Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

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Anoop
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Anoop »



Very interesting discussion on the application of firepower in the Russia-Ukraine war. Particularly the use of ambush-firepower and seek & destroy combination by Ukraine.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

Tanaji wrote:Apparently Ukraine has asked for 300 Leo2/Challenger2/M1 Abrams.

That’s serious firepower. And serious entitledness..
I suspect USA and Germany will send this after spring, no point sending these when the ground is muddy and heavy armor can be picked and 30 years reputation from the Iraq War gets destroyed.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Tanaji »

If the Russians are heavily dig dug in with fortifications especially around Crimea, I assume the Ukrainians want the tanks for that purpose.

From a tactical perspective would they really be able to make significant breakthroughs? Ukranians don’t have air superiority, so pounding the dug in positions is out. Artillery will be used but Russians have it too… they have anti tank weapons as well, wonder how effective they are against western tanks. I would certainly hope they are good enough to cause mobility kills…

So how much will the tanks help? Or is it more of an attempt to get small victories so that the aid keeps flowing?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by mody »

Germans have refused to send any Leopard tanks to Ukraine or allow any other country to send German origin tanks, until the US sends heavy armour to Ukraine. Sending US M1 tanks all the way from the US to Ukraine would be big task. The euros can probably free up about 100-120 tanks in total, if they actually do decide to send the Leopards to Ukraine. They would need to send almost 80% of their ammunition reserves along with the tanks, if they want to see the tanks making serious impact in the conflict.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

mody wrote:Germans have refused to send any Leopard tanks to Ukraine or allow any other country to send German origin tanks, until the US sends heavy armour to Ukraine. Sending US M1 tanks all the way from the US to Ukraine would be big task. The euros can probably free up about 100-120 tanks in total, if they actually do decide to send the Leopards to Ukraine. They would need to send almost 80% of their ammunition reserves along with the tanks, if they want to see the tanks making serious impact in the conflict.
There are US has M1 Abrams in Poland and Romania for exercises, if Patriots, Bradleys, Himars plus Ammo, M777 , M119 , AGM 88, its not too difficult to move Abrams to Ukraine.

Remember M1 Abrams did not have a stelar performance in Urban conflicts in Iraq or when the Saudis used them against the Houthis.

in Muddy ground the Ukraines are bound to loose some on the battlefield, it will not make great pictures for the US MIC. Its like Mig 21 Bison shooting a Block 52 F16 D.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Tanaji »

The M1 uses a gas turbine engine and is more closer to a jet engine. Imagine the maintenance and fuel required to support this beast. Only the US can support these types of logistics.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

Earlier in the the Russians used T 80 variant using Gas Turbine engine. The Ukrainians even captured one in running condition.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Tanaji »

https://www.politico.eu/article/poland- ... af-scholz/

Poland claiming they will send Leos even if Germany refuses. There are 2 things to note:

Poland is talking about 14 tanks, too small to make a difference.
Germany has said it won’t block if the Poles request which they haven’t. So this is mostly Polish posturing for internal politics.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Avid »

Tanaji wrote:https://www.politico.eu/article/poland- ... af-scholz/

Poland claiming they will send Leos even if Germany refuses. There are 2 things to note:

Poland is talking about 14 tanks, too small to make a difference.
Germany has said it won’t block if the Poles request which they haven’t. So this is mostly Polish posturing for internal politics.
14 Challenger 2 -- 1 company
14 Leopard 2 -- 1 company

IMHO, nowhere near enough. Ukraine has been asking for 300+ tanks; so 20 companies+ So, I am guessing the move to send would be symbolic and with the hopes of other countries will follow and send their Leopard 2 tanks without approval from Germany, some of whom have said they will. (Canada, Czech, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Norway, Poland).

Q for the more informed individuals -- these tanks will arrive not before ground thaws. Given their weight, how well do you think these tanks perform considering the muddy grounds after thaw?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

sorry but what happened to $100 B lethal aid including 1000s of tanks, were they water tanks?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Septic tanks perhaps because they have made Ukraine a shit hole country...
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Avid »

Cyrano wrote:Septic tanks perhaps because they have made Ukraine a shit hole country...
Ukrainistan -- the afghanization of Ukraine
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Avid »

BR Experts, I am sure many of you have seen the news about UK sending 600 Brimstones to UKR.
https://www.politico.eu/article/ben-wal ... ndon-nato/

Q -- from everything I have seen, it is a Air-to-Surface missile. What will UKR be using to launch these? Any degree of clarification would be most appreciated
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Avid wrote:BR Experts, I am sure many of you have seen the news about UK sending 600 Brimstones to UKR.
https://www.politico.eu/article/ben-wal ... ndon-nato/

Q -- from everything I have seen, it is a Air-to-Surface missile. What will UKR be using to launch these? Any degree of clarification would be most appreciated
There is a ground launched variant of this missile, which I assume is what will help Ukraine. An air launched Brimstone (which is the only one in service now) will be of little use when Ukraine has no air force. Trying to integrate it on Soviet era aircraft is a big project. Aircraft that Ukraine is trying to use don't last long against Russian air defenses.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

With all these arms being promised to Ukraine one needs to consider two things:

* Which avatar of the system is being sent to Ukraine? As an example, there are 7 versions of "Leopard 2". The earlier versions, which are the ones in "storage" have a totally different protection package

* Secondly, when will each system reach Ukraine? Some systems will take a year or more to reach. Will Ukraine be there to receive them?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

German standoff over sending tanks to Ukraine
The Biden administration is stuck in a standoff with Germany over whether to send tanks to Ukraine ahead of a key meeting of Western defense leaders in Germany on Friday.

In recent days, German officials have indicated they won’t send their Leopard tanks to Ukraine, or allow any other country with the German-made tanks in their inventory to do so, unless the US also agrees to send its M1 Abrams tanks to Kyiv – something the Pentagon has said for months it has no intention of doing given the logistical costs of maintaining them.

“They have us over a barrel,” a senior Biden administration official told CNN Thursday, adding that the Germans are demanding tanks for tanks, and not budging on considering any other offers the US has made to spur Berlin to send the Leopards.

...........
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Pratyush »

This Leo 2 saga is a test of German resolve about its future direction WRT Russia.

A supply of Leo 2 will represent a final break between Germany and Russia.

The destruction of Nord stream was done with the same intension.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

From Ukraine perspective they also seem to be changing strategy, in the end of November they were confident of a complete Victory over Russia, now they are realizing they will be sacrificing huge number of men. They are also not allowed to negotiate with Russia as determined by USA and UK


Their only good strategy is trade Western equipment losses in high numbers with reduced Ukrainan Casualties, Russia will also be exhausting Ammo and Equipment, while Nato will also have to have heavy economic cost of Loosing equipment , US has to supply Electricity generating equipment, Fuel, Food apart from Military equipment. So ultimately UK and USA will also have the will to Negotiate.

Ukraine using their men as cannon fodder with Soviet equipment was a very cheap solution for the West.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by vera_k »

unless the US also agrees to send its M1 Abrams tanks to Kyiv – something the Pentagon has said for months it has no intention of doing given the logistical costs of maintaining them.
Per poster on a WSJ comment board, the reason for not sending the M1 Abrams is the near certainty that some will be taken captive and transferred to the PRC for reverse engineering.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

vera_k wrote:
unless the US also agrees to send its M1 Abrams tanks to Kyiv – something the Pentagon has said for months it has no intention of doing given the logistical costs of maintaining them.
Per poster on a WSJ comment board, the reason for not sending the M1 Abrams is the near certainty that some will be taken captive and transferred to the PRC for reverse engineering.
Then PRC should be producing 747's, and every type of Airbus jet, PRC should also be reverse engineering all Samsung and TSMC computer chips, its fear of loss of reputation not reverse engineering which is the fear.

Thats Germany does not want Leopard-2 going without M1 Abrams going in.

the Truth in 1991 the US has Air dominance, Iraqis soldiers had run out of food water in the Desert Sun- they were poorly trained and motivated to start with, US tanks with Night vision surprised them in flat open desert areas. The Iraqi tanks were 2nd grade ones without even electric turret drive or night vision, and remember Iraq had lost many of its best soldiers after its 8 year war with Iran, at that point in the war Iraqi communication had also broken down. No wonder it was a Turkey shoot in the Battle of 73 Easting- it was never an even fight , the circumstances were heavily one sided.

People read it and came with Tin Cans term. Western Tanks are damn good and have a lot of postives but the Myth making that has been built around the internet on Western weapons is cringe worthy.

Funny thing, much of what is believed on the Battle of 73 Easting was based on Interviews by one "Colonel Douglas Macgregor".
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Pratyush »

It's easy to dismiss the performance of Iraqi army and M1A1 tanks.

The Iraqi Tanks and by extension most of Russian tanks without upgrade are and were inferior to the modern western tanks.

The presence of 2 axis stabilization for the gun along with computerized FCS and thermal sights was a game changer. Something that was not present on large numbers of USSR tanks in 91. Even now they are struggling to upgrade legacy tanks with thermal sights.

The T90 is the only tank in any numbers in the Russian service. That can be called modern. The T80 has the frontal armour comparable to the western tanks. But how many have received modern upgrade package.

The T72 B3 has the systems comparable to western tanks. But how are available?

Armata for all its wow factor in not in service in any serious numbers.

It has been reported that the Indian T90 with AP shot has struggled to penetrate Arjun armour from the front.

The Russian tanks may or may not be tin cans. But if NATO is able to cobble together 300 modern western tanks for Ukraine. Along with training Ukrainians outside of Ukraine.

Russians are going to be in significant trouble.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

Nobody denies 300 Western Tanks will trouble for Russia, but I doubt it will automatically mean victory for Ukraine, and Himars with GLSDB are more escalatory along with the other stuff the West has sent.

But they are not going to get 160:1 ratio which many Western fans are going to expect.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Tanaji »

Sweden is sending 50 x CV90 IFV and the Ukies are getting s bunch of Archer artillery systems as well. The latter is quite modern….
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Pratyush »

IIRC, Only 48 Archers were built. The plans were to make 48. 24 each for Sweeden and Norway.

But Norway pulled out.

Leaving Sweeden to procure all the systems.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

NATO's stated objective is to weaken Russia militarily by inflicting losses - which they think will make Russian people revolt against Putin and topple him. Once this happens, any successor to Putin will be unable to defend Russia and will be compelled to compromise with the US. And it will be back to Yeltsin like era, opening up the country's huge natural resources to unimpeded plunder. The western mic can grab all the miltech research and innovations of Russia.

Ukraine is just a tool to achieve that. The cost of supplying all kinds of weaponry is insignificant compared to the possible payback.

So they will keep supplying whatever arms they can just to prolong this war of attrition.

Each round of resupply is one rung up the escalation ladder and each time Russia has to decide if they will counter escalate conventionally and destroy more of Ukraine and kill more slavic brothers OR go up the escalation ladder themselves.

This has already played out a few times leading to missile and drone strikes, taking out Ukr infra etc, and there is not much conventional stuff left that is untried. But retaliating non conventionally is not an option for Russia.

The next conventional escalation option for Russia is to attack Kiev and go after military leadership and Zelenski. For many reasons, all of which are not entirely clear, they are resisting this so far.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

what if Russia attacks Poland etc and Nato attacks Russia, later is certainly weakened and nuclear seems out of window. US is inflicting heavy losses and Russia can do nothing about it, for how long, or does Russia accept US as superior power?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

There is an air base in eastern Poland, Rudniki or Radom I'm not sure of the name, which is where all the NATO cargo planes land with goodies for Ukraine and are then loaded on disguised trucks and railway and sent into Ukraine.

If Russia wants to send a message to NATO to stop supplying Ukraine, it could strike this base with missiles. But that would lead to NATO Art 5 getting invoked and drag NATO well and truly into the war.

The NATO govt's have whipped up so much anti Russian sentiments that they can't but gang up and attack Russia.

Also i believe US nuclear missiles and other missile batteries are stationed in Poland, so Russia exposes itself to attacks at home which has not happened so far .

If things get to that point, these idiot NATO leaders will only want to attack Russia collectively and get a Final Solution to the Russian problem - this is what Lavrov has been saying recently.

So IMO Russia has nothing much to gain by attacking Poland now, and it cannot invoke a preemptive doctrine now after letting it go on for a year.

If this war goes on for another year and European weapons are exhausted, then perhaps Russia can consider this. Even US may not be eager to take on a powerful Russia on its borders, so far away from home.

The problem is that NATO doesn't have a face saving exit strategy and Russia can't let an antagonistic néonazi criminal regime continue in Ukraine.

The only way out is for the Ukrainian forces to suffer more losses and finally surrender, leading to the fall of the Kiev regime.

CIA secy Burns was in Kiev this week to prevent exactly that. What's been done with and to Ukraine by the west is horrendously grotesque.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Russia's nuclear doctrine is no use of n weapons to attack anyone unless Russia has been attacked first _conventional or otherwise_ and they see it as an existential threat.

In other words,
If A country attacks Russia using conventional means but Russia doesn't consider the attack an existential threat ( not a decapitating attack on its leaders, main cities etc) it will respond conventionally and proportionally.

If A country attacks Russia using conventional means and Russia considers it an existential threat, it can respond using conventional or nuclear weapons as it deems necessary _to destroy the threat_.

If A country attacks Russia using nuclear weapons it will retaliate with nuclear weapons _to destroy country A_.

This is what I understand mota mota.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

The defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war may trigger a nuclear war," former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who serves as deputy chairman of Putin's powerful security council, said in a post on Telegram.

"Nuclear powers have never lost major conflicts on which their fate depends,"

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 023-01-19/
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

In the three cases I put down above, the current conflict in Ukraine is case 1.

If NATO gets directly involved then they will be able to mobilize enough conventional capability to seriously degrade Russian forces ie Russia's ability to defend itself. We will then be in case 2.

When he realised the inevitability of AFUs defeat no matter how many weapons NATO may supply them, Zelinsky has tried several tricks to drag NATO directly into the conflict. Attacks on ZNPP, S300 missile into Poland etc were tried but he got bumboo from bidenwa for going too far to remind him that he is an actor not the director.

NATO countries especially European countries have no means or balls to get into a war in Ukraine. I mean since when did masters risk themselves for expendable vassals? US can't fight a conventional war in landlocked Ukraine with Russia controlling the Black sea. There aren't enough planes in the world to ferry supplies into Poland to enable US troops to fight a conventional war against Russian forces in Ukraine that's going to be 10x Gulf War. If the conflict goes beyond conventional land war and involves navy and subs, it's going to be full blown WW3 with MAD.

So my conclusion is neither side has any options but to drag on until Ukraine forces are decimated and then start negotiations. The west has burnt all credibility even decency in the eyes of Russia. They will occupy Ukraine completely, integrate into Russia and deal with the aftermath/insurgency risk/reconstruction in a scenario where they have control than risk a rump state which will forever be anti-Russian which the west cannot resist rearming and weaponising again. There won't/can't be a Ukraine left when this is over.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

There is one more twist to all this: suppose NATO forces fight Russian forces on Ukraine soil and gain an upper hand. Russia may be within its doctrine to use tactical nukes on Ukranian territory. In which case NATO forces have been attacked with nukes on non NATO territory in a scenario where none of the NATO countries are directly attacked.

What to do in this case? If they use nukes against Russian forces in Ukraine then will that automatically trigger a full blown nuclear retaliation from Russia against all NATO countries? With estimated 6600 N warheads they have enough for everyone. Since successive US administrations have discarded all arms control treaties and therefore there are no weapons inspections anymore, who knows what Russia has and how they are deployed beyond known sites and beyond what satellite surveillance can detect? NATO has no BMD that can counter hypersonic missiles or even swarm attacks Even downed missiles will have contamination fallout. Pretty nightmarish scenario for NATO.

Goddamnit ! Where are the starwars lasers in the sky when you need them ? :rotfl:

Which once again points to Ukraine's destruction as the most likely endgame.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »


thast a new! Abram tanks are off the plate due to complicated operation of these tanks as pointed by a guruvar here
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Roop »

IndraD wrote:what if ... Nato attacks Russia... and nuclear seems out of window. US is inflicting heavy losses and Russia can do nothing about it, for how long, or does Russia accept US as superior power?
Who says Nuclear is "out of window"?? Who writes these rules that a gang of warmongering neocon ch*tiyas in DC can arbitrarily bomb the world and even powerful NWS like Russia can do nothing but grovel and surrender? If what you're saying is true, why does Russia have nukes at all? रूसी चूड़ियां पहनके बैठे हैं , क्या?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Roop »

Cyrano wrote:... If things get to that point, these idiot NATO leaders will only want to attack Russia collectively and get a Final Solution to the Russian problem - this is what Lavrov has been saying recently.
And Lavrov is right. Frankly, I no longer think one can rule out the possibility that "these idiot NATO leaders" (as you rightly call them) will start bombing Russia proper, thus triggering WW3 and nuclear war. This is how dangerous and demented they are.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by RoyG »

Nukes won't be used.

NATO baited and will lose.

Kremlin will win perception battle.

Devastating psychological consequences for West especially before 2024 elections.

What Putin wanted.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Kati »

Exclusive: AWOL Navy SEAL Killed Fighting In Ukraine

https://time.com/6248929/navy-seal-kill ... g-ukraine/


There may be many more hundreds or thousands of such so called "AWOL" US personnel in Ukraine.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Zelensky scolds Berlin for stance on tank deliveries
he president insisted Germany should not be allowed to say “if America does something, I do something too.” He continued, “You are grown-up people. You can talk like that for six months, but people die here every day.”
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

https://mobile.twitter.com/Trollstoy88/ ... 8509092865
André Wüstner Chairperson of German Armed Forces Association: "The Bundeswehr is actually naked! We are expected to have a severe shortage of weapons by 2025 due to the energy crisis. What kind of delivery of tanks to another country can we even talk about?"
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Spiegel: German intelligence alarmed by high losses of Ukrainian army in Bakhmut
According to Der Spiegel, during a secret meeting held this week in the Bundestag, the foreign intelligence service informed security politicians that Ukraine is losing a “three-digit number of soldiers” daily. The report doesn't specify how the losses are counted and do they include wounded and captured.

These losses are suffered in Bakhmut, a strategically important city in Donetsk Oblast, Spiegel reports.

The German Federal Intelligence Service warned that if Russians took Bakhmut, there would be severe consequences as it would give Russia the ability to advance.

On Jan. 16, British intelligence noted that Ukraine’s two main supply routes into Bakhmut are under increasing pressure.

Earlier today, the Russian-led militants claimed to have captured the Klishchiivka settlement near Bakhmut. Ukraine has not yet responded to this claim.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by RoyG »

Something fishy about the apartment hit by kh22. Where are the protests? photos? Families? I think the 40 that were vaporized are military/intelligence. They can be zeroed easily if they are in compounds/bunkers away from civilian areas and they thought the Russians won't target in population areas. This was a precision hit and the Russians I think scored big.
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