Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

John · Post by **John** » 13 Jun 2022 20:52

Pratyush wrote:
Baikul wrote:Interview on performance of the Russian T-80BVM on combat. Russian source. Translation.

Interestingly the tanker says they were aware of the now famous problem of the tanks blowing up spectacularly when hit by ATGM fire under the cupola.

https://telegra.ph/A-bit-about-the-T-80BVM-06-13
This was identified during the first Chechen war. So not really surprising. What is surprising is the inability to fix it over the last 27 years.

Well it’s T-64 vs T-72 debate Soviet priority was to achieve numerical superiority and loss of tanks (and crew) was acceptable. We can see that play out in Ukraine as well with Russian combat maneuvers.

But Russia cannot afford to do that as it’s seeing a decline in population and also throw in $$ electronics on even T-72 you end up with tanks like T-90 while it’s cheaper than tanks like Arjun or M1a2. Buts it’s not 5x price difference you saw in Cold War and you are not going to achieve a large enough numerical superiority to outweighs its drawbacks.

John · Post by **John** » 13 Jun 2022 22:12

Aldonkar wrote:
John,

A comment on the poor performance of Kuwaiti and Saudi forces. I believe their poor performance is due to the fact that their commanders are not selected on merit but by nepotism. If you are related to the ruling family you are given a commission in the Armed Forces. An able commoner does not have a chance.

Thus the Kuwaiti Army was virtually invisible against Saddam's forces. Likewise, the Saudi forces, both in the Gulf war 1 and against the Houtis in Yemen has not exactly covered themselves in glory. Remember in Gulf War 1 the overall Commander (supposedly) was a Saudi Prince Khalid bin Sultan but in reality was Norman Scwarzkopf.

IA colleague at work, who was ex Army, recounted a course he attended at Sandhurst where there was a Saudi Army candidate. He was so hopeless he failed all the physical exercise tests. He was a Saudi Prince.

If I told there was invasion where the main focus was taking the capital and capital building at all costs, minimal artillery bombardment or air strikes prior to invasion to maintain element of suprise, brides to get local forces to switch sides prior to conflict, a failed airborne assault (one of largest post in decades), soldiers dressed as civilians to infiltrate.

You probably think I was talking about Russia’s Kyiv invasion but that’s actually Iraq invasion of Kuwait. I don’t know want to change this into Gulf war discussion but yes Kuwaitis didn’t perform that well but we cannot discount Iraqi tactics and strategy. If Kyiv had fallen in a week people would be saying the same thing about Ukraine.

As for Saudi Arabia and Yemen, the very fact that Houthi have not run over the south inspite of incompetence of Saudi coalition forces and the in fighting between them is testament to how much air power is critical to a combat. However with Houthis now starting to achieve success and also Ukraine achieving somewhat of stalemate with Russia, I do wonder with increased prevalence of drones we might start seeing a shift from where air power is no longer the deciding factor in conflicts.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 13 Jun 2022 22:33

WION
@WIONews

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict shows no signs of easing and now reportedly, Russia might be gaining strong footholds in Severodonetsk. Russian forces have blown up a key bridge.

https://twitter.com/WIONews/status/1536188904390283265

John · Post by **John** » 14 Jun 2022 02:18

This is good lesson in why you shouldn’t be posting tiktok/telegram vids or video journalism of front line equipment in modern age of drones and commercial Sat.

Both sides seem to be making this mistake, Russian posted this vid in telegram, later we see vid of 3 Uragan launchers hit what appear to be by artillery? (waiting on confirmation they are the same but Geolocaters have noted the locs are very close by). Time stamps for tweets may be out of order but first video was posted almost a day ago and second vid released today.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1536 ... MVr4OvmzSw

https://twitter.com/runa13131313/status ... MVr4OvmzSw

On Ukrainian side reportedly troop movement was posted in Severodonetsk couple days ago which Russians took advantage of.

https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/ ... MVr4OvmzSw

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 14 Jun 2022 08:54

Aldonkar wrote:
A comment on the poor performance of Kuwaiti and Saudi forces. I believe their poor performance is due to the fact that their commanders are not selected on merit but by nepotism. If you are related to the ruling family you are given a commission in the Armed Forces. An able commoner does not have a chance.

IA colleague at work, who was ex Army, recounted a course he attended at Sandhurst where there was a Saudi Army candidate. He was so hopeless he failed all the physical exercise tests. He was a Saudi Prince.

Yes. IAF friends who trained Iraqis said the same thing about their officers. Officers who rose were Sunni's from Tikrit (Saddam's home town) or his
clan. Same with most of the GCC. Only Oman had some amount of merit based evaluation.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 14 Jun 2022 09:02

John wrote: I know Brar isn’t here but I wouldn’t say US infantry division wasn’t inadequate in Afghanistan, US casualties had declined a lot in last years of conflict ( less than 100 last 5 years). It is just Afghanistan was no longer a priority for US and Afghans in general have very high resentment for authority and tribal nature (see Pakistan tribal areas) which would require a consistent presence which is topic for another day.

I think we are making the same point. The US role in Afghanistan was to stabilize the country by holding ground. They (and rest of ISAF) had inadequate boots on the ground for that. The bulk of the fighting was over in 2014, by which time the US led coalition decided it could not defeat the Taliban and therefore reduced both their role and presence, which meant low casualties. The Taliban was quite content not to engage US forces directly, but bide their time, while dominating the countryside and undermining the Afghan Govt's ability to rule.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 14 Jun 2022 16:17

Deans wrote:……….. The Taliban was quite content not to engage US forces directly, but bide their time, while dominating the countryside and undermining the Afghan Govt's ability to rule.

OT but couldn’t resist adding that hence the phrase from that region “you have the watches, we have the time”

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 14 Jun 2022 16:45

vijayk wrote:
WION
@WIONews

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict shows no signs of easing and now reportedly, Russia might be gaining strong footholds in Severodonetsk. Russian forces have blown up a key bridge.
https://twitter.com/WIONews/status/1536188904390283265

UAF blew up the bridge, not RF! This is to delay Russian advance and gain time for reinforcements in Lysychansk

Ever since the start of this conflict, WIONews has become a Biden mouth-piece!

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 14 Jun 2022 18:33

JTull wrote:
vijayk wrote: https://twitter.com/WIONews/status/1536188904390283265
UAF blew up the bridge, not RF! This is to delay Russian advance and gain time for reinforcements in Lysychansk

Ever since the start of this conflict, WIONews has become a Biden mouth-piece!

Ukies blew up the bridge with their men on the wrong side (in Sverodonetsk, trying to cross the river to Lichansk). They also did that at
Syvatohorsk (pocket north of Slavyansk). Not exactly good for morale.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 14 Jun 2022 19:36

Russia seems to have finally perfected tactics that play to it's strengths and are helped in no small measure with the smaller territorial targets that it has set for itself i.e. complete capture of eastern Ukraine only. It has come down to massive artillery barrages to bombard an area, reduce it to a moonscape and then move in and occupy it. Progress is slow but the Ukranians at the receiving end of this artillery barrage suffer casualties and are demoralized. Some estimates are that the difference in firepower is stark with Russia firing upto 50,000-60,000 artillery shells and MLRS every day compared to 4000-5000 for Ukraine. A Ukranian source has said that Russia could maintain this level of firepower for 1 more year. Now, I do not know if that is an exaggeration by the Ukranians to lobby for more NATO aid or is in fact based on fact. The Ukraine wish list is for 1000 artillery pieces, 300 MLRS and 500 tanks from NATO to enable them re-capture all areas captured by Russia from the start of the current invasion. If the Russian ground forces were facing the threat of significant air attacks from the kind of PGMs NATO has, the artillery and MLRS would have been decimated in short order, but in the absence of direct NATO involvement in the war, Russia is certainly playing to it's strengths now.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 15 Jun 2022 05:38

Ukraine Fears Defeat in East Without Surge in Military Aid
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-fe ... 1655092861
13 June 2022

Russia advances in Donbas region as U.S., allies prepare to discuss new heavy-weapons supplies for Kyiv.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 15 Jun 2022 16:43

ldev wrote: Some estimates are that the difference in firepower is stark with Russia firing upto 50,000-60,000 artillery shells and MLRS every day compared to 4000-5000 for Ukraine. A Ukranian source has said that Russia could maintain this level of firepower for 1 more year.

I suspect Russian consumption of artillery ammo is equal to the rate of production. (It would last 1 year if there was no further production).
A constant reminder to us that we need to be self sufficient military hardware.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 15 Jun 2022 18:53

https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... 7uH9scgdHA ---> CIA establishes "Freedom for Russia Legion" in Ukraine. The group's fighters and commanders consists of anti-Putin and Russian govt figures.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 15 Jun 2022 19:24

Deans wrote:
ldev wrote: Some estimates are that the difference in firepower is stark with Russia firing upto 50,000-60,000 artillery shells and MLRS every day compared to 4000-5000 for Ukraine. A Ukranian source has said that Russia could maintain this level of firepower for 1 more year.
I suspect Russian consumption of artillery ammo is equal to the rate of production. (It would last 1 year if there was no further production).
A constant reminder to us that we need to be self sufficient military hardware.

If production rate = Firing rate, then the ammo supply is perpetual not 1 year.

I guess for 1 year figure, we're assuming reserves are XX% of the consumption & Production rate = (1- XX%) Firing Rate or something...

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 15 Jun 2022 19:35

Rakesh wrote: https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... 7uH9scgdHA ---> CIA establishes "Freedom for Russia Legion" in Ukraine. The group's fighters and commanders consists of anti-Putin and Russian govt figures.

Is this a bad joke.

WTF, is this?

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 15 Jun 2022 21:02

Ukrainians are dying by the thousands and this is the kind of 'assistance' they are getting from the West. It would be funny but it is sad really.

John · Post by **John** » 15 Jun 2022 21:24

Rakesh wrote: https://twitter.com/TheLegateIN/status/ ... 7uH9scgdHA ---> CIA establishes "Freedom for Russia Legion" in Ukraine. The group's fighters and commanders consists of anti-Putin and Russian govt figures.

It wasn’t created by CIA it was created In March 2022 by Russians who where born or Ukrainian descent. See link below.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/153 ... 75AxWF-dDQ

- Commercial drones have performed better than Switchblade.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1536 ... vY-f_yu0HQ

- 2 ex US servicemen have been captured north of Kharkiv not confirmed yet. Waiting for confirmation before posting the link.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 15 Jun 2022 21:44

John wrote:…

- 2 ex US servicemen have been captured north of Kharkiv not confirmed yet. Waiting for confirmation before posting the link.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... es-battle/

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 15 Jun 2022 21:49

YashG wrote:
Deans wrote:
I suspect Russian consumption of artillery ammo is equal to the rate of production. (It would last 1 year if there was no further production).
A constant reminder to us that we need to be self sufficient military hardware.
If production rate = Firing rate, then the ammo supply is perpetual not 1 year.

I guess for 1 year figure, we're assuming reserves are XX% of the consumption & Production rate = (1- XX%) Firing Rate or something...

Russian peacetime production of ammo is a fraction of ordnance factory capacity.
Peak production is designed to supply enough ammo for the entire stock of Russian guns. My sense is that if 20% of the Russian inventory of guns are being used then the peak output of Russian plants will give them ammo in perpetuity.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 16 Jun 2022 01:02

After all the billions that the Biden Administration has poured into Ukraine, why is Ukraine still losing this many number of men every day?

https://twitter.com/PelmeniPusha/status ... v8zk4Q9bwA ---> US intel suggests that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are losing about 100 people per day, and from 100 to 300 wounded. This was stated by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, General Mark Milley.

John · Post by **John** » 16 Jun 2022 02:44

Rakesh wrote:After all the billions that the Biden Administration has poured into Ukraine, why is Ukraine still losing this many number of men every day?

https://twitter.com/PelmeniPusha/status ... v8zk4Q9bwA ---> US intel suggests that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are losing about 100 people per day, and from 100 to 300 wounded. This was stated by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, General Mark Milley.

Rakesh please note that is not right, it was stated in report they are 100-200 casualties which includes wounded. US typically doesn’t report KIA as such. So about 30-50 KIA (1 to 4 wounded to
Killed ratio) which seems about right. Currently Ukrainian KIA is around 10k and those are ones accounted for.

Whoa. Gen. Milley confirms public estimates of 100-200 daily Ukrainian military casualties "are in the ballpark of our actual assessments," declines to offer more specifics for security reasons.

https://twitter.com/pdshinkman/status/1 ... kPFjGmHfsg

Parasu · Post by **Parasu** » 16 Jun 2022 02:52

It has boiled down to small drones, communication jamming and attack by artillery.
Russians claim that they have reduced the time from when a target is spotted by a drone to the time it is hit by artillery to less than 3 minutes.
It is actually plausible. They were at 10 minutes when the war started.
Small cheap drones have become absolutely essential. Donetsk troops were complaining about shortage of recon drones about a week ago and Borisov (deputy PM) said that Russia has all kinds of drones in sufficient numbers.

Hopefully, the powers that be in India are listening.
Cheap drones, in numbers, unjammable and integrated with artillery. Way to go.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 16 Jun 2022 02:58

John wrote:Rakesh please note that is not right, it was stated in report they are 100-200 casualties which includes wounded. US typically doesn’t report KIA as such. So about 30-50 KIA (1 to 4 wounded to killed ratio) which seems about right. Currently Ukrainian KIA is around 10k and those are ones accounted for.

10,000 troops since the conflict started? And those are the one accounted for? John, why is the kill rate even this high? With the billions being poured into Ukraine, what seems to be the hold up?

Is the Ukrainian Army incompetent or are the superior Western weapons not being effectively exploited?

John · Post by **John** » 16 Jun 2022 03:08

Rakesh wrote:
John wrote:Rakesh please note that is not right, it was stated in report they are 100-200 casualties which includes wounded. US typically doesn’t report KIA as such. So about 30-50 KIA (1 to 4 wounded to killed ratio) which seems about right. Currently Ukrainian KIA is around 10k and those are ones accounted for.
10,000 troops since the conflict started? And those are the one accounted for? John, why is the kill rate even this high? With the billions being poured into Ukraine, what seems to be the hold up?

Is the Ukrainian Army incompetent or are the superior Western weapons not being effectively exploited?

Yes that’s what Z aide reported but don’t think it includes Mariupol.

This is high intensity conflict, city fighting and trench warfare so casualties are expected see for example US lost more soldiers in Fallujah than Iraqi invasion as whole. Russian KIA are likely around 20k-40k and that doesn’t even include seperatists who are likely heavily hit.

Also have to keep in mind prior to start of conflict Russians where seen as having better trained army with Ukraine outside of its special forces (trained by NATO) where mostly made up of recruits and TDF. So I suspect lot of casualties where from latter when they were overrun in south and by Kyiv from air strikes. 1 to 2-4 ratio of Ukr to Russians killed might allow Ukraine to hold out unless Russia mobilizes.

While billions (for example hundreds of billions where spent on Afghanistan) have been given still probably need a lot to make up for lack of heavy weapons in Ukrainian side and enormous amount Russia has. What west lacks is cheap artillery and anti aircraft weapons.

Big winner is Eastern Europe arms industry IMO which will now likely get lot of $$$ to spit out ammo for Soviet weapons and also some of cheap infantry weapons.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 16 Jun 2022 03:11

US ex-armymen captured by Russia

Exclusive: US fighters ‘captured’ by Russian forces in Ukraine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... es-battle/

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 16 Jun 2022 03:13

John, the conflict started on Feb 24th. Using the 10,000 KIA to date and with 111 days into the conflict (Feb 24 to date), it is working out to 90+ being killed a day on average. That is crazy.

The Russian figures will be higher, but then again Putin only cares about Putin.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 16 Jun 2022 03:14

Russian missile strike destroys Nato-supplied howitzers in Ukraine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... s-ukraine/

Parasu · Post by **Parasu** » 16 Jun 2022 03:18

"Ukraine suffering up to 1,000 casualties per day in Donbas, official says"
https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/ukrain ... -arakhamia

Parasu · Post by **Parasu** » 16 Jun 2022 03:20

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ping-point
"Any way you count it, the figures are stark: Ukrainian casualties are running at a rate of somewhere between 6oo and 1,000 a day. One presidential adviser, Oleksiy Arestovych, told the Guardian this week it was 150 killed and 800 wounded daily; another, Mykhaylo Podolyak, told the BBC that 100 to 200 Ukrainian troops a day were being killed."

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 16 Jun 2022 03:33

Thank you Parasu-ji. The numbers are even worse than imagined.

John · Post by **John** » 16 Jun 2022 03:59

Lot of casualty figures are thrown around nothing concrete so far only 10k seems to be reliable #. Even one of earlier reports turned out to be mistranslation.

Rakesh wrote:John, the conflict started on Feb 24th. Using the 10,000 KIA to date and with 111 days into the conflict (Feb 24 to date), it is working out to 90+ being killed a day on average. That is crazy.

The Russian figures will be higher, but then again Putin only cares about Putin.

It’s hard to compare current casualty figures as we are seeing high casualty in just small pocket in the east so hits those local fighting units very hard (seen reports of Ukrainian units left with only handful from 50+) where as previously Russian attacks where concentrated all over Ukraine. A good chunk of early casualties also happened as a result of air strikes.

bala · Post by **bala** » 16 Jun 2022 04:16

There are consistent reports of high casualty numbers from the Ukraine side by many reports not just one or two. The numbers are unfortunate but this is war. One thing for sure is that NATO members, US, UK etc cannot tolerate such high counts, the public will be up in rage and politicos will be on shaky ground. Ukr and Rus seem to take such numbers sanguinely and don't seem to be too perturbed. But deaths, affect families, there is a mother for each soldier who died and she will be in deep anguish and pain.

Only way out is negotiated peace for leaders on both sides to hammer out.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 16 Jun 2022 04:53

bala wrote:There are consistent reports of high casualty numbers from the Ukraine side by many reports not just one or two. The numbers are unfortunate but this is war. One thing for sure is that NATO members, US, UK etc cannot tolerate such high counts, the public will be up in rage and politicos will be on shaky ground. Ukr and Rus seem to take such numbers sanguinely and don't seem to be too perturbed. But deaths, affect families, there is a mother for each soldier who died and she will be in deep anguish and pain.

Only way out is negotiated peace for leaders on both sides to hammer out.

maybe 2 months ago a negotiated peace was possible. After the spate of sanctions and the hypocrisy of the western democracies [LOL], the russians will no way negotiate anymore. The news from russian sources is that they now do not care abt what combined west thinks anymore. I mean medvedev of all people calls the western govt '********' and is more jingoist than Putin which is a shocker.

This conflict will go on for many many months until Ukr throws in the towel. my 2 cents is that, Ukr as a state is toast. The Russians now want to show the baltics and esp poland what comes next if they keep barking

Fall is coming soon and already gas is cut by 30% in one pipeline to Germany. When Russian commodity sanctions kick in, the euros are gonna be in for a surprise and will capitulate before you can say zadaroyvya

I have been talking to a lot of ukr and russians in the area and each are very entrenched in their thoughts and this battle is going to go until death. if Poland moves in, I hope everyone has fallout shelters as this could get nasty!!!!..

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 16 Jun 2022 10:11

Deans wrote:[My sense is that if 20% of the Russian inventory of guns are being used then the peak output of Russian plants will give them ammo in perpetuity.

Thats bad news for Ukraine. Perhaps ppl in the know, know about this and realise that men, not ammo will be the rate limiting factor here for russia. For Ukraine it would be both. Now as Russians are fighting, they are trading more ammo with men. Works for them. Ukraine will not have a counter for this - even if they get another 100 Artillery from US. I guess Russians are saving up some missiles for later when deliveries happen.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 16 Jun 2022 10:36

On casaulties, Russian casaulty numbers were high in the beginning with all the convoys being ambushed, bombed etc. Now with long range artillery warfare - Russian should be exhausted but saving up a lot on casualties. I do not see how with long range artillery duel Russians are still loosing equal to Ukrainians. I'm guessing russian casulty numbers now are perhaps 1/5th or 1/3rd at best. I you keep lobbing 10X artillery inaccurately - U would inflict atleast 5X damage or 3X in worst case.

So Russian KIA, Wounded are currently: 30, 160 (5X Scenario) OR 60, 240 (3X Scenario).

Wit this in next 2 weeks, Ukraine will see atleast 15K soldiers lost while russia may see 3-5K soldiers lost. For every week Ukraine will loose upto 5K extra soldiers.

Russian medical supply lines (Supply of material, blood and transport is also better) since Russia is still air-striking railways but not the other way round. So in just 2 months, this war will be over for Ukraine - if the current scenario extends...unless NATO pulls off more.

Parasu · Post by **Parasu** » 16 Jun 2022 11:44

The Ukrainians have no credibility.
They couldn't even accept when they got surrounded in Debaltseve in 2015. When the Russians allowed them to get out of encirclement without weapons, they called it successful retreat.

If these guys are admitting 200 killed daily, the numbers may in fact be many times of this.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 16 Jun 2022 12:48

There are so many ‘official voices’ out of Ukraine that it’s sometimes hard to reconcile information- as in the case of the Ukrainian casualty list where everyone, Zelenskiy on down, had different numbers.

So the below can also be judged accordingly - Podolyak is an advisor to the President’s office in Ukraine and according to him

Being straightforward – to end the war we need heavy weapons parity:

1000 howitzers caliber 155 mm;
300 MLRS;
500 tanks;
2000 armored vehicles;
1000 drones.

Contact Group of Defense Ministers meeting is held in #Brussels on June 15. We are waiting for a decision.

https://twitter.com/podolyak_m/status/1 ... rMBd9eM9Gg

Assuming that the west can deliver over on these, it still
Will take a long time IMO.

Doubt they’re getting that many howitzers or MLRS. Or even tanks. Drones - depends on size I guess, but still high number. IFVs also is high. All in all a large ask.

But it’s useful insight into what UA officials think will get them a victory.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 16 Jun 2022 13:25

If the Ukrainian armed forces received all such weapons that they are asking for. Will they not be giving Russians an incentive to mobilise fully to finally crush Ukraine?

Also, outside of US, does anyone else in NATO has the kind of surplus weapons just for handing over to Ukraine.

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 16 Jun 2022 13:36

Pratyushji,

You are missing the wood for the trees. Most important question is where is the manpower?

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 16 Jun 2022 14:02

Video of Ukr combat tactics of bombing civilian areas. They now have 8 years of experience of doing this. June 13,2022
Killed - 6
Injured : n/a

here is more Ukr bombing of Donetsk region for 2 hrs , June 13-14,2022