Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[Cyrano]

[Nihat]

This is like posting from cnn

[sanman]

Russia buying back weapons & parts from India:




Well, that's one way to even out the lopsided rupee-ruble trade.

[vijayk]

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36 ... 1cf64bd375
Current Russian occupied parts of Ukraine

[Deans]

@MikaelValterss1 (Mikael Valtersson) has a fairly good and in my opinion, unbiased account of the ongoing Ukrainian counter offensive.
He is a Swedish politician and former army officer.
Also Big Serge on Twitter.

[Tanaji]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-65816109

Seems that there is a major breach of a dam in Kherson.

It’s the Nova Khakovka dam on the Dnipro. Both sides are blaming each other. Who knows…

[sudhan]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65806152

Looks like the much vaunted offensive has begun. UKR may not call it that until they can showcase a major victory.

[IndraD]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-65816109

Seems that there is a major breach of a dam in Kherson.

It’s the Nova Khakovka dam on the Dnipro. Both sides are blaming each other. Who knows…

this is like Russia blowing Nord stream
Very evidently job of ukronazis. Water will sweep through trenches & defences lines. Besides cutting off water supply to Crimea.
Even before dam job, Z posted congratulations to journalists across world for winning information warfare in advace
With every passing day US/Ukr will cross more red lines hoping Russia does something rash and war can be frozen till US elections.

[IndraD]

@MikaelValterss1 (Mikael Valtersson) has a fairly good and in my opinion, unbiased account of the ongoing Ukrainian counter offensive.
He is a Swedish politician and former army officer.
Also Big Serge on Twitter.

thanks for suggesting this useful handle! his commentary on dam burst:

NEWS UPDATE & ANALYSIS NOVA KAKHOVKA DAM DESTROYED MORNING JUNE 6
The very large hydroelectric powerplant (HPP) dam over the Dniepr in northern Kherson oblast (region) has been destroyed. Exactly what happened is unclear, Ukraine and its western allies blame Russia. Some russian sources blame Ukraine. There is also a third alternative. The dam could have been damaged from earlier explosions.

Ukraine did its best during the Khersonoffensive to cut the road on top of the dam with serveral missile strikes, and the dam might have got structural damage then. Earlier this year Ukraine closed the reservoirs further north on the Dniepr and some experts thought that was to lower the water level in the reservoir to make offensive operations easier. But later Ukraine opened up the water. The reservoir has been filling up with this water and it has put pressure on the Nova Kakhovka dam.

There are no reasons for Russia to blow up the dam, since the water flowing to the south will mainly overflow the russian left eastern side of the river (look on the before and after maps) and the russian fortifications there. So the main alternatives are either that the ukrainian side destroyed the dam, but no large explosions has been seen, in preparation for the summer offensive, or that the dam collapsed under water pressure due to structural damage.

The dam continue to collapse in sections and the water level in the reservoir sink with 15 cm each hour. For now there are no problems with cooling of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP). But it might have to be closed if cooling becomes a problem.

Water supply of Crimea are not threatened. The canal to Crimea starts north of the dam and it can be closed if water levels in the reservoir becomes to low. The small reservoirs along the canal are also filled to 80 percent.

Power supply might become a large problem in large parts of Ukraine both in ukrainian and russian controlled territory if both Nova Kakhovka HPP and ZNPP are put out of function. Ukrainian economy will also get a hit since Ukraine has been able to export surplus electricity to Europe, which will be impossible now.

If the ukrainian side close the dams north of the reservoir, water levels can get very low in the reservoir. It will make an attack over the reservoir much easier, but first the freed bottom must dry up, otherwise it will be hard to support anything else than very light infantry units. South of the dam some swy it will make an ukrainian attack easier since russian defence lines will be destroyed, but for a while the left eastern back will be overflowed and the Dniepr much broader. This will make it hard to build bridges and move heavy equipment over the river.

https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/sta ... 19584?s=20

[gakakkad]

Mikael valterss is a gem. Surprising clarity and objectivity from a former eu politician and military bureaucrat.

I think the dam blowing up will be used as an excuse for why the counter offensive failed.

[IndraD]

videos of Ru forces abandoning posts leaving behind equipments due to drowning

[Tanaji]

So is this the Ukranian prelude to the much vaunted counter offensive?

[IndraD]

So is this the Ukranian prelude to the much vaunted counter offensive?

their spectacular CO was launched 2 days ago and resulted in massive Ukrainian losses so CO for now is buried quietly under, instead Nato/Ukr will undertake terrorist operations like cross border raids, shell border villages, destroy dams https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/sta ... 44002?s=20

NEWS UPDATE VREMIVKA SALIENT AFTERNOON JUNE 6
There seems to be a lull in the fighting at the Vremivka Salient today. During the night russian forces retook Novodonetske (red shade), but after that no major attacks in counterattacks has been reported. The status of Novodarivka (yellow shade) is unclear. Some sources claim it's under russian control, other that's it under ukrainian control.

On prorussian, and usually reliable, Rybar's maps it's marked as under ukrainian control. At the same time proukrainian, and also usually reliable, DeepStateUA's maps it's marked as under russian control. Suriyakmaps agree with DeepStateUA, so let us say that Novodarivka is in the grey zone ie unclear who controls it.

After a couple of days hard fighting the frontline is nearly the same as in June 3rd, with the exeption of a ukrainian controlled salient west of Novodonetske and maybe Novodarivka. No major ukrainian territorial gains and high ukrainian casulties.

there are several vidoes on SM of armoured vehicles of Ukr on fire, leopard lookalike tank on fire, equipments & personnel lanceted .. after every spectacular failure of Ukr there is some terrorist attack: Belgorod cross border attack followed Bakhmut, after CO failure from yesterday dam blown.

[YashG]

What are the russian options to disable an approaching column of vehicles from 3-9 kms away that has been picked?

1. Artillery ( has to be massed or calibrated repeatedly against moving vehicles, not a very good option)
2. Helicopter based anti tank missiles ( Limited by availability of helicopters & coordination)
3. ATGMs (effective only when very close)
4. CAS (expensive and requires even more coordination)
5. Attack UAVs - do they have penetrating power against heavy armor ?

??

[YashG]

+ whats up with prigozhin?

His statements are increasingly roasting russia - he could be saying truth but wouldnt that screw up his equation with putin ?
Or he is playing for influence with russian authorities...
Has he soured with putin ?

Whats his game, I cant understand

[Tanaji]

What are the russian options to disable an approaching column of vehicles from 3-9 kms away that has been picked?

1. Artillery ( has to be massed or calibrated repeatedly against moving vehicles, not a very good option)
2. Helicopter based anti tank missiles ( Limited by availability of helicopters & coordination)
3. ATGMs (effective only when very close)
4. CAS (expensive and requires even more coordination)
5. Attack UAVs - do they have penetrating power against heavy armor ?

??

Tank traps and mines to slow down the advance and then picked off using above means I would guess.

[Cyrano]

videos of Ru forces abandoning posts leaving behind equipments due to drowning

Like posters have said, this dam break will hide CO losses for a few days. But looking beyond that, the Kherson delta region getting inundated heavily will make it impossible for Russian land forces to reach Odessa any time soon. Its may take many weeks well into summer for the water flow to reduce and ground to dry out. Until that happens, even if AFU gets fully trounced and is rendered ineffective elsewhere along the frontlines, Russia cannot call it a day and start negotiations because Odessa is not recovered yet. Amphibious assault is very casualty heavy and Russia is very careful to avoid that. So the SMO will have to continue for few more months to create conditions for land assault of Odessa. Then come autumn rains, again making for soggy ground until winter freeze hardens the ground sufficiently, meanwhile AFU will hope to raise again from the ashes with foreign money, hired soldiers and some more Ks of hastily trained conscripts. So we are looking at SMO stretching well into 2024 because it will again take months to conquer Odessa from whenever the moment a direct assault starts.

IMO, Russia has achieved 2/3rd of its objectives. Kharkiv and Odessa are 2 must haves before it can envisage any kind of ceasefire. After having invested so much and taken the hits they have, if they dont get back these 2 cities, they will not get such an opportunity for decades again.

Therefore, I see this dam break as a way to frustrate Russia in the medium term.

Wonder what similar tactic Ukr can come up with to frustrate Russian plans regarding Kharkiv. A lot can happen in a year...

[Deans]

What are the russian options to disable an approaching column of vehicles from 3-9 kms away that has been picked?

1. Artillery ( has to be massed or calibrated repeatedly against moving vehicles, not a very good option)
2. Helicopter based anti tank missiles ( Limited by availability of helicopters & coordination)
3. ATGMs (effective only when very close)
4. CAS (expensive and requires even more coordination)
5. Attack UAVs - do they have penetrating power against heavy armor ?

??

Tank traps and mines to slow down the advance and then picked off using above means I would guess.

Anti Tank ditch followed by a tank trap, then another anti tank ditch. In between the ditches is a minefield.
Along with ATGMs are T-62 / 64 in concealed positions, used as Anti Tank guns.
UAVs are hitting softer targets like Artillery and APCs.

[IndraD]

Ukr releasing more water to drown damaged dam & beyond


NEWS UPDATE NOVA KAKHOVKA EVENING JUNE 7
I don't know who's responsible for destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam, but if you do what you can to worsen the situation and destroy the remnants of the dam, you're the prime suspect, not the victim. Ukraine keeps the gates at Dnipro HDD open (video) and the water streams southward. The already undermined remnants of the Novo Kakhovka dam risk to totally collapse from the water pressure and later on, the flooding of Kherson oblast are worsened.

That's an clear indication that Ukraine on purpose worsen the situation and are also a clear indication that Ukraine was the original culprit. The fact that the ukrainians also increased the level of water in the reservoir before the destruction of the dam are not an proof of their guilt. They couldn't know that the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam. There could be some natural cause for opening the gates at Dnipro HDD before the destruction of the Novo Kakhovka dam, but afterwards nothing could be more important than to lessen the flooding in Kherson oblast.
https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/sta ... 02708?s=20

[IndraD]

NEWS UPDATE AMMONIA PIPELINE NOON JUNE 7
The worlds longest ammonia pipeline, 2470 km, going from Togliatti at the Volga to three harbours at the Black Sea has been breached near Masyutivka (red dot left of M) in the Kupiansk region. It happened at June 5th, the day before the destruction of the Novo Kakhovka dam. Both sides blame each other. The pipeline has been shut down since February 2022, but there seems to be ammonia in it.

The pipeline has played an important part in the grain deal. The opening of the pipeline for ammonia deliveries from Russia was a demand from the russian side for allowing ukrainian grain shippments. This has not happened so Russia on June 2nd, stopped any further grain shipments until the pipeline is opened again.

The ukrainian side claims that russian artillery shelling destroyed a pumping station near Masyutivka and that no leakage of ammonia has been observed. The russian side claims on the other side that ukrainian force's blew up the pumping station and that a lot of ammonia has been released and blown towards the ukrainian lines. This has forced the ukrainians to abort military operations in the area. Russia claims that at least one are dead and three hospitalised.

I don't know the exact location of the pumping station, but since russian forces control the eastern side of the Oskil river and have a beachhead (red line) on the western side, the pumping station ought to be on the western side as well if it has been hit by russian artillery. The ukrainians could have blown up the pipeline anywhere on their territory but by doing it at the front they could easily blame the russians. By the video it seems that russian claims of a leakage at least are confirmed.

There are at present impossible to say who did it. There are arguments pro and against both sides. Russia wants to export ammonia so that would talk against the russians. The russians could of course have given up on the prospect of exporting ammonia and want to shift blame on Ukraine for the abandonment of the grain deal. The same could be said about the ukrainian side. They want to export grain, but not, it seems, if that allows Russia to gain income from ammonia export.

If the pipeline is destroyed and unusable there has been two blows to important infrastructure in a couple of days. https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/sta ... 25728?s=20

full details https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wh ... 023-06-07/

[Cyrano]

This war is degenerating because one side can no longer really fight conventionally but the other side can't or won't deliver the coup de grâce.

Starting to look like an ugly divorce...

[Tanaji]

In the end its Ukranian strategic assets that are getting destroyed , by either themselves or Russians. The dam was a critical resource, next the ammonia terminal, then countless factories…

Goes to show what happens when you have such leaders.

It absolutely can happen in India if the likes of Kejriwal or Mamta come into power.

[Aditya_V]

How is the fact that EU farmers were complaining about Ukrainian agricultural exports, now Ukrainian agricultural land and fertilizer production is hit by this?

The rich fat cats in the world are bound to make money from the inevitable increase in food prices.

[IndraD]

So US has announced launch of much anticipated Ukrainian CO https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... offensive/

[IndraD]

Ukraine dam’s reservoir can no longer cool nuclear plant: operator https://insiderpaper.com/ukraine-dams-r ... -operator/

[IndraD]

Leopard burning !
Proukrainian DeepStateUA confirms loss of Leopard 2A4 https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/sta ... 09729?s=20

[IndraD]

Ukraine’s Big Offensive Kicks Off To Tough Resistance
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u ... resistance

lots of nuggets: as of now
UA tanks, armoured vehicles taking hits, suffering serious casualties however this is expected and UA is only probing for now more firepower is coming
They want to cut off Crimea.

[Jay]

Leopard burning !
Proukrainian DeepStateUA confirms loss of Leopard 2A4 https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/sta ... 09729?s=20

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ ... _as_a_uaf/

[VishnuS]

Ukraine’s Big Offensive Kicks Off To Tough Resistance
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u ... resistance

lots of nuggets: as of now
UA tanks, armoured vehicles taking hits, suffering serious casualties however this is expected and UA is only probing for now more firepower is coming
They want to cut off Crimea.

Indra Bhai, everyone is expecting that more will come but these probing attacks had cost a lot.

In the last probing attacks, 3700 UKR forces lost their life and 50 tanks and armoured vehicles were lost compared 15 Russian tanks and unknown number of Russian soldiers.

So, I doubt if the Ukraine tries to do more probing attacks without proper planning.

[gakakkad]

I think the probing nonsense is narrative spinning . This is what they got . That's why additional 2 billion was released overnight by unkil.

[IndraD]

allegedly Bradley/leo tanks in clusterfk

where is Ukr NATO's ADs

[YashG]

Probing attacks story is half truth. We haven't yet seen full force of Ukrainian reserves. But Ukraine did not expect to go nowhere with these probing attacks.

[gakakkad]

I am sure some of the force is in defensive positions around kiev , from the ByeloRussian border as also guiding supply lines near polish borders...

[Tanaji]

It’s quite odd: normally Ukranian channels and BBC is up to the brim with breathless coverage of how great they are doing and poorly equipped Russians fleeing. And Putin suffering from yet another fatal disease.

Right now there is not much coverage of the counter attack. So either there hasn’t been much action (more likely) or is not going well for them.

[IndraD]

ANALYSIS UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE ZAPORIZHIA AFTERNOON JUNE 9
Hard fighting continues along the Zaporizhia front, but with no ukrainian breakthrough. Sometimes UkrAF makes small gains and then RuAF retakes the lost territories. But all fighting are still being conducted in the gray area in front of the russian main defence lines (map 3)

I will not go into details about attacks and counterattacks but the main areas of fighting has been centred around Lobkove to the west, and Robotino to the south, of Orikhiv. Lobkove was captured a short while by ukrainian forces but later they retreated due to intense russian bombardments.

In Robotino russian forces retreated to the second line of forward positions nearer the settlement, then russian forces retook the lost positions and presently ukrainian forces has taken them a second time and now russian forces try to retake the first line a second time. But still the ukrainians has not reached the settlement of Robotino and they are fighting an uphill battle in open terrain (see topographical map 2) through russian minefields and might have to withdraw a second time to their original positions.

The ukrainian forces doesn't seem to swep mines in advance of the attack. They do it with a couple of mine clearing vehicles when they attack and behind them the ukrainian armour advance in a column that is an easy target for russian AT assets. In a way it resembles the russian armour columns in the beginning of the war. Columns that took catastrophic losses to ukrainan AT weapons, a history now repeated by the ukrainans.

In advance of an offensive the attacking side must secure air and artillery superiority so they can shield their mine clearing operations and troop concentrations. And at the same time destroy the defenders command structures and logistical hubs. Finally when they attack their air and artillery superiority can be utilised to severely hurt and slow down enemy reserves to secure breakthroughs. This becomes even more important if the enemy has large reserves and a defence in depth.

On the Zaporizhia front the situation is the opposite, so ukrainian forces hasn't many choices how to act. One method is to achieve strategic surprise as in the Kharkiv offensive last autumn. That option doesn't exist on the Zaporizhia front. In general I would say that an attack towards an enemy who has all the benefits RuAF has on the Zaporizhia front is suicidal.

The only way ukrainian (and western) commanders even could have contemplated that such an offensive could succeed was if 1, western weapons was much superior to russian weapons, 2, western trained soldiers much superior to russian soldiers and 3, russian morale was dismal. If all these factors where true, UkrAF might have had a chance to succeed, but nothing seems to corroborate those assumptions.

Many on the ukrainian and western side had anticipated hard initial resistance from RuAF, but after 2-3 days fighting and advances of around 6-8 km, they expected an increasing collapse of russian morale and the real breakthroughs would come. Nothing of this seems to be other than wishful thinking since fighting still are in the grey zone and russian resistance are unbroken. At the same time ukrainian forces take heavy casulties both in soldiers and vehicles.

The offensive isn't over yet and the main ukrainian attack fist remains with probably over 600 tanks and as many IFVs around Orikhiv. But the future for the ukrainian offensive looks bleak if their vanguard is destroyed before they reach the russian main defencelines. The probability is large that Ukraine has to use up their main force to get through a couple of the russian defencelines and then they will run out of forces to exploit any successes and be forced to withdraw.

To summarise, the most likely outcome of the ukrainian offensive is minor territorial gains at a horrendous cost. As I've said before it seems to be Kursk 2.0 https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/sta ... 54539?s=20

[Tanaji]

But… but… I was assured that a force of Leo2 with Bradleys and Himars was going to make short work of the poor untrained Russians with their inferior weapons…

Almost as if smart tactics and adapting do make much more of a difference… who knew

[IndraD]

[Roop]

It’s quite odd: normally Ukranian channels and BBC is up to the brim with breathless coverage of how great they are doing and poorly equipped Russians fleeing.

Right now there is not much coverage of the counter attack. So either there hasn’t been much action (more likely) or is not going well for them.

It's like that Sherlock Holmes story ("Silver Blaze") about the dog that didn't bark.

And Putin suffering from yet another fatal disease.

That poor slob Putin has been diagnosed with every deadly disease known to medical science in the last 9 years, and yet he is still around, looking stronger and healthier than Zhou Bhaijaan, BoJo and Elensky rolled into one.This is baffling, almost as if the best spies that London and Langley can provide were lying all along. Why,I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell you!!

[sanman]

I assume that the Russians will be attacking and re-taking Odessa soon, since that's a major Russian-speaking city.

Doing that will be key to linking up with Transniestr region. All these areas will then be linked up with Russia proper.

[Pratyush]

This appears to be fake news. Can't find it on Google.