Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 16 May 2023 20:55

Air to ground missiles are easier to integrate if they are terrain following or use internal navigation. One still has to do drop and wake tests, envelope tests in regular flight and figure out what happens if the aircraft returns without launching the missile. All in all the qualification is still a battery of tests.

Although I suspect a lot of these may not have been done to expedite the delivery.

gashish · Post by **gashish** » 16 May 2023 22:02

Patriot battery toasted?

Arima · Post by **Arima** » 16 May 2023 22:07

gashish wrote:Patriot battery toasted?

1 of the prime reason Russia is tooth and nail against NATO country sharing border with Russia is Patriot missile defense. they would have prepared counter for years and when they got chance, they just finished 1 battery with saturated missile attack.

looks like attritional war on SAM and air defense level is at play. can NATO (us arms industry) replenish and fund Ukraine in this attritional war?

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 16 May 2023 22:37

Arima wrote:
looks like attritional war on SAM and air defense level is at play. can NATO (us arms industry) replenish and fund Ukraine in this attritional war?

NATO would absolutely love to do this. It's a win-win for them where they can keep their military industrial complex churning and keep Ukraine in perpetual debt through lend-lease schemes.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 17 May 2023 00:09

non stop news of missile/mlrs system getting lanceted https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/statu ... 09285?s=20

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 17 May 2023 00:12

https://twitter.com/ArthurM40330824/sta ... 20705?s=20 mostly robo firefighters went for romania border ammo blast, speculations and report sharp rise in radiation due to UK supplied UD shell evaporating

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 17 May 2023 00:19

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 17 May 2023 00:23

several handles reporting Bakhmut CO of Ukr was to create a safe zone for retreat and that has started, Pirozin said bakhmut is fully under control of Wagner except a sq km https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/ ... 64683?s=20

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 17 May 2023 00:52

Jay wrote:
Arima wrote:
looks like attritional war on SAM and air defense level is at play. can NATO (us arms industry) replenish and fund Ukraine in this attritional war?
NATO would absolutely love to do this. It's a win-win for them where they can keep their military industrial complex churning and keep Ukraine in perpetual debt through lend-lease schemes.

There is no NATO MIC anywhere worth it's name except in the US. And even the US industry cannot ramp up in a jiffy. The materials, tech and mfg processes have evolved so far away from the 1940s that the miracle production of that era cannot replicated.

Met with a person last weekend at a party who is working for a company hoping to get defense contracts from EU replenishment budgets. The entire system from end user to govt procurement, contractors, their suppliers is defunct. No one knows what's going on, huge loss of capabilities has occurred over decades at every level in the chain. With the so called NATO protection umbrella, the US has effectively neutered EU MIC and armies and have turned them into a joke. They will need decades to replenish to pre Ukr war level with their own production. So once again unkil will go laughing to the bank.

The Europeans are counting on Putin not bringing war directly into the continent either due to exhaustion or disinterest, or unkil bailing them out or nuclear dissuasion.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 17 May 2023 01:04

^ when houthis blew up a Saudi refinery , word was that they managed to disable a patriot battery to do that . I don't think this is good advert for patriot .

There was even a video floating around of it somewhere. But has been scrubbed since.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 17 May 2023 07:18

Cyrano wrote: There is no NATO MIC anywhere worth it's name except in the US. And even the US industry cannot ramp up in a jiffy. The materials, tech and mfg processes have evolved so far away from the 1940s that the miracle production of that era cannot replicated.

Met with a person last weekend at a party who is working for a company hoping to get defense contracts from EU replenishment budgets. The entire system from end user to govt procurement, contractors, their suppliers is defunct.

Without being pedantic, that's what I meant which is US is NATO, NATO is US. US has been ramping up productions of all of its munitions, and other weapon systems in the wake of this war. The 2023 national defense authorization act has earmarked huge dollars towards this effort and they are wasting no time because they know that one way or another, its not just for Ukraine, but the entire European continent is on a buying spree right now, and with Russian production capacity curtailed, it also opens up new markets. This ramp up for obvious reasons is not at the same level as WW2 productions numbers, but this is the largest since the end of the great war.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 17 May 2023 08:57

gashish wrote:Patriot battery toasted?

Damn. How many SAMs did it launch... At least 2 dozen. Still got fried in the end.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 17 May 2023 10:41

A high end Sam is limited by the numbers of interceptors it can launch. Before it has to be reloaded.

Once ready to launch interceptors are shot. It's just very high end junk.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 17 May 2023 11:31

Interesting https://twitter.com/HansvanEeken59/stat ... 42528?s=20

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 17 May 2023 16:02

All this still does not change the fact that russian MIC needs to go 2X or 3X of the current level in order to reach its goals. Infantry wise the picture from Bakhmut for them is not good. Allies will eventually supply jets to europe and also longer range missiles. Unless Russia turns on the heat 5X on Ukrainian infrastructure - the odds are not in favor of russian goals. They might still be able to stick around. More hinterland infra has to be hit and taken out of action. Taking out a few batteries here and there, although good wont be enough.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 17 May 2023 19:38

Cain Marko wrote:
gashish wrote:Patriot battery toasted?
Damn. How many SAMs did it launch... At least 2 dozen. Still got fried in the end.

I counted 30 in about 90seconds. There is a cut in the video so no one can tell just from this video alone how much time elapsed between these launches and the final explosion. At the very least I see this as Russia is able to identify the location of the SAM battery and target it close enough. They only need to get lucky once.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 17 May 2023 23:03

so far there doesn't seem to be a way for Russia to punish UK , Europe or US who are supplying lethal aid to Ukraine, heck what Ukr def min saying Iran is legit target cos its supplying drone to Russia, however Russia has no means to punish former.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 17 May 2023 23:30

Notice how NATO has pulled out Afganistan and not involved in any conflict in Africa or Middle east, a few years down the line when that happens, Russia will get its chance for revenge. Unless Russia completely losses this war with Ukraine.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 18 May 2023 05:26

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 19 May 2023 14:43

On Russian missiles destroying Patriot batteries recently:

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/ana ... um=reader2

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 19 May 2023 20:17

Fascinating read. But I believe he is in error when he states the missile/warhead loses velocity after reaching motor burnout or the apex of trajectory. Acceleration from gravity is the whole point of boosted glided munitions.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 19 May 2023 20:59

Wont they decelerate in denser layers of atmosphere and approach terminal velocity if no longer powered ?

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 20 May 2023 02:20

Terminal velocity is not a constant. It depends on the shape of the object. As well as being proportional to the mass.

Terminal velocity over Chinese armour in the Himalayas will be different from Vt over Pakistani water powered tanks in the plains.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 20 May 2023 09:26

It seems the UK has given Ukraine Storm Shadow

That's a major escalation. SS is a very potent stick and has a pretty long range. Could probably hit targets within Russia. The phuck is UK playing at?

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 20 May 2023 11:19

Cain Marko wrote:It seems the UK has given Ukraine Storm Shadow

That's a major escalation. SS is a very potent stick and has a pretty long range. Could probably hit targets within Russia. The phuck is UK playing at?

Last rona dhona of a dying economy. Of all major western economies, UK is the only one contracting. But more in news is that F16 will be provided to Ukraine. They will make only a small difference on ground but a lot more in terms of morale for Ukraine. Unless Russia ups its own defence production by 2X to 5X! Im really looking forward to a thud of nuclear explosion on Ukraine by the end of this year! All contributed by the western lunacy.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 20 May 2023 13:08

The latest is that US has agreed to supply of F16 jets to Ukraine. I dont think US itself is supplying any: just that it has agreed to other nations supplying it to Ukraine.

Moi thinks that this is another way for US to accelerate the sale of F35…

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 20 May 2023 13:34

YashG wrote:All this still does not change the fact that russian MIC needs to go 2X or 3X of the current level in order to reach its goals. Infantry wise the picture from Bakhmut for them is not good. Allies will eventually supply jets to europe and also longer range missiles.

There are several constraints to Russia ramping up armaments production.
Consider for e.g. 152mm shells, which account for most Ukrainian casualties.

Russian production in 2021 was estimated to be 1.2 million shells with another 200k old shells reconditioned.
Assume they ramp up to 3 million 152mm shells in 2023 (more than double), that is 8000 shells a day.

Throughout the war they have fired 20,000 * 152mm shells /day, by using old stock estimated, at about 11 million shells (net of weapons storage
sites hit, but excluding old defective shells). Once they consume this stock, they will not be able to use more than 8000 shells/ day.
Ukraine is using about3-4000 shells /day in a defensive mode and with much better targeting info.
It implies Russia cannot go on the offensive if they are limited to 8000/ day. They are barely making progress with 20,000 shells/day.
By 2024, NATO will also ramp up to 8000 shells/ day.

Russia's limitations are the lack of manpower in ordnance factories (there wasn't any surplus even when making 1.5 million/ year), lack of imported
machines and lack of capacity to recondition worn out gun barrels.

From Sept onwards Russia will not be able to match NATO armaments flowing into Ukraine. Their only hope is for Ukrainian manpower to be
killed off before that AND to occupy territory which can easily be defended and big enough to claim a victory.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 20 May 2023 13:53

Based on reports in telegram channels, RuAF bombed the few remaining buildings in Bakhmut under Ukr control with glide bombs and also incendiary munitions and pretty much reduced everything to ashes. Surviving AFU have started evacuating and they still have to cross areas under Ru fire control. Ru forces recovering huge stashes of NATO supplies from zones they have taken control in the city. So it seems Bakhmut is done.

I'd think with the huge losses of personnel, massive destruction of munition dumps, symbolic resistance at Bakhmut coming to naught and a few penetration attacks i.e. the famed winter/spring/summer counter offensives hardly denting Ru defense lines despite heavy losses for the AFU attacking troops, all put together paint a dismal image of AFU and NATO efforts. The biggest hammer blow is the destruction of Patriot batteries and radar by Kinzhals. Their morale is perhaps the lowest ever.

What next for Russian war planners? Do they consider AFU weakened enough to go forward to Kramatorsk zone which is an important AFU military base, and/or up the ante across the frontlines and attack Kharkiv and Odessa ? Lets see...

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 20 May 2023 14:04

Cain Marko wrote:It seems the UK has given Ukraine Storm Shadow

That's a major escalation. SS is a very potent stick and has a pretty long range. Could probably hit targets within Russia. The phuck is UK playing at?

UK crossed some significant lines by supplying D-Ur shells (most of which went up in smoke, now raising fallout concerns) and now SS. This truculence raises no concerns from EU countries or allies. They are all in some psychotic mind warp.

By now, Ru forces would have no worry about whatever conventional weapons the west may supply to Ukr. They will take a few hits, but as they have done with Byrakhtars, Himars, Patriots and various other, they will sooner or later develop counter measures and find ways of destroying the Storm Shadows or whatever else within depots, or jam them with ECM or bring them down with their missile defense systems.

Russia has taken unimaginable level of learnings from actual hi-intensity battle situations of the performance, tactics, logistics needs and vulnerabilities of NATO systems, and have improved their own weapons, systems and tactics to defeat them.

Anyone here zimbly dissing Ru systems here must take a pause and seriously reassess.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 20 May 2023 14:05

Deansji, I think the war is pretty much at a stalemate. Russia is in no position to take any more large scale offensive manoeuvres. It has got the territory it wanted and it is up to Ukraine to recover its lost third of the country. Russia will be happy to stay put until a ceasefire inevitably comes along.

Long term though I don’t see how this works out of Russia. There will be a raging insurgency in that region and the sanctions will never be revoked to pre war levels.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 20 May 2023 16:32

Deans wrote:....

From Sept onwards Russia will not be able to match NATO armaments flowing into Ukraine. Their only hope is for Ukrainian manpower to be
killed off before that AND to occupy territory which can easily be defended and big enough to claim a victory.

Thanks, very informative. But even if NATO ramps up, the funds to supply ukraine will also decline.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 20 May 2023 16:32

Tanaji wrote:Deansji, I think the war is pretty much at a stalemate. Russia is in no position to take any more large scale offensive manoeuvres. It has got the territory it wanted and it is up to Ukraine to recover its lost third of the country. Russia will be happy to stay put until a ceasefire inevitably comes along.

Long term though I don’t see how this works out of Russia. There will be a raging insurgency in that region and the sanctions will never be revoked to pre war levels.

Russia's only solution is to get more territory and finish off most of Ukraine's manpower by the end of summer, then ask for a ceasefire. If they occupy the Donbass and the non Donbass areas they currently occupy, that area has been depopulated of pro Ukraine people, They will probably have to take more territory along the Russian border (opp Kharkov, Sumy and Chernigov) and trade it for more Donbass territory - then agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO and sanctions lifted. NATO will only agree if Ukraine can't fight any longer and they realise that continuing the war will lead to serious damage to Europe's economy.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 20 May 2023 16:48

It's much too soon to be thinking about a ceasefire or even an armistice.

The Russians in the December 21 letter to the American's has listed some objectives. The US as is it's style, threw that letter in the dust bin.

Unless the Russians achieve the list of demands of the letter this war is not going to end.

The relevant question to ask is, can the US hold the line against Russia. While it also has to get ready to fight PRC.

Ukraine exists or not is immaterial.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 20 May 2023 17:02

what was discussed! Why Mudi agreed to meet this clown

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 20 May 2023 17:15

Terms of Ukrainian surrender to Russia.

MeshaVishwas · Post by **MeshaVishwas** » 20 May 2023 17:21

New
@RUSI_org
report by
@Jack_Watling
& Nick Reynolds that includes many interesting and previously undisclosed details on the war. For example, "[a]ccording to the Ukrainian Air Force, the longest-range recorded kill by a Russian R-37[M] was at 177 km."

-@GuyPlopsky on Twitter
Unsure of the target type but mighty impressive number right there.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 20 May 2023 17:24

There is NSA Doval too, and presumably JS.

Modi would have told Z put the interests of your people and your country first. And then the way out will become clear to you. If you _start_ making the right choices, India will support you.

We will not venture like the Chinese into details of terms etc when Z is still in a bubble. He has to be brought down to earth first.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 20 May 2023 17:27

fact that he had to meet him F2F when Z is in no way involved in G7 means India is under a lot of pressure from US

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 20 May 2023 18:15

Why saar? You mean to say we are afraid to meet Z ? LoL ! If anything Z would be afraid to meet Modi like a street thug would be to meet the head kotwal !

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 20 May 2023 18:35

not exaclty! Z doesn't deserve to meet a self made leader like Mudi, this increases fraud Z's stature