with a maximum flow rate of 220 cubic meters a day,” the company’s statement read on Wednesday, noting that the “oil is light, low-sulfur, low viscosity.”

Rosneft noted that the exploration works in the waters of the Pechora Sea proved the “significant oil potential of the Timan-Pechora province on the shelf and became the basis for continuing the study and development of the region.”

The company reportedly controls a total of 28 offshore licenses in the Arctic, eight of them in the Pechora Sea.
// so supply of Oil from Russia is going to be even more
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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Japan Times :: Jul 2, 2022 :: Russia’s move on Sakhalin-2 gas plant intensifies competition for fuel
Russia’s move to reshuffle ownership of the Sakhalin-2 natural gas project may constrict global markets even more by pushing Japan to compete with Europe for alternative sources of supply.

President Vladimir Putin’s decree to transfer rights for the plant to a new Russian company has no immediate impact on the project’s biggest customer, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said. A Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, also said there is no threat to LNG supplies from the plant at the moment. Japanese trading houses Mitsubishi Corp. and Mitsui & Co. own a combined 22.5% of the project.

Even so, the world’s second-biggest LNG buyer is considering replacing Russian flows by buying more from the spot market or from other countries, trade minister Koichi Hagiuda said. Japan already asked government officials in the U.S. and Australia for more supply in order to reduce dependence on Russia, he said.

That replicates efforts by the European Union to wean itself off Russian supplies as punishment for invading Ukraine, including by agreeing to buy extra from the U.S. this year. Russia severely curtailed pipeline imports into Europe last month as Putin steps up his use of gas as a weapon, causing fresh price shocks ahead of peak winter demand.

“If the Sakhalin project, which has supplied Japan at competitive prices, is in such a state of limbo, spot prices are at risk of rising further, which could even trigger a panic in the market,” said Hiroshi Hashimoto, an analyst at the Institute of Energy Economics in Japan.

European gas prices more than doubled since the start of the year, while Asian prices increased by about a third.

Uncontracted LNG already is limited. In addition, Asian buyers have been losing to Europe on prices, meaning flexible LNG from the U.S. has been favoring destinations from the U.K. to Spain instead of Japan or China. Japanese utilities already rushed to buy more superchilled fuel during a record heat wave in late June, contributing to higher Asian LNG prices.

The global LNG market is expected to remain tight until 2026, according to BloombergNEF. Additional supply from new plants in Qatar and the U.S. will take several years to arrive, potentially triggering continuous competition and shortages in those nations unable to pay higher prices.

It’s the second time the Kremlin directly interfered in the Sakhalin-2 project, threatening foreign investment. In 2006, pipeline gas supplier Gazprom PJSC, which had no experience in LNG, took control of the development from Shell PLC after regulators threatened to close the $22 billion project on environmental grounds. The 100% foreign-owned project, approved as a production-sharing agreement in 1994, had become an anomaly as Putin tightened control over the domestic energy industry.

Shell, which holds a 27.5% stake in the facility in Russia’s far east, announced it would exit the project after Russia invaded Ukraine. It also wouldn’t commit to any new investments in the country.

Japan will determine whether it can stay after assessing offered conditions, Hashimoto said. And it would be increasingly difficult to do business in Russia in years to come, including involvement in future liquefaction projects such as Novatek PJSC’s Arctic LNG 2.

“This adds a new layer of complexity to existing sales-and-purchase agreements, all of which might need to be transferred to the new company,” said Kaushal Ramesh, an analyst at Norwegian consultant Rystad Energy. “In the near term, chances are they will continue to supply to long-term contracts.”
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Now we are on the border of serious collapse

Jul 4, 2022 :: Entire industries in Germany could collapse due to Russian natural-gas supply cuts: union head
* Germany's top union official said entire industries could collapse due to Russia's natural-gas cuts.

* Europe's largest economy is heavily reliant on natural gas piped in from Russia.

* A key gas pipeline will shut from July 11-21 for maintenance amid fears supplies will not resume after that
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

Russia becomes India’s top fertilizer supplier

https://www.rt.com/business/558131-russ ... -supplies/

Moscow offers agri-produce at lower prices than China, Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Jordan
Russia has become India’s biggest supplier of phosphate fertilizers due to discounts amid Ukraine-related Western sanctions. Over the past three months India imported 350,000 tons of diammonium phosphate, or DAP, a fertilizer that provides agricultural crops with phosphorus nutrition for the entire period of their growth. Imports came at just the right time as planting began for the rain season, which will peak in July. The cost of Russian fertilizer for India amounted to $920-925 per ton, which is lower than the prices offered by other international suppliers. The price offered by Russia coincides with the price cap India recently put on fertilizer importers. Russian fertilizer producer PhosAgro has offered Indian companies a heavy discount on its products, while also covering bank commissions for payments transfer.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Shanmukh »

Mods: Please move this to the appropriate section, if this doesn't belong here.

Here is Maria Zakharova's view on what cancel culture really is. The video has English subtitles, so it is easy to follow, but it is better in her Russian original. The woman has a very good clarity of thought.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgCUNa6hDOI

PS: I find Lavrov's and Zakharova's Russian the easiest to follow, Putin's somewhat harder [he often speaks in a monotone when he is speaking abroad], and Kadyrov the hardest. Anyone else shares my experience?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Farmer's and citizen protests in the Netherlands (not being reported anywhere), and strikes by workers in O&G in Norway, has to impact both food and energy sectors in Europe.

Supposedly, the Dutch gov are proposing shutting down 30% farms to meet climate change numbers, so the protests in Netherlands.

Nord Stream halts gas from Russia for 2 weeks, for maintenance.

Big hurt arriving at terminal 1. Ahead of schedule.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... sdxe97AQ4Q ---> UK very supportive of India playing a leading role globally: Britain's Chancellor Sunak.

https://twitter.com/Luviraj/status/1544 ... sdxe97AQ4Q ---> Suddenly now they have a heart for their colonies and settlements. LOL.
:rotfl:
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

Norway oil and gas output cut due to strike
https://www.rt.com/news/558380-norway-oil-gas-strike/
Norway, a leading European supplier of hydrocarbons, is reducing its output of oil and natural gas due to a strike by senior offshore workers, which began on Tuesday. A protest by offshore workers may cost up to 13% of the country’s total natural gas production.

The protest comes as Norway responds to soaring global fuel prices and a surge in European demand, amid attempts to decouple its economy from Russian energy. Norway currently covers roughly a quarter of EU demand and one-fifth of the demand in the UK, according to its petroleum ministry.

Benchmark natural gas futures at the Dutch TTF trading hub surged 10% on Monday on news of the imminent strike in Norway.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

The power situation in Euro land has become dire.

Financial Times reported and quoted by https://www.rt.com/business/558410-eu-p ... ices-high/

German baseload power for delivery next year, which is the benchmark European price, traded at €325 ($334) per megawatt hour (MWh) on Monday. Last July, the price stood at just over €81 ($83) per megawatt hour. The equivalent contract in France has doubled to €366 ($377) per MWh since the start of the year. Electricity prices are influenced by the cost of natural gas, which is used to generate power. Gas prices in Europe exceeded $1,800 per thousand cubic meters.

This is more comical... Bring back coal to fight Russia – Poland
The EU must put confronting climate change on pause for the sake of energy security, PM Morawiecki argued. Poland claims that financial speculation on the emissions market drove allowance price increases, from below €10 per metric ton of carbon in 2018 to above €90 in 2022.
Last edited by bala on 05 Jul 2022 21:11, edited 1 time in total.
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