Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Gus » 26 Jul 2013 13:07

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/batla ... 88107.html
Some time later Salman Khurshid addressed a rally in Azamgarh and revealed that Sonia Gandhi “cried bitterly” on seeing the Batla House pictures, and added that a judicial commission could be set after elections. “I was not a minister at that time but still took the issue of the Batla House encounter to Sonia Gandhi. When we showed photographs of that incident to Mrs Gandhi, she wept bitterly, :rotfl: ” he said, adding, “She asked me to go immediately to the Prime Minister to discuss the matter. I talked to the PM and it was decided that the matter would be further investigated and even the decision to appoint some retired chief justice of the Supreme Court to look into the matter was taken. Everything was ready, however due to election time, we could not do something as some people were in opinion that at the time of election, this thing could not be done”.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Viv S » 26 Jul 2013 13:13

Hari Seldon wrote:The condition will be that if BJP secures 185+ seats then NM becomes PM candidate from the BJP side. If BJP tally is <185 then PM candidacy will be re-opened. If tally falls below 170, NM is again Leader of opposition.


Seat tallies don't give an accurate picture without factoring in the results for coalition and non-coalition parties.

The BJP won 182 seats in 1998 and formed the government which collapsed in a few months. In 1999 it again won 182 seats and this time the govt served out its entire tenure. In contrast, the INC was able to form a govt in 2004 with just 145 seats, barely higher the BJP's tally of 138.

Point is, its the size and stability of the coalition will be critical. Some folks assume coalition building will be a simple business and opportunistic allies will simply fall into place.... after all the Congress manages to perpetually juggle a variety of parties. Problem is the BJP goes into business with a handicap - three entities are totally off-limits; the Left, SP and BSP (in addition to the smaller parties like the RJD, JDS, NCP). Two other critical ones are opposed to Modi, namely the JD(U) and TDP.

Fortunately the NDA is likely to sweep BJP strongholds, do well in UP and TN and hold the fort down in Punjab and Bihar, even though that's not going to be sufficient. This is where someone like Shivraj Singh Chauhan with strong political acceptability can nail down critical support while possibly bringing other parties like the YSRC into play.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Arjun » 26 Jul 2013 13:21

Viv S wrote: This is where someone like Shivraj Singh Chauhan with strong political acceptability can nail down critical support while possibly bringing other parties like the YSRC into play.

Urban India wants someone who fares well in debates and can argue policy with some flair (ala the US presidential debates), along with an administrative track record. From what little I know of Shivraj - he is not suited for the first part. Lets not have pie-in-the-sky dreams for Shivraj that are totally out of synch with what the country wants.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Chandragupta » 26 Jul 2013 13:25

If we want Shivraj so that he can bring in allies like YSRC, then that's like pushing him for all the wrong reasons. Come what may, even if we don't form the government in 2014, BJP needs to go above 200 seats by itself. The brute force in LS is important in pushing forth the agenda that a nationalist BJP is based on, else a BJP led government that has its hands tied only works to demoralize the core voters.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby harbans » 26 Jul 2013 13:32

On the Amartya Sen comment that 'NM will not be my PM': For a person earning and living abroad to comment on NM in such a personal manner is unbecoming. Why? I may not like MMS or Rajiv Gandhi and never have voted for them, but yes they are/ have been my PM. What Amartya Sen sort of says is if NM becomes a PM he may even think of revoking his Indian citizenship. It's only under such circumstances only that NM cannot be his PM! Thus to honor his word he will have to do exactly that. Thus Chandan Mitra's call to revoke his Bharat Ratna should be seen in that light.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby harbans » 26 Jul 2013 13:43

BTW Jagdish Tytler, Musharaff and assorted Saudi Barbarians at the highest levels have US visa's and enter US at will. Remember Saudi Barbaria is the epitome of religious chauvinism and denial of religious freedoms, the very raison de'etre that NM has been denied a visa.

"The Nanavati Commission's original investigation into Tytler's role during the riots had found 'credible evidence' that he played a role in organizing the communal attacks, but the CBI controversially recommended closure of the case in September for lack of evidence and because Jasbir Singh, a witness who moved to US, supposedly could not be traced.

While Modi had been denied US visa, the cable noted that despite his notoriety, "we learned recently that Tytler has a valid B1/B2 visa."


http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes ... -wikileaks

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby kapilrdave » 26 Jul 2013 14:27

SSC is equally if not more 'Hindu Fundamentalist' than NM. So chill.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Singha » 26 Jul 2013 14:39

the desperate search by the MSM/Congis for new 'sickular face who will spite Namo' in the BJP goes on...after LKA , RN, Gadkari declined to play ball ... today SSC.

sure goes to prove how terrified they are of his vote gathering and polarizing potential.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby AjayKK » 26 Jul 2013 14:50

Any argument that states that "SSC etc <insert name here > possibly bring other parties" that will not come if BJP crosses 180 is false, silly, politically immature and 100 % motivated to cap the potential of "the Namo election" and hence will only add into the tally of the Congis.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Yagnasri » 26 Jul 2013 15:13

YSRC is a congress/EJ party and will not side with BJP at any cost. In fact they are worst than INC as for as EJ activities concerned and even corruption. If it comes to that CBN/TDP is any day better option. BJP and its present allies shall win sufficient seats to ensure that no one else will be in a possition to form the governament. With around 220 forming a minority governament with outside support from Amma, CBN etc is possible. If BJP is near 200 then all the shouting against Modi will not deter potencial allies. The Secular certificates are not needed.

I do hope CBN allies with BJP before elections. If done he can sweep AP.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby apoorv » 26 Jul 2013 15:15

Rumour on Twitter (@chinmaykrvd) - Sultanpur MP Sanjay Singh may contest on BJP ticket against Rahul Gandhi in Amethi.
He was Sanjay Gandhi's aid and is from the former royalty of Amethi. Its a nice move. Now bring in Varun Gandhi to Sultanpur
and the family will be tied down to its bourough.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Viv S » 26 Jul 2013 15:19

Arjun wrote:Urban India wants someone who fares well in debates and can argue policy with some flair (ala the US presidential debates), along with an administrative track record. From what little I know of Shivraj - he is not suited for the first part. Lets not have pie-in-the-sky dreams for Shivraj that are totally out of synch with what the country wants.


Eh.. pie-in-the-sky?

One, Urban India barely has the time or inclination to vote, when did it start deciding the result of elections.

Two, we don't have a presidential system regardless of how much urban India may wish for one.

Three, we're a country that speaks 22 official languages and hundreds of dialects. How does somebody who speaks only bare Hindi like Chidambaram engage in a presidential style debate with someone like Modi who speaks only passable English, despite the fact that both have something constructive to say? Even Hindi is the first language for only a third of the population. Not that you could actually have a sensible debate if the state of our parliament is any indication.

Four, when did policy regardless of how much flair its argued with start defining elections? We have a literacy rate of 75% and proportional education achievement (which BTW doesn't imply that someone from a rustic background cannot predict which way the wind is blowing). Its usually the state of the party machinery at grassroots level that makes the crucial difference, not policy debates.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby krishnan » 26 Jul 2013 15:27

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1130726/j ... fJNt8WLe1F

The stock response of the Bharatiya Janata Party to the argument that Godhra makes Narendra Modi politically untouchable is “What about 1984?” There are several inadequate comebacks to that question and the best of them is that no one should use one pogrom to justify another. I once heard this used to good effect by the columnist, Aakar Patel, in a television discussion. This answer has the virtue of not being party-political nor attempting in some grotesque way to demonstrate that the pogrom permitted and encouraged by the Congress government in Delhi in 1984 was morally less horrible than the pogrom that occurred on the BJP’s watch in Gujarat in 2002.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Viv S » 26 Jul 2013 15:31

harbans wrote:What Amartya Sen sort of says is if NM becomes a PM he may even think of revoking his Indian citizenship. It's only under such circumstances only that NM cannot be his PM! Thus to honor his word he will have to do exactly that. Thus Chandan Mitra's call to revoke his Bharat Ratna should be seen in that light.


Now we're just engaging in semantics. 'My PM' could simply mean his choice of PM, interpreting it as a threat to forsake his citizenship is a stretch, to put it mildly.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Sanku » 26 Jul 2013 15:34

krishnan wrote:http://www.telegraphindia.com/1130726/jsp/opinion/story_17155627.jsp#.UfJNt8WLe1F

The stock response of the Bharatiya Janata Party to the argument that Godhra makes Narendra Modi politically untouchable is “What about 1984?” There are several inadequate comebacks to that question and the best of them is that no one should use one pogrom to justify another.


The commentator seems to be missing the obvious fact, that no one is justifying anything, the statement is "if a 1984 pogrom did not make congress, rajeev and sonia untouchable, why should a riot make NaMo untouchable"

Its as simple as that -- the question of working standards.

One can not expect BJP to be holier than Rama to take part in a malla yuddha with dushashana, its neither desirable nor needed. Being a Bhima is good enough.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Arjun » 26 Jul 2013 15:38

Viv S wrote:Eh.. pie-in-the-sky?

One, Urban India barely has the time or inclination to vote, when did it start deciding the result of elections.

Two, we don't have a presidential system regardless of how much urban India may wish for one.

Three, we're a country that speaks 22 official languages and hundreds of dialects. How does somebody who speaks only bare Hindi like Chidambaram engage in a presidential style debate with someone like Modi who speaks only passable English, despite the fact that both have something constructive to say? Even Hindi is the first language for only a third of the population. Not that you could actually have a sensible debate if the state of our parliament is any indication.

Four, when did policy regardless of how much flair its argued with start defining elections? We have a literacy rate of 75% and proportional education achievement (which BTW doesn't imply that someone from a rustic background cannot predict which way the wind is blowing). Its usually the state of the party machinery at grassroots level that makes the crucial difference, not policy debates.

There are 170 urban constituencies today. This number will be shooting up in the next 2 decades...

If BJP wins this elections - it will be by and large because of the urban constituencies switching from Congress to BJP.

I definitely don't want any PM who I have personally not heard speak on major issues ahead of the country. And we need this same sentiment shared by all citizens. Democracy should not imply obscurantism - shouldn't we have some minimum standards ?

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Viv S » 26 Jul 2013 16:15

AjayKK wrote:Any argument that states that "SSC etc <insert name here > possibly bring other parties" that will not come if BJP crosses 180 is false, silly, politically immature and 100 % motivated to cap the potential of "the Namo election" and hence will only add into the tally of the Congis.


Yeah, that should cover all bases. :lol:

The fall of the NDA govt in 1998 (where the BJP has 180 seats) is an adequate example of the necessity of a strong coalition. Even in 1999 the NDA was able to form the govt only because of outside support from a dominant TDP. At 180 seats, the BJP still needs another 90 to form the govt. Between the Shiv Sena (8-10), AIADMK (25), SAD (5), AGP (2-3) [all generous assessments]. That's 45 seats with perhaps a few more from the MNS. That still leaves the NDA a good 40 seats short of the half-way mark.

As of today, Modi despite his many strengths lacks what Vajpayee brought and Shivraj Singh Chauhan brings to the table; broad acceptability across the political spectrum. Given that every single seat counts, the support of the JD(U), TDP, TMC, which Modi cannot deliver, could make or break the govt.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Viv S » 26 Jul 2013 16:20

Arjun wrote:There are 170 urban constituencies today. This number will be shooting up in the next 2 decades...

If BJP wins this elections - it will be by and large because of the urban constituencies switching from Congress to BJP.

I definitely don't want any PM who I have personally not heard speak on major issues ahead of the country. And we need this same sentiment shared by all citizens. Democracy should not imply obscurantism - shouldn't we have some minimum standards ?


I agree that the share of the urban vote will inevitably increase going into the future, but for better or worse this is where we are today.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby krishnan » 26 Jul 2013 16:20

16:06 Live! Cong to meet on Telangana at 5 pm, time to take decision, says Digvijaya: The Congress Core Committee is to meet on Telangana at 5 pm today. Congress general secretary Digvijaya Singh says that the process of consultation is over, it is time to take decisions.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Viv S » 26 Jul 2013 16:39

Narayana Rao wrote:I do hope CBN allies with BJP before elections. If done he can sweep AP.


He might support the BJP but not if its led by Modi. Back in 2002, it was Chandrababu Naidu who had demanded Modi be expelled for the 2002 riots and threatened to walk out of the NDA.



Supporting NDA after Gujarat riots was a mistake: Naidu

Telugu Desam Party president N Chandrababu Naidu on Wednesday admitted that continuing the support to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance at the Centre after 2002 Gujarat riots was a mistake which spoiled TDP's image as a secular party.


Modi's effort to rope in TDP and TRS into NDA fold falls flat

Moreover, Naidu has not been in good terms with Modi since the 2002 communal riots in Godhra. In fact, the TDP president was the first person to demand the sacking of Modi after Gujarat riots and had even threatened to withdraw support to the NDA then. Though he was pacified by senior BJP leaders like M Venkaiah Naidu, such was the animosity of Naidu towards Modi that he refused to nominate another TDP MP as the Lok Sabha Speaker, after the death of G M C Balayogi in a helicopter crash in March 2002, in protest against the Gujarat riots.


BJP's fortunes will not improve under Modi: TDP

The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) Sunday said the BJP's fortunes would not improve with Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi leading the party's campaign in 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby fanne » 26 Jul 2013 16:59

Let's hope Modi does wonders for BJP. As of now 5 states where he can make difference are - UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharastra, Assam and Karnataka. The other states are already decided
The various polls are showing Maha is neck to neck between UPA and NDA with advantage UPA. Most voters have already made up their mind. Worse, biggest BJP supporters - the young and the yuppies (even traditional Gujrati voters in Mumbai prefers to take vacation on the polling date) may not turn up. Except for Vidharbha for BJP , Con and NCP has a better org in Maha everywhere. The mool mantra for BJP, get all your votes count. Strengthen your org and get people out. Modi with his Charisma (read carefully please) within BJP supporters has the best bet (LKA, SS, SSC cannot pull this off).
Bihar - Another state (probably the only state as of now), has at least 95% of voters already made up their mind. Recent NK gaffe like Bihar ki beti and conspiracy in Mid day meal will get BJP some extra points and maybe votes. The big realignment will take place when con forges alliance (my take is they will go with RJD). There will be some movement of vote to BJP. But the party that will carry the state is, who has the base energized. Namo is the man. Though he has to be very careful in his speech. He has to pamper to Bihari pride (and saying Sardar Patel helped Rajendra prasad become President is not it). Sure he can pick enough Bihari historical figures.
Karnataka - I hope polls are wrong, and there is not enough advantage for UPA. I trust the MSM to fudge and do polling assuming BJP + KJP does not forge alliance. I also have a feeling that Namo will sway quite decent amount of voters to BJP from neutral and opposition camp. I hope they do a grand alliance.
Assam - Though small in number and in many seats BJP is not in fight, but probably with allies and Modi rallies, it can pick at least 7 of them. Hoping AGP goes Kaput soon with part wholesale moving to BJP. That will give Assam its 2 party system (along with few Secular parties)
UP - This is where Modi magic can and will work. Org + floating voters + right strategy + caste mobilisation, why be happy with 33 seats, why not 60?
rgds,
fanne

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby SaiK » 26 Jul 2013 17:03

Hasn't CBN failed terribly for AP? He ignored the poor and needy on developments?

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Neela » 26 Jul 2013 17:34

krishnan wrote:
16:06 Live! Cong to meet on Telangana at 5 pm, time to take decision, says Digvijaya: The Congress Core Committee is to meet on Telangana at 5 pm today. Congress general secretary Digvijaya Singh says that the process of consultation is over, it is time to take decisions.



How long before elections then?

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Viv S » 26 Jul 2013 17:38

fanne wrote:The mool mantra for BJP, get all your votes count. Strengthen your org and get people out. Modi with his Charisma (read carefully please) within BJP supporters has the best bet (LKA, SS, SSC cannot pull this off).


Unfortunately he's also an obstacle to garnering the backing of parties that once supported AB Vajpayee's NDA.

Trinamool will never support Modi: Mamata

"We have never supported Narendra Modi. We will never support him," Banerjee said while addressing a panchayat poll rally at Rampurhat in Birbhum district.

Bihar - Another state (probably the only state as of now), has at least 95% of voters already made up their mind. Recent NK gaffe like Bihar ki beti and conspiracy in Mid day meal will get BJP some extra points and maybe votes. The big realignment will take place when con forges alliance (my take is they will go with RJD).


Gaffes will not impact the result of the election in the least. And Modi outreach too will impact only the more urban section of Bihar's population. Its a small minority that watches television and its even smaller minority that's paying attention. It'll be decided by the performance of the party organisations (the BJP's state unit is quite efficient) and the public satisfaction (or dissatisfaction) with the JD(U). But again, in a four way it isn't realistic to expect a significant gains.

Karnataka - I hope polls are wrong, and there is not enough advantage for UPA. I trust the MSM to fudge and do polling assuming BJP + KJP does not forge alliance. I also have a feeling that Namo will sway quite decent amount of voters to BJP from neutral and opposition camp. I hope they do a grand alliance.


Narendra Modi's campaigning during the assembly elections resulted in little to no difference. Unlikely to swing the vote this time round.

Assam - Though small in number and in many seats BJP is not in fight, but probably with allies and Modi rallies, it can pick at least 7 of them. Hoping AGP goes


Both the AGP and the BJP are weak in Assam. The BJP remains restricted to a few urban areas. 7 out of 14 LS seats is at the extreme end of optimism.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby fanne » 26 Jul 2013 17:52

Viv S wrote:
fanne wrote:The mool mantra for BJP, get all your votes count. Strengthen your org and get people out. Modi with his Charisma (read carefully please) within BJP supporters has the best bet (LKA, SS, SSC cannot pull this off).


Unfortunately he's also an obstacle to garnering the backing of parties that supported AB Vajpayee's NDA

First BJP has to get seats for itself. These extra seats over and above what BJP can get, UP (+25), Bihar (+7), Assam (+4), Karnataka (+10), Jharkhand (+7) around 53 seats (not to count other states), these numbers no allies can bring. If BJP were to get 175 and Namo can push it to 225, Many secular allies may not be needed.

Bihar - Another state (probably the only state as of now), has at least 95% of voters already made up their mind. Recent NK gaffe like Bihar ki beti and conspiracy in Mid day meal will get BJP some extra points and maybe votes. The big realignment will take place when con forges alliance (my take is they will go with RJD).


Gaffes will not impact the result of the election in the least. And Modi outreach too will impact only the more urban section of Bihar's population. Its a small minority that watches television and its even smaller minority that's paying attention. It'll be decided by the performance of the party organisations (the BJP's state unit is quite efficient) and the public satisfaction (or dissatisfaction) with the JD(U). But again, in a four way it isn't realistic to expect a significant gains.

Actually in 4 way (but it will be 3 way and ultimately 2 way, I guess Niku will get squeezed out. See BJP rally in Nalanda yesterday, heart of Kurmi belt and Hometown of Shri 786 Secular NK), small gains bring handsome returns. If Con does not join either front, BJP will have a bumper harvest. 4 way split voting, BJP will get not less than 30 seats out of 40.

Karnataka - I hope polls are wrong, and there is not enough advantage for UPA. I trust the MSM to fudge and do polling assuming BJP + KJP does not forge alliance. I also have a feeling that Namo will sway quite decent amount of voters to BJP from neutral and opposition camp. I hope they do a grand alliance.


Narendra Modi's campaigning during the assembly elections resulted in little to no difference. Unlikely to swing the vote this time round.

KA is one state that has voted very differently in Lok Sabha and assembly, when the polls were held on the same date (arguably the only state, some states of late like AP has shown little divergance). In LS it gave homogeneous advantage to BJP while handed the assembly to Con or the humble farmer. Read please

Assam - Though small in number and in many seats BJP is not in fight, but probably with allies and Modi rallies, it can pick at least 7 of them. Hoping AGP goes


Both the AGP and the BJP are weak in Assam. The BJP remains restricted to a few urban areas. 7 out of 14 LS seats is at the extreme end of optimism.


Nope, BJP + AGP + Bodo (1 tribal SEAT) do have a chance in 7-10 SETAS. BJP is not only a Urban phenomenon in Assam. It has been winning and this time will win all 3 Barak Valley setas.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby abhik » 26 Jul 2013 17:55

Viv S wrote:
Sushupti wrote:D4 and C-system have identified their next Niku.

Really?! Shivraj Singh Chauhan, a turncoat?
Yes he's a potential PM - a moderate performance by the NDA in 2014 would make him an ideal compromise candidate acceptable to the BJP, RSS, NDA and non-NDA potential allies. But given his record, its a pity that the prospect of India's most popular CM (he is that, whether you rubbish the poll or not) as PM contender worries people.

He may be the the most popular CM in his state but NaMo's pan Indian popularity is undisputed. A lot of people will only vote for the BJP because of him. We all have heard him speak dozens of times and know what he stands for. The only time I have heard SSC speak was in context of NaMo. He is just an unknown quantity to me. And I'm sure this is the case with most people outside of MP. NaMo has had to put all a lot of work to be where he is, gaining so many peoples confidence. If he is propped against NaMo especially post poll then he will be looked at as an usurper, no matter how popular he is in his own state.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Viv S » 26 Jul 2013 18:08

abhik wrote:He may be the the most popular CM in his state but NaMo's pan Indian popularity is undisputed. A lot of people will only vote for the BJP because of him. We all have heard him speak dozens of times and know what he stands for. The only time I have heard SSC speak was in context of NaMo. He is just an unknown quantity to me. And I'm sure this is the case with most people outside of MP. NaMo has had to put all a lot of work to be where he is, gaining so many peoples confidence. If he is propped against NaMo especially post poll then he will be looked at as an usurper, no matter how popular he is in his own state.


Well 'we' are the urban educated widescreen TV owning middle class. The election will be decided by the response of the masses living in the small towns and rural hinterland for whom lining up to vote in the blistering heat is one of the few opportunities they get to exercise a degree of influence over their destinies, however small and fleeting it may be. Their point of contact with the political class is the local party worker, the junior-most of political functionaries. Modi's speeches might go some way in energizing and enthusing the party's organisation but its no substitute for the slow slog of campaigning at the grassroots level.
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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Viv S » 26 Jul 2013 18:32

fanne wrote:First BJP has to get seats for itself. These extra seats over and above what BJP can get, UP (+25), Bihar (+7), Assam (+4), Karnataka (+10), Jharkhand (+7) around 53 seats (not to count other states), these numbers no allies can bring. If BJP were to get 175 and Namo can push it to 225, Many secular allies may not be needed.


225 seats in 2014? I'm afraid you're getting carried away with your own optimism. If the BJP can get 175 seats with or without Modi, it'll be considered it an excellent result.

Actually in 4 way (but it will be 3 way and ultimately 2 way, I guess Niku will get squeezed out. See BJP rally in Nalanda yesterday, heart of Kurmi belt and Hometown of Shri 786 Secular NK), small gains bring handsome returns. If Con does not join either front, BJP will have a bumper harvest. 4 way split voting, BJP will get not less than 30 seats out of 40.


Reducing the JD(U) and RJD to single digits? Like I said, you're getting carried away.


KA is one state that has voted very differently in Lok Sabha and assembly, when the polls were held on the same date (arguably the only state, some states of late like AP has shown little divergance). In LS it gave homogeneous advantage to BJP while handed the assembly to Con or the humble farmer. Read please


Its voted against the national trend. Given that the national trend is BJP-leaning this time around, expect Karnatake to lean-INC.

Nope, BJP + AGP + Bodo (1 tribal SEAT) do have a chance in 7-10 SETAS. BJP is not only a Urban phenomenon in Assam. It has been winning and this time will win all 3 Barak Valley setas


Bodoland People's Front is an INC ally. The Gogoi govt swept the assembly elections in 2011 reducing the BJP and AGP to a total of 15 seats in a house of 126. A rebound hard enough to win 7 out 14 LS seats is unlikely to say the least.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby geeth » 26 Jul 2013 18:45

Well 'we' are the urban educated widescreen TV owning middle class. The election will be decided by the response of the masses living in the small towns and rural hinterland for whom lining up to vote in the blistering heat is one of the few opportunities they get to exercise a degree of influence on their destinies, however small it may be. Their point of contact with the political class is the local party worker, the junior-most of political functionaries. Modi's speeches might go some way in energizing and enthusing the party's organisation but its no substitute for the slow slog of campaigning at the grassroots level.


Well, no dispute about the hard work to be done in villages..More than that, BJP has to deal with the saudagars of votes within their party first. In places like Kerala, where they don't have much chance, they do this - selling votes to the highest bidder. They do it particularly in Kasargod and Trivandrum and to some extend Palakkad, pocket boroughs of BJP. Additionally, CPM and Kangress collude in these three constituencies to ensure BJP defeat.

But people in villages have started asking..who is this Modi? What has he done for people to talk so much about him? It has to be drilled into the mind of local folks what he has done. Even then it is a herculean task. And people like me does not have the patience..

Other day, without any provocation my wife was taunting me..She was saying - see what the paragon of virtues Mr. Narendra Modi has done to Isharat Jehan and Pranesh Pillai! two innocents shot dead in cold blood and that too in broad day light. Obviouslly, my blood was boiling. But I was wondering more like..how come she knows so much about Isharat jehan, who generally doesn't have the habit of reading the News paper too deeply? The answer is, MSM splashes the news all over, so that even a casual reader won't miss it.

There is a long way to go for Modi and BJP. But, the harder they work UNITEDLY, the better will be the results. I know, I have stated the obvious, but the point is, even the villagers know, and they can be converted, so that even if they don't vote for BJP, they can be stopped to vote for Kangress or Commies.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Yagnasri » 26 Jul 2013 19:01

I was in MP while he was there as CM and he is ok. But do not have any great national level ideas. At least do not speak about such ideas. Admin also not so clean. No major currption allegations are there on him. Give lot of importence to agri sector. One thing is he hardly has any opposition in the state for sometime. No leader worth mentioning is there in MP INC and people like Diggi and Sindhiya already at Delhi. His leadership qualities under serious presure/opposition were not tested so for. But I do not consider him as a turncoat or part of D4 plan. An outsider surely. FC Rajput like Rajnath Singh.

We are all readying too much and imagining too many consipiracy theories.

CBN lost the plot of having a national visition after 2004 defeat. He lost due to his negloect of the rural voters and due to his over confidence. Yet he blames Modi and BJP for that. His condidate selection in 2004 assembly elections was horrible. But unfortunately he is now proved to be a liability as he occupy anti INC space in AP and doing a terrible job of it for 9 years. Of late he is picking up but still need a stronger organisational buildup and money power to fight INC and Jagan criminal gang (and TRS).

I wonder if there is an understanding between CBN and INC that he will not alley with BJP and cases againt him were not persuaded. I remember all cases against him were vasined the moment INC came to power in 2004. One wonders. After all he is very capable man and why can't he see the advantages of NDA.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Hari Seldon » 26 Jul 2013 19:14

So we now have a guy who's allegedly pro-BJP but clearly anti-NM. On the other extreme we have folks who are pro-AAP and pro-NM. Weird bedfellows does desi politics make.

Anyway, I'm going by wise sage shri Atriji's words... aiming for Delhi this time round is over-reach only. This time, look only to consolidate at *all* sub-Delhi levels: from panchayat to state level. Buld hold over org and all and ensure a weak center that can't do too much harm and will result in a (hopefully) mid-term. That's possible only if INC collapses to 60% or so of its current tally.

Else, NM shall hopefully move to Delhi as leader of opposition and take on the Dilli-bill system at its core. Or so I hope.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby fanne » 26 Jul 2013 19:22

So then make it, without Modi BJP is in 150 ranges, with him, it is in 180 range, that gain of 30 extra is hard for any potential ally to bring.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Muppalla » 26 Jul 2013 19:26

fanne wrote:So then make it, without Modi BJP is in 150 ranges, with him, it is in 180 range, that gain of 30 extra is hard for any potential ally to bring.


In a Q & A with RNS couple of days ago when he visited our town we had this discussion. Per him, BJP is not interested in going in pre-poll alliances with every tom dick and harry. They will go aggressive and they are confident on getting a number that will attract many get into post-poll alliances.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby RoyG » 26 Jul 2013 19:37

Telengana has been given the go-ahead by Sonia.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby disha » 26 Jul 2013 19:44

^^^ Blow to Modi?

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby muraliravi » 26 Jul 2013 20:09

Viv S wrote:
The fall of the NDA govt in 1998 (where the BJP has 180 seats) is an adequate example of the necessity of a strong coalition. Even in 1999 the NDA was able to form the govt only because of outside support from a dominant TDP. At 180 seats, the BJP still needs another 90 to form the govt. Between the Shiv Sena (8-10), AIADMK (25), SAD (5), AGP (2-3) [all generous assessments]. That's 45 seats with perhaps a few more from the MNS. That still leaves the NDA a good 40 seats short of the half-way mark.

As of today, Modi despite his many strengths lacks what Vajpayee brought and Shivraj Singh Chauhan brings to the table; broad acceptability across the political spectrum. Given that every single seat counts, the support of the JD(U), TDP, TMC, which Modi cannot deliver, could make or break the govt.


Let me tell you how BJP will get the 90 seats.

1. Going by most surveys SAD on an average will get 6 seats.
2. Shiv Sena will get 11-13 seats (the CSDS survey cannot be ur sole point of reference, there are ton of other surveys on Maharashtra) http://www.newsbullet.in/india/34-more/42009-Major reverses for UPA in 4 key states: Survey
3. MNS and RPI will give about 5 seats
4. Modi will for sure strike a deal with INLD (just wait) and they will for sure deliver at least 2 seats
5. Assam, AGP will get 3 seats
6. A deal with Marandi will be announced by September and he will give 4 seats
7. Why pipe dream on DMK/Cong boss. Jaya will get a minimum of 30 seats

Thats 62 seats right there. So they need 28 more.

Do you think that in this situation after an election, BJD will not give its 13-15 odd seats. (A state with 1-2% X-tian and Muslim pop.), he has no reasons to oppose Modi (they have no good reason to enter into a pre-poll alliance and have all the reasons to go into a post poll alliance). TRS will also cave in with 9 seats. At that stage they will need 5 seats. Are u telling me that 5 IND's or 5 MP's from JDU, RJD, BSP, SP or a ton of other parties will not switch over. Dalals like JMM, RLD are also there. Only key here, Modi needs to drive BJP to at least 175 seats. I am seeing 165 as of now. He needs to swing 1% more vote for 10 more seats or make sure MNS and SS have a covert alliance.

On top of all this, the csds-cnn-ibn survey on bihar is a real hoax. Check all the surveys that came after the split and every single survey said that JDU just has 14% vote and BJP has the highest vote share in the state. But I agree they will get only 12 seats because lalu and cong will go together. But of all parties go alone, BJP can go upto 20.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Muppalla » 26 Jul 2013 20:35

RoyG wrote:Telengana has been given the go-ahead by Sonia.


In the long run it will just delete INC from India(if it survives the onslaught) but in the short run this will help in getting UPA-3.

Forgetting all the rhona-dhona and reasons, this is the best decision for UPA-3 to be back. Here are the reasons:

(1) First by giving Telangana they wiped out Congress from Andhra and Rayalaseema regions of AP
(2) They will align with MIM and TRS to sweep Telangana (mostly a merger with TRS on the cards)
(3) TDP is wiped out as it is playing both sides (irrespective of its revival)
(4) INC has smartly asked Jagan to be 100% on the anti-Telangana side. It was Jagan's MLAs who resigned enmasse in the latest round
(5) Jagan will win Andhra+Rayalaseema on an anti-T state wave. No EJ-VJ bs and it is pure sentiment and emotion
(6) Now if Congress using the 17 seats of T pulls the over all tally to 140 at national level, Jagan with 25 seats will be part of UPA-3

In summary we can keep discussion and abusing wealth of AP, elites of Andhras, EJ ism, abuse the T people as some dumbos and drunkards but the state was raped using the emotions on both sides. This is a replica of Robert Clive's rule. APites are in a blackhole that they are not even in suitable mindset to think about nation. This is the greatest achievement of UPA rule.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Manish_Sharma » 26 Jul 2013 21:29

How much roles gurus will play in getting votes for modi? Like Sarv Shri Asaram Bapu, Ramdev, Sri sri ravi shankar & Ramesh Bhai Ojha etc.

I feel if these above + others also ask their followers to vote for bjp, their devotees are going to do exactly that.

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby Manish_Sharma » 26 Jul 2013 21:37

Hari Seldon wrote:Anyway, I'm going by wise sage shri Atriji's words... aiming for Delhi this time round is over-reach only. This time, look only to consolidate at *all* sub-Delhi levels: from panchayat to state level. Buld hold over org and all and ensure a weak center that can't do too much harm and will result in a (hopefully) mid-term. That's possible only if INC collapses to 60% or so of its current tally.


Hari ji, did you read johnee ji's disagreement also? In case you didn't here it is:

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=6489&p=1442084&hilit=atri#p1442084
Saar ji,
IMHO, what you are saying is wrong at several levels. You are characterizing the potential threats as 'no tod'(invincible), I don't agree with this characterizing. There is always a 'tod', even the shakti had the 'tod': divert its use on someone expendable. So, everything has a 'tod'. All the threats that India and Hindus face have 'tods'. Modi is being supported by people hoping that he will find those 'tods' and minimize the loses. And if need be, Modi's career is put on firing line, to save the country and people. So, according to the scenario presented by you, if there is no other way out then Modi has to become the Ghatotkacha(i.e. risk his political career), to save the desh.

What you are saying is that people need to experience worse before they are prepared for the better. This kind of thinking, I believe, is really really wrong. I am reminded of a story where the king is asked to decide who is the mother of the child. Two women claim to be the mothers of the same child and the courtroom is at loss of finding out who is the actual mother. The king declares that both women will get the child and for this the child will but cut into two halves, and one half will go to each woman. This declaration forces the real mother to say that she rather have her child live(even if the child is estranged from her) than die(and she gets a half part of his body). What is the difference between fake mother and real mother, if both of them had agreed to cutting the child into two pieces? Similarly, what kind of thinking is it to want one's own people to suffer(whatever the reason maybe)? I can understand someone saying it in frustration or anger, but to bandy it as a strategy!!! That is plain wrong.

This so-called strategy is based on the formula that 'things have to go bad, before they get better'. But, this is not some universal truth. Prevention is always better than cure(in many ways). So, one must always try to prevent(until the very last). One does not have to let the things go bad. Next, things are already pretty bad. People are already fed up. And they are looking for a good leader. If Modi is such a leader, then let him stand up to occasion and deliver. If he is unable to do so, fine. But, atleast, let him try. The whole defeatist attitude even before he tries, is really baffling. The same applies to those who talk about Modi not being able to attract allies. As if Kongis had any allies before 2004! UPA was formed after the elections. It is a great thing that NDA has survived despite being in opposition for so long. But that does not mean parties give up their best leader to please some unreliable ally(who may jump ship anytime). The right way is to project the best leader, go full throttle, expose the corruptions and flaws of the present setup and propose solutions. Then the ball is in people's court. Either way, one has done one's job. That is the message of gita: Karmani eva adhikarah te, ma phaleshu kadachana(you have authority only on actions, never in the results). No one can guarantee results. No one knows what is stored for tomorrow. Any thing, literally anything, may happen any second. All that one has in one's hands is to do the best that one can. Thats all. The results are a pretty complex thing. It is simply impossible to calculate the affects of any action. Otherwise, there would have already been super-computers predicting the future. It is not possible because the results are simply unpredictable and can vary on the slightest remotest factor. And no individual or group has control on all the factors that affect a result. So, everyone is taking a risk of failure whenever they attempt anything, anything! So, what to do in such circumstances? Karmani eva adhikarah te, ma phaleshu kadachana. Thats all.

You are also making another mistake in assuming that things will always get better after they have gone bad. This is a false assumption. India and Hindus are very lucky that even when things went really bad, they survived. That does not mean, that things always get better after they have gone bad. Look at so many other cultures and countries in the past and present! They have just gone bad and from there to worse. So, things don't get better just because they have gone bad. There is no limit to degradation. One can keep degrading. It is like a bottomless pit... There is no way to bounce back. So, it is imperative that things are set right before it is too late. The dienasty and other assorted foreign chamchas will jump the ship(many of them already consider themselves as foreign). So, they lose nothing. Even if they lose something and in the process, the desh is irretrievably damaged, then what is the use? Is it a consolation?

I think that now is the critical time to save the desh. Another term of this kind of disastrous governance can have serious impact on desh for generations. It will also weaken the desh in its fight against the jihadi and EJ. Already the last 10 years have done a tremendous damage.

There is a limit to how much pain a body can take. Beyond a certain limit, the body will die. The same applies to the culture, civilization and country. Indian and Hindu culture, civilization and country have shown tremendous resolve and have survived(by fighting back) for ages against different kinds of threats. But, that does not mean one willfully wishes more pain on the body, especially when it is weak, emaciated and diseased. If there is a poisoned organ that needs to be removed, it needs to be done is a surgical fashion. Not in the manner of a butcher...

Anyway, the threats will never cease. This will keep on going. One is neutralized, another pops up. Malsi is not going to last forever. It will be the neutralized or it will mutate, then something new will be born. When that is gone, something else will come up. It is an eternal struggle: deva asura sangrama...

Each generation has to do what they can do. Thats all. There are no permanent threats or permanent solutions. Today, Modi is seen as the solution to the problems, so he is being supported and encouraged. Trying to shield Modi(his political career) is counter-productive. One need not shield Modi(his political career). One needs to shield the desh.

Karna with Shakti weapon is much lesser threat than Karna with Kavacha(armor) and Kundala. Karna traded Kavacha and Kundala for the weapon. And he was foretold that Arjuna is invincible and Krishna is the God. No shakti can do anything to them. Still, Karna decided to try it out. He did not simply accept the defeat. He decided to try his best and if he still failed so be it. Karna gave a great account of himself in the final battle and is still remembered today as a great warrior. That is all one has to do, do one's job to the best of one's ability, if one still loses, then there is no shame in it. But to start out with a defeatist mindset is a total no no.

----
Loh purush was the one around whom people rallied in the 90s. Now, its Modi, tomorrow someone else will come. When a thing is not used in the right time, then it becomes negative. Alasyam amritam visham. A nourishing dish will rot and become uneatable after some time. Similarly, leaders or ideologies, are not evergreen. They have a shelf life and have to be used when they are useful. If they are not used at the right time and instead are used in the wrong time, they play a negative role. Loh purush should have become the PM, it was he who won the seats for the party. But, he could not. Now, he is playing the negative role. If Modi does not get his chance, then in the same manner modi will also become a negative for some future leader.

Loh purush has been in contact with the salt water for too long and has become brittle. He was taking up the Hindutva cause when everyone was enamored(or perceived as) enamored by the nehruvian secularism and socialism. But given his formative years, he is bound to have limitations. I think Negi saar said this.

Loh purush time is now gone. All said and done, he could not even defeat the MMS. Even MMS was successful in mocking him. That is a serious failure. It shows that the people(specially, the supporters of BJP) simply rejected him. It means many of them didn't care to vote. He was that uninspiring. He is not inspiring anyone now. He does not fetch any votes or seats.

As for his dilli cotorie, all of them are useless dilli billis. Many of them are completely compromised by the mainos. Even the SS! Mere oratory skills are not enough. One needs to be able to bring votes and seats.

Rajnath Singh, the president of BJP, has openly admitted that Modi is the most popular leader. All the surveys are showing the same thing. MSM and SM are reflecting the same thing. Most people's daily interactions are in similar vein. There is absolutely no doubt at all that no one can compare to Modi, rightnow, in terms of popularity and vote catching ability. Modi is in a completely different league right now. That does not mean he will always be popular. Remember a big part of Modi's charm is that he is successful i.e. he has continued to win elections despite all the mud and dirt thrown at him by msm, ngos and assorted kongi chamchas. So, if Modi loses the election(regardless of whether he is projected as a PM or not, the defeat will be seen as a defeat of Modi's brand), then the charm of Modi will take serious dent.

Anyway, I don't think voters appreciate this kind of backroom nonsense put up by the lohpurush. Such things will have negative impact on voters. Many supporters will not vote as a sign of protest. Some will even vote negatively. And finally, the fence-sitters will refrain. That leaves the regular c-system and its adherents.

So, Modi is straightforward choice for PM candidate. BJP should project him and aim for the largest party in parliament. Simple. If it can do that, then all the allies will automatically come. If it cannot do that, then no ally is going to be useful. If after the elections, there is a need for compromise due to lack of seats, then that is understandable(perhaps), but to start out with compromises is silly.


http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=6489&p=1449323&hilit=atri#p1449323
Atri Saar,
you had asked me to reply to a post on this thread. Fundamentally, I disagree with the metaphor(Indra-Shakti). I tend to look at the situation as Sita Amma is in Ravana's custody. She needs to be saved and immediately. There is not much time left. If there is too much delay then Ravana may resort to any kind of barbarity. He may even end up killing Her. So, Sri Rama needs to come to Sita Amma's rescue. Sri Rama depends on the Army of monkeys and bears. They are disparate groups. All of them need to be united under single banner and Sri Rama needs to lead them. There are people like Hanuman who are very powerful, but do not recognize their own power, so they behave like a common monkey.

Sri Rama == Sanatana Dharma/Hinduism
Sita Amma == Bharat/India
Ravana == Kongis and C-system
Rakshasas == EJs, Jihadis and other anti-SD ideologies(like Commie).
Monkeys == Hindus.

If and when a weak leadership is at the helm, many entities get emboldened. The problem is that the present leadership is weak towards everyone except the Hindus(or Indics). So, it tries to suppress the Hindus(or Indics) and everyone else is emboldened. The internal and external threats grow in power. The latest China's episode must be viewed from this angle.(I had planned to write this reply before. At that time, I was not aware of China's latest intrusion. Later, when I came to know of it, it was almost as if confirmation of what I was thinking. So, that episode convinced me that there is a great urgency that a strong and rooted leadership comes to the power quickly).

The flaw in your strategy is that you are concentrating only on the dynasty. Yes, the dynasty is the major thorn. But, one should not think that when the dynasty is weakened the power will automatically flow into the hands of the righteous. When weak people occupy power, it emboldens the others to try for the power. Infact, history shows that same. As soon as, Sultanate weakened, Mughals came. Even in the sultanate period, many dynasties were replaced, and all of them were hostile towards the locals(Hindus/Indics). When the Mughals weakened, Brits came. Actually, I think that this was the flaw in Maratha Strategy. Maratha strategy seems similar to what you are saying(approx.). They allowed the Mughals to be at the head and wanted to slowly replace them in a systematic manner. Perhaps, they were afraid of biting more than they could chew. I can understand their thinking. But, I think it is wrong.

The right strategy is to grab the power as soon as it is offered. Then, the management can be taken care of. Even if Marathas could not have the complete control of India, it would not have mattered. But it seems to me that by allowing the Mughals to survive, Marathas erred. In contrast, Brits did not allow the Mughal royalty to survive. They took over the power as soon as it was there to be taken.

Another flaw in your strategy is: you are thinking that Mainos have really messed up the things. And this is not the right time to take over from them. The problem is that such people will keep messing up. There will always be one crisis or thew other waiting in the wings to blow up in the face. So, there is never really a good time to take over from such people. It seems pappu also thought in the same manner. Pappu wanted to take over the power when everything was fine. And since there was never such a time period, he could never take over the power. He kept waiting...

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Re: Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Postby RamaY » 26 Jul 2013 21:44

Muppalla wrote:In the long run it will just delete INC from India(if it survives the onslaught) but in the short run this will help in getting UPA-3.

Forgetting all the rhona-dhona and reasons, this is the best decision for UPA-3 to be back. Here are the reasons:

(1) First by giving Telangana they wiped out Congress from Andhra and Rayalaseema regions of AP
(2) They will align with MIM and TRS to sweep Telangana (mostly a merger with TRS on the cards)
(3) TDP is wiped out as it is playing both sides (irrespective of its revival)
(4) INC has smartly asked Jagan to be 100% on the anti-Telangana side. It was Jagan's MLAs who resigned enmasse in the latest round
(5) Jagan will win Andhra+Rayalaseema on an anti-T state wave. No EJ-VJ bs and it is pure sentiment and emotion
(6) Now if Congress using the 17 seats of T pulls the over all tally to 140 at national level, Jagan with 25 seats will be part of UPA-3

In summary we can keep discussion and abusing wealth of AP, elites of Andhras, EJ ism, abuse the T people as some dumbos and drunkards but the state was raped using the emotions on both sides. This is a replica of Robert Clive's rule. APites are in a blackhole that they are not even in suitable mindset to think about nation. This is the greatest achievement of UPA rule.


+1. I only hope against hope that these developments will force CBN to become SAD of AP.


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