Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[SaraLax]

One thing we are not seeing is the Russian Air force. With all the S300s etc of UKN gone, it can be now used with near impunity by Russians.

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If PRC decided to attack and conquer Taiwan today, the battle might be intense for 1 week but I doubt US will be able to help beyond that, for PRC it might to tempting to use NOKO to attack SOKO and attack Taiwan and get complete control over the World's chip markets.

I am sure US would destroy any Chip Production Facility in Taiwan/SK/Japan if it feels PRC has more than 50% chance of capturing such facilities.

[Aditya_V]

True, on another note is it me, after Stalingradish type of fighting in Bakhmut, the coming offensive will be something like the battle of Kursk 1943, Russians are preparing defensive lines in Melitopal area, Ukraine waiting for its Abrams, Leopards and Challenger tanks (like Wermacht for new Panther and Tiger Tanks). This period 10 Jul 23 to 1 Aug 23 will have real heavy battles will all sides going all in and based on the result the change will be reflected in Sep 23 when the world will know who is winning the war while it continues for 1 more year.

[Cyrano]

That is only if Ukraine has enough men to fight, and logistics are maintained to deliver supplies to front line. We are hearing reports of horrendous attrition of poorly equipped, hardly trained, poorly supplied front line conscripts. They are getting killed even before they can see the Russian enemy. How long can this hold?

From various T channels, I gather that the Russians are letting the enemy come to them, and they have as much ISR capabilities as the AFU. Then when AFU troops get drawn into like moths to a fire, Russians let loose arty barrages. How can any force fight when out ranged and out gunned? NATO has found no realistic solution to this.

The changed narrative in Kiev and the western media makes me think they have realised this is going horribly wrong and putting up a facade while trying to find a way out.

China proposed a ceasefire, knowing that this is a right time for the west to stop losses. The US would have none of it because that would be an egg on their faces. Because it would become an inescapable failure of having egged on Ukraine and make it lose not just its military but also a significant chunk of its most productive territory.

[williams]

That is only if Ukraine has enough men to fight, and logistics are maintained to deliver supplies to front line. We are hearing reports of horrendous attrition of poorly equipped, hardly trained, poorly supplied front line conscripts. They are getting killed even before they can see the Russian enemy. How long can this hold?

From various T channels, I gather that the Russians are letting the enemy come to them, and they have as much ISR capabilities as the AFU. Then when AFU troops get drawn into like moths to a fire, Russians let loose arty barrages. How can any force fight when out ranged and out gunned? NATO has found no realistic solution to this.

The changed narrative in Kiev and the western media makes me think they have realised this is going horribly wrong and putting up a facade while trying to find a way out.

China proposed a ceasefire, knowing that this is a right time for the west to stop losses. The US would have none of it because that would be an egg on their faces. Because it would become an inescapable failure of having egged on Ukraine and make it lose not just its military but also a significant chunk of its most productive territory.

It seems Russians have game planned the battle of attrition to some level. But the question for Russia is why so much blood and treasure for this? Is Ukraine's closeness to the west such an existential crisis for them to sacrifice so much of their men and material? Not to mention the economic losses this war is going to create for them in the years to come.

[Cyrano]

We have gone over this again and again in this thread. Russia cannot sit idle when Russian speaking people in Donbass are being killed by AFU, 14000 people have died since 2014. Ukrainian Rada has passed laws banning Russian language and culture. Russian orthodox churches are being targeted, priests tortured, killed, detained, church buildings are being taken over and destroyed. Russia cant lose Crimea or let it be attacked - compromises it access to Black Sea - the only warm water ports it has in the Western Hemisphere. Ukraine has been talking about going nuclear again, and if it joins NATO and then nuclear missiles are stationed in Ukraine, minutes away from Moscow and major Russian cities - what would that mean for Russia?

After integrating the 4 breakaway republics into Russia, there is no going back. Its Russian territory now. Over 2 million Ukrainians are refugees in Russia. As long as AFU is mobilised against it, Russia has to defend and break Ukrainian military. Russia will pay the price for it in lives and resources. The west keeps saying "as long as it takes" they will support Ukraine. What options does that leave for Russia?

Russia has very cleverly turned the sanctions and war needs to its advantage by reorienting its economy and reviving its MIC. With NS bombed, the break from the west is irreversible. With their rabid Russophobic stance, the west has made it impossible to mend fences with Russia for a very long time.

Like a chemical reaction once started cannot be stopped, both sides have to go on until a decisive result precipitates.

[gakakkad]

One thing we are not seeing is the Russian Air force. With all the S300s etc of UKN gone, it can be now used with near impunity by Russians.

You are believing the Western/Ukranian narrative, Ukraine was well prepared long before 24 Feb 22, they probably had a lot of Nasams, Hawk and few Patriots before then.

With Nato repair depots all shifted in Poland, with Ukraine given endless Fuel, Food , Ammo, missiles, Satellite surveillance, Nato AWACS, Drones running long hours, with Nato transport fleet working overtime to keeping Ukraine in the war. This is a true battle of attrition on both sides

If PRC decided to attack and conquer Taiwan today, the battle might be intense for 1 week but I doubt US will be able to help beyond that, for PRC it might to tempting to use NOKO to attack SOKO and attack Taiwan and get complete control over the World's chip markets.

Taiwan is one of the most heavily militarized countries in the world and has advanced equipment China does not have . It's army is very well trained and has participated in military exercises with unkil.

Ukraine shares land border with Russia. There is a sea of 300 km between china and Taiwan .

And last and most important point . China is not Russia . Russkies have managed to maintain a decent capacity for advance weaponry while prc is just a photochor .
Besides oem Russian stuff none of there stuff is proven .
Besides 1962 war which India basically decided to lose rather than Chinese winning it they've really not won a war . They lost several including 1967 with India and later against Vietnam . Heck even the pakees are perhaps better trained.
One child law means that most prc males are single children . Drafting will be a pain in the ass . And those people will surrender faster than downhill skiing pakee.

I don't think a military capture of Taiwan is tenable . A political capture is more realistic though.

[Avid]

If PRC decided to attack and conquer Taiwan today, the battle might be intense for 1 week but I doubt US will be able to help beyond that, for PRC it might to tempting to use NOKO to attack SOKO and attack Taiwan and get complete control over the World's chip markets.

If PRC was assured of that -- it would have done it.

NoKo regime is not about to commit hara-kiri on behalf of PRC. NoKo does not want SoKo territory; it wants to be left alone. In fact -- consider two simple scenarios:
1) PRC attacks Taiwan, NoKo sits out. No matter the outcome of that conflict -- after the war NoKo is better positioned to negotiate with US/SoKo than it was before the war.
2) PRC attacks Taiwan, NoKo attacks SoKo. No matter the outcomes of that conflict -- after the war NoKo is weaker and holding on to a territory (or parts of it) which the population opposes. But US will be less weakened than NoKo. SoKo has much deeper MIC capabilities than NoKo. The conflict does not end well for NoKo.

Of the two scenarios, (1) has less uncertainty, and better outcome probability for NoKo. It will position itself to ensure that it does not get ensnared into the conflict.

[Roop]

... the question for Russia is why so much blood and treasure for this? Is Ukraine's closeness to the west such an existential crisis for them to sacrifice so much of their men and material? Not to mention the economic losses this war is going to create for them in the years to come.

It is astounding to me that you ask such a question at this late stage of the game -- this latest chapter in the Russia-NATO war has been raging for over a year now, but the American neocons' anti-Russia war itself started 32 or 33 years ago. Russia didn't start this, the US did. Have you so quickly forgotten the Maidan Coup of 2014?

Cyrano has summarised the recent history very well, no need for me or anyone else to repeat any of that, but really your posing of this question is like a math student sitting down to write his final exam hoping to get a university degree and asking, "Why so much blood, sweat and tears for this exam? Could I not simply get my degree by showing the purity/nobility of my spirit? By showing how I am above such crass material concerns as exams?"

[sanman]

A "mini-NATO" within NATO? What's going on here?

[eklavya]

^^^
It’s the Nordic airforces, including non-NATO (for now, until President Erdogan in Turkey is voted out) Sweden, and soon to join NATO Finland, being integrated into the NATO command structure, increasing operational integration, etc. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought NATO right to Russia’s border (Finland has a 1,300 km border with Russia), shaken the Europeans out of their complacency on military issues, boosted defence spending, and made NATO central in their thinking about European security.

[sanman]

^^^
It’s the Nordic airforces, including non-NATO (for now, until President Erdogan in Turkey is voted out) Sweden, and soon to join NATO Finland, being integrated into the NATO command structure, increasing operational integration, etc. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought NATO right to Russia’s border (Finland has a 1,300 km border with Russia), shaken the Europeans out of their complacency on military issues, boosted defence spending, and made NATO central in their thinking about European security.

Nordic Aryan Tribal Organization

Finland only being admitted because Erdogan wants to avoid Western interference in his re-election. Once Erdogan is elected again, then his stance may change. Sweden may not have as easy a time. I don't know how they pushed Hungary's Orban to acquiesce to Finland's admission. Strange how Hungary/Orban get punishment from EU for opposing illegal migration, but meanwhile Finland is building a wall to keep out Russian migrants, and it gets rewarded with NATO membership.

[eklavya]

^^^^
Turkey has already ratified Finland’s accession. I don’t think they can change their mind, and even if they do, the rest of NATO will ignore them.

Finland will be a member of NATO within days.

Sweden has no border with Russia, and the West will defend Sweden if Russia ever attacks; Turkey can’t do anything about it.

If Erdogan loses, it’s because he has severely mismanaged the economy and the earthquake has also exposed his inadequacies; “Western interference” is sore-loser talking points like Trump, Bolsonaro, etc.

I think you will find that the EU’s problem with Viktor Orban is that he has undermined key democratic institutions in Hungary: press, courts, etc. Plus he is good pals with President Putin, and he is highly distrusted by the rest of the EU.

As for the Finland border fence, in current circumstances, it’s a sound security measure:

https://news.sky.com/story/finland-star ... d-12822834

The Finnish Border Guard says the 200km of barrier fence will improve security and help stop disruption if Moscow decides to weaponise mass migration against Helsinki.

[IndraD]

US offers Nato seat to India

[Deans]

Taiwan is one of the most heavily militarized countries in the world and has advanced equipment China does not have . It's army is very well trained and has participated in military exercises with unkil.

Besides oem Russian stuff none of there stuff is proven .
Besides 1962 war which India basically decided to lose rather than Chinese winning it they've really not won a war . They lost several including 1967 with India and later against Vietnam . Heck even the pakees are perhaps better trained.
One child law means that most prc males are single children . Drafting will be a pain in the ass . And those people will surrender faster than downhill skiing pakee.

I don't think a military capture of Taiwan is tenable . A political capture is more realistic though.

Taiwan depends on international trade for its survival (incl. investments in China).
How would Taiwan cope with a Chinese Naval and air blockade of Taiwan ? The announcement of a blockade would mean international shipping stays away. The US Navy cannot get within range of the PLAAF and long range missiles operating from the mainland, which means they lack the means to seriously contest the blockade.

[eklavya]

The US Navy cannot get within range of the PLAAF and long range missiles operating from the mainland, which means they lack the means to seriously contest the blockade.

China would invite a blockade of its own ports if it blockaded Taiwan. They are totally dependent on imports of energy, etc. Suicidal move by China.

[Pratyush]

China would invite a blockade of its own ports if it blockaded Taiwan. They are totally dependent on imports of energy, etc. Suicidal move by China.

This is the most important point and one that I am not able to reconcile in this war.

The Russians have been pushed into an alliance with PRC by the collective West.

An Overland trade route to Russia and energy supplies makes PRC invulnerable to any blockade by any of the western power's.

While the Anti Access and Area Denial capacity of PRC can deny guam and Japanese home islands to the USA.

[Igorr]

Roos reportedly using T-55s
I personally believe that these will go into fortified defensive positions acting as pillboxes.

Hi bro! I got acquainted with various assumptions about the T-55 and, by the way, the T-54, which also flashed on the video. Connoisseurs in Russia believe that most of it will go to cannibalization to ensure the combat readiness of the T-62 fleet. Also, the option of a deep modernization for delivery abroad to allies, such as Syria, in exchange for the T-90 and T-72 located there, is not excluded. Also, many modernized T-80s and T-72s have been delivered to the North of Russia and the Far East, which are now going to the Ukrainian front. They also need to be replaced. I foresee orders for the delivery of T-90s from India, which would be nice, given that the West seems to have decided to flood Ukraine with 'leopards'.

[eklavya]

An Overland trade route to Russia and energy supplies makes PRC invulnerable to any blockade by any of the western power's.

Not correct. There is only one pipeline carrying crude oil from Russia to China, and that is the ESPO pipeline with a capacity of 0.7 million barrels per day.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsig ... eline.html

The two lines currently have a combined annual capacity of 35 MMt per year (MMt/y), approximately 700,000 b/d.

China’s total imports of crude oil are forecast to reach 11.8 million barrels per day this year.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 023-02-17/

China's crude imports may rise between 500,000 and 1 million barrels per day (bpd) this year to as high as 11.8 million bpd, reversing previous two years' decline to exceed 2020's record of 10.8 million bpd, according to analysts from four industry consultancies - Wood Mackenzie, FGE, Energy Aspects and S&P Global Commodity Insight.

The Straits of Malacca are truly China’s Achilles heel. If they try anything funny in Arunachal Pradesh, India too will blockade their oil supplies.

Plus the United States can simply stop the Chinese from using dollars to pay for oil. Every single dollar payment is cleared in the USA and no bank will defy US sanctions in this regard. And no oil exporter will want CNY (unless there is a toilet paper shortage) when the PRC is at war with the USA.

[Pratyush]

The pipeline and rail infrastructure cannot be enhanced?

Russian and PRC trade is already predominantly in local currency.

Saudi Arabia is already in talks with the PRC for Yuan payment.

The strength of US comes from the fact that controls international institutions.

Ukraine war has created an imperative for all non western states including India to by pass these institutions.

PRC is in the strongest position to build a substitute system.

[Kati]

That is only if Ukraine has enough men to fight, and logistics are maintained to deliver supplies to front line. We are hearing reports of horrendous attrition of poorly equipped, hardly trained, poorly supplied front line conscripts. They are getting killed even before they can see the Russian enemy. How long can this hold?

From various T channels, I gather that the Russians are letting the enemy come to them, and they have as much ISR capabilities as the AFU. Then when AFU troops get drawn into like moths to a fire, Russians let loose arty barrages. How can any force fight when out ranged and out gunned? NATO has found no realistic solution to this.

The changed narrative in Kiev and the western media makes me think they have realised this is going horribly wrong and putting up a facade while trying to find a way out.

China proposed a ceasefire, knowing that this is a right time for the west to stop losses. The US would have none of it because that would be an egg on their faces. Because it would become an inescapable failure of having egged on Ukraine and make it lose not just its military but also a significant chunk of its most productive territory.

It seems Russians have game planned the battle of attrition to some level. But the question for Russia is why so much blood and treasure for this? Is Ukraine's closeness to the west such an existential crisis for them to sacrifice so much of their men and material? Not to mention the economic losses this war is going to create for them in the years to come.

Saar,
Russia, with the backing of PRC, is making sure to change the world order once and for good. Perhaps this is the best time to enforce the International Antitrust Law so that one country doesn't have the monopoly. Old Joe is hamstrung with a divided Congress, and the European appetite for this continued war in Ukr is dwindling fast. The continued unrest in France, germany, Czech Rep, etc. is the direct result of banning the cheap Ru energy. Let it burn for a while..... eventually it is good for the collective global south.

[CalvinH]

Taiwan depends on international trade for its survival (incl. investments in China).
How would Taiwan cope with a Chinese Naval and air blockade of Taiwan ? The announcement of a blockade would mean international shipping stays away. The US Navy cannot get within range of the PLAAF and long range missiles operating from the mainland, which means they lack the means to seriously contest the blockade.

Will it be easy for China to blockade the ports on the eastern side of the Taiwan?

[eklavya]

The pipeline and rail infrastructure cannot be enhanced?

Russian and PRC trade is already predominantly in local currency.

Saudi Arabia is already in talks with the PRC for Yuan payment.

The strength of US comes from the fact that controls international institutions.

Ukraine war has created an imperative for all non western states including India to by pass these institutions.

PRC is in the strongest position to build a substitute system.

The infrastructure can be enhanced, and in a war it can be degraded overnight. In wartime, a few pipelines can and will be destroyed in a matter of hours, as will the refineries that process the crude oil.

Saudi Arabia’s currency is pegged to the dollar. It is the foundation of their economic stability. One or two shipments paid in Yuan change nothing. And in wartime, the US will impose secondary sanctions i.e. trade with China will shut that country from the US financial system. Only Russia and Iran will take that risk, and Iran has no pipeline to China either.

The strength of the US is economic, scientific, industrial, political, military and cultural. The US is far stronger than China on all these dimensions. President Xi’s daughter studies at Harvard. Go figure.

China is a revisionist power which is making ridiculous and untenable claims over Arunachal Pradesh, Taiwan, most of the South China Sea, etc. Which is why China’s allies are states like North Korea, Pakistan and Iran. Now Russia is a member of this club. How depressing for the Russian people. History will judge President Putin very harshly on this account. The CPC/PLA is opaque and repressive; they are only interested in making the world safer for the CPC/PLA; it’s not an appealing vision.

[Pratyush]

Will it be easy for China to blockade the ports on the eastern side of the Taiwan?

1) Are they within the observation capacity of PRC?

2) Are they within the range of PRC anti ship missiles?

Modern day blockade don't require a gunship to park it self within sight of land to be effective.

[Pratyush]

The infrastructure can be enhanced, and in a war it can be degraded overnight. In wartime, a few pipelines can and will be destroyed in a matter of hours, as will the refineries that process the crude oil.

in war time, yes. But during peace time the USN blockade is defeated.

Saudi Arabia’s currency is pegged to the dollar. It is the foundation of their economic stability. One or two shipments paid in Yuan change nothing. And in wartime, the US will impose secondary sanctions i.e. trade with China will shut that country from the US financial system. Only Russia and Iran will take that risk, and Iran has no pipeline to China either.

1) Just because the Riyal is pegged to the dollar, doesn't preclude Yuan trade.

2) if a trade happens once in Riyal and Yuan once. It can happen regularly.

3) like the US has shut India down from the dollars for buying oil from Russia? There are hard limits on what the US can or cannot do.

4) So the US will sanction brazil and South Africa for trade with PRC? What then?

The strength of the US is economic, scientific, industrial, political, military and cultural. The US is far stronger than China on all these dimensions. President Xi’s daughter studies at Harvard. Go figure.

After her education in Harvard, will her loyalty be to the USA or PRC?

USAs cultural and scientific powers are not going to matter in the long run. Because the PRC is developing it's capacity to improve it's own scientific base.

China is a revisionist power which is making ridiculous and untenable claims over Arunachal Pradesh, Taiwan, most of the South China Sea, etc. Which is why China’s allies are states like North Korea, Pakistan and Iran. Now Russia is a member of this club. How depressing for the Russian people. History will judge President Putin very harshly on this account. The CPC/PLA is opaque and repressive; they are only interested in making the world safer for the CPC/PLA; it’s not an appealing vision.

1) PRC is doing what it think is good for it. Right or wrong/ morality of the actions make no difference.

2) Agreed, the allies that it has, are a global headache. But they also take energy and resources to manage.

3) The judgement of history is never final. Putin's interest is in re writing the post 91 European security architecture for Russia. A victory in Ukraine against a united West will accomplish this goal.

4) The rest of the world, have to either become strong enough to stand up to PRC. Or submit. There is no third option.

My whole contention is that the collective West, with it's actions in Ukraine has given rest of the world a choice. Either submit to western colonial powers. Or try to break the system of power.

The rest of the world has chosen to break the system of power. What you are seeing is the beginning of a brave new world.

The USA and Europe recognise what is happening. Thus, the war drums against PRC over Taiwan.

[eklavya]

But during peace time the USN blockade is defeated.

3) like the US has shut India down from the dollars for buying oil from Russia? There are hard limits on what the US can or cannot do.

4) So the US will sanction brazil and South Africa for trade with PRC? What then?

1) PRC is doing what it think is good for it. Right or wrong/ morality of the actions make no difference.

4) The rest of the world, have to either become strong enough to stand up to PRC. Or submit. There is no third option.

My whole contention is that the collective West, with its actions in Ukraine has given rest of the world a choice. Either submit to western colonial powers. Or try to break the system of power.

The USA and Europe recognise what is happening. Thus, the war drums against PRC over Taiwan.

A USN blockade of China will happen in response to a PLA blockade of Taiwan. A PLA blockade of Taiwan will be an act of war; it’s akin to strangulation / asphyxiation of the economy and society. There is no such thing as a “peace time blockade”.

The US has allowed Russian oil exports to continue to keep the oil price manageable for themselves and their partners, including India. In a war with China, taking Chinese demand off the market will both reduce oil prices and damage China’s ability to function.

If the PRC/PLA is fighting the USA, no merchant ship from Brazil or South Africa or anywhere else will bother sailing to China anyway.

PRC/PLA threaten the security and territorial integrity of India. Both by propping up the largest terrorist organisation in the world (Pakistan Army, to whom they have even given nuclear weapons, which is an unpardonable and vicious act of aggression against India) and by attacking India directly in Ladakh, Doklam, Arunachal Pradesh, etc. India will do what is right for her. What is right for India is to work with China’s enemies, USA included, to counter and blunt the threat from China. Russia is no longer reliable in this regard, as they have become totally dependent on China, and President Putin and President Xi share a (sickening, but) special relationship.

No amount of misinformation will change the facts: Russia is the aggressor in its invasion of a sovereign independent democratic Ukraine; if he had been successful in his aggression, President Putin would surely have taken all the credit for his victory; now that he has been frustrated and humiliated, he also needs to take the blame.

Similarly, a war over Taiwan will be started, if at all, by President Xi, not by Taiwan or its allies. I suspect that the disaster experienced by his friend President Putin has given President Xi some pause for thought, but it’s difficult to be sure (such are the dangers of one man rule, in Russia and China and elsewhere).

[sanman]

China is shoring up its continental land links by brokering peace between Iran and Saudi. They are securing their land links to Middle East, and onward to Europe too, by trying to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine. Zelensky seems to be seeking a chance to meet with Xi. Obviously US is opposed to all this. By having secure land links, then China becomes largely immune to any containment strategy by US Navy, and can fight for Taiwan with the sole goal of seizing the island.

There are some outlying islands of Taiwan which are very close to the Chinese mainland coast. Would the US-Taiwan security treaty be triggered if China seized those? Otherwise, why hasn't it done so?

[Deans]

The US Navy cannot get within range of the PLAAF and long range missiles operating from the mainland, which means they lack the means to seriously contest the blockade.

China would invite a blockade of its own ports if it blockaded Taiwan. They are totally dependent on imports of energy, etc. Suicidal move by China.

The USN does not have the means to blockade Chinese ports (it requires far more resources than what the PLAN needs to block Taiwanese ports).
Since it will be an act of war against China by the US, It will also invite a counter blockade of US ports. Even if that does not happen, the threat of a blockade will hit the US economy. China will be hit too, but US will not want to risk a collapse of its economy.
If hypothetically, a Saudi tanker is prevented from supplying oil to China, by the USN, will US risk being at war with Saudi too ?
The larger point is If China cannot export, US cannot import, since China is the US' biggest source of imports. That's a double whammy for US. China can do without US imports to a greater extent than US can do without Chinese imports.

Moreover Russia is now in a position to provide for China's oil and gas needs by overland shipment.

[Cyrano]

No amount of misinformation will change the facts: Russia is the aggressor in its invasion of a sovereign independent democratic Ukraine; if he had been successful in his aggression, President Putin would surely have taken all the credit for his victory; now that he has been frustrated and humiliated, he also needs to take the blame.

Similarly, a war over Taiwan will be started, if at all, by President Xi, not by Taiwan or its allies. I suspect that the disaster experienced by his friend President Putin has given President Xi some pause for thought, but it’s difficult to be sure (such are the dangers of one man rule, in Russia and China and elsewhere).

It seems you are at least misinformed or more likely unable to cope with the reality that it's time to recognise what type of actors US and it's allies really are. They coordinatedly parroted ad nauseum "Russia's unprovoked and illegal invasion" and like many people around you seem to have fallen for it. Re-reading this thread from the beginning may help.

[Vayutuvan]

US offers Nato seat to India

India's response hopefully would be "Nato only after Veto" (seat in UN)

[Kati]

A film which divides Poles and Ukrainians

https://neweasterneurope.eu/2017/01/23/ ... krainians/

[sanman]

Watch the whole thing - but especially pay attention @ 8:17




Wow, I thought I have a twisted imagination, but that's a diabolically cunning idea. What if China uses that against us?

[eklavya]

No amount of misinformation will change the facts: Russia is the aggressor in its invasion of a sovereign independent democratic Ukraine; if he had been successful in his aggression, President Putin would surely have taken all the credit for his victory; now that he has been frustrated and humiliated, he also needs to take the blame.

Similarly, a war over Taiwan will be started, if at all, by President Xi, not by Taiwan or its allies. I suspect that the disaster experienced by his friend President Putin has given President Xi some pause for thought, but it’s difficult to be sure (such are the dangers of one man rule, in Russia and China and elsewhere).

It seems you are at least misinformed or more likely unable to cope with the reality that it's time to recognise what type of actors US and it's allies really are. They coordinatedly parroted ad nauseum "Russia's unprovoked and illegal invasion" and like many people around you seem to have fallen for it. Re-reading this thread from the beginning may help.

Even Russian children know the truth about this war; the one unable to cope is the President of Russia.

Russia is persecuting dissenters by taking away their children

Russia is persecuting dissenters by taking away their children
A father imprisoned for his daughter’s anti-war drawing is just one case

A court in Russia on Tuesday convicted a single father over social media posts criticizing the war in Ukraine and sentenced him to two years in prison — a case brought to the attention of authorities by his daughter's drawings against the invasion at school, according to the man's lawyer and local activists. The 54-year-old Moskalyov, a single father of a 13-year-old daughter, was accused of repeatedly discrediting the Russian army, a criminal offense in accordance to a law Russian authorities adopted shortly after sending troops into Ukraine.

Mar 31st 2023 | YEFREMOV

The sentence handed down to Alexei Moskalyov on March 28th was outrageous: two years in a prison colony for posting a few anti-war comments on social media, which were investigated only after his daughter, Masha, made a pro-Ukrainian drawing in class. But prosecutors had signalled this was the sentence they required, and in Russia’s judicial system they were not going to be disappointed. The surprise was that the defendant was not actually in the room when the sentence was read out. After the verdict, the court press officer loudly explained why: he had fled house arrest overnight.

The prosecution and conviction herald a new type of Kremlin clampdown: separating families as a punishment for anti-war activism. Outside the courtroom, Mr Moskalyov’s lawyer, Vladimir Biliyenko, expressed shock. “Never have I seen a verdict delivered without a defendant,” he said. “All I can say is I hope he is safe. Where is a secondary concern to me.” A day later, Mr Moskalyov was detained in a safehouse in Minsk, the Belarusian capital. He had apparently been in the process of being smuggled to the West.

The Moskalyovs’ story began just under a year ago when Masha, 12 at the time, was asked to produce a drawing in support of Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. For most of the students at her school in Yefremov, a fossilised town five hours’ drive south of Moscow, it was a straightforward task. But Masha produced a drawing showing her understanding of the truths: a young family, missiles flying, with the captions “No to war” and “Glory to Ukraine.” Her horrified teacher reported the matter to the headmistress, who apparently passed it on to the police. A day later, both Masha and her father were frogmarched out of the school by men in uniform. “The other students looked out from the windows, as if we were terrorists,” Mr Moskalyov later told local media.

A case against Mr Moskalyov was opened when prosecutors discovered his own anti-war posts on social media. He was fined 32,000 roubles ($415) for expressing his anger over reports of Russian soldiers who had raped Ukrainian women. He tried to put a line under the incident by taking his daughter out of school and moving to another town. But just before the new year, security services again raided his home. Mr Moskalyov says they confiscated his family savings (worth about $4,750), beat him, smashed his head against the wall and played the Russian national anthem at high volume. Prosecutors opened a case against him for “repeated discrediting” of the Russian army, which could mean up to three years in jail and separation from his daughter.

On March 1st Mr Moskalyov was arrested on his way home from work. The same day, Masha was taken away and placed in a children’s home. A parallel process to strip Mr Moskalyov of parental rights, amounting to a complete separation between parent and child, is due to be heard on April 6th.

Mr Biliyenko said the legal process was being used to punish father and daughter for their anti-war positions. The two are very close, he said, and separation would hurt both of them: “They support each other. They are happy in each other’s company. Everything else is irrelevant for them.” A letter written by Masha from the shelter, later released by activists, emphasised the close bond. “Hi Dad,” the letter reads. “I love you a lot and want you to know that what you are doing is right…You are my hero.”

When your correspondent tried to visit the children’s shelter, a spartan building behind a tall green fence, a security guard shouted him away. Mr Biliyenko says he fears for Masha’s well-being, and that there are rumours she has attempted suicide.

Mr Moskalyov’s case is the most egregious of its kind, but similar ones have been reported elsewhere in Russia. In February police prosecuted a family in Moscow after their daughter posted a St Javelin avatar, a symbol of Ukrainian resistance, on social media. In Dagestan, a region in southern Russia, a schoolgirl was forced to apologise on camera after saying “Glory to Ukraine, Putin is a ********” at assembly on the last day of school.

And in Buryatia, in Siberia, authorities placed a 16-year-old disabled boy in care after his foster mother, Natalya Filonova, an anti-war activist, was arrested. His foster father was hospitalised after a heart attack. The boy was not allowed to attend his mother’s court case. A leaked recording of a conversation with an orphanage worker suggested Ms Filonovaya should have “known better…than to piss against the wind”.

According to ovd-Info, a human-rights watchdog, over 500 minors have been arrested and seven criminally prosecuted since the start of the war. With the authorities encouraging loyalists to snitch on their anti-war neighbours, the practice of hitting dissenters where it hurts—their families—is set to continue. “They will go after others, imprison more people, and take more children away from their parents,” says Mr Biliyenko. “Children of enemies of the state. That’s the example they are creating for anyone who might think about opening their mouth.” ■

[Cyrano]

You are quoting the economist. No point discussing further, believe what you will.

[YashG]

No amount of misinformation will change the facts: Russia is the aggressor in its invasion of a sovereign independent democratic Ukraine; if he had been successful in his aggression, President Putin would surely have taken all the credit for his victory; now that he has been frustrated and humiliated, he also needs to take the blame.

Similarly, a war over Taiwan will be started, if at all, by President Xi, not by Taiwan or its allies. I suspect that the disaster experienced by his friend President Putin has given President Xi some pause for thought, but it’s difficult to be sure (such are the dangers of one man rule, in Russia and China and elsewhere).

Russia is aggressor here only as much as US has been in Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan. And all powerful countries do that. There is no misinformation - Being the aggressor is how it works. Nothing bad about it - if you can pull it off.

Also Putin will have to take the blame but give him credit that he called off the bluff that west had pegged against him. That west will keep pushing against Russia but Russia will not retaliate because sanctions, because ICC, because UN, because trade, because isolation and what not.

In doing all the tricks west has exposed itself (its morality, oh 17 children died in ukrain e- evil russian and what about 17000 children died in Africa cause of climate change - evil who ?) and its institutions that kept a veil of neutrality , global order or multilateralism (world Bank doesnt give loans to war torn countries).

Ofcourse putin is going to bear the cost of snatching away West's veneer of morality and values but this was good move - yet another move toward global repositioning.

[drnayar]

[url=https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/0 ... r-children]Russia is persecuting dissenters by taking away their children

Economist has the one sided western narrative as always., just have a look at how they mention India as an autocratic country under a nationalist leader.

[RoyG]

Economist has the one sided western narrative as always., just have a look at how they mention India as an autocratic country under a nationalist leader.

Indians don't mind.

As long as an Indian family has someone as a green card holder/citizen all is well.

[Aditya_V]

More seriously, any updates on the Frontlines,

1) Status of battles in Kupyansk, Bakhmut , Lyman etc
2) When is predicted date for Ukrainian offensive towards Crimea
3) Will Ukraine try an Amphibious assault on Crimea or across the Dnieper

[eklavya]

Being the aggressor is how it works. Nothing bad about it - if you can pull it off.

President Putin really pulled it off this time (1,340 km longer border with NATO):

Nato's border with Russia doubles as Finland joins

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he was "tempted to say this is maybe the one thing we can thank Mr Putin for".
"Because he once again here has precipitated something he claims to want to prevent by Russia's aggression," he said.

Mr Stoltenberg said Nato would ensure Sweden would become the next member to join.

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/DivaJain2/status/16 ... 10976?s=20 ---> Too bad. This only was the tenth time in the last 5 months that the RUS army was supposed to collapse.

[Cyrano]

NATO won't matter for much longer and some Europeans are beginning to realise they have as much clout as Paki premiere league.