Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

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NRao
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Industry Commissioner: EU Must Shift to Wartime Economy
Commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton discussed plans to bolster arms and ammo shipments to Ukraine during a sit-down with the Financial Times, saying he is working with the EU’s Foreign Policy Head Josep Borrell to expand industrial capacity in Europe, slash supply bottlenecks and pressure banks to boost their lending to facilitate military transfers to Kiev.

“I believe it is time that the European defense industry moves to a wartime economy model to cater for our defense production needs,” he told the outlet on Friday, adding that he and Borrell are “fully determined to support the production ramp-up of the European defense industry to face the realities of a high-intensity conflict – starting with the question of ammunition".

Though unnamed diplomats voiced their doubts to FT – with one asking “How are we going to pay for this?” {war-time economy = print money} – the efforts to speed deliveries to Kiev and replenish Europe’s own domestic stocks come after Ukrainian Defense Minister Aleksey Reznikov pleaded with the bloc for 250,000 artillery shells per month, vastly outpacing any existing EU plan.

In a letter to European defense chiefs on Friday, Reznikov spoke of the “crucial role” played by artillery on the battlefield, claiming Ukrainian troops burn through 110,000 155mm shells every few weeks.

Ukrainian troops are “limited by the amount of available artillery shells” and need at least 356,400 rounds per month to “successfully execute” their tasks – or a whopping 594,000 shells monthly to use their artillery power to full capacity, Reznikov claimed.

According to the Times, Borrell is aiming at a “less ambitious” scheme, instead hoping to disperse €1 billion over “the next few months” to partially cover the bill for donated shells from allies.

With costs soaring amid growing shortages on the continent, 155mm shells produced in Europe could run as much as €3,300 for a single round, a recent weapons contract inked between EU members suggests. Based on that estimate, the ammunition sought by Kiev could cost the bloc some €825,000,000 for just one month, though officials have yet to confirm any specific figures.

It is hard to trace how many shells Ukraine has been getting from the armories of its European backers, but over the past year the United States alone sent “over 1,000,000 155mm artillery rounds”, according to the Pentagon’s latest data.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CeJbmuRfvbo
regime needs that's the plan that is the plan and uh
2:48 all the Schultz he met with Joe bidenopoulos Greece's favorite son
2:53 the other day in uh in the White House and
3:00 according to Bloomberg and they're citing an unnamed German official as
3:06 their Source but according to Bloomberg what Biden discussed with Schultz was a
3:12 way to move German military industry out of Germany
3:19 and into the United States so that the German military industry can
3:26 start cranking out ammunition and weapons for the olesky regime the Biden
3:32 White House they were concerned that German industry
3:37 if it were to stay in Germany would have a difficult time shifting over to a
3:42 wartime economy because of all the uh regulations and red tape and protests
3:51 from the citizens and push back that the Biden White House came up with
3:57 the idea of just telling Schultz look just take your industry from Germany
4:03 and just move it to the U.S we don't have any of those issues and you can
4:09 produce the ammo that the olensky regime needs so that is the plan
4:15 that is the plan shifting to a war time economy that's how they are going to
4:21 defeat Russia
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPFxTU ... sHWg-UthSe
Jeffrey Sachs 1 day ago (edited)
CNN, citing its sources in the Ukrainian General Staff, reports that on February 28, 2023, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to:

▪️ 259,085 people killed, died from wounds, diseases;

▪️ wounded, crippled 246,904;

▪️ deserted, as well as missing - 83,952;

▪️ captured - 28 393.

You can lie all you want, but the numbers don't lie.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

I doubt CNN would publish any news which goes against the narrative
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by sanjaykumar »

Well folks the euros know how how to wage war.

600,000 casualties over one year.

India has had, what? Fewer than 10,000 war casualties since 1947

That’s why India will never be a superpower.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

sanjaykumar wrote:Well folks the euros know how how to wage war.

600,000 casualties over one year.

India has had, what? Fewer than 10,000 war casualties since 1947

That’s why India will never be a superpower.
We lost 150-300 KIA for each day of serious fighting in 1962, 65 & 71.
The Israelis lost approx. 150/ day in the 1973 war.

In Kargil, we lost (KIA) 6 men per division per day. The lower casualties per division per day, were probably the result of advances in medical
care and negligible use of armored and air power. The British army in the Falklands war had similar losses (3 per brigade per day, of ground
fighting).

The Russian army has similar losses - about 50 KIA per day for a force of approx. 10-12 divisions (4-5 per division per day). This is a country that's
much less casualty averse than we are.
Last edited by Deans on 05 Mar 2023 09:06, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Aditya_V wrote:I doubt CNN would publish any news which goes against the narrative
Its not on CNN's website, neither on Prof Sachs own website.

I find the number hard to believe. Ukraine had mobilised approx. 700,000 men (this is what all sides agree on).
Not all of them are in combat roles. If one assumes a very generous Tooth : Tail ratio, a max of 500,000 would have been in combat.

Ukraine's irrecoverable casualties (KIA+MIA+POW) as per this report, are more than 500,000

There is no part of the front where the Russians (who would have approx 300,000 men in combat units) seem to have any significant numerical
superiority.
It is unlikely that any unit (even in a professional army) that has taken over 50% casualties would still be able to resist fiercely, as Ukraine is
doing in Bakhmut or Ugledar, against sustained Russian artillery fire, that would have broken most armies.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

There have been 10 odd rounds of mobilisation plus nonstop rounding up of men and some women to be sent to frontlines as cannon fodder since months. No one knows the exact numbers for sure.

I suspect Russia might want to downplay the number of enemy casualties here on, since the numbers are ballooning and it would only make them appear horrendously brutal.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Aditya_V wrote:To do this kind of surveillance, US would have burnt up a lot of fuel in thier low orbit satellites, I'd doubt they can quickly replace them in numbers. Sooner rather later starlink and many low orbit satellites will go out of action. Things will get a lot worse for Ukraine this summer if Starlink and number of US satellites available for surveillance become reduced. It can create a gap in US surveillance which China can exploit for Taiwan in Aug 23. For our part we should make sure Chinadoes not surprise us.
Very astute observation saar !
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

Russia Is Getting Around Sanctions to Secure Supply of Key Chips for War
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ify%20wall
Russia looks to be successfully working around European Union and Group of Seven sanctions to secure crucial semiconductors and other technologies for its war in Ukraine, according to a senior European diplomat.
Russian imports in general have largely returned to their pre-war 2020 levels and analysis of trade data suggests that advanced chips and integrated circuits made in the EU and other allied nations are being shipped to Russia through third countries such as Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Kazakhstan, the diplomat said, pointing to those private assessments.
Russia was buying an average of $163 million worth of advanced chips and integrated circuits from the EU, the US, Japan and the UK each year between 2017 and 2021. In 2022, that slumped to about $60 million.
The data show Turkey, Serbia, the UAE and a half-dozen other economies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia helped make up the shortfall. Meanwhile, shipments of high-tech components to those countries from the allied nations surged by a similar amount.
The same sort of patterns are apparent across hundreds of product categories, but it is especially acute when it comes to advanced chips and integrated circuits that can be used for military purposes, the diplomat said.
With Russia’s war in Ukraine now into its second year, the EU and its allies are increasingly focused on tightening any loopholes and preventing successive rounds of sanctions they’ve introduced from being circumvented.
Evading the Tracking Systems
But tracking shipments isn’t a straightforward process. Buyers sometimes use complex corporate vehicles and distribution models to obscure the final destination of their goods. Incomplete paperwork can add to the opacity, as well as so-called transshipment points, where goods are moved between vehicles or rerouted.
On Thursday, the Biden administration released a compliance note aimed at cracking down on intermediaries used to evade sanctions and export controls on Russia. The notice names China, Armenia, Turkey and Uzbekistan as locations that may be used to illegally redirect restricted items to Russia.
The G-7 announced last week a new mechanism to bolster enforcement and the EU has also introduced several tools in its recent packages to go after those aiding Russia.
But EU countries have so far been shy about using some of those tools and going after potential breaches at home, at least publicly. Discussions on toughening up the EU’s enforcement regime has opened a debate over where the share of responsibilities between Brussels and Europe’s capitals should lie when it comes to policing measures, officials and diplomats say.
Patchwork of Enforcement
“It would of course be more convenient for everybody if there was one EU level institution in charge,” Toms Platacis, the acting director of the Latvian Financial Intelligence Unit, said in an interview.
Latvia has criminalized sanctions violations, while other EU countries have not, so violators can “look for other countries where evading sanctions carries less potential penalty,” he said.
In implementing successive rounds of sanctions, EU nations have been careful to limit the impact on their own bottom line and the wider global economy. That has at times led to often tortuous discussions between member states over exemptions and reporting requirements.
With every round of sanctions we take a step forward with new measures and one step back with new exemptions, one senior European minister said. Some member states are less enthusiastic about enforcement and are not doing enough, the minister added.
“Enforcement of export sanctions is not trivial,” said Beata Javorcik, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. “Every government wants all other countries to enforce them but prefers to be lenient vis-a-vis its own firms. The experience with export restrictions during the Cold War shows this clearly. Thus, leaving enforcement of sanctions to national governments may not always work perfectly.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

Rheinmetall in talks on building tank factory in Ukraine - report
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 023-03-04/

The news about plans by Rheinmetall to build a tank factory in Malorossiya, looks like Kiev regime’s primitive trolling. If krauts still go on with it for real, they’re very welcome. The decision should be greeted with fireworks by Kalibres and other Russian pyrotechnic devices https://twitter.com/MedvedevRussiaE/sta ... 69698?s=20
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

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SCOTT RITTER AND ANDREI MARTYANOV: ON POLAND, KIEV AND RUSSOPHOBIA
I know that there are troops Gathering
1:55 polish troops and NATO troops gathering on the border with Belarus
35 minutes long

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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

https://twitter.com/ricwe123/status/163 ... 51232?s=20 Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) vows to keep funding the Ukraine war because "chewing up" the Russian army has always been a central US objective.

"We're having the Ukrainians do that right now, in a sense, for us"
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Happy Holi everyone.

Biden officials privately doubt that Ukraine can win back all of its territory
White House officials are losing confidence that Ukraine will ever be able to take back all of the land it has lost to Russia over the past four months of war, US officials told CNN, even with the heavier and more sophisticated weaponry the US and its allies plan to send.

Advisers to President Joe Biden have begun debating internally how and whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should shift his definition of a Ukrainian “victory” – adjusting for the possibility that his country has shrunk irreversibly.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

IndraD wrote:https://twitter.com/ricwe123/status/163 ... 51232?s=20 Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) vows to keep funding the Ukraine war because "chewing up" the Russian army has always been a central US objective.

"We're having the Ukrainians do that right now, in a sense, for us"
In theory, this makes sense i.e. destroys Russian capability with little cost to US. In reality:

1. Direct cost to NATO in arms transfers exceeds the cost to the Russian defense budget.
2. 160-200 Billion fall in EU's GDP, in 2022, estimated as a result of the war.
3. 100 Billion loss to Ukraine's GDP, in 2022.
4. Similar cost in 2023 (items 1-3)
5. Cost of EU subsidies on energy and cost of Refugees for 2 years ($100 Bln)

For Russia:

1. Incremental defense spend - Approx $ 30 billion (most consumption is old stocks)
2. Fall in GDP in 2022 ( $ 50 billion)
3. Unproductive spends ($ 10 billion) - moving workers to supporting the war effort, ex gratia payments, rebuilding Donbass.

This excludes frozen assets, or opportunity cost of higher energy sales to EU.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by A Deshmukh »

Deans wrote:1. Direct cost to NATO in arms transfers exceeds the cost to the Russian defense budget.
Sir,
Can we try to segregate NATO costs and US Costs?
I am assuming US Costs in arms and aid to Ukraine will all be in costly loans. US will make money even here.
Replenishment orders will only add and not deduct from the US economy.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

A Deshmukh wrote:
Deans wrote:1. Direct cost to NATO in arms transfers exceeds the cost to the Russian defense budget.
Sir,
Can we try to segregate NATO costs and US Costs?
I am assuming US Costs in arms and aid to Ukraine will all be in costly loans. US will make money even here.
Replenishment orders will only add and not deduct from the US economy.
US is the biggest gainer (with Norway).
- All arms transfers from US to Ukraine are paid for by US govt to US Military industrial complex.
- All Soviet era weapons transferred by NATO to Ukraine are replaced by US made weapons. e.g. Poland gets M1 Abrams in exchange for the
T-72s supplied to Ukraine.
- US does not import oil and Gas (net import of Oil is close to 0 and it exports gas).

The point in my post is that Europe loses more than Russia. I haven't looked at the cost to US, since in my view, its a net gainer financially.
In the longer term, in my opinion, it will cost the US if major countries drop the Dollar. It has also pushed Russia, China & Iran firmly into 1 camp.
China will fight the next war with no threat to their Oil and gas supply chain, which has hitherto come by sea.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

Ukraine names unarmed, smoking soldier shot by Russians

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64872623

reports like these indicate US/Nato is clearly frustrated & losing ground, cos Ru is claiming it is their soldier shot dead.

also reports of flip flop on Bakhmut.
Z in Morning: we are leaving B
Eve: we will fight Bakhmut to the last Ukr...
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Avid »

Deans wrote:
US is the biggest gainer (with Norway).
- All arms transfers from US to Ukraine are paid for by US govt to US Military industrial complex.
- All Soviet era weapons transferred by NATO to Ukraine are replaced by US made weapons. e.g. Poland gets M1 Abrams in exchange for the
T-72s supplied to Ukraine.
- US does not import oil and Gas (net import of Oil is close to 0 and it exports gas).

The point in my post is that Europe loses more than Russia. I haven't looked at the cost to US, since in my view, its a net gainer financially.
In the longer term, in my opinion, it will cost the US if major countries drop the Dollar. It has also pushed Russia, China & Iran firmly into 1 camp.
China will fight the next war with no threat to their Oil and gas supply chain, which has hitherto come by sea.
Biggest economic loser: Ukraine
1) All US aid is lend/lease and will have to be repaid. There is no precedence where it has been waived. Even UK had to repay from WW2.
2) Unsure if the backfill of soviet weaponry counts as aid as well. In which case, Poland/Slovakia/etc. have gotten free upgrades to their soviet era weaponry.

Biggest winner: US
It has lost no money in this at all. It has gained market for MIC, plus for O&G firms (not to mention the increased profits for O&G).
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

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Ukraine mobilizing to attack Melitopol?

https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/rid ... -the-river
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

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Avid wrote:Ukraine mobilizing to attack Melitopol?

https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/rid ... -the-river
Honestly, what kind of armour Ukraine have with which they can sink teeth into Russian forces???

Mostly it will become another meat grinder!!
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Post by IndraD »

what is the method in madness to u turn and decision to defend Bakhmut against odds!! What has changed have US weapons arrived?
Last edited by IndraD on 08 Mar 2023 00:41, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by IndraD »

but so far we were told Bakhmut is not important? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/6 ... es-bakhmut
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Arima wrote:
Avid wrote:Ukraine mobilizing to attack Melitopol?

https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/rid ... -the-river
Honestly, what kind of armour Ukraine have with which they can sink teeth into Russian forces???

Mostly it will become another meat grinder!!
When it is not your own family, and there is no real uproar -- that armor is made of poor people under the care of the state.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

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IndraD wrote:but so far we were told Bakhmut is not important? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/6 ... es-bakhmut
Apparently, he think they are also having good results (source is Financial Times):
https://archive.is/20230307122400/https ... e9c8eb286f
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The panic is showing. Losses are colossal, inventories are nearly empty, hundreds of billions gone and nothing but failure to show for it. Sniffersky's days are numbered.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

Bakhmut is for each side is too how much resources the other side is loosing while keeping their own losses to a minimum. Now the season will be totally muddy for the next 3 months, the best season to attack will be the June 15-Sep-15 window for both sides.

They will both be keeping their powder dry for this period.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Arima »

Aditya_V wrote:Bakhmut is for each side is too how much resources the other side is loosing while keeping their own losses to a minimum. Now the season will be totally muddy for the next 3 months, the best season to attack will be the June 15-Sep-15 window for both sides.

They will both be keeping their powder dry for this period.
3 month is enough time for deepstate to fund and arm Ukraine to raise another army.
Russia cannot afford to extend this war when Ukraine is at its weakest point which is now.
In 3 months leapords and even F16, 150km+ rockets will come into play.
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Boys with toys don't an army make ©
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

The deep state raised a very formidable Ukrainian army for 8 years.

Raising another army may not be an issue, but the time that the army has to deliver for Biden to run again would be very, very short.

Of course imagined Russian re-intervention in elections, pro-Ukrainian groups in Ukraine blowing pipelines, etc are very good fallback options.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

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So, on the Nordstream -- here's something a German journalist was saying on BBC (I cannot find the conversation in print).
  • It was 5 men and 1 woman.
  • The fake passports presented were of very high quality, which indicated involvement of state actor.
  • They rented a boat -- and Germans have found explosive residue in the boat that matches the unexploded explosive recovered from the pipeline.
  • The depth of pipeline where explosion occurred is 80m -- beyond the capacity of regular divers; and skillset possessed only by very specialized trained divers and equipment of which there are very few in the world. Which again points to involvement of a state actor.
Given this I am not sure that the evidence was meant to throw investigation off into wrong direction. Why? I do not see how you would use such a boat (they mentioned a yacht) could lower 1000 lbs of explosives to the depth of 80m and place it! It would mean that it is 250 lbs each (x4); but then I also don't know the many ways in which such heavy explosive can be transported from a boat into the water and to the depths necessary and then be placed precisely.
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Post by Yagnasri »

Fake news is deliberately put out to divert the fingers that are now being pointed at the US.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Rakesh »

Russia remains a ‘very capable’ cyber adversary, Nakasone says
https://www.c4isrnet.com/cyber/2023/03/ ... sone-says/
07 March 2023
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

German news paper

Nord Stream investigations: Traces lead to Ukraine
Investigators have identified the boat from which the Nord Stream attacks were carried out. Apparently it was rented by a company owned by Ukrainians.
(I have a bridge in London to sell, along with a big clock)
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They rubbished Seymour Hersh story when it broke. They ensured the MSM didn't pick it up and launch TV whodunnit debates. The report was on the way out of immediate public memory. The victim countries Germany, France, Russia as shareholders in NS were mostly silent. Aam janta here resigned to their high energy bills and inflation.

Then why cook up this gruyère cheese of a story now? What are they trying to cover up now?
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Post by Avid »

Cyrano wrote: Then why cook up this gruyère cheese of a story now? What are they trying to cover up now?
It appears to be a pattern formed over a string of articles that aim to take the shine out of the image that they built up of Zelensky and Ukraine. Be it drone strikes in Russia, not pulling back from Bakhmut, etc.
By not (yet) directly pinning this on Zelensky, it might be a warning for him to fall in line otherwise they might pin it on him.

Why? IMHO -- reality is dawning that this needs to wrap up before elections next year (2024 presidential elections) -- if Biden is to have a chance. Something like this is not going to come to a close right away. Recall Korean war was a grinding war for 3 years while they negotiated. They will want the war to turn into a low attrition war by the time Nov 2024 comes, and with negotiations at peak that make Biden look good.

Alternatively, there is some serious fear that the mad dogs are not staying on the leash and could cause crazy escalation. This might be an attempt to reign them in.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

missile barrage on Ukraine: 80 were fired 100 were intercepted

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... sa-kharkiv
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