Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[NRao]

............. This is an act of war."

Who made that statement? The UK gov, some MP, The Independent, .....?

[Pratyush]

It's not a surprise that NS pipeline was blown up by someone. Who that someone is that is difficult to establish.

However, who benefits from the complete severing of the pipeline and the consequent loss of Russian leverage over Germany.

Should be easy to identify.

[Guddu]

............. This is an act of war."

Who made that statement? The UK gov, some MP, The Independent, .....?

Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Econonics first reported this on his private blog. Not clear, if that was a statement by Martin Armstrong commenting on the issue. Martin has some very high level contacts.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 13758.html
There is also a link and picture from Reuters at Marty Armstrong's website, but I cannot seem to find the link at Reuters site. In my experience, Martin is a credible person, but on closer reading the exact source of "its done" is not clear.

[bala]

Gonzalo Lira thinks the Americans are itching to fight the Russians. 101st airborne division is in Romania and they can use Tiraspol in Moldova Transnistria, which is a short hop (104 km) into Odesa. However the Russians have a garrison in Transnistria and the russians can augment it with airborne of their own. He also points out that the US is not in position to fight (apparently the real/best soldiers are gone, woke culture has taken hold, they are not up to the task). The US military doctrine has changed to use Nuclear First Strike option (as opposed to Retaliatory strike). Apparently the Ukraines have lost 300K men in war thus far. If not for the 'foreign help' Ukraine would have folded long time ago.



// { i know that the Brit army are cowards, they thrust the Indians in WW2 and chickened out in actual war by leaving things to General Patton to take on the Germans}

[ks_sachin]

// { i know that the Brit army are cowards, they thrust the Indians in WW2 and chickened out in actual war by leaving things to General Patton to take on the Germans}

That is a good strategy. That is why they ruled the world eh! Plus, read up on how General Patton was employed. To say that they left things for Gen Patton would be a stretch, IMHO. Not to mention that after the Normandy landings, it was not Gen Patton who got the glory assignment as far as i recollect.Guess who had a veto over how American troops would be used from the Normandy landings onwards?

Ergo calling Brit Armed forces cowards is perhaps a bit unwise. Plus if you were the leader of Great Britain during the WW2 what would you do?

I hope when the time comes our government and top brass ensure that our boys don't die needlessly unless absolutely absolutely required.

We have to give the Pakistanis and the Chinese the great pleasure of dying for their country. We will gladly donate coffins and flowers in vast quantities.

[Roop]

The US military doctrine has changed to use Nuclear First Strike option (as opposed to Retaliatory strike).

That's not a change, it has always been the US doctrine.

During the Cold War, it was a persistent "nightmare scenario" of some NATO members that the Soviet Union would initiate a sudden blitzkreig-style invasion of West Germany, roll rapidly westwards and reach the English Channel. Under this type of thinking, the SU could do this because they had vast superiority of numbers in conventional (i.e. non-nuclear) weapons platforms (tanks, APCs, helicopter gunships etc.). Therefore, NATO had no hope of stopping them without using (or at least credibly threatening to use) nuclear weapons. Hence their doctrine of nuclear first use.

[NRao]

The US military doctrine has changed to use Nuclear First Strike option (as opposed to Retaliatory strike).

That's not a change, it has always been the US doctrine.

During the Cold War, it was a persistent "nightmare scenario" of some NATO members that the Soviet Union would initiate a sudden blitzkreig-style invasion of West Germany, roll rapidly westwards and reach the English Channel. Under this type of thinking, the SU could do this because they had vast superiority of numbers in conventional (i.e. non-nuclear) weapons platforms (tanks, APCs, helicopter gunships etc.). Therefore, NATO had no hope of stopping them without using (or at least credibly threatening to use) nuclear weapons. Hence their doctrine of nuclear first use.

I **think* the recent change relates to non-nuclear nations. The US has decided to use nukes against non-nuclear nations - a first strike (whatever that means since the other fellow has no nukes).

[Pratyush]

The US had informed Iraq in the run up to the 91 war that any use of chemical weapons will result in nuclear retaliation against them.

[NRao]

US past performance cannot be used to predict the future.

Seriously, I have no idea why people are not taking a change in poles seriously.

So, my sense is that this modification in US nuclear doctrine (and, i have not read it with care) is aimed at nations in the ME. Already the US has stated that Saudis are in Russian camp. That alone makes SA eligible for a nuclear strike.

Folks, the US is NOT going to just roll over. She will fight to preserve her position no matter the cost. The US Already has a $31 trillion debt. The game plan is to retain her position and make everyone else pay that debt.

EU has started playing.

Simple.

[IndraD]

Photos of the destroyed Ukrainian Naval base and British communication centre in Ochakov, Nikolaev, Ukraine.

The Russian Defence Ministry has reported that strikes have been launched against the naval base in Ochakov. Earlier, the Russian Defence https://twitter.com/TobiAyodele/status/ ... yo7JQB0Vpg

[sohamn]

That's not a change, it has always been the US doctrine.

During the Cold War, it was a persistent "nightmare scenario" of some NATO members that the Soviet Union would initiate a sudden blitzkreig-style invasion of West Germany, roll rapidly westwards and reach the English Channel. Under this type of thinking, the SU could do this because they had vast superiority of numbers in conventional (i.e. non-nuclear) weapons platforms (tanks, APCs, helicopter gunships etc.). Therefore, NATO had no hope of stopping them without using (or at least credibly threatening to use) nuclear weapons. Hence their doctrine of nuclear first use.

I **think* the recent change relates to non-nuclear nations. The US has decided to use nukes against non-nuclear nations - a first strike (whatever that means since the other fellow has no nukes).

No, that is inaccurate. US always had a posture of striking with nuclear arsenal on anyone possessing weapons of mass destruction including chemical weapons. US never had any no first use policy against non nuclear states. Don't peddle false narratives.

[Cyrano]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doctrine_ ... s#Doctrine

The doctrine cites eight reasons under which field commanders can ask for permission to use thermonuclear weapons:
An enemy using or threatening to use WMD against the U.S., multinational, or alliance forces or civilian populations.
To prevent an imminent biological attack.
To attack enemy WMD launch facilities or its underground hardened CIC & storage bunkers containing deployable WMD, launch and delivery vehicles which could be used to target the U.S. or its allies.
To stop potentially overwhelming conventional enemy forces.
To rapidly end a war on terms favorable to the U.S.
To ensure that U.S. and international operations are successful.
To show the U.S. intent, capability and willingness to rapidly escalate from conventional weapons to Nuclear Defense Posture; using thermonuclear weapons to deter the enemy from using WMDs.
To react to enemy-supplied WMD and indirect use by proxy states against the U.S., allied nations and international coalition forces, or alliance and coalition civilian populations.

[kit]

OT but quite relevant.,
the US nuclear posture needs a revisit

https://www.heritage.org/military-stren ... ar-weapons

Operationally, all U.S. military operations rely on the backstop of U.S. nuclear deterrence.
It is therefore critical that the United States maintain a modern and flexible nuclear arsenal that can deter a diverse range of threats from a diverse set of potential adversaries.

Deterrence of nuclear and non-nuclear attack;
Assurance of allies and partners;
Achievement of U.S. objectives if deterrence fails; and
Capacity to hedge against an uncertain future

"According to the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review, Moscow “mistakenly assesses that the threat of nuclear escalation or actual first use of nuclear weapons would serve to ‘de-escalate’ a conflict on terms favorable to Russia.”
Russia has also been engaging in nuclear saber-rattling over its war on Ukraine, issuing both subtle and blatant nuclear threats in an attempt to coerce the West into staying out of the conflict."

It might be useful for BRF to compile a separate thread for nuclear posturing Russia vs US in the context of Ukraine. It is not ambiguous to the extent

Moscow has repeatedly mentioned redlines but yet showing restraint in the face of blatant western (Anglo Saxon) provocations both covert and overt.

The American embassy in Moscow is full time involved in "gauging" Moscows reactions to its provocations., showing it in as far as possible and testing !!

I think the best way for Russia to move forward is to shut down the American embassy inside its borders and "test Washington" .. this will happen sooner than later.

[RoyG]

What exactly will this do?

[NRao]

Iran is preparing to send additional weapons including ballistic missiles to Russia to use in Ukraine, western officials say

[Cyrano]

Russian hacker "Donbass Joker" claims to have hacked into combat information management platform "Delta" deployed by the US for C&C of Ukrainian operations. This would give Russia extensive details of Ukr troops and equipment mobilised, their numbers and unit locations.

[gakakkad]

Iran is preparing to send additional weapons including ballistic missiles to Russia to use in Ukraine, western officials say

The only utility of that perhaps would be to save costs . Otherwise sending BMs to Russia is like exporting crude oil to Saudi Arabia , fat people to America or terrorists to Pakistan .

[IndraD]

Ukrainian saboteurs destroy two Ka-52 helicopters at Russian air base https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... s-russian/



looks like 2 separate incidents? Russia lost prestigious ka allegator choppers, Ukr claims

[bala]

This Nuclear shit is being stretched by Nato and any misunderstanding can trigger nuclear armageddon. Nato is flooding soldiers (30K) into Euroland Poland, Romania, etc. Apparently Ukr madman Elensky said to someone in Euroland, "You should not be afraid of the possibility of nuclear war". The Deep state neocons/libs want a direct war. This is absolutely psychopathic nonsense.

Meanwhile the Russians have marshalled 300K soldiers and are having a precise diwali firecracker strike on the energy grid of Ukr, taking out distribution of electricity power in Ukr. Shoigu says that Ukr is trying to make a dirty bomb. Nato is bringing nuclear bombs into Euroland nations.

Ukr used the grain shipping lane to attack Sevestopol ships (black sea fleet) of Russia. The Brits are involved in the act.

Gonzalo Lira


Scott Ritter

[Guddu]

............. This is an act of war."

Who made that statement? The UK gov, some MP, The Independent, .....?

https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards/stat ... 60/photo/1

[kit]

This Nuclear shit is being stretched by Nato and any misunderstanding can trigger nuclear armageddon. Nato is flooding soldiers (30K) into Euroland Poland, Romania, etc. Apparently Ukr madman Elensky said to someone in Euroland, "You should not be afraid of the possibility of nuclear war". The Deep state neocons/libs want a direct war. This is absolutely psychopathic nonsense.

Ukr used the grain shipping lane to attack Sevestopol ships (black sea fleet) of Russia. The Brits are involved in the act.

Gonzalo Lira

seriously ? ., i think the neocons are running away with this war !! Zsky is likely living in Washington or some covert ops place in USA., do not think he is in Ukraine at all ., maybe some look alike or somebody is running the show ., weird. who in his right mind would say not to be scared of a nuclear war ?

[mody]

Some reports are saying Russia has started withdrawing from the west back of the dnipro river. Are these reports true? Ukraine is still being cautious, as they suspect, it could be a trap. If Russia does indeed retreat beyond the river and its not a trap, it would be a big blow.

[YashG]

Other than some mayhem in winters, Putin's army doesnt seem to have any werewithal to keep attacking. Based on what we see, this will be multiyear war reduced to skirmishes and to & fro bw Ukn & Russian army over marginal terriotory in east ukn.

Then at sometime, a west brokered peace accord will go for peace. Russian negotiating position will be quite weak and that will allow some tactical objectives for Ukn. A weakened Russia is already an achieved objective for west but at the cost of European economies. Their economies will not come out of this easily. It accelerated long term decline of European Economies. India is actually the biggest winner in this war!

[chetak]

@mtracey · Nov 1

The Pentagon officially confirmed today that US troops are on the ground in Ukraine, allegedly performing "inspections" of US weapon caches.

This information was released via anonymous media briefing.

No word on whether the troops are wearing "boots" as they walk "on the ground"

[madhu]

@mtracey · Nov 1

The Pentagon officially confirmed today that US troops are on the ground in Ukraine, allegedly performing "inspections" of US weapon caches.

This information was released via anonymous media briefing.

No word on whether the troops are wearing "boots" as they walk "on the ground"

Is it not direct war with russia? If by chance some missile or drone fall on them and few dies. Who will be responsible?
US keeps warning the Iran not to support Russia, but it gets in bed with Ukraine.

[bala]

Let us not put too much credibility in statements from Pentagon. Russia fully understands the actual ground situation - Nato is fully engaged in Ukr. Scott Ritter reports that there are soldiers who talk in various dialects of Amercian english - midwestern, drawl of the south, etc. roaming around Ukr. Azovstahl plant in Mariupol had many foreigners trapped.

The US neocons are pushing the envelope of redlines to crazy levels. This could trigger a nuclear exchange.

[Parasu]

Other than some mayhem in winters, Putin's army doesnt seem to have any werewithal to keep attacking. Based on what we see, this will be multiyear war reduced to skirmishes and to & fro bw Ukn & Russian army over marginal terriotory in east ukn.

Then at sometime, a west brokered peace accord will go for peace. Russian negotiating position will be quite weak and that will allow some tactical objectives for Ukn. A weakened Russia is already an achieved objective for west but at the cost of European economies. Their economies will not come out of this easily. It accelerated long term decline of European Economies. India is actually the biggest winner in this war!

How is India and not China the big winner of Europe's demise? Russian resources will now flow to China instead of Europe. India on the other hand will be forced to adhere to sanctions while China will do whatever it wants.
At least that is what is happening with the G7 Oil Price Cap proposal which will end seaborne shipment of Russian oil but allow pipeline oil to flow.

[dnivas]

some very scary Lancet drone strikes on SPG's
https://t.me/intelslava/40576
https://t.me/intelslava/40577?single

This one is especially frightening. The last few seconds with the cook off.
https://t.me/intelslava/40578?single

Radar terminal taken out
https://t.me/intelslava/40579

A cheap 20-40K drone able to take out an armored vehicle is quite frightening.

[IndraD]

'Assassination attempt' on judge who sentenced Britons to death
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... few-power/

A judge who sentenced two Britons to death has been the victim of an assassination attempt, it has been reported.

Alexander Nikulin suffered gunshot wounds and is in serious condition in hospital after he was attacked in the city of Vuhlehirsk in the Donetsk region, according to local media.

“In Vuhlehirsk, an attempt was made to assassinate the so-called judge of the "DNR Supreme Court," the local "Ministry of Internal Affairs" reports. [Mr Nikulin is in a] serious condition, [and] the collaborator is in hospital. He has gunshot wounds,” Nexta TV reported, without elaborating on what is meant by ‘collaborator’.

Ukraine's Flash News reports Mr Nikulin was the person with gunshot wounds.

Mr Nikulin was one of the judges on a panel that sentenced Britons Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner to death, along with a Moroccan man, Brahim Saadoune. Aslin and Pinner were captured fighting for Ukraine. They were released and returned to the UK in September.

[IndraD]

Netherlands at heart of US military plan to deliver latest tanks to Ukraine https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... e-against/

[IndraD]

318000 have joined conscription so far

[Deans]

318000 have joined conscription so far

Actual numbers are a state secret. What we can infer from what Putin said is:
- The 300,000 who were called up, have reported for duty. 49,000 in combat units in Ukraine as of last week.
- There are volunteers who (presumably) had experience and not part of the 300,000, 18,000 of them were accepted.

The average age of those called up is 35. Therefore this excludes recently graduated conscripts (125,000 each finished their 1 year service in Oct
and in Apr 22). They can now legally be called and made to serve in Ukraine and can integrate quicker into the units they served in for 6 months.
At least 150,000 of the 250,000 can go into the army in roles required in Ukraine.

Chechen volunteers are not included. There are reportedly 20,000+ who volunteered form Sept onwards.
There could effectively be as many as 300,000 (offically mobilised) + 150,000 conscripts + 100,000 Russian and Chechen volunteers.

[YashG]

^^^
Deans 550 K troops if mobilised + properly equipped + *used well* will wipe away Ukraine forces. Can they all be equipped as well ?

[Deans]

^^^
Deans 550 K troops if mobilised + properly equipped + *used well* will wipe away Ukraine forces. Can they all be equipped as well ?

Ukraine has mobilised some 700k men (add foreign mercenaries to that). Excluding casualties, they have 500k+ in the field.
The Russian army probably has 150-200k men in Ukraine, without the recent mobilisation. If they mobilise another 300-400k, half of them will be
in rear areas, so this would effectively double the strength of Russian combat units in Ukraine. Should be enough to avoid loss of more territory,
but not an outright win.

From what I see on Russian media, there is no shortage of tanks and artillery to equip double the force Russia now has.
Russian TV has shown clips of T-90s coming off the production line in large numbers and on trains, T-72s finishing upgrades and being sent to the front and some old refurbished T-64s.
All the artillery used so far is only 152mm SP guns. (with 122mm used by the LPR/DPR militia). Russia can easily increase this by 50%
If the front is static, Russia can also used field guns - there are about 1500 152mm guns available.

[YashG]

Their economies will not come out of this easily. It accelerated long term decline of European Economies. India is actually the biggest winner in this war!

How is India and not China the big winner of Europe's demise?

Actually the slowdown in European economies (+ slight slowdown in US) has meant that merchandise demand in Europe is down on which Chinese export economy depended. This hurts chinese debt fueled production capacities.

Before Russian war, many felt war is impossible in today's global order. Now they know it is not. This is precipitating greater opposition to Chinese growth. Uncle Sam has blocked US professionals working for Chinese Chip companies. This precipitation of action.

No amount of advantages (short term) outweigh what Chinese lost (long term) in this tizzy.

[IndraD]

Italian protesters demand end to arms supplies for Ukraine https://www.rt.com/news/566033-rome-pea ... e-weapons/

Crowds of people poured onto the streets of Rome on Saturday to call for peace in Ukraine. The demonstrators also demanded that the Italian government stop providing Kiev with weapons and engage with Russia diplomatically instead.

The rally saw tens of thousands of people turn out, including members of labor unions and Catholic associations, students and a variety of other activists.

They were carrying rainbow flags bearing the words “peace” and “non-violence.” Other slogans heard and seen during the demonstration included “Weapons down, wages up,” “Enough arms to Ukraine,” and “We don’t want war. No weapons, no sanctions. Where is diplomacy?”

Former Italian prime minister and Five Star party leader Giuseppe Conte, who attended the rally, called into question the recently sworn-in government’s approach to conflict resolution in the Eastern European country.

“Ukraine is now fully armed – we need a breakthrough towards a ceasefire and peace negotiations,” he said, adding that the current “strategy is leading only to escalation.”

interestingly ukrainians in Italy held a protest in favour of war and applauded Meloni

[YashG]

Italian protesters demand end to arms supplies for Ukraine https://www.rt.com/news/566033-rome-pea ... e-weapons/

https://www.ft.com/content/fd828050-9d9 ... cac0047fee

Tens of thousands of Italians marched through Rome on Saturday calling for a halt to arms shipments to Ukraine and a ceasefire, highlighting the resistance that Giorgia Meloni’s new government could face in providing further military support for Kyiv.

FT is a nicer reference for such a news. Cant be called pro-russia!

[Cyrano]

Putin's army doesnt seem to have any werewithal to keep attacking.

This statement reveals a total misunderstanding of Russian objectives. Its not territorial gain they are after. Its to ensure Ukraine ceases to be a threat. That's why demilitarisation and denazification.

Russia is drawing out the SMO to ensure all military force of Ukraine is destroyed. Its MIC is gone, equipment stocks are gone, a major part of regular troops are gone. AF and Navy are gone. But some military capability remains, made up of conscripts who are defending trenches and defensive lines, technical vehicles, several thousand mercenaries, coordinated by NATO experts, AFU C&C, some territorial defense forces, SBU, right wing militias etc.

They are holding defense lines and trying to counter attack. Russian forces don't need to go in search of the enemy. Ukr forces are coming fwd and offering themselves as targets for shelling or trying to penetrate Russian defences and getting destroyed.

Once the enemy forces are destroyed beyond a point, Russian forces will just just move forward and establish control over the territory.

The 300k plus troops being mobilised will free up the troops currently on the front lines to advance by taking their positions.

Meanwhile Ukr forces and critical infra continues to get diminished.

Russia can make more missiles, ammo, armour but it's weakness is troops. It can't afford to lose troops since it has a huge territory to defend from Kherson to Vladivostok. Sacrificing too many on the Ukrainian front will open up vulnerabilities elsewhere.

Winter is upon us, which will bring electricity starved Ukranians to their knees well before spring. It's NATO backers will soon start to back off.

Russia is doing absolutely the right thing by not attacking just to grab headlines, and minimising it's own casualties while continuously degrading enemy capabilities.

[Deans]

The Russian army, using a unit with newly mobilized men, attacked a village - Pavlovka, in order to take their objective - Ugledar, in the South East corner of the front. It was a costly failure (Russia rarely acknowledges that its attack failed and it took heavy casualties) though Ukraine also
appears to have taken high casualties and the Russians have taken some ground. Russian bloggers have criticized the amateurish tactics used. Just goes to show that attacks against prepared positions are very difficult, more so when the unit is new and the terrain does not favor quick movement by mechanized forces - the ground is swampy from rain.

[nandakumar]

An imminent Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson sector has been the talk of the town about 3 weeks ago. But there is no news of it now. What gives? Did I miss anything?