Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

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Deans
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

ks_sachin wrote:Deans,

Are there more of such unexpected and inexplicable decisions to come from the Russian high command?

And these is not a fog of war types of decisions.
Some more come to mind:

Their aircraft carrier is undergoing a prolonged refit (not ready, because of an accident during the refit), but its air wing, of highly capable
SU-27s is at St Petersburg, instead of being transferred to the Crimea. The battlecruiser Peter the Great is also unavailable, because it was given for refit to a shipyard owned by Putin's crony, which has never worked on a large vessel (only submarines).

No attempt to conscript men in the Crimea, who since 2015 have faced a threat of invasion (unlike Ukraine which has ruthlessly conscripted everyone) Crimea has just deployed its first brigade, where they could have deployed 5-6, months ago.
Not much attempt to standardize training of conscripts/volunteers in the Donbass. The best fighters who have been around since 2014 are now fed
up of war and expect Russian infantry to take over. Questions are being asked over why the Donbass militia were asked to man the line East of Kharkov, (without heavy weapon support) where the Ukrainian attack took place, when Kharkov is not part of the Donbass and the militia had no interest in defending it. Russia is behaving like the Germans did with their Romanian allies, before the debacle at Stalingrad.

Its only now that orders have been issued to set up 2 armored vehicle repair facilities, because field repair units and the tank factory itself can't handle the load. Ukraine on the other hand, had this set up as soon as the war began.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Cyrano wrote:Deans ji,
Is it because Russian leadership has ordered minimising personnel losses as important and is being followed faithfully at every level?
Losing a position or time to accomplish a given mission is mandated to be secondary to troop preservation I think.
Russia is very much unwilling to fight till the last soldier at this stage on occupied territory.
My gut feel is they fully expect NATO to drag this longer and at some stage get involved with their troops and attack Russian territory, so they want to manage their resources carefully.
(
Cyrano ji, I think in all professional armies, soldiers lives are not risked needlessly. However in IA ( I haven't served, but going by what veterans say) men will risk their lives on their own, to fulfill their mission and for the larger glory of the unit, where others are doing the same. I don't see the Russian infantry being able to win a Kargil war. Russians comment on social media that in WW2, their army had a different level of fighting spirit and willingness to die for their country.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by kit »

Deans wrote:
Cyrano wrote:Deans ji,
Is it because Russian leadership has ordered minimising personnel losses as important and is being followed faithfully at every level?
Russians comment on social media that in WW2, their army had a different level of fighting spirit and willingness to die for their country.
same goes for the Chinese army., only worse.

OT ., but it does look like the chinks would replace their human soldiers with drones and robots , the soldiers sent to their western frontier are "equipped" with exploding bracelets to "motivate them"
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

chanakyaa wrote: Then there are sanctions. Odessa and/or oil/gas this winter could be bargaining chip to get concessions? Reports of Ukies regaining some territory looks like Ukies and its supporters need some small wins/victories and headlines to convince its struggling population to cough up more aid, money ityadi. Bit cynical on those headlines, but I could be wrong with my assessment.
Russia also cannot afford sanctions. It is running out of money to finance the war (especially after its assets got frozen). If they print more money it will lead to inflation. Russia's best strategy was to force Europe to negotiate by the start of winter, but for that it would have to show a significant victory (ideally liberation of all the Donbass and acknowledged high Ukrainian losses). That timetable for victory has been affected by the loss of territory in Izyum and Russians switching over to the defensive in other sectors. If EU gets through winter, the worst is over for them, just as sanctions start biting in Russia. Russia cannot freeze the conflict (as was done in Georgia or Donbass after 2015) as Ukraine will get arms from NATO at a much higher rate than Russia can rearm.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Lot of recriminations on Social media in Russia. The recurring comments:

- Putin and his high command went to the other end of the country to watch the Vostok military exercises, with 50,000 men who should have been in Ukraine.
- From Russians in the liberated areas - `You guys in Moscow and St Petersburg are sipping lattes while we get shelled daily'.
- Lot of anger over fireworks to mark Moscow city day, on the day of serious reverses in Izyum. Public protects forced city day in Krasnodar to be cancelled.
- `We will volunteer to fight, but be honest about the state of the war'.
- Calls that Putin should be as ruthless as Stalin, wage a real war against Ukraine, sack his generals etc.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

I can understand the reactions from Donbass - they are just a few steps away from feeling they are also being used by Russia as a bargaining chip/expendables like the west is using Ukraine.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Pratyush »

One setback and all hell has broken loose. It's like people believe that Russia is no longer able to get it's act together and win an existential conflict.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

When Putin choose do his attack rather than using Asymmetric actions, he made a call when his military was clearly not ready to do what he wanted. He chose a war at his opponents timing? So definitely when Ukrainian solders are able to walk to the Russian border. At this point it looks like Russia has lost the war. Ukraine will not try and kick out of the Russians from the whole country with little repecussions.

The Russians do not seem to have any way to win the war unless the are waiting for winter and hoping most western equipment like German WW2 equipment is warm whether equipment incl, AWACS and other assets.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Tanaji »

Bit much to say Russia has lost the war over the loss of 3K sq km of occupied territory? One would think UKA is on the doors of Moscow…
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Pratyush wrote:One setback and all hell has broken loose. It's like people believe that Russia is no longer able to get it's act together and win an existential conflict.
Social media war.

There us no big picture. Waste too much energy to look at all aspects.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by ks_sachin »

Cyrano wrote:
ks_sachin wrote:
SNAFU perhaps in the strictest sense of the acronym and slang.
That's too easy Sachin Bhai, in saying so, you are calling not just Russians but also us forumites discussing this topic idiots. That's a disappointing comment from you.
From a military perspective - and this is a Combat Tactics & Strategy page - the Russian military leadership has proven to be less than stellar. I was alluding to what the average Russian soldier was thinking as SNAFU was a term that is credited to the GIs in WW2. If this was WW2 the Gulags would have seen a new influx of senior Russian functionaries.

Who am I to consider forumites idiots Cyrano. I don't know enough of them personally and don't know enough of their moral foundations.

Don't get me wrong - I want Russia to win but I am pessimistic unless Putin and team stop drinking the koolaid they seem to have been drinking and give the Russian soldier the leadership that they deserve.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

One question though in such a lighting quick advance, how come not many Russian POW or equipment, every captured piece of Russian equipment is displayed before Western media. Even a damaged Sap18 pod. Clearly the Russians had already left the area? Something doesn't add up
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Aditya_V wrote:One question though in such a lighting quick advance, how come not many Russian POW or equipment, every captured piece of Russian equipment is displayed before Western media. Even a damaged Sap18 pod. Clearly the Russians had already left the area? Something doesn't add up
The Russians left the area, hence very few POW (though Ukraine announced in advance that there were a lot). Not many bodies either.
The Ukrainian web site listing all the POWs is not available.

Ukrainian casualties were high - from air strikes and artillery, I don't believe Russian estimates, but there is supporting evidence in the form of ambulances going to all hospitals in Kharkov (which are all full). Seriously wounded are treated in Europe.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Tanaji wrote:Bit much to say Russia has lost the war over the loss of 3K sq km of occupied territory? One would think UKA is on the doors of Moscow…
Its not that, but a combination of several things.

- Russian supporters in the Kiev area were abandoned in March. Russia did not want it to happen again, but it did. There are already executions of
Russian civilian supporters in Izyum (Donbass people put up pics on Russian social media).
- Belgorod district in Russia is shelled with impunity. The people being shelled aren't excited about the fact that Ukraine is also shelled.
- Donetsk city is shelled daily. If, after 6 months, the Russians can't silence a few artillery guns, something is seriously wrong.
- Russians take ages to capture a town. Lot of comparisons with WW2 - e.g. my grandfather's unit took 3 days to capture this town defended by an
SS regiment and these jokers can't do it in 3 months.

The Red army took approx. 4 months ( Aug-Dec 1943) to liberate half of Ukraine, while advancing mostly on foot.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

ks_sachin wrote: From a military perspective - and this is a Combat Tactics & Strategy page - the Russian military leadership has proven to be less than stellar. I was alluding to what the average Russian soldier was thinking as SNAFU was a term that is credited to the GIs in WW2. If this was WW2 the Gulags would have seen a new influx of senior Russian functionaries.
Sachin ji, It starts from the bottom. The average soldier is as likely to kill his sergeant (who has bullied him during training) as the enemy.
Officers do not know the names of their men. COs do not know their officers. Men know the CO is corrupt.
There is no JCO equivalent.
The men of the unit might see each other for the first time, just before deployment. They have no clue if their equipment works.
Very few units have any history (apart from WW2 guards units). Paltan ki izzat concept is not there.

All this does not matter when the country faces an existentialist crisis (or, if men face torture and death in captivity - as it happened in WW2 and Afghanistan). Then everyone magically comes together and displays great heroism. This is not one of those times. That said, the average Russian is very patriotic and will not betray his country.

Ukraine had the same problem, presumably NATO training has corrected some of it.
Last edited by Deans on 14 Sep 2022 19:41, edited 1 time in total.
Cyrano
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

I have observed the same as well.

With the info we have it's not easy to find answers as to why Russian forces seem to bog down at certain places at certain times

The destruction of Kherson offensive was excellent, and in the very next days démobilisation and loss of Kharjiv Izyum sector is strange, uneven conduct of the war. They were bogged down near Bakhmut for weeks before that.

The positive is very few losses of troops or PoWs captured by Ukr.

Now Chechen forces of Kadyrov are back in the front and are regaining advance in Bakhmut. No idea what their 3rd army is doing...

After 6 months most of the field lessons should have been learnt and troops well coordinated.

Let's approach this from the other end. What is Ukraine doing well by intent or accident that is causing uneven responses from Ru forces?

Apart from large no of western fighters reported in Kharkiv Izyum sector, there aren't many clues.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Rony »

dnivas wrote:
KrishnaK wrote: I"m not sure I've explained this properly - 2014 was about the limits of aggression the EU was going to put up with. A full fledged invasion of Ukraine was going to set the cat amongst the pigeons. Russia doesn't have the capacity to stand another cold war. Putin gambled that the EU would meekly accept the invasion and subjugation of Ukraine when presented with a fait accompli.

It can find a way to exist in peace with the rest of Europe OR it can go down the path it's on now. It's not going to be able to start invasions near EU borders and maintain its economic state relative to Europe.

Russia has thousands of nukes and a territory that's pretty much invulnerable. There's 0 chances that it'll get invaded NATO on its borders or not.

I dont think you understand the amount of western penetration of the Russian 'civil' society since the late 90's. My wife who is from one of the ends of the world type towns is completely anti putin after hanging out with the hipsters and NGO types of St petersburg for a few months. If that extent of brain washing can be done to a small town patriotic girl, then that concept of territorial invulnerability can be nullified. One generation of NATO and EU funding have made Ukr's rabid Russia haters, same can happen to Russians and then cause chechnya 3.0 all across Russia.

So Putin did not have any choice but to take on the beast now. There is no time. Already the NGO and Civil society type bave been completely compromised by VOA/peace corp/ and other cutouts for the agencies. This is happening in India as well.
+100

I know two similar cases like this. One ethnic Russian originally from rural Russia. Got influenced by activist types and now very anti-Putin (which also manifests as anti-Russian, Pro-Ukraine in current conflict). Second, ethnic Russian originally from Eastern Ukraine. But Babushka/Dedushka still in Eastern Ukraine and caught in the conflict. Dedushka former Red Army. retired. Very Pro-Russian and Pro-Putin. But this guy very anti-Putin and Pro-Ukraine. Considers himself a Ukranian not Russian at all.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by bala »

Alex Mercouris summarizes where the current state of the tussle is between Russia and Ukr. According to him, The Izyum withdrawal is a side show. Bakhmut and Adviika are going to be encircled by the Russians. BTW the Russian force is mainly Wagner group (Gruppa Vagnera, private company with ex Russian Spec force), local militias, Chechens and of course Russian army. He has some estimates of force levels on both sides. He thinks that Russia can sustain this war for a long time.

Russia inflation is down, output is rising, oil & gas output is the highest, economy is humming along. Euroland is facing the opposite. Scholz and Macro[a]n ran to Putin for some urgent discussions.

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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Rakesh »

UN secretary-general: "We are far away from the end of the war" after call with Putin
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ru ... e333a2a221
14 Sept 2022
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Y. Kanan »

bala wrote:Alex Mercouris summarizes where the current state

This guy's track record has been very poor, if you watch his earlier vids. His commentaries are definitely not "neutral"; he's definitely pro-Russian.

Not that I have a problem with that, but this kind of "analysis" is NOT a viable alternative to the mainstream propaganda. Truly objective war reporting has been virtually impossible to find.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

FWIW from a military commander:

He doesn't go much into the outcome of Izyum attack though...
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by bala »

Y. Kanan wrote:the mainstream propaganda. Truly objective war reporting has been virtually impossible to find.
Mainstream: is useless junk. One news outlet writes an article and they copy and paste to others to amplify their junk viewpoint. So far, Russia has gained territory in Ukr and the only valid viewpoint is from the Russian perspective. The Ukr have been at the loosing end of the picture and any attempt to regain territory is at a huge cost (which is never revealed by them). Russia has been loosing men/material/weapons too.

Truly Objective: this is near impossible to get in a war. The tallying will be done much later from both perspectives and we can piece together what happened on the battlefield but at the end of the day the victor writes the history.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by dnivas »

99% of media articles from the ukr front lines are done from Kiev. That's the extent of propaganda that has been manifested. you rarely see In depth coverage from Ukr front lines. That's why most media articles are pretty much copy paste and they all published at the same time.
The mass media / Internet has truly been subverted and a dangerous place now to be for folks looking for neutral viewpoints.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by ks_sachin »

It is the information warfare dimension of warfare. The Russians are past masters of it as well. What did you expect?

I am sure both the UKR and the Russian sides would not allow any unvetted media to roam around the front lines.

Plus you have to understand the mechanics of getting to the front lines. By its very nature most journalists will not get access to it unless either of the sides decides to use that a force multiplier. If you don't get the required clearance to venture where you are not supposed to be you could go out in a body bag at worst and at best burn your bridges with your contacts so badly that you might as well not bother.

Then there is the other thing which is very important - any journalistic freedom is fine as long as it aligns with the editorial policy of the management of the media outlet. Buck that and see what happened very quickly and I don't need a war in Ukraine to learn that. All this idealism etc is fine in journalism school - the real world is different and most people don't have the backbone to fight back against the system.

Media consumers on the other hand have the confirmation bias that leads them to consume the media that aligns to their world view which means that media outlets push more of that. So this is the ROI now riding the journalistic independence horse. Guess what the ROI is a bloody good rider so anything that maximises subscription and ad-revenue is paramount - obviously in alignment with the editorial policy which is dictated by the management.

So there..
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by ks_sachin »

bala wrote: Mainstream: is useless junk.
Unfortunately a large part of the world consumes mainstream media like koolaid. That does not mean niche media outlets are pure as the driven snow. - Everybody lies and tries to shape the narrative their way.
≈ So far, Russia has gained territory in Ukr and the only valid viewpoint is from the Russian perspective. The Ukr have been at the loosing end of the picture and any attempt to regain territory is at a huge cost (which is never revealed by them).
Why is the Russian viewpoint only the valid one. Pro UKR will say that their's is the only valid view point. Its a valid view point in so far as it confirms your viewpoint with regards to this conflict. And why should the UKR reveal the reality? They have used the media admirably to bolster their case and win the hearts and minds of the world. You may not like it but they are not here to please u but to try and win an unequal fight.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

There are 3 types of people who have access to reporting on the fighting.
- Pro Ukraine (incl. all Western journo's). Can't publish unless vetted by Ukraine MoD.
- Russian. Have to be cleared by Russian MoD. Its good when they interview soldiers who give unscripted answers, or show real combat footage.
- People in the Donbass or Belarus, who have Russian sympathies but do not need clearance from Russia. They sometimes contradict the Russian
position.

On Youtube, the Military Summary channel (Daily, in English) is quite credible. He is a Belarus reporter with good access to info and local reports.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

ks_sachin wrote: ........

Why is the Russian viewpoint only the valid one. Pro UKR will say that their's is the only valid view point. Its a valid view point in so far as it confirms your viewpoint with regards to this conflict ......
Because in 1990 there was a deal made. The following from the US
Declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major, and Woerner

Slavic Studies Panel Addresses “Who Promised What to Whom on NATO Expansion?”
and
Washington D.C., December 12, 2017 – U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 9, 1990, was part of a cascade of assurances about Soviet security given by Western leaders to Gorbachev and other Soviet officials throughout the process of German unification in 1990 and on into 1991, according to declassified U.S., Soviet, German, British and French documents posted today by the National Security Archive at George Washington University (http://nsarchive.gwu.edu).
"Eastward" meant, not even then East Germany!!!! Forget Poland, the Baltic nations, and now Finland and Sweden.

All this is documented in the US National Achieves, and published by the George Washington University, who maintains a web sire just for national security issues/topics.

I bet 99% of teh people are not even aware of this and keep arguing about nothing.

The idiot that broke that "promise" was none other than the great Bill Clinton. And, for what? So, LM could sell arms to Ex-Warsaw Pact nations.

Then came Bush Jr, who broke his father's promises, under the claim "times change".

Followed closely by all sorts of Neo actors.

This has nothing to do with Ukraine. Nobody cares about Ukraine. Ukraine cannot have a view, because it never existed (in the light of what transpired in 1990).
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Tanaji »

Meanwhile the gravy train rolls on:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-15/ ... /101442472

Pakis of Europe doing best what they do… and defence companies happy to oblige and the tax payer paying for all.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Tanaji wrote:Meanwhile the gravy train rolls on:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-15/ ... /101442472

Pakis of Europe doing best what they do… and defence companies happy to oblige and the tax payer paying for all.
Actually I can here to post the following and got distracted with KS's comment/question.

Javelin Replacement Contract Awarded
The Army awarded a production contract for $311 million on Sep. 13 to the Javelin Joint Venture (JJV) between Raytheon Missiles and Defense and Lockheed Martin for delivery of more than 1,800 Javelins that will serve as replenishment for those rounds from DoD stocks sent to Ukraine in support of their military and security forces.
.......
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by bala »

ks_sachin wrote:Why is the Russian viewpoint only the valid one.
Not to belabour the point but the victor writes the history. Brutish wrote their own fairy tale about India/Bharat after looting 300T pounds (the UK Queendom owns 23,000 pieces of jewellery of which 19,000+ are from India).
NRao ji has provided other reasons for consideration.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Tanaji »

The other aspect is that most of the main stream media and social media is controlled by the West, especially the latter. It is ironic that the latter continue to make editorial judgement of the content and yet claim safe harbour and are not liable for the same. So only a single narrative arises…
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Yes, SM companies think they are being smart by staying in that grey zone. But Govt's are smarter. They have learnt to keep them in this Trishanku swargam and legislate all around which gives them control on what content the SM co.s moderate and how. As long as valuations remain high and they are making money SM co.s will drink from any toilet bowl a nasty govt asks them to.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by ks_sachin »

NRao

Dosen’t matter the UKR and their supporters believe what they want to. Nothing will change that. Now if you believed that or had UKR sympathies then you would consume any pro UKR material. The circle perpetuates when as a media owner I will feed that.

Facts dont matter it is the Russian point of view that you have put forth. I have listened to a speech by mSome US state dept functionary and their take on that foc was quite interesting. So we all end believing what we want to. Rationalisation is a way of justifying our internal mental wiring.

In Aus there is a big camp of anti vaxxers and I feel that during Covid there are now more anti-vax blogs meeting their info needs!!!
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by KrishnaK »

NRao wrote:All this is documented in the US National Achieves, and published by the George Washington University, who maintains a web sire just for national security issues/topics.

I bet 99% of teh people are not even aware of this and keep arguing about nothing.
I"ll not comment on what people are aware of or not. There are other takes that contradict this historical grievance peddling.
Because in 1990 there was a deal made. The following from the US
Declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major, and Woerner

Slavic Studies Panel Addresses “Who Promised What to Whom on NATO Expansion?”
and
Washington D.C., December 12, 2017 – U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 9, 1990, was part of a cascade of assurances about Soviet security given by Western leaders to Gorbachev and other Soviet officials throughout the process of German unification in 1990 and on into 1991, according to declassified U.S., Soviet, German, British and French documents posted today by the National Security Archive at George Washington University (http://nsarchive.gwu.edu).
"Eastward" meant, not even then East Germany!!!! Forget Poland, the Baltic nations, and now Finland and Sweden.


From Exposing the myth of Western betrayal of Russia over NATO’s eastern enlargement
In Putin’s narrative, Moscow only conceded on these issues because NATO had assured the Kremlin that it would not expand ‘one inch eastward’. US Secretary of State James Baker uttered these much-quoted words on 9 February 1990. (They were not, as is sometimes claimed, made by US President George H.W. Bush, who had ultimately responsibility for American policy.) Baker’s main aim was to allay Soviet fears of a larger, unified Germany by offering assurances that neither NATO command structures nor NATO troops would be transferred to the ‘territory of the former GDR’. Yet Baker’s ‘not one inch eastward’ formula would have made it impossible to apply NATO security guarantees (especially Article 5) to the whole of Germany. Bush therefore suggested to Chancellor Helmut Kohl that he should, in the future, speak of a ‘special military status’ for the GDR. A meeting in Camp David on 24/25 February 1990 confirmed this wording. Special provisions and obligations as regards the GDR territory were subsequently included in the text of the Two Plus Four Treaty (under Articles 4 and 5), which formally re-established German unity. This treaty placed significant restrictions on the deployment of foreign NATO troops and nuclear weapons on East German soil. In return for his willingness to compromise on these points, Kohl granted Gorbachev, in bilateral talks, a financial package totalling around DM 100 billion, in the form of loans and economic aid, which financed the withdrawal of the Red Army soldiers.

To be clear, then, the talks in February 1990 were never about NATO expansion into Eastern Europe. They were confined to the specific issue of NATO’s defence in the wake of German unification – and the two issues should not be conflated. It is also important to remember that the Warsaw Pact was still in existence during these talks, so NATO enlargement was a moot point.
From NATO-Russia relations: the facts
Claim: NATO promised Russia it would not expand after the Cold War
Fact: Such an agreement was never made. NATO’s door has been open to new members since it was founded in 1949 – and that has never changed. This “Open Door Policy” is enshrined in Article 10 of NATO’s founding treaty, which says “any other European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic” can apply for membership. Decisions on membership are taken by consensus among all Allies. No treaty signed by the United States, Europe and Russia included provisions on NATO membership.

The idea of NATO expansion beyond a united Germany was not on the agenda in 1989, particularly as the Warsaw Pact still existed. This was confirmed by Mikhail Gorbachev in an interview in 2014: "The topic of 'NATO expansion' was not discussed at all, and it wasn't brought up in those years. I say this with full responsibility. Not a single Eastern European country raised the issue, not even after the Warsaw Pact ceased to exist in 1991. Western leaders didn't bring it up, either."

Declassified White House transcripts also reveal that, in 1997, Bill Clinton consistently refused Boris Yeltsin's offer of a 'gentlemen's agreement' that no former Soviet Republics would enter NATO: "I can't make commitments on behalf of NATO, and I'm not going to be in the position myself of vetoing NATO expansion with respect to any country, much less letting you or anyone else do so…NATO operates by consensus."
This has nothing to do with Ukraine. Nobody cares about Ukraine. Ukraine cannot have a view, because it never existed (in the light of what transpired in 1990).
Ukraine became an independent country when the Soviet Union collapsed. Something that the NATO or the ever conspiring US had nothing to do with (besides prosecuting the cold war that is).
With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine became an independent state, formalised with a referendum in December 1991. On 21 January 1990, over 300,000 Ukrainians[46] organized a human chain for Ukrainian independence between Kyiv and Lviv. Ukraine officially declared itself an independent country on 24 August 1991, when the communist Supreme Soviet (parliament) of Ukraine proclaimed that Ukraine would no longer follow the laws of USSR and only the laws of the Ukrainian SSR, de facto declaring Ukraine's independence from the Soviet Union. On 1 December, voters approved a referendum formalizing independence from the Soviet Union. Over 90% of Ukrainian citizens voted for independence, with majorities in every region, including 56% in Crimea.
NATO enlargement comes out of security needs for Eastern European nations and their fear of Russia from their experience. Ultimately the only way Russia to have managed the situation long term was turn into a market driven economy like Germany and build enough trust with those countries that it need not have attempted a military solution. Citizens of countries from Poland to the Czech republic and Ukraine want to be a part of the EU for all the same reasons many on this forum live in the west - to prosper. Their citizens demand to have a view and are willing to fight for it.
Pratyush
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Pratyush »

Peaceful coexistence is a two way street.

You can't coexist peacefully with an alliance that contains nation's wanting to redress historical wrongs against you.

This is a bottom line that seems to have been missed by most Russian critics.
ks_sachin
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by ks_sachin »

Peaceful co-existence is impossible..
NRao
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

ks_sachin wrote:Peaceful co-existence is impossible..
Seriously, ..... especially for Europeans (that includes those that went on to occupy other lands).
Past few centuries have been very turbulent mainly because of EU
NRao
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

KrishnaK wrote:.............

NATO enlargement comes out of security needs for Eastern European nations and their fear of Russia from their experience. Ultimately the only way Russia to have managed the situation long term was turn into a market driven economy like Germany and build enough trust with those countries that it need not have attempted a military solution. Citizens of countries from Poland to the Czech republic and Ukraine want to be a part of the EU for all the same reasons many on this forum live in the west - to prosper. Their citizens demand to have a view and are willing to fight for it.
A lot to unpack.

However, when the Soviet Union broke up there were discussions on what is the way forward - no one can deny that. What exactly was said is up for debate - granted.

The best argument I have heard was the US President does not have the authority to speak for NATO. Actually, none of the leaders at the table represented NATO. So, .....

For those who are serious they need to talk about the TWO Minsk accord - written.

However, I am not going to complain if Europe slides into the Atlantic.
ks_sachin
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by ks_sachin »

NRao wrote:
ks_sachin wrote:Peaceful co-existence is impossible..
Seriously, ..... especially for Europeans (that includes those that went on to occupy other lands).
Past few centuries have been very turbulent mainly because of EU
I agree but I meant as a psychological state for human growth. If there is no strife and difficulty and constant battle human kind will atrophy and die.
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