Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[Pratyush]

Pratyushji,

You are missing the wood for the trees. Most important question is where is the manpower?

If you implied Russia. They still have a lot of manpower required to deal with the situation that they have not put in the field.

People are not thinking that Russians are treating it as a special military operation and not a war.

Which is inherently limiting the manpower options the Russians have. In a manner of speaking the Russians are actually fighting with an arm voluntarily tied behind their backs.

This is something the most observers are ignoring. Once this self decided restrictions are removed. Then they can fully mobilise the population. I estimate that they can mobilise perhaps 1.5 million men and women with previous military service experience to deal with the additional Ukrainian force strength. But at the expense of removing productive workers from the civilian economy.

Something that the Russians have not decided to do till date. Because they don't need to.

[dnivas]

To add to what others have already said. Gen Milley how now said that Ukr is losing 100 KIA and 200-300 out of action each day
https://www.usnews.com/news/world-repor ... eld-deaths

Gen. Mark Milley said public assessments that as many as 200 Ukrainians soldiers are dying every day match the American military’s understanding of the battlefield carnage.

The Ukrainian military is suffering from roughly 100 killed-in-action every day, and 100 to 300 wounded-in action, said Milley, t

Axios has a report out that mentions 1000 causalities a day.
https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/ukrain ... -arakhamia

This is extremely demoralizing for the Ukr NATO trained army. 2-3 more months of this and we will have kids fighting the battles. Many fighting age Ukr's have already escaped Ukr and living in Europe and S. America. i have one from Odessa living in my house the past 10 days and most of his friends are out of the country. His Dad is still in Mykolaiv and probably will fight the russians but his step brother is already out of the country and living in Germany.

[Deans]

On casaulties, Russian casaulty numbers were high in the beginning with all the convoys being ambushed, bombed etc. Now with long range artillery warfare - Russian should be exhausted but saving up a lot on casualties. I do not see how with long range artillery duel Russians are still loosing equal to Ukrainians. I'm guessing russian casulty numbers now are perhaps 1/5th or 1/3rd at best. I you keep lobbing 10X artillery inaccurately - U would inflict atleast 5X damage or 3X in worst case.

The Oryx website (of purportedly identified vehicle losses) is interesting for the trend it shows.
2/3rd of all armored vehicle losses were in the first 4 weeks of the war.
So losses are currently 1/5th of phase 1 (it should be the same for human casualties).

Because Russia has now set up repair bases close to the front and is not losing ground anywhere, it can recover and repair vehicles to a far greater
extent than Ukraine. Its the same with evacuation of wounded.
Western weapons have also created a logistics nightmare for Ukraine. Apart from guns of different calibers, apparently even 152mm ammo sourced from different former East bloc countries are not the same.

[YashG]

On casaulties, Russian casaulty numbers were high in the beginning with all the convoys being ambushed, bombed etc. Now with long range artillery warfare - Russian should be exhausted but saving up a lot on casualties. I do not see how with long range artillery duel Russians are still loosing equal to Ukrainians. I'm guessing russian casulty numbers now are perhaps 1/5th or 1/3rd at best. I you keep lobbing 10X artillery inaccurately - U would inflict atleast 5X damage or 3X in worst case.

The Oryx website (of purportedly identified vehicle losses) is interesting for the trend it shows.
2/3rd of all armored vehicle losses were in the first 4 weeks of the war.
So losses are currently 1/5th of phase 1 (it should be the same for human casualties).

Going by this means, 60-66% lost in Week 1-4 -> 15% loss per week
33-40% Loss in next 12 Weeks -> ~ 3% loss per week now

So yes, 1/5 th losses.

[John]

On casaulties, Russian casaulty numbers were high in the beginning with all the convoys being ambushed, bombed etc. Now with long range artillery warfare - Russian should be exhausted but saving up a lot on casualties. I do not see how with long range artillery duel Russians are still loosing equal to Ukrainians. I'm guessing russian casulty numbers now are perhaps 1/5th or 1/3rd at best. I you keep lobbing 10X artillery inaccurately - U would inflict atleast 5X damage or 3X in worst case.

The Oryx website (of purportedly identified vehicle losses) is interesting for the trend it shows.
2/3rd of all armored vehicle losses were in the first 4 weeks of the war.
So losses are currently 1/5th of phase 1 (it should be the same for human casualties).

Because Russia has now set up repair bases close to the front and is not losing ground anywhere, it can recover and repair vehicles to a far greater
extent than Ukraine. Its the same with evacuation of wounded.
Western weapons have also created a logistics nightmare for Ukraine. Apart from guns of different calibers, apparently even 152mm ammo sourced from different former East bloc countries are not the same.

Deans where are you 2/3rds are from first 4 weeks. You actually made post on losses on Mar 22 and in that you put 260 tanks. Currently we are 774 tanks and looking at Oryx posts Russian losses on tanks are atleast 6 a day (hit 600 in May 2nd) so it hasn’t changed much IMO.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... v8aCkPzgvw

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... v8aCkPzgvw

First 4 weeks was around 10 tanks a day so it’s gone down about 50% since then. Keep in mind this requires visual confirmation if Ukr take back some of territory we might see uptick in Oryx counts as well like we saw in mid March.

[Deans]

To add to what others have already said. Gen Milley how now said that Ukr is losing 100 KIA and 200-300 out of action each day
https://www.usnews.com/news/world-repor ... eld-deaths

Gen. Mark Milley said public assessments that as many as 200 Ukrainians soldiers are dying every day match the American military’s understanding of the battlefield carnage.

The Ukrainian military is suffering from roughly 100 killed-in-action every day, and 100 to 300 wounded-in action, said Milley, t

Axios has a report out that mentions 1000 causalities a day.
https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/ukrain ... -arakhamia

200 dead (which seems credible after cross referencing various figures) would be 1000 dead + wounded.
Added to this are POW. I believe these numbers will start increasing sharply. Ukraine underplays casualties because a high compensation was promised to families of KIA. Many KIA are listed as missing, or even deserted. Russia + DPR/LPR have together reported 15,000 POW.
If these figures are only for the Donbass, overall figures will be 25% higher.

With 30,000 casualties a month (min) it can be assumed that 25,000 of these are from fighting arms. The prewar strength of the regular Ukraine army was 17 brigades of 3500 men. Assuming 3000 of these are from combat arms, that made 50,000 men.
The next line of defense was the national guard with 23 brigades of 3500 men, giving 69,000 in combat arms, 9000 of these are defending Kiev.
Add 10,000 foreign fighters.

That gives approx. 120,000 men in combat roles, which is almost equal to estimated KIA+WIA+POW
Even if casualties were half this figure, a unit will have next to no effectiveness with 50% casualties (which is higher for the bravest soldiers and
officers who take the most risk). The original Ukrainian army has ceased to exist.

[John]

This looks to be first documented Mi-28 shootdown (corrected it is Mi-24), could be work of starstreak IMO . This MANPAD I think is a game changer surprised it feel off the radar and didn’t achieve much export success.

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... v8aCkPzgvw

Ka-52 pic released by Russia notice the damage from tree splinters shows perils of flying low, I believe it is same one from this video.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1533 ... v8aCkPzgvw

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... v8aCkPzgvw

[Deans]

The Oryx website (of purportedly identified vehicle losses) is interesting for the trend it shows.
2/3rd of all armored vehicle losses were in the first 4 weeks of the war.
So losses are currently 1/5th of phase 1 (it should be the same for human casualties).

Deans where are you 2/3rds are from first 4 weeks. You actually made post on losses on Mar 22 and in that you put 260 tanks. Currently we are 774 tanks and looking at Oryx posts Russian losses on tanks are atleast 6 a day (hit 600 in May 2nd) so it hasn’t changed much IMO.

First 4 weeks was around 10 tanks a day so it’s gone down about 50% since then. Keep in mind this requires visual confirmation if Ukr take back some of territory we might see uptick in Oryx counts as well like we saw in mid March.

John, I'm not sure if my 22 Mar post included captured tanks too. It wasn't for 4 weeks, though the war was 4 weeks old by then. I had also not compared 2 time periods, as that post was to compare T-90 losses as a proportion of the total. However, on 21 May, I quoted Oryx to show that
losses in the first 10 days were similar to the next 70 days. So losses were already at 1/5 of the levels of the first 10 days.

[Deans]

If you implied Russia. They still have a lot of manpower required to deal with the situation that they have not put in the field.

This is something the most observers are ignoring. Once this self decided restrictions are removed. Then they can fully mobilise the population. I estimate that they can mobilise perhaps 1.5 million men and women with previous military service experience to deal with the additional Ukrainian force strength. But at the expense of removing productive workers from the civilian economy.

Something that the Russians have not decided to do till date. Because they don't need to.

Russia conscripts approx. 260,000 men a year.
If they want to draft all former conscripts who have served in the last 5 years, that's 1.3 million. Not more that half will realistically want to serve
in the army (pre-war estimate put this at 10%). That gives 650,000 of which about 500,000 are army. Some of these will exercise the legal right not to serve abroad (though they can and will probably serve in Donetsk/Luhansk). My guess is that 100,000 of these former conscripts have already volunteered to serve.

[John]

Deans where are you 2/3rds are from first 4 weeks. You actually made post on losses on Mar 22 and in that you put 260 tanks. Currently we are 774 tanks and looking at Oryx posts Russian losses on tanks are atleast 6 a day (hit 600 in May 2nd) so it hasn’t changed much IMO.

First 4 weeks was around 10 tanks a day so it’s gone down about 50% since then. Keep in mind this requires visual confirmation if Ukr take back some of territory we might see uptick in Oryx counts as well like we saw in mid March.

John, I'm not sure if my 22 Mar post included captured tanks too. It wasn't for 4 weeks, though the war was 4 weeks old by then. I had also not compared 2 time periods, as that post was to compare T-90 losses as a proportion of the total. However, on 21 May, I quoted Oryx to show that
losses in the first 10 days were similar to the next 70 days. So losses were already at 1/5 of the levels of the first 10 days.

Yea that post is right this, what I can piece together. I am not fancy to graph it. There seem to be 2nd big spike (first was week of invasion) between Mar end and April which is likely due to Ukr reclaiming north of Kyiv (allowing them to catalogue some of abandoned armor) and I suspect any similar recaptures will result in another spike.

200 Mar 13th
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... v8aCkPzgvw

300 Mar26th

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... v8aCkPzgvw

400 (450) April 2nd

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... v8aCkPzgvw

500 tanks April 13

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... v8aCkPzgvw

600 tanks May 2nd

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/statu ... BAwCbNXnAA

750 tanks Jun 5th

[Deans]

John, Its possible that we've had different reporting dates for the same Oryx figures. I think the way Russia sees it is :

Russian losses from phase 2 (Apr onward) have been significantly lower than in the first 2 weeks and they can live with that.
More importantly, I think current levels of losses (or ammo consumption) equals Russian production capacity.

Ukrainian losses in phase 2 are higher than phase 1 and they may not be able to tolerate that.
As I have tried to calculate in my earlier post, Ukrainian losses in phase 2 have probably reached a point where the original Ukrainian army is no longer capable of combat operations. Those formations that are still fighting are in danger of being encircled or fixed in place on the Donbass line.
Ukrainian domestic armaments industry is also badly hit and they need western weapons to continue the war in a meaningful way.

If Russia destroys the bulk of the remaining Ukrainian army in the Severo-donetsk / Lichansk pocket and later in the Slavyansk/ Kramatorsk area and then says its war aims have been met and its ready to talk peace (having got Donetsk, Lischansk & Kherson districts and some of Zaparozhye and Kharkov) does the West have a further incentive to continue the war ?

[Cyrano]

Gen Bakshi in his inimitable style:

[Lisa]

Pratyushji,

You are missing the wood for the trees. Most important question is where is the manpower?

If you implied Russia. They still have a lot of manpower required to deal with the situation that they have not put in the field.

No, no Sir, Ukraine. Where is it to find the manpower for all these new weapons. The Ukrainian charade will end miserably as the Russians grind on.

[Pratyush]

If you implied Russia. They still have a lot of manpower required to deal with the situation that they have not put in the field.

No, no Sir, Ukraine. Where is it to find the manpower for all these new weapons. The Ukrainian charade will end miserably as the Russians grind on.

Interesting, i had not considered that angle.

I have to confess, i have not really looked at Ukrainian national situation that closely. So I don't have any clue about it.

[Pratyush]

John,

Snip....
If Russia destroys the bulk of the remaining Ukrainian army in the Severo-donetsk / Lichansk pocket and later in the Slavyansk/ Kramatorsk area and then says its war aims have been met and its ready to talk peace (having got Donetsk, Lischansk & Kherson districts and some of Zaparozhye and Kharkov) does the West have a further incentive to continue the war ?

Do we actually understand the western incentive to provoke this war to begin with?

If we do, then, we can be sure that as long as that incentive remains, the war will grind on.

The only way for this war to end is for the west to lose it's will. With Poland Jumping up and down to be the next sacrificial lamb. I don't think that the war will end, only just with the defeat of Ukraine.

[vijayk]

John,

Snip....
If Russia destroys the bulk of the remaining Ukrainian army in the Severo-donetsk / Lichansk pocket and later in the Slavyansk/ Kramatorsk area and then says its war aims have been met and its ready to talk peace (having got Donetsk, Lischansk & Kherson districts and some of Zaparozhye and Kharkov) does the West have a further incentive to continue the war ?

Do we actually understand the western incentive to provoke this war to begin with?

If we do, then, we can be sure that as long as that incentive remains, the war will grind on.

The only way for this war to end is for the west to lose it's will. With Poland Jumping up and down to be the next sacrificial lamb. I don't think that the war will end, only just with the defeat of Ukraine.

1. 4 years of rhetoric against Putin had all the Democrats raged up.

2. Biden thought they could finish Putin and win election in November

3. Arms lobbies after Afghan needed a new war

[John]

John, Its possible that we've had different reporting dates for the same Oryx figures. I think the way Russia sees it is :

Russian losses from phase 2 (Apr onward) have been significantly lower than in the first 2 weeks and they can live with that.
More importantly, I think current levels of losses (or ammo consumption) equals Russian production capacity.

Ukrainian losses in phase 2 are higher than phase 1 and they may not be able to tolerate that.
As I have tried to calculate in my earlier post, Ukrainian losses in phase 2 have probably reached a point where the original Ukrainian army is no longer capable of combat operations. Those formations that are still fighting are in danger of being encircled or fixed in place on the Donbass line.
Ukrainian domestic armaments industry is also badly hit and they need western weapons to continue the war in a meaningful way.

If Russia destroys the bulk of the remaining Ukrainian army in the Severo-donetsk / Lichansk pocket and later in the Slavyansk/ Kramatorsk area and then says its war aims have been met and its ready to talk peace (having got Donetsk, Lischansk & Kherson districts and some of Zaparozhye and Kharkov) does the West have a further incentive to continue the war ?

I haven’t seen much evidence of Russian losses being significantly lower, yes we haven’t seen large ambushes we saw in first few weeks but since then no of incidents are about the same and now I think we are seeing more trench fighting/artillery strike which is likely to cause more casualties but less vehicles destroyed.

I would say first 2 weeks might have seen about 10k KIA for Russian side and since then probably 40k if you include all various groups (so around 30k+ for just Russian soldiers).

I believe lot of losses are also now being absorbed by Separatists and Wagner so we Russian soldier casualties might be lower.

[John]

One of things I want to dig more into why haven’t we seen any Ukr/Russian S-300/400 intercepts, we all remember Patriots intercepting Scuds in GW.

But so far both sides seem to have no problem (granted Ukr S-300PS are outdated) using older Tochka ballistic missiles to hit targets.

[Deans]

I would say first 2 weeks might have seen about 10k KIA for Russian side and since then probably 40k if you include all various groups (so around 30k+ for just Russian soldiers).

I believe lot of losses are also now being absorbed by Separatists and Wagner so we Russian soldier casualties might be lower.

There are no credible figures from either side. However, multiple sources have given some indication of Ukrainian losses in the Donbass (phase 2).
If Russia has 40k killed (incl mercenary/ militia), it would mean irrecoverable losses of 200k. That is the strength of the entire pre invasion force and double the entire strength of the 100+ BTG's assigned to Ukraine. We know however, that there is no mobilisation. Units involved in phase 1 have been rotated out and overall combat strength does not appear to have significantly diminished. My sense is that a limited call up of past conscripts (semi-voluntary basis) has given 100,000 men, of which probably 60k are in Ukraine to replace losses. (12k KIA, 48K WIA).

The UK estimate is 15k Russians (all sources) KIA
The Russian official figure (till beginning of June) is 3500 Russian Army + 2600 Militia KIA (Wagner figures not given).
This is an underestimate in my opinion, since LPR/DPR militia played a marginal role in phase 1.
Ukraine estimate of Russian dead is 35k (as exaggerated as Russia IMO) but what is significant here is that 20 of these 35k were reported by the endo f the first month.

[Baikul]

This is in follow up to what John ji posted about a MI -24 shootdown. In a war where there’s one great combat video emerging after another, this is probably the best I’ve seen so far.

Incredible footage that shows a pair of helis. The first shows one deploying flares while a missile misses it the very last moment!

The second gets taken down hard. Explosion and the fact that you can observe the missile path may suggest it’s probably not starstreak. UA apparently claiming Igla I believe (not sure)

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ ... ame=iossmf

[Pratyush]

One of things I want to dig more into why haven’t we seen any Ukr/Russian S-300/400 intercepts, we all remember Patriots intercepting Scuds in GW.

But so far both sides seem to have no problem (granted Ukr S-300PS are outdated) using older Tochka ballistic missiles to hit targets.

I can think of multiple reasons.

1) perhaps the missile battery is not located at optimum interceptor location, in relation to the potential target and the incoming missile.

2) the lack of trained man power with sufficient skills to operate the system.

3) lack or long-range early warning to cue the tracking and engagement.

[YashG]

This is in follow up to what John ji posted about a MI -24 shootdown. In a war where there’s one great combat video emerging after another, this is probably the best I’ve seen so far.

Incredible footage that shows a pair of helis. The first shows one deploying flares while a missile misses it the very last moment!

The second gets taken down hard. Explosion and the fact that you can observe the missile path may suggest it’s probably not starstreak. UA apparently claiming Igla I believe (not sure)

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ ... ame=iossmf

Where were those helis flying (behind enemy lines) ? What were they doing (Rocket run or Evacs) ? How dispersed are these MANPADS in Ukraine (This was donetsk) ? The tree lines are ambush points for helis, Tanks etc. and they seem to be in plenty.

[John]

This is in follow up to what John ji posted about a MI -24 shootdown. In a war where there’s one great combat video emerging after another, this is probably the best I’ve seen so far.

Incredible footage that shows a pair of helis. The first shows one deploying flares while a missile misses it the very last moment!

The second gets taken down hard. Explosion and the fact that you can observe the missile path may suggest it’s probably not starstreak. UA apparently claiming Igla I believe (not sure)

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/ ... ame=iossmf

I think first miss was from igla or stinger but second hit could be Martlet which is slower than Starstreak but can be used better against lower flying targets. Martlet and Starstreak both do employ a small warhead so you will see small explosion.

Reported claims Ukraine struck a Russian tug operating around snake island

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... kn4eYtnjKQ

[Baikul]

…

Where were those helis flying (behind enemy lines) ? What were they doing (Rocket run or Evacs) ? How dispersed are these MANPADS in Ukraine (This was donetsk) ? The tree lines are ambush points for helis, Tanks etc. and they seem to be in plenty.

Can’t speak to Russian intent but it was probably some sort of CAS. In theory Russian military assault doctrine is broadly arty, then CAS by fixed or rotary wing, then they send in the tanks and lastly the troops to clean up.

But who know whether this was an independent mission or part of a larger objective.

Agreed that the flat terrain with tree lines is absolutely crazy in terms of ambush potential. It’s a wonder to be that more helis havent been shot down. However the Russians must be doing some things right - there are random Ukrainian accounts of how dangerous it is to use MANPADS as they often attract instant retaliation.

The copter was already flying nape of the earth when it got hit, so that speaks to how tough it must be out there. As an aside I think it may have run out of flares unlike the first one that escaped.

I think first miss was from igla or stinger but second hit could be Martlet which is slower than Starstreak but can be used better against lower flying targets. Martlet and Starstreak both do employ a small warhead so you will see small explosion….

Would you call that a small explosion though? I thought it was decent sized and that’s the reason I thought it wasn’t a starstreak. Anyway, we shall find out soon enough I think.

On another note, not sure if already reported here. Russian SU -25 down. Russia says training accident

https://mobile.twitter.com/marine_ukrai ... 108903940t

[John]

Would you call that a small explosion though? I thought it was decent sized and that’s the reason I thought it wasn’t a starstreak. Anyway, we shall find out soon enough I think.

Current theory it is Martlet which doesnt use tungsten rods and isn’t that fast but is laser guided. It has warhead similar to any manpad but as it is laser guided it can be used against low flying targets unlike Stinger which takes few seconds to lock on after firing it.

[NRao]

6-15/2022 :: BREAKING: Ukraine to U.S. Defense Industry: We Need Long-Range, Precision Weapons (UPDATED)

Ukraine has a message it wants to convey to the U.S. defense industrial base and the government.

The war-torn nation desperately needs artillery and artillery rounds, but what can truly give it the upper hand over its Russian invaders are long-range precision weapons such as armed Predator drones, loitering munitions and the multiple launch rocket system.

Denys Sharapov, Ukraine’s deputy minister of the defense in charge of procurement, support for weapons and equipment, and Brig. Gen. Volodymyr Karpenko, land forces command logistics commander, spoke with National Defense Editor in Chief Stew Magnuson and other reporters through an interpreter in the Ukraine Ministry of Defense’s booth at the Eurosatory conference in Paris on June 15.

Back in Washington, politicians and pundits debated this week as to whether it was practical to send Ukraine armed Predator drones as part of a $40 billion aid package. Sharapov and Karpenko said such technology may give Ukraine what it needs to gain the upper hand in the war.

The interview has been edited for brevity and clarity.

.............

[dnivas]

US mercenaries are all of a sudden against war
https://t.me/RtrDonetsk/6833?single
https://t.me/RtrDonetsk/6834?single

[John]

Interesting report here a lot of Ukrainian strikes are attributed to US Intel but looks like social media looks to be their source. Reportedly Russian soldier makes what looks like harmless post in 2016 about ammo in expo center in Donbas city. Ukr run into that 6 yr old post now and they lob some shells at it lucky from them looks like they haven’t moved the stored ammo at all.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... TLPLOt58-Q

Original post
https://twitter.com/vidalsorokin/status ... TLPLOt58-Q


- LNR forces firing captured Milan

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1538 ... o3lymwBuIg

One of things I want to dig more into why haven’t we seen any Ukr/Russian S-300/400 intercepts, we all remember Patriots intercepting Scuds in GW.

But so far both sides seem to have no problem (granted Ukr S-300PS are outdated) using older Tochka ballistic missiles to hit targets.

I can think of multiple reasons.

1) perhaps the missile battery is not located at optimum interceptor location, in relation to the potential target and the incoming missile.

2) the lack of trained man power with sufficient skills to operate the system.

3) lack or long-range early warning to cue the tracking and engagement.

To add to what you said I wonder with S-300 & 400

- Reaction time is too slow by the time system is brought online after missile is detected it is too late
- Detection and filtration capabilities to identify short range BM and drones are sub par. Unlike for example like Iron dome which has excellent software to identify and catalogue threats, Russians are missing that putting pressure solely on operators to do that. So radars might be capable on paper (power, detection range) but lacking on execution.

[John]

Image of Velikiy Ustyug looks to have been peppered by grad rockets if you recall back in Mar Ukrainian claimed to have hit a vessel with BM-21. It was mistagged as Vasily Bykov and Russians denied such an incident. But looks like instead another vessel got hit and you cannot hide it forever, it’s now being moved back to Caspian for repairs.

https://twitter.com/grangere04117/statu ... YhIe5C2rqw

[NRao]

Anyone interested in numbers:

https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/15 ... 8221609984

Yesterday the Ukrainian government admitted their vehicle loss figures, revealing catastrophic losses over the course of the war thus far.

This tells us something critical about the info war: that the Russian MoD's claims about their own operations are basically true.

Thread

[Deans]

Anyone interested in numbers:

https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/15 ... 8221609984

Yesterday the Ukrainian government admitted their vehicle loss figures, revealing catastrophic losses over the course of the war thus far.

This tells us something critical about the info war: that the Russian MoD's claims about their own operations are basically true.

Thread

The estimate of vehicle loss, matches the estimate of personnel losses now being admitted by Ukraine. (If a formation has lost 40% of its manpower its reasonable to expect that it lost 40% of its vehicles). It also matches the percentage of foreign mercenaries who are casualties. Russia apparently hacked Ukrainian govt data and published the number of foreign fighters by nationality (total KIA, returned him and remaining).

[Cyrano]

Ukr has a mix of regular forces and right wing militias and sundry territorial defense groups etc each having their own agenda and 'ethics' and some infighting, led by dubiously elected people with corrupt oligarch and US support, trained in UK, US and some NATO countries, on NATO tactics learnt on diverse NATO equipment but applying the same on the battlefield using mostly Soviet equipment designed for markedly different doctrines.

They are up against DNR, LNR militias raging to avenge 14000 kith and kin brutalised and killed over 8 years, supported by RA, Chechen, Wagner units with combined arms, trained forever on Soviet equipment and Soviet tactics, unlimited supply of munitions and rations, troop rotation, reserves....

Who is likely to prevail?

[dnivas]

Ukr has a mix of regular forces and right wing militias and sundry territorial defense groups etc each having their own agenda and 'ethics' and some infighting, led by dubiously elected people with corrupt oligarch and US support, trained in UK, US and some NATO countries, on NATO tactics learnt on diverse NATO equipment but applying the same on the battlefield using mostly Soviet equipment designed for markedly different doctrines.

They are up against DNR, LNR militias raging to avenge 14000 kith and kin brutalised and killed over 8 years, supported by RA, Chechen, Wagner units with combined arms, trained forever on Soviet equipment and Soviet tactics, unlimited supply of munitions and rations, troop rotation, reserves....

Who is likely to prevail?

answer is Ukraine on twitter & reddit and (RU allied) on battlefield.

[UBanerjee]

Slowly but surely Russia blows up the NATO trained, armed and funded army in Ukraine.

At this point, with all due respect to John ji's strenuous efforts, everyone is reporting 100-200 KIA per day, with "hundreds more wounded".

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-06-13/

Kyiv has said 100-200 of its soldiers are killed each day, with hundreds more wounded.

[dnivas]

Over 50 Ukrainian generals and officers killed in missile strike – Russia

https://www.rt.com/russia/557428-50-ukr ... ed-russia/

Warships have destroyed a command center with Kalibr cruise missiles, killing dozens of Ukrainian officers, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Sunday.

“More than 50 generals and officers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were killed,” the statement said.

The strike took place near the village of Shirokaya Dacha in Dnepropetrovsk Region.

[Hari Nair]

Another excellent, dispassionate analysis of the ongoing Russian vs Ukrainian tactics, from Colonel Markus Rener of the Austrian Theresan Military Academy.
This analysis focuses on the primary reason why Ukraine is losing: Russia has overwhelming superiority in “Heavy Metal & Rock 'n' Roll”.

Definitely worth a watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sd4xRBu ... Bundesheer

Main points:
• Ukraine is being outgunned by Russia in a ratio of about 10:1, as far as heavy weapons are concerned.
• The volume of firepower from heavy arty – Russia fires around 70,000 rounds/ day vs about 4000-5000 rounds/ day fired by Ukraine, in the Donbass region.
• It is obvious that Russia’s very capable MIC is able to keep pace with this expenditure of rounds, whereas Ukraine is fast running out of stocks.
• The western heavy arty that has been delivered so far to Ukraine has been deployed piecemeal in the frontlines, diluting their effectiveness.
• The rate of induction of western replacements is low and instead of gathering these up to strength for a focused counterattack, the Ukrainians have elected to rush them to the frontlines in small numbers.
• The numbers of heavy arty replacements that are flowing in from the western allies is far too low to make any significant difference in the immediate outcomes of local battles being fought.
• The Russians have been fairly successful in targeting and interdicting the replacement supply lines and intermediate transit depots.
• The state of training on these systems appears to be perfunctory and very rushed, further reducing their effective of use.

[John]

Over 50 Ukrainian generals and officers killed in missile strike – Russia

https://www.rt.com/russia/557428-50-ukr ... ed-russia/

Warships have destroyed a command center with Kalibr cruise missiles, killing dozens of Ukrainian officers, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Sunday.

“More than 50 generals and officers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were killed,” the statement said.

The strike took place near the village of Shirokaya Dacha in Dnepropetrovsk Region.

I would take any RT report with a grain of salt they reported they took out all M777 the day they are delivered couple weeks ago and they make the same claim here.

Yuri claims Su-57 used in front lines.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1538 ... O2lqlyt1yg

[dnivas]

Over 50 Ukrainian generals and officers killed in missile strike – Russia

https://www.rt.com/russia/557428-50-ukr ... ed-russia/

I would take any RT report with a grain of salt they reported they took out all M777 the day they are delivered couple weeks ago and they make the same claim here.

Yuri claims Su-57 used in front lines.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1538 ... O2lqlyt1yg

RT has been more reliable than Ukr MOD so far. we will come back to this in a few weeks and I will ask mod to remove this post if thus turns out to be false.I hope you will do the same as well.


regarding SU57 there has been some articles in some non Russian sources as well a few days ago.

https://www.airdatanews.com/su-57-steal ... n-ukraine/

[Hari Nair]

Over 50 Ukrainian generals and officers killed in missile strike – Russia

https://www.rt.com/russia/557428-50-ukr ... ed-russia/

I would take any RT report with a grain of salt they reported they took out all M777 the day they are delivered couple weeks ago and they make the same claim here.

..And why is that? Is CNN, or perhaps the BBC only preferable to any Russian or their allied media?

I had earlier posted the link to the analysis by the Austrian MIlitary Academy. They have specifically stated that the Russians have resorted to total of over 2600 precision missile strikes with Kalibr and Iskander missiles, with targets being taken out on a daily basis. These missile strikes are having their desired results. Unless one fervently believes in the hope that the Russians cannot have precision missiles - which is perhaps being amateurish.

The specific RT article reports a precision strike on a Command and Control center where officers had gathered for a conference :

“More than 50 generals and officers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were killed. The strike took place near the village of Shirokaya Dacha in Dnepropetrovsk Region. The strike hit the compound where commanders of several Ukrainian units had gathered for a meeting ."

What is so outlandish about this claim, that it needs to be immediately dismissed out-of-hand?

Yes, its a media release and media releases always aim to maximise the effect. I would easily interpret it as a successful strike on a C&C centre with confirmed casualties, including the command and staff elements of that local formation.

Also: the strike on the US M777 arty guns. The RT article does NOT say what you stated. I believe you are misquoting - the article says "The ministry added that Kalibr missiles were also used to destroy 10 M777 howitzers and up to 20 armored vehicles that were recently delivered from the West, and had been stored inside a factory building in the southern city of Nikolayev."

Again, what is so unbelievable about this? I would interpret this as a successful strike on an intermediate transit depot which took out and damaged (estimated) up to 10 M777 arty guns and 20 armoured vehicles.

As other members have pointed out and in the various analysis already posted, we need to be dispassionate and read the writing on the wall. I request you again to kindly go through the first and second analysis I posted, by the Austrian military academy and comment on those? Unless we choose to either ignore it or diss it as well since these do not fit into one's preferred and chosen narrative?

[Cyrano]

While we are discussing force strengths and casualties reported etc, yet another report from Russian channels of Ukr soldiers revealing on video that:

Many AFU military on the front line discover that according to the documents they are just civilians

Ukrainian military registration and enlistment offices deregister military personnel on the front line. The logic is clear - the payments due to them can be appropriated to themselves, and in case of death they can not be taken into account as losses. Solid pluses, but now it will be difficult for the military themselves to prove that they fought at all.
Source: https://t.me/loordofwar/22288

There have been several such witnesses in the past too.