Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 04 Oct 2022 14:47

Why a big convoy is needed for tactical nukes in the Ukr theatre? They dont need to be lobbed thousands of kms? They dont need to be fired in dozens or 100s? If Russia had some intention to use them, they would have been moved closer to the front a long time ago. Not move them ostensibly now.

If Russia feels compelled to use nukes then it must be facing an existential threat as per its doctrine, right?
Which means Russian forces are on the verge of losing at least the entirety of the recently acceded 4 regions and Crimea. But thats hardly the case. No matter how much the media magnifies the AFU's localised tactical gains, or Russian retreats, they cant claim they have fully evicted Russia and are now posing an existential threat to the Russian Federation. They cant even claim having caused massive casualties on the Russian side - because they have to show huge amount of bodies and destroyed equipment in areas they wrested from Russian control. Which they dont have.

This frenzy over Russia's nuke usage is designed to keep the ill-informed European people polarised against Russia and preventing them from massively challenging their respective Govts. Of course nothing sells like a good scare and a doomsday prediction with simulations and death projections.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 04 Oct 2022 15:32

posturing only, with winter around weather is on Russia side and they will simply sit tight for Europe to suffer

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 05 Oct 2022 00:29

IndraD wrote:posturing only, with winter around weather is on Russia side and they will simply sit tight for Europe to suffer

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/nuclear- ... k-12711789
this day alone, have seen atleast 25 articles of this nature with same content & tone, literally begging for Russia to use nuclear so that west can justify the war, as winter is around.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 05 Oct 2022 03:33

Cyrano wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:Karan and JeM saars. Take a bow. One for providing tree top level analysis and lessons, and another for 30k feet map.
Second that! Superb posts guru jan!

And kudos to you and DeanS saar as well. Keep the discussions going, eminently readable stuff.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 05 Oct 2022 03:52

I hate being right all the time.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 05 Oct 2022 09:30

ks_sachin wrote:Presumably split across BTG or do the Russian Armd Bde operate independently of BTG's?

Ukrainian tank brigades operate as brigades (they haven't started the BTG concept).

In the Russian army, I don't think a Russian tank brigade is split into BTG's, because a BTG has 10 tanks and a Tank brigade 93.
A Russian Motorised rifle brigade has 30 tanks, so that is probably split into 3 BTG's of 10 tanks each. In reality a brigade probably splits into
2 BTG's, due to the shortage of functioning vehicles and manpower shortages.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 05 Oct 2022 15:13

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/ ... ktnjS6U3Kw
The consequences of the night arrival of "Gerani-2" at the location of the 72nd separate mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the White Church of the Kiev region.

apparently Iranian drones breathing fire! Something India may work on. Low cost high impact.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 05 Oct 2022 15:23

Why Iran in this conflict ? Is it western dramabaz or Irans frustration.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 05 Oct 2022 18:11

Russia-Ukraine War: India Offers To Contribute To Peace Efforts But Zelenskyy Says He Won't Negotiate With Putin, will only talk to Biden
https://swarajyamag.com/world/russia-uk ... with-putin

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 05 Oct 2022 19:48

Dr SJ recently said India is willing to play a more active role on the world stage. Coming as it does after his recent visit, where US would have told him "we don't mind if you want to give it a try" , it seems India has followed through and NaMo gave it a sincere try.

In my view we should stop here, spending any more effort with Zelinsky while the keys are with Biden will only make NaMo's further efforts look like a bigger failure.

Plus, there is so much twisted history and egos here that Z and Putin share no convergent interests to exist together. I'm afraid one of them has to go and that has to be Z. Then Biden's grip on the country will loosen a little and there will be a window for peace.

European mindset has been blood thirsty for millennia, they won't get NaMo's Gyan. NaMo should stop here if not he'll start looking like Macron.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 05 Oct 2022 20:00

Like I was suspecting about AFUs advances despite huge casualties:

More than 70 percent of Kyiv's forces in the direction of Luhansk are made up of foreign mercenaries

In the direction of Lugansk, 70 percent of Ukraine's forces are made up of mercenaries from European countries, said Colonel of the Police of the Luhansk People's Republic Vitaly Kiselyov. According to him, most of the mercenaries are from Poland, Finland, France, Italy, and Romania.

"The assault squads that are now trying to penetrate Svatovo and Kremena from the direction of Kharkiv are made up of Albanians, who are paid two to three thousand dollars a day. Salaries from European countries receive 35,000 to 40,000 dollars per month," said Kiselyov.

According to him, the main goal of Kyiv is now to conquer the "strategic plateau in the area of Svatovo" in that direction

There are plenty of videos posted by these mercenaries themselves to attest to the above.
https://t.me/loordofwar/50340

We will have to soon thank Russia for cleansing the world of Neo Nazis and mercenaries this time around.

CalvinH · Post by **CalvinH** » 05 Oct 2022 21:22

Whats the number of the mercenary force?

if the number is substantial than one needs to give US some credit for setting up this model quickly where a large size mercenary force can engage a large regular army with some backend (Artillery, intelligence, drone..) support.

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 05 Oct 2022 22:53

It certainly is impressive, too cobble together a mercenary force this quickly and enforce a numerical advantage over Russia during the counter offensive. I find it a little unreal on how Ukraine forces can advance this quickly and overrun Russian defences, which continue to remain unorganized

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 05 Oct 2022 23:08

Jacques Baud's latest article :

https://www.thepostil.com/kharkov-and-mobilization/

Quite long and detailed, with quite a few nuggets that are not well known outside Ukraine. A must read.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 05 Oct 2022 23:13

Nihat wrote:It certainly is impressive, too cobble together a mercenary force this quickly and enforce a numerical advantage over Russia during the counter offensive. I find it a little unreal on how Ukraine forces can advance this quickly and overrun Russian defences, which continue to remain unorganized

The US maintains an up to date global database of all for hire soldiers they have come in contact with or used in the past. France does the same related to its Foreign Legion. Lots of money being thrown at the problem for expendables.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 06 Oct 2022 00:31

Top Russian MP blasts Defense Ministry over Ukraine
Defense Committee chair Andrey Kartapolov calls for more truthful information from the frontlines https://www.rt.com/russia/564127-russia ... try-truth/

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 06 Oct 2022 04:22

CalvinH wrote:Whats the number of the mercenary force?

if the number is substantial than one needs to give US some credit for setting up this model quickly where a large size mercenary force can engage a large regular army with some backend (Artillery, intelligence, drone..) support.

Have they been dusting off old colonial WW1/2 doctrines ? They probably keep c&c, intel and stand-off weapons and once all OK let the ukr tear into the Roos

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 06 Oct 2022 04:31

Reports suggest massing of Russian arms + troops in Crimea.

And, in Belarus.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 06 Oct 2022 08:41

IndraD wrote:Top Russian MP blasts Defense Ministry over Ukraine
Defense Committee chair Andrey Kartapolov calls for more truthful information from the frontlines https://www.rt.com/russia/564127-russia ... try-truth/

The Commander of Russia's Western Military district was sacked a day after Lyman fell.
There are also several dismissals in military intelligence.
Kadyrov has been given the rank of Col General (4 star Gen) though technically a civilian. Thus the Kremlin is tacitly acknowledging that Kadyrov's
criticism of the army's leadership was correct. Traditionally, Russians do not ever publicly criticize the army in the middle of a war.
Even those who defended Gen Dvornikov, who was the main target of Kadyrov's criticism, have been concerned by the army's strategy.

While Kadyrov is a civilian, he's spent more time at the front than some generals involved in the Ukraine operation. He's also sent his 3 teenage sons (2 are underage) to the front as ordinary soldiers. His Chechen forces seem to have shown more fighting spirit than the Russians.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 07 Oct 2022 02:09

Cyrano, for your eyes only

THE CIA THOUGHT PUTIN WOULD QUICKLY CONQUER UKRAINE. WHY DID THEY GET IT SO WRONG?

Secret U.S. operations inside Ukraine are being conducted under a presidential covert action finding.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 07 Oct 2022 09:13

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense ... _army.html

Don't know what to make of it.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 07 Oct 2022 12:59

Based on some internet expert's ability to recognise the Indian variant from photos that need to be authenticated as taken from the current conflict in Ukraine.

Its possible that our T90s sent for upgrade can be thus diverted, but low probability it actually happened unless stronger evidence emerges from trustworthy sources.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 07 Oct 2022 13:05

Have we ever sent any of our tin cans to Russia for upgrades?

rajkumar · Post by **rajkumar** » 07 Oct 2022 13:09

Cyrano wrote:Its possible that our T90s sent for upgrade can be thus diverted, but low probability it actually happened unless stronger evidence emerges from trustworthy sources.

Actually I want these Indian tanks to be diverted one more nail in the coffin of the import lobby in New Delhi. Obviously India should get compensation from Russia in some form for the diversion.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 07 Oct 2022 13:11

NRao wrote:Cyrano, for your eyes only

THE CIA THOUGHT PUTIN WOULD QUICKLY CONQUER UKRAINE. WHY DID THEY GET IT SO WRONG?

Secret U.S. operations inside Ukraine are being conducted under a presidential covert action finding.

Did they need the CIA for this assessment? BRF could have told them.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 07 Oct 2022 13:25

NRao wrote:Cyrano, for your eyes only

THE CIA THOUGHT PUTIN WOULD QUICKLY CONQUER UKRAINE. WHY DID THEY GET IT SO WRONG?

Secret U.S. operations inside Ukraine are being conducted under a presidential covert action finding.

So the Russian military, MIC, and intelligence were so steeped in corruption from head to toe that neither Russian leadership nor American intelligence could get a sniff of it? And despite their recommendations, both countries leaders choose to do what they wanted and somehow it's working for the west but not for Russia?

This is the weirdest analysis I've come across ! And we must trust these fallible analysts on their views about nuclear threats and swallow iodine pills ?

There is undeniably a huge amount of corruption, misreporting and mismanagement on the Russian side, but guess what, this SMO has exposed a lot of it and corrective actions will be taken short term and long term.

European NATO forces have been mothballed for so long and are not immune to corruption and mismanagement either, and will throw up a bunch of surprises when they are put into the battlefield.

US forces if ever deployed in Ukraine against Russian forces will also throw up many inadequacies. American Intelligence by their own admission has been shoddy, so it's perhaps not outrageous to assume the US forces will be similar?

Heck I'll go out on a limb and say if ever we get into an intense and long drawn conflict many such inadequacies and problems will be discovered about India's forces as well. No large, well funded, rarely used complex system is immune to such dysfunction.

JMT.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 07 Oct 2022 19:54

I was not thinking as much about "analysis" as how NATO and now the US DoD itself have inserted themselves into the conflict. First covertly, now overtly.

Got to know that the Florida National Guards were training in Ukraine until Feb 20th, when they got pulled out anticipating an active conflict. That US/UK Special Ops is operating within the conflict zone is no surprise. Only a US/UK hand could have carried out the assassination of Darya Dugina - now the CIA, etc are claiming Ukraine did not keep them informed, as though Ukraine has the capabilities to carry out such an op by itself.

Now: Pentagon Plans to Set Up a New Command to Arm Ukraine, Officials Say

The Pentagon is preparing to overhaul how the United States and its allies train and equip the Ukrainian military, reflecting what officials say is the Biden administration’s long-term commitment to support Ukraine in its war with Russia.

The proposal would streamline a training and assistance system that was created on the fly after the Russian invasion in February. The system would be placed under a single new command based in Germany that would be led by a high-ranking U.S. general, according to several military and administration officials.

........................

A new command. With a US Army General commanding - as opposed to a NATO command with a US General commanding it.

I suspect this could mean that the US does not find Europeans to be reliable enough to stick to the plan. With Nord Streams inoperative (I believe one of them survived the attack) and the German proposal to prop up energy prices for their citizens (which breaks the EU's "collective" focus), I would not be surprised if the EU starts losing its cohesiveness. Followed closely by NATO.

bala · Post by **bala** » 07 Oct 2022 22:38

Cryano wrote:No large, well funded, rarely used complex system is immune to such dysfunction.

The larger and more complex the system becomes, the more prone they are towards rank stupidity and major faux pas (e.g. friendly fire, indiscriminate firing and mayhem). The US in particular is going down the totem pole on intelligence and common sense every day, I can't believe the amount of hubris churned out day in and day out. The average dude is getting more stupid, they lack critical thinking/ independent thinking / sane thinking. The Eurotards are getting the same disease as the US, more loud mouthing, more sheep like behaviour, nothing original except for heightened enmity/crudeness/narrow mindedness/viciousness. In a sea of stupidity major initiatives are made with lackluster execution and consequently a total clusterf&?k. The Britshits have a history of screwing up the world, anything they touch has become a festering problem for the world. The knowledge of English actually makes you stupider, not intelligent nor wiser. The English have no major contribution of any original idea for the world, except thievery of a high kind.

KrishnaK · Post by **KrishnaK** » 08 Oct 2022 03:05

NRao wrote:I was not thinking as much about "analysis" as how NATO and now the US DoD itself have inserted themselves into the conflict. First covertly, now overtly.

Got to know that the Florida National Guards were training in Ukraine until Feb 20th, when they got pulled out anticipating an active conflict. That US/UK Special Ops is operating within the conflict zone is no surprise. Only a US/UK hand could have carried out the assassination of Darya Dugina - now the CIA, etc are claiming Ukraine did not keep them informed, as though Ukraine has the capabilities to carry out such an op by itself.

Since we're in the business of proclaiming opinions, often baseless, as obvious facts, how about my own - it's far more likely that Ukraine, given it's geographically and culturally closer to Russia, is better suited to human intelligence and the Americans better at the technical aspects of it. It is far more likely that Ukraine carried it out compared to the Americans who pulled back their personnel at the slightest hint of risk.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 08 Oct 2022 07:33

We all believe what we want to and in line with our morality. Basic human psychology..

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 08 Oct 2022 11:29

On Russian partial mobilization:

200 of the 300k men called up, reported to their units and are undergoing training. The remaining 100,000 will join later. The constraint is
capacity to (re)train people, in terms of infrastructure and instructors. One therefore wonders why it did not start earlier - when 10,000 more
men could have saved Kharkov / Lyman.
Almost no cases of any of these 300k not reporting (only 1 person being prosecuted as a deserter).
70,000 who were eligible but not called up, volunteered for combat duty.

194,000 men (last available figure) left Russia to avoid conscription. However, very few had past military experience. Most from the Urban middle class who disliked Putin because of anti LGBT views, or because sanctions meant they can't have Starbucks. Some see it as a way to settle abroad.

Over a third of contract soldiers in the Russian army, deployed in Ukraine, have not extended their 6 month or 1 year contracts. Half of the newly mobilized men will be used to replace those departing contract soldiers (who may be subject to compulsory re-mobilization).
There is an option to extend the service of last year's conscripts who have completed their 1 year conscription on 1st Oct (that adds another 120,000 men). Conscripts from the Apr 22 Batch, who completed their basic training end Sept, can also be deployed to units in Ukraine, since they will be in Russian territory. That's another 120,000 men (240,000 conscripts who completed at least 6 months training, less those in the Air force or Navy or arms not required in Crimea).

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 08 Oct 2022 12:54

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63183404

Russia Crimea bridge on fire. I am beginning to think the conflict may go nuclear as well. This is the only bridge for connectivity. The Russians are unable to prevent sabotage and ensure security lately of their key assets. The US is playing a dangerous game of raising the temperature bit by bit.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 08 Oct 2022 13:07

Well, why do you think that the Ukrainians would need the US to tell the to hit the Russians where it hurts?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 08 Oct 2022 13:29

Crimea bridge attack is proper terrorist attack, vehicle IED used, so someone volunteered to drive it (soosai ied). This tactics was last seen in Iraq and came to an end with defeatof ISIS> now US is using it again.
Purpose of Crimea attack is optics: convince allies we are winning, pressurise Europas into keep fighting and keep Ukrops mobilised. Tell the world we are winning so 'can we keep fighting' it is no coincidence winter is around and attacks on Russian assets have increased significantly , hoping to engage Ru into using something spectacular like tacticals so that world opinion can be shaped against them including that of India & ME.

PS this is the first soosai bombing that the west is celebrating.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 08 Oct 2022 13:40

ks_sachin wrote:Well, why do you think that the Ukrainians would need the US to tell the to hit the Russians where it hurts?

Given that Nato and US have essentially devised the current offensive in Kherson i.e came up with the plan, provided the material there is precedence. Plus there are reports of CIA teams operating in Ukraine along with other myriad “advisers and observers”. It is not too much of a leap to assume this was done on their advice.

The bridge attack is escalatory without a doubt.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 08 Oct 2022 14:49

Russia has been mostly sparing Kiev and Lviv until now, and Ukranians want the Russians to raze these cities like Mariupol of Grozny so that Ukranians will hate Russia (ns) forever.
The Russian approach to this war needs to evolve now, there isn't much choice.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 08 Oct 2022 14:55

why has russia spared supply lines to Kiev from West> are they incapable?

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 08 Oct 2022 15:02

Laughable that the usual Russian fan boys are getting all bent up about a stupid bridge exploding. Russia has razed entire cities and killed thousands of people. Your hero Putin is not a saint.

Moderator note: Warning issued for use of inflammatory language vs other forum members and reducing the quality of discourse. Make your points in a civil fashion or not at all.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 08 Oct 2022 15:17

Wow such bile against country which has helped India on multiple fronts like UN, mil hardware, oil and more! this forum was/is Bharat not AMercia/dumbocrat/Nato rakshak. Re US/Nato they have bombed and taken half of the world to stone age! They are still saint?

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 08 Oct 2022 15:31

Tanaji wrote: The bridge attack is escalatory without a doubt.

It is escalatory and forces Russia to retaliate. Russia has seen Ukraine commit terrorist acts (as they define it) with impunity - weather assassinations in Moscow, or protected officials in the Donbass, shelling of Civilians and now attacks on the most high profile target, whose defense Russia made a priority. This, coupled with constant Ukrainian attacks all over the front, is lowering Russian morale. Unless there are massive strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, Putin will look useless.