Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

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drnayar
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by drnayar »

Haridas wrote:https://youtu.be/TTyXQLPwxro
India has 14,000 Brahmos Midsiles

For those who know me: No kidding on the numbers.

Chinkies shivering inspite of sipping bitter chai.
Quite likely, thats how inventories are built up over the years. there are currently 3 production lines in full steam [?more] , there was a decision that brahmos exports would happen only after all services had received their "required numbers". The costs have been coming down with numbers, amortization and increased indigenisation of different seekers and engines . This is a priority acquisition for the forces and the funding has been constant. Also to keep in mind the first brahmos came into service in June 2007 !
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Kersi »

Aditya_V wrote:14000 looks to be exaggerated, Air launched ones might 200-300, ship launched ones ~ 500, Navy Coastal defense ~100, even considering reloads that would ~ 13000 Land launched Land attack variants, does anyone think we 1000 Launchers for Brahmos?
I have not yet heard of Brahmos coastal batteries. There was some chatter about some mobile launchers, somewhere along Gujarat coast
Aditya_V
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Aditya_V »

Kersi wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:14000 looks to be exaggerated, Air launched ones might 200-300, ship launched ones ~ 500, Navy Coastal defense ~100, even considering reloads that would ~ 13000 Land launched Land attack variants, does anyone think we 1000 Launchers for Brahmos?
I have not yet heard of Brahmos coastal batteries. There was some chatter about some mobile launchers, somewhere along Gujarat coast
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news ... s-missiles
However, IN sources told Jane’s on 12 August that two NGMMCBs worth an estimated total of INR13.5 billion (USD189.9 million) would be based at INS Trata: the navy’s missile battery base in Mumbai responsible for defending a large swathe of India’s western coast.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by srin »

The army also has a couple of regiments. But even then, 14000 number seems to have an added zero, given the cost.
That's a pity, because it is a perfect shock and awe weapon to be used in the early hours of a war.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by YashG »

JTull wrote:
YashG wrote:We should definitely have 14K brahmos but not via Brahmos Aerosapce. It has 49% russian equity, so money goes to russia.
It is not like we wire 49% of gross costs to Russia. Only share of net profit, and costs of any components sourced from Russia! All R&D, including for import substitution of Russian components, are deductible expenses.
Agreed. but if we're talking of 10k kind of scale whatever little that will add up will be susbstantial cost. (even going by one video from Brahmos CEO, import substitution has now reached in high 90s) By now perhaps DRDO knows enough how to replicate brahmos. Its just that we are not chinese who flout rules in bad faith.
Karan M
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Karan M »

drnayar wrote:
Haridas wrote:https://youtu.be/TTyXQLPwxro
India has 14,000 Brahmos Midsiles

For those who know me: No kidding on the numbers.

Chinkies shivering inspite of sipping bitter chai.
Quite likely, thats how inventories are built up over the years. there are currently 3 production lines in full steam [?more] , there was a decision that brahmos exports would happen only after all services had received their "required numbers". The costs have been coming down with numbers, amortization and increased indigenisation of different seekers and engines . This is a priority acquisition for the forces and the funding has been constant. Also to keep in mind the first brahmos came into service in June 2007 !
Doesn't matter when it was started. A quick look at our budgets would tell you the reality. Let's not become like Pakdef, seeking imaginary strength to make up for real concerns.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Karan M »

Cyrano wrote:Are we having any plans for about a cheap scooter motor plastic wings attack drone à la Geran ? They were a surprise success in Ukraine. Anti a/c, S300, fighters none had an effective response to them.

Image

Sorry couldn't get the image to display. URL: https://www.arabnews.com/sites/default/ ... drone3.jpg

The full article:
https://arab.news/z6mbk
After a while, the Ukrainians adapted with western help, & they are no longer as effective as they originally were.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by fanne »

I had posted a similar post last year on Brahmos, when Chinese expert had said that India had 14,000 Brahmos. That was followed by less-known (but more credible blog than Siachin should be given to Pak gentleman), where he had concluded that based on our publicly declared manufacturing capacity, 14,000 number is very much possible.
Again, I do not have any inside info (Rajnath Ji does not have my personal number to brief me), but based on pure logic
1. We want to stop the Chinese in LAC in case of hot war, or deter them from a hot war - for that you need the capability. IAF is not moving fast with acquiring aircraft (their new jhunjhuna after MMRCA is MRFA and there are 26 other letters in English language, they will not run out of Jhunjhunas), IA loves Athos and will not move fast enough with other credible desi alternatives (endless rounds of tests). But we have a missile, that in great numbers can make a difference, we can manufacture it locally, why wouldn't we? Unless everyone is an idiot and only smart people are the one reading this
2. The cost of sale is different than cost of manufacturing. Manufacturing incidentally is done by govt agencies (mostly), where the driver may not be profit, they can very well deliver at cost (or some very less margin per missile, but huge given the volume)
3. Not all cost are declared, as not all NOTAM result in missile test (or is it?) and as all missile test are of Prithvi (it used to be Trishul, but I guess the keyboard with these alphabets must have worn out)
4. What could be a giveaway is personnel, you need people to man and fire them, one has to dig
5. The current dispensation is confident about handling China and TSP, it can be bluff or can be backed by hard power (in spite of our issues with planes, artillery) . Brahmos is fully indigenous, locally manufactured and does not have personnel issues (like without Hammer, Rafale is useless, cannot be used, then why buy it). Logic says it will be manufactured in great numbers, most likely without grand announcements.
ernest
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by ernest »

For a penny pinching defence bureaucracy, the way we test Brahmos every month, the numbers should be good enough for comfort.

<below stuff is totally unofficial, so don't attach any worth to it. more around what we *should* have>
I was talking to someone who is well versed with defence industry in India, and it came around that unofficial estimates are to have 50k "cruise missiles of all kind" to keep Chinese in check. Since Brahmos is not exactly cheap, this is why Nirbhay is crucial to build huge numbers of cheap and capable missiles. This 50k number includes light cruise missiles launched from aircraft including the category NASM-SR and some high end loitering munitions fall in. A number of small turbofan engines like Manik, PTAE-7 and newer versions are critical to achieve this number.

Before anyone jumps on me for posting stuff that is absolutely unrealistic, let me tell you that the horizon for this "äspirational" plan will extend to 2050s. Which is common in Indian defence procurement. The Artillery plans FARP, etc made around Kargil will be realized close to 30-35 years after inception. The 42 squadron number is nowhere to be realized. So, take this unofficial plan for what it is worth.

The 14000 numbers of Brahmos (out of 50k CMs) seems to be the planned number that we want to maintain in our inventory, which will include future versions like Brahmos-NG. Within this context, the number seems reasonable, and we seem to be on track to get there before 2040. The lack of any other cruise missile in production, like pointed out by others, implies that we'll go full throttle with Brahmos production.

If you think 50k CM is an unrealistic number, remember that India will be a way bigger economic power than it is now. Plus, we'll have domestic manufacturing of all missiles and components in a few years.

I am just putting khayali pulao of what the numbers might look like:

14,000 : Brahmos, all version including NG, but not hypersonic
10,000 : Nirbhay/ITCM variants. Though cheaper than Brahmos, the production will take time to ramp up
5,000-10,000 : NASM - SR/MR and variants. Cheaper and smaller substitute for Nirbhay for smaller targets
5,000-10,000 : Air Launched loitering munitions with turbojet/turbofan. like CATS Hunter
5000 : Indigenous LFRJ based missile, will replace/supplement Brahmos

edit:
The estimate I have for Brahmos numbers is >3000. This accounts for multiple lines (like drnayar pointed above) and 20 years of ramping up of production. A new line is supposed to produce 100 missiles per year according to news
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... -per-year/
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Haridas »

JTull wrote:14,000 Brahmos? And we believe it?

This is silly.

At $3-5million a pop, that's 42-70 billion dollars. Someone is extrapolating massively. 3-4000 will also be extraordinary.
One can't fight data.
How it happened is another story.

Now that it is in open, I can say what I couldn't earlier.
14,000 is correct.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Haridas »

nachiket wrote:Are we now supposed to believe numbers cited by random YT handles claiming "Thar Thar kaanp rahi hai Chinese media"? The effect of propaganda/psyops is intended for the adversary not ourselves.
U R typical victim of confirmation bias. It's your choice to be laggard in realizing true nature, believe only when pappa says it.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by hnair »

Haridas-saar, if this was China, we all could have easily believed this. But since this is India, you of all people know we need to go to the depots and count the canisters. And then while on way back….wait, we realize we can’t trust our people. What if canisters are empty to trick us? So we go back and ask for canisters to be opened and make sure those mijjiles are legit by doing the Biden test (sniff its head). But then how do we know how many of these work? Oh crap…. We are doomed.

China has 1,000,000,000 missiles deployed in Tibet and they all work 100%. Twitter handle “Shanghai Shaun” said so. Western analyst and what not.

Since ramana mentioned about deterrence above: Chinese have deterrence, we have deference.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by JTull »

Haridas wrote: 14,000 is correct.
Sorry, can't take your word for it. Since 2007 induction, that's $4-5 billion in annual acquisition costs. Assuming a ramp-up after 2014, I just don't see how that's possible when there are other requirements competing for the same resources, viz, strategic missiles, Akash Mk1, etc.

I mean how can they be scared of committing $2 billion over 5-10 years for turbojet development when they are spending $5 billion annually on Brahmos. Imagine how many IAC, LHD, P-75I, SSNs that sort of money can get us.

It just doesn't compute!
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by hnair »

naraswami wrote: Will you tell us what YOU believe sir ?
That you should not quote entire posts for snark
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by ramana »

naraswami, you sadly have an agenda and are not interested in discussion.
Sbanning you.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Haridas »

hnair wrote:Haridas-saar, if this was China, we all could have easily believed this. But since this is India, you of all people know we need to go to the depots and count the canisters. And then while on way back….wait, we realize we can’t trust our people. What if canisters are empty to trick us? So we go back and ask for canisters to be opened and make sure those mijjiles are legit by doing the Biden test (sniff its head). But then how do we know how many of these work? Oh crap…. We are doomed.

China has 1,000,000,000 missiles deployed in Tibet and they all work 100%. Twitter handle “Shanghai Shaun” said so. Western analyst and what not.

Since ramana mentioned about deterrence above: Chinese have deterrence, we have deference.
:D :lol: :rotfl:
Reminds me of the Panchatantra story of "The brahmin and the three crooks: Brahmin carrying lamb on his head"
Last edited by Haridas on 25 Feb 2023 01:52, edited 1 time in total.
ramana
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by ramana »

Ok, no more on that off-topic.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by fanne »

so whoever is doubting, do a very small exercise by yourself (at least I am not feeding it)- google all the capacity for Brahmos and the year they came online. Do the math if they ran at full capacity and then what number you get. Please don't argue why they would run at full capacity, because they will. This is all on google.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Thakur_B »

Okay I will gander a guess.

Initial years of production would be all screwdriver giri, and latter years would be supplanted by local subcomponent production. The major items being the engine, seeker and the control assemblies.

Data Patterns, Godrej and BEL being the major vendors.

AI 2013 was when these local subassembly were first displayed to public.

Can't fathom a production run of more than 100 units an year at peak. 1400 is a good figure considering low rate of production in initial years
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by basant »

The capacity is not that small according to some news:

2007: "BrahMos Aerospace plans to increase the production of its supersonic cruise missile by 300 per cent by 2009. The Indian Russian company is currently upgrading its missile production lines in Orissa and Hydrabad, and expects the completed facilities to enable it to produce about 400 missiles per year. The production rate of missile stands at about 100 in the year after it was increased in 2006 to produce missiles for the Indian Navy."

2018: 50-60 per month.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Yagnasri »

What if the cost figures are deliberately inflated?
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Karan M »

fanne wrote:I had posted a similar post last year on Brahmos, when Chinese expert had said that India had 14,000 Brahmos. That was followed by less-known (but more credible blog than Siachin should be given to Pak gentleman), where he had concluded that based on our publicly declared manufacturing capacity, 14,000 number is very much possible.
Again, I do not have any inside info (Rajnath Ji does not have my personal number to brief me), but based on pure logic
1. We want to stop the Chinese in LAC in case of hot war, or deter them from a hot war - for that you need the capability. IAF is not moving fast with acquiring aircraft (their new jhunjhuna after MMRCA is MRFA and there are 26 other letters in English language, they will not run out of Jhunjhunas), IA loves Athos and will not move fast enough with other credible desi alternatives (endless rounds of tests). But we have a missile, that in great numbers can make a difference, we can manufacture it locally, why wouldn't we? Unless everyone is an idiot and only smart people are the one reading this
2. The cost of sale is different than cost of manufacturing. Manufacturing incidentally is done by govt agencies (mostly), where the driver may not be profit, they can very well deliver at cost (or some very less margin per missile, but huge given the volume)
3. Not all cost are declared, as not all NOTAM result in missile test (or is it?) and as all missile test are of Prithvi (it used to be Trishul, but I guess the keyboard with these alphabets must have worn out)
4. What could be a giveaway is personnel, you need people to man and fire them, one has to dig
5. The current dispensation is confident about handling China and TSP, it can be bluff or can be backed by hard power (in spite of our issues with planes, artillery) . Brahmos is fully indigenous, locally manufactured and does not have personnel issues (like without Hammer, Rafale is useless, cannot be used, then why buy it). Logic says it will be manufactured in great numbers, most likely without grand announcements.
Please don't make such "random guy said this, so he said that" posts without credible evidence. They dilute the quality of the posts in the forum when one makes assertions without evidence and with flimsy reasoning.

1. Production capacity. That neither exists in India or Russia. Go look at the number of Brahmos or any CM fired by the Russians in Ukraine. You'll struggle to find them able to produce any number of CMs in the number that you claim India has. Given that many of the parts are still coming from Russia, why are they not able to swamp Ukr with missiles. As regards India, we are still testing key systems to deploy. That's what the result of continued under investment in defence is. It hasn't changed.

2. Funding, to make Brahmos at even twice the current rate, you need subsystems and multiple production lines. And that requires funding. The Indian defence budget over the past two decades does not in any way back up any extremely high numbers of 14000 missiles hidden under some tarpaulin someplace.

3. Personnel. There are only limited Artillery units available to fire conventional Brahmos. If we had even a fraction of the numbers you claim, multiple more missile regiments would have been raised.

4. You don't seem to understand how complex and expensive the Brahmos is. Which is why you've so easily come to the conclusion that being conservative, cautious about taking such numbers is somehow not being smart and being an idiot. If you chaps had even the slightest idea how hard the Brahmos is to make, let alone assemble, you wouldn't be making such easy inferences. The Brahmos is a very complex liquid ramjet with highly labor intensive machining involved & complex subsystems which we are yet to deploy en masse. This has not happened because the Govts parsimonious attitude towards defence R&D, run by bureaucrats who regard it as something to be avoided and offloaded to the private sector wherever possible. And the private sector is not willing to invest heavily either. There are no hidden supply chains that can make the numbers you envisage.

What you've done is you've force fitted some kind of theory to match your predefined conclusion that Brahmos have been produced in massive numbers.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Karan M »

Yagnasri wrote:What if the cost figures are deliberately inflated?
And somehow all the other countries who purchased Onyx etc are all in on, to hide the costs.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Karan M »

basant wrote:The capacity is not that small according to some news:

2007: "BrahMos Aerospace plans to increase the production of its supersonic cruise missile by 300 per cent by 2009. The Indian Russian company is currently upgrading its missile production lines in Orissa and Hydrabad, and expects the completed facilities to enable it to produce about 400 missiles per year. The production rate of missile stands at about 100 in the year after it was increased in 2006 to produce missiles for the Indian Navy."

2018: 50-60 per month.
Please read your own link to begin. 50-60 missiles of all kinds. That includes the Akash which received a significant production order. And always look to validate your info.

As of 2022
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 4-amp.html

BrahMos Aerospace has received around 80 hectares of land in Uttar Pradesh for the establishment of the new manufacturing centre with an initial investment of ₹300 crore. The company plans to complete all manufacturing-related work for the new facility by the mid of 2024. Once fully operational, this dedicated facility will produce 80-100 BrahMos systems every year.

Even this facility is not operational. And even the above rate is to be achieved in three years. Making the Brahmos isn't easy. It's a very complex system of systems & hence requires a lot of time intensive effort. It's not an Iranian Shahed to be churned out easily.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Karan M »

fanne wrote:so whoever is doubting, do a very small exercise by yourself (at least I am not feeding it)- google all the capacity for Brahmos and the year they came online. Do the math if they ran at full capacity and then what number you get. Please don't argue why they would run at full capacity, because they will. This is all on google.
I wish you'd follow your own advice and provide hard evidence. The doubts exist for valid reasons. Can't be just wished away. Every bit of public evidence contradicts your beliefs.

These sort of over the top claims detract from how hard the situation really is in terms of national defence. The hard numbers, data need to be analysed dispassionately & corrective measures undertaken. If you were actually doing the math, you'd realize for Brahmos production to hit anywhere near the numbers you mention, the Russian & Indian defence industry would have to scale up at multiples of what they are.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Pratyush »

:wink: Guys, i don't understand this Brahmos numbers in service discussion.

If the PRC believe that such numbers have been built. Then we should encourage such beliefs. If they don't believe this number. Then we should ensure that they do.

This 14000 missile number is quite close to the number of missiles ( 20000+ of all types). I had asked for a few months ago in order to deal with a potential 2 front war. ( Ramana admonished me not to wear Dhoti after that post)

So here is my 2 Paisa.

Do we have 14000 brahmos missiles in service. I don't know.

Do we need such numbers. Yes and more, of different types of missiles for different ranges.
Last edited by Pratyush on 25 Feb 2023 11:50, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Karan M »

I don't think anyone questions the needs for such numbers. The real issue is in believing we've already arrived & then being complacent. There is absolutely zero room for that. The IAF, IA are literally hurting for modernisation & funding. The domestic R&D scene has some positive movement but the funding is nowhere near what's required, and nor have long pending orders for domestic gear been placed. Usual bureaucratic power plays are also underway. These need to be fixed. Fixating on an imaginary force of 14K Brahmos which will somehow save us in all out conflict is unreal imho.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Neela »

Karan M wrote:I don't think anyone questions the needs for such numbers. The real issue is in believing we've already arrived & then being complacent. There is absolutely zero room for that. The IAF, IA are literally hurting for modernisation & funding. The domestic R&D scene has some positive movement but the funding is nowhere near what's required, and nor have long pending orders for domestic gear been placed. Usual bureaucratic power plays are also underway. These need to be fixed. Fixating on an imaginary force of 14K Brahmos which will somehow save us in all out conflict is unreal imho.
Karan ji
Recent quote by DefMin Rajnath Singh hinted at ministry’s awareness at importing key components and selling as make in India while mentioning 4th indigenisation list is coming.
The screws are being tightened. Emergency procurement to bypass needs minister level approval.
Another aspect which i sense is that defense forces aren’t being spared …they are being called out .
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by konaseema »

This is the link to the last known order from the Indian Navy last year.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 922724.ece

When the forces are placing piece meal orders, where does the question of 14K missiles even arise?
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by asbchakri »

I do not think we need that many Brahmos missiles alone or is it economically feasible. If ever needed any in that numbers, and more, are the Missile Defense Systems like the S-400, PAD, AAD, Akash and other such multi layered systems (combined) to act as shields setup strategically around the country. Spending that much on only one system with only a specific range, even with the extended ones which I think are not yet in full production, would not make sense. Just my thoughts.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Yagnasri »

Real range we really do not know. :D

Even if we assume it is 300 km. It takes care of almost everything in pakilands except something in B'sthan.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by KL Dubey »

Karan M wrote: Please read your own link to begin. 50-60 missiles of all kinds. That includes the Akash which received a significant production order. And always look to validate your info.
That is not inconsistent with the statement of "Basant". 50-60/month of all kinds means about 600-720/year, of which BrahMos could be 300-400.
BrahMos Aerospace has received around 80 hectares of land in Uttar Pradesh....
Even this facility is not operational. And even the above rate is to be achieved in three years.
That is very recent news, and it wasn't counted in the estimate either. It is not relevant to this discussion.

I did my own estimate based on the many news items on "BrahMos production rate increases" over the years, and a number in the range of 5000-8000 seems easily reasonable.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by konaseema »

My limited understanding is that India's military doctrine is to defend our land mass at all costs and not to take the fight to the enemy. Having said that, India is investing heavily on defending its borders by building the infrastructure within the country and along its borders. So far, the defense budgets have been conservative and it doesn't allow the armed forces to amass 14K Brahmos missiles, unless the production is funded through strategic funds allocated to the likes of the ATV (likes of Arihant class SSBN) and it can't be both (again) unless India wants the plausible deniability to amass such numbers of these tactical missiles. With 280 - 800 kms range, it will not be able to put a big dent on the infrastructure capability that Chinese have built over the years, unless Chinese call our bluff with deep strikes similar to how we called out Pakistan's bluff of nuclear retaliation. At this point we have to conclude that we have enough Brahmos missiles that has prevented Chinese aggression beyond Galwan, for now.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Karan M »

KL Dubey wrote: That is not inconsistent with the statement of "Basant". 50-60/month of all kinds means about 600-720/year, of which BrahMos could be 300-400.


Please don't make off the cuff statements without evidence. Can you show me where are these factories in India which are capable of making 300-400 Brahmos a year. Where are the missile regiments that will fire them. Where are the different manufacturers that go into each & every subsystem. Where was India's defence budget increased to order these missiles. As of 2012-14, a Brahmos supplier was actually in losses given it's low order book.

Extraordinary claims require evidence. You've provided none & are just interpreting available data in a particular manner.

BrahMos Aerospace has received around 80 hectares of land in Uttar Pradesh....
Even this facility is not operational. And even the above rate is to be achieved in three years.
That is very recent news, and it wasn't counted in the estimate either. It is not relevant to this discussion.
Of course it is relevant. It shows that India after receiving the IAF orders & others needed to upgrade it's current facilities which weren't sufficient to handle the limited demand, unlike your claims of 5000-8000 missiles. You seem to think these are easy to make. In reality they are highly complex systems with a huge effort to even put them together. For your claims to be true, India has to have been secretly hiding a huge chunk of it's defence budget, has hidden entire formations and raisings, the Russians have kept quiet about it (whereas they trumpet from the sky about the smallest exports), the facilities created for these are not available for either Russia or India either given we are still mastering many of the key systems, the multiple suppliers involves are committing fraud & hiding their order book, the list is huge and the gaps between your assertions & the reality are substantial. And all you have is a mistaken interpretation of a "we should/must" article.
I did my own estimate based on the many news items on "BrahMos production rate increases" over the years, and a number in the range of 5000-8000 seems easily reasonable.
You can do all the estimates you want. Fact is until you have evidence backing those estimates which can be verified, those estimates are inaccurate. If you had some inside information that'd be one thing, and even there severe doubts would remain about the data vs what one interpreted, but public sources do not back you up. They are far more conservative & well in line with our budgeting & industrial capacity.

Many folks do track a lot of the items that go Into Brahmos & TBH we'd be happy with even a fraction of the 5000 - 8000 number. You gents seem to think putting together a missile like the Brahmos is easy given the numbers you are throwing around. In reality, it's a very expensive & complex piece of kit with a very restricted supply chain which we are yet to completely master.

Given our restrictions, we are still heavily dependent on Russia for key systems.

And there, there are no facilities even Russia which can churn out the 300-400 Yakhont a year. They would have been cock a hoop at such orders and the capacity to do so would have been heavily leveraged now that they themselves are in a fight in Ukraine.

And if they could they'd be all over the news in Ukraine. The fact that they can't speaks volumes.

This is a direct consequence of the lack of seriousness with which we've allocated funds to defence and even otherwise, Brahmos is a very expensive tool. It's over the top cost per unit, is exactly why Nirbhays's success is such a priority.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by ashishvikas »

Numbers might be quite low, below 300. Godrej Aerospace makes airframe and they have delivered just 200 by 2021.

2021: Godrej delivered 200th airframe

https://www.financialexpress.com/defenc ... e/2339605/

2017: Godrej Aerospace delivers 100th set of BrahMos airframe assemblies

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 930324.cms
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Karan M »

Neela wrote:
Karan M wrote:I don't think anyone questions the needs for such numbers. The real issue is in believing we've already arrived & then being complacent. There is absolutely zero room for that. The IAF, IA are literally hurting for modernisation & funding. The domestic R&D scene has some positive movement but the funding is nowhere near what's required, and nor have long pending orders for domestic gear been placed. Usual bureaucratic power plays are also underway. These need to be fixed. Fixating on an imaginary force of 14K Brahmos which will somehow save us in all out conflict is unreal imho.
Karan ji
Recent quote by DefMin Rajnath Singh hinted at ministry’s awareness at importing key components and selling as make in India while mentioning 4th indigenisation list is coming.
The screws are being tightened. Emergency procurement to bypass needs minister level approval.
Another aspect which i sense is that defense forces aren’t being spared …they are being called out .
Sir it's been eight years. And if you see what's been done vs what should've been, the gulf is huge. And if you look at how Pak & PRC have modernised, the gulf between us is even higher. There's also a lot of focus on talk "we announced this list", "we said that", we believe in this", actual orders though speak the reality. That's a critical issue. All of these are tied to budgetary allocation & the lack of a Parrikar style gentleman at the helm.

PRC is at 150+ J-20s already. We made a huge hue & cry of ordering 83 Tejas Mk1A after a delay of two years. I'd also suggest taking a look at the PLARF and the Pak Army's artillery modernisation. While we kept talking, they kept inducting. Akash 3/4 regiment have been in "talks" for over 2 years now.

In any sensible decision making structure, R&D budgets would have been increased to accelerate D&D time lines, and ensure component devpt was available at time of production, have dual sourcing so if there were delays in one program, a temporary hedge was procured in enough number to hedge, and when an item was developed, it would be ordered in number and not delayed because, well R&D/defence budgeting is not a priority.

None of this has been done. There are only two real orders for desi gear and even they pale versus what's available to our adversaries. And the over the top thriftiness demonstrated by this GOI when it comes to anything R&D limited has wide ramifications of the negative kind. I sincerely hope they course correct. We can easily afford a few billion dollars more in Rs eqvt per year. But we aren't spending & we will be caught in a very tough situation unless we have an entire decade to prep.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by williams »

konaseema wrote:My limited understanding is that India's military doctrine is to defend our land mass at all costs and not to take the fight to the enemy. Having said that, India is investing heavily on defending its borders by building the infrastructure within the country and along its borders. So far, the defense budgets have been conservative and it doesn't allow the armed forces to amass 14K Brahmos missiles, unless the production is funded through strategic funds allocated to the likes of the ATV (likes of Arihant class SSBN) and it can't be both (again) unless India wants the plausible deniability to amass such numbers of these tactical missiles. With 280 - 800 kms range, it will not be able to put a big dent on the infrastructure capability that Chinese have built over the years, unless Chinese call our bluff with deep strikes similar to how we called out Pakistan's bluff of nuclear retaliation. At this point we have to conclude that we have enough Brahmos missiles that has prevented Chinese aggression beyond Galwan, for now.
I have heard in many Indian military discussions that we don't have territorial ambitions. Our land mass should include PoK and Aksai Chin. Which really means we do have to military plan to recover these territories.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Karan M »

ashishvikas wrote:Numbers might be quite low, below 300. Godrej Aerospace makes airframe and they have delivered just 200 by 2021.

2021: Godrej delivered 200th airframe

https://www.financialexpress.com/defenc ... e/2339605/

2017: Godrej Aerospace delivers 100th set of BrahMos airframe assemblies

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 930324.cms
Precisely. Pointless to ignore all this and claim putting together Brahmos is some minor undertaking.

The amount of effort this missile requires is huge. Its a very complex, and highly expensive system that needs a lot of industrial effort per unit that we simply can't scale up without significant investment of a kind that's not been attempted.
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Avinandan »

^^ :shock: :shock:
But that is still way too low that even realistic estimates here :(
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Re: Indian Missiles News & Discussions - 30 June 2022

Post by Karan M »

That's the indigenous production part. The earlier units would be mostly assembled from Russian parts. It's not that hard to estimate Brahmos numbers. They are higher than above but fairly modest, nothing like 5K - 8K-14K in service.
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