Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

[Theo_Fidel]

My view is different from yours. We need to facilitate a tomorrow in which a political leader should have no business handling issues of religion/caste/ethnicity/gender etc. These issues are ideally best left to other specialized institutions--existing, nascent, or not yet imagined. Government must over time disengage from it's traditional role in these areas and in doing so redefine "governance" for itself. In addition, development and justice must necessarily be blind to these issues. Is this not what Modi appears to be striving for? In the speech he delivered in English in Chennai, he says categorically that secularism is development. That definition makes sense. On what basis are you saying that he is ignoring these issues? He understands the link between aspiration, development, governance and prosperity for all. Why should he and others like him not be encouraged?

Well then why for did we have 2 months of riots and dharna's in Dilli over the status of women. Why have a government at all if it is unable to engage society and respond to its demands. No where in world has development and social reform gone separately. It always goes hand in hand.

My view is the exact opposite, government should focus on governance and society and leave business and investment decisions to the private sector.

[nachiket]

Theo, you are being vague. What exactly is the "social reform" you want Modi to take up? How much have other politicians who talk of nothing but caste and religion actually delivered? The Congress is supposedly the champion of minorities and socially weak classes. So why is their condition so miserable even after 60 years of Congress rule?

You are clutching at straws to find something with which to oppose Modi.

[Theo_Fidel]

I'm neutral about Modi. To me so far he sounds just like any other neta. Avoids the difficult issues and goes with the easy ones or media winning ones. He himself has confessed that he does this to avoid distraction.

India is saturated with religion and caste. Any reform is going to have to go through these two. But that is not what I'm going after. When I talk about reform it must include ALL of India.

WRT the congress one of the reasons for its long term decline is that the lower communities have very much boosted themselves to higher levels. But there is still a 40%, and in places like chattigarh, 60%+ who are not able to voluntarily join modern society. Some one must make them do this, only government can.

[devesh]

any reason why you picked Chattisgarh? why not say Bihar? or Assam? or Nagaland? or Mizoram? or UP? are those places the dens of "modern society"? why specifically Chattisgarh?

[Misra]

Well then why for did we have 2 months of riots and dharna's in Dilli over the status of women. Why have a government at all if it is unable to engage society and respond to its demands. No where in world has development and social reform gone separately. It always goes hand in hand.

My view is the exact opposite, government should focus on governance and society and leave business and investment decisions to the private sector.

A government is necessary to recognize the need for and facilitate the creation of institutions staffed with experts who will be better equipped to examine contentious issues than politicians whose notions of power, responsibility and accountability are suspect. That is the apt response of a govt to the demands of society. This is what Modi also referred to in his speech to the SRCC students. In my view, too, this is the fastest way to development of ALL of democratic India.

[devesh]

I have a better question. what if it's a Hindutva Government? would we still bat for "govt intervention" to "induce modernity" of the Hindutva variety? or is that privilege to be restricted only to the Secular regime?

[Hari Seldon]

BJP not opposed to NCTC, but is against giving police power to proposed anti-terror hub, says Jaitley

BJP leader Arun Jaitley Monday said his party was not opposed to the setting up of the National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC) but it was against giving police powers to the proposed anti-terror hub.

In an article posted on the party's website, Jaitley said powers and jurisdiction of NCTC must be within the constitutional framework and fight against terrorism must co-exist with federalism.

Accusing the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government of adopting "soft approach on terror", he said it had repealed Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA) while India faces jihadi domestic modules and Pakistan foments trouble through state and non-state actors.

Responding to Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde's remarks that the central government was trying to break the deadlock over NCTC, Jaitley said it was proposed to be set up under the Intelligence Bureau and intelligence agencies should not get police powers.

"There could be no possible objection to a National Counter Terrorism Centre but its powers and jurisdictions must be within the constitutional framework... The NCTC is proposed to be set up under the Intelligence Bureau. Its director will report to the director of IB. Intelligence agencies should not get into police powers," he said.

Several things to like about the BJP's response above - the correct harping on constitutional framework for powers and jurisdictions being the most obvious (NM and Guj as well as other BJP states have been victims of overzealous and sometimes malicious UPA actions in the past). I wouldn't trust UPA (or for that matter NDA either) with an NCTC having the power to arrest and detain acting under executive direction via the IB.

Also, reaching out to people - the core constituency directly via the web rather than through agenda-soaked intermediaries like rrrNDTV and IE.

[SwamyG]

Rama garu....yup I agree his work is available for all to see. I just sense high expectancy from people, because we have lacked good quality leaders. In all cases, be it India or elsewhere, it is people who recognize qualities in an individual and move him towards Hero (or zero); in Indic case make him a god in the long run.

If you had noticed, I express "hopes" when it comes to Modi, and my views are pretty much on the discussions here.

[Pranav]

Even in his speech to the SRCC students, we did not hear him refer to religion/caste/ethnicity/gender based topics. He takes great pains to emphasize (by silence!) that when he talks of development he makes no distinction between Hindus or Muslims, for instance. He understands his responsibility to educate by example. That is the kind of leadership I would like to see, not just in India.

It is OK at state level to ignore these issues, but they are inescapable at national level. Sooner or later he is going to have to confront these demons, ignoring them only pushes the question further down the road. We can walk and chew paan at the same time. Development and social justice must go hand in hand.

The said demons are constantly being fed by Congies et al. The way to deal with them is to starve them to death.

[SwamyG]

Theo:
I remember a tid-bit you mentioned during the TN nook-klear reactor discussion, you mentioned the engagement between 'elders' and 'youth' of your community and the influence of maasa based 'youth' folks from your community. So simple straight questions to you; and hopefully I (we) get a straight answers from you.

What would you like to hear from Modi? What does he have to say or do, in order for you to convince the 'elders' and 'youth' of your community to vote for him?

ps: Can't get any simpler or straight, right?

[RamaY]

SwamyG garu...

We all are fifty shades of gray

What "WE" need is the Pope to endorse NM. OK a cardinal would do. Even if it is Keith O'Brien.

[anmol]

I'm neutral about Modi. To me so far he sounds just like any other neta. Avoids the difficult issues and goes with the easy ones or media winning ones. He himself has confessed that he does this to avoid distraction.

He is not avoiding anything... may be you are. Nor does he sound like other netas, and that is the reason for his popularity. He completely ignores all the distractions(caste and religion) and focuses on issues that affect all, and work in those area benefits all.

India is saturated with religion and caste. Any reform is going to have to go through these two. But that is not what I'm going after. When I talk about reform it must include ALL of India.

This is exactly what he have proven wrong, the reason why he is different from all netas, this is exactly what you are trying to avoid.
Every other neta have tried reforms through castes and religion, he OTOH have proven that by focusing only on development... all problems can be solved that affect all the people.

Case in point: 24hr Electricity in Gujarat does not discriminate on the basis of caste and religion... it is for all. If reforms were to be done through religion and caste it would:
1) First ST and SC
2) Then little more for Maha Dalit
3) And little less for Micro Dalit
4) Some for BC
5) And OBC
6) Before the rest... Minorities
7) ...and in case you are evil Brahmin or Baniya... no bijli for you.

WRT the congress one of the reasons for its long term decline is that the lower communities have very much boosted themselves to higher levels. But there is still a 40%, and in places like chattigarh, 60%+ who are not able to voluntarily join modern society. Some one must make them do this, only government can.

60 years of Garibi Hatao etc have shown how successful government is.... OTOH in Modi's model.. job of Government is only Good Governance. He have given example of tribals(Banana example) in Gujarat.. who without much help from Gujarat Government have voluntarily joined "modern society".

[rajeshkathiriya]

News from Gujarat

http://deshgujarat.com/2013/02/25/gujar ... ng-sector/

By our correspondent, Gandhinagar, 25 February 2013

The Gujarat government today declared five incentive schemes for manufacturing sector in an attempt to raise this sector’s GSDP contribution from 27.6% to 32%.

Five incentive schemes:

(1) Interest subsidy scheme
(2) Assistance for Core infrastructure
(3) Assistance for Common facility(a scheme for assistance for R&D Research development through joint facility)
(4) Assistance for Common Effluent Treatment Plant(CETP)
(5) Assistance for Center of excellence.

Beneficiaries sectors:
Automobile and auto components
Solar and wind equipments
Specialty and fine chemicals
Electronics system design and manufacturing
Food and Agro business

The announcement was made under assembly rule no. 44.

Interest subsidy scheme:
(A) 7% graded interest subsidy for five years for medium scale and small medium manufacturing (MSME) units. 2% subsidy for big industrial units in actual investment upto Rs 100 crore.
(b) Rs 50 lakh interest subsidy for big industrial units and per year maximum Rs 25 lakh interest subsidy for medium and small medium manufacturing(MSME) units.

Core Infrastructure Assistance scheme:
Industrial park to be given either 50% incentive of total expenditure over core infrastructure development or upto Rs 20 crore limit whatever less.

Assistance for Common facility(R&D): One time assistance of 80% or upto Rs 10 crore whatever less to State level approval committee approved self sustained project for testing equipment and R &D equipment in four installments.

Common Effluent Treatment Plant: 75% assistance of total expenditure to start such plant with matching contribution of the Government of India, or if GoI assistance is not available, then 40% assistance.

Assistance scheme for Center of Excellence: State government institutions functioning under public private partnership model, industrial units and professional institutes will be suitable for assistance. 70% assistance including recurring expenditure would be availed. For national level center of excellence the amount of assistance will be upto Rs 20 crore while for international level center of excellence the limit will be Rs 30 crore. Such center of excellence must encourage for innovation, entrepreneurship and six sub sectors.

[ShyamSP]

From Sridhar's old cartoons http://archives.eenadu.net/02-24-2013/M ... weekpanel1

[kapilrdave]

....
India is saturated with religion and caste. Any reform is going to have to go through these two. But that is not what I'm going after. When I talk about reform it must include ALL of India.
....

Theo, you surprised me. Given your track record in economic forum I know you understand socio/economic matters better than many here. And I'm damn sure you understand how development can change the lives of poor and left-behinds indiscriminately and equally. Why are you being so naive here?

[vijayk]

Even in his speech to the SRCC students, we did not hear him refer to religion/caste/ethnicity/gender based topics. He takes great pains to emphasize (by silence!) that when he talks of development he makes no distinction between Hindus or Muslims, for instance. He understands his responsibility to educate by example. That is the kind of leadership I would like to see, not just in India.

It is OK at state level to ignore these issues, but they are inescapable at national level. Sooner or later he is going to have to confront these demons, ignoring them only pushes the question further down the road. We can walk and chew paan at the same time. Development and social justice must go hand in hand.

It is this symbolism and identity politics that ruined this nation for the last 60 years. If Gandhis can play the game, Laloo/Mulyam/YSR/MK showed they can play the game and can go even lower.

You want social justice for Muslims?
We will have Osama Bin Laden look-alikes campaigning for us. We will have Madrasas and Urdu where your children can never compete with us. They will always be our peons/servants. We will visit Pakistan and like their bottoms. See! How they can beat them at CON party's games?

Sonia appoints first Woman President ... Hoo Hoo Ha Ha ...

Turns out that lady was cleaning Sonia's dishes according to Rajasthan's CON party minister. Did she do any thing worthwhile to change the status of women or children or inspiration for any one. She went on foreign trips with her son, grabbed army land to build a palace and pardoned child rapist murderers/ rapist murderers. After 10 years, the security for women is worst in the last 60 years even in the capital city.

First Dalit Speaker ... Hoo Hoo Ha Ha

Other than Maya and her brother's big bank accounts, there is no visible improvement.

Modi's social justice plan .. Opportunity for all and growth for all

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/indiaatlse/2012/ ... -is-clear/

What is particularly striking is that the Modi cult has permeated deep down even in the remote tribal pockets. The reasons are not far to seek. The state government has launched many welfare initiatives for tribals to win them over. Apart from linking tribal areas to high-quality state and national highways, special schemes were launched to strengthen village cooperatives and encourage tribal women to produce and sell milk. In all over the tribal belt, queues of women at collection centres are a testimony to the success of the scheme. A random conversation with the tribals in Dang district clearly showed a high level of contentment. “Our income has gone up ever since Saputara was developed as a tourist resort,” said a young tribal who runs a tea stall in the hilly resort which boasts five-star and three-star hotels .

Moreover, tribals betray no bitterness over the development paradigm which can create disparities. In tribal regions of Gujarat, infrastructure development has given a fillip to people’s aspirations without creating any hiatus between ‘us’ versus ‘them’.

The idea is to broad base this development concept everywhere.

Here is an example of complaint. The complaint is they only developed some zones to attract jobs. They want it everywhere. I hope this criticism continues and Modi develops it in all places year by year regardless of communal/caste considerations.

“Rajkot is the worst affected by the scanty rains these years,” said Professor Purshottam Marvania, a vocal critic of Modi’s model of development. “You see, they have created and insulated an area of affluence stretching from Mehsana (in north Gujarat) to Vapi (in south) where world-class infrastructure has been developed to attract big industries,” he said. In his view, the areas lying outside that strip is a study in contrast as poverty, malnutrition and administrative apathy characterise governance outside the privileged zone.

If the caste equations are against Modi and there is an undercurrent of social discontent, none is visible. That the Congress is groping for an issue other than Modi is only indicative of the constricted space for the opposition in the state.

This is the type of debate we need to have in India.

What do we have instead? "He did this for OBC but we are MBCs and we need some thing. No... Muslims are the most backward and they need this. No. No. SC/STs need this blah blah. No No... Christians are ignored by this administration. We need more churches. We need more reservation for us --- (Replace --- with SC/ST or Muslim OBC or Hindu OBC or ABC or XYZ)"

http://www.niticentral.com/2013/02/25/m ... 49725.html

Narendra Modi is emerging as a popular leader among Muslims in Gujarat. But one needs to understand what the growing popularity of Modi among Gujarati Muslims should be attributed to.

Muslims in Gujarat are better off than their counterparts in other States. The Sachar Committee — appointed by the Congress-led UPA to study the socio-economic and educational status of Muslims in the country brought home this very fact.

The Sachar Committee report says that in terms of literacy, Muslims in Gujarat stand at 73.5 per cent as compared to the national average of 59.1 per cent.

In terms of per month and per capita income, the report says Muslims in urban Gujarat earn an average of Rs 875 which is more than the national average of Rs 804. Similarly in rural Gujarat, Muslims earn an average of Rs 668 as compared to the national average of Rs 553.

According to the Sachar Committee findings, in terms of the share of Muslims in Government jobs, Gujarat fares well at 5.4 per cent in comparison to 2.1 per cent in West Bengal, 3.2 per cent in Delhi and 4.4 per cent in Maharashtra.

Time and again Congress has used Muslims as mere vote-banks but has done nothing for their progress. The party created a divide between the so-called minorities and majorities. It was Modi’s development agenda which helped bridge that divide. Unlike Congress, which promises minorities welfare as a meherbani, Modi’s statecraft considers development the right of both majorities and minorities.

Final point: What about mall nutrition in Gujarat.... Katju, Guha, all the useless sicko Fiberals want to know.

[Sushupti]

A shame, says PM, as report finds 42% of surveyed under-5 kids underweight

Among the worst districts as per the new data are Malkangiri in Orissa with 57.75 per cent and Aurangabad in Bihar with 49.47 per cent children underweight. Shrawasti in Uttar Pradesh with 72.31 per cent, Rae Bareli with 70.40 per cent, Koraput in Orissa with 68.86 per cent and Dumka in Jharkhand with 63.65 per cent have the highest number of stunted children.

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/a-sha ... t/898327/0

Hey but what about malnutrition in Gujarat.

[Theo_Fidel]

Theo:
I remember a tid-bit you mentioned during the TN nook-klear reactor discussion, you mentioned the engagement between 'elders' and 'youth' of your community and the influence of maasa based 'youth' folks from your community. So simple straight questions to you; and hopefully I (we) get a straight answers from you.
What would you like to hear from Modi? What does he have to say or do, in order for you to convince the 'elders' and 'youth' of your community to vote for him?
ps: Can't get any simpler or straight, right?

Modi is not a TN politician so it impossible to 'vote' for him.
I would say what I have always said. Let his position become clearer.

Right now we don't know how he would react to most things. In interest of not turning this into a laundry list of items (ignoring the jobs situation) let me ask for a position on 3 things, women's empowerment, education (you know what I'm talking about) and labor (organized, skill, land, etc). That long speech I read did not really address how he proposes to engage these 3 issues. These three are in my mind the 3 most important ones for India, these issues surface again and again in the vernacular press. And sorry P2G2 and Raksha skati and teachers university is very trivial compared to the real challenges we face.

I have said many times that we will keep running into head winds unless we can get the whole of India to modernize. I think the SRCC stuff works in more progressive states and areas and works for more progressive communities. The other 60% of India will get ignored...

In the interest of keeping things simple let me ask you this. Imagine Modi had gone and used this speech or something similar on the folks in Nadigram, what do you think the response would have been.

[ramana]

Poor MMS he is either shamed or surprised.


Psecularism is a cataract covering the modern Indian's eyes.


Need to get rid of it to see clearly.

[Suraj]

What Modi said or didn't say should be seen through the prism of where he was and what the topic of his speech was. To expect him to make an omnibus talk that covers everything under the sun is absolutely unrealistic.

Look at it a different way. When was the last time a single speech by a politician got this much press ? Speeches don't get this much attention, unless it's something famous like JLN's 'tryst with destiny' one.

Modi gets attention because he doesn't do Rajiv Gandhi-style banana republic talks ('humko yeh banana hai! humko woh banana hai!') - something Yuvraj glibly does too - but his speeches state what he has accomplished in GJ over the past decade, and what he believes needs to be done.

Talk is cheap. If you want a politician to talk about women's empowerment and tribal welfare, that is fine. Chances of it getting done ? As good as they were in the last 65 years, i.e., poor. The difference with Modi is that he speaks from a platform of consistent socio-economic accomplishment, something no other politician at his level has to offer.

When a guy says he wants to do something, and stands on a platform of having done significant things already, his words are worth far more than those uttered by someone who doesn't have that credibility to speak with - like some boy wonder whose ability to tie his own shoelaces without help has not been verified.

[Chandragupta]

What Modi said or didn't say should be seen through the prism of where he was and what the topic of his speech was. To expect him to make an omnibus talk that covers everything under the sun is absolutely unrealistic.

Look at it a different way. When was the last time a single speech by a politician got this much press ? Speeches don't get this much attention, unless it's something famous like JLN's 'tryst with destiny' one.

Modi gets attention because he doesn't do Rajiv Gandhi-style banana republic talks ('humko yeh banana hai! humko woh banana hai!') - something Yuvraj glibly does too - but his speeches state what he has accomplished in GJ over the past decade, and what he believes needs to be done.

Talk is cheap. If you want a politician to talk about women's empowerment and tribal welfare, that is fine. Chances of it getting done ? As good as they were in the last 65 years, i.e., poor. The difference with Modi is that he speaks from a platform of consistent socio-economic accomplishment, something no other politician at his level has to offer.

When a guy says he wants to do something, and stands on a platform of having done significant things already, his words are worth far more than those uttered by someone who doesn't have that credibility to speak with - like some boy wonder whose ability to tie his own shoelaces without help has not been verified.

Saar, very nicely put.

[Theo_Fidel]

Huh! That is falling into the same trap of judging everything by GJ performance. Everyone agrees that first the data is still mixed and is too soon to judge and second much of it will not work in the rest of India. For that matter even within GJ the impact has been very uneven. The data simply does not bear up to close scrutiny even though GJ is and has been a relatively prosperous state. Most indicators are GJ is in the Indian top 10 a place it was long before NM even. In fact there are whole series of indicators where GJ is not in the top 10. Should we then say that NM is amongst the top 10 politicians of India. That's not how it is projected is it, the projection is that GJ is the only successful state and NM is the only successful CM. That is where NM gets into trouble.

When you say something like...

"Friends, today the whole world is talking about Gujarat’s progress."

...sounds like over hype to me. Only one step from the banana crap.

BTW Kerala, that we like to make fun of, has far lower poverty levels, higher per capita and much better indicators that GJ. By that standard can the Commies or Anthony now aspire to run India.

--------------------------------------------------------------

The SRCC speech is a start. I don't know, to me it sounds more CEO speak without a proper engagement of Indian realities. Wait to hear more...

[nachiket]

By that standard can the Commies or Anthony now aspire to run India.

Sure, if they can make the whole country run on remittances

[member_20292]

^^^^

I don't know if you noticed this Theoji, but I saw two of Modis speeches..one in which he is introduced by Cho Ramaswamy and the SRCC one.

In both I found him to be spouting some sort of figures throughout the talk. These figures showed how much improvement in performance has been brought about by his govt.

He might have been pulling them out of his mush...but most likely not. Something to think about. A CM, who largely talks about what he has himself done, rather than what he will do or what SHOULD be done.

[RajeshA]

A CM, who largely talks about what he has himself done, rather than what he will do or what SHOULD be done.

.... or what his dynasty has been doing!

[Suraj]

Theo: Your argument that Gujarat's socio-economic data is 'mixed' is unsupported by electoral results. Do you have an example of another large state where a leader is that popular, and has been repeatedly re-elected by his population by substantial majorities over successive terms, *without* appealing to any particular ethno-linguistic exclusivist thought (i.e. not DMK/Shiv Sena types) or crass populism (e.g. NTR, who did three non-consecutive terms, but just one of them being full length) ? A cursory look at either TN or KL state elections shows the usual musical chairs between DMK and AIADMK in the former, and UDP-LDP binary results in the latter.

Kerala's socio-economic status isn't merely the result of the commies, but several other entities, particularly the series of progressive Travancore Hindu rulers, as well as reasonably benign (compared to present day EJs) Christian institutions. Gujarat's recent progress is directly attributable to Modi's rule - why else would they elect him for 3 terms by majorities that any politician would kill for ? Selectively chosen data about GJ can reveal plenty to suit anyone's agenda. About 1.5 years back we had folks strenuously presenting NAC data showing that the NREGA program was both necessary and a success...

As a Malayalee, I would take Gujarat's much more vibrant economic scene along with its worse socio-economic metrics, over Kerala's first world level social indices combined with criminally stunted anti-developmental milieu. Vague statements about lack of sufficient data (with none presented) doesn't mean much; electoral results clearly indicate a phenomenally popular leader who doesn't waste his time pandering to every little social subgroup as if they're special.

[Ankit Desai]

A CM, who largely talks about what he has himself done, rather than what he will do or what SHOULD be done.

Sagrika Ghosh has copyright of it.

-Ankit

[member_20292]

As a Malayalee, I would take Gujarat's much more vibrant economic scene along with its worse socio-economic metrics, over Kerala's first world level social indices combined with criminally stunted anti-developmental milieu. Vague statements about lack of sufficient data (with none presented) doesn't mean much; electoral results clearly indicate a phenomenally popular leader who doesn't waste his time pandering to every little social subgroup as if they're special.

Kerala's economic policy situation is criminally awkward.

1.You would think that extraordinarily well educated people should, in a democracy be able to cobble together a govt that should deliver stunning economic performance............

2.Keralaits see good governance in all the foreign countries they live in.......

3. they are well educated and thus by implication should know what works and what does not.

Given 1, 2, and 3, they should have reached south korean levels by now.

Why havent things worked that well? How did the commies come to power so many times?

[Suraj]

^^^ Off topic

[SwamyG]

Thanks Theo,
So you want Modi to talk more about the three items you mention (a) Women's empowerment (b) Education and (c) Labor.

The above answer is good enough for my questions. It is fine that you are not impressed with some of the political and rhetorical talk. However, you fear is Modi with his current ideas/agenda will help 40% of the country and 60% of the country will not benefit.

It is immaterial if you or others can vote or not; my question was to understand your position.

As far as his speech and Nandigram; I doubt he would have given the same speech. A good speaker understands his audience and presents the content accordingly. He has to consider their wants, needs, aspirations and fears. His speech in SRC was specific to a particular audience. So in similar situation or place, I would expect him to talk about growth and balance. I would expect him to talk about how government will have regulations, checks and balances, provide opportunities for business and people to grow, yet with the cost clearly identified. I would expect him to talk about jobs, environment, society and his plans for villages and small towns.

Did I answer your question? If you remember my posts in the Indian economic dhaaga, be it the retail sector or river linking ityadi, I have always stood on the side of balance, stability and security of people. I am against 'growth at all costs'.

[Theo_Fidel]

Theo: Your argument that Gujarat's socio-economic data is 'mixed' is unsupported by electoral results. Do you have an example of another large state where a leader is that popular, and has been repeatedly re-elected by his population by substantial majorities over successive terms, *without* appealing to any particular ethno-linguistic exclusivist thought (i.e. not DMK/Shiv Sena types) or crass populism (e.g. NTR, who did three non-consecutive terms, but just one of them being full length) ? A cursory look at either TN or KL state elections shows the usual musical chairs between DMK and AIADMK in the former, and UDP-LDP binary results in the latter.

Kerala's socio-economic status isn't merely the result of the commies, but several other entities, particularly the series of progressive Travancore Hindu rulers, as well as reasonably benign (compared to present day EJs) Christian institutions. Gujarat's recent progress is directly attributable to Modi's rule - why else would they elect him for 3 terms by majorities that any politician would kill for ? Selectively chosen data about GJ can reveal plenty to suit anyone's agenda. About 1.5 years back we had folks strenuously presenting NAC data showing that the NREGA program was both necessary and a success...

As a Malayalee, I would take Gujarat's much more vibrant economic scene along with its worse socio-economic metrics, over Kerala's first world level social indices combined with criminally stunted anti-developmental milieu. Vague statements about lack of sufficient data (with none presented) doesn't mean much; electoral results clearly indicate a phenomenally popular leader who doesn't waste his time pandering to every little social subgroup as if they're special.

That is not correct, I said the data is mixed, not unavailable. Also it is too soon to judge, not that that the performance is not notable. And it is not just Gujarat, the entire nation is looong way from crowing about its 'progress'.

Well since you are asking, the left front in WB holds the record for political longevity and they did it by appealing to economic confiscation and less to ethno-linguistic confrontation. If you want to say the rest of the nation should vote for NM because GJ voted overwhelmingly for him 4 times that is different argument.

Personally I think you sell your state short. But I think you just made my point, how much further does GJ have to go if after all this its per capita is still less than Kerala. One can understand the 'vibrant economic scheme' comment, but it does not reflect in the data relative to other states.

Since the only thing that can settle this is Data here is the growth series for all Indian states from 2004-2011. Tell me if you can pick out a trend that is different from other progressive states. Most states show a dramatic acceleration between 2002-2011 vs 1994-2001

http://planningcommission.nic.in/data/d ... ok_117.pdf

Lets take a look at per capita.

Way back in 2000, GJ had a per capita which was roughly 9th in the nation. In 2010 (2011 is incomplete) it was roughly 8th in the nation.

http://planningcommission.nic.in/data/d ... ok_122.pdf

Lets take a look at industrial/manufacturing growth from 2004-2010.
Ignoring smaller states
GJ is roughly #5 in Industry growth rate.*
GJ is roughly #7 in manufacturing growth rate.*

Now we could get into the larger base argument but that is a different point.

BTW if you are up to it look at the GSDP growth rates.

http://planningcommission.nic.in/data/d ... ook_41.pdf

* In both these cases the 2011-2012 data, which shows dramatic slowdown, is missing for GJ, skewing the data.

All said Gujarat is doing fabulously as a state and I hope it grows faster in future, I tend to think this has a lot to do with Gujarati's themselves. Just as Kerala's growth has a lot to do with Keralites and not so much with the commies. But it remains a part of the Indian continuum as I pointed out many times to Gakakkad earlier.
--------------------------------------
Mahadevbhu,

I hope is explains my skepticism a little better. No state in India should be crowing about how wonderful it is and how others are cr@p. We all have a long ways to go.

[Hari Seldon]

Guess the story India Today's online edition is leading with.... yup, NaMo's name-o is all there only... the headline's a tad misleading in its emphasis...the content is sooo much more illuminating. Only

By saying there is no hike in rail tariffs, Bansal is misleading the nation, claims Modi

Launching a scathing attack on Railway Minister Pawan Kumar Bansal's maiden railway budget, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday termed it as "anti-development" and said that it reflects the "non-performance of the UPA government".

Huh, you might say... what's this, NM talking cheap just like any other 'regular' neta.... but hold on, drill down to get the real story, the thinking behind the statement, the vision behind the thinking... only...

"The Centre's railway budget is anti-development and showcases the non-performance of the government. It will increase the burden of rising prices on the common people," Modi tweeted.

He said that keeping in mind the global economic scenario, the railway budget clearly lacks the needed balance between coastal-port connectivity and rail infrastructure.

Modi said that the railways have an important role to play in the development of the nation and if India wishes to emerge as a leading commercial and industrial destination, then importance must be given to railway services. On the contrary, several railway projects are pending, he said.

And no, NM also knows well to play to his core GJ gallery...

Modi also said that gross injustice has been done to Gujarat in the railway budget.

"There is no mention of the Ahmedabad-Mumbai-Pune Fast Track Bullet Train project in the rail budget.

"Despite railways getting maximum income from Gujarat, the people of Gujarat are being rendered immense injustice for the last nine years," he said.

He said that in the last year's budget, a wagon factory for Kutch was announced and in the last three years, there were surveys for 57 railway lines, but only four railway lines pertaining to Gujarat were mentioned in this budget.

[Hari Seldon]

A lot of the preceding discussion reminds me of the Bhagwati-Panagriya duo';s championing the "Gujarat model" over the "Kerala model" propounded by Amartya Sen.

Gujarat promises continued, accelerated and all-around progress: Jagdish Bhagwati & Arvind Panagariya

On the Guj versus the "kerala" models

Interviewer Question:Why do you want to compare the Kerala model of development with the Gujarat model of development?

B & P answer: "Kerala Model" in our book is a metaphor for a primarily redistribution and statedriven development while "Gujarat Model" is the metaphor for a primarily growth and private-entrepreneurship driven development. As such the Kerala Model vs. Gujarat Model debate is a longstanding one. We show in our book, "India's Tryst with Destiny," that it is ultimately the Gujarat Model that has delivered in Kerala. Contrary to common claims, Kerala has been a rapidly growing state in the post-Independence era, which is the reason it ranks fourth among the larger states, according to per-capita gross state domestic product and first according to per-capita expenditure.

It also suffers from the highest level of inequality among the larger states. So growth, and not redistribution, largely explains low levels of poverty. In health, Kerala's per-capita private expenditures are nearly eight times its percapita public expenditures. In education, excluding two or three tiny northeastern states, at 53%, rural Kerala has by far the highest proportion of students between ages 7 and 16 in private schools. The nearest rival, rural Haryana, has 40% of these students in private schools.

On the perennial social indicators question....

Q: Kerala's social indicators are still high and there isn't much gender bias in both health and education. On the other hand, in Gujarat, the female and male infant mortality rates stood at 51 and 44, respectively, in 2010-11 (The corresponding national figures were 49 and 46, respectively).

B and P answer: No one would question the superior levels of social indicators in Kerala compared with any other state in India, let alone Gujarat. But what does that have to do with the Kerala Model? Kerala simply started at very high levels of social indicators than the rest of the country and it has maintained that lead. In 1951, literacy rate was 47% in Kerala compared with just 18% in India and 22% in Gujarat.

As for the infant mortality rate (IMR), in 1971, the earliest year for which we have comparable data, it was 58 per thousand live births in Kerala, 129 in India and as high as 144 in Gujarat. Even the male-female differences you cite date back to pre-Independence era. The right question to ask is whether the Kerala Model produced perceptibly superior gains (as opposed to superior levels, which were inherited at Independence) in social indicators. The answer to this question turns out to be mostly negative, as we demonstrate in our book.

More chi-chi on social indicators by focusing on snapshots and not on rates of change.

Q:Professor Bhagwati has said in an interview that growth in Gujarat is on track. So far, it hasn't shown any impact on social indicators. Do you believe in trickle-down effect?

A: First, we have always argued that the use of the conservative phrase "trickle-down" is misleading. We prefer to use the more radical phrase "pull up". By reducing poverty, the growth strategy increases incomes which, in turn, can be expected to improve most social indicators (though nutrition in particular may get worse if the diet shifts to less nutritious but tastier foods).

Most social indicators have in fact seen a lot of progress in Gujarat and in many of these, the changes (which economists call "first difference") in social indicators make Gujarat look pretty good indeed. Gujarat inherited low levels of social indicators and it is the change in these indicators where Gujarat shows impressive progress. The literacy rate has risen from 22% in 1951 to 69% in 2001 and 79% in 2011. The infant mortality rate per thousand has fallen from 144 in 1971 to 60 in 2001 and 41 in 2011.

Oh, but the interviewer's fidelity to the theological POV that GJ can't ever catch up with Kerala bursts forth yet again...

Q:Why do you say all seems to be well in Gujarat? In literacy, too, Gujarat ranks 18th out of 35 states and Union Territories. In sex ratio, the state is way behind the national average of 940 females per 1,000 males. In poverty reduction of 8.6% in 5 years (2005-10), it is still behind states like Odisha (19.2%), Maharashtra (13.7%) and Tamil Nadu (13.1%).

A: But you are again failing to distinguish between low levels and changes therein. On the latter criterion, which is the relevant one, Gujarat is making good progress in most areas. The additional good news is that with relatively high per-capita incomes as well as a high growth rate, it will continue to generate high and rapidly rising levels of revenues that, when combined with its good governance (which predates the current chief minister Narendra Modi), promise continued accelerated and all-around progress.

But those wedded to theology can't give up so easily now, can they... and so on here goes yet again...

Q:There are more reasons to worry: 44.6% of children below the age of five suffer from malnutrition in Gujarat whereas nearly 70% of the children suffer from anaemia. States like UP and Bihar have fared better in malnutrition.

A:Such comparisons selectively focusing on one or the other social indicator, especially their levels, are not particularly meaningful; one must consider the changes in several indicators. By that test, Gujarat has done quite well. But we also need to appreciate, and this is what one of us (Panagariya) has ceaselessly argued in recent writings, that the nutrition measurements leave a lot to be desired.

Q: Kerala topped the Human Development Index in 2011, followed by Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Goa and Punjab. Why do you still criticise the Kerala model?

As we have already indicated, Kerala's high social indicators are well known and they are not contested. The question we A: ask is: what does that have to do with the Kerala Model? To keep asserting such causality is the mark of a lazy intellect and is, besides, dangerous in its potential for misleading us to make harmful policy choices.

Oh, read it all only. V illuminating. Bibek Debroy too, like Bhagwati and Panagriya, leaves out mention of NM in his excellent book on the Guj model in order to not sidetrack the focus on the very real and very exciting story we see unfolding there.

[Theo_Fidel]

BTW before someone goes mental on me for saying Kerala, oh apavithra jeevan, has a higher per capita, this is where I got the data from before I got over my laziness and looked at GOI data.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_In ... tes_by_GDP
-----------------------------

SwamyG,

Fully understand saar, the problem is NM is only able to back himself up with the relative industrial performance of GJ. He himself has admitted this several times that the social performance of GJ is lagging. And so he avoids getting stuck in the weeds on these issues. But I do think he has to take on these challenging issues at some point.

The problem comes when an attempt is made to claim that he is running on the track record of some parts of his state and not on others.

To me personally, the most egregious flaw is the declining sex ratio of GJ. This should be the #1 scandal in the state as it was a few years ago in Haryana and Punjab. That alone makes me go hmmmm...

[Suraj]

Theo: the average Bengali will tell you that the CPIM ruled WB on the basis of a stranglehold over the political machinery and administration. Their rule was also characterized by a substantial exodus of educated Bengalis out of the state due to lack of opportunities, right from the start. In that regard, your analogy ought to characterize WB and Kerala in the same basket, as opposed to GJ, not compare CPIM in WB to Modi in GJ. Modi is accomplishing the opposite - he's attracting Gujaratis and non-Gujaratis to the state to live in and do business in.

Kerala was the most literate state (though it didn't exist as such then) in India before Independence - it had 45% literacy when the all-India figure was ~14% . Kerala's per capita income being higher than GJ (or for that matter many other states) is partly due to the capital influx of Gulf remittance/EJ/RoP money.

Well since you are asking, the left front in WB holds the record for political longevity and they did it by appealing to economic confiscation and less to ethno-linguistic confrontation. If you want to say the rest of the nation should vote for NM because GJ voted overwhelmingly for him 4 times that is different argument.

It's not a different argument - it's the very topic of this thread. Modi presents an efficient, able and business-friendly administration. His approach is not characterized by an emphasis on populist welfare schemes. Instead, he provide a state with excellent civic infrastructure that's comparable to the best in other large states, and runs an orderly administration unlike the kind of stultifying bureaucratic creature that people interact with pretty much everywhere around the country. And yes - this being a political thread - that has yielded him rich rewards in political longevity.

Question: why do you think he gets elected with the majorities he gets, since you think he's no great shakes, doesn't pursue the social welfare goals you espouse ? After all, you admit that the state is doing remarkably well under him, and he has been politically stable in a manner no one else has been able to accomplish. Why ? If social issues are a significant matter, how does he manage to maintain widespread - and increasing - popularity over close to 1.5 decades as a state leader ?

If people retain a significant emphasis on the male child, it's not something he can do anything about by fiat. Ditto for education - he can provide a business friendly environment and build schools, but not force enrollment. Nor can he compel them to change their unhealthy dietary habits, though he can and has enabled them to generate substantial income growth from agriculture in what is an arid state. He's ultimately an administrator, and a very good one at that, not a social crusader.

[hnair]

He's ultimately an administrator, and a very good one at that, not a social crusader.

Bingo. I suspect that is what Theo is trying to express - he is watching for a good administrator, as well as a social crusader for the three issues that he feels is important.

Considering the careful policy planning he seem to do, I suspect Shree Modi will lay out some roadmap in a future speech to address the social crusader part.

OT, but since this keeps coming up - Kerala and WBengal does not have 1:1 mapping in the matter of commies. Commies did not get to dominate Kerala or rule uninterrupted, due to getting chucked out after five year stints. Another way of looking at these two states is that Kerala has a "stable binary coalition system" and WB (till recently), a "stable unitary political system". Of course, that did not result in Kerala or WB having stable economies, au contraire, policy inertia (WB) vs policy turmoil (Kerala - UDF and LDF policy rollbacks after every election) caused disruptions of its own kind.

Back to Gujarat. Despite having a stable unitary political setup, the state seem to buck that policy inertia seen in long duration state-level regimes (WB, Bihar, Orissa, Tripura etc come to mind). The psec type anchors try to spin it as "Gujarat's innate entrepreneurial strength" and not Shree Modi's skills. They do not care to explain his governments' visible achievements in infrastructure, agriculture etc. This bucking of policy inertia should have been studied more closely.

A quick note - at a national level, India too is inching towards a "stable binary coalition system", with NDA and UPA, from a unitary INC system, which can deal flexibly with diverse political strains. But Third Front still has political significance as a neutral territory for coming together of these strains.

[ramana]

HN, You are ready.

Start a blog to make your views known.

[amritk]

I have said many times that we will keep running into head winds unless we can get the whole of India to modernize. I think the SRCC stuff works in more progressive states and areas and more progressive communities.

Exactly. And what Modi is trying to do is inspire more people to join the progressive fold. Happily, more and more people are seeing the light, and his flock is growing.

[SwamyG]

A quick note - at a national level, India too is inching towards a "stable binary coalition system", with NDA and UPA, from a unitary INC system, which can deal flexibly with diverse political strains. But Third Front still has political significance as a neutral territory for coming together of these strains.

That is an important idea you bring that I have highlighted. This is pretty much what James Manor writes in his prologue to the book "Caste and Politics in Recent Times: {edited by Rajini Kothari, 2nd edition}. I will quote excerpts than paraphrase......

The contributors to this book were writing at the very end of the era in which Congress Party's organisation was the most important institution in the political system. Most key conflicts occurred not between Congress and opposition parties but within Congress. That party occupied not just the centre ground but much of the left and right as well. It dominated politics in New Delhi and in nearly all of the states in this federal system.

He goes on to say the contributors call it as "Congress system". Exactly the two words you use.

Congress dominance gradually gave way to multiparty competition. By 1983 every major state in the federal system had experienced at least one spell of non-Congress rule.

The 'Congress system' which ensured that party's dominance broke down in part because a political awakening, among the Indian electorate - including increased assertiveness among various castes - generated too many demands upon governments at state and national levels........... Congress dominance also waned because its party organisation suffered the kind of ossification that afflicts all parties - as disciplined and adroit leaders retired or died, and as less effective figures took their place. But the breakdown was accelerated by an unlikely figure, the party's own leader after 1966, Indira Gandhi. She centralised power in her own hands, abandoned intra-party democracy which had prevailed since 1919, and wilfully undermined the substance of her party's organisation - which she saw not as an indispensible instrument through which to govern but as a threat.

Mrs. Gandhi eventually mounted a generalised assault on all democratic institutions - not just Congress but the formal institutions of state - in order to create a vastly over-centralised and illiberal regime, and to promote personal and dynastic rule. That phase of deinstitutionalisation persisted from the early..........and by the rather confused, inconstant leadership of Rajiv Gandhi.

Once the 'Congress system' crumbled, the remarkable heterogeneity that we find across India had more room in which to manifest itself. So the demise of Congress dominance opened the way to more marked variations between regions or states, and within each region.

In 1989, a startling changed opened up a new phase in India's political history which extends to the present. In that year, it became impossible for any single party to win a majority of seats in Lok Sabha. That led to a further crucial change. Massive powers have flowed away from the Prime Minister Office (PMO) which had been dominant for most of the period between 1971 and 1989. It has flowed horizontally to other formal institutions at the national level (Parliament, the judiciary, the Election Commission, the Preseidency, etc.) and vertically downward to the state level and to the federal system more generally. In some states, significant powers have flowed still further downward to elected councils (panchayats) at lower levels. This redistribution of power has enabled the regeneration of many institutions which had suffered damage under Indira Gandhi. Government, as the Constitution intended it, has again become the norm in this more polyarchic system, despite many ambiguities and occasional outrages.

A few reasons why I think the charge on INC should not be that it is dynastic, but on usurping of power and heading scam/scandal one after the other. And, also some reasons why I am wary about any one leader waving the magic charisma and pulling crowd. Our system is still not mature enough, and we are prone to worshiping individuals. Also, NRIs based in America so often bring the 'presidential' form of elections to discussions and make this 'Modi vs Rahul'; they are used to that kind of fight and debate. While definitely Rahul or Modi is the face of their parties, and right now are poised to be the contenders for PM post; what is important is their style of governance and their idea of governance apart from the regular policy matters.

[Theo_Fidel]

Question: why do you think he gets elected with the majorities he gets, since you think he's no great shakes, doesn't pursue the social welfare goals you espouse ? After all, you admit that the state is doing remarkably well under him, and he has been politically stable in a manner no one else has been able to accomplish. Why ? If social issues are a significant matter, how does he manage to maintain widespread - and increasing - popularity over close to 1.5 decades as a state leader ?

If people retain a significant emphasis on the male child, it's not something he can do anything about by fiat. Ditto for education - he can provide a business friendly environment and build schools, but not force enrollment. Nor can he compel them to change their unhealthy dietary habits, though he can and has enabled them to generate substantial income growth from agriculture in what is an arid state. He's ultimately an administrator, and a very good one at that, not a social crusader.

I never said he is no great shakes. He is a good administrator, definitely India top 10.
This is a tricky question. Let me start by saying his first 2 elections were different. The first one he was selected and second one was mostly on Hindu sentiment. So really 2007 and 20012 were the clear statement elections. In 2012 in particular he completely cut himself loose and campaigned without significant BJP or even RSS backing. He more than carried the day with the electorate giving a big thumbs up on his Gujarat economic performance. This was judgement of the people of Gujarat. There have been many dominant politicians. Remember MGR who was undefeated as CM. My view is NM is different things to different people, where he has to play the caste card, he plays the caste card, where he has to play the religion card he plays that as well, the international card and the Business folks card. He understands GJ very very well and what makes the average Gujarati tick. Outsiders including the congress big wigs don't get Gujarat. We tend to think it just his business friendliness, I think its more than that.

WRT to the claim on agriculture growth, I again refer you to the data chart I posted earlier. Gujarat works out to be #7. Again 2011 was a bad agriculture year is missing for Gujarat. Your point on a desert state is noted and is very much to the credit of NM that the Sardar Sarovar was forced through and irrigation expanded.

http://planningcommission.nic.in/data/d ... ook_41.pdf

WRT your social crusader comment, I'm at a loss for words. How can any one look at at a sex ration 918 and declining and say this is a matter for people to decide. I don't think NM has said that has he? He very much has tried to deal with the skewed ratio with some positive and some negative results. He must ask himself why that is so. What he is observing is a crime and he must respond that way. What is the point of having a government otherwise.

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes ... dva-patels

"I hail from north Gujarat and Umiya Mata's land Unjha is a pilgrimage place for us. But, I have to tell this bitter truth to Kadva Patels that Unjha taluka has lowest sex ratio. This sex ratio is not a natural, but is man-made. We have taken a wrong path and this is a result of it,'' Modi said.

"I am saying this as I am sure that they (Kadva Patels) will come out with a strong commitment to resolve this issue of skewed sex ratio," he added.