Hari Seldon wrote:
Dr Gautam Sen writes like a true blue BR jingo guru onlee...
Love his writings! Truly BResque!
Any new political entity has some advantages and disadvantages.
a) It has a clean history. So, it can go bonkers on the opponents claiming that 'sab chor hain'.
b) It can claim that heaven can be created on the earth, only if the parties and politicians had done their job properly.
Both the above points are not necessarily wrong. And many people believe in the above points in almost all societies regardless of the system.
a) They don't have many funds or sponsors. So, they are not able to compete with established players.
b) They are unable to get their message across to the audience.
c) They don't have any dedicated cadre or vote-bank.
d) They are novices who can be tricked by their opponents.
e) They are not seen as viable option.
These dis-advantages do not allow new political entities to immediately play any major role. They have to work for a long time on the ground to neutralize the above dis-advantages.
But, when a new entity is helped or supported by old established entity(for some nefarious reason), then the whole scenario changes. The old entity can make sure that the new entity gets funds, vote-banks/cadre, good advisers, and media coverage. With these tools, the new entity can grab lots of public attention and project itself as a new and clean alternative. People will always like to give atleast one opportunity to such new entities just to check out what they are made of. It is hope and curiosity. Clean history and huge promises definitely play a very attractive role. But despite all that, the new entity may not be seen as a viable alternative.
Now, Fordriwal is this kind of new entity. He is getting sponsored by old entities. So, he has advantages of being a new comer while also having advantages of being an old player. His only drawback is that he is not seen as viable entity in many areas. To counter that a sort of blind optimism is sought to be built.
Coming to dilli decision:
lotus had a tough task. I don't think there was any easy decision here. If lotus had formed the Govt with jod-thod, Fordri would have used it to go to town to pain the lotus as a party of crooked and dishonest people hungry for power. In one swoop, he'd have done equal equal between lotus and kongis(who have been in power for 15 yrs). If there were no immediate parliamentary elections, then no doubt lotus would have done just that without caring what Fordri did or said. But, there are elections in immediate aftermath, not just in dilli but entire country. So, they decided to give up smaller thing for the bigger thing. They decided to take moral highroute.
This meant that the ball was in Fordri's court. Fordri could have easily gone for another elections. I think most people were expecting Fordri to go for another elections. But, it seems Fordri backed out of that option due to pressure from Mlas who won win with small margins. It means that Fordri was not confident of winning the same number of seats again. So, instead, he went for the option of forming the Govt. But, he had already put himself in a tight corner by announcing that he would not take or give support to lotus or kongis. So, he had to do some drama. But, the biggest thing is that he eventually took the help of kongis. This is an albatross around his neck.
Now, lotus will keep saying that kongis and Fordri are same team with different tags to fool people. What can Fordri do now to counter this? Well, he can dump the kongis or force the kongis to dump him and go back to voters. But, before doing that he will try to earn some publicity by announcing all these schemes and doing some action. Its like ek dhin ka CM. Its just for a few days, so he can give maximum performance. Then, he can go to voters after dumping(or being dumped) by the kongis. This also helps him in parliamentary elections. His main brief seems to be to hurt the TsuNaMo. Being CM is just an incidental benefit, but his main job seems to be to take away the urbane support who were inclining towards NaMo.
So, the gameplan of Fordri is pretty simple and clear. What can lotus do? Well, it can expose the anti-national character of this new entity. Its funding, its ideology, its support to secessionist movements, its support to illegal foreign immigration, its support to terrorism ...etc. Lotus can also highlight the fact that Fordri does not talk about blackmoney.
Someone made a post that all this is not important in elections and that people only look at day-to-day issues. This is not really true. People do respond to various issues when they are properly communicated. People do vote based on ideology, patriotism, social issues, ...etc. I don't mean to say that day-to-day issues are not important. But if it is conveyed that a particular entity actually supports terrorists or gets foreign funds or wants to break bhaarath, I think most people will not support such entities regardless of the promises made by them. Infact, the rich mercenary elites may not give much importance to such topics and may be ready to compromise. But the lower and middle classes give a lot of importance to these issues. Even now, there is a reason why even Fordri's guys chant Vandhe Maathram. Because it has emotive appeal. This should not be under-estimated. So, if lotus can convey these issues effectively to people, people will respond positively. The recent 4-0 drubbing of kongis is the best example in this regard particularly in Raj. NaMo conveyed very effectively the perfidy of the Family starting from the chacha himself. Thats why even the erstwhile kongi votebanks deserted them.
Another issue is the development model of Fordri/Kongi and NaMo:
At an individual level, what does development mean?
It means money and power. Thats all, right? NaMo is promising development(Vikaas) in such a way that everyone in Bhaarath can develop and at the same time Bhaarath will become powerful and rich. This is supposed to be Guj model. There will be 24X7 bijli(electricity), good sadak(roads and other connectivity like internet) and proper supply of paani(water). For all this to be accomplished, people will have to be provided with employment. And NaMo is promising that. He missed no opportunity to convey that many people are flocking to Guj from other states for employment. So, infrastructure is provided and employment is provided. Thats Guj model.
What is the Fordri/Kongi model?
Subsidy and reservation. Fordri has promised subsidies. Kongis have promised reservation for jats. At individual level, it should not matter to a person whether he is getting money or power due to development or subsidy... due to merit or reservation. Kongis and Fordri are saying to people, "have fun at other expense. Take subsidy or reservation and have fun. If in the process, others are screwed, so be it(infact, so much more fun!)." They don't have any idea of providing people with employment. Their model is just to give freebies. Where will the money for this come from? Most likely from taxes, either directly or indirectly. And tariff on Alcohol will be seen as most attractive way of funding these freebies. In this model, infrastructure build up is not given a big attention. Knowing the kongis, even if they announce any infrastructure build up, it is just to line their pockets with corruption money during these projects. What this model does is that it bankrupts the country, creates unemployment, creates social tensions(due to partial treatment where one is pitted against the other), and leads to country going to dogs.
So, at individual level, both of them are offering power and money. But the difference is that NaMo's idea implicitly has a patriotic undercurrent. NaMo is saying,"sabka vikaas due to suraaj" i.e. everyone's development due to good governance. He is not pitting one group(class/caste/region) against the other. And he promising development, not subsidy or reservation. He is not against subsidy or reservation per say. So far, he has shown that he is not against subsidy or reservation as long as they are used in a targeted manner to help certain needy sections of society to bring them immediate relief. But, he views it as a crutch which has to be discarded at some stage. On the other hand, kongi/Fordri model is limited to providing only this crutch. There is no other idea. Even if one assumes that the kongi/Fordri are not corrupt, they are bankrupt in terms of ideas. Their model appeals to lowest inclinations of people. They want people to be selfish and screw everybody else to satisfy their own needs. NaMo is saying people can satisfy their needs while contributing positively for the country(i.e. suraaj) and society(i.e. sabka vikaas). NaMo's idea is win-win for country and people. Fordri/Kongi's idea is lose-win. In Fordri/Kongi scheme, people cannot win if country wins and country cannot win if people win.
People, in recent elections, have rejected this kind of Kongi politics. They want to live in a good country and good society where everyone can develop. People may be selfish inclinations. But people also have higher inclinations. People will be willing to work hard and even sacrifice for the country or society if they see that such sacrifice helps the country or society. People look towards the leadership for guidance. The problem with weak, inefficient, corrupt or anti-national leadership is that it fails to inspire people. When people see that rulers themselves are not interested in doing anything, everyone tries to get by in whatever way they can(even if it involves corrupt activities). On the other hand, if they have an inspiring leadership, people will do everything to better the country, society and their own lives. Thats the essential difference between kongis and NaMo.
Fordri is also inspiring people. He is inspiring non-political people to join up politics. Its good. It would have been better if he was not a foreign funded agent or if he had better model than mere subsidies or reservations. I am not against subsidy or reservation. But, they are just like first-aid. They are not permanent solutions. Moreover, Fordri seems to be doing whatever he is doing with an eye on parliamentary elections. Giving water in winter is easy. The real test will be in summer.
BTW, when Fordri's party guy wants Kashmir to secede, does he not know that if Kashmir secedes the dilli's people will have very hard time due to water shortage? Kashmir is the source of rivers in most of North Bhaarath. If that place is not in Bhaarath's control, then it can get very difficult for people.
When I first saw Fordri(in Anna's company), I also supported him. So, I can understand many people jumping on to his bandwagon right now. At that time, when I read theories about him in BR, I thought that they were extreme CTs. But now, I agree with them. I guess it takes some time for the things to sink in. So, I think people will take some time to realize. Honestly, it would have been very good if Fordri was not a foreign agent. Maybe, he still can take a u-turn and change that(which is not such a difficult thing because he seems to specialize in ditching his old partners once his job is done).
Who will lose more due to Fordri: Kongi or NaMo?
I think NaMo will not lose much. Some voters may get swayed but most will remain loyal. Fordri may dent a few, but I think largely he will be just a paper tiger. In places where kongis have an organization but are facing a rout, they can transfer their votes to Fordri.
The only places where Fordri can make any impact(like dilli) is if the local lotus(or any anti-kongi party) is seen as equally inept as kongis. Even then, it may be difficult for Fordri to be seen as viable option. So, Fordri can hope for a max of 30 seats in a most optimistic scenario. As Muraliravi saar's chart seems to show. Even in such a optimistic scenario, NaMo will not be dented much. Honestly, I think outside dilli(and perhaps, areas sorrounding dilli), Fordri will not have any impact. Even Blore and Mumbai may not welcome him much.
But what is coming out of all this is that the kongis are done and dusted in dhesh. NaMo is already successful in his mission of kongi mukth bhaarath.