Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

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IndraD
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

Nuclear war is possible – US commander https://www.rt.com/news/563355-nuclear-war-possible-us/
For the first time since the Cold War, conflict with a nuclear-armed peer is “no longer theoretical,” Admiral Charles Richard said

Navy Admiral Charles Richard, commander of US Strategic Command, declared on Wednesday that for the first time since the end of the Cold War, the US faces the possibility of nuclear war with a peer-level opponent.

Speaking at an Air Force-organized conference in Maryland, Richard claimed that the US would have to prepare to escalate quickly against possible opponents, including to defend the United States itself.

"All of us in this room are back in the business of contemplating…direct armed conflict with a nuclear-capable peer," he said, according to a Pentagon summary of his comments. "We have not had to do that in over 30 years."

This is no longer theoretical.

"Russia and China can escalate to any level of violence that they choose in any domain with any instrument of power worldwide," he continued. "We just haven't faced competitors and opponents like that in a long time."

In the eyes of Moscow, the US is currently locked in a proxy conflict with Russia in Ukraine, and has steadily escalated its commitment of weapons, intelligence and financial assistance to Kiev since Russian troops entered Ukraine in February.

Russia’s current nuclear doctrine allows for the use of nuclear weapons in the event of a first nuclear strike on its territory or infrastructure, or if the existence of the Russian state is threatened by either nuclear or conventional weapons. American doctrine allows for a nuclear first strike in “extreme circumstances to defend the vital interests of the United States or its allies and partners.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated this position on Wednesday, declaring that the Kremlin would “without a doubt use all available means to protect Russia and our people,” should Russian territory be threatened. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also warned that the US was “teetering on the brink” of becoming a direct party in the Ukraine conflict, with Washington risking “a direct collision between nuclear powers.”

Similar warnings have come from within the US too, most notably from former President Donald Trump, who declared on Wednesday that the conflict, which he said “should have never happened,” could “end up being World War III.”
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Raja wrote:No one is pushing Russia to do anything. Having a hostile Ukraine on its border is not the end of the world. Russia does not have the right to have puppet governments installed in it's neighborhood. We don't go around pointing nukes at our neighbors when they start tilting towards our enemies.

No one can blame Ukrainians who want to exit the Russian sphere of influence and find their own destiny. Russia with all it's resources and military is still doing rather poorly because of decades of terrible leadership and endemic corruption. I have never met a Russian who had anything good to say about their government.
Russia is not pointing nukes at anyone. They have only reiterated their doctrine which is that they will consider the use of nukes, when they have no other means of defending their territory. (there are also 3 other circumstances, similar to US, where they will use it).

Ukraine, left to itself, was reasonably close to Russia, even if they elected leaders who wanted to be closer to the West. The problem was with the Maidan coup of 2014, then the replacement of an Anti Russia Poroshenko, with a puppet - Zelenski and a big rise in Neo Nazi / right wing sentiment in Ukraine. That is a big deal for the average Russian, given their losses in WW2.
Ukraine had worse leadership and corruption than Russia. Even now, it has less political freedom than Russia.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Maria »

Cyrano wrote:The prisoners exchange is bizzare to say the least.

Why now? when Russia is facing some degree of external pressure to act towards ending the conflict, including Modi's words, reiterated by Dr SJ at UNGA today.

The released Azov leaders are already giving triumphant interviews and will go right back to atrocities on Russophone people. Ukraine is once again upbeat, Baniansky's chest is >52 inches now. Ukraine will only feel vindicated and entitled , will show zero gratitude.

Kadyrov is very pissed - his men died, got wounded trying smoke them out.

PoW exchange could have waited the end of the war, or at a minimum until the referendums are over and the 4 territories are declared as part of Russia.

What did Russia get in return? A dissident supposedly close to Putin and a far less no of PoWs than what they released to Ukr.

Unless there has been some other quid pro quo out of sight of some mega proportions, why Russia agreed and went through with this is quite inexplicable to me.
The prisoners are to be held in Turkey till the end of the war.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Nukes are not on the table, except on Westerners who have no cards left
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by kit »

NRao wrote:Nukes are not on the table, except on Westerners who have no cards left
tactical weapons are an increasing possibility. America esp seems to egging on Putin to cross the Rubicon.(just like inviting him to invade Ukr., remember those words ? ) , the Europeans of course less keen :lol:

America wins either way., a post nuke Europe would be ripe for a Marshall plan 2.0 ., rebuild decontaminate etc. think lotsa money .... and nothing to lose.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cain Marko »

Doubt Russia will pull the nuke trigger without allowing for its time trusted ally to do his job, Old Man Winter cometh!
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Thanks Maria, I hadn't noted that. Still strange move...
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Cyrano wrote:Thanks Maria, I hadn't noted that. Still strange move...
There is no mention in the Russian media of the Ukrainian opposition leader (supposedly close to Putin) who is part of the deal.
It may just be psy-ops by Ukraine.

Apparently, there are some more Russians to be exchanged. They might not be in a condition where they can be transported,

There are 10 people from Azov and 10 foreign fighters in the list (the 10 & 10 may have some overlap). The problem is that if they are part of the
Ukrainian armed forces (which Azov is), Russia is subject to the Geneva convention and cannot execute them, unless they have participated in
war crimes which require the death penalty.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

The foreign media has shown scenes of Anti govt protests in Russia (against mobilisation) and people trying to leave the country.
Russian media shows lines of eager men outside army reporting centers. Some points of interest:

The Dollar Rouble exchange rate is a good (and difficult to fake) indicator of confidence in the country. If people want to leave the country, the Dollar should strengthen, as people pay more Roubles to buy scarce Dollars. However, the Rouble strengthened from 69= $ to 58 Rb = 1 $.

The anti govt protests were done by an umbrella organization that protests against everything. They numbered a few hundred. Apart from women,
the men protesting looked like typical woke/ openly gay, middle class youth of Moscow/ St Pts. They were unlikely to be called up anyway and
wouldn't last a month in an army unit. Interestingly, the protesters were issued mobilization papers on the spot - they now face 10 years in jail if they don't report for duty after being called up.

4 members of parliament volunteered for duty in Ukraine. I'd like to see an Indian MP - Barring the handful who are ex Army, doing that.

The long lines of people outside mobilization centres appear to be genuine. A fair bit of patriotic spirit, lot of song singing, flag waving etc.
People who do not meet the criteria are volunteering to fight and being turned away. More enthusiasm in areas more away from Moscow & St Petersburg.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by ArjunPandit »

dollar ruble is not straight forward. the trades are a lot less liquid (means less volumes). In illiquid trades the price can vary a lot, esp when it is backed by russian central bank
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by dnivas »

Deans wrote: The anti govt protests were done by an umbrella organization that protests against everything. They numbered a few hundred. Apart from women,
the men protesting looked like typical woke/ openly gay, middle class youth of Moscow/ St Pts. They were unlikely to be called up anyway and
wouldn't last a month in an army unit. Interestingly, the protesters were issued mobilization papers on the spot - they now face 10 years in jail if they don't report for duty after being called up.

...
That was the best news i heard yesterday. These well meaning idiots who have grown on western propaganda will finally learn what it takes to protect their country.

spending some time with the real Russians from the heartland will cure them of the WEF and RFM/VOA/NGO blinkers.

No one in my wife's family has been mobilized but they are pretty gung go. meanwhile SHQ is sulking at home :-)....

tomorrow night we are going to a Russian party in the bay area [which ironically is organized by a fanatic canadian Ukranian]. I am sure I will be seeing a lot of fake moaning and whining abt Putin
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

ArjunPandit wrote:dollar ruble is not straight forward. the trades are a lot less liquid (means less volumes). In illiquid trades the price can vary a lot, esp when it is backed by russian central bank
The Rouble is fully convertable, so it is actually quite liquid. You can buy Dollars at most bank branches.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by dnivas »

Here is a great 45 min documentary of a Russian liberal [Moscow based] who used to hate her Russian passport and considered anything on TV as Russian propaganda slowly change her mind when she went to Donetsk for the first time.
It mirrors what we see with the liberandus and commies and NGO boot lickers in bharat.

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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by vinod »

Lyman front is in deep trouble for Russians. Can they hold back until reinforcements arrive?

Russians cannot expect to make progress until they disrupt NATO intelligence gathering. This would require direct confrontation with those assets on the periphery of Ukraine. How do they handle the satellites? So, Russia has to go all out soon.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

vinod wrote:Lyman front is in deep trouble for Russians. Can they hold back until reinforcements arrive?

Russians cannot expect to make progress until they disrupt NATO intelligence gathering. This would require direct confrontation with those assets on the periphery of Ukraine. How do they handle the satellites? So, Russia has to go all out soon.
Yes. The Russians have been on the defensive throughout the front, for the whole of Sept, except in Bakhmut, where they advanced barely 5km.

Ukraine has managed to sustain the momentum of the Kherson offensive for another 2 weeks and crossed the Oskil river in a number of places, though
Russia had supposedly built a strong defensive line and 1 of the 2 divisions of the 1st Guards Tank army had returned to the area.

At Lyman, Ukraine is pressing from multiple directions and even Russian sources doubt it can be held. If there are Russian reinforcements there, they haven't made a difference. Not much activity from the Russian Air force.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

One of Russia's deputy ministers of Defense has been sacked. He was in charge of logistics, which included mobilization. Talk is of a major purge of FSB and Military intelligence and officers guilty of corruption. The current mobilization had problems - there were a lot of complaints of ineligible people getting called up (because district governors had to meet targets), one lot of rusty rifles issued, non functioning equipment etc. The only redeeming thing, as per social media comments is that the govt is taking quick action to address complaints.

There are 10 deputy ministers for defense, including serving officers who have that additional title.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by sohamn »

Deans wrote:One of Russia's deputy ministers of Defense has been sacked. He was in charge of logistics, which included mobilization. Talk is of a major purge of FSB and Military intelligence and officers guilty of corruption. The current mobilization had problems - there were a lot of complaints of ineligible people getting called up (because district governors had to meet targets), one lot of rusty rifles issued, non functioning equipment etc. The only redeeming thing, as per social media comments is that the govt is taking quick action to address complaints.

There are 10 deputy ministers for defense, including serving officers who have that additional title.
It's like Rahul Gandhi and Congress, blame everyone but yourself.

The buck stops at the top and so does the rot. The first person who needs to be purged is Putin. He can't absolve himself of the tremendous loss of life, material and respect. In a matter of few months the mighty Russian superpower that was supposed to roll over the sub par & corrupt Ukraine had to turn tail and flee. This is Russia's univalent of Vietnam and Iraq but the only difference is Putin will still stay at the helm without any accountibility.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by ks_sachin »

Not sure Russia was ever a military superpower if we take nukes out of the equation.

That said even the the USSR was a questionable superpower if any vector other that military tech and nukes were in consideration.

Even till the fall of the Berlin was there was not a factory in the USSR that manufactured womens sanitary products I have read.

Despite being a socialist state whether it was truly “for the people is questionable “.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

description by Deans sir is scary (and trustworthy). Looks like if Poland, Ukr army advances under NATO guidance they can easily take over Moscow by evening. Also one wonders if Russia's nukes even explode.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

IndraD wrote:description by Deans sir is scary (and trustworthy). Looks like if Poland, Ukr army advances under NATO guidance they can easily take over Moscow by evening. Also one wonders if Russia's nukes even explode.
The problem is with Russians believing the reports their MOD puts out. (Ukraine exaggerates as much, but the problem now affects Russia more).

At the start of the Kharkov offensive of Ukraine, even amateur analysts on Youtube spoke of 4 Ukrainian brigades, in the area where they attacked, incl 2 newly arrived ones. The success of that offensive was explained away as `Ukrainians punched air. Russians withdrew as they could not defend everything, Ukraine took 3000 KIA and 6000 WIA from air strikes and artillery. One of the brigades moved to Kharkov, was from Bakhmut, which would now fall.. etc

In reality, the Ukrainian brigades have continued an offensive for 3 weeks. They have no problem with supplies. They have crossed the Oskil river in multiple places and a Russian Guards Tank division is unable to contain the (allegedly) broken 4 Ukrainian brigades - which supposedly suffered more than 50% casualties and were out of supplies.
Similarly, the attack towards Lyman is being made by Ukrainian units which have suffered (according to Russian briefings) over 100% casualties, before they went on the offensive. They have crossed a river that the Russians were unable to do for the last 3 months. Even the Russian reports mention resistance by LPR militia more often than the Russian army units, newly arrived to defend Lyman.
The depleted Ukraine force at Bakhmut has still held off the Wagner group attacking them.

Russians are behaving like the Germans on the Eastern Front in WW2 - believing that Ukraine is running out of reserves and about to collapse, so there is no need to seriously mobilize. Ukraine is fighting total war. Russia hasn't even mobilised the population of Crimea. 2.5 Million Crimeans have just raised 1 brigade.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

ks_sachin wrote:Not sure Russia was ever a military superpower if we take nukes out of the equation.

That said even the the USSR was a questionable superpower if any vector other that military tech and nukes were in consideration.

Even till the fall of the Berlin was there was not a factory in the USSR that manufactured womens sanitary products I have read.

Despite being a socialist state whether it was truly “for the people is questionable “.
Leaving aside nukes, my guess is at the regiment level, the best Russian units are as good as the best in NATO. However, the average regiment
is worse than a NATO (or IA) unit, because of inexperienced NCO's (and no JCO equivalent) and poorer quality of equipment.

The Red army of the USSR was only 50% ethnic Russian. The Russian army is about 90% Russian, so there's a much higher sense of nationalism. The
average Russian soldier will probably be willing to die for his country. Weather he will die for the people of the Donbass remains to be seen.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by KrishnaK »

Deans wrote:The Red army of the USSR was only 50% ethnic Russian. The Russian army is about 90% Russian, so there's a much higher sense of nationalism. The average Russian soldier will probably be willing to die for his country. Weather he will die for the people of the Donbass remains to be seen.
Oh no !! The posts on this forum would have me believe that most Russians were convinced about NATO encirclement and the inevitability of having to attack Ukraine.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by vinod »

https://www.theamericanconservative.com ... osing-war/

Another perspective to what is happening.

One thing is for sure Russia cannot lose this war. At what point do you think US will stop supplies to Ukraine and end war? Russia can't end this war by itself. A ruined Ukraine is going to be there forever.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Jay »

Deans wrote:
Leaving aside nukes, my guess is at the regiment level, the best Russian units are as good as the best in NATO.
This is contrary to everything we have seen from the Russian's in this special operation. It has become apparent that the myth of Russian soldier is only that, a myth. I have no idea how Putin let this rot happen and did not realize the enormous gap between a Russian soldier/unit and a NATO unit.

Deans wrote: The Red army of the USSR was only 50% ethnic Russian. The Russian army is about 90% Russian, so there's a much higher sense of nationalism. The
average Russian soldier will probably be willing to die for his country. Weather he will die for the people of the Donbass remains to be seen.
So if even people from Russia and Russian army do not see this special operation worthy to fight for their lives and means, no amount of us trying to say other wise matters.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

KrishnaK wrote:
Deans wrote:The Red army of the USSR was only 50% ethnic Russian. The Russian army is about 90% Russian, so there's a much higher sense of nationalism. The average Russian soldier will probably be willing to die for his country. Weather he will die for the people of the Donbass remains to be seen.
Oh no !! The posts on this forum would have me believe that most Russians were convinced about NATO encirclement and the inevitability of having to attack Ukraine.
They are concerned about NATO expansion. Weather that meant war with Ukraine was an inevitable step, I don't know.

There are views on Russian social media during the war, which I think reflect the opinion of a lot of Russians:
- Russia rushed into war without giving diplomacy a chance to win some concessions. At the least, people of Donbass could have been
protected, if Russia insisted on Minsk-2 being honored.
- There was clearly no preparation for a long war. If a 1 week long `dash to Kiev' did not work, there was no plan B.
- If they had to go to war, why in this half assed way, with a fraction of its resources ?
- Russian army is holding back from fully backing the DPR/LPR militia, by giving up ground (civilians left behind risk reprisals) and not taking the
same risks in battle as the local militia.
- During WW2, Both Stalin's sons fought. One died as a POW (Stalin refused to exchange him). His successor. Kruschchev, had a son KIA. All politburo and senior party members visited the front and their children served at the front (as did celebrities). Putin has not visited the front, but went to the Vostok exercises at the other end of the country.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Russia has always understood that compared to Western Europe, it has a problem with the quality of its men and weapons. It sought to compensate by having more men and firepower than the enemy. In Putin's time, there has been a serious attempt to reform the army - only 25% are conscripts, but this has not given the desired results.

That said, what is NATO's record this century ? It failed in Afghanistan (after trying twice as long as Russia). Failed in Iraq-2. Did not achieve their
objective in Syria (while the Russians largely did). Did regime change in Libya, which left the country worse off than before. In Mali, after years of failed counter insurgency operations, Mali asked for Russia's Wagner group to take over from France. It did succeed in Kosovo after bombing Serbia into the stone age. NATO army units have not fought any peer, for us to be able to compare. Reluctance to fight (e.g. counter insurgency in Afghanistan) is also an indicator of an army's effectiveness.

In the Ukraine war, Russian air assault forces did perform as well as a NATO elite force in the attempted capture of Gostomel airport. In close quarter urban combat in Mariupol and Lisichansk, Russian infantry defeated a larger force of defending Ukrainians (there are hardly any instances in military history of that happening). They were let down by a poor planning, inadequate numbers, maintenance of equipment and intel. Its the first time Russia is fighting a war outnumbered from the start.

In the Ru Air force, Russian pilots have all done 100+ (mostly 200+) sorties, which no NATO country's current set of pilots have done. Many of the aircraft, like the old SU-25's would have ben grounded by a NATO country, from battle damage and age related airframe stress, but have had a very low Loss / 100 sorties ratio. I would therefore not doubt their ability, courage and willingness to fight.

In this war, the Russian army hasn't yet fought to defend Russia. They will have a chance to do that after 30th Sept. So far, the Ukrainian army has shown a greater willingness to die defending the Donbass, than the Russian army has in liberating it.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by rajkumar »

sohamn wrote:
Deans wrote:One of Russia's deputy ministers of Defense has been sacked. He was in charge of logistics, which included mobilization. Talk is of a major purge of FSB and Military intelligence and officers guilty of corruption. The current mobilization had problems - there were a lot of complaints of ineligible people getting called up (because district governors had to meet targets), one lot of rusty rifles issued, non functioning equipment etc. The only redeeming thing, as per social media comments is that the govt is taking quick action to address complaints.

There are 10 deputy ministers for defense, including serving officers who have that additional title.
It's like Rahul Gandhi and Congress, blame everyone but yourself.

The buck stops at the top and so does the rot. The first person who needs to be purged is Putin. He can't absolve himself of the tremendous loss of life, material and respect. In a matter of few months the mighty Russian superpower that was supposed to roll over the sub par & corrupt Ukraine had to turn tail and flee. This is Russia's univalent of Vietnam and Iraq but the only difference is Putin will still stay at the helm without any accountibility.
Well said. Also the only thing Putin manged to achieve was to drive Finland & Sweden into the arms of NATO
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

This war did not pan out as Russia planned. Of course they have planned for contingencis, that's why when Hostomel failed to crumble Kiev regime they invaded large tracts of Ukraine and almost succeeded in the negotiations in March in Turkey. BoJo jumped in with Washington backing and scuttled it.
Yes there have been several lacunae in Russian planning, logistics, intelligence assessments, mobilisation and tactics.

After 6 months let's also look at where Ukraine and the west stand:
- min 100k dead, another 150k wounded
- Navy, most of Air Force, AD systems, S300s, MRLS, armour, IFVs gone
- foreign legion took heavy losses, more and more contractors/mercenaries and being roped in
- western hyped systems like javelins, himars, m777s, Caesars demystified, colossal equipment losses.
- 10s of thousands became PoWs.
- NATO c&c with 8+ years of training, prepared défenses, supplies, 80 Billions spend have not really repulsed Russian invasion.
- loss of territory the size of Austria, 8-10 million people, most fertile lands in the world, a big industrial capacity approx 30% of Ukraine GDP, 75% of black sea coastal access all lost
- Ukraine's mil industry gone, equipment, training facilities, one of world's biggest N plants gone. Economy in tatters, 5-6 million population gone as refugees, electricity grid, oil refineries, fertilizer plants, steel plants, ship building gone.
- NATO equipment and ammo levels depleted to alarming levels

-EU economies struggling, energy crisis with the worst yet to come. Even assuming hypothetically Russia withdraws, these cannot be undone and EU will plunge into recession and the energy crisis will continue for years.

So while one can feel gloomy or vindicated that Russia hasn't achieved all that it set out to, Ukr and NATO have nothing to feel good or congratulate themselves. Their policies and actions have been disastrous for themselves and devastating for Ukraine. There is no exit ramp in sight.

BTW, if anyone thinks NATO troops will perform much better than Russian forces, please see some accounts of experienced fighers who returned after stints in Ukr foreign legion.

Donbass militias were already tough opponents. Russian forces will be tougher. Chechen and Wagner units will be terror for them. How motivated will NATO troops be - if it comes to that - while fighting for a corrupt, dysfunctional propped up Ukrainien regime with néonazis for company I'll let you imagine.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Cyrano ji, I too believe that irrespective of the outcome of the war, Ukraine is the biggest loser in terms of damage to its economy.

It's a strategic victory for US in that they did regime change in a country (Ukraine) without its people being aware of it and have made thousands
of Ukrainians die to weaken Russia, while making it a permanent client state of NATO.

I made a statement that the average Russian unit was inferior to its NATO counterparts. I'd like to clarify that with an example.
I'm referring to the best NATO countries (US, UK, Germany. Not Turkey, Portugal, Poland etc).

Consider a US vs. a Russian tank regiment fighting it out in a hypothetical exercise. Same no of tanks & assume a T-90 is equal to a M-1 Abrams.
I don't see a difference between the fighting spirit and weapon system knowledge of both sides. However:

The US regiment is likely to reach the engagement with fewer breakdowns. What starts as 45 vs 45 tanks, becomes say 44 vs 36.
US crews would have double the training hours compared to the Russians and perhaps fire triple the no of shells in training. I would assume they have more simulator time too and better quality of exercises (more varied opponents).
Shells have a 10% lower chance of being duds.
All this gives a big advantage to NATO units, which can only be offset by superior Russian numbers (which has not been the case in Ukraine).
There is also better recon, battlefield communication, medical evacuation etc, which gives a good NATO unit more advantages.

I'm looking at this in the context of what IA can learn from it. For e.g Javelin ATGMs seem to be overhyped. The largest source of Russian tank
losses are breakdowns. IA regiments, with crews having years of experience with their tanks and a tradition of jugaad, would probably have had far fewer breakdowns.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by mody »

Cyrano, the 100K dead and 150K wounded is just Russian propaganda. As per Russian reports, the UKA units currently fighting and advancing quite well, have already suffered more than 100% casualties more than 2 weeks back.

The air defense units in Ukraine are still performing well and recently Russian's have lost aircrafts in the conflict.

One of the biggest learning lessons from this war is that currently the defensive weapons, be it air defense or anti armour etc. have the scales tipping in their favour. Air superiority can achieved by having a very robust, mobile fully networked and multi-layer air defense system. Apart from this, all the force multipliers like ISR and EW assets are very important. ISR assets too need to span the entire spectrum from small UAV based for local ops to space based ones and everything in between.

Currently almost no airforce in the world would be able to carry out full scale ops against a near peer adversary, who has a decent, fully networked, distributed, multi-layered air defense network. Imagine a France or a UK loosing a couple of dozen aircrafts and pilots over a 2-3 week conflict.
Loss of each aircraft, with all the latest weapons and the pilot would be something like 150 million dollar loss. Sustaining full scale ops for more than 3-4 weeks would be impossible for any force in the world against a near peer adversary and this includes India and China as well. A loss of 3-4 squadrons worth of aircrafts over a 3-4 week full blown conflict would have a serious psychological effect.

Similar is the case for armour. Multitude of drones from HALE to small swarm drones, would make like hell for any armoured thrust. The small swarm drones and loitering ammunition would be able to overwhelm a whole of local air defense systems, operating in hostile enemy territory. Apart from this, the traditional defenses against armour like artillery systems, armed helos and infantry with very good 3rd gen and above ATGMs would also need to be overcome.

Except for USA, China, India and Russia almost no other country on their own would be able to sustain a full war beyond 3-4 weeks against a near peer adversary, on their own, as of now.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Deans ji,
I will defer to your knowledge in the type of situations you describe. You are most probably right.

If such a confrontation happened in Ukraine, a battleground very different from Iraq or Afghanistan, I suspect we will discover many shortcomings and problems with US forces as well, may be not the same as Russia but they will have their own set.

US logistics chain will also be very heavy and more extensive ie complex compared to Russia. US troops are used to and expect a different level of comfort and support. Which could make them vulnerable to deep strikes and disruptions may bog them down a lot more due to aversion to casualties compared to Russia.

Overall I feel it will be a fairly even match and stalemate.

I haven't followed the Russia vs US confrontations in Syria. If you have, does it bear out what I say above? From what I gather, US forces haven't been hugely successful against Russian forces there. What were the reasons?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by YashG »

As it is - Russia will not be able to turn around the course of this war.

So what gives?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Mody ji, (with a name like that, ji is inevitable :) )
The Ukr casualties figures are from a few weeks ago as per experts like Scott Ritter and a few others. Since then, Kherson and Kharkiv Izyum offensives happened where Ukr took lot of losses. While no one knows the real figures, the way Ukr holds positions and Russia shells them to dust before advancing - this model of warfare will surely leads to lot more Ukr casualties.

I agree with your point about conflicts between near peer adversaires. But does Ukr vs Russia qualify as one without NATO supplied weapons? Does it qualify despite NATO supplied weapons on which Ukr troops are hastily 'trained'?

The past 6 months have seen different types of warfare. SF drops, long marching columns to invade, urban fights around Mariupol, positional manoeuvres, hold vs she'll and advance type grinding engagements etc. Then attacks, retreats and counter attacks now.

The types of troops engaged on both sides have also varied. AFU regular and marin units, RW militias, territorial defense forces, paramilitary, foreign legion companies, NATO intelligence, C&C etc from Ukr. Some of this has shown spectacular successes like Moskva sinking, Crimea airbase attack, Kherson Izyum retake etc. But these remain point events - the overall picture for Ukr-NATO is not great.

Similarly Donbass militias, Chechens, Wagner, regular RA units etc. have made major successes, Mariupol, Luhansk, Popasna, Severodonetsk, Zhapo, Kherson etc, above all they have taken 20% territory and evicting them completely is impossible now.

Tactically both sides have scored. Our tendency is to condense and simplify the war into 'this side or that is better/ is winning or losing ' to then forecast what will happen next. The reality is more complex and nuanced. Both sides are learning from the experience and adapting, evolving as it unfolds.

There is also the political and economic war going on which shapes each side's initiatives and plans. Russia has lot of good reasons to draw out the war because its goals are not 'bomb Ukraine to stone age and kill em all' .

My point is, it doesn't hold reason to call Russia is corrupt, incompetent, it's equipment sucks therefore it's losing the war. That could be an American view. And even then flawed. Russia is taking a Clausewitzian approach.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Yash ji, what is the course of this war according to you?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Dilbu »

Russia is just waiting for winter to come in and that will add another angle to the conflict. Everyone including mango european sitting at home with or without his heating on, will have a different perspective by then.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by ks_sachin »

Dilbu wrote:Russia is just waiting for winter to come in and that will add another angle to the conflict. Everyone including mango european sitting at home with or without his heating on, will have a different perspective by then.
That may be so but I am not sure that was the calculation at the start of the conflict. This thread is to understand the strategy and tactics and despite some significant deviations there has been some very good insights into aspects of the Russian tactical approach. The usual suspects - you know who - please take a bow. Been interesting reading your posts and mulling over your insights.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Dilbu »

There is no doubt that the Russian plans did not survive the first few weeks of war. Now it is running on plan C or D by the look of things.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by YashG »

Cyrano wrote:Yash ji, what is the course of this war according to you?
After the recent ukn'n offensive, this war has gone into a lot of unknown territory.

All along there was/is only one way this war can end and that would be Ukrainian capitulation. If west is not going to let that course play then I dont see any other way. I do see a far greater possibility of tactical nukes, if that course is not allowed to play.

So something has to give in.

a. Winters break the european will (But it will still not end US assistance to Ukn'n govt.) b. Mobilization unravels Ukraine (But arms & ammo will still not appear overnight) c. Putin's fall - West will try to ensure in that situation putin loses control over nuke trigger

a,b -> Stalemate / Partial russian Victory. c-> end of russian empire.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

mody wrote:Cyrano, the 100K dead and 150K wounded is just Russian propaganda. As per Russian reports, the UKA units currently fighting and advancing quite well, have already suffered more than 100% casualties more than 2 weeks back.

The air defense units in Ukraine are still performing well and recently Russian's have lost aircrafts in the conflict.

Currently almost no airforce in the world would be able to carry out full scale ops against a near peer adversary, who has a decent, fully networked, distributed, multi-layered air defense network. Imagine a France or a UK loosing a couple of dozen aircrafts and pilots over a 2-3 week conflict.

Except for USA, China, India and Russia almost no other country on their own would be able to sustain a full war beyond 3-4 weeks against a near peer adversary, on their own, as of now.
Russia has officially said the number of Ukrainian KIA is some 61000. Add maybe 2000 foreign fighters. That would be the max number.
Its fits earlier Ukrainian statements that they were losing (KIA) between 100-300 / day.

There was a study (will try to share the article) by a think tank that suggested that no NATO air force (excluding US) would have done any better
against UKraine's air defenses, as Russia has done. They can do better, only with with an unacceptably higher loss rate.

I don't think India can sustain a war of this intensity for beyond 6 weeks. The constraints are ammunition . In many critical areas, we will run out of ammo in 2 weeks. Also, engine /body fatigue of old aircraft, lack of spares for armored vehicles etc. Besides, political pressure to compromise, if the price of Onions or petrol goes up by Rs 10. The single biggest lesson for India in this war is IMO, to be self reliant.
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