Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

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NRao
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status ... 7400415232
Looks like a broad offensive punching out of Donetsk right now. Supported by massive shelling. They are attacking strongpoints in what is likely the most heavily fortified area on earth.

Image
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

NRao wrote:https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status ... 7400415232
Looks like a broad offensive punching out of Donetsk right now. Supported by massive shelling. They are attacking strongpoints in what is likely the most heavily fortified area on earth.
It is the most heavily fortified part of the Donbass front. In the northern Donbass, a river bank has been the natural boundary. Here it is a series of
built up areas, in between which are artificial hills, or pits (from mining), because the area a major coal mining region.
No expert I've come across expected a Russian offensive here - All the focus was on a possible Russian offensive towards Seversk, Bakmuth, Slavyansk (from the north) or Kharkov.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

^ Conflict has more or less played out how I expected with defenses holding up in east and almost stalemate on both sides now after initial Russian gains.

Inspite of all reports Ukrainian southern offensive IMO won’t start till fall similar to northern offensive in March trying to take advantage of weather. Till the offensive begins they will sit back and take out Russian depots and supply lines.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by UBanerjee »

John
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Looks like Ukrainian Neptune (others say Ukrainian drone strike) hit a Russian navy Project 22610 boat very unusual to put a patrol ship with mounted Tor SAM system in front line.



https://twitter.com/covertshores/status ... Vs03-_YJ9Q
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

John, thank you for bringing some humour into this thread.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Cyrano wrote:John, thank you for bringing some humour into this thread.
No need for pointless one line comment if you are don’t contributing anything. That second video was from Russian sources so I don’t know how it is humor. There is lot of ?? over it, Russian source say it was naval exercise and likely one of decoys exploded. There is image of vessel returning with hanger area covered in smoke.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

I was referring to your "stalemate" remark. One incident here or there is cherry picking in favour of the side you or I may be rooting for and 99.99% of them are not tipping points so largely irrelevant wrt to the overall picture. But somehow you seem to find them satisfying and comforting enough to conclude this war is in a stalemate and write about your own prescience
^ Conflict has more or less played out how I expected with defenses holding up in east and almost stalemate on both sides now after initial Russian gains.

Inspite of all reports Ukrainian southern offensive IMO won’t start till fall similar to northern offensive in March trying to take advantage of weather. Till the offensive begins they will sit back and take out Russian depots and supply lines.


The limitless rationalisation and delusion in that post is what seemed funny to me.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Cyrano wrote:I was referring to your "stalemate" remark. One incident here or there is cherry picking in favour of the side you or I may be rooting for and 99.99% of them are not tipping points so largely irrelevant wrt to the overall picture. But somehow you seem to find them satisfying and comforting enough to conclude this war is in a stalemate and write about your own prescience
^ Conflict has more or less played out how I expected with defenses holding up in east and almost stalemate on both sides now after initial Russian gains.

Inspite of all reports Ukrainian southern offensive IMO won’t start till fall similar to northern offensive in March trying to take advantage of weather. Till the offensive begins they will sit back and take out Russian depots and supply lines.


The limitless rationalisation and delusion in that post is what seemed funny to me.
Ok please quote the comment while replying

So how is it not a stalemate at this point? Russia captured 165 sq km of land in July, Ukraine hasn’t much of gains in South as well. So for all intensive purpose it is a stalemate.

https://twitter.com/war_mapper/status/1 ... aZ8Su4JnjA
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Is that your only metric to conclude it's a stalemate? i.e. "any position or situation in which no action can be taken or progress made" - could be from Ukrainien forces perspective but Russian forces have plenty of options and choices.

Secondly, contrary to most individual battlefield incidents due to this missile or that equipment which do not end up being tipping points, territory lost or gained can often tilt the balance significantly because territory has features and positional significance beyond just being a patch of land of some given area.

Assuming your quoted source is accurate and RA gained "just" 165 sq km territory in July if in the process they inflicted 10s of thousands of troop casualties and destroyed lots of irreplaceable game changing equipment not to speak of morale - then are the Russian gains still = no progess and no further action can be taken by them?

Why will a Ukranian counter offensive enjoy weather advantage that the Russians won't?

Are the Russians really letting Ukr troops sit back and coolly destroy RA munitions depots? Because they can't do anything about it? :roll:
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by sohamn »

^^^

Cyrano ji, there are different aspects one need to weigh in the current situation.

A) Russia’s initial intent was to create a buffer between NATO and themselves by either scaring Ukraine into submission or deposing the current rulers. This has spectacularly failed- not only NATO expanded but Russia failed to depose zelensky as well. So Russia changed the scope of capturing Donbas and Luhansk, where they have slow success.

B) Russia has engaged in a war of attrition akin to WW1 trench warfare hoping that in future some opportunity will open up. In the tactical scope Russia has the upper hand because they are able to inflict more casualties amongst the ukr. However, unkil and EU throwing billions means Zelensky will continue to throw citizens as fodder.

Tactically Russia will continue to have minor victories but both sides have gone to long term game plan in terms of strategic vision. Russia is hoping that cutting off gas in winter would mean Eu will capitulate and give in to demands for a settlement. West is hoping that commodity prices will drop further and Russia will be deprived of funds which will cutoff their supply chain forcing Russia to capitulate.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Neither the west, nor Russia could predict the unfolding of this war after 24Feb - I agree on that.

In my reading Russia expected Kiev to fall in the initial weeks when they made the threat of a Russian invasion very real. The west did not let that happen, and are propping up the Kiev regime until now, even if its for America's own calculations. Ukraine is getting nothing out of this, nor is Europe.

Russia had 2 choices when Kiev stubbornly resisted backed by the west. Bomb the capital to rubble and invade completely or reassess and go for capturing Donbass and prolong the war. When the sanctions and media frenzy was let loose, Russia wisely chose the latter.

The sanctions mostly fizzled and came back to bite Europe and played into Russia's hands in many unexpected ways.

Over the top media propaganda of the west and their demands that the whole world polarise and back the sanctions also spectacularly backfired, and Russia did manage to gain a degree of understanding and sympathy from the Global East and South to its position and it's reasonable conduct of the war operations.

Now prolonging the war has little downside for Russia, but has instead pushed commodity and energy prices up and created dangerous instability for Europe, and has the US searching for a way out.

The current situation will appear to be a stalemate only if you are expecting a quick resolution. But as conflicts go, 6 months is not that long.

The west has no good options, Kiev regime is a puppet and will die as they're told to. They are the ones feeling stuck - which in a war means you have lost. Calling it stalemate is just putting some lipstick on the pig which is the ugly reality.

Russia holds most of the cards on the battlefield and beyond it, and have a bunch of options to take this war into different directions as they see fit. Most importantly they aren't running out of resources or soldiers and therefore have time. Therefore they are able to let their troops rest, regroup, shell the hell out of every enemy position before moving in with highly experienced troops to minimise their own losses significantly.

The style and tenor of Russian way of fighting has constantly changed over the past 6 months if you have noticed, they have shown that they are very good at reacting to situations, new weaponry and constantly adapting and refining their combat tactics.

No one is questioning why Wagner or Chechen troops are being used, force ratios, tanks vs infantry etc. anymore. The upper hand they have got allows them the luxury of TIME to plan, organise and attack where they want and when.

Ukranian forces have none of that. They are on the passive receiving end all the time and the humping is so hard, brutal that they cannot plan any counter offensive anymore. They've been trying perhaps half heartedly since months around Kharkiv with no success. Because all they have is out there and already under fire. No depth anymore.

There are many in Kiev and outside who keep projecting major counter offensive near Kharkiv, now near Kherson, with a million man army starting yesterday, tomorrow, next week, after summer, in the middle of winter etc. But Russian forces are chewing them up like acid through flesh - each passing day, doing what they could do yesterday is already impossible. Doing more , colossally more to launch a counter offensive is out of the realm of reality.

And even if they do launch a counter offensive - what will they accomplish? They cannot recapture all the territory they had before Feb. So what's the point? So assuage whose bruised ego and burning a$$?

The west has lost this war and Ukra-een is a gone country. And NATO forces have realised they won't do a whole lot better than the Ukrainians they have trained and brainwashed for 8+ years.

The sooner this is acknowledged and Kiev is pushed to surrender and discuss treaty terms, the better for all concerned.
Dragging this into winter is irresponsible and suicidal for Europe.

As for Ukra-een, a nation that persecutes it's own and is corrupt in all dimensions and to the core and has zero principles doesn't deserve to exist. They need to be reborn as a nation and as a people to wash away the mindset and inglory of the present and start afresh and hopefully do better. There is a chance of that happening under Russian tutelage. The west already had its chance and see how callously and spectacularly they blew it along with countless Ukrainiens in the process.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Cyrano wrote:Assuming your quoted source is accurate and RA gained "just" 165 sq km territory in July if in the process they inflicted 10s of thousands of troop casualties and destroyed lots of irreplaceable game changing equipment not to speak of morale - then are the Russian gains still = no progess and no further action can be taken by them?
It is hard to get any valid casualty figures but Ukrainians are claiming the amount of casualties have dropped quite a lot since when start of eastern offensive they where losing 100s. Anyway given that can be subjective and hard to get any factual on casualties.

Lets look at daily Ukr equipment losses released by even Russia media they are at near all time lows (or see list compiled by Oryx) in past few weeks indicating a stagnating offensive. Unless you have some proof otherwise.
Cyrano wrote:
Why will a Ukranian counter offensive enjoy weather advantage that the Russians won't?
Lot of pro Russians including Igor have brought up lack of winter fighting gear and concerns if conflicts goes into Fall. Also Russian supply lines seem to struggle traversing the muddy terrain (around Oct) we saw that play out in March. In other hand Ukraine doesn’t have to traverse far to bring in supplies and men and it’s supply of ammo seem to be better distributed (we haven’t seen many ammo depot hits on Ukr side in past 2 months).
Cyrano wrote:
Are the Russians really letting Ukr troops sit back and coolly destroy RA munitions depots? Because they can't do anything about it? :roll:
Yes currently the RusAF didn’t seem to be able to strike with Ukranian territory show me one bombing missile that was done in last 3 months. Most attacks have been stand off strikes against fixed targets. Without actively flying combat missions over enemy territory to take out missile launchers you can do very little to counter it, there is reason why USAF flew so many sorties to take out the Scuds in GW 1&2.


Interesting report by Russian media, looks like UkrAF is using HARM there was some reports that Ukraine received some HARM and were using it knock out S-300/400s but I disregarded it as BS. This wreckage might credibility to it which raises a question how did Ukraine manage to integrate HARM?

https://twitter.com/archer83able/status ... qkFJzfHb9A
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Missing the forest for the trees... Deliberately or not I can't tell. What's currently happening in Bakhmut, Soleda, Avidivka etc ? Ukr sitting back easy because RuAF is not bombing? What world are you living in man?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Weather or not Russia is making progress depends on what each side's timetable is. My view is that it has been slower than I expected, though I would hesitate to say `stagnated'. There is little precedent in recent military history of a side that is outnumbered (as Russia is), unable to achieve any surprise (because of NATO survelliance) and facing a heavily entrenched enemy, making fast progress. That said, whenever Russia has made breakthroughs, they have not had the resources to exploit it, nor have they been able to conduct offensives in multiple places.

Russia's goal is to de-militarize Ukraine, which becomes easier when Ukraine rushes semi trained troops to face Russian artillery. My sense is they would be quite happy to advance at a slower rate, if that results in higher Ukrainian casualties.

I believe this has become a question of who has the will to fight longer (and weather the assumptions each side has made about the other are true).

NATO assumptions about Russia were influenced by phase 1 and may have led them to believe that Russia will fold with just a little more Ukrainian resistance, hence the reluctance to give up any territory by Ukraine. This may be based on the following assumptions:
- Russian casualties being unsustainably high (while Ukraine's are not).
- Russians have run out of PGM's and some types of ammo. Logistics have broken down, poor quality of replacement weapons etc.
- Low morale, no replacement soldiers, leadership killed etc.
- Economy collapsing due to sanctions triggering domestic unrest.

Russian assumptions are:
- Ukrainian casualties are already far too high for them to continue the war. Once the truth is known there will either be a military coup
against Zelenski, or mass mutiny.
- NATO support for arming Ukraine is already declining and will decline more as winter approaches.
- Western public and political support for Ukraine is declining.

Ukraine needs a victory to confirm that NATO assumptions are correct, hence the pressure to conduct an offensive to liberate Kherson, since, as per NATO assumptions, Russian forces west of the Dnieper (in Kherson province) are low quality replacements, out of supplies and outnumbered by NATO equipped Ukrainians.

Russia needs a breakthrough in any sector of the front, or break the Sversk-Bakmuth-Avdeevka line (one will result in the other), to demonstrate that NATO's assumption are wrong. In the absence of this, if Ukraine keep losing more men than Russia, while holding their positions, that also suits Russia
Last edited by Deans on 09 Aug 2022 08:38, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Karan M »

Cyrano wrote:Missing the forest for the trees... Deliberately or not I can't tell. What's currently happening in Bakhmut, Soleda, Avidivka etc ? Ukr sitting back easy because RuAF is not bombing? What world are you living in man?
20% of Ukrainian territory is gone, their military has suffered 40-50% casualties plus, per leaked reports on the net, their MIC, and economy are now wrecked and dependent on aid, and "all is well".
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Dean's ji,
Russia's goal is to de-militarize Ukraine, which becomes easier when Ukraine rushes semi trained troops to face Russian artillery. My sense is they would be quite happy to advance at a slower rate, if that results in higher Ukrainian casualties
Bang on as usual! I see this is what is happening.

But a core of experienced and senior UA, SBU officers and various militia high rankers and officers are staying away from battlefield exposure - they have to be tackled now, instead of keep on killing conscripts who have been forced into the war with no training. That is sad annd serves no purpose at this point except to make statistics. Russia must not fall into that kind of rut.

The fat cats I mentioned above will all be ready to flee the country with bulging suitcases at a moment's notice when the dominos start falling which I suspect will happen when Bakhmut is captured and Karamatorsk comes under direct attack. Kherson counter is just talk for buying time for pocketing any last minute Billions $$$ that may still come in, sell whatever they still can on the black market and then disappear. Russia must focus on grabbing these war criminals as well and putting them on public trial.

This is very important to achieve the stated goals of demilitarisation and deNazification.

This will actually accelerate the end to this war because the inevitable rout of battered and demotivated frontline Ukrainian forces is very near and clear as day for all to see. (Except perhaps for our John ji here).
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Parasu »

Russia has not mobilised. Ukraine has.
In a war, where Russia is not able to "exploit breakthroughs" because of lack of infantry, that tells a lot.
1. Russia is winning because Ukraine has much higher casualties. Russia expects Ukraine to collapse at some point. The West hopes that Ukrainians will continue to die and kill.
2. Russia is unwilling to mobilise despite the need for infantry because it is afraid of social unrest. A long war is fine but domestic problems are not.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Interesting, could you elaborate on lack of inventory and fear of social unrest with some details?
Thanks
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Parasu »

Cyrano wrote:Interesting, could you elaborate on lack of inventory and fear of social unrest with some details?
Thanks
Lack of infantry!!! Poor demographics.
Social unrest bit is from my conversations with Russians. There is significant opposition to the war within Russia. General mobilisation may see increase in opposition to the ruling dispensation. That's probably the reason why Putin is refusing to mobilise despite hawkish elements in Russia calling for it.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by KL Dubey »

The Russians are now attacking New York. Its a small town west of Horlivka in the Donetsk republic.

It also looks like the Russians have now completely liberated the Lugansk republic.

And this is a smart move by Putin - fast track Russian citizenship to all Pakrainians.

https://ktar.com/story/5149671/ukraine- ... terrorism/

As I mentioned on the Nepal thread a while ago, integration of Nepal can occur without firing a single shot or rolling a single tank across the border, by adopting a variation of this procedure.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by mody »

By the way, with regards to the sanctions on Russia, there is been an unexpected result of the same. The Russian energy exports have been booming instead of being shut down. But at the same time, Russia's imports have suffered badly. They are not able to import a whole lot of stuff and this seems to be having a strong impact on manufacturing and IT related sectors in Russia.

Recently my company received a sample order for electromagnetic clutches from a company in Russia. Previously they were buying the same from the US. Now, we can offer a matching product and with almost an equally good performance. However, getting the payment from Russia and then shipping the material to them, was a real task. It took them almost 3 weeks to make the payment. For sending the material the only option is Speed Post. However, when you go to give the material to Speed Post, there is a general disclaimer that there is no guarantee when the material will be received at the destination and if it will be received at all. They claimed that a number of parcels had been lost in the recent past and the entire risk for sending the material lies with the consignor.

Now imagine trying to import a whole lot of stuff from all over the world and facing this kind of time delays and cost escalations and it would give some idea about the kind of impact that the Russian economy would be facing.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Parasu wrote:
Cyrano wrote:Interesting, could you elaborate on lack of inventory and fear of social unrest with some details?
Thanks
Lack of infantry!!! Poor demographics.
Social unrest bit is from my conversations with Russians. There is significant opposition to the war within Russia. General mobilisation may see increase in opposition to the ruling dispensation. That's probably the reason why Putin is refusing to mobilise despite hawkish elements in Russia calling for it.
* "hawkish elements" wanted gas/oil supplies cut from day 1 (Putin has achieved a lot more with his strategy - another thread)

* "mobilise", under Russian law, *means* "war". A "special operation" (which Putin declared a specific UN clause) is a rung or two under "war"

- Putin declared "special operation" under a specific UN clause (did not pull it out of his hat)(he would have had to use a totally diff UN clause to declare "war" and "mobilise")

* When I come across Russians (descendants) who claim there is opposition in Russia, ...... I have one question for them: "Would you prefer a Ukraine (corruption, etc) in Russia" (like it was before 2000)(most people have no idea what Russia was between 1990-2000)(I am not suggesting Putin is great)



* On "Lack of infantry": Russia just held full fledged maneuvers in the East. They are operating in Syria. There is no lack of any thing, so far. And, I seriously think the "combined West" (for a variety of reasons) will run out of things before Russia does

Russia has deployed a small portion/segment/... of her capabilities, including Russian troops. Unless NATO enter the fray this low level engagement will continue - to, perhaps, the irritation of many on the internet (people are not taking NATO's 2nd goal that they do not want a direct conflict with Russia seriously enough)

* On "Poor demographics": All of Europe and US has the same problem - the birth rate among whites is declining. In the US whites will be a minority by 2050. Japan is in terminal decline (cannot recover). The Rome Club and Klaus Schwab should be thrilled.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

$1 Billion in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
Capabilities in this package include:

* Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
* 75,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition;
* 20 120mm mortar systems and 20,000 rounds of 120mm mortar ammunition;
* Munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
* 1,000 Javelin and hundreds of AT4 anti-armor systems;
* 50 armored medical treatment vehicles;
* Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
* C-4 explosives, demolition munitions, and demolition equipment;
* Medical supplies, to include first aid kits, bandages, monitors, and other equipment
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Cyrano wrote:Missing the forest for the trees... Deliberately or not I can't tell. What's currently happening in Bakhmut, Soleda, Avidivka etc ? Ukr sitting back easy because RuAF is not bombing? What world are you living in man?
They are basically exchanging territories at this point, Russians are moving near Bakhmut where as Ukrainian are recapturing areas around Izyum and Donetsk (Mazanovka) which Russians took in July.

Big thing to watch is Kherson, Russians are moving forces from east over there to stem offensive and we don’t really know or have proper information on what’s happening there. Either Ukr offensive is happening sooner that I previously stated or Russians are overreacting or launching a counter offensive.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

NRao wrote: * "mobilise", under Russian law, *means* "war". A "special operation" (which Putin declared a specific UN clause) is a rung or two under "war"

- Putin declared "special operation" under a specific UN clause (did not pull it out of his hat)(he would have had to use a totally diff UN clause to declare "war" and "mobilise")

* When I come across Russians (descendants) who claim there is opposition in Russia, ...... I have one question for them: "Would you prefer a Ukraine (corruption, etc) in Russia" (like it was before 2000)(most people have no idea what Russia was between 1990-2000)(I am not suggesting Putin is great)

* On "Lack of infantry": Russia just held full fledged maneuvers in the East. They are operating in Syria. There is no lack of any thing, so far. And, I seriously think the "combined West" (for a variety of reasons) will run out of things before Russia does

* On "Poor demographics": All of Europe and US has the same problem - the birth rate among whites is declining. In the US whites will be a minority by 2050. Japan is in terminal decline (cannot recover). The Rome Club and Klaus Schwab should be thrilled.
Sums up my own thoughts NRao ji. I did business with Russia from the Yelstin era and lived there in Putin's first term. Russia is a lot better now and more than economic progress, Russians have got their self respect back. The general view in the business community in my time was that Ukraine was (and probably still is) more corrupt and inefficient than Russia.

Russia has peacekeeping / deterrence forces in Syria, Armenia, Moldivia and Tadjikstan which are a source of additional experienced infantry, as is
the garrison in Kaliningrad. There are 2 million people in Crimea and another million each in the newly liberated areas of Donetsk/Luhansk and in Kherson, who can provide volunteers. Kherson has just send its first trained brigade to the front, as part of a Russian division.

I think the reluctance to mobilise is partly because just sending more men to cover the same frontage means more casualties (as Ukraine is experiencing). It's possible that Russia needed more time to get their artillery and armored vehicles to combat readiness, build more ammo stocks and get their supply chain right, without which more infantry is useless.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

John wrote:
Cyrano wrote:Missing the forest for the trees... Deliberately or not I can't tell. What's currently happening in Bakhmut, Soleda, Avidivka etc ? Ukr sitting back easy because RuAF is not bombing? What world are you living in man?
They are basically exchanging territories at this point, Russians are moving near Bakhmut where as Ukrainian are recapturing areas around Izyum and Donetsk (Mazanovka) which Russians took in July.

Big thing to watch is Kherson, Russians are moving forces from east over there to stem offensive and we don’t really know or have proper information on what’s happening there. Either Ukr offensive is happening sooner that I previously stated or Russians are overreacting or launching a counter offensive.
Since 1st April, when phase 2 of the war began, I don't think there is any week in which Russia was in control of less territory than the previous week. I find the Military summary channel on Youtube, the most credible in this regard. So it wouldn't be correct to say they are exchanging territory. I would wait a week to see if claims of territory capture are acknowledged by the other side (which they are, if they are correct).

Kherson must be the most announced and overhyped Ukrainian offensive in recent military history. As I recall, it took place about 6 times already and after a couple of days there's a silence from the Ukraine MOD. On the previous occasion they claimed to have surrounded 2 Russian BTGs who were about to surrender. In the latest offensive, they claimed to have liberated 40 villages (a claim repeated by the Pentagon) without naming any of them. After that, the map actually showed Russia in control of more territory in Kherson, than before the offensive. So, I'd reserve judgement till I see a map both sides agree on.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

A point about logistics, which is frequently overlooked by us armchair analysts.

Of the major armed forces in the world, I believe Russia is the only one which has an academy only for teaching logistics and materials management in warfare. TV programs of the war cover lorry drivers and engineers as often as infantry and tank men.

I would therefore be sceptical about claims that they are undertaking offensives while supplies are running out, or that an entire army in Kherson
will lose their supplies if 2 bridges are destroyed. Every Russian field army has a railway engineering unit and an engineer brigade.
Currently there seems to be a shortage of trucks, which is as bad as a shortage of infantry. That can be resolved, once railway lines are extended to Lisichansk and Izyum and the line Mariupol - Crimea/Kherson starts handling higher volumes.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

^ Yea let’s see how they shape up at this point I think it’s gonna be waiting game till Fall.


Anyway looks like Crimean air base was hit, once again lot of confusion Russian MoD says it is accident explosion. Others are stating Ukr has used new cruise missile (based on Neptune ? Which begs how it evaded all AD there). Ukraine has not claimed or denied the attack as with similar incidents within Russia previously.

You can see Il-76 escaping the explosion which likely destroyed other jets stationed there

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1556 ... Gjw1nGX6gw

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1557 ... Gjw1nGX6gw

SAT images of the base hrs before strike you can see Il-76 along with numerous Sukhoi jets

https://twitter.com/whereisrussia/statu ... 8-7VOEde5A
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by sohamn »

at this point I have failed to fathom why Russia can't defend itself from cruise missiles or drones? Where is the highly vaunted S300/S400 units? Where is the air patrols?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Unconfirmed Russia reports (Russian are reportedly enforcing a complete telegram blackout so hard to get much info) indicate 15-20 jets destroyed but you can see 1 Su-24 destroyed in this vid by Crimean Firefighter we may need SAT images to confirm but base looks like total loss given a parking 700 meters away is completely wrecked.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... 8-7VOEde5A
sohamn wrote:at this point I have failed to fathom why Russia can't defend itself from cruise missiles or drones? Where is the highly vaunted S300/S400 units? Where is the air patrols?
Regarding S-300/400 failure, One of big mysteries of the war so far. Lot of theories but no one knows for certain.
Last edited by John on 10 Aug 2022 04:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

sohamn wrote:at this point I have failed to fathom why Russia can't defend itself from cruise missiles or drones? Where is the highly vaunted S300/S400 units? Where is the air patrols?
Both sides (Russia on one and US (not NATO) on the other) are playing a cat-and-mouse game.

Two stories that I have heard:

* US has collected every part of as many Russian missiles that have exploded in Ukraine. The expectations are that the US will reverse engineer the missiles and update their game plan

* WRT HIMARS, the S-300 did not provide a solution, but the S-400 did. Since the HIMARS have some 5-10 rockets/missiles, no idea what did the S-300 not solve and what did the S-400 solve? Do not know


What we can be certain of is that Russia is not showing more than a card or two in her deck. It means Russia is willing to take a major hit or two and any associated humiliation on the internet
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

It is speculated the missile Ukrainians used is this which was financed by Saudis. GROM or HRIM-2

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hrim-2
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by S_Madhukar »

Doesn’t the west want Ukr to fight till the last Ukr guy/gal? How does anyone see an endgame here… they would turn Ukr into a cold flat Afghanistan and mount guerilla infantry attacks if needed .. These days the current politicians dream of Reagan and Thatcher they can’t think any better. On a flat Ukr terrain easy and cheaper it is today to supply big ammo HIMARS. Etc more compact devastating automated machines than rely on a radicalised AK and Stinger totting Abdul. Sit back hide shoot and scoot. This can carry on as far as Unkil can keep supplying.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Pratyush »

sohamn wrote:at this point I have failed to fathom why Russia can't defend itself from cruise missiles or drones? Where is the highly vaunted S300/S400 units? Where is the air patrols?
Some possibilities come to my mind.

1) the numbers of launchers and surveillance and target tracking radars are insufficient to protect against a hit and run campaign across a broad front.

2) the operators are not trained enough to track the target and share a shooting solution with the launchers.

3) the mobile IADS is not as integrated as we have been led to believe.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Pratyush »

John wrote:It is speculated the missile Ukrainians used is this which was financed by Saudis. GROM or HRIM-2

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hrim-2
It looks remarkably similar to Iskander.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Pratyush wrote:
John wrote:It is speculated the missile Ukrainians used is this which was financed by Saudis. GROM or HRIM-2

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hrim-2
It looks remarkably similar to Iskander.
Yea Ukrainian def companies had close ties to Russia counterparts pre 2014 and lot of what they offered where based on existing Russian weapons (BTR-4, Stugna, Corsair, Neptune etc).
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Dilbu »

Russia might be protecting their version of S-400 from prying eyes of NATO. It might not be worth exposing the system to protect assets from these ‘minor’ hits in the larger scheme of things. Anyway in this conflict Russia has shown more willingness to accept casualties in exchange of maintaining its cards closer to chest.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Dilbu wrote:Russia might be protecting their version of S-400 from prying eyes of NATO. It might not be worth exposing the system to protect assets from these ‘minor’ hits in the larger scheme of things. Anyway in this conflict Russia has shown more willingness to accept casualties in exchange of maintaining its cards closer to chest.
Russia has deployed newer S-300 frontline and they are basically similar to S-400 without the newer missile as they use same radar. Other than longer range and may better engagement against lower RCS target it is not going to add anything else that newer S-300s can do.

Also If you believe Russian claim that a Ukrainian Flanker was shot down by S-400 north of Kyiv at start of war, missile debris of 40n6 already has fall over Ukraine and most likely been retrieved & given to US. Plus given that S-400 are operated by Turkey not sure they can really hide the system.

From what I can piece together Ukraine has managed to hit S-300/400 system with HARM using HIMARS strikes as a way to get them to activate the system and UkrAF (mig-29s?) hits them while it is trying to shoot down HIMARS rockets (see my post above of pic release by Russia on HARM wreckage) as a result Russians have been moving even more SAM systems out of Crimea to Kherson region leaving the former unguarded or with holes in coverage. This was exploited in that strike.

RusAF shoots down TB2 recently and interestingly these are one of old ones adding credibility to theory that sudden disappearence of TB2 footage (if you remember tons of footage was released in first 2 weeks) might be due to Turkish pressure.

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... -TQJNiv3Tw
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

As discussed previously: cat-and-mouse (Assumes the pictures are reliable)

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1 ... 2972883971
It's basically a game of chicken at this point, seeing who is willing to escalate further, and the US is currently winning bc Russia won't do stuff like e.g. down American AWACS planes in Poland
The following tweet was quoted in the previous tweet:

https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status ... 7060146177
It's becoming increasingly evident that the Pentagon is shipping more advanced weaponry to Ukraine than we'd been led to believe, including HARMS radar-homing missiles.

IMO, they're supplying small numbers of these weapons primarily to assess Russian capabilities to kill them.

Image
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