Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

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ks_sachin
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by ks_sachin »

Cyrano I stand corrected.
Thanks
Y. Kanan
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Y. Kanan »

IndraD wrote:EU parliament: their Priyanka Gandhi has accepted over 100,000 Ukro soldiers have died and refuses to apologise for it https://www.rt.com/news/567504-eu-ukrai ... s-apology/

Image
I highly doubt this figure, as the Ukrainians have fought in a very cautious (cowardly?) manner from day 1, mostly picking off Russians from a safe distance with UAV's, NLAW's, Stingers, artillery, and so on. And often while hiding behind civilians to deter Russians from shooting back (but not anymore as the Russians stopped pulling their punches after the first month or so). Anyway the UAF is a pretty timid fighting force, and you can see it in all the war vids. There are countless vids of Russians continuing to attack even after taking casualties, but I've yet to see a single instance of Ukrainians doing the same. When Ukrainians get hit, the unit pulls back to avoid further losses if possible, and they avoid close combat as much as they can. Russians fight aggressively and often attack while outnumbered.

The Ukrainians have fought, by and large, about as hard as the French in 1940, putting up a decent fight when circumstances are favorable, but retreating or surrendering otherwise. And keep in mind the Ukies have enjoyed the numerical superiority, better weaponry, better tech in general, real-time NATO AWACS, JSTARS, ELINT, sat recon, etc. One hell of a lot of advantages! How are the Ukrainians still struggling so much? The answer is they're timid and casualty-averse, like any western military. Don't believe all the hype about how brave and heroic they are; the truth is the Ukrainian military hasn't been especially tough, at least nowhere near as tenacious as the Russians. Some would just call that "fighting smart", but it looks pretty unimpressive to be honest.

The UAF is simply not the kind of fighting force that suffers 100,000 dead and keeps on fighting. And by the way, Russian KIA's have been ridiculously inflated also.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by SRajesh »

https://www.defensenews.com/industry/20 ... o-ukraine/
So more for the US MIC and profits for the corporate
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

IndraD
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

ZELENSKY BANS THE ORTHODOX CHURCH IN UKRAINE https://twitter.com/The_Real_Fly/status ... kX_N8R74dg
Cyrano
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Y Kanan,
Agree with your observations, however there are some nuances. Ukraine's forces are a hotch potch mix of various groups as I mentioned in previous posts. And not everyone fights the same way.

There is a mix of cowardly, hateful, cruel, psycopathic behaviour and suicidal bravado in how various units have acted in various situations. There is also rampant drug use, rape, torture and killing of fellow soldiers who want to surrender in hopeless situations or try to desert.

The right wing militias are embedded across many regular units as "enforcers" who routinely do these things, especially when fighting in urban areas, additionally they terrorise and brutalise civilians suspected of being pro Russian. There is some evidence that Bucha was the deed of Azov + SBU.

However, ukr special forces, regular AFU units and their soldiers have put up good fights in many instances and even in hopeless situations. Attacks on ZNPP, Kherson, even the defence of airports near Kiev in early weeks of the conflict are examples.

The resistance at Donbass front lines and Bakhmut has been on since months, under the full fury of Russian arty, special forces, Chechen units, and now Wagner. It's only in the last few days that Bakhmut is finally cracking. Is it really patriotic courage or no choice posture due to fear of execution as traitor we don't know.

This war has been a fascinating military saga, though most tragic. It will be studied for many decades for human & soldier behaviour in war times.

And Ukranian psychology and how it evolved (with lots of external nudging) so extremely in just a couple of decades will be another fascinating subject of study, as much as German behaviour in the first half of 20th century.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

ks_sachin wrote:Cyrano I stand corrected.
Thanks
Thank you for being gracious. Namo vah!
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

As much as I personally find the 100,000 number too high, after listening to many arguments have concluded that the real number is very close, for the following reasons:

* UvdL is the President of the European Commission. IF there is one head that is given as close to the real number it is her, not any PM/Prez of an EU state
* EU and NATO co-exist in Brussels. The shortest distance between a civilian and military leaders
* And, she is the Ex-def min of Germany. She knows what questions to ask and how to interpret numbers if need be
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

British MoD released a statement that the fall of Bakhmt would have limited value.

In short, Bakhmut has either fallen or is about to fall.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by RoyG »

NRao wrote:British MoD released a statement that the fall of Bakhmt would have limited value.

In short, Bakhmut has either fallen or is about to fall.
Critical territory has no value because they don't hold it anymore.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

NRao wrote:As much as I personally find the 100,000 number too high, after listening to many arguments have concluded that the real number is very close, for the following reasons:

* UvdL is the President of the European Commission. IF there is one head that is given as close to the real number it is her, not any PM/Prez of an EU state
* EU and NATO co-exist in Brussels. The shortest distance between a civilian and military leaders
* And, she is the Ex-def min of Germany. She knows what questions to ask and how to interpret numbers if need be
I also think the 100k number is higher than what I expected it to be. However, there is a report on Russian social media and picked up by Western commentators like Alexander Mercouris & Scott Ritter. This looks at death notices and funerals in Ukrainian towns (historic and last 2 weeks) and has come up with 102700 dead. As a cross reference, it looks at the number of wounded and the number of missing. A similar study done for Russia (by a pro Ukraine group based in Latvia) suggested 14,000 dead Russians. This actually not far from Russia's official figure, back in Sept, of around 9000 KIA, which did not include the Wagner group and interior ministry troops (incl. Chechens).

That said, Russia's own estimate of Ukrainian dead (incl mercenaries) in Sept was 61,000. This seemed inflated as the number of seriously wounded was barely 50,000. The US estimate is that both Russia and Ukraine have suffered around 100,000 irrecoverable casualties (the Russian KIA figure was put at upto 20,000). The Ukraine official figure of their own dead is 13,000. This excludes foreigners, national guard and independent right wing units.
Also excludes missing and bodies not recovered.
Last edited by Deans on 05 Dec 2022 10:35, edited 2 times in total.
Aditya_V
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

I think egged on by NATO and with Holdomor memories the Ukranians have done huge sacrifices hoping the Russians will run of steam, like the 1941-45 this is war of attrition between USA NATO Ukraine vs the Russians. We will know only some sort of true picture once the conflict ends.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

Err what does Ayodhya have to do with this thread
Aditya_V
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

Explosions at Ryzaan and engels military bases- these cannot be hit with anything Ukraine has, it clear that these, Crimea Bridge, Crimea airbases, Nato, sinking of Russian ships, NATO is trying out its best Stealth Cruise Missiles - it is pretty irresponsible, like they are itching for an all out war.

Well lets see how long this attrition war goes on before something gives. But I think US transport and AWACS fleet on overdrive consuming Pilot hours and spare parts. This could be China best opportunity to target Taiwan.

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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Aditya_V wrote:Explosions at Ryzaan and engels military bases- these cannot be hit with anything Ukraine has, it clear that these, Crimea Bridge, Crimea airbases, Nato, sinking of Russian ships, NATO is trying out its best Stealth Cruise Missiles - it is pretty irresponsible, like they are itching for an all out war.

Well lets see how long this attrition war goes on before something gives. But I think US transport and AWACS fleet on overdrive consuming Pilot hours and spare parts. This could be China best opportunity to target Taiwan.
Apparently, the drone hit a fuel truck, which blew up and damaged a Tu-22 Bomber. The aircraft was obsolete some 20 years ago, but has been used in the Ukraine war. If Ukraine can strike at what must presumably be a very secure base hundreds of km inside Russia, it must be a cause of serious concern in Russia.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

Yes offcourse its a concern but I think Ukraine or Allies Launched a very advanced Nato weapon, nobody arms the Iraqis or Libyans with weapons that can hit America or Western Europe.

And it will not be done if the Russian Army is collapsing in Ukraine. Neither Russia or Nato can really afford to loose this badly. Both are doubling down.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by gakakkad »

I wonder if it was launched from within Russian soil. And they chose to target a fuel truck so I am guessing the explosive in itself was not high grade . I am guessing a small drone close to the airbase could do the trick. Even amateur one
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Pratyush »

It could be a Ukrainian equivalent of the Sahid 136.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by vijayk »

https://swarajyamag.com/world/ukraine-w ... sias-point
Ukraine War: Is The West Finally Coming Around To Acknowledge Russia's Point?
Macron followed this up with a long interview to a French news channel in America. In it, he made it clear that any new security architecture for Europe would need to include guarantees to Russia for its own security.

“We are specifically referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statements that NATO is approaching Russia’s borders and deploying weapons capable of endangering it”, he stated.

Macron further added, “This issue will be part of peace discussions, and we need to prepare for what will happen after (the Ukrainian conflict), and think about how we can protect our allies while also giving Russia guarantees of its own security at the moment when the negotiating table is returned.”
That is also probably why President Macron bluntly told the press that no real peace was possible without factoring in Russia’s strategic concerns. So, readers needn’t be surprised if they hear that the representatives of the warring factions met secretly in New Delhi, for example, to discuss the boundary conditions of peace talks.

This is inevitable, since it was clear from the start of this senseless, needless proxy war, that there was no way the Russians would, or could, be prevented from achieving their clearly-stated political objectives: an end to an eastward expansion into Ukraine by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the de-Nazification of Ukraine.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by dnivas »

The problem with above is that France, Germany and the US does not respect its own agreements.

-why should Russia trust anything the west says after NATO 'defensive alliance' moved hundreds of KM's eastward towards Russia
-why should Russia trust anything the west says after the west sat on for 8 years on Minsk accords. They did not pressure Ukraine to do anything and now Angela Merkel said it was just a ploy to arm ukraine until they can take on Russia
-why should Russia trust anything the west says after they froze 300 Billion in foreign assets
-why should Russia trust when NATO and EU is spending billions trying to and killing Russian soldiers
-why should Russia trust anything the west says after the west pulled out of ABM, INF and other arms control treaties

I hope we get more chaos in Europe and NATO, US and Russia are all mired there playing their own games. I just want someone to bring the Uk down a few notches. That blight of a country is somehow pissing all over the world.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by gakakkad »

^ even the "west" completely does not trust itself. The French have been in and out of NATO . Turks have been threatening to invade Greece which is another NATO country. Over the years tons of European weapons programs have been junked to make way for American weapons . And in this war the biggest loser is EU and not Russia . So no question of Russia trusting "NATO" or whatever.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by V_Raman »

Window to negotiate peace will be the time when India holds the presidency of G20 as we are the only country with sufficient prestige that will be able to invite Russia in along with others and the outcome will be considered credible by the rest of the world.

If the Rus-Ukr peace deal gets signed in the presence of NaMo in India - that would be :twisted:
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

This drone attack is a classic Neocon startegy:

* First Victoria Nuland visits Ukraine
* Next they unlaod a drone (nothing strange there - just Google "1000 kn Ukraine drone", which has been in the news in the past few days)

* To foil peace efforts by both Scholz AND Macron

* Meanwhile French, German and Madam von der Leyen have been complaining that the US cheated and UvdL actually suggested that the EC should counter the US bill/law (Inflation reduction Act) that is attracting EU companies to move to the US

(Aside: the Russian base that was attacked is not a small time base. It is one of many key bases from which Russia will launch nuclear strikes against the EU)

IF we can keep the analysis of what screws and bolts were used in the drone, out (the natural tendency) and focus on the two factions: those that want the war to continue AND spread across the globe (Neocons, led by Nuland) and those that want to terminate it (hopefully France+Germany)(recall I had stated that I am waiting for Scholz to pivot towards Russia?), we may have a picture to paint.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by vijayk »

NRao wrote:This drone attack is a classic Neocon startegy:

* First Victoria Nuland visits Ukraine
* Next they unlaod a drone (nothing strange there - just Google "1000 kn Ukraine drone", which has been in the news in the past few days)

* To foil peace efforts by both Scholz AND Macron

* Meanwhile French, German and Madam von der Leyen have been complaining that the US cheated and UvdL actually suggested that the EC should counter the US bill/law (Inflation reduction Act) that is attracting EU companies to move to the US

(Aside: the Russian base that was attacked is not a small time base. It is one of many key bases from which Russia will launch nuclear strikes against the EU)

IF we can keep the analysis of what screws and bolts were used in the drone, out (the natural tendency) and focus on the two factions: those that want the war to continue AND spread across the globe (Neocons, led by Nuland) and those that want to terminate it (hopefully France+Germany)(recall I had stated that I am waiting for Scholz to pivot towards Russia?), we may have a picture to paint.
Senile fellow is totally clueless and the necon/neolib arms lobby is itching for a war. Scums in the media are in bed with them. Pretty grim
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by pravula »

V_Raman wrote:Window to negotiate peace will be the time when India holds the presidency of G20 as we are the only country with sufficient prestige that will be able to invite Russia in along with others and the outcome will be considered credible by the rest of the world.

If the Rus-Ukr peace deal gets signed in the presence of NaMo in India - that would be :twisted:
Yes, “prestige”. Maybe throw in a few nobull prizes too no?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Vayutuvan »

Three people share the NoBull [z]elensky is a necessary evil!
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by V_Raman »

In my assessment the western powers including USA are desperately looking for an OUT here. All the rhetoric seems to have died down and everyone seems to be uttering some kind of peace word.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by pravula »

V_Raman wrote:In my assessment the western powers including USA are desperately looking for an OUT here. All the rhetoric seems to have died down and everyone seems to be uttering some kind of peace word.
What’s in it for India?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Arima »

NRao wrote:This drone attack is a classic Neocon startegy:


(Aside: the Russian base that was attacked is not a small time base. It is one of many key bases from which Russia will launch nuclear strikes against the EU)
yet another instance of gross mismanagement or incompetence to protect key assets. 1000km safe land is no assurance when deep state want nuke war!!!
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by mody »

Some reports suggest that the drone may have been guided locally from within Russia, to accurately target the airbase or the fuel truck inside the air base.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

There is discussion in the Russian media as to why nuclear capable strategic bombers are kept in the open and not in hardened shelters.
The RuAF is much smaller than during the Soviet era, so in theory there should be plenty of unused aircraft shelters.

The answers provided are: The time to get the aircraft airborne is far higher when its inside a shelter. Fueling cannot be done inside a hangar.
At Russia's current level of alert, some aircraft of this category have to be capable of taking off at short notice.

The aircraft is huge. Its apparently not possible to build hangars with the roof as strong as the walls, if the hangar size is very large. If the drone
strike causes the roof to collapse, the damage would be greater than what actually happened. (I have seen the hangar of the P8-I in Goa, it has
a thin roof that looks like offering only weather protection).

The USAF also keeps similar aircraft like the B-52 outdoors.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Haresh »

Deans wrote:There is discussion in the Russian media as to why nuclear capable strategic bombers are kept in the open and not in hardened shelters.

The aircraft is huge. Its apparently not possible to build hangars with the roof as strong as the walls, if the hangar size is very large. If the drone
strike causes the roof to collapse, the damage would be greater than what actually happened. (I have seen the hangar of the P8-I in Goa, it has
a thin roof that looks like offering only weather protection).
Would it not be possible to place a wire mesh net over the aircraft, like the old style torpedo nets ?
Two-three layers, this would stop a drone from impacting, or detonating to close. just curious.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

Russia has claimed that its military has destroyed a number of high-value targets with “high-precision” strikes in Ukraine, including killing 90 “Polish mercenaries” in just one day.

On Thursday, the Defence Ministry’s telegram channel published a tally of the latest estimates. According to the post, “as a result of high-precision Russian Air Force strikes” in Zaporozhye Region, “five US-made MLRS and German-made MARS-II multiple launch rocket systems” were hit.

On top of that, in the Donetsk People’s Republic, “two US-made HIMARS units were destroyed,” the ministry added.

Elsewhere along the frontline, the Ukrainian military is said to have lost more than 200 personnel, a helicopter and multiple vehicles.

The US shipped the first HIMARS M142 units to Ukraine in June, followed by several more in the following months. A number of MLRS M270 systems, which are the track-based cousin of the HIMARS, have also been provided to Kiev. Germany has supplied MARS-II systems, which is a clone of the MLRS as well.

According to Ukrainian officials, the weapons, which have a longer range and higher precision than similar Soviet-made systems, have enabled the country’s military to hit Russian targets deep behind the frontline, including ammunition and fuel depots as well as bridges.

In late August, Ukraine’s defense ministry said it had more than 20 units of HIMARS, MLRS, and MARS. Four more HIMARS units arrived in the country in October, officials in Kiev revealed.

Meanwhile, the Russian military has claimed on multiple occasions that its forces have knocked out many of these Western weapons systems in Ukraine.
https://www.rt.com/russia/567900-russia ... d-ukraine/
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Per a Putin speech in the past day or so:

* 75,000 new troops have reached the front lines
* Another 75,000 are in the battle areas, but in support, and
* 150,000 still training. Speculation is that these are combat reserves
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by bala »

American instructor reveals Ukrainian frontline death rates

https://www.rt.com/russia/567915-ukrain ... nt-mozart/
8 Dec, 2022
US Mozart Group has revealed The Ukrainian military is taking massive casualties in the battle for Artyomovsk (known as Bakhmut by Kiev). Andrew Milburn, who was a colonel in the US Marines, is an American Instructor for Mozart Group. The retired Marine who heads the group, which claims charity status but also trains Ukraine’s military, alleges that some units are seeing casualty rates of 70% and more. Milburn admitted, noting that about 80% of the people sent to Mozart for training have never fired a weapon before.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Of all western rags, Newsweek publishes this:

https://www.newsweek.com/lessons-us-civ ... on-1764992

Lessons From the U.S. Civil War Show Why Ukraine Can't Win | Opinion
Fri, Dec 09, 2022

During the early years of America's Civil War, President Abraham Lincoln sought a limited conflict against people he still regarded as fellow countrymen and with whom he sought reconciliation. Only after three years of stalemate did he turn to "Unconditional Surrender Grant," who in turn unleashed General William Tecumseh Sherman to "make Georgia howl" and help bring the war to its decisively violent conclusion.

Russian President Vladimir Putin waited only six months before switching from a special military operation to full scale war against Ukraine. Putin's initial assault was limited to barely 150,000 troops. He expected a quick victory followed by negotiations on his principal concerns: Russian control of Crimea, Ukrainian neutrality, and autonomy for the Russian population in the Donbas, but he was wrong. Putin had not counted on Ukraine's stiff resistance or the West's massive military and economic intervention. Faced with a new situation, Putin changed his strategy. Now he is about to unleash his own General Sherman and make Ukraine howl.

Last month Putin gave General Sergey Surovikin overall command of Russia's war in the Ukraine. Surovikin comes from the technologically sophisticated Aerospace Forces, but has fought on the ground in Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Syria where he is credited with saving the Assad regime. Surovikin has stated publicly that there will be no half measures in Ukraine. Instead, he has begun to methodically destroy Ukraine's infrastructure with precision missile attacks.

Armies need railroads and while Sherman systematically tore up the tracks leading to Atlanta, Surovikin is destroying the electricity grid which powers Ukrainian railroads. This has left Ukrainian cities cold and dark, but Surovikin seems to agree with Sherman that "war is cruelty, and you cannot refine it."

Russia has now put its economy on a war footing, called up the reserves, and assembled hundreds of thousands of troops, including both conscripts and volunteers. This army is equipped with Russia's most sophisticated weapons, and contrary to much Western reporting, is far from demoralized. Ukraine on the other hand has exhausted its armories and is totally dependent on Western military support to continue the war. As Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley noted last week, Ukraine has done about all it can.

Once Ukraine's rich black soil has firmly frozen, a massive Russian onslaught will commence. In fact, it has already begun at the important transportation hub of Bakhmut, which has become something of a Ukrainian Verdun. We expect Bakhmut to fall and predict that without much more Western support, Russia will recapture Kharkov, Kherson, and the remainder of the Donbas by next summer.

As the West did in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, we are stumbling into another optional, open-ended military commitment. Ukrainian troops are being trained in Europe. Western defense contractors are already maintaining Ukrainian military equipment and operating the HIMAR missile systems. Active-duty American military personnel are now in Ukraine to monitor weapons deliveries. As the Russian offensive gains momentum, we expect loud voices to call for sending ever-more advanced weapons and eventually NATO boots on the ground to defend Ukraine. These voices should be unambiguously rejected for many reasons. Here are a few.

Generations of Western leaders worked successfully to avoid direct military conflict with the Soviet Union. They recognized that, unlike Moscow, the West has very little strategic interest in who controls Donetsk. They were certainly unwilling to risk a nuclear war for Kharkiv. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and the alliance has no obligation to defend it. Nor has Putin threatened any NATO member, but he has made clear that any foreign troops entering Ukraine will be treated as enemy combatants. Sending NATO troops into the Ukraine would thus turn our proxy war with Russia into a real war with the world's largest nuclear power.

Some have presented this conflict as a morality play, between good and evil, but the reality is more complex. Ukraine is no flourishing democracy. It is an impoverished, corrupt, one-party state with extensive censorship, where opposition newspapers and political parties have been shut down. Before the war, far right Ukrainian nationalist groups like the Azov Brigade were soundly condemned by the U.S. Congress. Kiev's determined campaign against the Russian language is analogous to the Canadian government trying to ban French in Quebec. Ukrainian shells have killed hundreds of civilians in the Donbas and there are emerging reports of Ukrainian war crimes. The truly moral course of action would be to end this war with negotiations rather than prolong the suffering the Ukrainian people in a conflict they are unlikely to win without risking American lives.

And then there is always the unexpected turn of events where tensions in one region compound and spill over into another. There is a growing possibility of Iran launching a preemptive military strike on Israel. The revolutionary regime in Iran is facing an increasingly serious popular revolt. A new government in Israel is determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The JCPOA is dying and with it any hope of sanctions relief for Iran's failing economy. A war would unite Iran's population in a patriotic struggle, damage Israel's ability to strike Iran, and pressure the West to negotiate an end to sanctions.

There is little doubt that the United States would be drawn into any conflict between Israel and Iran. What worries us is that Iran has been supplying Russia with weapons for the war in Ukraine and Moscow might feel obliged to come to the aid of its allies in Tehran. That sort of domino effect is precisely what started the First World War. Who expected that the assassination of an Austrian grand duke by a Serbian anarchist in Bosnia would lead to thousands of Americans dying in France? We do not need a replay.

Perhaps we are wrong. Perhaps there will not be a Russian winter offensive or perhaps the Ukrainian armed forces will be able to stop it. However, if we are correct and February finds General Surovikin at the gates of Kiev, we need to have soberly considered and honestly debated as a nation and an alliance the extent of our commitment to Ukraine and what risks we are willing accept to our own security.

David H. Rundell is a former chief of mission at the American Embassy in Saudi Arabia and the author of Vision or Mirage, Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads. Ambassador Michael Gfoeller is a former Political Advisor to the U.S. Central Command. He served for 15 years in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union.

The views expressed in this article are the writers' own.
chetak
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by chetak »

“2014 Minsk Agreement was an attempt to give Ukraine time. They used this time to become stronger, which can be seen today.”

~ Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

She confirmed yesterday Minsk agreement was A TRAP for Russia, gave Ukraine time to train with NATO for 8yrs


The Minsk agreements were a series of international agreements aiming for ceasefire in Donbas war fought between ethnic Russian groups and Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbas region of Ukraine.
https://tass.com/world/1547141
Cyrano
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

I'd find it hard to believe that Russia didn't realise this for over 8 years... perhaps NATO walked into Russia's trap thinking they have a strong Ukraine to use as a battering ram against Russia and are discovering that nothing has gone as planned...
dnivas
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by dnivas »

Putin in 2015 or i think it was someone from the Kremlin who talked about this. They knew that it was a temporary solution and knew the extent of the game played by the nicer west [Ger/Fra]. It was just that the Russia state was not fully geared to take on the NATO states at that time. They also did not have the hypersonics inducted or even fully tested.
some of the videos from the Bakhmut front are horrific. The amt of casualities that the Ukr are facing is just insane. There are multiple videos of second line of defense Ukr soldiers who said they are going to surrender to the Russians when they show up. There was a video where the Ukr were pissed off at polish mercs who stayed overnight before moving to the front. That night the quiet section of the front got incoming artillery and killed some of the mercs and also their comrades.
The below video is one of them. Ukr troops mad at their commander and also the cold that seems to be killing more of their friends than the Russians
https://www.bitchute.com/video/aUHstFGzEgnH/
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