Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 07 May 2023 15:54

We've been told Russians are incompetent and fighting with rusty metal boxes until now ?!

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 May 2023 15:55

wagner head Pirozin has once again lashed out at Kremlin, threatens to withdraw his men.
Apparently Wagner being replaced by Kadyrov men now.
And Russian handles claiming project Bakhmut is over and the entire town roasted cooked and smoked nothing stands there.
Russian army moving on to next target.
Meanwhile much hyped counter offensive coming around Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Russia evacuating its citizens.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 07 May 2023 16:08

Ukraine has been obsessive about Zhaporizhiya and Crimea for important reasons.

EU signed an agreement with Ukr to buy its surplus electricity production and funded billions to modernise Ukr power grids to become compatible with technical EU standards. Fulfilling this will be impossible without having control of the biggest plant which is ZNPP. There will be therefore support & pressure from EU to take this region. I suspect Ukr has been told its EU entry process depends on this.

Similarly, taking Crimea which has Sebastopol - the biggest port is essential to control the Black Sea and its long been a US/NATO dream to put a base there to effectively box in Russian navy, thus cutting off its warm seas and Mediterranean access. As a bonus, it will help them hold a knife to the back of Turkey. Ukr's NATO accession might be conditioned on this. There is of course Odessa to the east, but if Russia controls Crimea and Sebastopol, there is nothing much NATO can do in Odessa.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 07 May 2023 16:31

What is the logic behind conducting a major offensive next to a nuclear power plant? Claim that Russia destroyed it as it eventually will suffer damage?

MeshaVishwas · Post by **MeshaVishwas** » 09 May 2023 12:50

Victory day parade in Moscow
Google auto translate captions doing a number on me.

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 10 May 2023 18:07

Long post alert!

I have been observing military flights over Most of europe for quite a while now (FR24). Basically looking at aircrafts that are boradcasting themselves. The last few days have been interesting.

I thought I would post my observations and the general pattern that has been showing up..

I started tracking all commonly known high value western assets after I noticed an AWACS flying overhead in a holding pattern(i live in south germany a town with very little to no visible military activity)

AWACS
- Multiple AWACS sorties seen per day (upto 4 sometimes), these are a mix of NATO /USAF assets.
- Multiple missions over eastern europe, targetting Belarus, Black sea, North sea and Ukraininan border. Also training sorties close to the Alps.

Ground Target surveillance:

- E8 JSTARS spotted many times targetting Belarus.

Elint/Signit:

- R135s from USAF and RAF up almost everyday since the strike on Moscow
- 2 interesting flight paths:
- One all along Finnish-Russian border (The day of the Moscow strike) when Zelensky was supposed to be in Finland.

- One deep into the Black Sea. Hard to imagine this path without heavy hitting escorts.

Refueller:

Heavy refueller presence noted over eastern europe. Sometimes 5 a/cs in the air at the same time. I believe USAF is moving assets here from elsewhere.

- Seen supporting the surveillance planes.

RAF fighters:

- RAF typhoons seem extremely active over the eastern coast.

Will keep updating my observations here

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 10 May 2023 19:02

sudhan wrote:Long post alert!

I have been observing military flights over Most of europe for quite a while now (FR24). Basically looking at aircrafts that are boradcasting themselves. The last few days have been interesting.

Nothing unusual Sudhan ji. NATO has been the Eyes, Ears, and other various sensors for UKR in this conflict and has thrown its entire weight of intel gathering tools into this conflict.

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 10 May 2023 19:34

Jay wrote:
sudhan wrote:Long post alert!

I have been observing military flights over Most of europe for quite a while now (FR24). Basically looking at aircrafts that are boradcasting themselves. The last few days have been interesting.

Nothing unusual Sudhan ji. NATO has been the Eyes, Ears, and other various sensors for UKR in this conflict and has thrown into entire weight of intel gathering tools into this conflict.

Of course, Saar. Everyone knows that the US and NATO forces provide all possible intel to the Ukraininans.. But the sheer number of assets in play in the recent days is new.

The Rivet Joint flying deep into the Black sea is also new to me (may be has happened before regularly). So far AFAIK, the western powers used unmanned assets for SIGINT over the black sea, due to risk of being intercepted by RuAF.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 11 May 2023 00:42

US Announces $1.2 Billion in Long-Term Military Aid for Ukraine
https://news.antiwar.com/2023/05/09/us- ... r-ukraine/

MeshaVishwas · Post by **MeshaVishwas** » 11 May 2023 17:44

CNN Exclusive: UK has supplied Ukraine with multiple Storm Shadow cruise missiles, giving Ukrainian forces a new long-range strike capability in advance of a highly anticipated counteroffensive, multiple senior Western officials tell me.

-CNN
Mind Games.
Londonistan may have handed over a handful of these gold plated weapons.

Avid · Post by **Avid** » 11 May 2023 18:46

MeshaVishwas wrote:
CNN Exclusive: UK has supplied Ukraine with multiple Storm Shadow cruise missiles, giving Ukrainian forces a new long-range strike capability in advance of a highly anticipated counteroffensive, multiple senior Western officials tell me.
-CNN
Mind Games.
Londonistan may have handed over a handful of these gold plated weapons.

Have they developed a ground-launched version of these?
Best I recall, these are air launched and/or ship/sub launch.

MeshaVishwas · Post by **MeshaVishwas** » 11 May 2023 18:55

Avid wrote:
MeshaVishwas wrote: -CNN
Mind Games.
Londonistan may have handed over a handful of these gold plated weapons.
Have they developed a ground-launched version of these?
Best I recall, these are air launched and/or ship/sub launch.

Unsure of the version given.
Some OSINT accounts claim that the versions handed over are A2G and launch platform is Su-24.
IIRC, there were reports(rumours?) of UKr fighter pilots training abroad.So this would make sense as the role is highly specialised.

Avid · Post by **Avid** » 11 May 2023 19:14

MeshaVishwas wrote: Unsure of the version given.
Some OSINT accounts claim that the versions handed over are A2G and launch platform is Su-24.
IIRC, there were reports(rumours?) of UKr fighter pilots training abroad.So this would make sense as the role is highly specialised.

Then the Rivet Joint flight deep into Black Sea could be viewed from a different perspective.

It might be used for ISR to guide the SU-24 along with providing the targeting information for targets in Crimea. That would make this a very ominous move.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 11 May 2023 20:21

https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/16 ... k6bP7UUGYQ

UK has given long range missiles to Ukraine which can strike deep within Russia.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 12 May 2023 00:45

The storm shadow is £2M a piece. I wonder how many are transferred , can’t be that many. But I think it’s more about making a point to the Russians than the weapon itself: it’s trying to see how far they can cross the red lines without getting a response. It’s win win for UK currently: given the low numbers it’s not that expensive for UK but in return it gets to show the neocons in US how good of a munna it is, and gets to show the world it’s a “player”.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 12 May 2023 12:30

Forbes claiming that the Ukrainians have disabled Russian air defence systems

https://www.forbes.com/sites/vikrammitt ... nsive/amp/

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 12 May 2023 14:24

IndraD wrote:https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/16 ... k6bP7UUGYQ

UK has given long range missiles to Ukraine which can strike deep within Russia.

Storm shadow has a max range of about 600 kms. The best bang for buck would be to try and aim for AD sites and C3 nodes in Crimea and just behind the front lines.. The rivet joint flights along black sea and near Belarus could be a build up of Intel to support these strikes. I have seen 2 Rivet joints 1 USAF and 1 RAF on the air, almost every day these days..
The US/NATO should have a pretty accurate ELINT picture of Russian forces by now.

Tanaji wrote:Forbes claiming that the Ukrainians have disabled Russian air defence systems

https://www.forbes.com/sites/vikrammitt ... nsive/amp/

The article talks about the high losses sustained so far by Russia, basically a validation of the US support and how its critical in supporting UKR.

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 12 May 2023 18:47

Just spotted 2 RAF Typhoons escorting a RAF Rivet Joint into the Black sea.

RAF is over Romania in force. Tankers, fighters, SIGNIT and the likes

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 13 May 2023 03:02

social media ramblings
missile which hit a warehouse in LPR fired from Ukraine was shadow storm of UK, it was a dry run (successful). Ru so far doesn't seem to have answer for this missile.

In another development Ru has taken bluff & bluster against UK to new level ..serious consequences and all with nothing visible on ground.
Claims & counter claims of gain & losses from both sides in Bakhmut. Azov seem to have begun a CO op there, Pirozin constantly whining his troops losing ground, army saying something else.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 13 May 2023 03:22

That mobile phone text message for UK public takes on a ominous note now... is the UK expecting a nuclear strike ?!

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 13 May 2023 04:23

Brits doing this on their own, or is Unkil telling them to?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 13 May 2023 19:39

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/05/1 ... u-35-each/ Russia suffers one of the worst casualty since beginning, several helis, fighter jets shot down

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 13 May 2023 19:55

Are these Russian planes being shot down by Western supplied AD or S-300s? If its the latter, where exactly are the replenished stocks being manufactured in Ukraine? Russia should seriously think about hitting supply lines to some how stem supply of Western weapons to front lines. Russian telegram channels are warning that next few days will be hell to Russian forces but it is to be expected along with retreats until they get Ukrainian forces in to desirable kill boxes...over Chanakyian thinking or justifiable excuse...not sure. Its interesting to see West upping the ante wrt arms...

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 13 May 2023 20:00

yes west is fully convinved Russia can be defeated, also Russia can't use nukes.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 13 May 2023 22:10

Zynda wrote:Are these Russian planes being shot down by Western supplied AD or S-300s? If its the latter, where exactly are the replenished stocks being manufactured in Ukraine? Russia should seriously think about hitting supply lines to some how stem supply of Western weapons to front lines. Russian telegram channels are warning that next few days will be hell to Russian forces but it is to be expected along with retreats until they get Ukrainian forces in to desirable kill boxes...over Chanakyian thinking or justifiable excuse...not sure. Its interesting to see West upping the ante wrt arms...

Russia has been unable to even end Bakhmut siege, forget about creating new kill boxes.

Their logistics are in a mess with large number of trucks blown up since the beginning of Invasion. There's only so much you can transport with train network sabotaged successfully by Ukraine.

The kind of resistances seen at Mariupol and Bakhmut will be very difficult to end in a reasonable time frame. From here on every town will follow the same model with defenders fortifying built up areas and Russians levelling block by block with artillery to avoid disproportionate casualties. There's only so many artillery shells Russia can launch in a day.

It's a war of attrition and Russia has been unable to open up new fronts allowing Ukraine to hold on to Highway choke points.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 13 May 2023 22:33

I think the momentum of battle is slightly turning in Ukraines favour. They have had time to get replenished to the gills with Western stocks now that most of their Soviet era stock is exhausted. Plus with time, western ISR has become more and more effective as one would expect given that Russians cannot take out these assets. Russia can’t keep up with what is being destroyed with its MIC given the sanctions.

I wonder what Russia’s long term game plan is. Any ceasefire is not worth the paper it’s printed on given past western and Ukrainian behaviour…so there will always be sabotage and restive borders. Sanctions won’t go away anytime soon either.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 13 May 2023 23:38

IndraD wrote:yes west is fully convinved Russia can be defeated, also Russia can't use nukes.

Why not?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 14 May 2023 02:18

https://twitter.com/LogKa11/status/1657 ... 37696?s=20

silvr lining on the cloud Russia has been able to hit massive ammo depo of Ukr with Kalibr cruise , another big hit an hr ago https://twitter.com/RadarFennec/status/ ... 76609?s=20

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 14 May 2023 22:49

SM rambling that depo hit by Russia contained depleted uranium shells https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1 ... 78785?s=20
RuAF repositions strategic bummers along Nordic border https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status ... 28038?s=20

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 15 May 2023 01:40

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 15 May 2023 15:05

UK sending long range attack drones

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines- ... 023-05-15/

It talks about hundreds of drones… does UK even have hundreds of them in its inventory?

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 15 May 2023 17:40

I spotted a Russian Tu-204 ISR aircraft entering the black sea region.. Meanwhile an RAF Rivet Joint heading towards the same location turned 90 degrees and headed for Kaliningrad which it is orbitting right now. Kaliningrad is coming under a lot of ELINT/SIGNIT surveillance by NATO. Guess the RuN baltic fleet is getting active..

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 16 May 2023 01:28

Russia released remains of what appeared to be a storm shadow missile, it was shot down by a Ru SAM not clear at the moment which one https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-fi ... 023-05-15/

Aldonkar · Post by **Aldonkar** » 16 May 2023 16:00

IndraD wrote:Russia released remains of what appeared to be a storm shadow missile, it was shot down by a Ru SAM not clear at the moment which one https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-fi ... 023-05-15/

One thing puzzels me. The UK has supplied Ukraine with air launched Storm shadow. What aircraft is Ukraine using to launch them? Ukraine has mainly Soviet and Russian aircraft. The western aircraft have not been deployed yet. So have the SU29s been modified to launch SS?
If they have, this does prove that necessity is the mother of invention. The Indian MOD, with their incessant trials take note.

mody · Post by **mody** » 16 May 2023 16:59

Aldonkar wrote:
IndraD wrote:Russia released remains of what appeared to be a storm shadow missile, it was shot down by a Ru SAM not clear at the moment which one https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-fi ... 023-05-15/
One thing puzzels me. The UK has supplied Ukraine with air launched Storm shadow. What aircraft is Ukraine using to launch them? Ukraine has mainly Soviet and Russian aircraft. The western aircraft have not been deployed yet. So have the SU29s been modified to launch SS?
If they have, this does prove that necessity is the mother of invention. The Indian MOD, with their incessant trials take note.

I think a surface launched version of the Storm Shadow has been supplied. Ukraine has very few Mig-29s still active. The latest ones were the ones supplied by Slovakia and Poland a couple of months ago. I doubt any of the Su-27s are still active with Ukraine. If they are, the numbers will not exceed 10-12.
All in all the total number of combat aircrafts that Ukraine can field would not be more than 30-35. Someone like @Deans would have better information.

However, the momentum surely seems to be shifting. We have been hearing for the past 3 months how Bakhmut is almost in the bag and that Ukraine's losses are horrendous. Yet, it is Ukraine that is still holding out and the Russians and Wagner are the ones showing fatigue. The town has almost been levelled to the ground and yet the Russians haven't been able to take full control or encircle the UAF forces. Multiple times it was reported that the UAF forces were in imminent danger of being encircled and that Ukraine had to rush elite troops to help out. However, it seems that the UAF elite troops are still coming in and they are able to take all those casualties and still keep sending in enough manpower and supplies. Its the Russians who are now complaining of taking too many losses and not having enough supplies. The morale and battle fatigue seems to be worse on the Russian side.

It seems if the situation for Russia becomes worse and if it is forced to retreat, it will probably try to make the deal with the devil (Xitler) and ask China for help. If the situation goes south from here for Russia, then only Chinese help will be able to help Russia get the initiative back in a conventional war.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 16 May 2023 17:13

^ telegram posts claims patriot battery is destroyed.
Not surprised.
I did not believe earlier claims of kinzhals being intercepted as the top speed of patriot is 2.8 mach . You can't intercept a missile faster than yourself.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 16 May 2023 17:22

The Ukrainian Su 24 are the launch platform for the storm shadow.

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 16 May 2023 18:06

mody wrote:
Aldonkar wrote: One thing puzzels me. The UK has supplied Ukraine with air launched Storm shadow. What aircraft is Ukraine using to launch them? Ukraine has mainly Soviet and Russian aircraft. The western aircraft have not been deployed yet. So have the SU29s been modified to launch SS?
If they have, this does prove that necessity is the mother of invention. The Indian MOD, with their incessant trials take note.
I think a surface launched version of the Storm Shadow has been supplied. Ukraine has very few Mig-29s still active. The latest ones were the ones supplied by Slovakia and Poland a couple of months ago. I doubt any of the Su-27s are still active with Ukraine. If they are, the numbers will not exceed 10-12.
All in all the total number of combat aircrafts that Ukraine can field would not be more than 30-35. Someone like @Deans would have better information.

AFAIK, there is no ground launched variant. There is a ship launched variant with the French Navy.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 16 May 2023 19:48

gakakkad wrote:^ telegram posts claims patriot battery is destroyed.
Not surprised.
I did not believe earlier claims of kinzhals being intercepted as the top speed of patriot is 2.8 mach . You can't intercept a missile faster than yourself.

gakakkad ji, it seems intercepting kinzals is not an impossible task. I'm not at all a know how but reading accounts of how this can be done on multiple forums has thrown new lights on this topic, to me at least. It seems Kinzals do not travel at hypersonic speeds at all the times and whenever there is a need for course adjustments towards the end of the flight they seem to be vulnerable. Another thing I learnt is you do not shoot down Kinzals by chasing it or not even head-on, but from the bottom. Apparently, during the hypersonic regime, the missile travels in a predicted flight path and radars are able to pick up and plot its trajectory accurately and then try shooting it down when its passing an area covered by anti-missile batteries. Our guru's here will have better answer to your query, for sure.

Aldonkar · Post by **Aldonkar** » 16 May 2023 20:31

sudhan wrote:
mody wrote:
I think a surface launched version of the Storm Shadow has been supplied. Ukraine has very few Mig-29s still active. The latest ones were the ones supplied by Slovakia and Poland a couple of months ago. I doubt any of the Su-27s are still active with Ukraine. If they are, the numbers will not exceed 10-12.
All in all the total number of combat aircrafts that Ukraine can field would not be more than 30-35. Someone like @Deans would have better information.
AFAIK, there is no ground launched variant. There is a ship launched variant with the French Navy.

Just to explain my previous post. I thought that SS would require substantial work to integrate it to the plane. However it seems that all the plane needs to do is lift it to the desired height. The target parameters and flight profile are programmed separately before flight.

The UK only has air launched SS. I do not believe that there is a ground launched variant, as it would be relatively short range. The French have a seal launched variant.