Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

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IndraD
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

Iran hangs British Iranian accused of being a spy, all bets r off it seems
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Sachin,

Just for you.

25 minutes long:

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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

gakakkad wrote:I kind of hope the Germans send there tanks . They are out of service most of the time in any case .
The Russian leadership probably wants to see German tanks too. That will unite the Russian people in support of the war, as nothing else has.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Jay »

Deans wrote:
The Russian leadership probably wants to see German tanks too. That will unite the Russian people in support of the war, as nothing else has.
For me, this has been one of the major surprises of the war. How hesitant Russia/Putin is to publicly say this is not a "special operation" but a war against the West, imposed by the West, and how non committal Russian populace is to take part in this war.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

^^^^^

There is a video on The Duran, with Sergey Karaganov, an advisor to both Yeltsin and now Putin, posted today. Very revealing. He says he saw the crack open up in 1996 (first nato expansion), amd it broke open in 1999 (Kosovo). However, his biggest complaint is that Europe has lost its soul!! No Christianity was his first protest - barely 10 minutes into the interview.

Russian leaders have given up on the collective West. However, Putin and Lavrov have to deal with others and imo cannot be as blunt with their people - yet.

Give it 3 more months.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by V_Raman »

Isnt losing christianity regaining the soul of europe - i mean christianity is not native to europe :?:
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

V_Raman wrote:Isnt losing christianity regaining the soul of europe - i mean christianity is not native to europe :?:
Russian Orthodox Christianity - as I understand the situation - is the oldest form of Christianity. So, it is very conservative. Universally, until 100 years ago only a male Christian had a "soul". They then included Christian women. So, if you are not in either group you cannot have a "soul" (and thus cannot go to "Heaven").

What he seems to be saying is that Europeans are no longer Christians!!!

There is more from that angle.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Navy Secretary Warns U.S. May Run Out of Weapons for Its Defense

Jan 11, 2023
Within the next six months, the United States Navy may need to decide whether to arm itself or Ukraine due to a reported weapons shortage.

The comment was made Wednesday by Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro to a group of reporters on the sidelines of the 2023 Surface Navy Association National Symposium in Arlington, Virginia, Defense One editor Marcus Weisberger reported.

Weisberger tweeted that although the bulk of American weapons given to Ukraine are land weapons and not naval weapons, Del Toro's concerns are shared by others.

"An admiral alluded to the US needing to choose between itself and Ukraine during a panel at the conference," he wrote.

Del Toro is one of the dozens of members of the military, defense industry and Congress at the conference held January 10 to 12 that featured discussions about national defense and security.

His comments follow concerns expressed by James G. Stavridis, a retired U.S. Navy admiral who formerly served as the NATO supreme allied commander for Europe from 2009 to 2013, over the weekend.

Stavridis predicted that a prolonged conflict between Ukrainian defenders and Russian invaders would continue throughout the winter with neither side gaining an upper hand.

"When I put it all together, more war to go," he said. "Ukrainians win it on the ground. Russians winning in the skies."

Mark Cancian, a retired U.S. military officer at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, found Del Toro's reported comments "surprising" due to the Navy being least affected by weapons presently shipped to Ukraine.

"Those weapons are mostly for ground combat," Cancian told Newsweek. "The Navy, particularly in the Western Pacific, needs weapons for air and maritime combat. Although there are a few overlaps, like Harpoons, the tradeoffs are minor.

"Further, funding for arms sent to Ukraine has been in addition to the regular defense budget, so the services have not had to cut programs."

Harpoon anti-ship missiles have been described as probably the most common weapon of its type in the West. First produced by McDonnell Douglas in 1975 and now part of Boeing, over 7,000 have reportedly been produced and cost about $1.5 million each. They are launched from aircraft, trucks and submarines.

The missiles were part of a $1 billion security aid package to Ukraine approved by the Department of Defense last June.

"The provision of [the] Harpoon is not in response to any particular piece of new information," an unnamed DoD official said at the time. "It's a combination of continued consultation with the Ukrainians, and coastal defense still being near the top of their urgent requirements list."

That same month, Harpoon missiles were used by the Ukrainian Navy to strike a Russian vessel on its way toward Snake Island.

Ian Williams, deputy director of the CSIS Missile Defense Project, told Newsweek that it remains unclear which naval weapon systems Del Toro is referring to as most of the weapons that have been provided to Ukraine have been drawn from Army stocks.

He said a diversion of Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) to Ukrainian National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) units could start affecting the U.S. Navy at some point.

"The Seasparrows are probably coming from the Navy, but those are pretty old and have been mostly replaced with the ESSM (Evolved SeaSparrow Missile)," Williams said. "But I think Del Toro's broader point is that the United States needs to ramp up its defense production capacity, which is true. If we're going to become the arsenal of democracy again, we need to scale up."

Newsweek reached out to Stavridis, the U.S. Navy and the Pentagon for comment.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »



Bakhmut surrounded and being shelled non stop, video shows Ukr soldier admitting they lost too many soldiers in Soledar
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Navy Might Have to Choose Between Arming the Service and Aiding Ukraine Due to Ammo Delays, Officials Say
Top Navy leaders are sounding the alarm over what they see as the defense industry's failure to deliver enough ammunition to both meet the demands of the sea service as well as aid shipments to Ukraine.

"I am not forgiving of the fact they're not delivering the ordnance we need," Adm. Daryl Caudle, the service's Fleet Forces commander, told an audience at the annual Surface Navy Association conference held in Arlington, Virginia.
"We're talking about warfighting, national security, and going against a competitor here and a potential adversary that is like nothing we've ever seen, and we keep dillydallying around with these deliveries," Caudle said.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Vayutuvan »

NRao wrote:Russian Orthodox Christianity - as I understand the situation - is the oldest form of Christianity.
Or is it Greek OC?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Details, for those interested:

16 minutes

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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Vayutuvan wrote:
NRao wrote:Russian Orthodox Christianity - as I understand the situation - is the oldest form of Christianity.
Or is it Greek OC?
Well, the current Patriarch seems to be from Turkey!!!!! He is the Archbishop of Constantinople. However, everything he does is in Greek!!

On a serious note, the Orthodox Church has broken up. Greeks have been very critical of the Russians, and Elensky has officially raided (sent troops) the smaller Orthodox churches in UKR!! Elensky has not touched the main UKR Orthodox Church yet.

I think there is a very formal split between "Russia" - in every way one can dream of - and the "West".

Added later:

WRT "split", I think India is taking this G-20 stuff toooooo seriously. India is in the present, while both the "West" and "Russia" (may include "China") are in the future. IMO the West and Russia will listen very patiently to India and then go about doing what they want to do.

The point being India cannot - at the present moment - think of the "Global South" as a focal point. It is not. The focal point is if we can avert WW3. And, India cannot and should not duck that.

I would close the G-20 thread on BR.

_________________________________________________

Try James Tabor on YT. He retired from Univ of North Carolina in 2022.

We can continue in the "Christianity" thread.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by hgupta »

NRao,

Modi is just creating a buffer between the West and Russia to avoid any fallout in not picking a side and forcing either side to restrain themselves for fear of alienating a potential bloc.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Roop »

Cyrano wrote:... So, what is the likelihood that AFU can do a better job this time of holding on to their defensive lines or go beyond and push back the Russians all the way to pre-1991 borders?
The likelihood is close to zero, but we need to ask ourselves a different question : what is the likelihood that Western media will report (regardless of the facts on the ground) that Ukrainians are enjoying brilliant success on the battlefield and Russians are getting their @sszes kicked? That probability is 100% (not 98, not 99, but 100).
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

UK sends Apache helicopters armed with Hellfire missiles to Ukraine

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/u ... d-28955516
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Tanaji »

IndraD wrote:UK sends Apache helicopters armed with Hellfire missiles to Ukraine

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/u ... d-28955516
Challengers, Apaches and soon Patriots.

If Ukraine was doing so well whats the need for these? How do they think they will train the required number of helicopter pilots?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by JE Menon »

NRao wrote:
Russian Orthodox Christianity - as I understand the situation - is the oldest form of Christianity. So, it is very conservative. Universally, until 100 years ago only a male Christian had a "soul". They then included Christian women. So, if you are not in either group you cannot have a "soul" (and thus cannot go to "Heaven").

What he seems to be saying is that Europeans are no longer Christians!!!

There is more from that angle.
Briefly, the Greek Orthodox Christians (from where the entire sect of "Orthodox Christianity" emanates) claim to be the original Christians - on the basis that the first bible was in the Greek language, which was the language of high culture at the time in Roman colonies of which the area that is Israel today (then referred to as Judea, Samaria and Gaza) was one.

In fact, the area was controlled by the Romans who had a sort of tetchy "working relationship" with the Jews who were there before the Romans. Jesus and all his disciples and literally everyone who followed him proximally during his life then were Jews. None of them were literate (i.e. could not read and write), and as far as is known (as per various scholars of the period), none of them could speak Greek. Jesus spoke Aramaic. There is, therefore and unsurprisingly, a claim that the original church was that of Jesus' half-brother James, who was his closest and most adherent follower - rigid in his observance of Jesus' teachings. However, he has gotten short shrift because the religion itself was expanded and created into a semblance of what we know today by Paul (of Tarsus - in today's Turkey - initially a persecutor of Jesus' followers and adherents of his teachings who went on to become the primary promoter).

Paul was also a Jew, and a Roman citizen. He took, along with Peter on a separate track, the teachings of Jesus to Rome - the HQ of the empire of the day. There - over a mix of local politics, intrigue between and among the followers of Jesus, and shrewd integration of commercial interests - the machinations of Peter prevailed, which is why you now have "St. Peter's Basilica" as the main physical Church of the Roman Catholics, whereas in England (for instance) the primary physical church building is St. Paul's Cathedral.

While this was happening, the Greek bible adherents went their own way and impressed themselves in the neighbouring countries (like Cyprus, where there were Greeks) and in Greece proper - which is how Greece became the mother of the Orthodox church, but it had powerful branches in Constantinople & Antioch - all of which later was referred to as the Byzantine Empire. Sometime around the 9th century the Orthodox ideas, spread to Kiev where the king converted and overnight literally mandated all his subjects should be Orthodox. (BTW, Orthodox is Greek for "correct opinion" - i.e. ortho doxia - and "correct practice" is Orthopraxy or "Ortho praxia" which go hand in hand).

They had no choice obviously. From there it slowly spread to Russia proper. Russia itself was born in the "Kievan Rus" - so you understand why they are touchy about "Ukraine". There was no such thing called Ukraine, until the early 1920s, and as a country it lasted if memory serves only for 6 years before being integrated again into the Soviet Union. Some time after the King's (Vladimir, IIRC) diktat at the turn of the first millennium, two Greek priests went into what is now Russian territory and created the script for their language, which is what is now known as the Cyrillic script, and which is why the script is so similar to Greek script.

Added later: PS - I've written the above from memory, so there may be a little difference in the details here and there. Broadly though, that is what happened.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

NRao wrote:Sachin,

Just for you.

25 minutes long:

Part 1: 8iemw-ByQjA
Part 2: 40 minutes (discussion on details of force size and doctrine)



Part 3: 25 minutes

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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Can vouch for "battlefield innovation" - the cycle of IDing a problem, RFI, RFP, dev, test, and battlefield has indeed been very impressive

How Ukraine became a laboratory for Western weapons and battlefield innovation
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by RoyG »

Training and resilience are key. These two Ukrainian soldiers who were flanked looked fatigued and injured before being wiped out. Unable to comply with demands due to being disoriented. Expect this kind of helmet cam footage to be present when we have to intervene more overtly in the neighborhood. Very effective for psyops.

https://twitter.com/Thunder261/status/1 ... 86592?s=19
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

RoyG wrote:Training and resilience are key. These two Ukrainian soldiers who were flanked looked fatigued and injured before being wiped out. Unable to comply with demands due to being disoriented. Expect this kind of helmet cam footage to be present when we have to intervene more overtly in the neighborhood. Very effective for psyops.

https://twitter.com/Thunder261/status/1 ... 86592?s=19
There are increasing no of clips of Ukie soldiers who are 50+. There are also death notices of Ukrainian women soldiers killed in action.
Most of the Ukrainians who are not conscripts are training abroad, so the question Ukraine has to address is weather these soldiers, with a lot of new NATO weapons, will arrive in time to make a difference.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Some data about Russian tank losses as reported in the open source site Oryx. There is a feeling that they under-report Ukrainian losses, but are reasonably accurate on Russian losses - Ukrainian claims are higher but not verified.

Russian tank losses to date are 1614. However:
667 of these are listed as abandoned (no visible damage). Not sure how many were later recovered.
666 (incl abandoned) are from the Soviet era - over 30 years old and taken from reserve stocks.

582 tanks lost in the first month.
Current losses (incl abandoned) are 80/ month.
Current production is 40/month (estimate) and 40 more old tanks being refurbished each month.

The pre war stock of T-72, T-80 & T-90 tanks in active service was 2950 tanks.
They lost about 950 of these (incl. abandoned), rest of the losses were from reserve stocks.
Reserve stocks are 11,000 of which half are estimated to be operational. 666 are lost.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by ks_sachin »

Thanks NRao
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Onr more data point.

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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »



Apparently Bakhmut is surrounded and Russia entering from every direction, in past many towns/cities taken/ given back , abandoned by both sides, so why such an interest in this town now?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Apparently Bakhmut is surrounded and Russia entering from every direction, in past many towns/cities taken/ given back , abandoned by both sides, so why such an interest in this town now?
Bakhmut is the logistics hub for AFU operations in LPR & DPR. If they lose it, it will be no way to hold on to the parts they still control in these 2 republics.

Losing Bakhmut means they have only the last line of defense with Kramatorsk which is their main military base & HQ in easter Ukraine. Of course the Russians will move forward to attack it next. To the west of it, there are only plains until Dneipr river. With all its armour gone and NATO replacement crumbs months away, they risk losing half of Ukraine in a matter of weeks. Any wet dreams of attacking Melitopol and then Crimea will evaporate.

I dont know how many bridges are left across the Dneipr. If they are blown, AFU will be caught between the river and advancing Russian forces and surrender will be the only option.

Anyone saying Soledar & Bakhmut are not important is desperately trying to sidestep the above.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

thanks for the explanation saar for dummies like me intensity of whine from west indicates it was important post...

in another news; Ukrainian air defense shot down Ukrainian helicopter with Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs and his deputy onboard. The helicopter crashed in residential area, killing 16 people, incl 2 children. :eek:
https://twitter.com/VeraVanHorne/status ... gsbW-aYdWQ
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

From the video posted on that Twitter link the fire seems to be over several blocks - where as a helicopter shot in the sky by an AD missile will crash in 1 place and the resulting fire isn't spread over such a wide area. We need to wait for more details and confirmation.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64315594

"It was very foggy and
there was no electricity, and when there's no electricity there are no lights on the buildings
," local resident Volodymyr Yermelenko told the BBC.

Key officials are flown by helicopter across Ukraine at tree-level, but that comes with risks.

All that was recognisable of the helicopter was a door panel and one of its rotors which landed on the roof of a car. Next to it were three bodies covered in foil blankets.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

From a telegram channel:

Bloomberg published a list of equipment donated by Western countries to Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict
<<<
"Bloomberg" states that the following equipment and techniques were donated to Ukraine:

* 410 tanks of Soviet production (T-55 and T-72) in various modifications
* 300 infantry fighting vehicles
* 1100 armored personnel carriers
* 1540 armored cars
* 300 towed howitzers
* A large number of Western-made self-propelled howitzers ("Caesar", "PzH 2000", "Crab" and "Paladin")
* 95 multi-barrel rocket launchers
* 415 scout drones
* 18 Su-25 attack aircraft (14 from Bulgaria and 4 from North Macedonia)
* 20 Mi-17 transport helicopters, originally intended for the Afghan army
>>>

But this list is quite incomplete. Various munitions by the thousands for all these, Starlink units, anti radar missiles, manpads, anti tank missiles like Javelins, nlaws medivac vehicles, rifles, guns, uniforms, rations, medicines, mercenaries and "consultants" ityadi ...

Media has either lost count due to selective memory or is fudging public opinion with incomplete facts to downplay the huge infusion, because perhaps they sense that a defeat might be near.

Meanwhile the Ukronazis: "Yeh dil mangey more!"
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by hgupta »

And how many of those donated are still left and standing? My guess is that most of the items in the donated list are probably gone as combat losses.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Tanaji »

Apparently Ukraine has asked for 300 Leo2/Challenger2/M1 Abrams.

That’s serious firepower. And serious entitledness..
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Combat losses include all the equipment Ukraine has BEFORE the conflict started, which was surely bigger than the list of donations. That and most of this list have been lost in battle.

On top of this, Col MacGregor says based on compiling various sources, the Ukrainians have until now suffered 122K dead, plus 35K missing in action presumed dead and about 300k casualties ie wounded. Russian side has about 16-20K dead and 50K wounded according to him. Ratio of 1:8 or so in favour of the Russians. Take it FWIW.

Not counting civilian deaths.

No wonder people like Ursula, ukr def min and others are unable to keep their mouths shut and end up talking about dead and blood etc. And they quickly backtrack or get smothered.

The sheer scale of destruction Russian forces have unleashed on Ukraine is mind boggling. But even more shocking than that is the west's blind insistance to keep the Ukrainians fighting...

It will be over only when the Russians reach the Western borders of Ukraine. :(
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Tanaji wrote:Apparently Ukraine has asked for 300 Leo2/Challenger2/M1 Abrams.

That’s serious firepower. And serious entitledness..
Getting them across 1000km of Ukr territory to the frontlines without getting hit by the Russians, then having the trained crews to operate them, plus maintenance crews and logistics chain which are different for each type... Unworkable.

There are no ammo stockpiles in Europe for these to last more than a week or two. Once ammo runs out or barrels wear out, they will be abandoned by ukr forces then and there.

German equipment Puma ifvs i think broke down fairly quickly and had to be hauled back for repairs.

Behind such demands, there is clearly a ploy to get NATO to commit troops on the ground one way or the other.

Russians won't mind. They will be looking to grab or buy a few from ukrs to take apart and study/reverse engineer some stuff, test their armour and improve their warheads or ATGMs etc.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by dnivas »

hgupta wrote:And how many of those donated are still left and standing? My guess is that most of the items in the donated list are probably gone as combat losses.
based on some competent analysts, Ukr has already lost 1.5 armies [third army of 2 corps are getting formed] .
Equipment needed to furnish at least 2 new armies. This is in addition to all existing Ukr stocks that was destroyed within the first few months.
Just Poland barking corgi has given ukr more than 200 tanks

Today new news is that 150,000 out of 300,000 qty stocks of 155mm shells in israel have been diverted to poland for transfer to Ukr.

The numbers are crazy.. I am fervently waiting in my lifetime for Russia to do the same to the War Inc countries and use every quote from Blinken and co as they do so.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

May be, just may be, its Putin who set the trap and the west walked into it with eyes open and gender fluid swagger ? ;)
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

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