Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[YashG]

Fall of Ochertyne and Novobakhmutivka is showing first signs of Ukraine running out of men. Till many many months there was the talk of ukraine falling short of men but the problem had not manifested yet. Ukraine had defended everywhere. But the first signs might be there now.

These settlements fell more because of there were no reserves and less because of low ammunition. So 61Bn will solve the ammo problem atleast for 5-6 months but not the 'men' problem.

This problem will exacerbate a lot in days to come. There are rumors of Russia introducing +10 brigades in theatre.

[srai]

^^^
One example of how much losses Russians are incurring for incremental gains.

Ukrainian troops destroyed over 300 units of equipment near Novomykhailivka

20 April, 2024

…
The battle for the small village, which used to be home to only 1,500 people, began in late fall.

To seize this settlement, Russians concentrated 10 brigades and regiments totaling up to 30,000 soldiers on a narrow section of the front line.

“And every day Russians throw tanks and armored combat vehicles into the attack, sparing no infantry. We have destroyed 314 units of enemy equipment,” the military said.

Novomykhailivka is located about 12 kilometers south of Mariinka, which Russian forces have been trying to capture since 2014.
…

This image shows all the destroyed Russian armor around the Novomykhailivka village.


That village was flattened and eventually overrun by the Russians but it was achieved at a great cost (both equipment and personnel).

[YashG]

^^^
Exactly sometimes I'm amazed at the amount of russian materiel that is destroyed. I just assume someone is doing a bean counter for these. It does seem that Ukraine had a very favorable edge in FPVs in last 5 months.

[srai]

Let’s see how quickly aid ammunition reach the frontlines and what sort of immediate impact it will have.

…
STORING WEAPONS IN EUROPE
According to a U.S. military official, the U.S. would be able to send certain munitions “almost immediately” to Ukraine because storehouses exist in Europe.

Among the weapons that could go very quickly are the 155 mm rounds and other artillery, along with some air defense munitions. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss preparations not yet made public.

A host of sites across Germany, Poland and other European allies also are helping Ukraine maintain and train on systems sent to the front. For example, Germany set up a maintenance hub for Kyiv’s Leopard 2 tank fleet in Poland, near the Ukrainian border.

The nearby maintenance hubs hasten the turnaround time to get needed repairs done on the Western systems.
…

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-weap ... bf47254ece

[srai]

After recent €50 billion in economic aid by EU, there are now plans for a 5-year €100 billion military aid package by NATO (EU only).

…

Meanwhile, US military $60 billion aid package still stuck in US Congress politics.

NATO EU stepping out of US shadow. Over the years, US has become an unreliable partner.

The US $61 billion military aid will get Ukraine through 2024. However, this sort of US aid may be the last one given how difficult it was to get the bill through the divided US congress.

It provides NATO EU around a year to make its pledge of 5-year €100 billion military aid a reality by early 2025.

Then it becomes a matter of who outlasts whom over the next 5-years. Defense budgets increasing. MIC shifting gears. Who ends up with an upper-hand?

[Manish_P]

^ Is the Netherlands 4 Billion Euros aid part of the 50 billion EU aid or an addition?

[srai]

^^^

AFAIK, EU €50 billion is for economic aid/loans spread over 4 years. EU made up of 27 countries.

Then the planned NATO Europe €100 billion will be for military aid/loans spread over 5 years. NATO Europe has 30 member countries.

So far each NATO European nation has been donating their own billions haphazardly. If we add up all the individual countries military donation till now, it will be quite a lot. One can assume that the €100 billion is meant to combine funds from donor NATO European countries into a “basket” and make it more predictable over many years.

With each NATO European members increasing their defense budget to a minimum 2% of their GDP, €100 billion military donations over 5-years easily doable. This is around €3.3 billion (€660 million/year) per country (if divided equally over 30 countries). Obviously G7 nations like Germany, France, Italy and UK will contribute more based on relative GDP percentage.

Also, one thing to remember is that 70-90% of “aid” money remains within their own home country. So really each of the countries are spending on their own MIC, contractors and other beneficiaries. For example, a tank donated is manufactured/refurbished in the donor country or Union along with all the auxiliary support equipment and ammunition.

[Manish_P]

..
With each NATO European members increasing their defense budget to a minimum 2% of their GDP, €100 billion military donations over 5-years easily doable...

Understood

Also, one thing to remember is that 70-90% of “aid” money remains within their own home country. So really each of the countries are spending on their own MIC, contractors and other beneficiaries. For example, a tank donated is manufactured/refurbished in the donor country or Union along with all the auxiliary support equipment and ammunition.

Quite so. However the money remains within the country only temporarily as the finished product is still given out. If/when the home country needs the money (for something else) or the product they have to arrange for the funds again from their reserves/earnings. Still got the gist of the operation. Thanks.

Wish our fledgling MIC (private and sarkari both) would get a sizeable chunk of the action. Artillery shells, Howitzers, Vehicles, Ancillary equipment... War is such a big business.

[Tanaji]

Looks like US has finally given long range 300 km ATACMS to Ukraine and these were used for strikes against a Russian airbase in Crimea.

Wonder how many are been given as these systems are quite old.

[drnayar]

After recent €50 billion in economic aid by EU, there are now plans for a 5-year €100 billion military aid package by NATO (EU only).

…

Meanwhile, US military $60 billion aid package still stuck in US Congress politics.

NATO EU stepping out of US shadow. Over the years, US has become an unreliable partner.

The US $61 billion military aid will get Ukraine through 2024. However, this sort of US aid may be the last one given how difficult it was to get the bill through the divided US congress.

It provides NATO EU around a year to make its pledge of 5-year €100 billion military aid a reality by early 2025.

Then it becomes a matter of who outlasts whom over the next 5-years. Defense budgets increasing. MIC shifting gears. Who ends up with an upper-hand?

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-d ... first-time

Defence spending with UK industry by the Ministry of Defence has topped £25 billion for the first time, official statistics have revealed.

[drnayar]

Degrading Russian capabilities seems to be NATOs primary aim and they seem to be achieving this without firing a shot.

I think it will be open season for regime change in Russia once it / if happens.

Next is China.

Only way the former does not happen is China supporting Russia overtly. They could both win. They can flip the war and let the western countries spend themselves to oblivion just like the erstwhile USSR.

The effects are already there to see in western countries, with declining standard of living everywhere.