Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

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Deans
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

I think what Russia is doing is sensible and better than the Ukraine's plan of mobilizing 1 million men (and women).
Russia is not officially mobilizing (which will mean conscripting all eligible people). Instead it is offering former conscripts the chance to enlist
as contract soldiers at about 5 times the pay of a conscript (and higher than the average factory worker).

Russia has 260,000 conscripts a year, or 1.3 million in the last 5 years (which is the recruitable population).
Some are already in paramilitary forces, or vital jobs, or finishing college, so the pool is about 1 million.
If 25% of these opt for the scheme you have 250000 fresh men. After refresher training, they can be deployed. This will ensure:

- Replacement of all losses ( IMO approx 60k irrecoverable losses to date)
- 5 fresh divisions in the Ukraine (60 k men)
- Support functions in Ukraine (logistics, engineering, repair workshops, military police etc) 25k men.
- 5 `B' category divisions of 60k men inside Russia. Some of these might defend the Russia-Ukraine border at Kharkov-Sumy, to prevent attacks
inside Russia and pin Ukrainian forces.
- Air force support, Air defense, weapon testing (weapons in storage have to be quality tested and repaired before combat), logistics &
other support functions inside Russia - 25k
That leaves 20,000 men available as a reserve.

In the meantime, the current batch of 130,000 conscripts finish their service and are available as contract soldiers if they sign up.

The problem with the scheme is that is attracts people who are less qualified and might remain unemployed. Lack of `spirit of the paltan' and an experienced NCO/JCO cadre is partly addressed by people of the same district serving together and contract officers/ NCOs also being recruited.
Russian regional governors probably have recruitment targets and some will hard-sell.

Russia seems to have replaced its losses and some fresh units are being inducted. For e.g. Russia started the battle of the Donbass in April with
93 BTGs. They now have 105 (the Austrian Colonel's presentation posted earlier). A third of the units have gone back to Russia for rest and refit and presumably replaced by these new contract soldiers.
NRao
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

A few weeks ago, RUSI had made this very point.

Is the west running out of ammunition to supply Ukraine?

The West is struggling to keep Ukraine supplied.

BTW, the article claims that the US has supplied 1/3rd of its stock of 20,000 to 25,000 missiles. IF it is actually "missiles" as opposed to "rockets" that is a lot of hurt: they have a range of 300 kms and are precision munition. However, that is one missile per shot, the 6 tubes per pod is no longer in play.

However, the "running out of ammunition" refers to the inability in the West to replenish the stocks sent to Ukraine.
Mukesh.Kumar
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Mukesh.Kumar »

X-Posting from Social Media Watch Threat. A different perspective to analyzing how the RUS_UKR war panned out on social media channels.
Mukesh.Kumar wrote:Science Project Alert.

Meta Data Analysis of Telegram Channels to understand how the RUS-UKR conflict has been panning out.
Been following the RUS-UKR conflict from afar. With work being hectic and amid the confusion of battle and my limited understanding of military affairs, I have been unable to understand what exactly has been happening. With free time on my hand over the last long weekend, did an experiment of sorts trying to understand from the flow of information put out by two TG groups, on what's been happening.

Without going into individual data, but trying to pinpoint weeks of hectic activity, tried to understand the peaks, throughs, and IMVHO the moment went UKR realized that the have lost the game.

Sharing here. Maybe can come in handy when we try and analyze how information is being used in India. A starting point maybe.
The key investigation was how Meta data correlates to actual happenings on ground. Intel Slava is a Russian news Aggregator with over 400K followers and is supposed to be funded by Putin, Russian ministry of defence, FSB, GRU and SVR. Ukraine Today is a smaller channel with about 31K followers. Funding is unclear but seems to have sprung up spontaneously on people's inititiative. Maybe posters are ordinary people or sleected people.

Both groups have been popular among expatriate populations of both countries.

While chats, videos and photo's are all present, extracting post information from videos on Ukraine Today was difficult. Hence posting of photo's have been used to measure the intensity of information being put out.

Intel Slave has been around for longer and their post history is given below:
Image

Since the war started, the activity has increased. Plotted together there are startling patterns on the absolute number of photo posts done:

Almost as if each group has been fighting the social war in tango. One leads, another slows down. Till the point when the UKR group kind of goes silent around 10th June 2022.
Image

Plotted as %age of activity during this time, since the resources in each group are different, the graph is starker.

Image

Period Group in Ascendant Events in Real World
  1. Week 10 to Week 11 (27th Feb to 12th Mar) UKR Fully 1/6th of all UKR posts in this 20 week period done here. This is the phase when the invasion started, and Social Media was replete with examples of a tractor driver stealing a BMP, a 'бабушка' giving laxatives to RUS Soldiers. High enthusiasm cheering posts.
    2nd Mar is interesting. For first time UKR claimed to have gone on offensive in Horilivka. Kharkiv paratrooper attack. Kherson captured by RUS. It's almost as if UKR was cheering on their troop attacks
    7th and 8th Mar- Again Interesting as UKR side continued to pump out photos. Mariupol evacuation
  2. Week 13 to 14: 20th Mar to 2nd Apr RUS UKR groups tend to become silent. Specially after 28 Mar. Talks happening in Istanbul. RUS is de-escalation around Kyiv and Chernihiv to focus around Donbass
  3. Week 15 end through Week 18 (3 Apr to 30 Apr) UKR+ RUS 15% of UKR posts. In Week 15, it's concetrated around Bucha massacre, but otherwise a quiet week.
    Things start heating up from Week 16 (13 to 15 Apr) Moskva sunk. It's as if the UKR side has come back to life and there is a fightback from RUS groups
    Week 17 (17 Apr to 24 Apr)- Donbass offensive and Mariupol is taken by RUS. UKR starts to flag, and increased activty in RUS Groups
    Week 18 (24 to 30 Apr)- Azovstal Steelworks attacked. UKR groups posting on visit of Blinken and Austin Llyod. Kherson occupation and instructions to use Roubles.
    It is this phase which seems that the war had reached it's climax as both groups posted voluminously in this phase after the first lull following the invasion
  4. Week 19 to 21 (1 May to 21 May) UKR+ RUS Relative lull. In Week 20, UKR groups grow very silent. RUS claims hitting NATO supplied arms depots, UKR withdrawal from around Kharkiv.
  5. Week 23 (29 May to 4 Jun) UKR Probably the busiest week in UKR groups. Close to 15% of posts made in this week.
    UKR claims that RUS has suffered high casualties in the Battle of Sievierodonetsk for connecting road between Lysychansk-Bakhmut. Zelensky visits Kharkiv for first time since war started.
    Information of delivery of M142 HIMARS and the US Cyber Com acting on behalf of UKR against RUS targets
  6. Week 25 (12 Jun onwards) RUS UKR groups fall almost silent. As if deep down this public group has given up. Reflecting a realization of what is actually happening on the field. In my opinion, it is here that UKR actually lost the will to fight.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Massive hit in Nova Kakhovk. Russian telegram reports state 50 fuel tucks and countless Smerch missiles where stored in location.
This is newly setup base by power plant but locals have been sharing pics of troop movement and base likely helping with targeting.

https://twitter.com/jimmysecuk/status/1 ... hWED59brbw
https://twitter.com/markrid89403375/sta ... hWED59brbw
https://twitter.com/intelcrab/status/15 ... hWED59brbw
ldev
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by ldev »

Igor Girkin reacts to the strike on Nova Kakhovk^^. There are some suggestions that the Ukranians in targeting these ammunition dumps are launching a combination of Grads, Tochkas and then finishing off with the precision Himars making it virtually impossible for the Russians to intercept the salvo.

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/15 ... Xhy_YqAAAA

Image

Image
NRao
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Russians were always concerned about HIMARS. At least as far back as early June - should be way back: From Tass

It is vital for Russian troops to wipe out West-supplied rocket launchers, says expert
NRao
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Meanwhile, on the other foot:

https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1 ... 6376753152
The #LPR Forces have received #Tochka-U missile launchers presumably from Russian stocks
https://twitter.com/Cyberspec1/status/1 ... 5738948608
Iran is preparing to rapidly transfer 100s of military UAVs to Russia and train Rus operators on its territory
A spokesman for the White House National Security Council clarified to CNN that the info Sullivan told reporters was based on recently declassified intelligence.





The other aspect that would be of concern is the "1 million" army that Ukraine is supposedly raising and being trained in the UK, Germany, etc. Ukraine had the best trained army prior to Feb, most of them are gone, so I do not know what this new army would do, outside of the numbers. Sept is the due date - from various sources.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Kyle Anzalone, of antiwar.com, is reporting that Ukraine promised NOT to use the HIMARS to target anything within Russia itself. However, the UK gave Ukraine the M270, which uses the same rockets used in the HIMARS, BUT - per Kyle - the UK did NOT ask/get any assurance from Ukraine that they will not use the M270 to target Russian territories. He went on to state that 1) The UK def min is OK with targeting Russian territory, and 2) someone has targeted Russian assets within Russia.

Kyle claims, I cannot find any ref, that the US Congress is trying to pass a bill to declare Russia a terrorist state !!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

https://twitter.com/middleeasttime/stat ... 0695873540
Abrams went to #Ukraine: the #Lithuanian army sent M2 Bradley and M1A2 Abrams to Ukraine.

[embedded video]
Karan M
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Karan M »

John wrote:Unf for Russia export sales of Flanker variant meant very little effort was spent on developing a stealth AC or even a sophisticated jamming system (see Spectra).
This kind of off the cuff, poorly researched statements unfortunately detracts from the quality of the forum. Do you realize the Spectra is merely a self-defense suite in the higher bands and cannot be used against IADS despite fanciful claims to the contrary? Please don't give us the fanciful statements of disappearing from Libyan radars etc. The fact that Spectra is but a glorified SPJ is why the IAF has asked for additional low band jammers and a towed decoy set-up for protection against SAMs. And the Russians have very sophisticated jammers. Their SAP-518, SAP-14, and the entire EW package, part of the Khibiny family are nothing to dismiss either.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Karan M wrote:
John wrote:Unf for Russia export sales of Flanker variant meant very little effort was spent on developing a stealth AC or even a sophisticated jamming system (see Spectra).
This kind of off the cuff, poorly researched statements unfortunately detracts from the quality of the forum. Do you realize the Spectra is merely a self-defense suite in the higher bands and cannot be used against IADS despite fanciful claims to the contrary? Please don't give us the fanciful statements of disappearing from Libyan radars etc. The fact that Spectra is but a glorified SPJ is why the IAF has asked for additional low band jammers and a towed decoy set-up for protection against SAMs. And the Russians have very sophisticated jammers. Their SAP-518, SAP-14, and the entire EW package, part of the Khibiny family are nothing to dismiss either.
Yes Spectra is Def defense suite and please cite your sources on Spectra. SAP-518 is quite dated and known to interfere with other sub systems and the pod itself is very heavy and greatly affects Flanker flight performance. One of problems with Russian jammers is they generate so much power that it makes the platform itself a target. Do no want to derail this thread but we can take this to Flanker discussion thread if you want to talk more.
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Post by ldev »

NRao wrote:Kyle Anzalone, of antiwar.com, is reporting that Ukraine promised NOT to use the HIMARS to target anything within Russia itself. However, the UK gave Ukraine the M270, which uses the same rockets used in the HIMARS, BUT - per Kyle - the UK did NOT ask/get any assurance from Ukraine that they will not use the M270 to target Russian territories. He went on to state that 1) The UK def min is OK with targeting Russian territory, and 2) someone has targeted Russian assets within Russia.

Kyle claims, I cannot find any ref, that the US Congress is trying to pass a bill to declare Russia a terrorist state !!!!!!!!!!!!!
While technically the M-31 rockets which is one of the munitions used by both the Himars (M142) and M270 at it's maximum range of ~80 km can target Russia itself, that is only possible in sectors where the Ukranian positions are within that range e.g. Kharkov/Kharkiv. In the Donbass and in the south, the depth of Russian occupied territory in Ukraine is greater than the maximum range of Himars munitions currently supplied. The recent attack on Belgorod was not done by Himars but by Tochkas. If the US does decide to supply the MGM140 ATACMS missile with a range of ~300 km, then yes, Ukraine will be able to easily interdict targets within Russia. One of the highest value targets being discussed is the Kerch Straits bridge, built at a cost of 3.5 billion dollars and which is used to reinforce Russian positions in the south via Crimea. The Russians are very worried about a Ukranian attack on the bridge and recently towed barges with radar reflectors and smoke generators near the bridge as a potential defence against an attack by Ukraine. But no weapon currently in the Ukranian inventory has the range to target that bridge from Ukraine itself, not unless a salvo of Harpoons is launched from the sea. However if the 300 km ATACMS is supplied then Himars or M270 will be able to target the bridge from Ukranian held territory. And since the US does not recognize Crimea as part of Russia, but as part of Ukraine, the bridge is regarded as a legitimate target within Ukranian territory.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Karan M »

John wrote:
Karan M wrote:This kind of off the cuff, poorly researched statements unfortunately detracts from the quality of the forum. Do you realize the Spectra is merely a self-defense suite in the higher bands and cannot be used against IADS despite fanciful claims to the contrary? Please don't give us the fanciful statements of disappearing from Libyan radars etc. The fact that Spectra is but a glorified SPJ is why the IAF has asked for additional low band jammers and a towed decoy set-up for protection against SAMs. And the Russians have very sophisticated jammers. Their SAP-518, SAP-14, and the entire EW package, part of the Khibiny family are nothing to dismiss either.
Yes Spectra is Def defense suite and please cite your sources on Spectra.
So I have to cite my sources and explain the very things you should have known yourself before you made such claims? Please first figure out what a SPJ does. The SP - exists for a reason, its self protection. Next, look at the bands it functions on, after that, go check the bands typical ground based surveillance and fire control radars function on. Then after that, go look at the power profiles these radars have. Then you will realize how *totally mistaken* your implied claims that Spectra is something sophisticated that would allow it to jam an IADS, are. It cannot, as it does not even operate on those bands most surveillance radar operate on, and nor does it have the power profile to do so, for high power FCRs. A S-4XX class system would defeat it. The Spectra is designed to fight other aircraft's FCRs. If it comes across a lightweight GBAD, sure, it will have some success. But it wasn't meant for it. All the fancy claims of in-phase cancellation etc are all internet hearsay. Its a competent SPJ, that's it.
John wrote:SAP-518 is quite dated and known to interfere with other sub systems
Can you please explain on what grounds SAP-518 is "quite dated"? Can you please specify which modes it has, and what makes it dated?
Next your other mistaken statement it is known to interfere with other sub-systems. Perhaps it hasn't struck you that the SAP-518 was designed as part of a Russian EW suite, with an all Russian RWR, SPJ and radar complex. India chose to add the SAP-518 to its own customized fit. If the RWR doesn't auto-cue the SAP-518, that's on us, because we don't want to share our critical EW data with the Russians and vice versa. These are IP control issues common across the world, the same reason why the Australians had to ditch their homegrown RWR and revert to a US one on their F/A-18s when they realized they couldn't get what they wanted. We are choosing to continue on our own path and add our own ASPJ. The SAP-518 can still be operated in manual mode (heck even auto-cue may have been enabled and we won't talk about it for obvious reasons) and there is no question of interference, due to the presence of specific avionics which exist in the Su-30 for this specific purpose. Again, if you knew the topic, you'd know this.
John wrote:and the pod itself is very heavy and greatly affects Flanker flight performance.
Of course it's heavy! When you want to put out the kind of offensive jamming performance the SAP-518 does, you don't get it cheap. There are trade-offs. Do you think the pods festooned on the F/A-18 Growler don't affect its flight performance? The IAF is well within its rights to ask for a lighter, less performant system, but that too will come with tradeoffs. Very doubtful it will have the power-aperture performance of a SAP class system. And the SAP uses it to mask the RCS of the Flanker and still go after opponent units.
John wrote:One of problems with Russian jammers is they generate so much power that it makes the platform itself a target. Do no want to derail this thread but we can take this to Flanker discussion thread if you want to talk more.
There is no need to take this discussion elsewhere and clutter up that thread, as you have made it clear in this sentence itself that you have completely misunderstood the topic and are making completely mistaken claims. Unfortunately, you are quoting, rather paraphrasing, a widely discredited and comical report by Reuben Johnson which has been confidently cited ad nauseam and lead to this mistaken assumption.

Whereas the world over, EW specialists are involved in extracting more and more power from their jamming systems. Do you know how powerful the systems on the Growler are? Do you think they make the F/A-18 E/F a target and should hence compromise on the power received at the aperture of the target system? In fact, they and every SPJ manufacturer are doing all they can, to both add high power & additional modes to their SPJs, because of the proliferation of high power FCRs. Something the Russians anticipated long back and were prepared for with the SAP-518 and the SAP-14.

Please understand the concepts involved - irrespective of the modes, there is a definite requirement for high power at the jamming end, which has only been increasing! The SPJs that would function against a MSA on a medium fighter can no longer fight against a F-15 class modern FCR. That's why SPJs have been getting more and more powerful. They aren't reducing their power output - on the contrary, they've been adding to it.

Take a look at the Tejas SPJ we had planned. And what we added on the MiG-29 and what we are planning for the Su-30. We aren't reducing the power output - in fact, we needed more so we spent a ton of resources and effort in achieving what the Russians achieved with their inhouse systems ages ago. Think as they do. They have a formation with a bunch of Flankers. Several carry SAP-518s. Several don't. The ones that do are going to go after the opponents, while the other's retain the freedom to maneuver without any performance trade-offs. Otherwise, you accept the EW side performance trade-off that still allows your opponent significant leeway and you tailor your tactics accordingly. That's your choice to make.

It is this constant hunger for power and electrical complexity which is what makes stealth such a KISS approach to warfighting. You reduce the need for power hungry SPJs by reducing the RCS of your own profile and hence no longer need to fight the opponent with a SPJ, and even if you do, you can make do with a smaller SPJ. But that only functions with significant aero compromises and stealth costs baked into the platform. No free lunches anywhere. Now the advent of higher power radars means the stealth fighters too need EW support, ergo the Growler.
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Re:

Post by NRao »

ldev wrote:
While technically the M-31 rockets which is one of the munitions used by both the Himars (M142) and M270 at it's maximum range of ~80 km can target Russia itself, that is only possible in sectors where the Ukranian positions are within that range e.g. Kharkov/Kharkiv. .............
I agree with your arguments.

However, I am still trying to ascertain what did the UK send to Ukraine. IF what Kyle is stating is true, that the UK made a separate deal than the US AND the UK did not extract any assurances from the Ukrainians on targeting Russian territory AND the UK Def Min is for targeting Russian territory, then it is very likely the Brits have supplied the longer range precision missiles (as opposed to the M31 rockets). Need some proof of that though.

We do know someone hit a target within Russia - how, and who is TBD.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »


So I have to cite my sources and explain the very things you should have known yourself before you made such claims? Please first figure out what a SPJ does. The SP - exists for a reason, its self protection. Next, look at the bands it functions on, after that, go check the bands typical ground based surveillance and fire control radars function on.
Here is sources, Please share your supposed sources in Spectra.

https://www.livefistdefence.com/how-a-s ... -su-30mki/

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... novate?amp

As idev noted earlier the few time Russians attempted to run SEAD with Su-35 it didn't turn out to well. It indicates the Khibiny pods combed with kh-31 might not be able to perform it's task, so we can only able to speculate as to why they have not been able to counter S-300V or Buk. Both of these have been countered in other encounters by USAF and IDF which lead us to question what's going wrong with RusAF SEAD op.
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Post by ldev »

NRao wrote:
I agree with your arguments.

However, I am still trying to ascertain what did the UK send to Ukraine. IF what Kyle is stating is true, that the UK made a separate deal than the US AND the UK did not extract any assurances from the Ukrainians on targeting Russian territory AND the UK Def Min is for targeting Russian territory, then it is very likely the Brits have supplied the longer range precision missiles (as opposed to the M31 rockets). [Need some proof of that though.

We do know someone hit a target within Russia - how, and who is TBD.
BBC report from early June on the UK supply of M270 MLRS systems to Ukraine.

Ukraine war: UK to send Ukraine M270 multiple-launch rocket systems
Last week, Washington said it would supply four HIMARS multiple rocket launchers to Ukraine - following receipt of guarantees they would be used for defensive purposes only and not to strike targets inside Russia. The same restriction applies to the use of the UK's M270 system.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Russian analysis on telegram have noted that Ukr are mixing up MLRS strikes and strikes themselves are mix of Ukrainian Smerch/Uragan/Vikhil rockets with HIMARS and Tochka missiles. Russian SAM system seem to struggle as per their analysis when dealing with different targets (not sure if this make sense to me). This indicates they held off on using their local MLRS still now to maximize their effectiveness with HIMARS.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Thanks @ldev. I never visit BBC. Besides that news item is nearly 6 weeks old. But, good catch.

____________________

Today, on The Duran, Alexander Mercouris claimed that he had got an email from a retired Indian Army officer, who claimed that the HIMARS were being "aimed" (I guess he meant some aspects were operated) by the US!!!! Besides the expected impacts if true, Dima (of Military Summary - I believe it is a Ukrainian outfit) said that he was not aware of any American being involved in the operations, but that he was aware that the Americans do have boots on the ground keeping an eye on each and every unit supplied to Ukraine (I think he meant only the HIMARS, not every M777) - so that none of them fell in the hands of the Russians.

Dima also mentioned that the HIMARS were having impact, but nothing too much yet. However, IF the supply of ~6000 rockets (or missiles as I suspect) are true, then the HIMARS would, for the Russians, would become a major system to be hunted with urgency.

______________________

Just a couple of observations from my end:

* Russian investments in "drones" seem to be pathetic. I did not pay much attention to the news that the Russians buying some 100 drones (that are supposedly duplicates of US drones!!!) from Iran too seriously, but I think I should

* Secondly, based on a few random reports I think the Russians have no real "network centric" capability. They are supposed to have some great sensors - not surprised. But, what good are sensors without great networks? Granted networks do not work all the time - but in a war situation what does?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

for what it is worth (to me not much):

https://twitter.com/cpimentel986/status ... 4256403457
RuAF sources, with attendant video, allege and can corroborate the capture of a US manufacture M777 155mm artillery piece, though I know not if it remains functional.

embedded video
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

NRao wrote:for what it is worth (to me not much):

https://twitter.com/cpimentel986/status ... 4256403457
RuAF sources, with attendant video, allege and can corroborate the capture of a US manufacture M777 155mm artillery piece, though I know not if it remains functional.

embedded video
Mute point is artillery is definitely a few Km's behind the front line, for Rus to capture they must have taken some more territory from Ukraine.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

I know lot is made on supposed western Intel helping Ukraine find these depots but looks like some of depots that where hit apparently where shared in Russian and seperatist telegram channels. Most often with geocoding information not even scrapped allowing them to easily be located. An important lesson on use of social media by military personnel.

Here is video shared in telegram channels apparently which helped locate warehouse for Nova Kakhovka hit

https://twitter.com/na_intel/status/154 ... e3AgJvGiUA
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

John wrote:I know lot is made on supposed western Intel helping Ukraine find these depots but looks like some of depots that where hit apparently where shared in Russian and seperatist telegram channels. Most often with geocoding information not even scrapped allowing them to easily be located. An important lesson on use of social media by military personnel.

Here is video shared in telegram channels apparently which helped locate warehouse for Nova Kakhovka hit

https://twitter.com/na_intel/status/154 ... e3AgJvGiUA
On either side, all it will take is someone with a cellphone, to inform on the location of a weapons depot, or artillery battery. The cellphone network is intact because it is needed for regular life and both sides (the LPR/DPR militia and Ukrainian territorial defense units) do not have enough military radios and need cellphones to communicate. The Russian and Ukrainian speaking population are indistinguishable from each other.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Deans wrote:
John wrote:I know lot is made on supposed western Intel helping Ukraine find these depots but looks like some of depots that where hit apparently where shared in Russian and seperatist telegram channels. Most often with geocoding information not even scrapped allowing them to easily be located. An important lesson on use of social media by military personnel.

Here is video shared in telegram channels apparently which helped locate warehouse for Nova Kakhovka hit

https://twitter.com/na_intel/status/154 ... e3AgJvGiUA
On either side, all it will take is someone with a cellphone, to inform on the location of a weapons depot, or artillery battery. The cellphone network is intact because it is needed for regular life and both sides (the LPR/DPR militia and Ukrainian territorial defense units) do not have enough military radios and need cellphones to communicate. The Russian and Ukrainian speaking population are indistinguishable from each other.
That is one level - sort of or actual HUMINT.

Then there is the level - what we are used to now a days - drones, etc.

However, there is a higher level, which I posted in the US capabilities thread. At this level there are limits within which each side (and "Ukraine" does not exist at this level) will operate - they will accept loss of a depots/lives/whatever, but will not display their EW spectrum. Not happening in this silly conflict.

That said, "western intel help" does not have to mean the states on US, EU, NATO, ...




What has been accepted is that at the start of the conflict both sides - give and take some - were on par. UKR were no slouches. A lot to unpack there.

However, IMO, the next "phase" in this "spectral warfare" is going to be hunting down these HIMARS. BUT, the pain caused by the HIMARS, although great, will not dent the Russians (more about that is the fallout thread).
Cyrano
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Russian forces have captured their first M777 with its combat information system intact. Expecting some himars caputed in the coming days...
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Vids from Russia (RT) during the Hostomel attack from start of war, pretty good insight into their planning and strategy.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1547 ... 68ehgO9fvA
dnivas
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by dnivas »

Pretty good documentary on a serbian sniper who served in DPR region since 2018.
Shows the reality of Ukr attacks on civilians before "Putin" invaded Ukr.
Shows the conflict between a Ukr sniper called 'mariuopol god' and the serbian one 'Deki'
Some of the places are so beautiful.

It's a great 90 mins movie/documentary

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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

I think looking back, it looks like that Ukraine started the Donbas offensive from 15 Feb 22, cornering Putin, who thought his push on Kyiv will make the Ukrainian' a appeal for peace and implementation of Minsk Agreements, rather NATO, USA, Ukrainians and then Russians have all chosen to double down on each of thier positions.

I guess the US, Britain and Ukrainians were convinced the Russians were toothless tigers and would be smashed . And USA would break up Russia the only other country apart from China which has military capability independent from them thus effectively leading to a unipolar world.

For all the talk, Europe "Peaceful" Scandinavian countries, USA keep a lot of military capacity and interference in every country around the world, especially the bad actors within these countries. This pursuit of complete world domination is going to cause a lot of pain.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Aditya_V wrote:I think looking back, it looks like that Ukraine started the Donbas offensive from 15 Feb 22, cornering Putin, who thought his push on Kyiv will make the Ukrainian' a appeal for peace and implementation of Minsk Agreements, rather NATO, USA, Ukrainians and then Russians have all chosen to double down on each of thier positions.

I guess the US, Britain and Ukrainians were convinced the Russians were toothless tigers and would be smashed . And USA would break up Russia the only other country apart from China which has military capability independent from them thus effectively leading to a unipolar world.

For all the talk, Europe "Peaceful" Scandinavian countries, USA keep a lot of military capacity and interference in every country around the world, especially the bad actors within these countries. This pursuit of complete world domination is going to cause a lot of pain.
Looking back, I think the situation in Jan-Feb 22 was similar to Georgia in 2008, where Sakashvilli thought he could seize South Ossetia, despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers, since he had US backing. The different this time, was that Ukraine also anticipated the possibility of Russian intervention and built a strong defensive line over 7 years and trained and equipped the army to NATO standards, with a more firm assurance of massive NATO assistance if there was war.

The Russian thrust towards Kiev in phase 1 assumed at Zelensky was a rational actor, concerned about the welfare of his country. If he had agreed to fairly moderate peace terms that were almost agreed then, his country would have been saved.

I think Ukraine got carried away with the thinking that they defeated Russia in phase 1. They prepared to fight the battle of the Donbass on the assumption that Russia is lose 5X more people in a battle of attrition against strong defenses. Numerically superior Ukrainian forces would
counterattack once Russia runs out of soldiers and ammo and their economy collapses.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Shanmukh »

All the Russian channels (RIA/Tass, etc) are reporting that Seversk is under Russian/LDPR operational control.

https://ria.ru/20220714/seversk-1802344760.html

However, I haven't seen any photographs of Russians doing their little dance in front of the mayor's office ....

What do people think? If Seversk is gone, how long will Slavyansk-Kramatorsk hold up?

BTW, what is happening with the Kherson offensive?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

Seeing some pics on twitter, it seems Russians have captured some M 777 Ammo, interesting some of these state "Rocket Propelled"

Image
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Pratyush »

Checking the shell designation number, M595A1 is a rocket assisted projectile.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

Video of Russian SEAD early in the war

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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by dnivas »

Ukraine tried to push some troops towards Kherson with very familiar result. Long road with three columns of Ukr troops obliterated.

It's a mini road of death, circa Iraq

https://rumble.com/v1c6kgr-ukrainian-tr ... ssian.html
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by bala »

Russian fighter jets down fighter planes in Ukraine operation

https://tass.com/politics/1480497
July 15, 2022
Russian fighter jets shot down two MiG-29 planes of the Ukrainian Air Force in the past 24 hours in the special military operation in Ukraine, Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov reported on Friday. "In the past 24 hours, fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down two MiG-29 planes of the Ukrainian Air Force in the areas of the settlements of Slavyansk and Druzhkovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.

Russian air defense systems also shot down two Su-25 ground attack planes of the Ukrainian Air Force in the Nikolayev Region and nine unmanned aerial vehicles in the Kharkov and Kherson Regions and in the Lugansk People’s Republic, Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov reported. "Russian air defense capabilities shot down two Su-25 planes of the Ukrainian Air Force near the settlement of Barmashovo in the Nikolayev Region and also nine Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the areas of the communities of Balakleya, Izyum, Peschanoye and Ternovaya in the Kharkov Region, Novaya Kakhovka in the Kherson Region and Vesyolaya Tarasovka in the Lugansk People’s Republic," the spokesman said.

"In all, the following targets have been obliterated since the beginning of the special military operation: 253 aircraft, 137 helicopters, 1,543 unmanned aerial vehicles, 355 surface-to-air missile systems, 4,060 tanks and other combat armored vehicles, 746 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,147 field artillery guns and mortars and 4,341 special military motor vehicles," the spokesman said.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »


In all, the following targets have been obliterated since the beginning of the special military operation: 253 aircraft, 137 helicopters, 1,543 unmanned aerial vehicles, 355 surface-to-air missile systems, 4,060 tanks and other combat armored vehicles, 746 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,147 field artillery guns and mortars and 4,341 special military motor vehicles," the spokesman said.
:rotfl: Some how they lost more of everything than they ever operated anyway I would take any of these claims with grain of salt. When it comes to use of ACs for example Both sides have gone to lobbing rockets (even Russians admit they sortie rates have gone down a lot as well) flying low, as a result AC losses have gone down substantially on both sides.

Ukraine had less than 60 operational AC and likely added 40-60 more with addl parts and supplies from Eastern European countries. And also has 40 op helos (Mi-8 and Mi-25/35 which includes 20-30 delivered) . Ukraine AC has more AC and helos operational now than it had at the start of the war as a result.

If you want accurate list of losses check Oryx count as wreckage don’t disappear and should mirror actual losses. Currently Ukraine losses for AC and helos are at 38 and 11.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/a ... n.html?m=1
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Next level. Potential escalation to sats:

https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/15 ... 6422321160
Considering the extent to which commercial imaging satellites have apparently been contracted out to support Ukrainian ops, I'm surprised the Russians haven't shot a couple of them down by now.

Seems quite similar to destroying a merchant ship supporting a belligerent to me.

https://twitter.com/spriteer_774400/sta ... 5941598209
Russia's S-550 system readiness test, nicknamed the killer of satellites

embedded video
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

John wrote:

In all, the following targets have been obliterated since the beginning of the special military operation: 253 aircraft, 137 helicopters, 1,543 unmanned aerial vehicles, 355 surface-to-air missile systems, 4,060 tanks and other combat armored vehicles, 746 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,147 field artillery guns and mortars and 4,341 special military motor vehicles," the spokesman said.
:rotfl: Some how they lost more of everything than they ever operated anyway I would take any of these claims with grain of salt. When it comes to use of ACs for example Both sides have gone to lobbing rockets (even Russians admit they sortie rates have gone down a lot as well) flying low, as a result AC losses have gone down substantially on both sides.
Russia has not moved out of Soviet era propaganda and is scoring an own goal with claims like these. Also the fact that it does not disclose its own casualties, while being very specific (and implausible) over enemy casualties. Ukraine does the same. Russians have learnt to read between the lines of such announcements. For e.g. 355 SAM systems would include MANPADS. 4341 Military vehicles could be accurate, in which case all armored vehicles combined would be a fraction of this number.

What is however accurate about Russian claims, is territory captured, areas in which targets were struck and where fighting in taking place.
Last edited by Deans on 16 Jul 2022 08:34, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

There is an ongoing extraordinary session of the Russian Parliament. They have signed off on laws to place Russian industry on a war footing (i.e. compulsory overtime if required, factories to produce what the state tells them to). Its the biggest sign yet that this is likely to be a long war.

I had posted earlier about voluntary recruitment being done instead of forced mobilization. Pre-war, one would have expected volunteers to be 10% of the available pool, which I assumed would increase to 20-25% when the threat to the country is considered higher. It does not seem to have gone very much higher than 10%
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