Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

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Cyrano
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

There have been multiple Kherson offensives by Ukraine over the past 2 months. They mostly get their asses whupped and handed to them, with heavy casualties and equipment losses. The one more "BIG" offensive they have been talking about was IMO being planned on the back of a destroyed dam or a dirty bomb. Russia has not let them play those moves. Anyway now its too late to do anything photogenic before US midterm elections.

AFU is in no position to take back Kherson, especially since Russia has evacuated the town and has turned it entirely into a military base, perhaps for a future conquest of Odessa and Transnistria.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Vayutuvan »

Cyrano ji, nobody in the US (the voting public) cares about Pakraine.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Cyrano wrote:There have been multiple Kherson offensives by Ukraine over the past 2 months. They mostly get their asses whupped and handed to them, with heavy casualties and equipment losses.

AFU is in no position to take back Kherson, especially since Russia has evacuated the town and has turned it entirely into a military base, perhaps for a future conquest of Odessa and Transnistria.
About 80,000 civilians have (almost) been evacuated from Kherson and surrounding areas. Officially, the reason is that they will be affected if Ukraine blows up the dam. They are also vulnerable to shelling. The military explanation is that the ferry & bridge capacity across the Dnieper river can either supply the civilian population, or the army, but not both. There was initially speculation that the evacuation of civilians will be a prelude to the Russian army withdrawal across the Dnieper. That has not happened. Russians continue to reinforce the Kherson front - there are a total of 60,000 Russian army in the area - including reserves East of the Dnieper. Russia's handling of PR has however been poor. They are not making it unequivocally clear that Kherson will be defended to the end (as Stalin would have done back in WW2).

Russia's vulnerability in Kherson is logistics. They have just lost use of the single railway bridge across the Dnieper. The road bridge is almost out of use. They have to rely on ferries and Pontoon bridges. Pontoon bridges will be difficult to manage, if the Dnieper dam is blown. The Russians had earlier pulled back to shorten the front and ensure that some of the front is within artillery range of guns and MLRS kept east of the Dnieper - thereby ensuring that ammo can be supplied without crossing the Dnieper.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by ks_sachin »

Deans wrote:
Russia's vulnerability in Kherson is logistics. They have just lost use of the single railway bridge across the Dnieper. The road bridge is almost out of use. They have to rely on ferries and Pontoon bridges. Pontoon bridges will be difficult to manage, if the Dnieper dam is blown. The Russians had earlier pulled back to shorten the front and ensure that some of the front is within artillery range of guns and MLRS kept east of the Dnieper - thereby ensuring that ammo can be supplied without crossing the Dnieper.
Deans tactically do you think that rather than retreat - if the Russian army had the manpower and wherewithal - a better course of action would have been to create a larger buffer/bridgehead ( i use the term loosely) between the UKR positions and the river (and the bridge/supply lines across the river)?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

ks_sachin wrote:
Deans wrote:
Russia's vulnerability in Kherson is logistics. They have just lost use of the single railway bridge across the Dnieper. The road bridge is almost out of use. They have to rely on ferries and Pontoon bridges. Pontoon bridges will be difficult to manage, if the Dnieper dam is blown. The Russians had earlier pulled back to shorten the front and ensure that some of the front is within artillery range of guns and MLRS kept east of the Dnieper - thereby ensuring that ammo can be supplied without crossing the Dnieper.
Deans tactically do you think that rather than retreat - if the Russian army had the manpower and wherewithal - a better course of action would have been to create a larger buffer/bridgehead ( i use the term loosely) between the UKR positions and the river (and the bridge/supply lines across the river)?
Sachin, Yes. That was what I thought the Russians should have done. Their earlier positions were about 10-20 km forward of where they are now,
which put Kherson and some river crossings out of Ukrainian artillery range and brought Nikoleyev and Krivoi Rog (much larger cities than Kherson) in Russian heavy artillery range. Of course this is an amateur view and we have no idea what the Russian and Ukrainian strengths were before the
Russian withdrawal to their current position. The Russian concern was that they were outnumbered. Earlier they were unable to pinch off a Ukrainian salient across the Inhulets river, so they felt they were incapable of a serious offensive in Kherson, with their available strength and could not reinforce as a larger force could not be supplied. They were also vulnerable to small Ukrainian units infiltrating across Russian lines and acting as spotters for Ukrainian artillery, or carrying out small raids (the Ukrainians call them Recon and sabotage groups).
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by ks_sachin »

Ah. Thanks Deans.
The grand plans fall prey to practicalities of warfare.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Some points about winter fighting in Ukraine, which will start next month.

The Russians have winter clothing, but are short of white camo.
Ukraine is short of winter clothing, but is being supplied by NATO.

Forests lose their vegetation cover, so men and machines are easier to spot.
Fires have to be lit to keep warm, gives away your position. Vehicle engines have to be left on.
Reduced water flow on the Dnieper river, so pontoon bridges are more stable, making it easier to supply the Russian forces west of the river, in
the Kherson area.
Truck breakdowns are more common. Russia is already facing a shortage of trucks (so is Ukraine). Supplies have to be per-positioned before any
offensive.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Deans
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Ukraine started what looks like a major offensive to take Kherson.
There has been no rain for the last 5-6 days so the ground has dried and heavy vehicles can move off road (after this, it will start snowing, but
the snow will melt almost immediately making the ground slushy, until it gets permanently frozen from Dec).
Ukraine has attacked in 2 places - in the north (the town of Snihorivka) and opposite the shortest route to Kherson. Situation too confused for any reliable report.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by mody »

Still surprising that in today's day and age, a military with zero offensive airpower and extremely limited defensive air cover provided by fighter aircrafts, is able to mount large scale offensive against an adversary, with a very large offensive air power capability. Ukraine has surface to air missiles, from very short range manpads to S300, but it should be difficult to provide cover to a large swathe of area that covers the frontlines and the entire supply chain that runs for hundreds of kms.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

The front lines are over a 1000km long, with trenches dug in multiple defense lines, mines layed etc. Most places are flat with no useful geographical features except for rivers here and there, and of course the Dneipre. Lots of patches of woods that conceal trench lines well in summer.
Russian use of air power has been sparing, they seem to prefer long range artillery most of the time. Assault helis have been used sometimes but it remains risky due to manpads and sams.
I too can't help feeling that Russia can use air power a lot better to attack supply lines behind the front but Russia always seems to find some reason to not engage in heavy SEAD/DEAD and then use air dominance to achieve this.
May be Deans ji can enlighten us.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by kit »

mody wrote:Still surprising that in today's day and age, a military with zero offensive airpower and extremely limited defensive air cover provided by fighter aircrafts, is able to mount large scale offensive against an adversary, with a very large offensive air power capability. Ukraine has surface to air missiles, from very short range manpads to S300, but it should be difficult to provide cover to a large swathe of area that covers the frontlines and the entire supply chain that runs for hundreds of kms.
Well that large adversary does not seem confident in using its air power to that extent , isn't it .. like that shockinaw of the Iraq war ?

I do think Russia is showing a lot of restraint not resorting to carpet bombing etc
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

mody wrote:Still surprising that in today's day and age, a military with zero offensive airpower and extremely limited defensive air cover provided by fighter aircrafts, is able to mount large scale offensive against an adversary, with a very large offensive air power capability. Ukraine has surface to air missiles, from very short range manpads to S300, but it should be difficult to provide cover to a large swathe of area that covers the frontlines and the entire supply chain that runs for hundreds of kms.
its a US/NATO vs Russia war, where is Ukraine in this? What was lethal military aid for and 100s of Bs $$ committed for? With videos of Ukr soldiers getting trained in UK, US posted here, we see such a point of view. If military wasn't enough harsh economic scanctions, cancellation of Russian culture, deplatforming whatever rudimentary Russian news channels are there in the world. speaks more of the insecurity of the other side than Russia.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

Moscow propagandist Vladlen Tatarsky from the East Battalion says that the 155th and 40th brigades of the Russian marines suffered more losses in Pavlivka than in both Chechen wars. https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1 ... KH78O4lELg

whats is he talking abt Deans saar, same village you posted on?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

SM mutterings that Russia to withdraw troops from Kherson. No idea of details.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Gyan »

Russia has announced surrender of western part of Kherson and is withdrawing across the river
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

mody wrote:Still surprising that in today's day and age, a military with zero offensive airpower and extremely limited defensive air cover provided by fighter aircrafts, is able to mount large scale offensive against an adversary, with a very large offensive air power capability. Ukraine has surface to air missiles, from very short range manpads to S300, but it should be difficult to provide cover to a large swathe of area that covers the frontlines and the entire supply chain that runs for hundreds of kms.
This conflict has been going on since 2014.

NATO has trained Ukrainian troops and designed/funded defensive schemes across the frontlines with Donetsk and Luhansk. Millions of USD have been spent on Ukraine - a few times over monies to provide an apartment for every homeless person in the US! Could have improved very bad housing for military personnel on military bases. Not to speak of a cool $31 trillion US national debt.

And, here we are, after some 8 years the Donetsk airport has been captured by the Russians (now that Donbas is part of Russia).

However, the end has yet to come and unfortunately, I doubt the West will be in command. More on that in the Fallout thread.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Dilbu »

Gyan wrote:Russia has announced surrender of western part of Kherson and is withdrawing across the river
This could well be a trap to lure in Ukraine forces forward. There were some articles published a week ago commenting on that scenario.
Russian flag comes down in Kherson, but Ukraine sees a trap
Russia’s flag has come down over the main administrative building in Kherson, Ukraine, but Ukrainian officials and war experts aren’t convinced surrender is nigh.

They suspect Russia may be setting an elaborate trap, creating the illusion of surrender while simultaneously ramping up reinforcements for a major battle to come. “The statements coming from Russia are contradictory. They seem very intent on convincing everybody that they’re going to leave, but what they’re doing doesn’t seem to be consistent with that,” said Branislav Slantchev, a political science professor at University of California, San Diego, who writes about the war.
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week told an Italian newspaper that the movement was a ruse. “Their best-trained troops are in place. Nobody left. We see it and don’t believe them,” he said.
Stepanenko said the group, which tracks daily movements in the conflict, has observed Russia shift some military elements across the river. But the country is also setting up defensive positions northwest of the city, she added.

“A removal of a flag is not an indicator that Russians are withdrawing from the city at this moment,” Stepanenko said.

Natalia Humeniuk, spokesperson for Ukraine’s southern military command, said the obvious signs of surrender may be an attempt to convince Ukrainian forces that it’s safe to push forward, “while [Russian forces] are preparing for street battles,” Reuters reported.
“Kherson might be a kind of an elaborate attempt to try to draw the Ukrainian forces into an assault in the belief that it could be easy, and then it won’t be and then they will have to send reinforcements,” Slantchev said.

With more Ukrainian forces focused on Kherson, Russia may have more success in theaters such as Bakhmut, where Wagner Group forces have been pounding Ukrainian positions — which have so far held the line — for weeks.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by mody »

Russia has ordered all military to evacuate from Kherson. This is a very big blow.

Will have to see what Russia's next move is.

Maybe with back channel negotiations, Russia wants to retain only Donbas and Crimea and give up Kherson and Zaporizha
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by eklavya »

BBC: Russia to withdraw troops from key city of Kherson
Russia to withdraw troops from key city of Kherson

Russia's military has been ordered to pull out of the Ukrainian city of Kherson, the only regional capital it captured since the invasion began in February.

Russia's commander in Ukraine, Gen Sergei Surovikin, said it was no longer possible to keep supplying the city.

The withdrawal means Russian forces will pull out entirely from the western bank of the River Dnipro.

It is also a significant blow as Russia faces a Ukrainian counter-offensive.

"In these circumstances, the most sensible option is to organise the defence along a barrier line along the river Dnipro," Gen Surovikin told a meeting of senior military leaders.

The announcement came shortly after Russian media said the deputy leader of Kherson, Kirill Stremousov, had been killed in a car crash. Seen as one of the main cheerleaders of the occupation of Kherson, he had warned only six days ago that it was "most likely" that Russian forces would have to cross to the eastern bank.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

The last 3 months have been Russian without much damage to Ukraine. If this continues Russians will be even out Crimea in 6 months.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

waiting for reportage from Deans saar who is our reporter embedded in Russian forces
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Russia's MOD announced that they are pulling out of the Kherson region. This was apparently the recommendation of the Army's leadership.

If done, I think this will be Russia's biggest military defeat since WW2. It seems inexcusable because Russia first had setbacks in Kharkov, which made them take corrective steps in Kherson. Unlike Kharkov/ Krasny Liman, all the Russian forces in Kharkov are regular army divisions (no local militia) including an elite airborne division. Russia had been supposedly reinforcing Kherson for 2 months. They had fought of Ukrainian attacks for the last 3 months, with a worse force ratio than what they have now. Ukrainian forces were supposed to have taken heavy casualties and were inferior in artillery with no air power. If after all that, Russia has vacated its territory without a fight (just after a referendum where it became part of Russia), it may make Putin's position untenable, as I think there would be a furore among Russians.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by mody »

Russia could have carried out carpet bombing of Ukrainian positions to their west. There was very little civilian population in the area. Yet, they did not employ their airforce effectively.

Some reports suggest, Russia too suffered heavy losses in the fighting over the past month and all attempts at braking the AFU momentum came to a naught. Some counter offensive initiatives resulted in heavy losses for the Russians.

The Kherson offensive had been building up, from even before the Ukraine offensive near Kharkiv in the North. This is truly a humiliating defeat and I'm sure many in Russia will be asking some tough questions about the actual situation on the ground in Ukraine.

Even in Afghanistan or the 1st Chechen war Russia did not suffer a defeat like this.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by fanne »

just a contrarian view from a armchair non general -

Russia is pulling to it side of the river. They have figured (as people are saying, wrongly, as it amounts to defeat) but if anything were to go wrong and some 10,000-30,000 russians were taken PoW, it would be game over for russia. Currently it is a setback, but then now UA has to cross the river.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

The deputy head of Russia’s Kherson Region, Kirill Stremousov, has been killed in a car accident RT News

the top local official Vladimir Saldo confirmed on Wednesday. The region’s health minister, Vadim Ilmiev, told the media that Stremousov had been involved in a traffic incident on a road connecting Kherson to the town of Armyansk in northern Crimea.

Stremousov often spoke on behalf of the regional administration, particularly when it came to the situation in the city of Kherson. He gave regular updates on social media and regularly talked to journalists about the region’s affairs. Just this morning, the late official revealed the latest information about the battlefield situation, reporting that Ukrainian attempts to advance in a town some 50km to the north from Kherson had been thwarted by Russian troops.

Russia incorporated Kherson Region last month, after residents there voted in a referendum to break away from Kiev and be accepted into Russia. Kiev dismissed the ballot as a “sham” and continued its military push toward the regional capital.

READ MORE: Ukrainian advance towards frontline city has failed – official
Kherson is located on the right bank of the Dnieper River and is relatively close to Ukrainian positions. The regional administration urged civilians to leave the city due to the threat from Ukrainian forces and has moved its headquarters to the other side of the river.

Stremousov came to prominence in the national media after earlier having a brush with death. In September, his office in Kherson was hit by a Ukrainian rocket, but he was not there due to a scheduled appearance on a talk show. The blast injured several workers of the administration.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

Kherson withdrawl
https://www.rt.com/russia/565869-russia ... s-kherson/
Russia has decided to withdraw its troops from the right bank of the Dnieper River, including the regional capital of Kherson. The Defense Ministry explained that it wants to avoid unnecessary losses among its forces and spare the lives of civilians.

While saying the decision was not easy, the commanders see little sense in keeping the troops on the right bank, the chief of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, Army General Sergey Surovikin, told Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu on Wednesday. The general pointed to continued Ukrainian attacks on the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric dam on the Dnieper River, arguing that it could mean the total isolation of Russian troops in Kherson.

“If the Kiev regime … launches an even more devastating attack on the Kakhovskaya dam, a flow of water could arise that would flood large areas, causing significant civilian casualties,” Surovikin added. This, according to the commander, “would create further threats for civilians and risk total isolation of our force grouping on the right bank of the Dnieper.”

A pullout would help avoid the worst-case scenario and also keep the combat effectiveness of the force grouping in the area, Surovikin said.

This is a very difficult decision. Yet, we would be able to preserve the most important thing: the lives of our soldiers.


“Start the pullback of forces,” Shoigu told Surovikin in a video released by media outlets. The minister ordered the general to organize secure relocation for both soldiers and civilians.

Over the past weeks, the local authorities have launched an effort to bring as many civilians as possible to the left bank of the Dnieper, citing a threat posed by Ukrainian forces located on the opposite side. Over 115,000 people had left the city as of today, according to Surovikin.


Russia incorporated Kherson Region last month, after residents voted in a referendum to break away from Ukraine and seek accession to Russia. Kiev rejected the vote as a “sham” and pledged to use military force to recapture all territories it considers to be under its sovereignty.

Ukraine has been waging a counter-offensive over the past two months, forcing Russian troops to fall back in some places. Earlier this week, Ukrainian troops launched several attacks, making an attempt in the east of Kharkov Region, in the northwestern part of the Lugansk People’s Republic, and in Kherson Region. All of the assaults were successfully repelled, the Russian military said.

According to Surovikin, Kiev’s troops suffered heavy losses, amounting to over 12,000 soldiers in October. Russian casualties were seven to eight times lower, he said. The general claimed that Russia’s troops managed to “stabilize” the situation on the frontlines, including with the help of those mobilized since late September.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by ks_sachin »

fanne wrote:just a contrarian view from a armchair non general -

Russia is pulling to it side of the river. They have figured (as people are saying, wrongly, as it amounts to defeat) but if anything were to go wrong and some 10,000-30,000 russians were taken PoW, it would be game over for russia. Currently it is a setback, but then now UA has to cross the river.
War fighting is not just about tactics.

It is also about optics, psychology and morale - not just of the troops but also of the population.

As much as we want them to prevail Putin and his armed forces have not covered themselves with glory. His intelligence community have been duds or they did not game scenarios enough. This idealogical support by the West should have been apparent.

A sad state.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

IndraD wrote:Moscow propagandist Vladlen Tatarsky from the East Battalion says that the 155th and 40th brigades of the Russian marines suffered more losses in Pavlivka than in both Chechen wars. https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1 ... KH78O4lELg

whats is he talking abt Deans saar, same village you posted on?
Yes, same village. Russian sources agree that the 155 Guards Naval Infantry brigade (roughly equal to the US marines) lost around 60 killed and 240 wounded, in 4 days of fighting. This unit was originally based in the Russian far east and was deployed to Ukraine because of the shortage of infantry.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

ks_sachin wrote: War fighting is not just about tactics.

It is also about optics, psychology and morale - not just of the troops but also of the population.

As much as we want them to prevail Putin and his armed forces have not covered themselves with glory. His intelligence community have been duds or they did not game scenarios enough. This idealogical support by the West should have been apparent.

A sad state.
Yes. Russia has done miserably in the optics - even for its own population.
If Ukraine can't cross the Dnieper river neither can the Russians. So the liberation of Kherson (which was taken on day 1 of the war and has big historical significance for Russia), Nikolaev and Odessa are no longer possible.

Russian soldiers who have fought outnumbered and defended Kherson for the last 4 months will wonder why they did so, when they could have sat
behind the Dnieper.
There were reportedly 100,000 Ukrainians waiting to attack the Russian grouping West of the Dnieper. They can now defend the area they have
liberated with a fifth of that number and redeploy the rest to places like Bakhmut.

The Russian public has been wondering why their army is constantly retreating and, when they go on the offensive, can't capture a single village.
The Ukrainian army is not German army of 1941. Russians won't criticize the army, but will go against the political leadership.
Russians in Ukraine will have no confidence in Russia's promise to protect them, when after they have risked their lives to vote for joining Russia,
Russia has asked them to leave their homes and surrendered their land without a fight. Or (as in Lyman) left them to face revenge from Ukrainians.

These are the same people whose grandfathers fought to the last man in WW2, even to defend inconsequential villages. The Russian army, which can't supply a relatively small force across a river, had no difficulty crossing the Dnieper in 1943 (under German fire and with no engineering infrastructure) and liberate Kiev - on the same day back in 1943 and after that supplying a million men who had crossed the river.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by mody »

While talking about morale, Russians have surrendered and pulled their forces out of every city and large town, once the situation became grim, rather than try and defend the town/city and put up a fight. Ukraine put up a fight in all the cities from Mariupol to Severodonetsk and all other major towns and cities. Russians had to engage in street fighting in urban centers and it took a lot of time and painful fighting to gain a few blocks.
As opposed to this, Russia has simply pulled its forces out and handed the towns back to Ukraine.
Now, if in the future the order comes to stick around and fight to the bitter end, will the average Russian soldier be willing to do that?
Most of the so called elite Russian units have also suffered heavily since the start of the war. It's like at Waterloo. "Le Guards retreat, its every man to himself". The average Russian soldier and especially those drafted recently would hardly be willing to stand firm and die.

The biggest problem has been, that Russia has not been able to stop or interdict and cut off the Ukranian supply lines.

The other major surprise is that Ukraine would or at least should not have a lot of heavy armour left. Even if they do, Russia has a large stockpile of man portable anti-armour missiles. This means that the current offensive is primarily an infantry offensive by Ukraine with heavy artillery backing. Very little heavy armour and almost zero offensive airpower. For a large scale offensive over hundreds of Kms and involving tens of thousands of soldiers, one would have to go back to world war-1 to find a similar situation.

Vietnam and the Korean war did see similar offensives by North Vietnam and China/NoKo combine, but then the topography was very different and even in Vietnam this kind of tactic wasn't employed on a large scale against the Americans.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

mody wrote:While talking about morale, Russians have surrendered and pulled their forces out of every city and large town, once the situation became grim, rather than try and defend the town/city and put up a fight.
The Russians pretty much wrote the manual for urban combat (e.g. Stalingrad). Its baffling that they are giving up towns without a fight.
Even if they could not supply their forces West of the Dnieper - though the Russian army has enough resources, they could have held out at Kherson, with their artillery on the east bank supporting the city - as it happened at Stalingrad.

In the Ukrainian offensives to take Izyum and Lyman, the Ukrainians crossed rivers with mechanized forces, that the Russians could not.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

FYI:

For those interested in the topic of "The Kherson Withdrawal", in 30 minutes, a live discussion on YT between Gonzalo Lira (in Kharkiv, UKR), Brian Berletic (Ex USMC, from Thailand), and Andrei Martyanov (Ex Russian naval officer, from Seattle, US).

Expect the discussion to go on for about 2 hours.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

sir can u post the gist pls!
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

It defies logic that after occupying Kherson for over 6 months Russia would give up the city even before it comes under direct attack by Ukr forces. Cant be incompetence or miscalculation when so many generals have rotated and so much intel & info is available. One credible explanation for Russia pulling out of Kherson is to preserve maximum troops until hard winter sets in, which should be at the most a month from now. And then they may have some plans to set in motion.

I see this Kherson withdrawal like reducing the flame under the pot about to boil over to a slow simmer. To stretch the conflict. For what purpose ? There are many. Throwing Europe into utter chaos could be one.

That they have evacuated all civilians first shows they consider these people as any other Russian citizen who deserve safety and protection. So any giving up of Kherson region or Zhaporizya region IMO is not happening. Several thousands of their people have got Russian passports during the past months. We all know what fate awaits those people if Ukronazis return. Major reconstruction of apartments, public infra is going on in Mariupol, with Russian workforce, resources and money.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by sohamn »

Cyrano wrote:It defies logic that after occupying Kherson for over 6 months Russia would give up the city even before it comes under direct attack by Ukr forces. Cant be incompetence or miscalculation when so many generals have rotated and so much intel & info is available. One credible explanation for Russia pulling out of Kherson is to preserve maximum troops until hard winter sets in, which should be at the most a month from now. And then they may have some plans to set in motion.

I see this Kherson withdrawal like reducing the flame under the pot about to boil over to a slow simmer. To stretch the conflict. For what purpose ? There are many. Throwing Europe into utter chaos could be one.

That they have evacuated all civilians first shows they consider these people as any other Russian citizen who deserve safety and protection. So any giving up of Kherson region or Zhaporizya region IMO is not happening. Several thousands of their people have got Russian passports during the past months. We all know what fate awaits those people if Ukronazis return. Major reconstruction of apartments, public infra is going on in Mariupol, with Russian workforce, resources and money.
its not stretching the conflict but signaling the inability to pursue more objectives. Ukr has the initiative and a very strong upper hand now and unless EU / NATO capitulates - by next summer Ukr would have managed to claw back Russian gains as well in Donbas. I think Russia is out of weapons and supplies, the HIMARs attacks on russian weapon depots have taken a big toll. Russia has not option to give up hard fought gains now.

Maybe in future we may see someone on the right of Putin throw him out of power for these humongous blunders
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

IndraD wrote:sir can u post the gist pls!
* Gen Surovikin, when he took over, had said that he will have to make some very difficult decision/s. Frankly, Andrei Martyanov has been speculating about Kherson for some time. (Recall that a lot of people said that the Russians will defend Kherson - it was based on the assets the Russians were bringing into the city. Turns out they did that to make sure that the withdrawal would be orderly)
* Russians are fighting a conflict of attrition (not land). This has been said for months. In this model Russia is not interested in defending land, they are interested in making sure that the opposing forces are reduced in numbers.

However, to the average Russian this is a very big deal - Russia just surrendered Russian territory

* Supporting a force on the West side was untenable
* The 300,000 new recruits are just about coming to the front
* No political fallout, will not hurt Putin. Putin is there to stay



Andrei on his YT channel later on had a few more points:

* The dam has been damaged and is undefendable. If Russians stayed put the threat of a dam burst would cause more headaches than it was worth defending the city. He provided a map showing areas that would be under 1.5 meters of water (a map I had seen a few weeks ago from another source). This despite Russians having reduced the water behind the dam by 50%

My opinion:

* The Ukrainians will not be able to occupy Kherson either - for the same reasons: potential flooding if the dam is damaged, and besides some morale victory it provides no real gains (to either side)
* What is "for sure" is that Odessa is on the back burner
* And, if the Russians really want to cross the river they are more than capable. Yes the cost will be higher, but not prohibitive

* Alternatives to Putin will be worse than Putin for the West
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

sir how is Odessa possible if Kherson is not!? So far we have been reading this place is strategic ports hub, transaction points, location, portal of entry to Odessa, leaving up Kherson must have been some serious and compelling decision.
(Dam is damaged is new rabbit out of hat, didn;t know at all!)

Kakhovka Dam in Moscow-Occupied Ukraine 'Damaged' by Kyiv Strike – Russian Agencies https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/11/ ... ies-a79300
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Russia has completed its pullout from Kherson. Since the announcement was made, 20000 men and 3500 vehicles and heavy equipment were moved East of the Dnieper and the bridges blown. In all 40,000 men were withdrawn (with about 80,000 civilians).

While I consider the withdrawal to be a debacle for Russia, I think it requires considerable skill and competence to pull of a withdrawal of this size, while being attacked by a larger enemy force, without leaving behind men and equipment. It does point to a good level of professionalism at the battalion / brigade commander level. It seems to be the larger strategy and leadership at a senior level that is lacking.
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