Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

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dnivas
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by dnivas »

With regard to combat tactics of Ukr arty , here is a 32 min video from Patrick Lancaster on the ground. This video is interesting because he hears shelling in a certain part of Donetsk and slowly inches towards where the bombs fall. over the course of the first twenty mins it is well established that there is absolutely no military presense, Just a bunch of women and kids and old men living there

Then he goes to 'Ivan's store which someone in the neighborhood tells is on fire. Finds out that there could be potential 3 dead civilians. digs around for a bit and then finds no dead bodies. everyone from the neighborhood breathes a sigh of relief.

He then goes there pokes around and talks to the people there. None of them point to any military in the area and they say that it has been a regukar occurrence that Ukr arty keep shelling covilian areas. Around 27:19 , he talks to a young kid in college who was sleeping in his room when the shell landed on the shop nearby. Video of that instant @ 27:19



After talking to the young kid, the people digging in the debris now find a dead body of a one if the guys whi has been digging arounf for a while. There could potentially be two more bodies but they have not been found. Store owner to dead on Sat June 18,2022

So quick summarisation
a. bombs falls haphazard
b. you can hear the whistle of the bomb but some the shells do not explode. in a span of a min, you hear three shells coming in and only 1 explodes
c. Ukr arty is blind firing into the city, one shell was barely 50 mts from a school.
d. Women in the area some of them still consider themselves Ukrainian but call Zelensky pretty vile words.

Watch it. Maybe it will open some eyes.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

ldev wrote:
Wiki says that in February of this year, prior to the start of the war Ukraine had:

51 Mig 29s which included 8 trainers
32 Su 27s which included 6 trainers
17 SU-25s
12 SU-24s

US intelligence estimates at the end of March were that Ukraine had 56 operational fighters left. However 20 grounded fighters were subsequently brought back into service after spare parts were provided by other countries. No estimate as to how many operational aircraft Ukraine currently has.

Similarly Wiki reports that at the start of the war Ukraine had:

250 S-300P SAM not specified whether systems or launchers, I suspect it is launchers.
89 Kub SAM
72 Buk SAM
100 Tor SAM

This is a substantial number of launchers. I remember reading a while back that Russia claimed that they had destroyed 100 S-300 launchers. If that is correct Ukraine still has a substantial airspace denial capability with the remaining 150 S-300 launchers and the Buk and Tor and Kub launchers they have left. Russian aircraft are not flying over Ukraine simply because they can be shot down by Ukraine air defences which are active on both sides. And hence all flying over Ukraine is done at extremely low altitudes. All the videos linked on twitter etc. show extremely low level flights by both sides because both sides retain capacity to shoot down any high altitude flying by the other. There was a recent tweet of a S-300V system being pushed by Ukraine right into the Donbass area which could in theory enable it shoot down any high flying Russian aircraft on the Russian side of the border. Russia has been unable to establish air superiority over Ukraine because it's SEAD campaign has been less than successful because of lack of ISR, poor Air to Ground modes(poor SAR resolution) in the Irbis E used in the SU-35 for SEAD and lack of PGMs to target moving targets - the Ukraine SAM systems shoot, shut down the radar and scoot. And hence air strikes are restricted to cruise missile fired from ships in the Black Sea or long range VKS bombers from inside Russia besides CAS along the front lines.
Good write up Idev do want to point out on S-300

- Ukraine had 100 S-300 batteries after Cold War, most likely few of them fell into separatists hands. Each S-300 battery has 4 launchers and less than 50% are in operational condition. Of that lot of them were undergoing a much delayed upgrade at the start of the war.
There is actually a drone footage of S-300s hit in one of the upgrade facilities in the east. Ukr might also be using S-300 from Slovakia for parts to help return the inoperable S-300 to front line and also help with upgrade program.

Locals in Odessa report explosions in Snake island and fire originating from the area. The island had atleast 4 Pantsir and 2 Tor system in latest SAT image

https://twitter.com/girkingirkin/status ... BXB3UN8sag
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Rakesh wrote: https://twitter.com/Firezstarter1/statu ... TB7NX3r7wg ---> As a point of comparison, India fired over 250K rounds in the Kargil conflict. Around 5K rounds a day, and 9K during the Tiger Hill assault itself. By that metric, the proposed supply is for around a weeks worth of intense fighting.
Russia is firing approx. 70k heavy artillery rounds per day in the Donbass (close to 100k across all fronts in the Ukraine). I'm not sure India can manage that consumption of artillery over 3 months - over a larger number of artillery regiments that Russia has deployed in Ukraine.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/Russia9May45/status ... xBiURkb53A ---> At least a third of the American M777 howitzers fail after the very first battle. "American M777 field howitzers are unsuitable for long-term use, as they require lengthy repairs after the first shootings," Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Denis Sharapov complained.

Image

Sharapov was appointed as Deputy Defense Minister, Ukraine in April of this year ---> https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/34 ... ister.html
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Rakesh »

^^^ Are the requisite spares and tools not being given to the Ukrainians to maintain these M777 howitzers?

OR

Are these howitzers just not reliable? I really hope it is not the latter. We have the same in the Indian Army.

First instance that I am seeing of US military kit not being up to the mark.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Rakesh »

Ukraine lost up to 50% of its military equipment during hostilities – official
https://tass.com/world/1467843?utm_sour ... google.com
17 June 2022
According to Deputy Defense Minister Vladimir Karpenko, Western arms supplies cover less than 15% of his country's total demand.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by dnivas »

Next steps in escalation. This is quite frankly hilarious. Poland can deem to send weapons but Russia should not destroy them as and when they enter Ukraine. What's got into the world?

NATO should give ultimatum to Russia – Polish general
https://www.rt.com/russia/557494-genera ... ne-strike/
20 June 2022
The bloc should be prepared to introduce ‘anti-missile protection’ over Ukraine to defend its borders and Western weapons supplies, Stanislaw Koziej said
n an interview with the Polish web portal Onet last week, Koziej, who was Poland’s national security chief between 2010 and 2015, said that NATO should protect the military equipment that Western countries are sending to Ukraine.

At the moment, the general said, Russian forces are trying to destroy the weapons by long-range missiles launched from the Black Sea, or with the help of strategic aviation.

This is “not acceptable,” Koziej claims. According to him, the fact that Russia is apparently using dual-purpose missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads gives NATO every reason to take steps to mitigate the risks.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Parasu »

European states have not fought a big land war for decades. The US has experience of maintaining logistics across oceans but not on land.
Also, Russians are attacking road and railway networks. As a result, arms supplies from the West are not reaching the Ukrainian forces. Supplies have to cross almost the entire breadth of Ukraine.
The reason why US and Europe have suddenly become interested in the Odessa blockade (food supply rona-dhona) is because of this. It will be much easier to supply weapons through Odessa (if Turkey is sufficiently pressurised), than what the western countries are achieving through land transport.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Vayutuvan »

Cyrano wrote: DNivas, you make me think of a jirga at your bar, wherever it might be!
"At least we have Paris"
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Recently there was a report that the Russians had destroyed a command center killing some 50+ Ukrainian Generals, etc.

It is said that some of them were known to Russian Generals - supposedly a few were family friends. They were supposed to be classmates before the breakup of the Soviet Union, 30 odd years ago.

If true, it is sad.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

NRao wrote:Recently there was a report that the Russians had destroyed a command center killing some 50+ Ukrainian Generals, etc.

It is said that some of them were known to Russian Generals - supposedly a few were family friends. They were supposed to be classmates before the breakup of the Soviet Union, 30 odd years ago.
If true, it is sad.
Confirmed by Ukrainian sources. 57 killed at the command centre. They were there because Zelensky visited. Apparently, many senior officers
including Generals (not 50 generals). It represented the leadership responsible for shelling of civilians in the Donbass. Russia had said they would retaliate.

OT - India Pak wars had classmates from RIMC on opposing sides. In the 1947-48 war, 2 brothers from Lucknow fought on opposite sides.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Rakesh wrote:^^^ Are the requisite spares and tools not being given to the Ukrainians to maintain these M777 howitzers?

OR

Are these howitzers just not reliable? I really hope it is not the latter. We have the same in the Indian Army.

First instance that I am seeing of US military kit not being up to the mark.
I think its a combination of several things.
It takes time and training to induct a new artillery system. IA regiments handling the M-777 would probably have spend a year on it and all the
men involved are professional artillery men. The Ukrainians have had a couple of weeks training.
There is a lot of support infrastructure and spares which are part of the battery. Not sure if Ukraine has been given that.
The M-777 is a lightweight gun designed for mobility (few rounds on precisely designated targets), not meant for rough handling.
Ukraine is trying to use them as the Russians do, as heavy artillery, but without drones, counter-battery radar (they have them but are either jammed or destroyed), adequate ammo etc.
Finally, the guns came from existing US stocks (2nd hand). The supplying unit would typically have given away their worst guns, as they would
be replaced by new production.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

I think the M777s came from old, perhaps training sets, of the US Army - as opposed to the Marines. I do not think they are being replaced. Besides the ones the US provided did not have the computer device, while the 4 that Canada provided had them.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

How many rounds is an M777 designed to fire in its life time? A lot more than the stock of shells supplied per gun. That means incorrect usage and improper maintenance due to inadequate training and some poor discipline. Free gifts are always treated with less care when more can be expected.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by dnivas »

You can watch some of the mssion profiles of the mercs who end up in Ukraine
Here is the full video of the 2 US mercs

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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Rakesh »

Deans wrote:I think its a combination of several things...
NRao wrote:I think the M777s came from old....
Thank You
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Rakesh »

Ukraine war: Russia says captured US fighters must be ‘held responsible for their crimes’
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia- ... rs-must-be
21 June 2022
* The Kremlin made its first formal acknowledgement that it was holding the men, who have been identified as Andy Huynh and Alexander Drueke.
* A spokesman called them ‘soldiers of fortune’, and said they were not subject to the Geneva Convention.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Pratyush »

The Chechen fighters or the Wagner group are also not subject to Geneva Convention.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Pratyush wrote:The Chechen fighters or the Wagner group are also not subject to Geneva Convention.
Its complicated.
The Chechen fighters are technically members of the Russian national guard and not mercenaries. All are Russian citizens.
There are also Chechen fighters fighting for Ukraine, in 2 Battalions. These have been made part of the Ukrainian army.

The Wagner group are mercenaries. However a significant number are serving or former members of Russia's elite Spetsnaz. They are part of Wagner to give some of their missions deniability (e.g. if some Syrian warlord has to be assassinated). Wagner also has Libyans and Syrians but these are not known to be serving in Ukraine.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

As I noted earlier. SAT images coming from snake island. Waiting for better resolution but those locations with damage and smoke where previous area where SA-15 and Pantsir SAM launcher where located also the lighthouse appears to have collapsed. Attack looks to strike down by drones again than by MRLs.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... S0Qv5n0ITQ
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Footage from Russia caught by Russians who thought it was a Russian drone before it struck the oil refinery, looks like Ukrainians have put together a new UAV to strike deep within Russia. Looks like recent spat of attack on oil rig and snake island could be due to this. This is definitely not a TB2 or Ukr PD1 or PD2 drone. A good lesson on why we should ramp up our domestic UAV industry.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... 7Z7FI31FGA
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

"Place called kubansky island about 40km away from snake island.. m777 were put there to support ydays abortive attack with shells mlrs and tochkas … got spotted and hit looks like from snake island as nothing else is in range"

https://twitter.com/daeroplate_v2/statu ... 87200?s=20
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by bala »

As many as 500 Ukrainian troops from a single brigade were killed in the city of Nikolaev, Russian defense ministry said. The troops belonged to the Ukrainian Army’s 59th Mechanized Brigade, the report said, who it’s believed were taking cover at the Okean Shipyard. The facility is located in the southern part of the Ukrainian city that stands on a major river some 60 kilometers inland from the Black Sea.

Ukrainian sources reported several Russian cruise-missile strikes targeting Nikolaev on Tuesday. These caused damage to port infrastructure, to industrial buildings and to the power grid, and destroyed some trucks, the Ukrainian military said. The City of Mykolaiv hit by 7 missiles, says the region's governor.

Russia also claimed to have routed the 57th Motorized Infantry Brigade. The report claimed that the Ukrainian unit lost over 60% of its strength during fighting for territory claimed by the Moscow-allied Lugansk People’s Republic.


https://www.rt.com/russia/557614-nikola ... an-strike/
Last edited by bala on 23 Jun 2022 00:09, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

Russia nears ‘tactical’ victory in Severodonetsk as villages fall https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... -captured/
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Kati »

As death toll mounts, frustration grows among Ukrainian military families

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/as ... li=BBnb7Kz
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by bala »

108 hours to extinguish fire at oil depot in Dnipropetrovsk region
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/23/7354163/

The Ukrs are reporting:
A fire at an oil depot in the Novomoskovsk district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, caused by a Russian missile strike on 18 June, has been extinguished. Russian attack had claimed the lives of three people, while 14 had suffered burns and injuries. Eight of the injured are in hospital. On 18 June, Russian occupiers launched three cruise missiles at an oil depot in Novomoskovsk district, injuring 13 people and killing one. While extinguishing a fire at the oil depot, a fuel tank exploded, killing one rescuer and hospitalising two others. On 20 June, the body of another casualty was found during rescue work in the burning oil depot.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

IndraD wrote:Russia nears ‘tactical’ victory in Severodonetsk as villages fall https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... -captured/
Russia's stated objective is to demilitarize Ukraine. They intend to do this by destroying the Ukraine army, rather than occupy territory within a
timetable (which would involve losses from urban combat, or assaulting strong defensive positions without preparation).
Ukraine seems to be obliging Russia, by throwing in more reinforcements (of progressively lower quality) to prevent Russian encirclements or cauldrons, when a better option would be to withdraw from exposed salients, to a more defensible line. As long as Ukraine incurs horrendous casualties trying keep supply routes open, the Russians will be content not to close them. The Ukrainian assumption is either that the Russians do not have reserves to throw into the fight (believing their own casualty claims), or that western weapons will arrive in enough numbers to reverse the situation.

Ukraine has also incurred casualties in counter offensives carried out with no artillery preparation or air support.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Parasu »

Ukrainian forces are being guided by Anglo saxons who have their own plans.
No withdrawal from cities under threat of encirclement.
This means industrial plants are often last stands, which get completely destroyed. The war is effectively deindustrialising the most industrialised region of Ukraine.
All civilian casualties are those of pro Russian population of Donbass.
Russia will have a tough time funding reconstruction of these destroyed cities even if it wins.
The larger the number of casualties, the deeper the ensuing hostility.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Atmavik »

Looks like lysychansk is close to being encircled.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by YashG »

Atmavik wrote:Looks like lysychansk is close to being encircled.
Zolote and Hirsk have been encircled as per rybar. 500 Odd troops maybe stuck in Zolote.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Atmavik wrote:Looks like lysychansk is close to being encircled.
WarLord, on Twitter, responding to Institute of the Study of War, stated that the Russians have entered, IIRC, the southern portion of Lysychansk.

That was about 5 hours ago
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Fight your enemy where he is strongest is a strategy adopted only when optics are more important than victories.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by YashG »

Cyrano wrote:Fight your enemy where he is strongest is a strategy adopted only when optics are more important than victories.
pl elaborate.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Pratyush »

He is referring to what is happening to Ukraine. Referring to how art of war suggests wars be fought. But is not being fought by Ukraine.

The fighting should be taking place on Ukraine's terms. But is actually taking place on Russian terms.

But because of woke madness, Ukraine is being encouraged to fight to the last Ukrainian. That too on Russian terms.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Titles, on CNN, are as misleading as Elensky.

Russia is on the verge of taking a key Ukrainian city, but bigger battles await
Now the battle moves across the Siverskiy Donets river to Lysychansk, the last city in Luhansk held by Ukrainian forces. And there are already signs that the Russians will use the same merciless tactic of area bombardment to grind down Ukrainian forces, deploying combat planes, multiple launch rocket systems and even short-range ballistic missiles such as the Tochka-U.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

NRao wrote:
Atmavik wrote:Looks like lysychansk is close to being encircled.
WarLord, on Twitter, responding to Institute of the Study of War, stated that the Russians have entered, IIRC, the southern portion of Lysychansk.

That was about 5 hours ago
Western media (India to some extent) is focused on capture of cities. Failure to capture a city is seen as lack of progress.
Russian media reports mostly on destruction of enemy forces - capture of a city is a result of that.

Russia is fairly clear that they do not have the infantry or the intention, of getting into urban combat - especially when the people in the Donbass
are largely pro Russia and the destroyed cities have to be rebuilt by Russia.
I think Ukraine is getting carried away by Western benchmarks of success and trying to hold on to cities, or prevent encirclements by throwing in
more troops. Those new troops are just getting chewed up by Russian artillery.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by ldev »

https://www.facebook.com/pablitomoiseev ... xODY1Njg1/

First videos of the M142 HIMARS in action in Ukraine. The Extended Range M-31 MLRS munitions that the US is providing have a range 80 km vs 40 km for M-777 shells.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by YashG »

Deans wrote:
NRao wrote:
WarLord, on Twitter, responding to Institute of the Study of War, stated that the Russians have entered, IIRC, the southern portion of Lysychansk.

That was about 5 hours ago
Western media (India to some extent) is focused on capture of cities. Failure to capture a city is seen as lack of progress.
Russian media reports mostly on destruction of enemy forces - capture of a city is a result of that.

Russia is fairly clear that they do not have the infantry or the intention, of getting into urban combat - especially when the people in the Donbass
are largely pro Russia and the destroyed cities have to be rebuilt by Russia.
I think Ukraine is getting carried away by Western benchmarks of success and trying to hold on to cities, or prevent encirclements by throwing in
more troops. Those new troops are just getting chewed up by Russian artillery.
While russia chewing up Ukrainian forces has happened but there a silent development in last week that we're not reading well.


1. There was a buildup of bad news - casaulties etc. till the euro-leaders visited kiev. Suddenly those news of 100-200 dying have disaapeared.
2. The news reports of european solidarity breaking up - statements by macron on dialing down western support or diplomacy have also dissapeared instead replaced by statements of support till eternity
3. British intelligence reports suggest that Russia will run out of ammunitions in 2-3 months

I'm assuming #2 has happened because european leaders have been given a reason to stay put - is that reason #3 or something else I dont know.

But there is a resumed western solidarity and something triggered it - intel or something else.

#1 was happening purely as a buildup and I dont any longer see Ukrainians dyings as per news. They suddenly stopped dying once euroleaders came to Kiev. Funny.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Lots of info black out and disinformation in western MSM. After Macron, Scholz, Draghi went to Kiev to knock some sense into elensly, BoJo landed there in 24hrs and smashed elensly's balls so hard with thick books that elensly and Ukra-een are back to crying give us more weapons and we'll defeat Russia till the last ukr standing line. Any numbers of casualties doesn't matter. Putin's meat grinder is running non-stop.

US, EU, UK military officials have started saying we need 5 - 10 years to replenish the stocks supplied to Ukra-een. Bollocks l'd say.

The west is getting ready for plan B - expecting Ukra-een to resist until Russian arms and ammo stockpiles have dwindled and then expand the war across NATO periphery over Finland, Baltic republics, Moldova...or even Georgia.
This winter as Europeans freeze to death, they will find the needed causus belli and popular support to attack Russia directly.
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