Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[YashG]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/us/p ... nsive.html
Ukraine’s Spring Offensive Comes With Immense Stakes for Future of the War

WASHINGTON — Ukraine is preparing to launch a counteroffensive against Russian forces as early as next month, American officials say, in the face of immense risks: Without a decisive victory, Western support for Ukraine could weaken, and Kyiv could come under increasing pressure to enter serious negotiations to end or freeze the conflict.

American and NATO allies have supplied Ukraine with extensive artillery and ammunition for the upcoming battle, and officials now say they are hopeful the supplies will last — a change from two months ago when weapons were only trickling in and U.S. officials were worried that the supplies might run out.

At the same time, 12 Ukrainian combat brigades of about 4,000 soldiers each are expected to be ready at the end of April, according to leaked Pentagon documents that offer a hint of Kyiv’s timetable. The United States and NATO allies are training and supplying nine of those brigades, the documents said.

Although Ukraine shares few details of its operational plan with American officials, the operation is likely to unfold in the country’s south, including along Ukraine’s coastline on the Sea of Azov, near the Russian-annexed Crimea.

/..............

The chances that Mr. Putin will back down or cut his losses in response to a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive, the senior European official said, were “less than zero.” Instead, the official said, Mr. Putin will likely opt to call up more soldiers and send them in.

Celeste A. Wallander, the U.S. assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, said there is no sign that Mr. Putin is ready for a compromise. “There is very little evidence and little reason to believe that Putin will give up on his strategic goal of subjugating Ukraine politically, if not fully militarily,” she said in an interview. “It’s been his goal, not just for a year, but it’s been going on for nearly a decade. So there’s no sign he’s giving up on that.”

Is posting articles in full okay ? Or this could lead to copyright notice to BR ?

[IndraD]

many of them are behind paywall hence....

[YashG]

nytimes articles' primary audience is usually the american public > overseas public > overseas mid-level policy makers. In this scheme of things it doesnt do any service to western media to use it as a misinformation article. Expecting russian to make their calculations based on nytimes is like expecting US to do it based on RT.

[MeshaVishwas]

He says Ukraine has already burned through its own stocks of Grad ammunition, so is relying on rockets sourced from other countries. Volodymyr says supplies are coming from the Czech Republic, Romania and Pakistan. He complains the rockets originating from Pakistan are "not of a good quality".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65347835

[Tanaji]

There is another article that states that Ukraine has now gotten 98% of their required weapons for the counter offensive.

The reality is probably somewhere in between as usual

[Avid]

There is another article that states that Ukraine has now gotten 98% of their required weapons for the counter offensive.

The reality is probably somewhere in between as usual

What proportion of the 98% do we think got targeted in the latest missile strike?

[IndraD]

Possible Ukrainian counter-offensive would be very risky, warns Swiss military expert
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/politics/p ... t/48468368

[Pratyush]

There is another article that states that Ukraine has now gotten 98% of their required weapons for the counter offensive.

The reality is probably somewhere in between as usual

This not for the upcoming offensive.

It's the total pledged quantity.

This was under 35 % of the total quantity demanded by Ukrainians during the late December.

[ramana]

CNA report:

https://www.cna.org/reports/2023/04/Rus ... ations.pdf

[IndraD]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 023-04-29/

Poland seized diplomatic school of Russia based in Warsaw

[sanman]

How true is this picture?

[Aditya_V]

Scott Ritter has been claiming Ukraine will collapse next week for a year, like pro western propaganda it should be taken with buckets of salt.

[drnayar]

There is another article that states that Ukraine has now gotten 98% of their required weapons for the counter offensive.

The reality is probably somewhere in between as usual

This not for the upcoming offensive.

It's the total pledged quantity.

This was under 35 % of the total quantity demanded by Ukrainians during the late December.

Are the Russians going to sit back if the ukies go after crimea?!... the west [america] has no qualms pushing the nuclear threshold..After all they are not in the same continent !!

[RoyG]

This not for the upcoming offensive.

It's the total pledged quantity.

This was under 35 % of the total quantity demanded by Ukrainians during the late December.

Are the Russians going to sit back if the ukies go after crimea?!... the west [america] has no qualms pushing the nuclear threshold..After all they are not in the same continent !!

They're going to absorb it and counterpunch.

[Roop]

Are the Russians going to sit back if the ukies go after crimea?!...

Of course they won't "sit back" -- they will retaliate with missile strikes against US military bases in Germany / Poland / UK.

the west [america] has no qualms pushing the nuclear threshold..After all they are not in the same continent !!

WTH does "same continent" have to do with anything? Do you think Russians don't have missiles that can reach out and touch the continental US? American neocons are like Pakis, really -- full of bluster/blowhard, but unable to intimidate anyone with equal nuclear power. And Russia has that power.

[ks_sachin]

First let them capture Bakhmut. All this power is useless when military targets in front of you cannot be addressed adequately.

[Pratyush]

What's the hurry. It's not like the Russians had published a time table that we will capture x city by y date.

All deadlines that I am aware of, have been published by NATO.

[ks_sachin]

No but you also want to create the advantageous positions that will narrow your opponent’s elbow room. If Bakhmut is not important then why waste time. Use your troops to consolidate what you have.
But right now they throw in troops willy nilly as if it is of no concern. The more this goes on the more it gives oxygen to the Ukrainians.
War is not only about guns and bullets etc it is also about psychology.

[Pratyush]

War is about destroying your enemies will in order to impose your will on the adversary after the war.

Bakhmut, is the keystone in terms of Ukrainians ability to contest the control of the east against the Russians.

Ukraine is fighting to the bitter end. I submit that this suits the Russians just fine. Because it enables them to destroy the Ukrainians ability to wage war.

Zelensky towards the end of March in an interview with some western news agency has admitted that if Ukraine lost Bakhmut. They will have to negotiate with the Russians.

This war will end in Russian victory. Today or 3 years from today. Makes no difference.

[Yagnasri]

What is the war aims of RF?

1. Liberate specified regions from UKN. This is almost done.
2. Denazification of the UKN. - Work in progress.
3. Demilitarisation of UKN - Massive killings of UKN forces are ongoing. Bakmuth is one of the areas where this decimation of UKN forces is going on.
4. No NATO membership for UKN - It will not happen anytime soon.

So let us see.

[Tanaji]

As Pratyushji has stated, there is no particular reason for Russia to take Bakhmut. It is a strategic town that controls supplies and control of that opens up the Ukrainian hinterland, but Russia has no plans to go deep there, it simply does not have the resources to sustain that adventure. Instead the goal is to force UKA into that meat grinder and keep destroying their men. There have been reports of UKA men questioning the logic of attacks on Bakhmut and why they were playing to Russian aims…


Another article on the upcoming invasion:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/we ... r-AA1axE1p

230 tanks
1550 armoured vehicles
9 new armoured brigades

[williams]

if you take away all the elements of the cloud of war it comes down to how different is the thinking of leaders Zelensky and Putin. Zelensky is trained in the Army and then he became an actor. So he is looking for ways to use raw power backed by the West. Putin on the other hand has a KGB background and is used to being cornered without any support and yet surviving and if given a chance will go for the kill. If you ask me, Putin would have thought about this war dragging for more than a year and the West backing Zelensky the way they are doing it now. No one will know what he thinks is the ultimate objective. He knows Biden cannot sustain this kind of support when the election season starts in a few months. Biden has to pull the economy from the brink and cannot go on a spending spree if the American people don't see anything in return. Ukraine on the other hand simply does not have the manpower to defend, let alone go for a counter-offensive. So Putin is going to wait this out. Delay the whole thing as much as possible with small skirmishes and strikes here and there. The moment media attention is turned to US elections, Zelensky is toast. Then Putin can negotiate his own terms of the cease-fire. End of the day, Putin has gained some territory and understood how Europe and US will react. Biggest losers are the Ukrainians who got their country completely destroyed and war-torn.

[MeshaVishwas]

“… their Iranian weapon, which he believed had been confiscated by the United States & delivered to Ukraine, was less accurate than Western-built models. And the Pakistani & Soviet-era shells they have in their arsenal, while sufficient in quantity, at times failed to detonate.”

-British Journo Shashank Joshi on Twitter(Quoting NYT)

[YashG]

I sometimes wonder why wagner is not recruiting from (in a clandestine way) from middle-east/Afghanistan. These guys have their own axe to grind with US. Most of them know more than enough about firearms , mostly already trained on AK47 and can operate in small groups.

I can only think of one drawback which is of adding a jehadist tone to wagner troops and loosing some narrative. (could be a big reason though)

[Pratyush]

There were reports very early on in the conflict. That the Russians were indeed using Syrians and former Afghan National army troops in combat.

But they were never confirmed.

[Avid]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65446525

Pavlohrad, a logistics hub near the central city of Dnipro, was hit ahead of a much-anticipated counter-offensive by Ukraine.
...
The most significant damage was in Pavlohrad, a city in Ukrainian-held territory around 70 miles (110km) from the frontline. Pictures posted on social media showed a massive blaze.

One resident, Olha Lytvynenko, said she was getting dressed to leave their house when "both doors were smashed out by the explosion wave".

"I ran outside and saw that the garage was destroyed. Everything was on fire, glass shards everywhere. Had we been outside, we would have been killed," she said.

Context: Pavlohrad is just outside of Dnipro
According to many reports it was the ammunition depot that got hit. The description included above would also indicate it was most likely an ammunition depot.
On Twitter, there are number of first hand videos from the area

[YashG]

https://eurasiantimes.com/russian-decoy ... nful-blow/

Details how russia might be causing ukraine headache from the skies; falls in line with increasing greater involvement of the russian air force.

[Tanaji]

https://eurasiantimes.com/ukraine-milit ... s-not/?amp

Some M109 guns supplies are not working and need more maintenance.

This is just one of the issues that you see when you have a hodge podge of equipment. Expect this happen to tanks as well.

[ramana]

We see increasing use of long-range and stand-off weaponry to avoid losses.

[mody]

We see increasing use of long-range and stand-off weaponry to avoid losses.

Stand off precision guided weapons from the short range 15-40 Kms range type weapons like the Brimstone or glide bombs like Garuda/Gautam to longer range glide and powered weapons with ranges of upto 200Kms are going to be the order of the day.
Loitering ammunition and suicide drones are also going to become more and more necessary for the future battlefield. CATS warrior type of programs are absolutely essential. Given the effectiveness and sophistication of air defense systems, using manned aircrafts will be increasing risky. The cost of modern aircrafts and of the highly trained man power is just too high. Against an adversary with a good modern distributed, networked, multi layered air defense network, almost all the airforces in the world will struggle, including the mighty USAF.

Going forward, the lesson for India and everyone else from this conflict are probably the following:
1). War is a very serious business and the political and military leadership have to be very clear in their objectives and aims while wadding into one.
Most plans will not survive in an actual war and hence multiple contingency plans should be prepared, while also always re-evaluating the original objectives and aims of the war. If the war is deviating from the original aims and objectives of the war, the political and military leadership should be prepared to re-evaluate and take difficult decisions if necessary, including drastically changing the course of the conflict or making any neccesary compromises and ending the war altogether.

2). Multi-layered round the clock ISR capabilities from Space all the way down to human intelligence are required. Likewise a very strong and comprehensive EW and cyber warfare capability is required. The EW and cyber warfare capability will be both offensive and defensive.

3). Domestic manufacturing and industrial base is critical. No one can fight with imported weapons, unless one is prepared to mortgage the entire country like in the case of Ukraine. A domestic MIC and indigenous defense equipment and systems are absolutely necessary.

4). Precision guided and standoff weapons, loitering ammunition and suicide drones are going to be very critical. These have to cover the entire spectrum from very low cost, short range (5-15Kms), command line of sight types to satellite guided, to ones having sophisticated sensors and seekers for autonomous operation. The last type are still not in use, but certainly under development and in the future we will most certainly see IA powdered autonomous loitering systems that can take out targets without continuous human intervention or guidance.

5). Low cost of suicide drones and swarm drone type systems and of loitering ammunition will be crucial. There will also be high end systems that cost more and have a greater range and very high sophistication of sensors and both types of systems will be required.

6). In India's context, indigenous high end precision guided weapons for specialised roles like bunker busting etc. is required. Currently we rely on imported systems for the same. We need a range to indigenous silver bullet type systems, that don't cost an arm and leg. We are progressing well in areas like Anti-Radiation and Anti-Ship Missiles, but more systems are needed.

7). A well trained non-politicised man power is crucial. The bureaucratic and non-military functions should be outsourced to civilian contractors, as much as possible and the teeth to tail ratio of the military needs to be optimum. In this aspect, it is likely that the paki military might get exposed in case of any future large scale conflict.

[sudhan]

The Pavlohrad explosion was truly massive, to an untrained eye it could have looked like a tactical nuclear strike.

It looked to me that the target was holding a lot of solid rocket propellant. The tell tale blazing burning chunks with bright white smoke trails being thrown up was quite something..

[MeshaVishwas]

Russia warns of ‘retaliation’ for Ukrainian attack on Kremlin - RT

Russia reserves the right to retaliate “anywhere and anytime it deems necessary” in response to the drone attack on President Vladimir Putin’s residence, the Kremlin has said.

Officials said two Ukrainian drones attempted to strike the Kremlin early on Wednesday morning, but the raid was thwarted. The president was not hurt in the “terrorist attack,” and the Kremlin complex did not suffer any damage, Putin’s office said.

Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told RIA Novosti that the Russian leader was not in the Kremlin when the raid happened. He added that Putin was working at his Novo-Ogaryovo residence near Moscow on Wednesday.

[sudhan]

Russia warns of ‘retaliation’ for Ukrainian attack on Kremlin - RT

Russia reserves the right to retaliate “anywhere and anytime it deems necessary” in response to the drone attack on President Vladimir Putin’s residence, the Kremlin has said.

Officials said two Ukrainian drones attempted to strike the Kremlin early on Wednesday morning, but the raid was thwarted. The president was not hurt in the “terrorist attack,” and the Kremlin complex did not suffer any damage, Putin’s office said.

Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told RIA Novosti that the Russian leader was not in the Kremlin when the raid happened. He added that Putin was working at his Novo-Ogaryovo residence near Moscow on Wednesday.

Saw the video.

The drone is too small to have been launched from Ukrainian territory. Must've been launched by covert operators.

Or, a false flag operation by Russia to climb up the escalation ladder..

[YashG]

internal arsonists perhaps….

[Dilbu]

21 killed as Russia attacks Kherson, explosions heard in Kyiv after drone attack in Kremlin

Russia launched one of its deadliest attacks on Kherson, hitting a supermarket, a railway station and other civilian targets. At least 21 people were killed and 48 injured in the attack, reported a local media outlet, Kyiv Post. Meanwhile, two loud explosions were heard in Ukraine’s capital city Kyiv, reported the Kyiv Independent on Thursday. Kyiv City Military Administration said air defence is at work.Ukrainian air defense has also been reported at work in Kyiv Oblast, the oblast military administration said. Kyiv Oblast Military Administration warned about a possible drone attack and urged residents to remain in shelters. Air raid alerts have been on in Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia regions, and the city of Kyiv.

The attack intensified across Ukraine after Russia claimed that there was an attempt made to kill President Vladimir Putin by Ukraine in a drone attack.

[Avid]

The Pavlohrad explosion was truly massive, to an untrained eye it could have looked like a tactical nuclear strike.

It looked to me that the target was holding a lot of solid rocket propellant. The tell tale blazing burning chunks with bright white smoke trails being thrown up was quite something..

Solid rocket propellant -- could still have been from any number of ammunitions not just old missiles that were stored there. I am inclined to believe it was ammo depot - considering the location. It is situated right along the north-south supply routes; close to a train station; and exactly where ammunition most likely is off-loaded and stored. The positioning is such that it would keep Russians guessing whether it would be moved north or south for the coming offensive.

If Ukraine was in possession of old solid fuel ballistic missiles, it would have been working round the clock to repurpose those much like it repurposed the ancient TU-141 drones.

[YashG]

Unless russia achieves round the clock destruction of ukraine ammo depots and machinery, it will not decidedly change the momentum.

[pravula]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... e-patriot/

Ukraine has intercepted a Russian hypersonic missile for the first time, it has been reported.

[drnayar]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... e-patriot/

Ukraine has intercepted a Russian hypersonic missile for the first time, it has been reported.

coming from that source we are supposed to believe it

[IndraD]

Russia’s jamming of US-provided rocket systems complicates Ukraine’s war effort
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/05/poli ... index.html